2:13pm: The first opinion Rodgers received on his shoulder recommended surgery that would likely end his season, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s seeking a second opinion. If Rodgers is lost for the season, Heyman adds, the team would likely replace him internally rather than pursue a free agent such as Jose Iglesias, who spent the 2022 season with the Rox.
10:55am: Rockies fans received a pair of disappointing health updates today, as both second baseman Brendan Rodgers and reliever Lucas Gilbreath could require season-ending surgery. Rodgers, who dislocated his shoulder, earlier this week, has sustained “more damage than expected” to the shoulder capsule, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Harding notes that while no decision has been made yet, the possible surgery could threaten Rodgers’s 2023 season. As for Gilbreath, Harding reports that the lefty has undergone an MRI and describes Tommy John surgery as “likely”, though Gilbreath noted to Harding that he and the organization are still “looking into different options.”
Rodgers, 26, is coming off a breakout season of sorts where despite his .266/.325/.408 slash line leading to a below-average 92 wRC+, his work with the glove earned him a Gold Glove and contributed to a bWAR of 4.3. Rodgers was set to be the everyday second baseman in Colorado this season, and seemed likely to be one of the most valuable players on the club this season, as he was in 2021 when the aforementioned 4.3 bWAR figure led the team, with Ryan McMahon’s 3.1 figure coming in second among position players.
Gilbreath, meanwhile, was set to enter his age-27 season as one of the most reliable relievers in the Rockies bullpen. Gilbreath pitched very well over the past two seasons for a hurler who calls Coors Field his home ballpark, posting a 3.78 ERA (126 ERA+) and 3.92 FIP over the past two seasons, though those results come with a significant platoon split, as he dominated southpaws while struggling against righties. Should he undergo Tommy John surgery as expected, Gilbreath will surely miss not only all of the 2023 season, but the beginning of the 2024 season as well.
Should the club lose both players for the 2023 season, Colorado’s already slim hopes of contention (ZiPS gives the club playoff odds of just 0.1% entering the 2023 season, the lowest of all 30 clubs) will become even murkier. Assuming losing Gilbreath doesn’t spur the Rockies, who signed just two free agents to major league deals for a combined $8.5MM guarantee this offseason, to spend on a replacement lefty such as Zack Britton, Will Smith, or Brad Hand, the club will instead go into the season with Brent Suter as the bullpen’s primary left-handed option, and a depth option such as Gavin Hollowell or Phillips Valdez will take Gilbreath’s spot in the bullpen.
In looking to replace Rodgers, the first decision Rockies brass must make is whether or not to move Ryan McMahon, a top-tier defender at third base who also has experience at second, over to the keystone. If they do so, either Nolan Jones or Kris Bryant has ample experience at third base and could slot into the lineup at the hot corner with relative ease, though neither player brings anything close to McMahon’s defensive abilities at the position. Should the club feel McMahon’s defensive abilities at third are too valuable to lose, the options at second base are far less inspiring, with Alan Trejo representing the most likely option on the 40-man roster, while other possible options include non-roster invitees Harold Castro and Cole Tucker.
Rodgers was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, and will make $2.7MM in 2023. Rodgers will be arb eligible again for two more seasons before he’s expected to hit free agency following the 2025 season. Gilbreath, but as a likely Super Two candidate, is expected to reach arbitration this coming offseason, and is controllable through the end of the 2027 season. If Gilbreath is indeed out for the season, whatever raise he would receive in arbitration this offseason if he does pass the Super Two threshold would be negligible, limiting the risk of a non-tender this offseason.
LordD99
Hopefully Rodgers can avoid extensive shoulder surgery. It’s a toss up if he’ll return at the same level.
Yankee Clipper
I agree, man. Shoulder surgeries are the worst!
BTW, did you see the lineup against the Nats? Kay opined multiple times that’s going to the the Opening Day lineup (only with Trevino), and I agree.
IKF, Hicks, Donaldson…………
BStrowman
Particularly if it’s his right shoulder. His throwing arm wasn’t the best already.
Yankee Clipper
Yeah, true. We don’t often see people return to form after shoulder surgeries. That’s how my baseball ended.
hiflew
Well that sucks.
AHH-Rox
Would be brutal to lose 2 players who looked like they were turning into solid players last year.
Maybe a reunion with Jose Iglesias to fill their lack of infield depth? Or just plug in one of the 4A players they already signed and start figuring out who they can trade players like Cron to once they are out of contention.
Devlsh
“…once they are out of contention.”
3….2….1….Go!
AHH-Rox
I guess a more complete phrasing would be “once they drop far enough below .500 that all fans and even Dick Monfort recognize that they have no chance.”
So maybe early June.
Reynaldo
Dick Monfort: “We’re still a lot like the Padres. I think we can still be a .500 team”
Superstar Prospect Wander Javier
Well in his defense…Rodgers averaged less than 1 WAR over his first 4 seasons, so this didn’t hurt them that much. If they were .500 before they can be .500 now.
ohyeadam
I’m required to upvote everything you say based on the profile alone
BStrowman
1.7fWAR and 4.3 bWAR last year.
Have to imagine that’s the largest gap between the 2 in all of baseball. BWAR is junk to me but he was a GG 2B who hit only slightly below average. More valuable than 1.7 but probably not worth 4+ wins.
He’s a great case for WAR bashers for sure.
hiflew
Rodgers entire season was just weird. In April, he did nothing. He ended the first month of the year hitting below .100. And this was with starting almost every day. Then from May-early August, he hit like an All Star. Then from mid-August – end of season he hit another major slump. Not quite as bad as April, but not much better. There was no in between for him. Strangest season I have ever watched for a single player that I can remember.
Arnold Ziffel
Curious, how does one figure out WAR?
Arnold Ziffel
Curious, how does one figure out WAR? .
hiflew
There is some algorithm that each website uses. Needlessly complicating things. I learned how to do math by calculating BA and ERA on the backs of baseball cards. Now you need a PhD in math in order to figure stuff out.
Arnold Ziffel
Look out below, heading to 100L
acoss13
Rockies aren’t going to sniff .500 baseball for a while, Giants are still a good team, Padres and Dodgers not withstanding.
BStrowman
The D’Backs are a near .500 baseball team too with all that young talent.
They could surprise like the O’s did last season. Wouldn’t shock me to see them finish 3rd.
acoss13
Yup, Arizona is getting better, and the Rockies seem rudderless so even more bad seasons coming to Colorado.
agentx
That potential Rodgers loss hurts for both him and the Rockies.
Given their “slim hopes of contention,” some combination of Bryant and Jones sharing most of the reps at 3B with McMahon at 2B sounds best to me. McMahon’s bat and glove both play well at the keystone.
Slim chance of a breakout, I know… but there’s something that I still like about Cole Tucker as a Cody Ransom-type backup 2B and/or utilityman.
Sour Bob
Cubs fans are always looking for someone to take Nick Madrigal off their hands, but in this situation, it might actually be a good idea for the Rockies to take a shot on him.
Rsox
McMahon likely back to 2B with either Bryant or Montero playing 3B. Bryant back to 3B would open LF for Toglia.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Agree, this will hurt a little of defense but maybe not so much on offense.
Datashark
Vidal Bruján suddenly has landing spots for a trade with LAD and COL
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Nah, but Colorado might go get a lefty reliever if one of the free agents is willing to take a one year offer at a low salary
hiflew
I doubt it. The Rox have been content running a pen with a single lefty for several years in the past.
BStrowman
Rox should call the O’s about an infielder.
Urias, Westburg, Vavra (who they could still have), or Norby all fit.
saratoga72
The #3 overall draft pick! Ahead of Kyle Tucker and Austin Riley. Good job as usual Denver!
hiflew
Austin Riley? Really? The guy was picked #41. Do you really think there is ANY team that would have taken him anywhere close to #3? The consensus 3 best prospects in that draft were Swanson, Bregman, and Rodgers. And a lot of places had Rodgers #1.
If he is your example of a bad draft pick, then your argument needs work. He is 26 and just won a Gold Glove in the major leagues.
BStrowman
Lol hiflew is right about the top of the draft. Rodgers was gonna be the pick out of HS. He certainly hasn’t lived up to expectations but there’s little certainty with a HS player.
BUT the Rockies did pick Tyler Nevin and give him 400K more dollars than Austin Riley at pick 38. Oops!
hiflew
Yeah and all 29 other teams passed on Riley also including the Braves twice. I don’t understand why you are making it a Rockies thing. Riley would have likely been traded anyway since Arenado had third base covered.
I just don’t understand why you think Rodgers is such a disappointment for a #3 pick. Out of 58 #3 picks of all time, Rodgers is already in the top 25 and has a long way to go in his career. Sure he might not reach the level of Yount or Molitor, but it is not like he is an embarrassment on the field or something.
BStrowman
This is a Rockies article.
There’s a million guys you can cherry pick that were drafted ahead of better players. That wasn’t a serious comment w Riley if it wasn’t obvious.
Top 25 In what? Rodgers career WAR is 4.8 if you take the most generous grading. here’s the #3 picks for the 5 years before his selection
2010- Machado
2011-Bauer
2012-Zunino
2013-Jon Gray
2014-Rodon
Rodgers is fine but he didn’t develop into the AS game changing SS you could’ve hoped.
BStrowman
Arbitrary anyway. Signing bonus is really more important than draft slots too. Heston Kjerstad was the #2 pick but did not receive a top 5 highest bonus.
Rodgers was a fine pick who has developed into a fine major leaguer so far. Not really what I was saying anyways. Drafting a HS player is a high variance selection. That’s likely why the 2 other teams rightfully passed on him for more established college players with similar ceilings at the time.
hiflew
You know the difference between Rodgers and those 5 guys? All of them were college players and got a much quicker start to their big league career.
And yes, #25 among #3 picks of all time in WAR. Already more accomplished than half of the #3 picks ever and still only 26. The point is not how good Rodgers is or can be, the point is that according to history, your expectations of the career of the average #3 pick is vastly inflated.
I noticed you only went back 5 years. Is that because you didn’t want to include Donovan Tate or Josh Vitters in your list?
BStrowman
Lol. How about 8 years so I could include Eric Hosmer?
The Saber-toothed Superfife
And it won’t stop Rockie & Bullwinkle from attending games and having a good time in Colorado!
I often ask, how do they keep the attendance so high?
greg7274
I don’t follow the Rockies too closely. But isn’t the guy they got from STL for Arenado a 3B?… Elehuris Montero?
Is he an issue on defense or something?
AHH-Rox
He’s an option at 3B. Seems below average on defense but not unplayable. And young so some chance he’ll improve.
And maybe Montero just seems iffy on defense because we got spoiled by watching Arenado and McMahon.
BenBenBen
For crying out loud, it’s permissible to start a sentence with the word meanwhile. Preferable to throwing it into the middle of your sentence, even.