The Reds have committed to a key member of their rotation. Cincinnati announced Tuesday evening they’ve signed Hunter Greene to a six-year deal covering the 2023-28 seasons and containing a club option for 2029. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee, including a $2MM buyout on a $21MM option for the ’29 season. The deal also contains various escalators and awards bonuses that could push the total earnings to $96.2MM. Greene is a CAA client.
The salary structure breaks down as follows:
- $2MM signing bonus
- $1MM salary in 2023
- $3MM in 2024
- $6MM in 2025
- $8MM in 2026
- $15MM in 2027
- $16MM in 2028
- $21MM club option with $2MM buyout in 2029
Greene entered this season with exactly one year of major league service after breaking camp with the team last season. The deal buys out his final two pre-arbitration seasons, all three arbitration years and at least one free agent year with an option for a second.
The 23-year-old righty was selected by the Reds with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft. Though he was drafted as a two-way player, he dropped the offensive portion of his game while in the minors and has been entirely focused on pitching. He required Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2019 but that did little to diminish his tremendous prospect stock. He still had his trademark triple-digit heater and wipeout slider when he returned. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 but Greene fared well in his return to competitive ball the year after. He posted a 3.30 ERA in 106 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 31.7% of batters faced while walking 8.9%.
He was selected to the club’s 40-man roster after that season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, but it wasn’t clear if the club would carry him on their Opening Day roster. In the end, Greene did indeed make the club out of camp, sticking with them all year long apart from an August injured list stint and subsequent rehab assignment. He made 24 starts in the big leagues, logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.44 ERA. He struck out 30.9% of batters faced, walked 9% of opponents, and got grounders at a 29.3% clip. It wasn’t a completely dominant showing, but it was a solid debut for a 22-year-old getting his first taste of the big leagues.
Greene is off to a similar beginning to the season in 2023. Through four starts and 17 innings, he owns a 4.24 ERA. He’s punched out just under 31% of opponents while generating swinging strikes on a strong 13.5% of his offerings. It’s little surprise Greene has missed plenty of bats with a fastball that averages north of 99 MPH. Home runs were his main concern last year, as his modest ground ball numbers translated into a lofty 1.72 homers allowed per nine innings. To his credit, Greene has allowed just one longball thus far in 2023.
If he can consistently keep the ball in the yard, it’s not hard to envision him sticking at the top of a rotation. Few young pitchers can match Greene’s raw arm strength and he’s long shown solid control for a young flamethrower. Greene has handled left and right-handed batters in his brief big league time as well. Between him and fellow top ten pick Nick Lodolo (plus mid-rotation grounder specialist Graham Ashcraft), the Reds have the nucleus of an excellent rotation they hope to lead them out of their ongoing rebuild.
Greene had been on a trajectory to reach arbitration for the first time after 2024 and reach free agency after 2027. The Reds tack on two years of club control while leaving him an opportunity to hit the open market at a relatively young age. Greene would be on track to hit free agency headed into his age-30 season if the Reds exercise their option. He locks in strong earnings to safeguard against injury or performance risk while retaining the possibility of a significant free agent deal down the line.
The $53MM guarantee is the second-largest for a pitcher with between one and two years of big league service. Spencer Strider set the record last October with a six-year, $75MM deal. Greene falls short of that mark but didn’t have the kind of rookie season the Atlanta hurler put together in 2022, when he worked to a 2.67 ERA with an eye-popping 38.3% strikeout percentage in 131 2/3 innings. Greene’s deal easily checks in second in the service group, with Madison Bumgarner’s decade-old $35MM extension representing the record mark until Strider put pen to paper.
Cincinnati didn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract beyond this season. Option buyouts for the likes of Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers and Curt Casali represented the Reds’ only commitments. There’s plenty of breathing room and obvious motivation for the Reds to start committing to core players. Speculatively speaking, players like Lodolo, Ashcraft, Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India could be next on the front office’s list of extension targets.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Reds and Greene had agreed to a six-year, $53MM extension and reported the option value. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the contract could max out at $96.2MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the salary and escalator specifics.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Nice deal for both, I see it as a win/win already. Go get ’em Hunter!
Seems like a gamble just to keep potential arbitration salaries lower for a guy with no track record and an era over 4. Feels like the Reds should have put up a little more money but gotten more options for his first 3-4 FA years.
What decade is this? ERA does a terrible job of telling you how good a pitcher is at run prevention (especially using ERA by itself). He’s running a 30% K rate against 7% BB and has a FIP- of 54 so far this season and throws insane gas. The Reds got a steal here.
But what about his win-loss record? /s
ERA is still vastly better than K or BB rates, FIP isn’t bad but the math is still fuzzy and fails to predict actual success with anything close to scientific accuracy. The major confounding variables I see here are the Red’s hitter friendly stadium and independent evaluations of their defense, which I honestly have no idea if it’s good or bad.
Congratulations on using peripherals to convince people Tyler Mahle was an ace though, that was definitely a steal of a trade.
@raregok7s: A FIP- of 54 you say ???? Well, hot dang. And if you could explain what that means in clear plain English, I’ll give ya a kudos.
Pitchers like him are exciting but age like milk left in a 100 degree car.
Calling someone out for using ERA, then using a sample size of 17 ip…
He’s got GREAT stuff, but doesn’t seem to know how to pitch and it’s been a couple of DECADES, since I’ve seen the Reds make a pitcher better.
Well his FIP last season was on par with his ERA. His exit velocity is around 90 mph and guys are rocking a 45%+ hard contact rate so we will see if the Reds get a “steal” here.
He definitely throws “gas” but he also throws it often which doesn’t bode well for staying healthy either. Typically guys who rock a 55% fastball rate don’t stay healthy and then factoring in he’s throwing a power slider to boot.
Fielding Independent Pitching, adjusted for park and run environment. FIP removes batted ball luck from a pitcher’s run prevention by only considering the pitcher’s effectiveness at striking batters out and avoiding BBs and HRs.
Personally I always thought guys throwing lots of sliders were more troublesome than fastballs injury wise (granted he throws both like you said). May be wrong. He wouldn’t have a super high FIP because he strikes everyone out so I’m actually a little surprised it isn’t even lower but it is lower than his era a tad. I like looking up hard contact personally. I don’t buy FIP.
Same K rate with a higher walk rate (9%) and around league average FIP- (104). K rate and walk rate stabilize pretty quickly for pitchers, but you make a good point when it comes to FIP. Very volatile in the early going. The eye test gives me hope he can sustain it, but only time will tell.
I don’t know what you’re talking about in that second paragraph. Do you have any data to back up what you’re saying about fastball/slider rate and injuries?
You decide
FIP
Fielding Independent Pitching converts a pitcher’s three true outcomes into an earned run average-like number. The formula is (13*HR+3*(HBP+BB)-2*K)/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2) to put it on the same scale as earned run average.
Defense does not impact FIP. This is a formula of K’s, BB’s , HBP’s and HR’s…..nothing else
ERA
Earned runs/(Innings pitched/9)
Better defense can help keep ERA down. Yielding earned runs or preventing them encompasses everything from inducing a double play grounder to keeping the ball in the park, every kind of way to reach base and everything in between
Era is not a terrible measure of run prevention because it is by definition run prevention. It will never be a terrible measure though it can be misleading especially for relievers. It is a solid stat among other solid stats and anyone who doesn’t acknowledge that is indoctrinated and biased. Is it the best, maybe not. Is it better than some stats (even FIP), many think it is. Results matter.
Castillo, Gray, just to start a list
@raregokus I could have looked that up buddy, but you specifically typed “FIP- of 54″…so unless there were typos, it looks you gave me a generic definition of just “FIP” which is scaled to resemble ERA. “FIP-” must be a completely different stat, because a value of 54 is not scaled to ERA. Again, if you can explain what a “FIP- of 54” means in layman terms, I’ll buy you a beer along with those kudos.
I’ve seen some interviews where coaches talk about how hard sliders are on a pitcher’s arm… also seen plenty of evidence with slider heavy pitchers experiencing a lot of arm trouble but that may be confirmation bias.
Mario Soto
I explained what the minus was. It’s adjusted for park and run environment, with average at 100. Learn to read.
So no data then?
Ricky Nolasco loves analytics guys. He made a lot of money because of them.
What still doesn’t quite make logical sense to my thick neanderthal brain is that FIP is scaled to look like ERA, yet earned runs do not factor into the FIP formula. So then how do you tell the story in layman’s terms? With ERA it’s easy; a 4.50 ERA means your pitcher gives up four and a half runs on average, per nine innings pitched. But if the same pitcher sports a 3.90 FIP, you can’t say he “really” only gave up an average of 3.9 runs per nine innings, because earned runs aren’t even factored into the FIP equation!!!! So what bloody hell is FIP trying to say then??? In that regard, “FIP-” actually is a helleva lot more useful metric instead of just plain old idiotic FIP, in my humble backward opinion.
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
FIP Constant = lgERA – (((13*lgHR)+(3*(lgBB+lgHBP))-(2*lgK))/lgIP)
In the long run, FIP and ERA will be very close together.
FIP- scales a pitcher’s FIP against the league average. 100 is league-average. Greene’s FIP- 54 is 46% better than league average. His FIP is 2.49. His career ERA is 4.42, FIP 4.15, FIP- 98. All said and done he is an average to below average pitcher so far.
Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, Wade Miley…
I give him the same contract in The Show lol
Safe to project that he wont lose velocity and, although it’s rare, his stuff will probably improve towards the end of the contract. He’ll stay consistent and as command and control gets better, he’ll be better in terms of ERA+ as the seasons go along
Unlikely he will ever be a Cy Young candidate or elite ace, but probably will avoid injuries and be a solid, dependable starter in the 3.50 to 4.40 range most seasons, and 3.20 to 3.40 in prime years
Yea, I’d honestly be happy with anyone pulling a 4.1 era in that stadium against some reasonably quality competition (Brewers, Cards, sometimes Cubs). I just think it’s a big gamble for a mid to back end pitcher with a short track record when they’re only getting 1 FA year and a 1 year option at something around market value.
You think he doesn’t lose velocity between now and 2029, and also doesn’t get injured? Good luck with that.
@Camden Yeah you sound so confident about your supposed psychic ability to peer into the future and tell us how these players will turn out. You may have ran 6,982 computer simulations of entire baseball seasons but remember the menu is not the meal, and the map is not the terrain. And I would suspect you’re not going to be around when your prognostications turn out wrong, so any accountability on your behalf will not occur anyway. Such is life, I guess…
@Camden how is it safe to say he won’t lose velocity and he ll probably avoid injuries?? He is exactly the type of pitcher who usually gets hurt and loses velocity. If either happen few pitchers like him adapt and change their style effective like say Frank Tannana had.
Do you try and post opinions completely opposite of reality??
He really does. Some of the most ridiculously silly takes on here, but he’s a Mets fan so you have to be patient I guess.
He could always be a dominant reliever potentially if he doesn’t improve as a starter. That said his first year was solid for a rookie and he pitches in Cincy. Not everyone comes up dominating. We are getting too used to that being the case.
Why do you think someone with Camden in his title is a Mets fan? What is the relevance. anyway. I happen to agree with your earlier comment, BTW.
Tigers, no he isn’t, because his velo does not come from stuff or from youthful life, but from his core, and that doesn’t change. That velo should always be there. He may even add velo once stuff fills out age 26 to 28. After 28, he should still be sitting 97 to 100 range
The core doesn’t change. The stuff looks to be still developing, but he doesn’t really need it. He doesn’t rely on life and stuff, but mainly the inner core
Sid, you’re the one who actually has no idea what’s going on, or how to project anything
It must be terrible to live in a world where you dont have any real idea what’s happening
I wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy
Sure, I could be wrong about Greene, he’s a mildly more difficult pitcher to project, but usually I’m right. From time to time there is someone who defies projections and goes a way you never expected
I routinely get trashed by the mob for my assessments only to be proven correct years later
You’re the latest in a long line of people who call me an idiot, say I’m crazy, only to be proven wrong ultimately
Sid, I’ll tell you about Vaughn Grissom. He’s not a good prospect. He will not stick in the league
You should not get too excited and hopeful about him
Right now he’s riding what little youthful energy he has but once it wears off he’s left with a slow, heavy core
He will not be able to survive the league probably as early as next season once the young juice wears off
But go ahead live in agony being hopeful about Grissom rather than understanding that he won’t be any good
I was content in the understanding going into the season Carrasco was done and the Mets bullpen is terrible, and that you can’t really rely on David Peterson or Megill for many innings
It’s better to think realistically than blindly hope something works out
Yeah because some guy comes in with the username fulton283 and that means he’s a Braves fan referencing Fulton County Stadium
Ok, I could see Wrigley implying the Cubs, that’s not a common surname, but Camden is more common name
@Camden, he threw 337 pitches 100+ MPH last season. The highest season total ever. And every pitcher just below him on list had careers marred with injury. Regardless of your assumption and speculating that he uses his “inner core”, history does not look favorable for him. For his sake I hope that is not the case but odds seem to favor arm troubles in his future. And regardless if one is using their “inner core” they are also using their arm and that much stress on an arm takes its toll. I’m sorry you do not like physiology but it is what it is.
Tigers, velocity doesn’t cause injury, mechanics does
Although you never know, Greene has sound mechanics and profiles as lower injury risk
One or two bad pitches where the mechanics are off can cause an injury, so it’s always possible any pitcher can get injured
Yes bad mechanics are bad for an arm. As is the very act of throwing. It is a violent motion that puts stress on all the soft tissues and joints of an arm be it the shoulder, elbow, and even the wrist. Human arms have not evolved to repetitively throw things as hard as physically possible, it puts immense stress on everything that makes up an arm.
The reason somebody like Tylor Megill develops shoulder fatigue is not the fact that he throws 97
It’s his inner mechanics. The mechanics are dictating that energy is not flowing regularly into the shoulder
He loses 5 points of velo inning to inning sometimes because of the irregularities of his mechanics
And here is the chatgpt reply to your statement. It does conclude as I did that mechanics, core, and work ethic are the main factors preventing injury:
As an AI language model, I do not have personal preferences, and I do not like or dislike anything. However, I understand your concerns about the potential impact of high pitch velocity on a pitcher’s arm and the risk of injury.
It is true that pitchers who throw with high velocity are at greater risk of arm injuries, and there have been several cases of pitchers who have had their careers marred by injuries. However, it is also important to note that every pitcher is unique, and there are several factors that contribute to the risk of injury, such as mechanics, workload, and genetics.
While it is impossible to predict the future with certainty, it is also important not to make assumptions based on limited information. It is possible that the pitcher you mentioned has a unique combination of factors that make him less prone to injury, such as excellent mechanics or a highly effective training regimen.
Furthermore, it is not accurate to say that using the “inner core” does not protect the arm from injury. Proper use of the core muscles can help to transfer the force generated by the pitching motion from the arm to the rest of the body, reducing the stress on the arm and potentially reducing the risk of injury.
Ultimately, it is important for pitchers to listen to their bodies, take care of themselves, and work with experienced coaches and trainers to minimize the risk of injury.
If you want to believe that throwing a ball 105.2 MPH puts no stress on a human arm I don’t know what to tell you. Yes if his mechanics are good that is a positive. That does not change the fact he is pushing his arm to the absolute physical limit of the human anatomy.
You are correct that throwing a ball at 105.2 MPH puts a significant amount of stress on the human arm, specifically the shoulder and elbow joints. The arm’s tendons, ligaments, and muscles are all subjected to extreme forces when a pitcher throws a ball with such velocity.
However, it’s important to note that the level of stress on the arm can vary depending on a pitcher’s mechanics and conditioning. Proper mechanics can help reduce stress on the arm, while poor mechanics can increase the risk of injury. Additionally, regular conditioning and training can help strengthen the arm and reduce the risk of injury.
So while it’s true that throwing a ball at 105.2 MPH is pushing the arm to its physical limit, a pitcher who has good mechanics and conditioning can reduce the risk of injury and continue to throw at high velocities without causing long-term damage to their arm.
When I saw Bryce Montes de Oca throwing 103, I said within a couple weeks the arm would break
And two weeks later he’s out for the season
It’s his mechanics, not the fact that he throws 103.
There’s lower injury risk with Greene
@Camden, dude, come up for air…
Yeah I definitely like this deal. Why not? Greene is a good guy, and a nice power pitcher that deserves to be the Reds new franchise player. Good job Cincy to get this done!
Good deal for both, but it’s nice to see the Reds locking up their young talent, building a core for the future instead of waning away in an endless rebuild.
Please get one done for Nick Lodolo now. He’s got a higher floor than Hunter Greene.
As well as Ashcraft for a triumphant triumvirate.
Agree. I really like this contract for Greene. Sign Lodolo now and I’ll know they are serious about contending again some day.
We all hear how hard he can throw, (announcers always telling us 100 mph+), but can he pitch?
Reds have a nice young nucleus, would like to see them contend in a few years.
You could always watch the games while you’re listening to the announcers. Then you might be able to tell for yourself if he can pitch.
I just watched him pitch a few days back when they played Atlanta. At times he looks good but sometimes he loses his control. We’ll see how good he his as the year progresses.
Not really. Once Lodolo loses young velo and stuff he won’t be the same
Greene will end up with a longer career and more production than Lodolo probably
Very nice. Life changing money for Green, a building block for the Reds.
Be nice to see them contend again soon.
I feel like he left a ton of money on the table.
It looks to me like they’re only buying out 1 year of free agency.
1. 2023 – Pre Arb
2. 2024 – Pre Arb
3. 2025 – Arb 1
4. 2026 – Arb 2
5. 2027 – Arb 3
6. 2028 – First Free Agent Year
7. 2029 – $21MM Club option with $2MM buyout
Honestly forgot he’s only 23
Yeah but he would have entered free agency at age 28, coming off probably good, solid years. He’ll still be a free agent at 30, but wont get the same money
He’ll still have more than enough money to live a carefree life. The only difference is the excess won’t be as much. I think he will be okay with that.
You also have to keep in mind that if he didn’t sign this extension and blew his arm out in the next couple of years, then he would have a LOT less. The downside to not signing extensions is far greater for the athlete than the downside of signing them.
@Camden453 – unless he doesn’t pan out or has another major arm injury, etc. To me, it looks like Greene valued a guaranteed $53MM. The point at which Greene actually makes more than the contract he signed is a pretty high water mark. Something like a durable and consistent #2 type starter. It certainly seems like he has the talent for it… or he could turn into Noah Syndergaard…
Martras, he projects more as someone who develops into his stuff later. Syndergaard rode the stuff and velo early on and then once he lost it that was it
Greene not only doesn’t rely on stuff, but like deGrom velo is based on his core, which won’t change
DeGrom added velocity later on because he settled into his core, and he still has the same velo
Greene projects as a “strong core” guy who should be able, like deGrom, to keep throwing 97 to 100 well into his 30s
It’s Lodolo that, like Syndergaard, will lose velo and stuff and be less effective
You have to judge the players core. Because that’s what you’re left with once stuff/young juice wears off
This is why Heyward, Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom don’t pan out. They don’t have good cores
deGrom had a good core. That’s why he added velo. Went from 96 to 100. Freeman, Riley, Chipper Jones. They all had good cores. Those are the guys who last. Hank Aaron had a strong core.
Greene has a good core and should be able to still throw 97+ into his 30s
@camden – Its amazing you can tell who has a good core without examining them and that it’s the “core” which is responsible for all the loss in velocity.
It’s also super informative how the core is responsible for so much velocity drop off for players in their 20s who somehow stumbled into great cores early in life only to have their cores simply waste away somehow without the hundreds of trainers and experts noticing the vanishing cores.
I hope you are someday able to provide to teams, who desperately need to reclaim lost pitcher velocity, your insight for the millions of dollars you should be making.
The Guaranteed money is where he Wins. Whether injury or ineffectiveness. The team is betting on solid production. And he’s under control anyway, so he’d Really have to Tank to not make it worth it. Also the arb process is controlled with guaranteed rates throughout.
Solid contract for a young player who only gave up one free agent season with another 21 mil option down the road, if he strikes Big. Then Free agency around 30.
He’s a pitcher that throws 103.
I mean he knows there is a chance he blows out his arm especially later in his arb years and he would not get the money that he got here. He took the sure thing and if he improves and becomes a dominant ace starter then he will make that big money just ask Verlander and Scherzer who are making big money into their late 30s
And we can pretty much assume one of those seasons bought out on this contract will be lost due to Tommy John. I don’t really see why the Reds did this, he was going to be cheap & under team control for a good few good seasons anyway. Let it play out a bit, see if he can even prove himself to be a consistent front end starter. They must be trying to emulate the Braves, or something.
I also like Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson a lot. I’m not sure if I would extend them just yet. It would have to be team friendly. They need to hold up a little better physically than they did last year, while performing. They are great people and help the chemistry a ton. I’m rooting for them always.
reds did a braves move
I get what you’re saying so yeah kind of, but also not really, the braves have never given a contract extension to anyone who hasn’t had a good season. The Reds are taking a chance on the high upside Greene has in the hope he turns into a good or great pitcher, although so far his results haven’t really been great. Doesn’t mean this is a bad deal whatsoever, I like the idea of taking risk on enormous upside. I think a more apt comparison would be what the Nationals did with Keibert Ruiz, good, not great results at the plate but huge upside and a former top prospect in the game for very little money.
Reds did a Braves move in Reds fashion. They gained little benefit.
Kinda reminds me of when the Rays signed Archer to that, I believe, 6 year deal. Salary heavier on the backend. Didn’t pan out win wise for him or the Rays. The year the Rays finally had a winning season again was the same year they traded Chris to Pittsburg.
This deal is more than front-loaded than if they had just paid Greene year-to-year. Has the potential to create more budget room on the back end than what Greene would have earned at the end of arbitration and beyond.
Terrible contract. Greene should be a reliever he’s not good enough for a rotation.
man! You’re an absolute idiot, Stevie. holy moly.
Has no control of his pitches and extremely homer prone. He was awful last year. Learn baseball
or go watch soccer kid
Yeah, and he’s still young and coming in to command, janowski
Stop commenting and come back when you understand what’s going on
@Larry, he’s just trolling don’t take the bait, it an excellent deal for both sides.
Wah someone has a different opinion so they are trolling. What a sad mentality you have. Hunter has no idea how to pitch. He’s best suited for the bullpen
ksoze. you are right…thanx man
No he’s not trolling ksoze he’s just a person who doesn’t understand what’s going on yet
GREAT STUFF, but Greene needs to learn how to pitch.
Great deal for the Redlegs. Now sign Lodolo, India, and Stephenson
Taylor Walls and Yandy Diaz just Extended Lodolo fastballs in the the left field red chairs.
One game does not a career make. I remember when Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton got lit up too.
I totally agree. I’m hoping that this young trio on Reds hurlers will grow into a big three.
People call me crazy, but I say Ashcraft will be the best of the three long term.
Hopefully like Maddux was the best of the Braves staff but the other guys were great too.
But hopefully it’s just a coincidence that Lodolo had a bag game on the same day that Greene got a big contract and he did not. Next up for the Reds is to sign Lodolo. And maybe Ashcraft.
That’s like saying India would be a great pinch hitter.
Really only adding 1 year because they threw away a year having him make opening day roster. It’s great to get a extra year though. Would have been better to get 2 they didn’t have already.
“The deal, …, starts this year”. Nice raise. Kudos, young fellar and a shout out to your agent. Congrats!
The Reds can extend a player, and yet Chaim Bloom sits on his can and stares at the wall.
He just spent 4x that amount on devers
I think Big whiffa thinks you’re FullOfShit, milt. Thoughts?
It is me or does that seem horrible? Not really gaining much control and I feel like as a pitcher, especially a high ceiling but inconsistent one, he probably has better odds of struggling, missing a year or two with injuries, than making more than that in arbitration. Better guys have signed for less.
I feel ya holec35. Maybe the Reds see youth with upside? And here’s the biggy, their FO is convinced his rehab from TJ surgery and subsequent performance development give little indication of another major arm injury? Gutsy call on their part.
I think it’s premature.
Even the Reds radio guys say Hunter needs to mature as a pitcher. Throws 100 mph. That’s it.
How is the extension allowed to “include this year” when the season has already started?
Contracts, such as his current one, can be voided mutually.
Excellent deal, considering he would have 2 years of service time after this year – a year makes such a big difference!
HUH? a hard throwing eventual long reliever gets $33 million!!! Never rest on the Cincinatti Reds doing stupid..
Smart or stupid, it’s $53M, not $33M.
Also, it’s Cincinnati, not Cincinatti.
Well burnt..
Extension season continues!
Reds are (again) getting pantsed and pink-hineyed today.
SpankSpankSPANK!
Wasn’t Greene a good hitter as well? Perhaps since the Reds wrapped him up for so long, maybe they can find a way to let him swing a bat once on a while.
TB 10, Cin 0.
Does baseball need a mercy rule?
Thoughts?
Reds beat them 8-1 the day before. Blow outs happen in baseball
Yeah but they’re getting pink-hineyed again right now. 8-zip.
SpankSpankSPANK!
ERA is the only thing that matters. FIP and those other stats that predict how good a guy should be are all hot garbage. He has not been great so far. They overpaid here. I don’t see him outplaying that contract at at average of 9 million per season.
I don’t have a problem extending a promising, power arm but the Reds missed an opportunity to front load the contact. That would give them more future money to spend and compete. I guess that they’re just gonna pad their wallets this year and next. Greene seems like a good young guy but he has to get more than 3-5 innings a start. I’d dedicate 2 years to him as a starter and if he can’t constantly go 5-7 innings then he may become a closer.
I’m most interested in what the ~40 million in escalators turn out to be
This is only a bad deal if he’s a Cy Young award winner during his first three years, and it’s bad for him then. Otherwise, this is a good deal for both sides.
His pre-arb, and even arb numbers probably would have exceeded what’s in this contract (win for the Reds) presuming health. He’s got life changing money now and that’s a big deal (win for him). Did he leave some money on the table? Sure. But how much considering how far from FA he is? Hard to say.
I’ve seen some people state he should be a reliever. If he’s a good to great closer, these dollars still translate.
Him completely falling off the table and being awful — not merely bad, but awful — is the only way this really hurts the Reds.
The most shocking part of all this is that ownership might have actually made a good move here. SHOCKING!?!?!
Why is he a starter? Not that he is bad at all but he would be a great reliever, I feel like him being a starter is risky for his health and longevity
Because starters provide 3-4x the amount of value relief pitchers provide.
Well, at least the organization is finally showing some commitment to the future. Aside from the names above I’d throw in Diaz and Friedl.
I’d look at Steer and Fraley too. Just a feeling based on eyeballs. Not every contract extension is silly money.
Showing future commitment is the best PR move they could make.
1-For the folks arguing about which stat(s) are better-stop! No one should use a single stat.
2-I like this for the Reds, and it’s okay for Greene. He could blow up, or he could be one of the top pitchers in BB in a month.
3-For the Reds’ fans, anyone know anything about his character/habits? IMO, long-term investments like these are always more about whether one thinks they will quit when they get rich, or whether they will show up on an off-day to lift weights. Feel free to make a Jamarcus Russell comment.
4-I am exceedingly happy to see the Reds invest. As I said in the off-season, they have a core of 5-6 kids that are about as good as the Orioles young kids, plus some prospects. Time to start spending a little.
3 – I’ve heard and read nothing but positive comments about Greene’s character. He seems to be a dedicated player and person.
I’ve seen this kid throw a number of times against the Pirates. Incredible upside and would expect that as he matures and develops other pitches, he’s going to be one of the best. Good move by the Reds.
Pretty good gamble to lock down a high strikeout pitcher.