The Reds have committed to a key member of their rotation. Cincinnati announced Tuesday evening they’ve signed Hunter Greene to a six-year deal covering the 2023-28 seasons and containing a club option for 2029. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee, including a $2MM buyout on a $21MM option for the ’29 season. The deal also contains various escalators and awards bonuses that could push the total earnings to $96.2MM. Greene is a CAA client.
The salary structure breaks down as follows:
- $2MM signing bonus
- $1MM salary in 2023
- $3MM in 2024
- $6MM in 2025
- $8MM in 2026
- $15MM in 2027
- $16MM in 2028
- $21MM club option with $2MM buyout in 2029
Greene entered this season with exactly one year of major league service after breaking camp with the team last season. The deal buys out his final two pre-arbitration seasons, all three arbitration years and at least one free agent year with an option for a second.
The 23-year-old righty was selected by the Reds with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft. Though he was drafted as a two-way player, he dropped the offensive portion of his game while in the minors and has been entirely focused on pitching. He required Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2019 but that did little to diminish his tremendous prospect stock. He still had his trademark triple-digit heater and wipeout slider when he returned. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 but Greene fared well in his return to competitive ball the year after. He posted a 3.30 ERA in 106 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 31.7% of batters faced while walking 8.9%.
He was selected to the club’s 40-man roster after that season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, but it wasn’t clear if the club would carry him on their Opening Day roster. In the end, Greene did indeed make the club out of camp, sticking with them all year long apart from an August injured list stint and subsequent rehab assignment. He made 24 starts in the big leagues, logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.44 ERA. He struck out 30.9% of batters faced, walked 9% of opponents, and got grounders at a 29.3% clip. It wasn’t a completely dominant showing, but it was a solid debut for a 22-year-old getting his first taste of the big leagues.
Greene is off to a similar beginning to the season in 2023. Through four starts and 17 innings, he owns a 4.24 ERA. He’s punched out just under 31% of opponents while generating swinging strikes on a strong 13.5% of his offerings. It’s little surprise Greene has missed plenty of bats with a fastball that averages north of 99 MPH. Home runs were his main concern last year, as his modest ground ball numbers translated into a lofty 1.72 homers allowed per nine innings. To his credit, Greene has allowed just one longball thus far in 2023.
If he can consistently keep the ball in the yard, it’s not hard to envision him sticking at the top of a rotation. Few young pitchers can match Greene’s raw arm strength and he’s long shown solid control for a young flamethrower. Greene has handled left and right-handed batters in his brief big league time as well. Between him and fellow top ten pick Nick Lodolo (plus mid-rotation grounder specialist Graham Ashcraft), the Reds have the nucleus of an excellent rotation they hope to lead them out of their ongoing rebuild.
Greene had been on a trajectory to reach arbitration for the first time after 2024 and reach free agency after 2027. The Reds tack on two years of club control while leaving him an opportunity to hit the open market at a relatively young age. Greene would be on track to hit free agency headed into his age-30 season if the Reds exercise their option. He locks in strong earnings to safeguard against injury or performance risk while retaining the possibility of a significant free agent deal down the line.
The $53MM guarantee is the second-largest for a pitcher with between one and two years of big league service. Spencer Strider set the record last October with a six-year, $75MM deal. Greene falls short of that mark but didn’t have the kind of rookie season the Atlanta hurler put together in 2022, when he worked to a 2.67 ERA with an eye-popping 38.3% strikeout percentage in 131 2/3 innings. Greene’s deal easily checks in second in the service group, with Madison Bumgarner’s decade-old $35MM extension representing the record mark until Strider put pen to paper.
Cincinnati didn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract beyond this season. Option buyouts for the likes of Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Wil Myers and Curt Casali represented the Reds’ only commitments. There’s plenty of breathing room and obvious motivation for the Reds to start committing to core players. Speculatively speaking, players like Lodolo, Ashcraft, Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India could be next on the front office’s list of extension targets.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Reds and Greene had agreed to a six-year, $53MM extension and reported the option value. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the contract could max out at $96.2MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the salary and escalator specifics.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Nice deal for both, I see it as a win/win already. Go get ’em Hunter!
Please get one done for Nick Lodolo now. He’s got a higher floor than Hunter Greene.
As well as Ashcraft for a triumphant triumvirate.
Agree. I really like this contract for Greene. Sign Lodolo now and I’ll know they are serious about contending again some day.
We all hear how hard he can throw, (announcers always telling us 100 mph+), but can he pitch?
Reds have a nice young nucleus, would like to see them contend in a few years.
You could always watch the games while you’re listening to the announcers. Then you might be able to tell for yourself if he can pitch.
I just watched him pitch a few days back when they played Atlanta. At times he looks good but sometimes he loses his control. We’ll see how good he his as the year progresses.
Not really. Once Lodolo loses young velo and stuff he won’t be the same
Greene will end up with a longer career and more production than Lodolo probably
Very nice. Life changing money for Green, a building block for the Reds.
Be nice to see them contend again soon.
I feel like he left a ton of money on the table.
It looks to me like they’re only buying out 1 year of free agency.
1. 2023 – Pre Arb
2. 2024 – Pre Arb
3. 2025 – Arb 1
4. 2026 – Arb 2
5. 2027 – Arb 3
6. 2028 – First Free Agent Year
7. 2029 – $21MM Club option with $2MM buyout
Honestly forgot he’s only 23
Yeah but he would have entered free agency at age 28, coming off probably good, solid years. He’ll still be a free agent at 30, but wont get the same money
He’ll still have more than enough money to live a carefree life. The only difference is the excess won’t be as much. I think he will be okay with that.
You also have to keep in mind that if he didn’t sign this extension and blew his arm out in the next couple of years, then he would have a LOT less. The downside to not signing extensions is far greater for the athlete than the downside of signing them.
@Camden453 – unless he doesn’t pan out or has another major arm injury, etc. To me, it looks like Greene valued a guaranteed $53MM. The point at which Greene actually makes more than the contract he signed is a pretty high water mark. Something like a durable and consistent #2 type starter. It certainly seems like he has the talent for it… or he could turn into Noah Syndergaard…
Martras, he projects more as someone who develops into his stuff later. Syndergaard rode the stuff and velo early on and then once he lost it that was it
Greene not only doesn’t rely on stuff, but like deGrom velo is based on his core, which won’t change
DeGrom added velocity later on because he settled into his core, and he still has the same velo
Greene projects as a “strong core” guy who should be able, like deGrom, to keep throwing 97 to 100 well into his 30s
It’s Lodolo that, like Syndergaard, will lose velo and stuff and be less effective
You have to judge the players core. Because that’s what you’re left with once stuff/young juice wears off
This is why Heyward, Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom don’t pan out. They don’t have good cores
deGrom had a good core. That’s why he added velo. Went from 96 to 100. Freeman, Riley, Chipper Jones. They all had good cores. Those are the guys who last. Hank Aaron had a strong core.
Greene has a good core and should be able to still throw 97+ into his 30s
@camden – Its amazing you can tell who has a good core without examining them and that it’s the “core” which is responsible for all the loss in velocity.
It’s also super informative how the core is responsible for so much velocity drop off for players in their 20s who somehow stumbled into great cores early in life only to have their cores simply waste away somehow without the hundreds of trainers and experts noticing the vanishing cores.
I hope you are someday able to provide to teams, who desperately need to reclaim lost pitcher velocity, your insight for the millions of dollars you should be making.
The Guaranteed money is where he Wins. Whether injury or ineffectiveness. The team is betting on solid production. And he’s under control anyway, so he’d Really have to Tank to not make it worth it. Also the arb process is controlled with guaranteed rates throughout.
Solid contract for a young player who only gave up one free agent season with another 21 mil option down the road, if he strikes Big. Then Free agency around 30.
He’s a pitcher that throws 103.
I mean he knows there is a chance he blows out his arm especially later in his arb years and he would not get the money that he got here. He took the sure thing and if he improves and becomes a dominant ace starter then he will make that big money just ask Verlander and Scherzer who are making big money into their late 30s
And we can pretty much assume one of those seasons bought out on this contract will be lost due to Tommy John. I don’t really see why the Reds did this, he was going to be cheap & under team control for a good few good seasons anyway. Let it play out a bit, see if he can even prove himself to be a consistent front end starter. They must be trying to emulate the Braves, or something.
I also like Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson a lot. I’m not sure if I would extend them just yet. It would have to be team friendly. They need to hold up a little better physically than they did last year, while performing. They are great people and help the chemistry a ton. I’m rooting for them always.
reds did a braves move
I get what you’re saying so yeah kind of, but also not really, the braves have never given a contract extension to anyone who hasn’t had a good season. The Reds are taking a chance on the high upside Greene has in the hope he turns into a good or great pitcher, although so far his results haven’t really been great. Doesn’t mean this is a bad deal whatsoever, I like the idea of taking risk on enormous upside. I think a more apt comparison would be what the Nationals did with Keibert Ruiz, good, not great results at the plate but huge upside and a former top prospect in the game for very little money.
Reds did a Braves move in Reds fashion. They gained little benefit.
Kinda reminds me of when the Rays signed Archer to that, I believe, 6 year deal. Salary heavier on the backend. Didn’t pan out win wise for him or the Rays. The year the Rays finally had a winning season again was the same year they traded Chris to Pittsburg.
This deal is more than front-loaded than if they had just paid Greene year-to-year. Has the potential to create more budget room on the back end than what Greene would have earned at the end of arbitration and beyond.
Terrible contract. Greene should be a reliever he’s not good enough for a rotation.
man! You’re an absolute idiot, Stevie. holy moly.
Has no control of his pitches and extremely homer prone. He was awful last year. Learn baseball
or go watch soccer kid
Yeah, and he’s still young and coming in to command, janowski
Stop commenting and come back when you understand what’s going on
@Larry, he’s just trolling don’t take the bait, it an excellent deal for both sides.
Wah someone has a different opinion so they are trolling. What a sad mentality you have. Hunter has no idea how to pitch. He’s best suited for the bullpen
ksoze. you are right…thanx man
No he’s not trolling ksoze he’s just a person who doesn’t understand what’s going on yet
GREAT STUFF, but Greene needs to learn how to pitch.
Great deal for the Redlegs. Now sign Lodolo, India, and Stephenson
Taylor Walls and Yandy Diaz just Extended Lodolo fastballs in the the left field red chairs.
One game does not a career make. I remember when Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton got lit up too.
I totally agree. I’m hoping that this young trio on Reds hurlers will grow into a big three.
People call me crazy, but I say Ashcraft will be the best of the three long term.
Hopefully like Maddux was the best of the Braves staff but the other guys were great too.
But hopefully it’s just a coincidence that Lodolo had a bag game on the same day that Greene got a big contract and he did not. Next up for the Reds is to sign Lodolo. And maybe Ashcraft.
That’s like saying India would be a great pinch hitter.
Really only adding 1 year because they threw away a year having him make opening day roster. It’s great to get a extra year though. Would have been better to get 2 they didn’t have already.
“The deal, …, starts this year”. Nice raise. Kudos, young fellar and a shout out to your agent. Congrats!
The Reds can extend a player, and yet Chaim Bloom sits on his can and stares at the wall.
He just spent 4x that amount on devers
I think Big whiffa thinks you’re FullOfShit, milt. Thoughts?
It is me or does that seem horrible? Not really gaining much control and I feel like as a pitcher, especially a high ceiling but inconsistent one, he probably has better odds of struggling, missing a year or two with injuries, than making more than that in arbitration. Better guys have signed for less.
I feel ya holec35. Maybe the Reds see youth with upside? And here’s the biggy, their FO is convinced his rehab from TJ surgery and subsequent performance development give little indication of another major arm injury? Gutsy call on their part.
I think it’s premature.
Even the Reds radio guys say Hunter needs to mature as a pitcher. Throws 100 mph. That’s it.
How is the extension allowed to “include this year” when the season has already started?
Contracts, such as his current one, can be voided mutually.
Excellent deal, considering he would have 2 years of service time after this year – a year makes such a big difference!
HUH? a hard throwing eventual long reliever gets $33 million!!! Never rest on the Cincinatti Reds doing stupid..
Smart or stupid, it’s $53M, not $33M.
Also, it’s Cincinnati, not Cincinatti.
Well burnt..
Extension season continues!
Reds are (again) getting pantsed and pink-hineyed today.
SpankSpankSPANK!
Wasn’t Greene a good hitter as well? Perhaps since the Reds wrapped him up for so long, maybe they can find a way to let him swing a bat once on a while.
TB 10, Cin 0.
Does baseball need a mercy rule?
Thoughts?
Reds beat them 8-1 the day before. Blow outs happen in baseball
Yeah but they’re getting pink-hineyed again right now. 8-zip.
SpankSpankSPANK!
ERA is the only thing that matters. FIP and those other stats that predict how good a guy should be are all hot garbage. He has not been great so far. They overpaid here. I don’t see him outplaying that contract at at average of 9 million per season.
I don’t have a problem extending a promising, power arm but the Reds missed an opportunity to front load the contact. That would give them more future money to spend and compete. I guess that they’re just gonna pad their wallets this year and next. Greene seems like a good young guy but he has to get more than 3-5 innings a start. I’d dedicate 2 years to him as a starter and if he can’t constantly go 5-7 innings then he may become a closer.
I’m most interested in what the ~40 million in escalators turn out to be
This is only a bad deal if he’s a Cy Young award winner during his first three years, and it’s bad for him then. Otherwise, this is a good deal for both sides.
His pre-arb, and even arb numbers probably would have exceeded what’s in this contract (win for the Reds) presuming health. He’s got life changing money now and that’s a big deal (win for him). Did he leave some money on the table? Sure. But how much considering how far from FA he is? Hard to say.
I’ve seen some people state he should be a reliever. If he’s a good to great closer, these dollars still translate.
Him completely falling off the table and being awful — not merely bad, but awful — is the only way this really hurts the Reds.
The most shocking part of all this is that ownership might have actually made a good move here. SHOCKING!?!?!
Why is he a starter? Not that he is bad at all but he would be a great reliever, I feel like him being a starter is risky for his health and longevity
Because starters provide 3-4x the amount of value relief pitchers provide.
Well, at least the organization is finally showing some commitment to the future. Aside from the names above I’d throw in Diaz and Friedl.
I’d look at Steer and Fraley too. Just a feeling based on eyeballs. Not every contract extension is silly money.
Showing future commitment is the best PR move they could make.
1-For the folks arguing about which stat(s) are better-stop! No one should use a single stat.
2-I like this for the Reds, and it’s okay for Greene. He could blow up, or he could be one of the top pitchers in BB in a month.
3-For the Reds’ fans, anyone know anything about his character/habits? IMO, long-term investments like these are always more about whether one thinks they will quit when they get rich, or whether they will show up on an off-day to lift weights. Feel free to make a Jamarcus Russell comment.
4-I am exceedingly happy to see the Reds invest. As I said in the off-season, they have a core of 5-6 kids that are about as good as the Orioles young kids, plus some prospects. Time to start spending a little.
3 – I’ve heard and read nothing but positive comments about Greene’s character. He seems to be a dedicated player and person.
I’ve seen this kid throw a number of times against the Pirates. Incredible upside and would expect that as he matures and develops other pitches, he’s going to be one of the best. Good move by the Reds.
Pretty good gamble to lock down a high strikeout pitcher.