The Cardinals are planning to open the season with Tyler O’Neill in center field, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He’s expected to be flanked by Lars Nootbaar and rookie Jordan Walker in the corners, with Dylan Carlson pushed into a fourth outfield role out of the gate.
O’Neill has primarily played left field over the course of his career. He’s logged over 2500 MLB innings in the corners while playing just 210 2/3 frames over 26 starts up the middle. In spite of that lack of experience, O’Neill entered camp with his sight set on the outfield’s most demanding position. While he didn’t play much in Spring Training — he logged just 41 defensive innings thanks in large part to his commitment to Canada in the World Baseball Classic — the Cardinals are confident he’ll be able to assume a larger role.
It’s a bet on O’Neill’s physical tools. He’s an excellent runner with an above-average throwing arm. O’Neill has typically fared very well as a left fielder in the eyes of public metrics, securing consecutive Gold Glove awards there in 2020-21. It’s not out of the question he carries much or all of that production a notch up the defensive spectrum. O’Neill could well have gotten more reps there in prior years had the Cards not rostered a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder in Harrison Bader for much of that time.
Carlson was the primary center fielder during last year’s second half. The 24-year-old slid over from right field once Bader landed on the injured list last June; he held that role following Bader’s trade to the Yankees. Carlson played 530 innings at the position, rating as an above-average if not quite elite defender in the eyes of both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. He paired that solid defense with a .236/.316/.380 line over 488 plate appearances, exactly league average offense as measured by wRC+.
The switch-hitting Carlson was a top prospect a few years ago. He’s been a solid player since debuting in 2020 but not made quite the impact evaluators may have anticipated, particularly from a power perspective. The transition to fourth outfield work has to register as a disappointment but certainly doesn’t preclude Carlson from playing his way back into a larger role.
It’d require good fortune for all three starting outfielders to make it through the entire season without any injuries. There’s also at least some amount of uncertainty regarding each of the players now ahead of him on the depth chart. Walker is seen as a potentially elite talent but has yet to take a regular season at-bat above Double-A. O’Neill is assuming the largest defensive responsibility of his career. Nootbaar set a career mark with 347 plate appearances last season. Nolan Gorman, who appears the early favorite for designated hitter work, has 89 games of MLB experience. There’ll be some amount of variability throughout the season depending on players’ health and performance that should afford Carlson another everyday opportunity at some point. Headed into the season, though, it appears Nootbaar, O’Neill and Walker represents the starting outfield.
Here. Come. The Cardinals.
Best offense in NL
And a super creaky pitching staff. Will be interesting to watch. Need a lot luck w pitching health.
All teams need luck
Best offense in NL Central not NL.
Better offense than the Padres?? I dunno. If Tatis, Soto, Machado, and Boegarts are all healthy and clicking I believe they beat out Goldschmidt, Arenado, O’Neill, & Nootbaar?? As with anything in life, health will determine the outcome. Should be serious fun to watch it play out.
Your leaving out more than a few people. Edmans, Contreras, Walker, just to name a few.
Ever heard of the Braves?
The Phillies, Braves and Padres still play in the NL don’t they?
A 19 year old rookie just pushed Dylan Carlson a 23 year old 3rd year player to a 4th outfielder role? Damn that guy must be good
*24 year old….
Here come the Cardinals indeed…
A far cry from Mike Shannon, Curt Flood, and Lou Brock.
Well you can’t have three legendary outfielders all the time? Especially not this day in the scouting age… it’s why the Yankees have managed to only buy one world series title since 9/11/2001….
Why would you use that specific date? They “bought” one title since October 26, 2000. Don’t get the 9/11 reference at all, unless it’s some kind of immature troll job.
They were in 6 of the 8 WS from ’96 to ’03, had a great nucleus, and added a piece as needed. I hate the Yankees for a lot of reasons, none of which being they were in a lot of WS games.
Shannon was average at best on some great teams. 97 WRC+ for his career. Flood was 102 and Brock had a 109. Goldy and Arenado blow all 3 out of the water offensively.
Woah
Nootbaar top 5 finish for MVP this year you heard it here first. 30 plus home runs, .380 OBP and great defense and base running.
@Little Stevie Janowsky
He’s looking locked in at the plate. I think the WBC helped get the competitive juices flowing for him. Let’s hope this is his breakout year.
Crazy how scouts missed on him, but maybe not that crazy considering these are the same people that thought Carlson and his slap stick bat was a top prospect in baseball.
I love Noot, but why all the love for a career .228 hitter??
Nope one year wonder
@Fraham_
Well, he’s doing better than you.
Nope. Every advanced stat will tell you Nootbaar is a stud. Which losing team are you a fan of? So many bitter cardinal haters lol
So his career .228 hitter says he’s an MVP candidate??
One hit wonders play music… not baseball, and nootbaat isn’t a one trick pony either…idk much about advances metrics, but everything I’ve been reading said he lit the spectrum up all red for the last two months of 2022? What is he just gonna forget what he figured out? Lol and Albert pujols forgot how to hit after his age 32 season? Wasn’t as good as his first 11 years, but he certainly didn’t forget how to hit
@Little Stevie J: I protected or drafted Nootbaar in three fantasy leagues before you even wrote that! Only paid $9 for him in a Rotisserie auction Sunday.
Nootbaar had a nice 2022, but people need to chill a bit on this guy. He’s a good player. Maybe he becomes more than that. Maybe.
@DatkSide830 I don’t get the obsession over him. I wouldn’t even want him starting on my team. Nootbar is at best an average player. I’d like to see him make contact over walking. Most of these low average decently high Obp guys stagnate the offense. Walks don’t bring in runs, hits do. I’d rather have a guy that bats .300 with a .305 obp over the guy whod batting .230 with a .310 obp
Tell me you don’t understand advanced metrics without saying you don’t understand advanced metrics.
I don’t know what he’s going to end up being, but his ceiling is quite a bit higher than an “average player at best”. You can’t fake hard hit data, which almost always translates to success. Say he will bust, fine. But saying his ceiling is an avg player is based on feelings and ignores his performance.
@stan lee the manly I don’t think O’neil Cruz is that good either. Low baseball IQ, future 3rd basemen/DH in my opinion. He hits the ball hard but it looks like hes an all or nothing hitter
@LFG, with Arrenado and Goldy in lineup his OBP is just fine. All he needs to do is get on base.
It’s OK to just say you don’t know squat about Lars, because you don’t. He’s like 90th percentile in EV. Batting average is a stat for dinosaurs. He had like a .250 BABIP and still put up a well above average batting line.
As a Canadian, I would love nothing more than see O’Neil play for the Jays before his prime is done.
Any fair fantasy trades out there that see him becoming a Jay
I’d give up Springer plus in a heartbeat for him
Treat him good Cardinals fans. Maybe got another Votto lifer over there like in Cincy
What pitching does Toronto offer? A deal could be made.
Barriera is available if you want a potential stud LH starter 2 or 3 years away.
But I think that’s more than O’Neils worth because OF vs SP blah blah.
That’s why I’m not a GM lol
Oniel has only one one season of arbitration control remaining… only way I see the blue jays trading for the Scott boras client (which almost always test free agency) would be by trading someone with equal control that would interst the caridnals? That way they don’t get burnt when he tries free agency especially if he has another year like 2021… blue jays and cardinals have been frequent trade partners in the past, but I just don’t see Toronto having the parts they’d be willing to spare for half a season of O’Neill?
Oh. I didn’t realize O’Neil was a FA at seasons end. I actually thought he was about 2 years younger than he is
Well. That changes things, I know he’s a BC boy. But unless he cheered for the M’s growing up, I wonder if he’d take a “hometown” discount to be Torontos LF next year when we move Varsho to center and shoot Kiermier into space
Let’s hope not! Hometown discounts are good for the owners and terrible for the players
O’Neill has two years left…this year and next year
How is it terrible if it allows the player to play where they want to? Its not like the discount leaves them in poverty.
Player v Owner BS. If both parties are happy, both parties are happy.
Cards looking good this year. Hang up another NL Central pennant.
Which can be meaningless with so many teams in the postseason. If
I think Carlson will be playing quite a bit this year on the grass. Everyone will take a turn as the designated hitter. Walker made the team but no one will be upset if we learn that he will need to play some AAA game to further his development. As much as I like Tyler I think he will find that added real estate every game tough on his physic. Looking forward to the competition.
That sound you hear is O’Neill’s hamstring snapping trying to cutoff a ball in the gap.
O’Neil is one giant muscle shaped like a human, I don’t think he has bones or hamstrings.
He just kept pulling that one giant muscle continually last year lol
He wears tight uniform cause had the muscleman thinking. Tight uniform shows off my muscles
Just please, someone, get him some bigger pants.
He has the mindset like all other musclemen. Tight clothes show off all my muscles. Ever notice how when he gets a hit he pushes back his shoulders and struts around? When he pops up he walks back like a whipped puppy. Funny
He is like all musclemen. Wears tight clothes cause they show off my muscles.
I’m definitely one to say I told you so. Been saying he is the centerfielder for 6 months now and Carlson isn’t long for the team. Every time i suggest the trade Carlson you self proclaimed Cardinal experts would respond with “who will play centerfield?”. The problem is now Carlson won’t net much of a trade return. The Cardinals are going to try and throw 9 at 3 outfield spots and hope to find 3 everyday starters or at least ride the hot bat.
We don’t know what Walker will be, floor is hopefully at least Heyward. Carlson, Nootbar, Edmond, and Donovan are all the same interchangeable player we’ve seen for the last 20 years in Saint Louis (Piscotty, Rasmus, Jay, Duncan, Robinson, Ludwick, Bader, Taguchi, etc..). Then Yepez, Burleson, Gomez, all the same guy.
They need pitching in the worst way and the only one with any perceived value right now is Nootbar. He needs to be traded while their is still hype around him and his metrics are still higher than his actual ability. He will crash to the level of player he really is this year and Mozalak will make the same mistake with him as he did with Carlson.. Keep him long enough to show everyone the real player and eliminate all trade value.
Ironically Carlson had the best spring of the five outfielders. So much for that competition Marmol spoke of so often.
Is O’Neill being showcased to be moved for pitching? That’s what this feels like to me.
Yep. That’s what I’ve thought all along. I’d like to see O’Neill shipped to Texas for one of those minor league pitchers.
No. The Cardinals legitimately think they are a WS contender. You don’t name O’Niel your CF to show case him. They do it to get ahead of releasing the opening day lineup without Carlson in it. Rest assured, the cardinals are rubbing the numbers off the phone trying to shop Carlson. I think DC will be in Anaheim or San Fransisco by June.
The Cardinals aren’t shopping anyone right now. If anything they are simply inquiring about available quality pitching. Once they find a target, they will start talking a trade. The players sent back will depend as much on the trade partner as the Cardinals desires. Starters aren’t the only thing needed. Another quality left handed relief pitcher would be very nice. I cringe everytime Packy Naughton takes the mound.
I don’t think you put a big bulky guy who is already injury prone in the second most physically demanding position on the field if you plan to keep him on your team. At some point in his early thirties, the back issues will begin to be frequent. O’Neill is gone after 2024 anyway. They have too much depth at the postion to sign him long term. They will want to trade him first simply because of service time. Carlson is cost controlled through 2026.
Of course, Marmol’s most-used lineup last season only played together three times. They’re going to rotate those top-four outfielders quite a bit.
Unfortunately O’Neal looked very uncomfortable and played the outfield as though he was afraid he was going to make a mistake.