The Red Sox are on the verge of a boost to their rotation, with starters Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock set to return. Whitlock will be the first, with Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe reporting that Whitlock will pitch Tuesday against the Rays.
Whitlock has been taking a little extra time to prepare for the season following hip surgery in September. While he’s excelled mostly as a reliever for Boston, the team came into the year planning to use him as a starter and it appears they’re not deviating from that. Whitlock owns a 2.24 ERA in 112 2/3 relief innings, and a 4.15 ERA in nine starts and 39 innings over his two big league seasons.
It’s unclear yet who will drop out of the rotation, although Kutter Crawford’s spot would appear most at risk. Boston doesn’t get a day off until April 27, so the boost to their struggling rotation is timely. Whitlock’s return could be closely followed by that of Bello. The youngster is scheduled to make another rehab start on Tuesday, with the hope being he’ll go for six innings. As Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe notes, manager Alex Cora wouldn’t commit to him coming of the IL after that, but if he goes that sort of length without any issues then a return can’t be far away.
Bello, 23, worked to a 4.71 ERA over 57 1/3 innings last year. It was a promising rookie season for Bello, and underlying numbers such as FIP (2.94) looked a lot more favorably on his work. Bello had been dealing with forearm tightness during spring training, forcing his delayed start to the season. Like Whitlock, he figures to be a key part of any success Boston’s rotation might have this year.
Here’s some more from around the game:
- Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle was transferred to the 60-day IL today, meaning the earliest he’ll return will be the end of May. That’s a significant blow for a banged up Yankees bullpen that also lost Jonathan Loaisiga to the IL today. Per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, manager Aaron Boone did not consider Kahnle to have suffered a setback as a reason for the move to the 60-day, but instead that they just anticipated he’d have a longer buildup. Boone added that he could see Kahnle appearing in minor league rehab games in early May. Kahnle re-joined the Yankees this winter on a two-year, $11.5MM deal.
- The Tiger announced (Twitter) a series of medical updates, including that right-hander Michael Lorenzen is scheduled to make a rehab start Triple-A today. Lorenzen did indeed make that start, going 2 1/3 innings (56 pitches) and giving up four earned runs. Lorenzen is returning from a left groin strain. The team also announced that right-hander Beau Brieske continues to receive further medical evaluation on his right upper arm discomfort. Meanwhile, starter Casey Mize is playing catch three times a week and Tarik Skubal is playing catch six times weekly.
Whitlock replacing Crawford is a no-brainer, but I can’t see Bello forcing one of Pivetta/Sale/Kluber/Houck out of the rotation.
Six man rotation would work in this scenario for both easing Whitlock and Bello back in while also helping to manage Whitlock, Bello, and Sale’s workload
Would leave the pen a little short handed though
Teams should look to move away from the thirteen man staff. With the new rules, having a speedy bench player to pinch run is more valuable than ever. I’d use a six man staff given none of the starters have a recent history of going long and work the relievers to each other than the 8th and 9th inning guys going longer. Too bad teams are scared to use pitchers on the bases. They’re supposed to be athletes. I still say limit the staff and get rid of the three batter rule. Such would speed up the game even more and also force pitchers to stop overthrowing.
I suspect by May, Houck will return to the bullpen.
dewey – Of course I agree with you 100% on moving away from the 13-man staff, but I don’t see that happening any time soon because 5-inning pitchers and max velocity relievers have now become the norm. The 13th pitcher on the team is now valued more than a Dave Roberts type bench player who can be a defensive replacement, pinch hit, and pinch run when a stolen base is needed to break an 86-year curse.
I disagree on pitchers running the basepaths, they are not experienced enough and the risk of injury is too high. I still have flashbacks of Steven Wright and what could have been if he didn’t get injured running the bases. Never would have happened if the Sox had an 11-man pitching staff back then.
Rsox – You think the starting rotation’s workload needs to be lightened up even more?
Fact #1 – No Red Sox pitcher has gone more than 5 innings in a game so far this season
Fact #2 – Red Sox starting pitchers are 29th in MLB for Innings Pitched
I cannot see the logic in devaluing the starting pitchers even more by taking away 5 starts each. They get paid far more than relievers because starting pitchers are expected to pitch far more innings.
If Cora suddenly decides to let the starting pitchers go 7 or more each start, then I could see a possible 6-man rotation. But with his tendency to prevent pitchers from facing batters more than twice in a game, I don’t see that happening.
@Fever
The reality is while the Sox have depth, they have two starters that made 30 starts last season (and one was with a different team) and none that have pitched 200 innings since Chris Sale in 2017. Guys are going to miss starts regardless of how many starters are in the rotation
Rsox – So you’re saying a spot starter on an as-needed basis, yes of course Bello could fill that role.
Bello has the best pure stuff out of their entire pitching staff. They’ll have to figure out a way for him to get back into the rotation, as he’s not built for the bullpen. When (or if) James Paxton ever comes back, I can see them moving Houck and maybe even Whitlock back to the bullpen. That would give Boston one of the best bullpens in all of baseball. They would need to cut ties with Brasier and Ort, but that would be a welcomed decision. It will be interesting to see what they do, roster wise, once both pitchers come back. If Crawford and Ort still have minor league options, I can see them both being sent down to AAA (or Zac Kelly). If Ort is out of options then Boston might finally have to DFA either Brasier or Ort…something that will break the fans hearts ;-).
Please hurry up and demote Crawford and Brasier.. Come May, the rotation could look like this Sale, Pivetta, Kluber, Paxton and Bello. With Houck and Whitlock coming out of the bullpen as a sixth starter or long relief.
lamars – I don’t see them jerking around Whitlock or Houck between the rotation and the pen. If either of them get moved back to the pen for a while, they likely wouldn’t be able to go back into the rotation when another starting pitcher gets injured. It takes a while to stretch out a pitcher into a starting role, unless you’re talking about an “opener” role.
@Dorothy: Ort and Crawford both have options left. Brasier doesn’t have options remaining.
DFA, I turn the television off when they bring in brazier with less than a three run lead
FPG = How typical is the news that a guy coming off an injury who may be the best reliever for stressful innings is being put in the rotation immediately on Tuesday?
Somebody needs to pull their head out of the sand!! You have four rock solid starters and Crawford. Crawford goes on Sunday and if he pitches well his reward will be to get pulled from the rotation. That’s typical Cora and Bloom thinking. WOW!!
Maybe the two guys working their way back into a groove should be used like two guys working their way back into a groove rather than one guy getting pushed into the deep end of the pool.
Boston will have played 9 games against two incredibly weak teams and one average team with bad pitching and now they are going to play the undefeated TB Rays. Naturally, that’s a good time to bring back a SP recovering from an injury., right? I don’t get it. Why not start Pivetta on Monday, Kluber on Tuesday, Sale on Wednesday, Houck on Thursday and then decide if Whitlock or Crawford goes on Friday after you see Crawford on Sunday?
Forcing Whitlock to start when you have 3 excellent end of the game guys seems like a bad move to me. I would put him back into the role of putting out a fire when a starter gets himself in trouble. Stop the opposition from getting a big inning and keep your team in the game. Bello and Crawford can fight for the 5th spot in the rotation and the bullpen will be lights out.
Lets hope they don’t leave Whitlock at SP for too long and get him hurt or discouraged by not being successful. He has shown his strength to be the stress innings not starting so why put him at SP when the other young SP can’t do what he can do for the bullpen? It makes no sense to me.
It will be interesting to see what Devers and Duvall can do against a good pitching staff and whether ANY other player will get a hit in the TB series. My guess is Verdugo and McGuire might each get a hit or two in the four game series. Yoshida should walk 4 or 5 times with a hit or two. The rest? Maybe no hits at all.
If they score 9 per game against TB then I’ll start rethinking my position on their hitting. Otherwise, I think we will see what good pitching does to bad hitting.
SP SP SP
Ideally? Their best rotation starts with Sale, Kluber and Paxton. I have no idea whether the 3 of them stay healthy. But I’m fairly certain as those 3 go, so go the RS.
I like Bello and Whitlock. The RS strength is depth of SP after those 5. Pivetta, Houck, Kutter, Winky, Walter, Drohan and Murphy
You gotta stretch out starters. SP to BP is fine. Can’t do the reverse. And as baseball is SP SP SP? It only makes sense to prepare your best 5 for that task
I like the 6 man rotation idea as Pivetta’s forte is eating innings as a 4/5 type
For kids like Whitty? They need to give them a role and stick to it. If he steps up as a SP? He’s exponentially more important than a good reliever. Houck is stretched out. I’m not a fan of sending him to the BP for the same reason. Good chance injuries won’t keep him there long
RS will hit. Top 5 runs scored in AL. Not sexy. But they won’t fail to make the tourney because of their offense. It’s the SP and defense that’s suspect.
Left out Mata. Their best shot along with Bello at a 2/3 type SP
KD – I agree about Whitlock, I think part of the reason Bloom spent so much on the BP is because he wanted to give Whitlock a real shot at the starting rotation. So while I agree he is excellent in that high leverage reliever role, I do think it’s a good idea to see how he does as a starter. Any time you can fill a rotation hole with a quality pitcher without spending a fortune on a proven starter, you go for it.
As for the offense, only the Triple D’s are hitting well (Devers, Duvall, Dugie) and we know Duvall has historically been very streaky.
If Yoshida (.745 OPS) and Turner (.645) can elevate their game up to expectations, THEN I’d be content with the offense.
The remainder of the lineup (Hernandez, Arroyo, Casas, Wong) has been abysmal and none of them have proven to be a quality ML hitter in the past. Not to say that can’t change, but they are very much iffy at best.
KD17
I think that Whitlock will replace Brasier next week and Crawford can be used instead of R.Brasier and Whitlock will be used instead of Crawford in a starting rotation.
Brasier absolute garbage in this BP and I don’t understand as he saved this place and 2 million into the bargain.
Only one explanation – he has compromising photos on Bloom or Cora.
By the way to the operation of TJS Whitlock was SP in the minor league and I think that he better what Crawford.
Crawford can be used as Winckowski in case of fire or as a mid-starter.
At Red Sox next week and to the end of May the real tests will begin on durability and interesting to look at an attack against Tampa.
Impresses me that Yoshida can get on a base and he goes before Duvall.
Duvall very slowly began the spring training but then began to be heated, I hope that this segment will proceed as possible longer, his swings very well look on Fenway.
Such outfielder wasn’t enough in the past season.
I hope that Turner and Casas activate in an attack against Tampa.
bogie2X – I agree that Whitlock could be a very good SP. As of today, Boston has Sale, Kluber and Paxton who are all shaky at best.
These pitchers are long time veterans who may or may not perform well in 2023. The future is Houck and Whitlock as SPs. The problem is bridging to the future. Do we care about winning before 2024?
As long as the old 3 are healthy, the 4 can be Houck and the 5 Pivetta. The team isn’t going to score runs against good pitching so they’ll need a put the fire out guy for when the SPs get in trouble. We could use Crawford and see if he is effective. We could use Pivetta and see if he is effective. We could try any of the young pitchers for that role and make Houck and Whitlock the 4 and 5 SPs.
Which way do you win more games in 2023? With a proven fireman for blow-ups by SPs like Whitlock or testing out a crew of young guys in hopes they can match Whitlock’s known skill? Whitlock can go into the rotation if Boston takes on injuries with the old 3 but this team is going to struggle so is the goal in 2023 to win games or prep for the future?
In this case, I believe the goals are mutually exclusive for Whitlock. He is a SP of the future, no doubt but is he most effectively used as a SP in 2023? My answer is ONLY if you can find a guy who can be a comparable fireman for SPs like he was and can be in 2023. If not, keep him at fireman if so then put Houck and Whitlock at 4 and 5.
TB’s pitching is a big step up from what Boston has seen so far. Don’t be surprised if double digit Ks is a norm against them and any game where you can score 3 runs they will need to win with the bullpen of Schreiber, Marting and Jansen. I wouldn’t be surprised by a sweep but I am hoping for a 2-2 split.
KD – One of the biggest reasons TB has been so successful is their ability to develope pitchers.
Look at Springs, Bloom had him in 2020 and used him exclusively as a reliever. Then he immediately traded him to TB, where Springs was converted to a starter after one season. With TB he’s been brilliant, 2.52 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 78 games!
I agree with you that Whitlock and Houck this present and future of Red Sox.
I very want that they gained a foothold in a starting rotation in 2023 and steel by foundation on next years, in fact heavier to grow home-bred SP, in a difference bullpen.
Problem of Kluber in that for him it isn’t fastball and many look at him as on a past possessor CY, however as a past season showed he is weak against attacking powerful commands and it can be a large problem for Red Sox, it’s very important that Whitlock became better in SP.
Kluber would change placed with Whitlock and to become to those firemen that was Garrett in 2021.
SP: Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Pivetta, Bello, on a paper looks better what starting rotation of Kluber,
In this season very pleasant problem that needs to be decided is the choice of SP and presence of depth.
Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Bello, Pivetta, Kluber, Paxton, Crawford, on approach will be Mata, Walter, Murphy as far as their improvement.
Brasier hiding in a storage closet.
Um, starting is no longer being pushed into the deep end of the pool. There’s the “opener”. Why not give a guy working his way back the first two innings instead of the middle of the game? Baseball has changed a lot. Gone are the days of “rub some dirt on it and give me three more innings”.
whyhayzee – You are responding as if the manager understood baseball as well as you do. He doesn’t. Using Whitlock as an opener would be a more gradual way to get his feet wet. The question is who comes after him? Crawford? Nope, not on Tuesday but maybe later on in subsequent opener situations for Whitlock. That would work but you would lose the key role of fireman or you would have to use someone like Brasier (hahaha) or some other reliever to put out the fires when SPs get in trouble in a middle inning.
I’m in complete agreement about working him back with fewer innings but what I like about Whitlock is he is good in pressure situations and we don’t have many that are. So I say, make him the fireman again so he stops rallies and gets the game to the big 3 in the bullpen. That’s what I would do to improve the number of potential wins.
As a fully credentialed actuary and a former amateur baseball player who’s had family members and teammates and friends play professionally, I can safely say that Alex Cora knows infinity more than I do about managing a Major League Baseball team.
That’s the fun part about these sites. Folks in here will comment, not just about players they’ve seen, but players they’ve never seen.
Whyhayzee – I have spent my life in baseball as a son of a man who went to Spring Training with the Boston Braves and enjoyed his time in camp learning from Casey Stengel. I see things differently than you but it doesn’t mean I’m right, I just spend a lot of time evaluating people.
After my playing days, I trained young kids, high school kids, college kids and boys trying to get college scholarships or trying out for local MLB teams. One of the first things I would do is listen carefully and observe the people at the camps, showcases and tryouts to see who knew what they were talking about and who didn’t. I’m also old enough to remember Cora as a bench warmer. He, like Aaron Boone, was the lazy brother. The guy who used his personality rather than hard work to get places.
Observing his inabilities at manager is very easy. Wrong line-ups, substitutions and when to play small ball are his forte. Maybe he’s force fed the line-up but it sure doesn’t seem it. I remember a game a few years ago where he rewarded Swihart for being the hero the day before and batted him first in the line-up. They lost that day and Swihart never amounted to anyone who was worth sacrificing a game for during a pennant race.. It’s Cora being Cora. He loves bench guys because that was his life in baseball.
I bet you have more talent than he does and I don’t even know you. I bet you understand how to control a pitching staff too. I respect the hell out of good managers. I played for many during my career and I played for bad ones. I knew guys with talent and guys with knowledge of the game and many of the talented guys didn’t have the same level of knowledge of the game. Dan Wilson has baseball acumen that is off the charts because he trained under an outstanding coach. He handled pitching staff’s for Seattle like he did in HS and College. His knowledge of the game dwarfs Cora’s based on the decisions they’ve made at their jobs during their careers. That’s how I know Cora is a pretender not a baseball acumen guy.
Just watch the way Devers’ approaches the game, you can tell everything has been given to him and his knowledge is very limited because he absorbed so little of his training. Then think of Pedroia or Varitek and how they understood the game. You may not remember Cal Ripken but I never saw a smarter shortstop. He understood not just how to play but how to anticipate, where to go with the baseball under multiple scenarios before the pitch and which pitch might raise the chances of a ground ball to his left or right.
Baseball acumen is observable. Make your own assessment and never sell yourself short because you aren’t a MLB person. There are brilliant MLB people and ignorant MLB people just like in all aspects of life.
I grew up right around the corner from Mel Stottlemyre. I solved math problems with Steve Balboni’s sons. I’ve been to Spring Training. I played on the amateur team that Joe Black pitched for in the Plainfield Twilight League. I had teammates who made it as far as AAA. I was teammates with a pitcher who won over 1,000 games (as reported by ESPN). But I have never been in a major league clubhouse or on a major league bench. So I don’t assume anything about anybody at that level. I try to watch sports like baseball but I cannot deal with the terrible officiating that is all but endorsed by the major sports as part of the game. That is despicable and inexcusable. You can assess all you want but when a bad call blows an at bat, an inning, a game, a World Series, I’ve had enough. It’s only a short matter of time before I say screw it and just check the scores. Barely two weeks in and that’s where I am. The fake ball and the atrocious umpiring and I’m done. I used to have umps apologize to me after the game when they missed a call. And umps who would throw you out if you looked at them for more than a glance. Maybe you’re right, maybe Cora is a bum. But I surely have no idea whether that’s the case.
I’d say Houck probably gets bumped next. They’ll use him in the pen.
It will be Crawford, they skipped his start this week with the day off. Thats telling.
Rsmith – Crawford pitched his regular turn in the rotation #4 spot. He got the win going 5 innings in a 4-1 win over the Tigers.
The answer lies in the question: Do the Red Sox see Houck as a possible starter in 2024 (Kluber gone) or 2025 (Sale gone)? If yes to the question then Houck stays. If no, then both Houck and Crawford are out of the rotation when Bello and Whitlock return.
Yeah, I though Crawford was skipped. I watched most of the game, actually Crawford surprised me, looked good.
He’s looked both good and bad for two years now. From 5/13/22-8/2/22, he had an ERA/FIP of 2.60/3.09 in 45 IPs, with a 43/10 K/W in 45 IPs. It’s the stuff he does before and after these streaks that sets him back. Hopefully experience will help him.
JoeBrady
A problem of Crawford is in his stability, he can look an ace and can fall to pieces at any moment that showed the last season, if he was able to improve command control with his arsenal we would get decent SP.
Crawford an ace? What are you smoking?
Bloom’s BFF
You inattentively read that I wrote and inattentively watched Crawford in a past season:
There were segments where he prevailed in matches vs Yankees, Houston, Seattle and then there were segments where he was failed with more weak commands.
He has a good arsenal but stability is not enough.
I haven’t seen any good out of him, that’s my response. One spurt of success means nothing if you can’t find continued success. You actually want Crawford to take on the Yankees? That’s frivolous.
Bloom’s BFF
I like to break up the arguments of such sofa experts as you.
K.Crawford 2022 VS Yankees :
8 April ( home )- BP in extra-inning 1H; 1R.
10 April (home ) – Mid-starter 2 IP; 4 H; 3 SO.
9 July ( guest ) – SP 5.0 IP; 4 H; 1R; 1ER; 1 HR; 2 BB; 6 SO.
13 August ( guest ) – SP 6.0 IP; 2H; 2R; 2ER; 1 HR; 4 BB; 5 SO – quality start.
4 G ( 2 GS ) – 13 IP; 11 H; 4 R; 3 ER; 2 HR; 6 BB; 14 SO.
His ERA about 2.00, 1.30 WHIP, 230 AVG.
You send out Crawford to play the Yankees and see for yourself. He might have had a good spot on the Yankees at one point but the guy did implode against the Pirates. I’m not one to say he will face success against the Yanks just because he has in the past, especially with that high ERA.
“You send out Crawford to play the Yankees and see for yourself”
Didnt Bogie2x just show he has pitched well against the Yankees. Those July and August starts are impressive.
“implode against the Pirates”
But, he came back and had a great outing against the Tigers. Which, its clear, you dont want to mention.
Im not a Kutter Crawford fan, but reading your posts, and the responses, Im becoming one.
@rsmith I just personally haven’t seen Crawford be effective consistently.
I didn’t not mention the Tigers FYI, I forgot he pitched against them.
If he does it consistently, he has my vote to play. I haven’t been impressed from what I’ve seen. The inconsistent guys to me are often the worst because you don’t know what to expect.
As a #5 I am okay with him but I think he gets bumped. I still believe he is nowhere near an ace.
Well after Crawford. He’s a given.
Crawford is already bumped by Whitlock, but I was saying Bello will bump Houck most likely.
Long live The Tiger
brewcat – He’s grrrrreat!
I would say B sharp for a pitching note but you can probably C through that pun. As long as there are no flats, you could call up A minor league option, just in case something bad or sad might happen. I think that’s the key to success.
And of course I’d rather have a dominant 7 than a flat 5.
I wouldn’t diminish the value of augmenting their staff.
How’s Adam Duvall doing now? Last week I got jumped on for saying he was Player of the Week and playing nicely. I was told “it wont happen again until July”. Leading the League in Avg. Slugging, OPS, and 2nd in OBP.
Good chemistry, great hitting, this is a solid team.
Haters be wrong.
rsmith
Red Sox first 30 games:
2019 – 32 HR ( Moreland 8; Betts 6; Bogaerts 4; JD 4; Vazquez 4; Chavis 3 debut; Benny 2; Swihart 1 ) ; 134 hammered runs.
2021 – 37 HR ( JD 9; Devers 7; Bogaerts 6; Verdugo 4; Kike 4; Renfroe 3; Vazquez 2; Dalbec 1; M.Gonzalez 1 ); 149 hammered runs.
2022 – 17 HR!!! ( Devers 5; JD 3; Verdugo 3; Bogaerts 2; Dalbec 1; Kike 1; Vazquez 1; Arroyo 1 ); 104 !!! hammered runs.
2023 – 14 HR in 8 games ( Devers 4; Duvall 4; Kike 2; Verdugo 1; Yoshida 1; Casas 1; Tapia 1 ); 55 hammered runs – without Bogaerts, JD, Story, Vazquez.
I think when Story and Mondesi will return and maybe someone from triple AAA to her this attack will be yet better what expected.
Much better offense than last years. Even though KD17 said it was “huge downgrade” in his hate-biased analysis of the team a couple of weeks ago.
That I can’t forgive Bloom so this omission Bogaerts, his leadership won’t seize to this command.
One thing that I have noticed watching the series against the Tigers is how far superior Torkelson is on catching short hops than any Sox 1B. Has not cost them a game yet, but on at least 3 occasions Sox couldn’t pick it
Tork doesn’t have 48 inch legs
Took is the shortest legged 1b in the game.
He wears Bermuda slacks.
Whitlock/ Bello/ Houck…..Sale / Kluber/ Paxton((healthy) why is it I have Much more faith in one of these threesomes than the other??? And honestly by alot!!! Happy Easter RSN!!!!
I can see Sale and or Kluber having a start skipped in the near future and no need to demote a guy like Tanner Houck.
Another thought perhaps is with a six-man rotation until someone falls out rather than pushed out, the guys can go 6 Plus innings? Should alleviate any concern about an overtaxed bullpen?
Personally, I would leave Whitlock as a two-inning set-up man. I understand starters have more value; but I feel a guy like him is very valuable in today’s game where starters usually only go twice through the lineup.
It’s a great point. 2021 he was just that. And gave them real value in that spot
Do you think that the drop off to Whitty’s replacement in the rotation is a factor? Is the juice worth the squeeze? Could such a role affect his development? I don’t know.
But you’re spot on. He was a weapon as a two inning
reliever in 2021. Certainly worth consideration
Great post.
Lol. Now this is what a 2nd account sounds like.
A bit of a cynic RS? And I mostly agree with your takes. SMH. Not EVERYTHING in your life is a conspiracy theory. Eat a gummie. Relax.
Does this mean the Ort and Brasier era can mercifully end?
Every team has an Ort and Brasier. They just call them the 8th and 9th guys in the pen. Not sure why 2 mop up guys get so much attention on the Red Sox. The teams playoff chances do not rely on them.
There is no 9th guy thru August 31
I know what your saying, but you are talking mostly about smaller market teams where they have drop off on starters, relievers, bench, etc. You have seen for years now that the end part of the bullpen throws far more innings, and many times in closer games than the past. When starters do not go deep and are not expected to it really exposes what used to be the garbage inning eaters.
You cannot throw relievers every day, and we use multiple relievers every game. It really takes a toll. You need the old fashion slop pitchers to be league average, because you will probably throw them 60+ innings these days. I would rather use the slop innings to train up and give experience to younger cheaper pitchers where the stats and outcome will show you one way or the other what you have in those guys.
I always prefer to have better pitchers in any situation, don’t you? If they were better, you wouldn’t relegate them as much as possible for garbage innings. Others need rest, and you never know how many days in a row you are going to have to burn your bullpen to the ground these days. I would call it a work day for a better pitcher in a 12 run lead game instead of preferring to have bad pitchers with dicey control on the 26 man. Why? You want to stock up on garbage innings guys in case those games happen?
I always thought the Dodgers had it right all these decades. The bottom of their pen for over 60 years has usually been a place to test younger guys and give them experience in the exact setting they will need to succeed at or be gone. Many of the great starters for the Dodgers in their history started in the bullpen as well. They understand it’s cheaper, and it allows them to evaluate their talent. There is no better way to see what needs work, what needs to be added, or subtracted for development. Also, when you have prospects taking up the bottom of your pen, you can still call them prospects instead of 30-year-old garbage inning eaters.
William
Very good post.
I support you fully.
Even my dog knows that Brasier stinks already 5 y’s and only Bloom with Cora sure that he will put on weight some time in 36.
You compare the Red Sox to the Dodgers. Red Sox have more WS victories over the past 10 years, using far less payroll. So victory goes to Red Sox strategy over Dodgers. Also, ” Dodgers & decades”? Todays baseball and strategy is far removed from whatever decade your talking about. Pitching staffs are completely different, more pitchers pitching less innings. . Also, Dodgers play in a pitchers park, and Red Sox play in a hitters park, which forces different strategies. There are almost no parallels between the teams.
“I always prefer to have better pitchers in any situation, don’t you?”
No, I dont. Every team has a finite amount of resources, so if my choice is a little better OFer or Starting pitcher, I would always take that over a better mop-up pitcher.
As I’ve said many times, there is a huge hang-over when it comes to talent coming up from the minors due to the previous GM trading away 31 prospects. Red Sox are not in the same position as the Dodgers, and they shouldn’t be compared to them, or the Astros, or the Yankees at this time.
Name the pair of prospects from a 31 men who rendered serious influence on a clubs in that they come forward now 2023.
“pair” I can do better than that.
Manuel Margot .853 OPS
Yoan Moncada .899 OPS
Michael Kopech 6.75 ERA
Jalen Beeks 3.00 ERA
Stephen Nogosek 1.61 ERA
This team would have Moncada in the IF, Margot in the OF, Kopech and Beeks in the Rotation and Nogosek in the Bullpen. Only player he added thats still with the team is Chris Sale. Add to that 4 years of drafting and international signings and we have:
Chris Sale 11.25 ERA
Triston Casas .715 OPS
Which group would you rather have right now? And the first group is without the 4 years of drafting/international signings. Lol. Not even debatable.
2018 World Series win, the gift that keeps on taking.
rsmith
I can’t say that they set on fire the world.
M.Margot career .696 OPS
Y.Moncada career .761 OPS
M.Kopech career 3.79 ERA
J.Beeks career 4.08 ERA
S.Nogosek career 4.14 ERA
C.Sale career 3.07 ERA WSC 2018
T.Casas career .755 OPS
R.Devers career .857 OPS WSC 2018
T.Houck career 3.12 ERA
B.Dalbec career .754 OPS
B.Bello, K.Crawford made debut in a past season and gained experience.
B.Mata, B.Walter, C.Murphy take experience in triple AAA and can have influence already in this season if it will be necessary.
Thanks Dave Dombrowski.
What do Chris Sales stats from his White Sox days have to do with anything? Shouldn’t you be putting his stats from 2020 on? What do those numbers look like?
Devers wasnt a DD guy, he wasnt brought in by DD, he inherited him. Howd he make your list? You want to add Bogaerts and Pedoria’s career stats too?
I forgot Houck. Good point, but its just as likely I forgot someone DD traded away too.
Again— That is with 4 years of Drafting and Int Signings. Casas, Houck, Dalbec, Bello, Crawford — Not one starting position player yet (maybe Casas) and a couple of back of the rotation arms. FROM 4 YEARS of Drafting and Int Signings. That is pitiful.
rsmith
Well. Then take into account statistics of performances of Sale for Boston Red Sox, his Era will be about 3.00.
Dombrowski saved of Devers because Moncada was considered a number one in 2016 in an exchange on Sale.
White Sox wanted Raffy however Dave felt strongly about and didn’t miscalculate.
Also Dombrowski saved Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, JBJ.
Betts is a future member of HOF, Bogaerts is a potential member of HOF.
How was it possible not to decide a problem with Bogaerts to 2022 ?
I thought you were taking except with me saying that DD left behind a blight of talent? No? If your proving something else say so. But, bring up stats from Chris Sale’s days in Chicago makes no sense.
1) So far, since DD got fired, Chris Sale has received 117.5M and delivered 0.5 War. Are you saying that hasn’t hurt the rebuilding of the Red Sox?
2) Dombrowski was the GM in 2016. Are you saying Dombrowski saved Devers from being traded by Dombrowski? Huh?
3) Betts, Benni, Bogey, JBJ, how did he “save” them. He’s the one making the trades.? All he has to do is not trade them, how is that a compliment?
4) Why didnt DD sign Betts when there was availabe money to do it? It wouldve been cheaper then too. Bloom was hired when they were heading into a third year of OverTheCap situation. It was zero his fault. — Its like saying the house is starting to burn, but we’re gonna wait until other people take over before starting to put out the fire, that way we can blame them because they weren’t able to save the house.
rsmith
1. If you will take statistics of performances of Sale for Boston Red Sox his ERA will be about 3.00.
2. White Sox wanted in a transaction with Sale of Devers, however Dombrowski felt strongly,.In a transaction with Sale was included Moncada, a result you know.
3. When DD became GM of Red Sox he traded neither Betts, nor Benintendi, nor Bogaerts, nor JBJ.
4. I don’t accuse Bloom of that he released Betts.
5. I accuse Bloom of that he spent money of Bogaerts on Story, Bloom didn’t gather to prolong X-man – it a fact ( likes me Story, but there wasn’t a necessity to spend 140 million on SS that in the total he played the second base in 2022 ).
1) So we’re not talking about how the Red Sox were left after DD was fired. Got it. Sales stats from 2017, 2018 do not play into that at all. The terrible extension in 2019 does though.
2) A GM with an eye to the future trades no one for Chris Sale and his suspect arm. There were a lot of question marks about Chris Sale’s elbow in 2016. Say DD was going for it all, thats fine and he succeeded. Hurrah! But, thats to the next GM’s detriment.
3) DD inherited a great young crews. He kept all the studs closest to the MLB level and traded away everyone else. He didn’t lock any of them up long-term. All of that says: “Im here to win now, and damn the next guy”. Hurrah!
4) We agree.
5) Maybe you have a point, but the Red Sox were under a lot of pressure to acquire a big money player. Do you remember the comments here at MLBTR”Tampa Bay North” or the talk at WEEI? Bloom didnt have the cap space to lock up Bogaerts and Story was the best he could do. Monday morning QBing is easy. Go to the MLBTR signing page of Story, and show me where you said that then. The page is loaded with mostly praise for the deal.
——————
My point, which you keep detouring away from, is Dombrowski came to win a WS, and did it. Thats great, but he left a blight of talent in his wake to achieve that. These last 4 years of lousy ball are directly related to that. — But the Red Sox are slooowly moving on now, and should be a very good team in a year or two tops.
rsmith
1. I agree partly with you.
A transaction in 2017 looked well and Sale had influence in 2017 and 2018, an extension looked badly in 2019.
2. Bogaerts was prolonged in 2019 with a discount, Betts got suggestion in 300 million refused, Benny was remained by 3 y’s of control after 2019, JBJ there was one year and he didn’t look a candidate on expansion after 2019, his attack was slowed every season ( to pay 11 million only for defence – not very good investment ).
3. Strong pressure.
Bloom so philosophized with this transaction of Bradley, that left 8 million dead money on 2023 from this transaction and gave power right outfielder Renfroe with defence, that for us by weight of gold.
2022:
JBJ – 12 mil. AAV; Story – 23.33 mil. AAV, Paxton – 10 mil. AAV, Diekman – 4 mil. AAV, Robles – 2.25 mil. AAV, T. Show – 1.5 mil. AAV.
Bloom couldn’t accomplish this devil transaction with Bradley, to save Renfroe ( 2022 – 7.7 mil. AAV ) on 2022 – 2023, to heave up ААV of Bogaerts on 5 million and offer to him a sort of 7 * 25 AAV ( as Semien got in Texas ) and all would remain satisfied.
Present that we would have in 2023 and X-man, and Renfroe and satisfy necessities on other positions out of “dead money ” of Bradley.
In the total we have a injury of Story, problem on SS and problems in outfield with defence.
2023
1. Verdugo LF – 6.3 mil. AAV
2. Bogaerts SS – 25 mil. AAV
3. Devers 3B – 17.5 mil. AAV
4. Duvall DH/OF – 7 mil. AAV
5. Renfroe RF – 11 mil. AAV
6. Casas 1B – minimum
7. Arroyo 2B – 2 mil. AAV
8. Kike CF – 10 mil. AAV
9. McGuire C – 1.25 mil. AAV
Such composition would look impressively and in an attack and in defence.
It’s not a matter that he stinks. It is that he is regressing, and never had very good control to begin with. His stuff would play if he could hit the mitt, but he rarely does. I never thought of him as a go to guy (Cora does for some reason), but I did think he was pleasant surprise circa 2018. He hasn’t gotten younger, or improved from being that serviceable back-end guy that could be called on in a pinch when the bullpen was drained for tight spots.
There are two spots in the bullpen atm that are better served by giving younger guys shots/experience as on field try outs. I am not on the Brasier has always sucked bandwagon, because truth is he pitched fairly well for short stretches. My concern is mostly about the two spots being taken up by guys we used to call junk inning specialists.
No, I said they are the opposite of the Dodgers. Please do not compare pitching development for these two franchises. It is a joke. We are perhaps the worst pitching development franchise of the last 100 years. You can place the pitchers we developed, kept and used that are thought of as major impact guys on a business card.
The Dodgers developed more high-end pitching in nearly every decade from the 40’s on than we have since Abner Doubleday. Why? They scout better, they evaluate better, their work with fine tuning pitching is stellar. They also produce more because they are willing to take starters and bullpen arms in the minors and utilize them as back-end pitchers to develop them faster. What they are doing is fairly simple and common sense, and most importantly, works. Cardinals are another good example over history with this approach.
It isn’t a matter of winning World Series in this regard. They are won by a combination of fielders, hitting, pitchers, bench, etc. What I am referring to is pitching development, and team ideology. Whitlock would be an example of a Dodgers approach. The problem is that you have to buy into it as a team philosophy in pitching development, not a unicorn exception.
rsmith
Thats great, but he left a blight of talent in his wake to achieve that. These last 4 years of lousy ball are directly related to that. — But the Red Sox are slooowly moving on now, and should be a very good team in a year or two tops.
__________________________________
I don’t think that Dombrowski left the decline of talent.
Compare all prospects that he gave in transactions from the end of 2015 for 2019 with prospects that he saved ( prospects that began to render influence on Red Sox from 2019 and prospect that is developed and already ready to have influence in 2023 and farther ).
2) DD did lock up Bogaerts until 2022. But, it couldve turned out very bad. Had he gotten hurt or lost production, they wouldve been paying him until 2026. But, all in all it was a good gamble.
3) Theres more to Renfroe than hits the news. He has been a hitting machine, then why is he playing for his 5th team in 5 years? No one wants him long term, why? Drugs, attitude, something else? Don’t know, but if youre going to knock the Red Sox for that, knock SD, TB and Mil as well.
Also, why does Bloom have to be constantly graded on his worst trade? No one ever talks about Rule V Whitlock, Pivetta trade, McGuire trade. Its the whole body of work, not one single trade that decides a GM.
4) I noticed your lineup card involves old players and new acquisitions. (picked with knowledge no one had at the time of the deals) If Bloom had the ability to pick from players he’s had over the past 4 years, he’d pick a good lineup, too. As I said before, Monday Morning QBing is easy.
5) Bogaerts would never sign for 25AAV. He already had a long term contract signed in 2019 that ran thru 2026, with an opt out after 2022. There is no reason for him to take a discount, because there is zero risk if he gets injured.
rsmith
Dombrowski saved a kernel when became a GM and Bloom decided gradually to get rid from home-bred players.
Not to give Bogaerts 25 million in a year he didn’t have money, and on Story 23, 3 million in a year he had money is a foolish act.
Chaim counted up that Sory it can be not worse Bogey at least in defence and he made a mistake.
Was suggestion in 90 million deserving for such player as Xander, that was a command heart?
This was a gob.
Bloom clear gave a hint that does not want to prolong Bogaerts and do deserving suggestion and upon termination of season 2022, he once again was cunning declaring that X-man will be in priority and heaved up with negotiations to the last day.
rsmith
Theres more to Renfroe than hits the news. He has been a hitting machine, then why is he playing for his 5th team in 5 years? No one wants him long term, why? Drugs, attitude, something else? Don’t know, but if youre going to knock the Red Sox for that, knock SD, TB and Mil as well.
Also, why does Bloom have to be constantly graded on his worst trade?
______________________________
Do you want to say that Bloom didn’t see the problems of Red Sox in outfield and that we needed power OF?
Renfroe had good seasons in San Diego and he was underestimated as a player of the first round.
Milwaukee didn’t want to pay 11 million for 2023, for them prospects suite in outfield from triple ААА Garrett Mitchell and Joey Wiemer.
rsmith
Bogaerts would never sign for 25AAV. He already had a long term contract signed in 2019 that ran thru 2026, with an opt out after 2022. There is no reason for him to take a discount, because there is zero risk if he gets injured.
________________________________________________
It was needed to do deserving suggestion of Bogaerts to beginning of season 2022 – 7 * 25 plus an option on an eighth year.
All perfectly saw that presents from itself X-man, he deserved this contract and only Bloom didn’t see.
rsmith
Bogaerts would never sign for 25AAV. He already had a long term contract signed in 2019 that ran thru 2026, with an opt out after 2022. There is no reason for him to take a discount, because there is zero risk if he gets injured.
______________________________________________________
It was needed to do deserving suggestion of Bogaerts to beginning of season 2022 – 7 * 25 plus an option on an eighth year.
All perfectly saw that presents from itself X-man, he deserved this contract and only Bloom didn’t see.
rsmith
Also, why does Bloom have to be constantly graded on his worst trade? No one ever talks about Rule V Whitlock, Pivetta trade, McGuire trade. Its the whole body of work, not one single trade that decides a GM.
___________________________________________________________
I didn’t talk that Bloom didn’t accomplish good transactions, I can distinguish:
Whitlock, Renfroe 2021, Kike, Pivetta, Arroyo, Schwarber Mid 2021, Iglesias Mid 2021, Schreiber, Strahm, Wacha, McGuire, Devers prolong 2023, Duvall, bullpen improved 2023.
Bad transactions of Bloom :
Prolong Barnes mid 2021, Renfroe released,J.Springs 2021, M.Perez 2022, , didn’t prolong Schwarber 2022, Ottavino 2022, didn’t sign closer 2022, Story 2022, didn’t prolong Bogaerts, Robles 2022, Diekman 2022, Paxton 2022, Shaw 2022, Brasier 2023.
I try to be maximally objective.
rsmith
Brasier and Ort unidimensional relivers with rapid direct fastball and I’m a find no the sense to hold them both in bullpen, for us problem with left-handed persons – except Bleier and injury J.Rodriguez now nobody.
Brasier imposed in trousers in Baltimore and Detroit in situations no-pressure, I saw a lot on him for these five years.
Why not to give a chance who did prove that on the spring training?
Ort, I have no problem with letting go and they will as soon as Whitlock/Bello get healthy.
Brasier (2.8 BB/9, 9.1k/9 and 1.23 Whip over 7 years is not that bad) 5 innings is not a big enough sample size to say ‘Yeah, he’s done’. Its April 10th, 9 games into the season, weather is cold. He definitely deserves more time.
It very funnily.
I won’t be surprised if Brasier will stay till the middle of season, 2 million can’t be released simply so.
Are you saying they wont release him because of 2mil?
I can make a mistake but something prompts me that Brasier can stay too long in this command far longer subject to condition that Ort have variants in minor league even at the return of Whitlock on Tuesday.
That 2.8 walks is deceptive. I have seen nearly every single one of his outings in his career for us. When he hits his target, it is a pleasant surprise to him and the catcher. It’s like watching Felix Doubront. You marvel at the ability to run deep counts, and waste pitches entirely. In a non contact, high strike out hitters league he struggles to get most of the better hitters to bite. He doesn’t get hurt by bad stuff. He gets hurt by bad counts. It isn’t stuff, it is the ability to consistently throw pitches that reach the location called for.
If Brasier knew where the ball was going, and at his age he should, I would be on board with him. He doesn’t. Not asking him to be Maddox either. I am asking for the spot to be filled with a younger prospect that may have the ability to be a Brasier with better control.
Youve “watched every single outing in his career”? All 230 of them over the last 11 years? Spring Training too? What about Minor Leagues?
Okay, You win, youre right.
Yes. I may have missed a total of about 15 games since MLB package was available because I was outside the country, and in those cases, I went back and saw a few of them since I am able to do it when I got back. I get every game including the ridiculous AppleTV games as well. So yeah, I watch every game. If I don’t see it live, I watch it taped. I have seen with near certainty either all of his outings for the Red Sox, or all but 1.
It really shouldn’t be surprising for a retired guy.
I did say “for us.’ So no, not high school, college, minors. Actually, I am fairly sure I get all the spring training games too, outside of the North Eastern game, so probably those too. If they don’t show it, it has audio, but I wouldn’t include those, nor spring training.
I missed “for us”. I can see that, thats a reasonable amount.
Ort was good in his last appearance. Brasier is an underachiever. He should be so much better than he is.
Does this mean the Ort and Brasier era can mercifully end?
=============================
You might be early on the Ort call. He has a 6/0 K/W with -0- HRs.
Glad I have some influence at Starr market so that if Brais continues on this path I can get him a job in produce dept… so far his pitches are the size of grapefruits coming in…
Yesterday, Brasier gave up three runs in the ninth inning with a twelve run lead. Would it be better if they used someone “better than Brasier” for that inning?
Do the math. If your starter goes 6 innings every start and you lose every away game, you still need 405 innings out of your bullpen. If overload happens beyond 60 innings and you have 5 great relievers, that’s still 105 innings of slop to be attended to by the scrubs.
whyhayzee – Your math is good but your choices aren’t. Brazier can’t be kept on the roster to throw in games where the lead is huge. We need a different reliever who can handle more situations and doesn’t toss gasoline on the fire.
You have identified a need that Bloom must fill for the team to maximize wins.
KD – Well said! Roster spaces are too valuable to keep a “Mop-Up Only” reliever.
It reminds me of some who praised Rick Porcello for being an “innings-eater” when he was putting up ERA’s over 5.50 – talk about sheep being brainwashed!
It’s simply a matter of being up 12 runs and sending the guy out there to throw strikes and go home.
Not everyone realizes that factor. If the score is 3-2, every pitch counts. If the score is 12-3, you wind up throwing pitches right down the middle to avoid walks.
Joe agreed… I remember going to a game same situation where Julian Tavares was brought in.. Redsox blow out and he proceeded to give up a few hits and a couple of runs( 13-4 final) the faithful was unmerciful on him) I’m like geez if you won’t use him in a 13-2 game then when… r smith below mentions below if high leverage situations depend on Ort / or Brais were in big trouble and I believe FPG mentioned Brais won’t be Dfa while ort/ winchocski have options so it looks like my pal Brais is around for a little while longer and the only thing we/I can hope for is hitter pull a muscle swinging to hard as he puts it right down the middle!!
There is not a major league pitcher alive that thinks it is a positive to throw strikes down the middle to get lit up whether the score is 3-2 or 12-3. People talk about adrenaline outings all the time, but believe me, you are pitching for your stats, your contract, and in many cases, your job. When you are the garbage inning guy your job is on the block all the time. The garbage guys are replaceable, and they know it. If anything, they press.
If you want to understand why I think Cora is not qualified for manager, his handling of the bull pen has been terrible since he arrived.
We all know the three studs we have in the bull pen
1 – Jansen
2 – Martin
3 – Schreiber
How hard could it be to figure out Jansen gets the 9th, Martin the 8th and Schreiber the 7th? Yet again, Cora has shoved someone not terrible reliable into the role of the 7th inning guy so Schreiber throws the 6th. Last time it was Brasier this time it’s Winckowski.
Why not let the Starter pitch 6 innings and 90 or less pitches rather than 5 innings and under 75 pitches. SPs are conditioned to throw a full season of 90 pitch games. The bull pen arms are being taxed early in the season and Cora is playing Russian Roulette with winning.
A small lead with Sale and he gets pulled, now a small lead with Crawford and he gets pulled. If the SP goes 6 the big 3 clean up and it’s a win. If the SP goes 5 Cora is daring the opposition to hit the weak link in relief and lose the game. It makes absolutely no sense but he’s been doing it since 2018. Horrible in game manager. Knows nothing about how to use his bull pen and starters to maximize their value.
KD – Cora relies too much on matchups, instead of going with the hot hand more often. Hopefully he does better in Tampa, a team that has been red-hot albeit against three of the worst teams in MLB.
And we are all holding our breath on Duvall’s wrist injury, the same wrist that was injured when his season ended last July.
FPG – When you say match-ups, which kind do you mean?.
1 – Match a better pitcher with the good part of their order
2 – Check the batting averages against specific pitchers to see a historical view
3 – Righty vs Lefty
4 – Ground ball needed so use the ground ball pitcher
5 – Who hasn’t worked recently
There are many ways to pretend you are knowledgeable of how to run a pitching staff but a very common mistake is to think what has happened in the past will necessarily happen in the future.
I figure a guy as bad at his job as Cora is should use a simple concept. Nothing elaborate like putting someone in the outfield to signal to another person in the dugout to bang a drum, just give your three best relievers specific innings and that way you don’t get second guessed. It’s your formula.
It’s funny, if your match-up theory is correct, then think about the odds of being wrong over 75% of the time? He should call Ripley’s!!
Just scrolled through the Orioles at bats today. They had 11 called strikes out of the strike zone, 8 of them on first pitches. Baseball truly sucks.
Yes even watching the Yankee game yesterday saw so many poor balls outside the Zone called strikes. I agree. Seems guys like Stanton just rolled their eyes and carried on.
hayzee – I don’t mean to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but is it possible the umpires have been instructed to call more strikes on borderline pitches in order to speed up the game? I wouldn’t put it past them.
FPG – Completely agree.
They have daily conference calls and a suggestion by the head umpire to err on the side of the pitcher this week or month is not a far fetched idea. Speed clearly is something MLB wants to brag about so all the borderline fans can get out of the park faster and back to the important things in life!!
The obsession with speed and other issues related to fan boredom because they live in a high tech world are really annoying. As a chess player, I sure hope someone never tries to improve the game by allowing pawns to move 3 spaces on their initial move to speed up the game. For me that would be equivalent to the time clock implemented this year.
Juice the ball, speed up the game, allow everyone to gamble on games, prevent local fans from viewing games when ticket prices are designed for corporate write-offs not local fans and now cut in commercials during the 15 seconds a pitcher has between pitches because we need to know about the latest deal from AT&T!!. WOW they are improving the game!! hahaha
KD – I totally agree! Some of the changes I like, but many I don’t.
And MLB is finding more new ways to screw the fans every year.
Did you know you can’t buy single game tickets at the ballpark anymore, not even on day of game.
That’s because they now force you to buy them online … which means paying all those additional online fees.
Just like they don’t allow you to bring food or beverages into the stadium. If you’re thirsty or hungry, pay $8 for a soda or $9 for a hot dog. It’s disgusting!
Last time it was Brasier this time it’s Winckowski.
==========================
It might be because Winc’s been our best pitcher so far. It might not last, but right now, he has a 6/1 K/W with a 1.50/1.84 ERA/FIP.
Joe it’s obvious that Winckowski went to work in the off-season.
Last year he telegraphed his slider it came out of a slightly different angle and was much easier for big league hitters to pickup. This year he is tunneling that pitch much better that coupled with his mid 90’s sinking fastball that is hit in the ground when contact is made makes him a quality and important arm coming out of the pen.
I think he was just making his big league adjustments and last year was very valuable for both him and Crawford they got a lot of big league experience. I like both of those guys moving forward as quality big league relief arms both should be on the big league team.
The Red Sox have a decision to make I would love to see Brasier dfa and Crawford kept in the pen. Brasier’s fastball on paper is fast but it’s also arrow straight very little movement he has to be super fine with it he has to hit corners and when he doesn’t he gives up a lot of hard contact.
The Red Sox have decisions to make going forward if Bello looks good after his next rehab outing he needs to be in Boston and in the rotation. He is easily the highest upside pitcher Boston has in the rotation not named Sale. He throws a two seam sinker that is a true bowling ball fastball he couples that with an outstanding changeup, a quality slider and a high 90’s four seam that he can throw up in the zone. His control and command is his only separator on whether he will be 2 or a 3 and a true #1 ace pitcher. He has to be in the rotation which means either Whitlock or Houck goes back to the pen. I think I’d rather see Houck back in the pen at least initially and see how Whitlock’s better starters pitch mix plays.
I see some people are arguing that Dalbec should be up instead of Casas this is just ridiculous. I have said all along there will be an adjustment period once big league pitchers figured out that Casas isn’t chasing. Right now big league pitchers have figured out he won’t chase so now they have determined that they want him to earn his way on and they are throwing him more strikes so now he has to adjust he has to start making hard contact with pitches in the zone once he makes this adjustment he will start to rake. At that point big league pitchers will make another adjustment if they find out a fatal weakness in his swing, such as the one Chavis has. Once he adjusts to that, assuming he doesn’t have a fatal weakness that pitchers can completely exploit, that’s when he becomes the middle of the order dangerous bat I believe he will become. Casas needs to be with the big club Dalbec has already shown a huge propensity to chase pitches off the plate and he hasn’t made the adjustment. It’s likely that Dalbec is what he is a AAAA player moving forward and there is no reason to think he will be more effective then Casas even as Casas goes through his big league adjustments Casas just has the much better hit tool and potential as a big league hitter.
Nice analysis.
IRT to the rotation, I’d like to see Houck in the BP. I still don’t see him as a starter, and we (anyone really) can never have enough two-inning shutdown RPs. I feel the same with Whitlock, but he has a better selection.
And Casas is better than Dalbec. I wouldn’t give up on Dalbec, but he needs to use the entire field. And I’ve seen him acknowledge that, but he continues to fall into bad habits. I’d keep him in AAA the entire year to see if they can change that, and rotate him between all four IF positions. He’ll never seriously play 2nd or SS, but a tiny amount of flexibility is better than none.
Do you know that I like in Casas?
He began to beat lefties as on the spring training so in a regular season.
Why not let the Starter pitch 6 innings and 90 or less pitches rather than 5 innings and under 75 pitches.
==============================
Those days are gone. In 2012, there were 31,913 PAs the 3rd time thru the lineup. By 2022, it was down to 21,636. It’s early, but 2023 projects to 18,216. The OPSa of an average RP is significantly better than the OPSa of an average SP.
Another factor: If pitchers know that they’re only facing batters twice, they’ll dump all their best stuff in those two at bats. Pitchers used to plan for facing guys more than twice and pitch accordingly. So it’s a self fulfilling prophecy.
Someday there will be an approach where every player throws one pitch and rotates to a predetermined position. Baseball will be like volleyball. Everyone plays every position and they all run to a new position after each pitch. There won’t be catchers, just a “longstop” position ten feet behind home plate. Games will take 117 hours. It will be great.