Adam Duvall’s hot start to the season was cruelly halted when he sustained a distal radius fracture in his left wrist. There was relief initially that Duvall wouldn’t require surgery, but it still appears it’ll be a lengthy recovery time, with Duvall telling Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he won’t be able to swing the bat for six weeks.
“[It’s] maybe six weeks before I can swing again. I’m going to keep running and keep throwing to stay in shape,” Duvall said.
It’s still hard to pinpoint exactly when Duvall might be ready to return to action, but certainly six weeks plus time to build back up again would suggest a return well into the summer. Duvall, a lifetime .233/.292/.472 hitter, went 15-for-33 over his first eight games of the season, slugging four home runs while manning center field for the Red Sox.
It’s a much shorter timeline for starter Brayan Bello to return to the team. The youngster is slated to return on Monday against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels on Boston Marathon day, per Speier. Bello was slowed this spring discomfort in his elbow. Such discomfort is usually hugely alarming in a young pitcher, but it seems it was in fact minor and Bello will only miss the first few weeks of the season.
Bello worked to a 4.71 ERA over 57 1/3 innings last year with a 20.5% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate. Bello was tagged for a .404 opponent BABIP, which suggests he might expect to be a little more fortunate in that department over a larger sample size, and indeed his FIP sat at 2.94.
It’ll be intriguing to see how Boston’s rotation shapes up over the next few weeks. Bello’s return will likely be followed by veteran James Paxton, who made another minor league rehab start as he works his way back from a hamstring injury. According to Speier, manager Alex Cora expects Paxton to make at least one more rehab start, but it seemingly won’t be long before he too can be activated from the IL.
Since 2020, Paxton has made just six starts for the Yankees and Mariners, getting tagged for a 6.65 ERA in that small number as he battled injury. He signed with the Red Sox last season, but Tommy John recovery and a lat strain prevented him from ever taking to the mound. He exercised a $4MM player option ahead of the 2023 campaign, but the hamstring injury sustained in spring training delayed his debut.
When he does return the Red Sox will have some decisions to make in their rotation. Chris Sale and Corey Kluber likely aren’t going anywhere, which would leave Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock as the options to be forced out. The Sox seemed determined to give Whitlock a shot at becoming a starter, but if he struggles he might be an easy option to return to a relief role where he found tremendous success. Of course, given the injury history of a number of Boston’s starters, it’s possible all of this just figures itself out or they opt to go with a larger rotation to reduce the workload on their arms.
My biggest RedSox question is “Who goes first? Bloom or Cora”
They doubled down on Cora and Bloom seems to be following the preferred script, so I bet they both stay as long as they flirt with a .500 record.
They might get fired in the offseason, but not during. No one thought the Red Sox would win this year.
Sycophant – So they invest in these two clowns but don’t expect to win? I’m confused. Why keep a guy if you know you aren’t going to win because of the actions taken by these two guys?
I think they expected to win despite the horrendous moves and once again they were wrong.
KD – just like all the other ‘spin’ coming out of the front office, after the top free agents spurned bloom based on the last 3+ years of history, I’m sure the inside talk between ownership and the rest of the brass was all about ‘short term’ ‘high upside’ ‘value’ ‘multi-positional versatility’ and ‘roster flexibility’ among other bs buzz words to make it sound like there was a method to actually wanting a focus on oft injured and career sunset players mix in with some overpays being the ones that agreed to come aboard, rather than it being all they could get.
Kd.
Do you think every team in MLB expects to win?
Sycophant – how many teams do you know of that spend up to or into the CBT penalty zone year after year and don’t expect at least a wild card?
Especially now that TWELVE teams are getting in one way or another?
The Red Sox are trying to cut payroll and retool. They obviously didn’t expect to win this year.
Sycophant – I think each team puts together a team to maximize wins given their budget. Some are good at it like Boston was before Bloom and some are very bad at it.
I think teams like KC, PIT, COL and others who have limited resources and are somewhere along a spectrum of minor league talent rising to the majors have expectations for their team to improve through winning. So yes I think all teams expect to win but the expectation as to how much is based on where they are in the talent cycle.
Bloom doesn’t understand the concept of a talent cycle. He focuses on cost per player rather than on talent per player which is unfortunate for all us fans of the Red Sox. He’s not like the smart TB folks still in their front office who can see talent on other teams and deal for it. He’s just a guy who can look at a past season and estimate if the person’s numbers will go up. Some times he’s right like Renfroe and Wacha and sometimes he’s wrong. Actually most of the time he’s wrong.
Talent drives success. The talent that got depleted this off season should not have happened. Bloom didn’t control it like he should have. If you lose a Mookie Betts for $27MM then you have $27MM to find the next best thing. That’s not how Bloom thinks. He thinks he has 3 guys for $9MM who can play multiple positions at league average or better if he picks the right guys. Unfortunately, he hasn’t picked the right guys so the productivity of Mookie is replaced with guys like Arroyo, McGuire and Refsnyder. I’d rather have Mookie like most Boston fans.
As GASOXFAN pointed out, he’s not cutting costs he is increasing them and providing less talent. That’s not a winning approach and there is no excuse for ownership not recognizing the problem prior to giving him an extension. Sure he took the heat for Mookie so maybe they felt they owed him but he’s buried their beloved team. It’s a full fledged disaster now.!
Someone needs to come in and fix all that Bloom broke!!
Specifically,
He went from Benny to Yoshida. Yoshida has too many shortcomings to pay him $18MM for 5 years so if Bloom gets fired the new GM can try to deal Yoshida when he is hot to a team looking for the Japanese player to build their fan base.
He went from JBJ/Duran to Duvall. While Duvall was hot he’s not a CFer nor does his .220 annual average cut it. It’s worse than JBJ and he doesn’t field as well but he hits more HRs to offset his shortcomings. The farm system or some other team needs to provide Boston with a long-term solution in CF.
He went from Mookie to Verdugo. Massive step down. To replace Mookie you need to spend Mookie type money so why not just keep Mookie?
Devers shouldn’t ever touch a baseball glove yet he’s butchered fielding at 3B for 7 seasons so far. The new GM needs to lay down the law and tell
Devers he’s the DH for the next decade. You can’t trade his contract so Boston thanks to Bloom is saddled with a one dimensional DH for over a decade.
He went from Bogey to nobody with Mayer on the horizon for 2025. It may take him two years beyond that to approach the level Bogey was at so the release of Bogey cost Boston 5 years at SS unless Story’s arm heals and he can make the throw until Mayer is ready.
He went from an injured Pedroia supported by Duran/Holt to Arroyo. Arroyo is at best a utility player not a starter. The new GM needs Yorke or another farm hand to fill the 2B spot by 2025. The new 2B probably won’t be at Pedroia’s skill level but maybe Yorke can be league average or better for many cheap years.
He went from Moreland to Casas because he hates Dalbec. Both players need enough at bats to determine if they will be league average or better. Dalbec has shown signs but has not been consistent. Casas has yet to prove anything. They are good prospects so the new GM doesn’t need to touch this position for at least a year.
He went from Vazquez to McGuire. Huge step down. The team needs a young catcher who is smart, has a big arm and can hit .250 or better. That should be a priority for the new GM.
The rest of the team has enough guys from before Bloom’s time plus Bloom’s two additions of Pivetta and Whitlock to hold it’s own for the next year as the offense gets back up to par. By the time the team is about ready to compete again, Jansen and Martin will need to be renewed or released. Great additions but meaningless based on timing.
sycophant – In the end, if Bloom CHOSE to put this crap team on the field because he’s waiting for Mayer and others to get good, he’s an idiot. If he thought he could win with this crap he’s both a fool and delusional. Or maybe he just doesn’t have a job well suited for his talents!!
GaSox – Excellent post as usual, I completely agree.
Fact is, the Sox have the 5th-highest luxury tax payroll in the league so they damn well better finish among the 6 AL playoff teams. If they don’t, it will be a colossal failure just like 2022 and 2020 and 2019 etc.
And this time, nobody can make excuses about Bloom being burdened with inherited contracts. Only Sale is on a pre-Bloom contract.
Under normal circumstances, the manager would be the scape goat. But this is Boston, and Cora is Henry’s man. So who knows?
DBH – I agree Henry has always been fond of Cora, he’s the one who made the decision to bring Cora back … it wasn’t Bloom’s decision. But no matter how woke Henry is, when a manager loses the clubhouse and it translates to a losing record which translates to millions in lost revenue, Henry simply won’t tolerate that for very long.
Red Sox are 5th in the league in luxury tax payroll, Henry will be furious if they are no longer contending in July.
Henry so woke.
Bloom must go NOW!!
Bloom must go NOW!! Look at the players Cora has been given to it out there.
This argument makes no sense who would you rather fire the d bag making the roster moves or the manager inheriting the bad moves? Who’s more at fault….common sense says BLOOM.
@Jurrassic.
All in all, I agree. But AC isn’t helping his cause with some of the line-ups he’s tossing out there. ‘Kiki leading off. Good Gawd. Terrible, just terrible lol
DBH – How about Dalbec playing shortstop.
How about Chang sacrifice bunting with just one runner on base and down 2 runs in the 9th.
How about bringing in Brasier & Ort to give up 5 combined runs in a game they lost by just one run.
Cora cannot manage a team unless it’s loaded with star players, he has shown that every year.
Cora makes questionable decisions but has Henry’s support so i think this mess is Bloom’s sword to fall on
Future (and past) headline: James Paxton’s return to the mound has been delayed by _____. (Fill in the blank). Paxton has been slowed by injuries and may not pitch again this season due to _____ (fill in the blank). Paxton, when healthy, is rumored to be an excellent pitcher although nobody remembers when that was.
@ Fever, As I have said before, I don’t care for either Cora or Bloom. I wish Henry would clean house. But I want Bloom gone last week. As somebody else posted, once Bloom is gone, Cora is right behind him.
Rsox – Can’t we stack them on the sword? Seems more efficient.
Cora needs to be jettisoned immediately. He has mentally checked out & seems completely indifferent and apathetic about whether his team wins or loses. Completely Zombified. Has that 1000 yard stare going, seems depressed, despondent. Varitek the next manager??
Ignorant – Great post! You’ve hit on some points that aren’t mentioned enough. Cora is not a motivator, he doesn’t have the fire in him.
One of the best examples was when Duran gave up on a CF fly ball that he misjudged and he didn’t even bother to run after it. Cora said absolutely nothing, just shrugged it off, no immediate benching or anything.
You can’t be an effective manager when your top priority is trying to be their best friend, that applies to every management position in every industry.
It’s not about sense. It’s about optics. You have to have scapegoats as ownership will only admit they made a mistake as a last resort. So maybe a pitching or hitting coach goes first. Then the manager. Then the GM.
Cora managed the 2019 defending champions how did that work out
If Bloom goes, Cora will follow as the new GM/PoBO will want to put in his own manager. Nothing will happen in-season.
Lord – Normally when a team badly under-achieves, they replace the manager midseason with the bench coach.
But I’m not sure Vazquez could handle it, other than the PRWL and minors he really doesn’t have the experience.
Fever- the team isn’t underachieving, if anything they’re overachieving. Any team that trots out Christian Arroyo, Connor Wong, Yu Chang, Rob Refsnyder, Raimel Tapia and having no other choice but to stick with Triston Casas was never built to be successful in the first place
If Cora were to be fired during the season i would have to think Jason Varitek gets the interim job over Vazquez (which makes me greatful that Venable is gone)
Varitek doesn’t want the job, he’s said it multiple times
Mango – A large portion of the team is indeed underachieving.
Casas was expected to put up solid rookie numbers, he has bombed so far.
Nobody expected Sale or Kluber or Kiké or Arroyo or Whitlock or Houck or Yoshida to be THIS bad.
Fever, If you recall, I said this offseason that Casas was a questionmark when some Bloomers kept touting he was going to tear the cover off the ball. I supported the analysis with his low .ba, and, I countered the ‘but he homered at xyz rate’ by pointing out he barely scraped over the wall twice which wouldn’t have homered elsewhere rf trop, lf NYY) and got a lucky poke for a 3rd hr, with 2hrs having been using the juiced NYY home baseballs the astrophysicist found was different than everywhere else to fuel Judge’s run for publicity purposes.
I’m not shocked he continues to perform the whay his 2022 said he might.
GA: Casas was touted to be an OBP Machine/Monster as well, and we’re not even seeing that. Can he even lean into a pitch and possibly get on via HBP , or does somehow that even eludes him?
Martinez mango : Anyone thought these guys would be good???Sale is a shell of what he once was . Kluber is over the hill ( dumb signing).Yoshida , come on never played in the mlb ( dumb signing) . Kiki basically a role player . Accept Cora and the front office hype him up to be something he isn’t . Arroyo bench player / utility guy. . I think Whitlock will be ok from your list .
Because nobody is going to take the job without that caveat
Bloom didn’t have his choice of manager so why would his replacement
It looks like Bloom’s top priorities are building the farm system and maintaining financial flexibility. I think John Henry is likely on board with that.
AITSTYW – So lets evaluate Bloom at his priorities
1 – The FARM SYSTEM
The farm sytem rating jumped when Bloom tanked 2020 and got Mayer. Is that building the farm system or is it simply showing how bogus the ratings are? Name all the great additions to the farm system by Bloom and which one’s are all-stars. Too soon. OK which one will be all stars? Too soon. Which one might impact a game in a positive way in the next several years? Too soon.
Bloom improving the farm system is a myth not a reality. There is no proof.
2 – Bloom is maintaining financial flexibility? I think we must have a different definition of financial flexibility. Bloom spent over the CAP on a 5th place team. DD won a RING with a team $30MM under the cap for active players. That would suggest to me that DD was the financially flexible GM and Bloom is spend crazy and his money has gone to bad investments.
If you think financial flexibility is dozens of guys making very little money that can play multiple positions at a below league average level, then yes you are right he’s going for financial flexibility but he’s not actually trying to win. Is that what you want in a GM? Do you really believe Henry is on board with that bizarre and counter productive thinking? I don’t. I think he’s there because he took the hit for Mookie’s removal and the misdirection created to keep fans from focusing on the racism displayed by the owners with regard to the black players. Henry owes Bloom but I find it hard to believe he thinks he’s doing a good job. Henry is paying back a favor. That’s all. Just like with Cora. Cora kept Henry out of the limelight of the 2018 cheating scandal. That’s what got him a second chance as manager. He kept his mouth quiet about the owners knowing the cheating was happening. They didn’t get suspended and their fines were far less thanks to Cora. Let’s hope the score is finally even with both guys so they can get their pink slips this month.
KD: I’m not going to break down the whole Red Sox farm system here, but I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic. I think prospects there will help the Red Sox and/or be traded for players to help the Red Sox. I think maintaining financial flexibility is avoiding bad contracts. Maybe financial responsibility is a better way to describe it. I have said before, and it may still be be true, that Bloom may not be completely trying to win now. I think he wants to build a strong farm system before he goes all in to win now. So, he might actually be fielding a mediocre team that that will stay in the mix, but ultimately get him a good draft pick. I can’t really say for sure, but if we can see a mediocre team, I’m sure Bloom can see a mediocre team. I do not believe the Red Sox are currently racist. I believe Mookie wanted to test free agency and was not going to sign, so they traded him. Finally, MLB documented no evidence of cheating in their report about the 2018 Red Sox. Mookie recently said there was infrequent illegal sign stealing. So, it looks like not much happened. There were MLB monitors in each team’s replay room in the 2018 postseason, so no cheating there.
Love the inconsistency in KD17s logic. He does this all the time.
—————
“DD won a RING with a team $30MM under the cap for active players.”
Im assuming he’s trying to exclude Hanley and Panda. Even though DD was aware of both contracts when he went over the Cap.
“Bloom spent over the CAP on a 5th place team.”
Shouldn’t the same rule be applied to Bloom, since he was carrying Sale’s useless contract?
—————–
This is one of many examples, of where facts are altered or word games are played, to match a planned outcome. Basically lying.
Ahh, another rsmith post… coming from the guy who spent all offseason throwing around inaccuracies to try and prop bloom up.
I think one of my favorites was him ranting over, and, over, and over how DD exceeding the CBT three consecutive seasons. And when pointed out when, and how, DD did… he refused to ever admit he was wrong.
Yup. Not a guy to be talking about twisting and ignoring facts IMO.
KD 17 : spot on . Great post
They both need to go asap. Cora’s terrible (although compared to John Farrell, he’s a genius) and Bloom has never accomplished anything. As others have pointed out, at least Epstein, Cherington and Dombrowski produced a champion. Bloom has this team going in the toilet.
milt – I agree on Cora, but why the hate toward Farrell? In his 5 years he won at least 93 games three times. Also three division titles and a WS championship.
Farrell was a GREAT pitching coach. As a manager? I remember a lot of inconsistency.
My biggest complaint about Farrell is he had trouble staying in his lane. Once he became manager, he needed to leave the pitching coaching to the pitching coach. Instead there seemed to be a tug-of-war between the Mgr and the coach in handling the players. He kept meddling, interfering if you will, and the team suffered for it
FIRE CORA PLEASE !!!
Here’s the thing. Attendance continues to decrease. It’s been going down generally for most of the bloom era.
Season tickets don’t have a waitlist for the first time in decades where they’ve advertised it.
There’s been games this season where tickets, including the ones not used, flirted with a 20k sales figure. That’s bad too.
Two things haven’t been happening under bloom: any sort of sustained competitiveness based on players he assembles, and, payroll having some rational relationship to the winning records.
Henry can’t keep being happy with that.
This past offseason Bloom had massive amounts of payroll to spend. This is the team he assembled, relying on former GM’s draft picks to try and carry the team in his FOURTH season in.
These are all reasons to question at what point bloom hits the hot seat.
One fatal flaw in Henry’s thinking is that the TB model he wants so badly, cheap investment for a winning record to rake in tons of cash for FSG to distribute? Whelp, when a team is run like TB, fans don’t have connections to the players and stop paying big money to sit in the seats.
Traffic and accessibility to a ballpark are issues with other clubs. I know for a FACT that Atlanta fans have a harder time and driving time getting both to the old park and the new one than Rays fans ever had. And, it was also in an area with nothing to do safely at the old park. Didnt keep fans away, because they connected to their star players that stuck it out for long terms. And also remember, ATL used to recieve revenue sharing, and, now I believe they are payors (at least I know they don’t receive.)
Run a club like TB, your revenue will drop. And it has.
Tampa Bay would not have signed Devers to his $300+M extension. How much has revenue dropped? How much has profit dropped?
The Red Sox averaged 30K fans over the first 7 home games this year. This should improve as the weather warms up (they drew 36K fans last night). They averaged 32K fans per game last year. In 2018, they averaged 35K fans per game. Revenue is probably down a little.
Link for attendance numbers:
espn.com/mlb/attendance
Right now Boston ranks 15th in attendance. During the resurgence before bloom it was always regularly above the top 10.
You need to remember, there are certain fixed costs to hosting a ball game. An old stadium like fenway is likely more maintenance intensive than some others. The increases to MA minimum wage don’t help that bottom line to start with.
And the official released numbers don’t usually match the butts in the seats, it’s tickets sold.
So what you’re missing is that whether 20k people show up, or 36k people show up, aside from water bills for the restroom the basic costs are the same. (Then youve got concessions which only cost more as you sell more.)
So those 3, 4, 5, 6k seats you don’t sell were pure profit off the top. Then, you lose concession and merchandise sales from both the unsold tickets, AND from the tickets resellers bought but went unused on game day. Again, that’s off the pure profit from the top.
So, you can say, oh it’s only a 15% drop in sales, and maybe 25% drop in concessions, but, just thinking of businesses in general it wouldn’t be out of hand to think speculatively that it could mean losing 1/3 of your gameday ‘profit’
Revenue and profit in an industry like baseball isn’t a simple increasing slope graph. It’s a high floor with slow climb.
As I posted above, the Red Sox only averaged about 3K less fans per game than in 2018 when they won the World Series. Please post some sources to back up what you are claiming. We really are in no position to comment on the total revenue and profit of the Red Sox.
3K less fans per game last year compared to 2018
Sure we can. Its mlbtradeRUMORS, not MlbtradeNEWS. Most of the content here is speculation, although, ideally it should be reasonable in nature.
Go to your own link. You’ll see the ticket sales was in the high 35s low 36ks, but just as often into the 37k ranges as you scroll through the years. Even 2019 saw 36.1k avg. Then you get to the bloom years and it dropped. Precipitously.
Now, in absolute numbers, 2021 was impacted by covid caps. But the notable takeaway was the redsox fell to #11 league wide, and, as restrictions lifted, interest waned. Your own link, aside from the 2020/2021 covid seating restrictions, Boston never had a lower average attendance. Not since espn kept records starting 2001. Not once.
02 and 03 were close, as the team enthusiasm was building and ramping up, but then were dependably near 36k to over 37k. Even 2019 saw over 36k. A normal ‘bad year’ for the sox hovered around 36k for the last 2 decades.
3700 less per game showed up in 2022 vs 2019. 2022 avg ticket price was $61.71. In 2019 is was $59.32
Www.statista.com/statistics/203455/boston-red-sox-…
61.71 x 3700 is over $228k per game, 81 games that’s $18.495m, 100% pure profit, not just revenue.
If we take the fan cost index from the athletic, theathletic.com/3329568/2022/05/24/padres-mets-ray…
A group of four checks in at $385.37. We subtract the $246.84 ticket cost, that’s $138.53 on just concessions and parking, and, excluding team store purchases across the street, a per fan number of $34.63.
Again, 3700 off a bad season like 2019, that’s a loss of $128,140/game, or, $10,379,360. That’s $29m in profits just from fans who chose not to buy a ticket, and, it’s not even the average for the 2003-2019 years. 2019 was at the lower end of the spectrum.
If you attended many fenway games in person,l through the years, you’d know a lot less people are in the seats than the figures coming out ofnthe front office. It wouldn’t surprise me to hear they’re missing another $50k or $70k in concessions from people who don’t come, let alone all the late showers that never used to happen.
And, that $29m doesn’t include memorabilia and apparel from across the team stores, it’s just tickets, food, and parking (and the sox don’t make nearly any money off parking) so, when you consider
All said and done, when gameday figures say if a 36k average attendance season the gross REVENUE peaks around 280m a season per the athletic, and, youre losing a guaranteed $29M in PROFIT from sales that don’t add to your costs, I dont think it’s hard to imagine that that 30m could be upwards of 1/3 of your ‘profit’ from gameday on an assumption it costs 190m a year in taxes, infrastructure, employees, cleaning/operating costs, utility water/electric bills, employee payroll/unemployment taxes (which, on state and federal levels are a majority of the salary itself again if you’ve ever been in a position of authority to keep books and make payments).
It’s a noticeable number to John Henry, rest assured.
AITSTYW – When you break down all the sources of revenue for the Red Sox the ticket sales including the high priced suites are not going to hurt Boston enough to make a move. Embarrassment, humiliation and fatigue related to dealing with the fan base complaining are all great motivators.
They make so much profit that it’s hard to hit them in the pocket book.
35,747 – 32,408 = 3000 in your book?
That’s bloom math. Only off by 27,459 fans for the year, or, almost an entire game.
It’s also cherry picked as a lowest year in the bunch, and, not the most recent or even a good comp. Better comp might be 2019, when expectations fell short due to injury which was how, we are told, 2022 would up how it did.
KD: Agreed.
GASoxFan: The Red Sox drew 36K fans yesterday and 36K fans today….after losing 4 in a row to TB. The outlook for attendance seems good to me. John Henry’s opinion is the bottom line. If Bloom stays, he approves of the revenue situation. If Bloom goes, he does not.
Nothing wrong with using the 32K average attendance from last year as the team on the field is similar. The 35K garage attendance from 2018 is good to compare it to as they won the division and World Series that year. Yes, there is actually about a 3,300 fans per game difference. I’m not sure $29M is a huge deal to John Henry. He paid a $30M signing bonus to Yoan Moncada and a $30M penalty for that signing to MLB not that long ago.
35K average attendance from 2018
suit – With all due respect, attendance is not something you want to argue about.
Last year they averaged 32,409 which was the lowest non-Covid since 2000. That’s 23 years ago my friend, and back then capacity was 4K less than it is now.
As for this year’s attendance, every home game has either been the Opening Series (always a bigger draw, especially on weekends) or the Angels (two of the biggest stars in MLB).
But really, ticket revenue is the important number. If the Sox starting selling tickets as low as $2 each, as other teams like the Jays have done for years, then that will pump up the attendance figures.
suit – Math time!!!
2018 average attendance – 35,748
2022 average attendance – 32,409
Decrease in average attendance – 3,339
2022 Fenway Average Ticket Price – $61.71
3,339 times $61.71 times 81 games = $16,690,025
Are you really saying $17M reduction in ticket revenue is not significant?
suit – It saddens me that you’re attempting to portray the 36K in Friday’s and Saturday’s games as a reflection of fan desire to see the Red Sox, when we all know it’s the one and only series where two of the best players in MLB history will be appearing at Fenway.
But sure, all those fans came to see Chang and Casas instead of Trout and Ohtani … whatever you say ;O)
Fever: I don’t know if $17M is a big deal or not to John Henry. I suspect it is not the end of the world or the end of Bloom.
Fever: So, 36K people came to Fenway just to see Ohtani? I doubt it. Fenway’s capacity is 37,305 (day) and 37,755 (night). They only averaged 35.7K fans per game in 2018 when they won the World Series. John Henry should expect attendance to be down a bit this year.
Fever – you’re missing 2 components to the puzzle.
1) no concession and merchandise spending. Those count too.
2) why use 2018? It was lower than 2019, lower than 2017. Lower than 2016. Clearly an attempt to skew the numbers by using a low point in attendance what wasn’t even the begin of any slide just to try and minimize bloomage (a nice new term for bloom-damage)
Why use 2018? The Red Sox won 108 games in 2018! If a team that wins 108 games does not draw fans to the ballpark, nothing will. Very simple logic.
If that’s your logic, to take the highest numbers, why not take 2019s as the last year before bloom?
Or an average through the last 2 decades? Or, the pre-bloom average since seating capacity was the same when the fenway upgrades were completed?
No, you picked the lowest recent year you felt you could get away with. Downplaying the total by shortchanging almost 28k fans Ober the season even then backs that up
LOL. I didn’t even look at the other years. If a good team draws fans to that ballpark better than bad teams, what better year to choose than 2018 when they won 108 games. Very simple. Perhaps this is really pointing to attendance being unrelated to the how many games the Red Sox win.
GASox – Excellent post as usual, I totally agree!!
I’ve mentioned many times the lack of a connection to players that has driven down the Rays attendance despite on-field success. Once Longoria left, there was nobody. Every time a player was great, he was gone a short time later.
Maybe now the Rays have finally started changing their ways, signing Franco longterm. We will see what happens with Randy.
And yes it’s VERY easy getting to and from The Trop, so many entrances and exits for I-275 and I-375. Is there heavy traffic on the highways? Of course there it is, it’s Florida … every major city in that state has traffic because everyone wants to either live there or vacation there.
The only thing I would slightly disagree on is Bloom’s attendance figures. 2023 is only his second non-Covid year ;O)
Fever, I also think 2021 is fair game for one reason – other clubs also suffered from covid capacity restrictions. Difference is, fenway lagged behind the curve as it didn’t hold its proportional level compared to other clubs by slipping to middle of the pack, down from inside the top 10
That’s brutal news on Duval. It isn’t that Refsnyder and Tapia can’t hold down the fort, both of them are decent players. It’s more that other than Duval, Devers and to a lesser extent Verdugo, no one on the team is hitting. Guys have to step up before they get buried.
sycophant – In 13 PA’s Tapia has a .968 OPS, I don’t know why Cora refuses to play him more. He’s certainly got the speed in the field and on the bases.
Because Cora is a slave to the “bat right handed players against lefty starters” mindset. You’d think he could spare a minute to look up the stats and see that Tapia has hit lefties as well as righties over his career.
At age 29 Tapia has a career wRC+ against lefties of 71 which is terrible.
I know 13 PA is a large sample and representative, but just for the heck of it, what is his OPS if you take out his home run off of a position player in the 9th inning of a blowout
Duvall wasn’t going to maintain that torrid pace either so others were always going to have to step up. Kiké, Casas, Turner, Yoshida and Arroyo all have plenty of room to improve over what they’ve shown so far.
I think it’s fantastic news that he can come back sometime this year. Anyone who heard or saw the injury, knowing about his wrist issue last season, had to assume there was a significant chance he was out for the whole year.
The team skews so left handed that it really compounds the impact of losing Duvall, beyond the production on his baseball card. They were probably already short one starting RHH. This is a team that just batted a lefty leadoff and cleanup with a LHP starting, and neither of those players was Devers. Anyone complaining about Dalbec being up or Chang playing so much is conveniently ignoring how few RHH options are on the MLB team or available in the upper minors.
Why not move Sale to the pen until he finds his stuff? I know he’s the ‘Ace’ and all. But watching him right now is brutal. Give him a spell in pen to shake off the rust.
DBH – Too soon to move Sale. He’s had only 3 starts since returning healthy, he deserves a few more starts.
Ya, I’m not hating on the dude, Fever. I just think he could benefit from an extended spring training in the pen. Why not do that and give the young guns a couple extra starts to see if the shine? Honestly, could they do any worse than Sale at this point?
The upside to Sale vastly outweighs the upside to any of the youngsters at this point. Also, with the rest of the team playing the way they are, it really wouldn’t make that huge a difference.
Then youve got to question the clubhouse impact, how do you think Sale would take to that move when Kluber also stinks to high heaven, and, youre talking about putting paxton in the mix?
Tell Sale to do as he’s told.
Last time someone did that he ended up cutting his uniform into little pieces
BH – You have to look at the history of Sale and other TJ surgery star pitchers.
Fernandez before he passed away came back and it took roughly 10 starts for him to get back to the old Fernandez. Same with so many of the big names that had TJ including Verlander, deGrom, Scherzer etc.
Sale needs to work through 10 starts before he’s going to start resembling his old self. His stuff comes back first and his control comes back last. He just needs time so the good news is if he doesn’t get hurt and the fool known as Cora doesn’t put him in the bull pen or middle relief he should be back in form around June. Since this year is a waste, they simply need to do the right thing for Sale and quit trying to force this season into anything other than disaster.
Man, I feel for Duvall. He couldn’t keep up that pace, but it would have been nice to see how far he could take it. Wish him the best in his recovery. Look forward to seeing many more shots at slaying the Green Monster.
Run – When Duvall does return, which hopefully will be this season, I hope he DH’s with Turner at 1B and Kiké in CF and Masa in LF.
I do NOT want to see Duvall playing OF again, unless it’s in an emergency fill-in situation.
Duvall shouldn’t be an everyday CF but he’s an outstanding defensive OF especially in the corners. It would be a waste to keep him at DH. Injuries happen.
Arma – Watch the entire video on his two most recent injury plays, last year and this year. He totally botched each play, and it’s not normal to be injured the way he was on each play.
Injuries happen? How often have non-leg fielding injuries happened to everyday OF’ers like Dugie, JBJ, Renfroe, Kiké, Mookie, Benny, etc.
This is the second major wrist injury for Duvall over a 9 game period, that’s far from normal.
Last year, he was injured in CF, where he wouldn’t have been playing on most teams (but had to because of a lack of CF depth in ATL at the time: Pache wasn’t ready offensively, Harris II needed seasoning; and confidence was high on Duvall in CF since they won a WS with him in CF as an emergency option). Duvall should still be able to field an above-avg COF, unless you’re hiding some OF def depth somewhere.
Pache was already with Oakland
Run – Where are you getting your bad info from?
He was playing LF when he got hurt last year.
Look at the video, it was yet another freak injury … he barely tapped the wall on the left side of the field, along the LF line.
Here’s the box score, he was in LF.
baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL202207230.shtm…
Fever- So in other words an outfielder who can’t play the outfield. Hmm why does that sound familiar?
Mango – Haha … well, there’s “can’t play the outfield” and there’s “can’t play the outfield without hurting themself trying” ;O)
Franchy and Duvall fall in the latter category.
@rundmc
Duvall is a great dude, he seems to always take time to autograph for the kids in attendance. I’ll never forget the 2019 NLDS. Folty had just gotten pulled after pitching a scoreless outing, (this was before the dreaded SunTrust Massacre of game 5.) And Snitker calls on Duvall to pinch hit off of the bench. Everyone in attendance started booing the decision, and then Duvall proceeds to launch a clutch pinch hit home run!
Nothing gets my day off to a flying start like injury and pain news for he Sawx. They can never suffer enough to suit me. LOL.
Vive – Then you will really enjoy this season!
That feeling you’re getting is called jealousy. Maybe, It will go away someday when the Yanks or Mets win one again. Double the teams and a quarter the WS victories this century hurts.
Give it a rest. They didn’t win four in five years like the Yanks.
Which century was that? Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle were all great players and George Steinbrenner was a great owner., but they’re all dead too.
The 27 World Series wins and 40 pennants still count, dude. No statute of limitations.
Hey Noid…
Most of the 4 of 5 bunch is very much alive. No other team in the history of baseball has won 4 of 5, except the Yankees, who have done it three times.
I don’t GiveAShit if it was the 13th century. Still impressive and unmatched.
That’s because you’re an insignificant little pissant. You’re a miserable twit, so you like to make others miserable too. You loser.
LooHOOhooHOOhooSER!
You guys come to other teams articles and throw the first stone, then get offended when someone gives it back. Bunch of bitches in my book.
Sorry New York is as cesspool of stuff. Their teams are a bunch of losers. Double most every other cities teams, and have to remember the good old days to feel good about themselves. How the Knicks, Jets, etc doing these days?
Dont you have to go arrest someone for defending themselves right about now?
Just kidding, you guys are great.
I’m not ‘you guys’.
And the site is MLBTR. I go wherever I want and state whatever opinion I have. I saw the Yanks win four out of five world series. And history says they’ve done it three times.
You’re the one with the silly ‘jealousy’ take. As for Ruth, Gehrig and Mick being dead, that’s ridiculous. Ruth’s bat just sold for $1.85 mil bills. Sounds pretty relevant these days.
You guys come to other teams articles and throw the first stone, then get offended when someone gives it back. Bunch of bitches in my book.
Sorry New York is as cesspool of stuff. Their teams are a bunch of losers. Double most every other cities teams, and have to remember the good old days to feel good about themselves. How the Knicks, Jets, etc doing these days?
Dont you have to go arrest someone for defending themselves right about now? The smart ones have already left for Florida.
Just kidding, you guys are great.
I just root for the Yankees.
I live nowhere near NYC. Have been to Fenway. I’m sure there’s crappy sections in all cities. I avoid them.
You sound like an pissant.
Houck hasn’t mastered a new pitch to make him a starter; move him to the pen. Whit has had one start Vs. the best team in the AL East; cut him some slack. My opinion no one loses a job; not AC or Bloom before the All-Star break.
Schreiber, Houck, Winckowski, Martin, Jansen; add Sale or Paxton for long relief-the survivor is the 5th starter. Blier, Crawford, and Brasier in mop-up.
Whit, Kluber, Pivetta, Houck, and Sale until Bello is ready.
Varitek could be the next manager or GM.
They will hover around .500 most of the season. It will be frustrating but tolerable. I watched a few innings of the WooSox and saw Hamilton was catching. I saw Mata’s name, as well, that’s encouraging. 148 games remaining; long way to go.
That’s Caleb Hamilton catching in AAA, most recently with the Twins. David Hamilton (the speedy, interesting middle infielder from the Renfroe trade) does not catch.
madmc44 – Houck’s record speaks for itself. Right now he and Whitlock are the clear young pitchers of the future. Bello needs to prove he belongs in the category and Pivetta is a solid bottom of the rotation guy. Sale can jump back to the top of the rotation given enough starts and no injuries and Kluber can finish out the year as the 5th starter. Paxton is a hope and prayer and probably won’t even pitch this year because he’s a mishap waiting to happen. He will take much longer to get back to himself than Sale so if he starts in May he might be good by September if he stays healthy.
Whitlock is not better than Houck. They are comparable. Count however many pitches you want but the number of pitches don’t dictate effectiveness. Houck can match Whitlock pitch for pitch. It’s great to have two young pitchers with such bright futures. Stop crapping on one of them so you can emphasize the other one.
Houck does NOT belong in the pen.
madmc4411 hours ago
Houck hasn’t mastered a new pitch to make him a starter; move him to the pen. Whit has had one start Vs. the best team in the AL East;
=============================
I agree on Houck.
1st time thru the lineup .506 OPS K/W 3.56
2nd time .678 K/W 3.06
3rd time 1.055 K/W 2.00 (SSS)
That said, I disagree on Whitlock, for much the same reasons. IMHO, if you have a choice between a mediocre starter and an excellent RP, you convert to an RP. I have no idea if Winc can continue to pitch like this, but having 3 good multi-inning is a huge advantage, especially given a mediocre rotation.
Bloom is terrible— losing good pitchers in the draft, putting together a brittle roster, and losing great players when he could have gotten a good deal with them— a sad state of affairs
Fractures heal faster than sprains
Mid July
Too much sports media drama
Not even last long. 6 weeks from when he injured it is May 21st. Even if he need 2 weeks from then to get some BP and cage work before a rehab outing he should be back by the first week of June.
@Jurassic, the point is that with Bloom being the Chief Baseball Officer, but not having been allowed to pick his own manager, it is a bit more difficult to fire him. My guess is that if the RedSox are 10 games under .500 by June, then Cora will be gone. And if they don’t look better after that, Bloom is done in the very early offseason!
spit – I think there’s an excellent chance you’ll be correct in both those scenarios!!
How long do we need to wait for Bloom’s ‘CHANCE TO WIN’ plan is working…its been four year! I really don’t think he knows what he is doing…and Cora, come on – could Kevin Cash win with this roster? Could Dave Roberts make Kike, Turner and other actually hit a ball?
Bloom has had only 3 drafts and he did not have a 2nd round pick in the first draft. Yet, he has improved the Red Sox farm system from bottom of the pack to middle of the pack.
Speaking of Bloom only having four picks and no 2nd rounder in his first draft, look into what Shane Drohan is doing in Portland – velo ticked up and he is a different dude all of a sudden.
rhswanzey: Two other pleasant surprises so far this year are David Hamilton at AAA and Chase Meidroth at A+.
Bloom got Mayer because his 2020 team was horrendous we can play this game as long as you want
Suit, we’ve been over this.
The players that drive the improvements to the farm system ranks are mostly NOT bloom picks and intl signers. They come from DD and Cherington.
Also, the red sox have moved from around the low to mid 20s to the mid teens, and, is likely to drop once casas bello and company are considered graduated.
The moves he’s made, and the screw-ups he’s created, aren’t offset by the farm system.
11 of the top 20 prospects on soxprospects.com were acquired by Bloom. What are you looking at?
I’m looking at the compared rankings of prospects as a whole across MLB, not within the organization.
One organization’s #10 is easily another organization’s #30
Yes. That should be baked into farm system rankings. The Red Sox have 3 prospects in MLB’s Top 100 prospects. 2 of the 3 were acquired by Bloom.
mlb.com/prospects
AITSTYW – Rankings are conjecture not fact. Remember, Bloom had Downs there when he got him. There is a process that allows GMs to hype selected players in their organization. Do you think Bloom is hyping DD’s guys? NOPE. That’s the only reason the Bloom guys are in the top 100 other than them being a top 4 pick.
Think back nearly 10 years when the Red Sox front office hyped Swihart but not Mookie Betts. Betts wasn’t ranked in the top 100 one year and Swihart was top 50. What’s wrong with that picture? It was front office hype not fact so don’t weigh the prospect rankings as if they are anything more than a political move by each front office. There are thousands of mistakes in the top 100 during the last decade or two. The ranking is a joke and a waste of time. It caters to fantasy players but isn’t based in reality.
KD: Yes, rankings are conjecture. I think it is worthwhile to evaluate prospects and farm systems as an indication of progress.
GASox – Awesome post!! I’ve said the same in the past, TEAM prospect rankings do not matter …. it’s MLB prospect rankings that matter.
If a prospect in the worst ranked farm system in MLB is ranked 20th for that team, does that mean he’s a good prospect? Heck no!!
AITSTYW – Progress? I disagree because a highly ranked farm system gives you no wins. I can agree that a higher ranking suggests the people providing the rankings are thinking the future of that team might be improving but they are wrong so often that I can’t help but disregard them.
Give me a few games watching a guy and a history of his stats and I feel I can make an assessment that competes with any of the services. I’ve been picking prospects in my fantasy league since 1985. I’m comfortable that my hit rate is at least as good as MLB if not better and comparable to BA. ROTOWIRE provides a much different prospect rating and I like it because it’s more performance not political as it’s basis. They have Casas at 17 Mayer at 42 Bleis at 72 and Yorke at 108.
With 30 teams each team should have 3 picks and 10 of the 30 could have four picks. Boston having 3 makes them a VERY AVERAGE Farm System from a performance based prospect ranking system. This suggests they should be around 15. To me, that says nothing about the future.
I like seeing graduates like Julio Rodriguez. They show a successful farm system much more than having 2 or 3 guys who are league average. Boston had a great streak with Mookie, Bogey, Devers. Casas, Houck and Mata could be the next round of standouts. Followed by Mayer, Yorke and Rafaela. We will see!
That’s interesting, KD. I also think the Red Sox now have a middle of the pack farm system.
I don’t have any problem with Cora! I think he is great! Great baseball mind, good communicator, popular with the players. I just think that he has to go before Bloom. Maybe Henry can keep Cora in the wings, and Cora can be the next Chief Baseball Officer!
Well out of those 3, Houck is the natural choice to go back to the bullpen, followed by Whitlock if he continues to struggle. Pivetta is gonna be whinny about it if he gets pushed to the bullpen even though he yo-yos between a great start and #5 starter numbers.
Would be tough to find a worse GM than Bloom. Weak trades, FA signings, and coming into the season with a rotation this poor is inexcusable.
He should be sacked just for allowing Bogaerts to go to the Pads without so much as a convo. Dereliction of duty. Perhaps Theo 2.0???
And into this season without a shortstop
It’s called Patriots Day not Boston Marathon day. !!
It’s Patriot’s Day in MA. Boston Marathon Day around the world. Either one is fine.
Also Maine CT and ND
Having lived in MA most of my life before going elsewhere, I disagree.
It’s an event occurring in MA. The day has a name in MA. Creating another name elsewhere isn’t really right, when you’re referring to what is going on that day in that location.
Agree wholeheartedly. And I’m from NY originally.
For some reason, I think of it as Boston Marathon Monday. I’m aware that it’s on Patriots Day. Ironically, winning runners finish the marathon in about the time it USED to take to finish a baseball game. While marathoners try to go faster, baseball games, like this post, go on and on for way too long.
I went to a doubleheader in 1968 at Yankee Stadium. Yanks beat the Senators 16-2 and 10-0. Despite all those baserunners, one game took 2:30, the other less than two hours.
No pitch clock. No 37 time outs, batters fixing their batting gloves, pitchers strolling around the mound.
bronx – Did they even have TV back in 1968? Even if they did, commercials likely didn’t exist back then. Ever watch Back To The Future?
FPG – Nice response but Bronx is right. The games were not about individuals they were about teams. Players didn’t have batting gloves that needed the velcro tightened after every pitch. Worst case, the hit squatted and grabbed some dirt and rubbed it into his hands or tossed some on his bat handle. The pace was fast because umpires made it fast. They didn’t like people stepping out and would warn hitters for doing it too often. Unlike now where a ball is added, the umpire simply took a bad pitch and improved it to ensure the batter complied with his faster pace.
It is a bit like back to the future!! In 1968 my family had 2 TVs and one was color!!! Thanks for the reference McFly!!
They had Carl Yaz, Boomer Scott, Mickey Mantle and Big Frank Howard, chief. Frank Robbie and Boog Powell.
All at Yankee Stadium. All for $2. All for 2 hours or so.
Sorry you missed it, friend.
Glad I didn’t.
Actually we had RADIO. On the east end of Long Island (Yastrzemski territory) we could get Yankees, Mets & Red Sox games… On the old transistah radio!
Cora needs to go now. Look at todays lineup Wong starting even though Reece is the superior player his career ops against left handers is higher than Wong good ever hope for. Kiki can’t play ss. In center today so a player so a player with a .206 career average and 0 for16 this year starts last year Cora would take Houck out after throwing 60-70 pitches and allowing 0-1 run doing it to him again this year. We have a very good bullpen but they will be arm tired at the end of July
any team with a 200M payroll that is forced to bat rob refsnyder third should consider firing its GM
Well ‘they’ fired Dombrowski to get this guy. It’s obvious the owners wanted the winning then, and are cashing in now.
Can we just cut bait with Sale and go with a youth movement on the mound? This season is a loss anyway, so let’s see what these guys have got.
I think they’re doing that anyway. They’re going to pitch all these starters and see who falls out on their own. Either injury or failure to perform. I don’t think they’ll yank anybody who’s doing well. Even the Young guys.
mikedickinson – Why in the world would a team cut bait with an all-star pitcher coming back from TJ surgery? That makes no sense. He needs at least 10 starts to get back into a groove. If he gets 25 starts and doesn’t do well, then you can start talking about cutting bait but he has earned a right to recover and prove himself.
All these Tender Mercies bestowed upon Duvall.
Very questionable to stick with Pivetta so long today, his pitch count was already approaching 90, and we had miraculously taken a 6-4 lead. WTAF?
Tony – Even the Sox radio guys were questioning why Pivetta was still on the mound.
2023…Boston…2 bit town…sawx…2 bit team…Bloom…2 bit gm. The whole enchilada is barely worth 6 bits. Can’t wait to see this shambles of a club go steaming into September at 20 games out.
I think Cora can be an outstanding manager , given the right circumstances. I am thinking a local little league team. They always play kids all over the place. He already has the coaches pet thing down ( Kiki) .
I’ll be honest… The Sox keep reaching the highest of highs (4 WS wins), and lowest of lows (several cellar dwelling seasons). The Yanks keep drifting along, contending, flawed, old, tuckered out come playoff time. As a Yankee fan, I’d trade the two scenarios in a NY minute.