In an offseason light on impact trade activity, the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays pulled off one of the biggest swaps. Arizona’s left-handed hitting outfield surplus and Toronto’s catching depth materialized in the deal that sent Gold Glove caliber outfielder Daulton Varsho to Toronto for rookie backstop Gabriel Moreno. That duo were the main players involved, but Arizona also added right-handed balance to the lineup with the inclusion of veteran left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Gurriel has a longer MLB track record than either of Varsho or Moreno but was by far the tertiary player in terms of trade value. He’d been a good but not elite hitter throughout his time with the Jays. In 2022, the Cuban-born outfielder put up a .291/.343/.400 batting line with five home runs over 493 plate appearances. That offensive output checked in 14 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. Paired with average defensive marks in a corner outfield spot, Gurriel has been worth between one and two wins above replacement in every season of his career (although he would’ve been on a better pace in 2020 if that schedule hadn’t been truncated).
There was no question Gurriel was a viable major league player. He’d been a near average regular for the entirety of his career. Due roughly $5.4MM in his final season before free agency — a clause in the contract he signed with Toronto after defecting from Cuba allows him to reach the open market next winter even though he’ll be a little shy of six years of MLB service — he had trade value but not an overwhelming amount.
Arizona anticipated an immediate downgrade in their outfield from Varsho to Gurriel, a tradeoff they were willing to make to install Moreno behind the plate for the next six seasons. While that could still play out, Gurriel has somewhat surprisingly been the far more productive of the two outfielders through the first couple months of the year. Varsho has started his Toronto tenure with a .217/.294/.382 showing through 42 contests. Over his first 39 games in the desert, Gurriel is off to a career-best .310/.373/.552 pace. His seven homers in 161 plate appearances already tops last year’s mark and puts him on pace to beat his career-best 21 longballs from two years ago.
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored before this season, injuries could certainly have played a role in Gurriel’s up-and-down results from 2022. He’d bookended a very strong run between June and July with dismal numbers in May and August. A hamstring strain cut his season short in early September and, likely of greater import on his production, he underwent surgery on the hamate bone in his left hand following the season. Hand and wrist injuries can sap a hitter’s strength; if Gurriel were playing through that issue for a while, it’d be understandable why his power production was at a career-worst level.
Better health is a plausible explanation for some of Gurriel’s improved production but doesn’t account for all of it. He’s also working with a more dialed-in plate approach than he has in years past. Through play Wednesday, he’s sitting on a personal-low 14.9% strikeout rate and drawing walks at a career-best 8.1% clip.
While Gurriel has always had good bat-t0-ball skills, he has taken things to a new level in the early going by being more selective. He has offered at 45.8% of the pitches he’s seen, the lowest rate of his career by three percentage points. Gurriel is translating that approach into consistent contact. He has gotten the bat on the ball on an excellent 85.8% of his swings, almost six points better than last year’s personal-high mark. Pitchers have been unable to beat him in the zone, with Gurriel making contact nearly 92% of the time he goes after a would-be strike. He’s putting the ball in play more consistently without sacrificing any of his contact authority.
That’s an ideal combination for a hitter. Gurriel is 29th among 171 qualified batters in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging. That plays even without elite defense in the outfield. It’s among the reasons Arizona sits at 25-19 with a +16 run differential and looks like a legitimate contender for a Wild Card spot in an uncertain National League playoff picture.
A career showing couldn’t be timed better for Gurriel personally. He’s headed to the open market for the first time since he was a 23-year-old amateur signee. He’ll do so in advance of his age-30 season and as part of a free agent class that looks very thin on position player talent. Among potential impending free agents with 100+ plate appearances, only Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier and Max Muncy (who’s controllable for 2024 via $10MM club option) have a higher wRC+ than Gurriel’s 148.
Gurriel isn’t going to be the #3 free agent position player in the class but he has a chance to hit his way into a solid multi-year deal. Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto topped $35MM on contracts with opt-out possibilities as bat-first corner outfielders. Both players had durability concerns that aren’t there with Gurriel. The five years and $75MM secured by Andrew Benintendi feels lofty given Benintendi’s defensive advantage and youth (he signed going into his age-28 season), but Gurriel looks like the superior hitter.
At the very least, Arizona’s new acquisition has a chance to position himself as an interesting mid-tier free agent. It remains to be seen if he can keep up his present pace over six months but he looks healthier than he had last season and is making excellent swing decisions. It’s a better start than the D-Backs could’ve expected and a key development in the club’s strong start to the year.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Varsho is a versatile player but he became so overrated with how much everybody loved him. Dbacks made out extremely well getting their catcher of the future for a guy who’s biggest asset is defense
Varsho is a 5 war player based mainly on his defense, if that bat comes around even a little bit, he’s a 7 or 8 war player, with 30 30 potential
WAR is such an arbitrary stat.
Its an opinion,contained in a vacuum, adjusted based on position and then held up to a mirror to see if player X is worth more or less.then said image and then assigned a value.
Maybe so, but his defense is valuable and a 25 25, 30 30 center fielder is valuable no matter what war says.
30/30 players have far better obp and averages than varshos. Even a 25/25 season is tough for a player with his slash.
With his obp getting 30 sb would probably be a
detriment since he’ll probably be caught 7-10 times and that makes his obp look even worse
Caught stealing and OBP aren’t related at all.
His OBP does not decline if he is caught stealing
OBP is On Base Percentage which is calculated once he reaches base via a hit or BB/HBP
WAR….. huh….what is it good for? Absolutely nothing
The problem with WAR coming from defensive results is that it’s hard to project defensive results. At a quarter way mark in the season, Varsho is not contributing much positive WAR. He’s been an average defensive player (0 OAA) and he’s been awful offensively.
Is John Mozeliak reading this??
Probably not. What would he learn?
I remember being ripped apart on here the day that trade went down for calling Gurriel a potential all star, and saying that the D Backs absolutely stole him in that trade. Wonder where those people are now..
ripped apart?
Very brave and bold calling a 800 ops guy in his free agent year a potential all star. You are vindicated now. I hope they come forth and apologize.
Jays got fleeced on this trade. Moreno should never have been traded. I would rather they traded 3 or 4 other top prospects than giving up Moreno. That’s not a knock on Varsho just a fact that Moreno’s value was worth 5 or more Varshos.
Agreed. I didn’t like this trade for the Jays as soon as it was announced. They had already brought Kiermaier on board, which made Varsho redundant. The DBacks were wise to sell so high on Varsho.
I thought this was a great deal just based on the length of control of Moreno. Gurriel is just the proverbial gravy.
The moral of the story is to get players who are in their walk year. They are more motivated.
Both players have performed well for the D’backs and Varsho has done well in Toronto. This seems to be one of the rare “win/win” trades for both sides
I agree with this analysis over the other comments on this thread.
At the time of the trade, the Jays had an abundance of catchers and the Dbacks had a bunch of young, left-handed hitting OF. Both teams wanted impact return on a trade. For the Jays, the only tradeable catcher with impact was Moreno. For the Dbacks, the only young, left-handed OF with impact they were willing to trade was Varsho..
But for the Dbacks, their priority was for a right-handed hitting OF to balance the extreme left-handedness of their lineup generally and their OF specifically. So I don’t think trading for one of the Jays’ catchers was very high on their priorities. I think the Dbacks had trade discussions with multiple other teams to get a young, controllable, impact right-handed OF, but nothing materialized so the Dbacks circled back to the Jays to get controllable, impact Moreno coupled with right-handed OF Gurriel. In that two player package the Dbacks got their top priority and the Jays got their priority, so I think it’s a win-win trade.
It’s only May. Let’s see the numbers at the end of the year.
Considering that he’s already hit more HRs in his 56 PAs in May than all of last season, he already has superior numbers to last season in at least one sense.
That’s before considering we’re past what would be considered the point of stabilization for plate discipline metrics, and every single one of his plate discipline peripherals are superior to last season (which were his best PD results to date).
20 XBHs in 161 PAs this season compared to 37 XBHs in 493 PAs last season? And it’s not like his BABIP and HR/FB% numbers are dissimilar to his historic norms (aside from last season, while recovering from an injury notorious for sapping power); this looks much more like a legitimate offensive breakthrough than a career year flash in the pan.
His defense and baserunning could definitely still use some work (I personally was hoping that his time with Dave McKay would be a little more impactful in those areas, and I’m sure the DBacks were too), but the majority of a player’s value comes from their bat anyways.
Many DBacks fans viewed Lourdes as more of a reclamation project than a key piece in the deal; it looks like he’s making good on the projection. Even if he slows down from this rate (he more than likely will), he looks like he could be worthy of a Qualifying Offer.
highheat,
Can the Dbacks, by his contract, extend a QO? I thought his contract called for him to be an unrestricted Free Agent. Does a QO constitute a limit on “free”? I think the Dbacks could bid on his services in a new contract, but so could all 29 other teams if they so choose. A QO might deter some teams from bidding on his services? Therefore, I thought the Dbacks best move would be to trade him at the Trading Deadline to get something.
Every player reaching free agency that hasn’t received a Qualifying Offer is eligible to be extended one; they can only be offered a QO one time, though.
Although, if he were dealt mid-season, he wouldn’t be eligible to be extended one, since it doesn’t apply to players dealt during the year (in which case he’d be eligible next time he reaches FA).
highheat
I reread the CBA Article XX(B) and I don’t think the Dbacks can extend Gurriel a QO.
Article XX(B)(1) Eligibility specifically says the player must have 6 years of service time and Article XX(B)(2) Procedure specifically says if the player does Not meet the Article XX(B)(1) criteria they can sign with any club ‘without restrictions and qualifications”. article B2 also says if they become a free agent by other means, I.e. for Gurriel by a contract provision.
The “restrictions and qualifications” include a QO which is defined in that section. Therefore, the Dbacks cannot extend Gurriel a QO because he only has 5 years of service time and because he has that special clause in his contract.
IF my understanding of Article XX(B)(1) &(2) above is correct, then the Dbacks best move might be to trade Gurriel at the Trade Deadline to get something of value for him since they can’t get QO compensation.
I don’t see the Dbacks bidding for Gurriel on an expensive long term contract when they have so much quality, cheap, young OF depth. They should spend that money elsewhere…Pitching.
I may be incorrect, but from what I’m seeing Article XX(B) seems to be about minor league free agent deals and their eligibility for retention bonuses if they don’t reach the 26-man.
Here’s the MLB glossary link on the QO:
mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer
I’m inclined to think that they’d deal him as well, because prospects further along in their development (and possibly more than one) are generally preferable to compensation picks.
Article XX(B) etc. are part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). So I went to the MLBPlayers Association web site to see the exact rule “MLBPlayers.com” 2022-2026 Basic Agreement.
Article XX(B) is about Free Agency, primarily for MLB players, but also explains how Free Agency works when a player signs a Minor League contract.
Cot’s Contracts provides specifics about Gurriel’s contract and specifically says that “ Gurriel will become a XX(B) free agent upon expiration of contract after 2023 season”. So, again, since Gurriel will only have 5 years of MLB service time, he is exempt from the provisions of Article XX(B) (1) and (2), i.e. he cannot be offered a Qualifying Offer, or have any other restrictions or qualifications, but instead abides by the unique provision of his contract that says he will be an unrestricted Free Agent at the end of 2023.
I know this was controversial even when he was a Blue Jay, but those who best know the 2022-2026 Basic Agreement language understand that Gurriel must reach Free Agency with no strings attached, i.e. no QO.
I’m talking about all players involved. It does look good for Arizona but you can’t judge an off-season trade in May.
I agree in general, but the way Toronto has been utilizing Varsho puts them in a bit of a hole on a WAR basis.
As it stands right now, Gurriel is at 1.1 fWAR (1.5 bWAR) to Varsho’s 0.5 fWAR (1.0 bWAR) while mostly playing the same position. And even Moreno’s 0.7 fWAR (1.3 bWAR) outpaces Varsho currently, and he’s playing a position where it’s easier to accrue value defensively (and with more team control).
The Blue Jays could make up some ground in value by giving Daulton extended run time in CF, but until that point in time it look more and more like the DBacks made out like bandits in this deal.
KK rarely makes it through a whole season unscathed. Varsho will get his run in center. That was always part of the equation for the Jays.
From the get go I wanted Lars Nootbar for Kirk/Moreno as a framework deal. The Jays would have had to add a little extra but that was the deal to make. I have feeling Lars was a no go or the extra peice they wanted was too much. Then the team went to a Oneal for Jansen deal IMO and that did not work out and that’s when the cards signed there OUT-CATCH-DHER or whatever. Imo I think both team would like this one back to make a different deal.
I don’t hate Varsho and keep in mind he’s going from the most southwestern team that no1 follows to the most northeastern team that has a huge following in a different country. For me before the trade I say Varsho as a slightly above average bat that is good but not great at alot of things. I think he will get pitched to here and if he figures it out he may well be a great player. BUT have slightly above average numbers in the desert means u are likely to fall back a little when u leave there. If he took an extra walk here or there and got an extra hit every 5 or 6 days then we’re talking and there something to build on.
You just don’t trade baseball’s too prospect who is likely a top 20 catcher today and is more then likely a top 5 in 3 years. For me it made too much sense for 2 teams with top prospects in areas they had an abundance of talent in while the other team didn’t to trade Moreno for Carroll. Maybe not 1 for 1 but u get the idea
Me too. The reporting I heard was the Jays offered Jansen for Nootbaar and the Cardinals countered with Jansen for Helsley. Jansen was not going to get Nootbaar (I think they even said no to a Nootbaar/Murphy framework)but I wonder if having other options on the table made the Jays hold out on offering Kirk or Moreno in that deal.
The balance the Blue Jays needed wasn’t simply left handed bats. They needed good swing decision/plate approach in that left handed bat. That’s why they were interested in Nootbaar and Nimmo. It’s also why they continue to stick by Biggio despite disappointing results. And also why when they didn’t get that in the OFs they did land, they took it where they could by getting Belt despite him being no sure thing and a less clean positional fit. Varsho is not that but I think the Jays are hoping to turn him into that. I just wonder if the price they paid in the end for a guy they are hoping to turn into Nootbaar is a price they could have just had Nootbaar for. Varsho had huge trade value so it’s not like it was grossly mismatched value or anything. I just think a lesser trade could have got them something that had more impact without trading away the one long term impact piece they had. Garrett Mitchell was on my radar too and wouldn’t have cost Moreno.
The Cardinals were never going to trade Noot. Period. There was no framework for that kind of deal.
It sure doesn’t sound like it. And I wouldn’t either if I were a GM. But it looked like they might be able to afford to in the same way Arizona was able to part with Varsho. If they got equivalent value at a position of need, it’s not like they don’t have a bunch of options for the outfield. On that note, the Jays are kind of in need of a right handed outfielder. O’Neill perhaps? It seems like the Cardinals pretty much just need pitching and maybe still a catcher? Jays don’t really have surplus pitching ready now. Though O’Neill can’t have a ton of trade value right now. Seems the roster spot for Walker or to fit all the other outfielders (or infielders pushed to the outfield by other infielders) is more valuable to the team right now. He’d make for a decent platoon partner for Varsho and give the Jays a nice fourth outfielder and bench bat.
It’s interesting to say that it’s surprising that Arizona has received more production. Gurriel has been a good hitter for a long time. Varsho is a breakout candidate, but has never hit well and there is a chance he never will. He had a .298 xWOBA last year. It shouldn’t be surprising that his wOBA this year is .297 so far.
What is surprising is that Varsho was the best defensive player in the league last year and has moved down the defensive spectrum this year and hasn’t been particularly good. Not bad by any stretch, but not notable in any way. It seems like he struggles with reads off the bat which I guess is understandable when playing a new position. But when you see the defensive results from last year, I was expecting to see a more fluid looking athlete. His movements are so choppy and his throwing mechanics are really weird for an outfielder.
In defense of Varsho’s defense (haha), much of his value last season came from his range, and being that he’s still relatively new to the OF and LF is the position with which he has the least experience, it’s not surprising that he’s struggling with his reads.
And his arm strength was never a strength (haha again) even as a C, but he still had a solid pop time behind the plate and great accuracy from the OF with a quick release. Part of that is getting himself in the optimal position to accomplish all of those things.
Is the lack of familiarity with LF what you’re seeing with those choppy movements? And if so, can a dramatic improvement on results be expected when he actually is getting good reads?
Yeah, I do expect that he’ll start to make better reads. But on the range issue, it’s based on the reads because he’s not an elite sprint speed guy. That’s a part of the choppiness I mean. It’s like he never gets up into high gear. He runs with short choppy steps that make it look like he’s fast but he has to take three steps to cover the ground a normal outfielder at top speed is only taking two. Great for a sport like football where quickness and direction change are important but not the best way to cover ground from point A to B. And that’s part of my concern with this trade. Ultimately, he’s not going to be playing the position you normally just put a good hitter to go stand there and watch the game. He’s likely ticketed for CF where it can take the pressure off the bat, but his raw tools don’t really profile in CF. He doesn’t have the sprint speeds most CFs have and his throwing is so bizarre. I don’t recall ever seeing an outfielder start his throwing motion by lifting the ball straight up over his head. He seems like a guy who can Johnny hustle his way into making it work in CF without the typical requisite tools, but my gut watching him play is that last year’s defensive performance didn’t actually set a floor for what to expect of him going forward. That’s difficult to swallow given the other part of what they were buying was a project bat already in his arb years.
Offensively, he’s a guy with not very good bat to ball skills and a terrible plate approach that they are hoping to turn into a high OBP slugger. He’s a good bet for it, but the Jays haven’t had a great track record of success with this. They get guys with big power and a bunch of swing and miss and think that it’s easy to teach them to let the ball travel deeper and see the pitch longer and you’ll chase less and still be on time to hit the ball hard. They’ve changed the shape of some guys like Gurriel and Grichuk without making them better. Varsho has been even more aggressive at the plate this year and making similarly miserable quality of contact. He’s chasing about the same but whiffing more when he does. He’s swinging more in the zone which should be a good thing, but it hasn’t led to better contact.
One thing I find a bit amusing and annoying is that this trade seemed hubristic on the Jays’ part. Almost like they targeted Arizona as a club who leaves a lot of “developmental meat on the bone”. They’ve picked off some pitching from them in the past. Most notably Robbie Ray. The kind of transformation they are hoping for takes time so it’s not like Varsho is a lost cause, but if that was indeed their mentality and they basically failed to get out of Gurriel what they hoped for and gave him away only for the D’Backs to immediately unlock it in him, it‘s kind of an egg on your face outcome.
The trade was worth it just for Moreno. Gurriel has been a pleasant surprise, especially with Thomas and McCarthy struggling early on.
I’m still not that upset about giving up Gurriel, especially with the additional control that they have over Varsho. They made a baseball trade that improved other parts of the team. Moreno could really hurt though. Even if he never develops power, he’ll always be a high floor player with his contact skills. He’s already a well above average hitting catcher, and if that keeps improving it’ll be an easy trade win for Arizona, unless Varshos bat continues to improve. I have my doubts he will be anything more than he is, even if that is also an incredibly high floor player.
The upside so far for Varsho is he’s leading the majors in bunt attempts/hits from the clean up spot *facepalm
Crazy Hair Boi is going to have a good payday this offseason if he keeps this up.
I want to congratulate everyone in the Comments section. This was an entire discussion without people calling each other names or otherwise demeaning everybody. This is the way a Comments section is supposed to look.
Thank you.