The White Sox’ catastrophic start to the season has all but eliminated the team’s playoff hopes before the first month of the schedule has even concluded. The South Siders sit at 7-19 with a -58 run differential. FanGraphs has already dropped their projected playoff odds to 4.8%. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA is even more bearish, at 3.6%.
Unsurprisingly, general manager Rick Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams have come under fire for the calamitous beginnings of the 2023 season, though the team’s struggles date even further back than that. The Sox dropped eight in a row last September to fall from three games out of the division lead to 11 back and a .500 finish. Hahn was candid in discussing his struggles with the team’s beat yesterday (link via Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times).
“I think that makes it clear that my job is potentially on the line,” Hahn said of the team’s awful start to the season. The 11-year GM emphasized that the team’s struggles “sure as heck isn’t on [manager Pedro Grifol] and his coaching staff” and repeatedly said of the team’s struggles: “Put it on me.”
It has indeed been a brutal start for the Sox in just about every sense. Their collective .231/.289/.373 batting line translates to an 84 wRC+ that sits 26th in the Majors. The Sox are 23rd in team batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, 22nd in slugging percentage, 28th in walk rate (6.6%) and 16th in strikeout rate (23.7%). They’ve dealt with their share of injuries, but that’s increasingly looking more like an undesirable feature of this team’s core rather than a bug. The Sox’ depth behind the core group — or rather, the lack thereof — was far from unforeseeable. I wrote about that topic back in late January in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers. It’s been a perennial issue for the team.
So too has the lack of defense. Hahn, Williams & Co. sought to remedy that issue in 2023 by making the tough decision to move on from clubhouse leader Jose Abreu, opening first base for Andrew Vaughn and paving a path to improved outfield defense with Andrew Benintendi in left, Luis Robert Jr. in center and top prospect Oscar Colas in right field. The team’s overall defense is better in 2023 but is still far from a strength; they’re sitting at a combined -10 Defensive Runs Saved, -2 Outs Above Average and, most charitably, a scratch grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. Their 12 team errors tie them for 12th in Major League Baseball. Colas, meanwhile, has looked overmatched at the plate so far.
Chicago’s pitching staff — specifically the rotation — was supposed to be its great strength, but things simply haven’t panned out in that regard. Every member of the rotation, including last year’s Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease, has an ERA north of 4.00. Veteran Lance Lynn and once-vaunted prospect Michael Kopech are both north of 7.00. The options beyond the top quintet of Cease, Lynn, Kopech, Lucas Giolito and free-agent signee Mike Clevinger aren’t much more encouraging; the Sox’ sixth starter, Davis Martin, posted a 4.83 ERA in 63 1/3 MLB innings last year. He’s out to a nice start through three turns in Triple-A this season but also turned in a 6.11 ERA in 13 starts there in 2022.
In the bullpen, the Sox have baseball’s second-worst ERA at 6.06, leading only the hapless Athletics. There was no foreseeable way to plan for Liam Hendriks’ absence, and the Aussie closer’s announcement that he’s cancer-free and eyeing a return to the mound sooner than later is one of the game’s great feel-good stories at the moment.
Even with Hendriks sidelined, the Chicago relief corps should be vastly better than this, however, particularly given the weighty contracts to which they’ve signed free agents like Kendall Graveman (three years, $24MM) and Joe Kelly (two years, $17MM). The Sox are spending more than $42MM on their bullpen in 2023, and while Hendriks accounts for $14MM of that (and has been every bit as excellent as expected when healthy), that still leaves more than $28MM in salary committed to a group that has delivered the second-worst bottom line results in all of baseball.
It’s a dismal look top-to-bottom at the moment, and it calls into question the team’s direction at the trade deadline at a stunningly early juncture of the season. The White Sox would need to play at a 74-62 pace (.544) just to finish the season at .500. If we were to set the hypothetical bar for a playoff berth at 90 wins, they’d need to go 83-53 (.610) from here on out to reach that threshold. Put another way, they’d need to play at the rough equivalent of an 88-win pace (over a 162-game season) just to get to .500 and at the equivalent of a 99-win pace to reach 90 wins.
Based on everything we’ve seen thus far, that’s decidedly unlikely. The overwhelming likelihood is that the Sox will enter the summer as a sub-.500 club with minimal playoff hopes. Even if they were able to claw back into within arm’s reach of the AL Central or a Wild Card chase, the team’s farm system is once again fairly barren, and owner Jerry Reinsdorf hasn’t appeared keen on taking payroll much beyond its current levels.
The greater likelihood would be one of selling off some veteran pieces, though that comes with its own questions. It seems doubtful Reinsdorf would want to commit to a full rebuild so soon after emerging from a yearslong effort to do just that. The Sox could trade off players who are only controlled through the end of the 2023 season or perhaps through the end of the 2024 campaign, but outside of Tim Anderson and Lucas Giolito, they don’t have many appealing players in that group. And, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic rightly pointed out this morning, trading away only impending free agents would need to signal that the team feels it can compete in 2024, which would probably require the type of bump in payroll that Reinsdorf resisted heading into the current season — when he actually lowered payroll on the heels of a disappointing 2022 season.
There’s still a possible avenue to better days with that approach, however. The team’s commitments to Lynn, Grandal, Kelly, Clevinger, Diekman, Elvis Andrus and Hanser Alberto are all up at season’s end. That’s about $65MM in combined salary. Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, notably, are free agents as well. The Sox currently have about $109MM committed to next year’s club, per Roster Resource, with a tiny arbitration class (Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, Garrett Crochet).
The Sox could have as much as $60MM to work with this coming offseason before they get back to their current Opening Day payroll levels. That’s quite a bit to work with, but they’ll also need to add multiple starting pitchers, try to fix the bullpen and address multiple spots in a deficient lineup and defense — and do so with greater success than their last waves of free-agent investments (e.g. Grandal, Graveman, Kelly, Dallas Keuchel).
Ultimately, there’s no easy path to salvaging the 2023 season, and the long-term questions are every bit as confounding, if not more so. Hahn surely knows he’s on the hottest of seats, but even with a change atop the baseball operations pyramid, the team will be facing bigger-picture questions. Will Reinsdorf push payroll to previously unseen levels in an effort to spend his way out of the current mess? Would he green-light another rebuild at 87 years old and only a couple years removed from a four-year step back from competitive baseball? The White Sox are in one of the least-enviable spots in all of baseball right now, and the questions will only grow louder if the team can’t quickly begin to correct course.
Tim Anderson will be in LA soon enough
Yeah and Jackie Onassis will drag THAT team down to lower depths as well.
The Dodgers want SS’s that can field.
@Samuel: Then they better look at games Anderson has actually played in the last two or three seasons. His defense ain’t that good.
@avenger65, yes, that is what Samuel is saying. TAs defense is not that good. However, it actually is average defense overall, and his range and arm metrics are above average.
@John Kappel: I don’t mean to sound like a smart ass, but metrics mean nothing to me. I don’t go by numbers. I go by what I see to know if a player is good or not. And you’re right, I misunderstood Samuel’s point.
And what you see means nothing to me.
Just ran into T.A. At ALDIs on 47th Loomis yesterday. He had a cart full of goodie’s. I was sporting my Scott Fletcher Sox’s jersey from 1983. Yes the scooter himself. We chatted for a few minutes as he was stocking up on Fritos . He said he will be traded to Oakland mid season for prospects. You heard it here first
Then they should have kept Seager
LOL
Usually it’s the Yankees grabbing the next star player but since Andersons a shortstop, the Yankees know that they are set there for years with the future HOFer, who, of course, is Anthony Volpe.
Dude I hate the Yankees with a passion but that old “Yankees buy every free agent” slogan is old and outdated to 2009.
Tim Anderson is the most overrated “star” in MLB. Seemingly, he’s rarely on the field, a VERY bad sign for a player in his 20’s.
But he’s clutch the times he does play- close to a .400 career hitter in big moments such as the postseason and WBC
A tournament that doesn’t count is a big moment?
Maybe Clint Frazier will help fill that clutch void…..
What is your metric for counting?
Hann wants to get fired… he wants to he Han Solo… May the 4th be with you Hann
He is a bum. Good riddance
Tel him that when you run into him for lunch.
Right on the money, avenger. The problem with the Sox is not so much team payroll as it is how they spend on players. I’ve never seen a team whose organization is so woefully incompetent in evaluating talent.
A big problem of theirs is players not wanting to sign with them. They have made some big swings that have missed. Machado would look great there rn
No. But check back in a month
I hate loving this team.
@The Baseball Fan: The Sox have been my team almost my whole life. I can’t say I love them, but I want my team back. While Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington and Oakland are putting some effort into building competitive teams, Reinsdorf is the only owner who just doesn’t care. They didn’t do well in 2022, so the obvious answer in Reinsdorf’s little mind to improve the team is to cut the budget. He’s got to go!
are you insane? Washington and OAKLAND putting effort into their team!?!? Are you crazy?
Considering the way that Hahn’s FA acquisitions have gone, I’d cut his spending too.
More than Reinsdorf.
Sox have put a ton of effort into winning. They’ve just done a lousy job.
Actually, Washington is making an effort
At getting the #1 draft pick?
Answer To Question; YES, it’s OVA LOL.
Like dropping an egg carton.
It’s all ova.
I would say Yes, but 538 has got them at a 7% chance and it is the AL Central. I’ll give them another month.
Don’t you got a dumpster to dive in?
Terrible organization from the top down.
Only getting 11 games out of Tim Anderson so far really hurts, but if losing one good player turns a wannabe contender into one of the worst baseball teams I’ve ever watched play, then yes the season is already lost.
The Tigers have no offence and can’t win if they give up 4 runs. But at least they play fundamental ball. I watch the WS play, and their lack of effort, and misplays is cringeworthy.
Should send Luis Robert to TX for a massive haul and begin the rebuild.
Robert isn’t bringing back a massive haul this days. He’s actually one of the guys the White Sox should hold onto for now and hope to build the next core around. Anderson and Cease are the big ones to trade now. Along with Lynn and Giolito if they can rebound by the deadline
I’d keep Cease. The problem with trading Cease, TA, etc. is that Hahn and Williams aren’t smart enough to get top prospects in return.
Hey, they got Dylan Cease, but that’s about the only good trade Hahn made.
If it is…..then they may have a legendary fire sale this summer. TA, Lance, Eloy, Yasmani, Elvis, Gio, all not cheap, all have return value in their own right, all could/would be enticing to contenders.
Why would a contender want Yasmani, Elvis or Giolito? Don’t be cruel.
Depth! Good teams need depth.
Think of all the catcher swapping that went down last year. Yasmani is in the last year of his deal and has been an average player (.1 war) through 70 at bats. Still getting on base at .337. He absolutely has a place as a backup on a good team, imo
Elvis has been absolutely awful this year, no doubt, but was extremely productive and has playoff experience, tons of experience battling down the stretch for a playoff spot. If he’s not creeping back up to a league average war within a month or so (he’s at -.6 now), he may be a dfa candidate. If he turns it around and gets back to consistent competence; which I absolutely believe he has the ability to, he could be a nice reserve middle infielder for a good squad.
Gio, what he has going for him is youth, the strikeout rate has maintained, and the possibility that he could get back to that ace level form looms. I think of a team like the mariners, who are in need of another arm, who could afford to take a chance on him as the 4th-5th starter with potential to give more! He especially out of these 3 players I think has legit appeal on the market. I’m not saying he’s gonna get you a top prospect, but he’s about to hit FA this next year, so worst case scenario you rented a dud, and probably did not give up a prospect of GREAT significance.
*Elvis was extremely productive last year
As it turns out, as generous as it was for Andrus to play a position he has never played before, isn’t working. Three years now without a legitimate second baseman. There were plenty available. They weren’t super stars, but at least it’s their natural position.
That’s not average. He’s at 1.4/ 600pas (average is 2.0) and catchers don’t get 600 pas. He’s also not going to keep running a .320 babip.
So what you’re telling me is, that even with a positive war, he is firmly below average.
Got it. Sound.
Let’s nitpick for the sake of being right. Such a silly thing to argue. No body is claiming him to be an all star. But you can’t say he doesn’t belong as a backup on a good team. That’s all I said. Why interject to make such a minute point?
Do you even understand what WAR represents? Being a replacement level player =/= average. Yes, being above replacement can still mean someone is below average.
Do you understand why it’s dumb that you’re arguing whether or not Yasmani Grandal is an average player or not?
Let’s say I’m wrong. How below average is he? By your numbers, not by much. Shall we go over how many negative war catchers played last year?
Jiminy christmas
Why interject to correct you? Because you’re wrong. I’m sorry your feefees got hurt. I don’t understand why you bothered to add in some dumb strawman, it doesn’t make you less wrong in your original post.
No, my feelings aren’t hurt. What I’m saying is; your attempt to refute such a thin inference like “Yasmani Grandal is an average player;” it’s done more to take away from the conversation than actually continuing it. I would categorize myself as annoyed right now. That I have to deal with clout chasing when I’m just trying if to talk legit ball, not win any arguments about whether Yasmani Grandal is an average player.
I just think you’re whack, and it’s annoying. That’s all. Move along
What is dumb is you using a stat you don’t understand then getting butt hurt when you get called out for using it wrong. But please, continue to throw your tantrum about how it’s definitely not you…I’ll continue to laugh at you.
MUUUUUUTE! Fun talk bud. Holy hell
Zero WAR is not MLB average.
It is “replacement” level, which means the guy you could bring up from AAA or get because he was DFAd by another team.
I know what wins above replacement is.
Do you guys not still use war as a talent gauge? Ok. Zero war doesn’t equal league average; but there were just as many negative war players at catcher than there were positive last year. So, for a guy to have positive war, at that position specifically;
There were 55 catchers at 0 war or above last year
There were 53 catchers below zero war
I was never arguing that zero war equals league average; I was simply using Yasmani Grandals war as a statistical gauge to help me make the claim that he’s average.
Yeeeeehaw boys
Let’s go over all the stats in which Yasmani is above the league average this year:
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+ is 115!!!!
You don’t need “WAR” to see that Yasmani Grandal has been DISTINCTLY BELOW AVG for the last few yrs. The eye test(And team record) tells you all that you need to know.
SODO: Grandal is horrible on defense. No playoff team would want him behind the plate. The White Sox during their past years when they were still in contention, played Zavala and McCann more often behind the plate in important games.
He’s not good defensively. But, when you take his offensive contributions into account, I certainly wouldn’t mind him backing up Cal Raleigh, for example. If he’s playing once a week behind the plate I don’t know that it’s gonna be destructive to your team with his subpar d. Plus, he’s a fine DH option any time
So true. Let’s not forget that Grandal was “benched for defense” in the playoffs, 5 yrs ago when he was with the Dodgers.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If you’re willing to give up quality prospects for Grandal and absorb a good portion of his $18M contract tomorrow, I’d bet most GMs would make the trade tomorrow. Hahn might not, but most would.
If you’re looking for the offensive stats from a couple years ago, that isn’t the player you’re going to get. More importantly, he has been on a rapid decline defensively. He actually has difficulty catching the ball, and blocking balls in the dirt.
If you can get the Mariner fan base behind it and pressure the front office to reach out to the Sox, I think a deal could be made by Monday.
Chisox would be happy just to get his salary off the books. Offer them a broken bat.
He is not a ‘fine DH option’.
All of them have some trade value, except for the washed-up Elvis Andrus.
No, he is not.
The whole bat or half now and half to be named later?
A 0.0 WAR is replacement level, meaning any AAA player should be able to replace that level of performance if called up. Players had to be over 2.4 WAR to be an above average player in MLB last season.
9. There were 9 catchers with at least 200 PA that had a negative WAR last season including Grandal.
For Hahn to get rid of Grandal he would have to eat a significant portion of the money owed to him and possibly include a prospect along with him in a trade.
This was exactly the same talk that got Grandal this contract and look.how it has turned out for CHW. He’s meh. Way overpaid.
Great stuff guys.
You know, I really don’t feel that strongly about Yasmani at all.
Other than;
-He gets on base, and puts together good at bats
-He has lots of playoff experience (something good clubs tend to value, especially over the deadline, while in a playoff race)
-He plays a position that is constantly in flux around the league, and in demand.
-At his position, he offers some of the best offense that will (should) be available come deadline.
Now, I don’t have any problem with somebody saying he sucks; but the point I was making about him didn’t really command a rebuttal….all I said was maybe he’d be a potential trade piece. That’s all. So when guy tried to challenge such a small inference, like ok, Yasmani ISNT WORTHY OF A SPOT ON A GOOD TEAM. Ok. My bad. Lol, like that’s such a weaker, less evidence based statement than the one I made. He doesn’t belong on the bench somewhere? Really??? Cmon guys!
In a contract year? Way less likely
Grandall looks like he been training in the off season at the Gary Sanchez academy for catchers. Why would a contending team become that desperate?
Sign ups for the Yasmani Grandal hate club:
http://www.battingprowessdoesntmatterforcatchers.com
http://www.ignorehittingstats.com
What kind of Mariners fan so much as mutters an incantation to bring Yasmani Grandal into the fold, even in jest?
And Hawk would not be happy with the announcers calling him Yaz!
Dogbone—-I know it’s a day later but Grandal proved why he is NOT even a viable major league catcher tonight let alone any of the jibberish SODOMOJO was pushing last night.
Play at the plate—-whiffs on the throw in and turns his back on the play after that…..the merry go round continues to happen.
The problem with the play started when the DH playing left field didn’t know where he was on the field and misplayed the ball off the wall.
Then as you say, Grandal couldn’t secure a perfect relay that hit the webbing of his glove. Then compounded this issue, by apparently posing for a Sports Illustrated photo shoot as the ball trickled away and the lead run trotted to 3rd.
Yeah, this season is lost. Robert doesn’t even know the name of his bench coach? Supposedly had a tight hammy but didn’t go in for treatment. Giggled like a school girl when asked about his manager sitting him when asked by reporters.
Why are you surprised? A lot of people saw this coming. They could use a manager. I remember everyone saying LaRussa was the problem. Well ok. Now it’s Pedro Grifols fault. Go Cubs.
LaRussa was a problem. He sucked. Lots of people thought of a dead cat bounce this season. Also, cool, you really showed us Sox fans by saying go cubs. No matter how good they might be, this year, it still took your team approximately 5 generations and 108 years to win a title. Way to set a record…..
That’s your best comeback?
Ok John.
Well, like John, I despise the cubs. But it’s just a game. The only thing about the cubs is that they’ve got our second baseman!
You can have Madrigal back, any time you want for free.
He’s still better than what we’ve got now.
You would think that Madrigal is good. Guess he passes your eye test, lol.
As opposed to the White Sox who took a brisk 88 years?
Grifol is over-matched. He doesn’t seem to know what to do. I don’t think he knew what he was getting into with this organization. It’s amazing how well players do once they get out of Chicago, like Abreu who is finally seeing what playing on a real team feels like.
I can’t tell if you’re trolling or clueless. Abreu has a wRC+ of 54 and -.5 fwar so far this year.
And a 9.6 bipip, a .21 fwhat? and a telling .77 rebop. Based on those numbers, I’d say he’s having a pretty good season.
You obviously aren’t even following Abreu with the Astros. He hasn’t been good.
Abreu has been flat out awful with the Astros. Nearly 50% below league average.
I’m glad you find your ignorance funny, so do I.
Only Casas with the Red Sox has been worse than Abreu this season.
Yeah, so is my left white sock.
Yes the season is doomed. Bad decision after bad decision.
How can it be?
You and almost all the Chicago posters spent all last year telling me that Larussa was the problem. Larussa’s not managing them, is he?
TLR demoralized them. He didn’t seem to relate to his players. You could see the tension in the dugout. And the media was also afraid of him, lobbing softball questions and hoping he didn’t yell at them.
This is true, TLR has never liked being questioned by the media this goes back to his time in St. Louis too.
Well Larussa was a problem. But he wasn’t the ONLY problem. But he was the biggest problem. The next biggest problem is the whole team is made of glass.
Oh
Just like to state for the record that I was in the minority of those who wanted Ozzie back. Not that all would be perfect but still. Ozzie can be a jackass but I’d bet he’d be having those guys playing better than they are.
I never wanted Tony but tried to be open minded. Same with Pedro but a man who was the Royals bench coach (no disrespect) didn’t fill me with a sense of optimism.
I hope Lucas Giolito is in Baltimore next season. Give this organization a chance to work with him and unlock that real potential.
Could wind up like G Cole when he went to Houston.
or Arrieta when he went to Chicago.
Yup. Cutter made all the difference. Glad there’s a new philosophy in place in Baltimore.
The O’s aren’t going to pay the salary he’ll demand to rework him.
@samuel
At some point the O’s will pay for a free agent. It’s still relative value. Paying $20MM a year for a $30MM arm is value.
BStrowman;
They’re doing well paying $3m for a $7m arm now. And they can develop a few of those arms to be $25m arms.
I don’t believe they’ll go FA. Too expensive. They have so many excess young players I figure they batch up 2 or 3 and get a high-quality starting pitcher with at least 3 years of control left, so he’s making a reasonable salary.
They have a lot of quality young players now that they want to keep, and even under control their payroll is going to go up quite a bit. That’s the way it works.
Furthermore, they’re still working their starting pitcher candidates (currently 8 in all) and I figure at least 3 will be keepers….probably 4. Until they’re sure who’s who they’re not giving innings in 2023 as they need those 8 to get a real shot. Young starting pitchers take time to mature. You don’t give up on a guy too early, you may be dumping a future star….pitching at a reasonable salary.
Maybe. We don’t have too many $25M possibilities in the system. G-Rod Is really it. Think the wallet opens for a p eventually.
The O’s are getting pitchers that were DFA’s, inexpensive FA’s, and through what appear to be minor trades. Then the coaching staff goes to work on them. Small market teams have to grow their own (Cleveland was stumbling, 3 starters had injuries…they called up 2 rookies this week that both won games for them).
Jorge Lopez is having a great start for the Twins, but Yennier Cano is even doing better with the O’s…..as both guys have ERA’s of 0.00. However, the O’s also got 3 other pitchers in that trade that they’re working with in the minors.
MLB success today depends on teams being self-sufficient in developing pitchers at all levels. Even the Yankees learned that.
I don’t disagree with you but Cleveland also invests in their pitchers via draft capital.m Cleveland does especially well with guys taken in rounds 2-5. Better than anyone in baseball. But; they also have some early picks in there.. the O’s haven’t even really invested in that.
Elias doesn’t draft pitchers. You typically don’t pluck top flight pitchers out of someone’s system by surprise. That has to be invested in & I believe it’ll come via FA for one. & I think we’ll see a lot more arms taken moving forward. It’s just that the development of those arms will take years & the rest of the team ought to be ready well before then.
He’s done a great job fixing pitchers. It’s just that top guy is going to cost you an investment one way or the other.
& that’s why I was speculating on a guy like Giolito to Baltimore.
He’s not going to get paid in the crazy money tier. Not much different then when the Phils went out and got Wheeler. It was a fairly big deal but it wasn’t a mega deal. & then they got way more out of him. That’s what I think happens in Baltimore. Hopefully G-Rod becomes a Nola and we grab a Giolito and turn him into a Wheeler.
Pair that with a cheap crop of homegrown position players, homegrown mid-back end rotation guys and a great inexpensive bullpen—then you’ve got yourself a WS contender.
We’ll see. Nearly every team buys something eventually.
A high quality starter with 3 or more years of “cheap” control on the trade market is a unicorn.
“Could wind up like G Cole when he went to Houston.”
Spider Tack is illegal now.
& yet the stros are still pumping out front of the rotation arms
BStrowman – why not aim higher? Cease is under control for 2.5 years. Orioles have the prospects and the need. There is no way the Sox pay him prior to hitting free agency, and no reason for the Sox to hold onto him for the 2.5 years of a 5 year rebuild.
Because the O’s young players are nowhere near their peak.
The O’s WS contention starting in 2024, and should go on for the next 5 years.
By the time their current youngsters are going full throttle, Cease will be going FA to a large market club and the O’s wll have lost young players that could benefit them.
2024 sounds like that’s right around the corner. I’m not an Oriole fan and not the Oriole’s GM, but if I’m in the AL East and the majority of my stars are young controllable position players that are starting to emerge. I make sure I have a top arm, or two. Cease is making $5M this year and two years of arbitration. Trade and sign him for something like 6 years $125M. If everyone on the team hasn’t reached arbitration, $21M a year should not crush payroll.
Young players are just that, not a top MLB starter in his prime. No matter how important you think prospects are, the failure rate is incredibly high. Even fewer become elite.
I don’t predict the O’s paying top dollar for anybody. It’ll be somebody who they believe can take the next step with their coaching.
It has to be the perfect storm. Like Glasnow in TB or Cole in HOU, wheeler in philly. Those are varying degrees of a move but none was acquired @ peak value. Samuel is right that the O’s are a developmental organization. It’s just that we’ll need to get a guy with that ceiling who hasn’t hit it yet elsewhere. I’d bet on that.
Relative value.
BStrowman : Be careful what you wish for. I’ve watched Giolito now for a few years. You cannot count on him, from game to game. He’s a #4, overall.
Somehow people are probably still blaming LaRussa.
This team has no offensive firepower at all. Jake Burger and Luis Robert are basically the offense and the pitching as been terrible. There is no way this team passes the Twins or Guardians in the AL Central.
As for Grifol, it isn’t at least a little telling that the Royals passed on him twice?
Cease has been good in all but 2 starts in a row, both vs. TB — whom almost no one has been able to beat. His first GS of the year was a 10K/0BB performance vs. HOU that ended in a ND for him.
So if you ignore when he’s bad, he’s good?
Put into context the fact that he’s had to face 1 team twice during a historic run to open a season in TB Rays. To think that those 2 games are the norm and not the anomaly is ignoring 2022 when he was a Cy runner-up.
Flamingbag, Cease will be fine. Probably not as good as last year, but still a top pitcher. Cease kinda reminds me of Rich Harden. Flashes brilliance, but generally throws too many pitches to go deep into games, which prevents him from being a TOR arm.
He’s definitely a TORP, but you can’t just ignore bad starts to make a point.
Did he even average 6 innings last year? Should find a new name for the award, as Cy would be embarrassed if he only pitched 6.
Not ignoring starts, but also not hitting the panic button when he has 2 uncharacteristically bad starts vs. the same team in the opening month of the season, when his team is also giving him little run support.
If you are a believer in expected stats, their lineup is looking even worse than it probably is. Burger has been underperforming quite a bit, so he might be poised for a heater. Other than that, TA is about the only hitter worth anything.
What do stats – especially “projected stats” – have to do with a team winning on the field?
It can indicate good and bad luck impacting traditional stats. Ex: Christian Walker was one of the league leaders last year at the ASB in difference between AVG and xAVG. He was hitting like .200 and his xAVG was around .275 IIRC. 2nd half of the season he hit .270.
Look at 2023. deGrom has a 1.91 xERA but a current ERA of 3.04 (if his game tonight hasn’t started yet). His FIP and xFIP back those up (1.44 & 1.82).
It is not a guarantee though. Abraham Toro was in the same boat as Walker last year but I’m pretty sure he remained terrible the full year. Previous season’s AVG is usually more indicative than xAVG though. It’s not a predictive tool, but it *can* be a useful tool if you take into a broader look at a player’s performance.
Fine.
Assume you’re killing it in your rotisserie league.
What does anything you wrote have to do with a team winning or losing games?
Is has exactly what he wrote to do with winning or losing games; xStats are more based on peripherals like EV and Swinging Strike (or Whiff) rates.
If a guy has a low Whiff rate and a high EV but none of the production, chances are he’s squaring up pitches but they’re right at fielders.
It helps to know which players are doing everything right and not being rewarded; by the law of averages, if they keep doing what they’re doing for the most part they can see some improvements in production. (Or you see meaningful changes in process by looking at peripherals).
@highheat
This Samuel guy has been crying in several threads the last few days for no rhyme or reason against completely benign stuff I’ve been saying. Often completely ignoring everything I’ve said and going on a straw man argument for something I never argued in the first place. Just gonna ignore or mute him cause it’s exhausting seeing him cry nonstop
mostlytoasty;
This Samuel guy played ball, has been watching MLB for over 65 years, and has been on here for over 5. He watches at least parts of 500 games a year on MLB.TV – often 2-3 games at a time.
Just mute me because I don’t think you kids even know what a cut-off man is, and how allowing a runner to take an extra base changes the momentum which in turn changes a teams strategy and the direction of the game.
Rest assure that many teams internal statistics that they keep reflects things you have no clue about.
Stick to rotisserie league and whiffle ball.
“Stats you have no clue about”
Ok well I hope you’re writing angry letters to all those orgs complaining about their “rotisserie” stats
mostlytoasty;
Kid, I don’t write any angry letter to anyone. You’re totally lost.
Mute.
@mostlytoasty, high heat: You guys are crazy. Do you even watch games or are you totally involved in unnecessary stats to enjoy it?
@Samuel_ If there isn’t a stat for it, mostlytoasty wouldn’t know what a cut-off man or a runner taking an extra base is.
@avenger65
You do realize that it’s possible to watch games and go over stats? It’s actually quite enjoyable (and easy) if you understand what you’re looking for.
I enjoy watching the game, but I also like having an idea of what to expect so I can see where my expectations match and differ from reality.
You don’t find it fun to challenge your own understanding? I have to say that I feel sorry for you; that’s a sad way to walk through life.
Enjoy your commercial breaks and melting down when a RP has one “poor” outing; I’ll keep muting them and looking over stats while I’m waiting for the next pitch.
We’re so impressed Samuel that you “played ball” and watch 500 games a year and have 65 years of experience watching games. And that you can watch 2-3 games simultaneously! Oh yeah, and you’ve been on here for FIVE years. Wow. Despite all that, this game has clearly passed you by.
@mostlytoasty
No need to get riled up; we’re dealing with an armchair quarterback. The difference here is that Samuel thinks his 65 years of observing something generally means that he is an authority on the specifics (watching 2-3 games at a time is no way watch for specific details).
His 65 years of watching is more significant than the entirety of the MLB historical sample size that goes into all of those numbers (and “sorting tables” and “expected outcomes on batted ball types/distribution”, among other terms, might be foreign concepts entirely).
If you find joy in using stats to enhance your experience, keep doing it; if you find joy in not using stats, keep doing it. But a fan (even an old one) is not an authority, and saying stats that aren’t from MLB front office are a waste of time/effort is an appeal to authority.
I personally enjoy the mechanical and developmental aspect of the sport, but situation specific strategies are just as intriguing. We all get something different out of the game.
Keep thinking and keep thinking for yourself
Samuel is the God of baseball fans
The common denominator over the last 20 some years has been Kenny Williams. He hired Hahn, and approves all moves.. If Hahn goes and NOT KW, that would be a complete JOKE!
Maybe, just maybe Rick wants to leave but doesn’t have the heart to tell Jerry. So he’s trying to force his hand.
UPDATE: Tim Anderson no longer claims to be the modern day Jackie Robinson, now claims to be the modern day Michael X.
We all know how that worked out.
Stick with one they venerated- not ventilated stupid.
White Sox have the core players, but what separates them from everyone else at the top is the Sox have absolutely no depth. Their division rivals Twins and Guardians have players hurt and they can call up adequate replacements, someone on the Sox gets hurt and they have to call up someone who has no reason to be in the majors at that time.
Even saying that “White Sox have the core players” is a bit of a stretch. It’s all based on potential and how good they theoretically *should* be. The front office’s plan going into the season was “no one get hurt and everyone have a career year.” If you’re banking on that, you’re doomed to fail from the start.
The White Sox are the perfect example of the risk involved with signing your young talent to extensions early. The opposite end of the spectrum from the Braves.
When keepin it real goes wrong…
The White Sox “rebuild” excited posters here as well as the national sports media. I thought it was one of the dumbest I’ve ever seen – maxing out your payroll signing high-priced veterans and giving young guys long extensions because they had a good year.
True to form, posters here are demanding the Orioles do the same. No way. Their FO is bright,
Today’s dumb hot take…. BTW. the Braves are on line 1, Cleveland is on line 2.
John Kappel;
Not dumb at all John,…..
In fact, if you’re comparing the White Sox rebuild to that of the Braves or Guardians I think your take is the dumb one.
The restraint the Orioles are showing is totally in line with what the Braves and Guardians did….i.e. develop your own and then trade or sign FA’s when you find you have a few weaknesses that can’t be filled internally.
Except the Braves paid way under market value for all those extensions like the White Sox did, they gave it multiple extensions to players with less than 2 years of service time, see Acuna, Albies, Strider, Harris, and did not sign almost any free agents. The White Sox signed only 4 FAs long term, and 2 of the 4 they got their money out of while 1 was this off season. Only Graveman would be considered a bad signing thus far. Even Kuechel was good to decent for 2 of his 3 years.
They only play as one and not as a team. Not playing for the love of the game, more worried about if the yellow or red shoes look good with the uniform. Wear the same uniform as everyone else and play the game like a hockey player and suck up some of these pansie injuries
I wonder if there’s also some toxic personalities in the club house bringing on bad vibes.
Hahn & Williams started this nosedive after the 21′ season when they won the AL Central and James McCann was both the unofficial team captain and top player.
With a minimum contract he was an asset every GM would love to have.
But Sox management thought the better idea was to sign Y. Grandal to a 4/$73m and make the ultra valuable starting catcher McCann a back up.
The mismanagement of who they sign and where the priorities should be has been an ongoing conundrum.
Lastly, pinning the team’s success on many players who constantly miss games or go in the IL (Moncada/Robert/Jimenez) has blown up in their face. All 3 of these players also play with little or no hustle/enthusiasm. Almost as if signing their lucrative international free agent contracts was their world series rings equivalent. Trades need to happen prior to the ASB if for no other reason than to fire shots across the bow of satisfied millionaires. Top of the list, Moncada, Grandal. If Robert doesn’t play up his talent after that, he’d be next while his value/speculation is high.
Attitudes need to be changed because the manager shuffle proved it wasn’t the issue.
Its the players and certain types of players who are not winners at all costs.
The Sox only played good baseball in the Kenny Williams / Rick Hahn era when Ozzie was managing, And Oz had to fight them to bring in players that wanted to win and not lumber around padding their stats so they could get a higher contract.
All their teams are full of guys that can’t play D, run the bases correctly, do any situational hitting at all. They like to run up their stats beating up on position players pitching in crunch time, so they can jump up and down like 7 year-olds while all their jewelry is jiggling. Larussa in the HOF as a manger. The players (and fans) didn’t like him. He was a meanie. He wanted them to grow up and be professional.
And what other teams would sign Clevinger to that contract being in the situation he was in at the time? And 5 years for Beni?
Jerry doesn’t have the most shares in the franchise. He has the votes to be the managing partner. I’d suspect either the other partners will vote him out shortly, or buy him out.
Connie Mack and John McGraw are also HOF managers, but I don’t want them managing the Sox currently either. You can try to defend DUI Tony all you want, but no other manager in the last 25 years has walked someone on a 1-2 or 0-2 count.
John Kappel;
How many week have you been following MLB?
Newsflash…….
No one can manage the White Sox with any success due to that FO and the owner’s priority of being a social justice warrior as opposed to building a professional baseball team of players that put the team first.
Situational hitting is just so important. Along with hitting the cut-off man and doing all the little things that guys like Samuel and avenger love so much.
@Hammerin’ Hank
I’m not going to bash too hard on those guys; they’re behind the times as far as numbers go, but those are important things.
In a “probability” based game like baseball (due to small deviations in contact point producing large differences in results), you’re always subject to positive/negative outcomes.
Not everybody has the physical tools to optimize their approach for positive outcomes (like power hitters being able to “mishit” balls and send them out), but everybody has some ability to optimize the results on their “negative” outcomes through fundamentally sound play.
This is even more important with the pitch timer and pickoff limits; a HR clears the bases and gives the pitcher the opportunity to work from the wind-up, but stringing singles together forces them to continue out of the stretch and gives baserunners the opportunity to mess with pitchers’ rhythm or force fielders to reposition.
That’s where much of the DBacks offensive success has come from this year; they have a lot of big innings, but most of those big innings are not because of HRs (or BBs really). It’s generally singles, aggressive baserunning, and productive outs.
Due to the investigation being done on the down low by MLB, no team was aware of the situation Clevinger was in at the time, and MLB found no merit to the accusations, which is why they don’t announce publicly. Innocent until proven guilty. As to the owner being a social justice warrior, explain how the hiring of a DUI mamager fits with that narrative. The only thing I see the owner being guilty of is too much loyalty to incompetent employees, and requiring they stick to a budget.
highheat;
Please don’t get so righteous.
My background in in computer systems and data. I’m fully aware of the use of numbers.
I’m also aware of the fact that MLB teams have multiple people on staff – as well as subscribing to services – that are generating stats for them that the public knows nothing about.
Give you a common example…..
You kids get all bent out of shape when individual umpires miss calls and put a high priority on the silly pitch framing state (i.e. the catcher getting a strike call on a ball Now…..
Depending on where an umpire sets up, he’ll see the strike zone differently as he’s looking over one of the catchers shoulders. Everyone know that umps have different strike zones – you learn that playing in junior high school. MLB teams now have stats on each days home plate umpire’s strike zone, and make their hitters aware of it in pre-game meetings.
You consider me calling you behind on the times but giving you credit where due being “righteous”? I also referred to you as an “armchair quarterback” that’s “appealing to authority” earlier; none of these are mutually exclusive statements.
I wasn’t defending you, I was defending your actual contributions to the conversation; there weren’t many, but the ones that were there don’t deserve to be drowned out simply due to you being crotchety and fancying yourself an authority because you’ve spent 65 years distracting yourself (that’s all watching three games at the same time is)
I’m not bent out of shape over missed balls/strikes; I’m quite familiar with Umpires’ differing zones “depending on where an Umpire sets up”, pitchers/hitters have to take what they’re given and work around it
Doesn’t change the fact that if they’re calling a zone inconsistent with what is described in the rule book, that they’re doing a poor job (due to the Umps union the quality of their work is irrelevant once they reach tenure, so there’s no point complaining; Angel Hernandez says hello).
It’s not only MLB teams that can look up Umpire data; you or I can look up Umpire Scorecards for every game or sort an individual Umpires game history and look over it. Get with the times, Samuel; your “common example” just appealed to an authority with no mention of the publicly available data in that same area.
Awareness of the use of numbers and awareness of HOW to use those same numbers are two very different things; of course teams have proprietary systems, that doesn’t mean that publicly available data is useless (and most of the proprietary systems are focused on a blend of peripherals and game production; exactly what most of the public data is data is doing, the only difference being the weighting of the inputs and how specific teams can get with their peripherals).
Your background in computers and data is irrelevant unless you’re actually trying to implement that knowledge (and if you’re not even aware of Umpire scorecards, you’re obviously not trying very hard).
Keep watching however you want to watch, but you’re nowhere near as knowledgeable as you see yourself.
A social justice warrior? What drugs are you on? I think you’ve been staring at your computer screen at work too long. Like I literally have no clue what you are even remotely talking about..
I knew Grandal was a terrible signing from the beginning. I last saw him play for the Brewers where he had 3 passed balls in one game. His first year with the Sox, Grandal didn’t even catch as many games as McCann. McCann was also the one who caught Giolito’s no-hitter. But the Sox let McCann go and, as it sometimes happens, a change of scenery had a bad effect on him.
Really poorly written? Great job!
Is their season over? Probably. They’d have to play well above even rosy expectations from here on out to just get back to even. Bring on the rebuild. Start with a new owner.
Somebody call a cop.
RESIGN HAHN!
FIRE KENNY WILLIAMS!!
SELL THE TEAM REINSDORF!!!
Let’s suppose you become the owner, president of baseball operations, and GM. Let’s suppose you inherit the existing roster and have a budget of 175-200 mm for the 2024 season. Tell me, all-wise Palehose72, tell me your first 5 player moves—and don’t make it sound as if a trade you have in mind would be willingly accepted by the other team.
It’s just a horrible franchise. And, it will be at least until there is new ownership. Hopefully, new ownership will be completely different t after Reinsdorf is gone. If it goes to his family then it will continue to be crap for many years.
Aren’t these contracts such as gravemen covered by insurance when they are injured? I never hear much about that so I assume stipulations limit coverage to players hurt for a certain amount of time? Anyone know anything about this?
Look up Prince Fielder’s contract insurance, there were many articles that covered it. I think they need to be basically unable to play (not just on the IL) and even then it still doesn’t cover 100% of it.
It’s hard to find insurance for professional athletes. Most insurance companies will not underwrite polices as the risks are so high (just look at this site that has stories on multiple injuries listed every day of the season). The fact is that both the premiums and deductibles are so high that most franchises don’t bother with policies. (Unlike the government, private insurance companies are not in business to lose money).
A few years ago one of the owners explained why so few teams take out any policies, and there have been licensed insurance agents that posted breakdowns on here. What they said and wrote is basically what I summarized in the preceding paragraph.
They need to miss the entire season in order for the team to collect insurance money to cover their salaries. Even then the teams get about 80%.
Plus, premiums are extremely expensive. Simple rule to live by: if you feel the need to get insurance, don’t sign the player to that long term deal.
The premiums are between 5% -10% of the amount of player salary they are covering if I remember the articles about the insurance the WBC teams had to purchase correctly.
Every team gets insurance on top paid players. All of them for whom it is available.
Baseball can be a funny sport at times. No doubt they look bad both on paper and on the field, but let’s wait another month then it’s really time for the front office to start the fire sale.
“Is the White Sox Season Lost?”
Then the VERY NEXT story is that the White Sox sign Clint Frazier and Bryan Shaw.
I don’t think lost is a strong enough word for this team.
That’s hilarious…
Jerry needs to realize that they aren’t going to even make an ALCS before he dies, and that the prudent move is to sell the team. He should be able to clear $2B for the ownership group even with this motley crew of players.
Probably couldn’t play worse if they signed Motley Crue and for a fraction of the cost.
The sox are straight bootyjuice
No. But check back in a week
I’m kind of conflicted. The White Sox as a team I wish this best for them. At the same time it’s been good not to hear from their unbearable fans.
Playoffs? Playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!
I predicted this would happen. Adam freaking Benintendi is the highest paid player in team history. Let that sink in.
Jerry Reinsdorf has owned the team since 1981. Nothing left to say.
This contending window is lost for CHW. Built on a bunch of injury-prone players and underachievers.
They never were a contending team to begin with. Had they added an elite free agent bat and arm like they were supposed to, the rebuild would have been complete. Anyone who’s followed this team for a reasonable length of time knew odds of Jerry allowing any significant signing was zero percent. His frugality is legendary.
They were 7th in payroll in 2022 and 12th this year. Their problem isn’t that they didn’t spend, it’s that they spent poorly.
Hahn, and Williams just don’t know how to work within a budget. They are the ones that have to make room in that budget for signing those top players, and get the minors to produce needed depth on the cheap. Over paying defensive specialists for the bench and putting too much cash into the bullpen, overpaying a C because he’s good at “framing”, because its the new shiny stat, when you already had a C. These are all signs of mismanagement.
Yes… Add to that poor roster construction. Why have 4 DH/1st basemen? Then add poor drafts. Add in poor player dev and that is the recipe for a teardown/rebuild that gets 2 postseason game wins before the next teardown/rebuild.
And they doubled down on the early extensions to Robert, Eloy, and Moncada. I’m not saying you should not extend a young ballplayer (that’s one reason they were able to get most of their current core players) but those salaries are now eight figures and it ruined much of the payroll flexibility needed to make adjustments during their window.
The ChiSox front office did a good job. It’s the players, once again, who are underperforming.
Do the cardinals next. Shouldn’t be too difficult with the answer being a resounding yes.
Season is far from lost. Teams get hot and this team is loaded with talent. Stay the course.
If however they do tank like this for the season. You can mark up Robert and Eloy as 2 most over hyped of the generation
Did you read the article? Season is 99%, mathematically speaking, lost
Not sure what caused this tumble; however, it is clear there were no contingency plans. Stuck in no-man’s land. Kind of desperate when Colas and Benintendi are big adds in the off-season after losing Abreu. Maybe its time to start moving veterans for farm pieces.
Yeah total fire sale to be good in ‘25 otherwise the next few years will be more of the same.
“Will Reinsdorf push payroll to previously unseen levels…”
No.
While it’s nice to hear that Liam Hendicks is cancer-free, the cancer known as Tim Anderson still persists.
The White Sox are terrible, haven’t had a winning season in twelve years, can’t pitch, score runs….five wins in 27 starts for the starters, a 2-9 bull pen record, 6.0 runs allowed per game… Their three through five starterz have won a total of two games in 15 starts, two of them have a 7+ERA while all three are over 4.80.
Their pitchers are volatile, nasty flame throwers who strike out 259 hitters, but also walk 116 of them
“Put another way, they’d need to play at the rough equivalent of an 88-win pace (over a 162-game season) just to get to .500 and at the equivalent of a 99-win pace to reach 90 wins.”
This is an excellent illustration of how the adage “it’s early” holds no merit. The games right now count just as much as the games down the stretch which some people think of as double bonus games.
The White Sox should not even waste the fans’ time with a rebuild until Jerry Reinsdorf sells this pathetic excuse of a large market team AND Rick Hahn AND Kenny Williams get fired!
Sadly, if this happens it will probably take another 5-6 years at least if a new owner is involved, but I would have more faith that owner would want to put a winning type org in the office and club onto the field.
Lots of opinions about whose fault it is. No one questions the mental faculties of old Jerry Reinsdorf, age 87.
Young enough to be a two term president.
Luis Robert when interviewed last night after being benched for not running hard, could not remember Charlie Montoyo’s name. This is pathetic. How did the White Sox swing and miss on Robert, Jimenez, and Clevinger? Someone needs to lose their job.
Everyone should check back with the White Sox in a month or two to see if this season is lost where they should start trading away players. A division or a World Series is not won in the first month of the season. Baseball is somewhat a week by week game where teams can go a hot streak for a week or two or three then go on a little slump for a week or two. Unfortunately this injury bug the White Sox have been dealing with to the awful pitching put the White Sox in a little hole but its not hard to climb out of it in the next few months. Anderson and Moncada will come back from their injuries to getting Crochet and Hendricks back in the next month or so can bolster the White Sox’s bullpen. Lets just see where the White Sox are at around the All Star break to the trade deadline before saying this season is over.
Sure, it’s possible.
1) the Sox need to go 78-55 just to get to 86 wins.
2) Balanced schedule means they play 24 fewer games against the AL Central.
3) they don’t have a 2nd or a RF. Besides Colas’ sterling .211/.265/.276 slash line, he’s already posted a -4 defensive runs saved. This is likely why they signed Frazier and Piscotty.
4) you need at least 8 quality bullpen arms to make a 78-55 run. Adding 2 to Santos, leaves you AT LEAST, 5 short.
5) This is the disqualifier… They have to stay healthy for the remaining 133 games.
Why people find it so hard to accept is almost impossible at this point. They have to play like the best team in baseball for 5 months. They are not even in that conversation and never will be this season. They are a .500 team at best.
The Braves were over nine games out of their division in the second week of June in the 2021 season. People thought the Braves were done that season. Guess what, the Braves won the World Series in 2021.
The 2021 Braves compared to this ’23 Sox team? Man, you must be getting good stuff from the dispensary.
Go to vegas and place your bets then.
Wait, weren’t you one of the posters who said something this last season too?
That’s not how you use “meanwhile.” It has to come at the start of the sentence, not in the middle.