Dodgers starter Dustin May left this afternoon’s outing against the Twins after one inning with elbow discomfort. After the game, manager Dave Roberts told the team’s beat that testing revealed a flexor pronator strain in his forearm/elbow area (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).
Roberts called a month-long absence “the floor” for the 25-year-old hurler. As first reported by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), May will receive a platelet-rich plasma injection. It’s not expected to require surgery, with Ardaya reporting (on Twitter) that May’s ulnar collateral ligament was not affected. Ardaya indicates the team is hoping for a four-to-six week recovery timetable if the rehab process goes as expected.
It’s mixed news for Los Angeles. There’s surely relief that May’s UCL is intact. He underwent Tommy John surgery two years ago, limiting him to 11 combined outings between 2021-22. Renewed ligament damage so quickly after that procedure could’ve raised real questions about May holding up as a starting pitcher. That fortunately won’t be the case.
In the shorter term, though, the Dodgers will now have to navigate at least the next month without one of their top arms. They’ve been without Walker Buehler since last summer’s Tommy John procedure. Depth starters Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove are on the IL; with May joining them, the Dodgers are down to a top four of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard.
That’s an excellent top three but Syndergaard has had a rough go in his first season in Dodger blue. The righty has an ERA just under 6.00 through eight starts. He’s showing excellent control but working with a career-low 92 MPH average velocity on his sinker. His 16.5% strikeout rate is a touch worse than last season’s personal-worst mark.
May’s injury seemingly ensures Syndergaard will continue to get regular run out of the rotation. It also presumably sets the stage for the return of top prospect Gavin Stone. The 24-year-old righty made a spot start for his MLB debut two weeks ago. He’s pitched eight times with Triple-A Oklahoma City this year, working to a 4.04 ERA with a quality 27.5% strikeout rate but an alarming 12.8% walk percentage over 35 2/3 frames. Dylan Covey, who soaked up four innings of relief of May this afternoon during his first major league appearance since 2020, has worked out of the Triple-A rotation this year. Non-roster depth options include prospect Bobby Miller and veteran Robbie Erlin.
Bout as good of news as possible – They were always going to need to find 3~4 down weeks for May, guess he found them himself today –
Great timing, I wouldn’t wanna go on that STL ATL TB trip right now as well!
Dodgers got an easy June and early July
5-5 on that trip would be spades
Here’s hoping for a quick and complete recovery for Dustin. The game is better when the best players are all healthy. Cheers buddy
I guess “May” isn’t his month after all.
Hope he bounces back. His stuff can be electric and fun to watch.
If it’s 6 weeks, we’re getting close to the All Star break. That could play a factor. Either by getting a start then a break or a longer break.
time for stone to “pick up” his play.
When they mean no baseball activity, does that also include MLB The Show?
Sadly yes If you use live rosters old york
Probably going to take longer than that. No pitcher with that injury has returned to MLB action in less than 3 months. He might start a rehab assignment after the All Star break. If he is back in Dodger blue before the middle of August it will be a miracle or complete stupidity that leads to a second TJ surgery.
Good diagnosis, but you’ll know more when you see the scans.
I don’t need to see his chart to know what has happened in the past. I am just going on the facts.
No pitcher has returned from an official MLB reported diagnosis of flexor pronator strain in less than 3 months. That was the diagnosis the Dodgers gave regarding May. Pitchers with this diagnosis may have been sent to a rehab assignment in less than that amount of time but have not made an appearance with their MLB team. That is bottom line.
As someone posted on the other thread about his injury, the mean or average recovery time is 128 days, so seeing him back in a Dodgers uniform before mid-August would require a miracle or a heavy dose of stupidity.
This is good info, thanks for posting
So your source for this prediction is someone posting on another thread? Or are you a Doctor specializing in sports medicine?
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5542103/
probably not as reputable a source, though
Got any linkage on that?
You also implied that the Dodgers medical staff might just be stupid. Twice. Or are you just trying to say you’re smarter about medical issues than they are? Either way, it seems you believe you’re smarter and better informed about May’s condition. Pardon my skepticism, but I really kind of doubt it.
Seems like the folks aren’t buying your Marcus Welby MD routine, Webby.
Thoughts?
Nice article, but while the results show almost 20% will need a TJ with 365 days of the injury, I wish they had data for someone like May who has already had a UCL reconstruction.
Here is the link he gave and he said its on page 17.
foreonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/31.-Rome…
You already have the linkage. It’s called MLB transactions. It lists every injury and the medical diagnosis the team gave MLB.
I implied the Dodgers front office may be stupid enough to send him back out there for a playoff drive. Hopefully they are looking out for his best interest long-term. If they are looking out for his long term, you won’t see him in a Dodger’s uniform before mid-August at the soonest.
I gave you the facts. No one has returned from that diagnosis sooner than 90 days. The median time is 128 days to return to their MLB team.
Here is the link given on that other post. foreonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/31.-Rome…
That info on how long is on page 17.
I get that you are a Dodger fan, and you hope that May is the new shortest recovery time ever but go argue with the facts. I can’t change them. They are what they are.
Not a doctor. I am just a baseball guy. These are the facts. They can buy into the facts, or they can remain ignorant of the facts. That is their choice. It won’t change the facts.
That would be great. They also don’t have data there on recovery time just for guys that have already had TJS. I would venture to guess that it is longer, not significantly shorter than the 128 day mean. But that would just be a guess.
I should have said no PITCHER has returned from that diagnosis sooner than 90 days. Several position players have returned with no time on the IL.
Maybe read the link I posted. It is from 2019 and it actually quotes that study that used data from 2010 to 2014. Look at page 16 for where it first quote from that study. On page 17 it quotes that study again giving the recovery times.
It also quotes other major studies. It’s fascinating reading. I was glad to see it on the other article about May’s injury.
It’s interesting that both articles, this one and the one earlier in the thread, both show the mean number as 128 days. I do believe the mean is better than the median because the median can be skewed by the outliers. But I also wonder if the recovery and rehab have advanced because the data on both articles are now more then 8 years ago?
As of today, no pitcher has returned from that official diagnosis sooner than 90 days. Maybe the mean is better today and maybe its not, but the minimum has not changed.
It’s actually the opposite. The mean is the straight average which can be skewed by outliers. Median can be better if there are outliers.
If the 42 days median is accurate there have been plenty of pitchers who have come back sooner than 90 days, and refuting the poster’s claims. Position players may skew this but they only make up 17% of the sample.
^^This.
Thank you for promoting some statistical sense. If nothing else, every medical case is different. I have no theories about what will happen to May, the severity of his injury or the prognoses. I am only hearing what’s been said so far about the injury and the anticipated recovery time. I also tend to believe the Dodgers medical professionals are a lot smarter and better informed about this than Some Guy on the Internet, and they have a helluva lot more at stake. I also have no reason to believe they will do something “stupid” with this or any other player, especially when stupid is being defined as something different than what Some Guy on the Internet says.
The 42 days is ALL players, not just pitchers. It includes position players that have returned with NO IL stint. 3 because it was not to their throwing arm at all. Median includes outliers, so it skews the mean or average.
If you take 1000 people have a net worth of $1 million and then add Jeff Bezos to the group, the median goes from $1 million to $129.699 billion. Does that tell the true story of the average in that group.
The REAL bottom line is that no PITCHER has ever returned from that diagnosis in less than 90 days. Not one.
He got is all wrong, so it’s NONsense.
Please tell me your line of work does not include anything numbers or stats related. You’re confusing median with mean (or average). If 1,000 people have a net worth of 1 million each and you add Jeff Bezos your median is still 1 million. Sheesh people.
Only 17% of the sample were position players. That means 111 pitchers and 23 position players. It is statistically impossible for your statement to be true given the numbers presented here. Yes, even if all position players had an IL stint of zero days. You can argue until your face turns blue but it won’t change math or stats.
What I did before retiring is spend 10 the last 12 years working for a MLB team in the scouting department. Before that I was a coach at the junior college and high school level. In the middle of that I owned a home improvement contracting business for a decade. All in all, 31 years in baseball.
Median is taking a set of numbers and after organizing them in numerical order, picking a number in that particular set that is in the middle. In a set of 2, its the middle point between the top and bottom numbers.
In my example ALL the numbers were either $1 million or Jeff Bezos
$1 million = $1 million
Jeff Bezos = $260.38 billion (I know his net worth is half that today. Divorce is a beotch)
The middle point or MEDIAN is $129.69 billion
Since you don’t know what all of the numbers are for any of the pitchers in that data set of this particular injury, you cannot determine median.
Mean or Average is adding them all the numbers in a set together and dividing by the number of numbers in the set.
1000x$1 million = $1 billion
Jeff Bezos – $260.38 billion
Total is $261.38 billion
Divided by 1001 = $261.1 million
It’s sad that you are actually trying to call me out on something you have absolutely no understanding of.
From the study:
Table 3
Mean number of days lost from play after a diagnosis of Forearm Flexor Strain in MLB and the minor leagues
Pitchers 128.8 days
Position Players 60.2 days
There were 111 pitchers and 23 position players in the major leagues whose injuries were included in that study from 2010 to 2014.
3 of those position players spent 0 time on the DL as it was called then, they were day to day. How do I know? I looked up MLB transactions from 2010 to 2014.
If you want info about every MLB transaction, subscribe to Sports Information Solutions. sportsinfosolutions.com/solution/baseball/ Used to be called BIS. It’s all there. Downloadable in spreadsheets.
The bottom line is this. No pitcher that has received that diagnosis has returned in less than 90 days. There is always the possibility that May returns in less than 90 days, but it’s never been done before, and he has had TJS in the past, so the probability is extremely low.
You did all that work to prove that you still don’t know what a median is. Congrats. You basically made an asss of yourself.
I’ll give you a hint, if you have 1,000 people with a net worth of a $1 million it is completely irrelevant what the net worth of the 1,001 person is when calculating the median. The median will always be $1 million. You’ve erroneously concluded that you take the mean of the only two outcomes in the example. I have no idea what made you do that.
Perhaps when you have a better grasp of what a median is you’d see how flawed your argument is given the research’s numbers. As it would be statistically impossible to make the claims that you’ve made. Until then have a good day.
It’s the Lake Woebegone method of statistical analysis.
I gave you the actual DEFINITION of both and examples from an actual math book.. Time to mute you. Stupid people do not deserve my time.
Mute THIS!
Smart people don’t WANT your time.
So you are saying you are not smart?
Watch the name calling, son
Not what I said.
You do you, buddy.
Linkage – sportsinfosolutions.com/solution/baseball/ Subscribe
Name calling = “Smart people don’t WANT your time”
I am retired, so how old ARE you?
“Stupid people do not deserve my time.”
That type of pompous stuff isn’t called for, At any age. I don’t expect everyone to agree with me. Neither do I expect to be called ‘stupid’, either for disagreeing with someone’s take, or vice versa.
I literally quoted your post.
It IS called for when they are consistently wrong and abusive in their posts. I posted the facts with receipts.
YOU chose to name call when you were not mentioned in my comment. That is on you.
Since you OBVIOUSLY wanted my time since you commented on MY post, I was simply asking if you were saying you were NOT smart.
You gave the definition of median and still don’t know what it is for a given set of numbers. You don’t know the concept of an outlier and how it impacts averages, and the purpose for a median.
If anyone should get muted it’s you. You’re retired and act this way?
“With age comes wisdom, but sometimes age comes alone.”
The irony of this guy calling other people stupid and not deserving of his time.
@web
What is even your point? That outliers exist? If a reporter is studying data in good faith, they’ll not only expect outliers, but have methods in place to take them into account. And their data would be a random selection, so having 1,000/1,001 participants with identical numbers would not only be statically impossible, but likely selection bias, and thrown out.
But humoring your example for a moment, median is ordering the data set from lowest to highest and taking the number in the middle of the data set. So, your data set would look something like this:
$1,000,000 <- Lowest total
… 499 people with $1m
$1,000,000 <- middle of the data set
… 499 people with $1m
$260,000,000,0000 <- Jeff Besos (highest)
So your median would be $1,000,000.
The main point is that according to data from Sports Info Solutions, no player that had that diagnosis has returned to the major leagues from the IL in less than 90 days. May is not going to blow that minimum IL time out of the water by 50=%. He will be out longer than 4-6 weeks.
The average time on the IL for that injury was 128 days in the study quoted. A little over 4 months. May could possibly be done for the season.
When there are only two different numbers in the data set then it’s the midpoint between the high and the low. It doesn’t matter if there are 1 or 1,000 that are $1.0 million. There are only two different numbers in the set. $1 mm and $260 B.
@disadvantage. Pointless to educate him. You can lead a horse to water…..Look at his reply. It’s like he decided to make up his own definition of what a median should be.
@mlbdodger – Point taken.
Because apparently, statisticians will look at the data and say, “Hmm, out of 1,001 participants, 1,000 have identical data points. Better ignore that trend, and wrap all 1,000 of those participants into just 1 data point! Also, this data set seems skewed, likely biased, and not representative of an entire population… better use it anyways!”
They should have shut him down last year instead of brining him in September. 4 more months of rest would have definitely helped
Tough opponents coming up on the schedule. However, if LA is ever gonna find out if Gavin Stone can live up to his pedigree, now is the time to find out. JMHO, it might be tough sledding initially, but I believe he’ll get through that and become a valuable #3 or #4 starter.
I have no confidence that Thor will still be in the rotation after the all-star break. LA ought to use Michael Bush as a trading chip and see if they can pry loose a veteran SP from one of the bottom dwellers. Patrick Corbin, anyone?
Corbin is definitely a hard pass. Might as well just move Shelby Miller into the rotation. I have to think Pepiot should be nearing a return. His injury wasn’t that serious, and it happened during ST.
Every time I hear of a starting pitcher going down, I think: Is this where Eduardo Rodriguez will be traded to? In the case of the Dodgers, I think not. The Dodgers are coming out from the Trevor Bauer era and likely are doing stronger character checks on players. I suspect by Rodriguezgoing AWOL last season he won’t pass heavy scrutiny. The payroll is already high and Rodriguez is less likely to opt out of his contract in LA than he would in Detroit. That would add payroll to the Dodgers and limit versatility.
Friedman will certainly be busy at the trade deadline! Starting pitcher and a shortstop who can hit more than .150 are top priorities!
I know this won’t sound like I am huge Dodger fan because of the sarcasm but I go back to the late 60s…but why should the Dodgers worry about a crappy #4 and #5 starter (Thor and whoever) when we have 9 of our 13 hitters batting .098, .117, .182, .186, .195, .211, .221, and .227…ugh!.
Maybe to keep games close by limiting the other teams’ offenses, scotty?
Just a thought.
The Dodgers also lead the league in walks and have the second highest ISO in the majors. They are a team built to hit homers, not slappy singles. Dodgers are also dead last in BABIP, but still lead the NL in runs scored. The offense is fine.
Maybe in future surgeries, attach two or even three tendons to the ailing elbow. You know, for the inevitable ‘snap’.
It’s mean to drive over the median.
Statistics say that 100% of players, including pitchers, return when their clubs deem it time to do so. And none of those clubs refer to fan-driven comment threads.
So I’ll see what the Dodgers do.