Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

The Rockies entered the winter with payroll already at franchise-record heights. That portended a quiet offseason, which ultimately proved to be the case. Colorado made a couple low-cost veteran free agent pickups to round out the roster in Spring Training.

Major League Signings

• LF Jurickson Profar: One year, $7.75MM
• RHP Pierce Johnson: One year, $5MM
• RHP José Ureña: One year, $3.5MM (including buyout of 2024 club option)
• LHP Brad Hand: One year, $2MM (including buyout of 2024 club option)

2023 spending: $17.25MM
Total spending: $18.25MM

Option Decisions

• RF Charlie Blackmon exercised $15MM player option
• Team declined $8MM option on RHP Scott Oberg

Trades and Claims

• Traded LF Sam Hilliard to Braves for minor league RHP Dylan Spain
• Acquired RF Nolan Jones from Guardians for minor league 2B Juan Brito
• Claimed LHP Brent Suter off waivers from Milwaukee
• Traded RHP Chad Smith to A’s for minor league RHP Jeff Criswell
• Selected RHP Kevin Kelly from Guardians in Rule 5 draft, traded to Rays for cash
• Traded LF Connor Joe to Pirates for minor league RHP Nick Garcia
• Claimed RHP Nick Mears off waivers from Texas
• Acquired RHP Connor Seabold from Red Sox for player to be named later or cash

Notable Minor League Signings

• Fernando Abad, Ty Blach (later selected to 40-man roster), Matt Carasiti, Harold Castro (later selected to 40-man roster), Grayson Greiner, Matt Koch, Mike Moustakas (later selected to 40-man roster), Josh Rogers, Cole Tucker, Phillips Valdez

Extensions

• Signed RHP Tyler Kinley to three-year extension worth $6.25MM (deal also includes 2026 club option and potentially buys out two free agent years)

Notable Losses

• José Iglesias, Chad Kuhl, Carlos Estévez, Alex Colomé, Garrett Hampson (non-tendered), Dom Nuñez, Wynton Bernard, Oberg (retired), Ryan Vilade

The Rockies missed the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, falling to last place in the NL West for the first time since 2015. It’s not a good position for an organization that also entered the offseason with a player payroll projected at franchise-record heights. That was the case even before Nolan Arenado declined his opt-out chance with the Cardinals, which kicked in another $5MM annually in payments from Colorado to St. Louis over the next three seasons (on top of the reported $16MM the Rox were paying this year regardless of whether Arenado opted out).

It pointed to a relatively quiet offseason and that proved the case for much of the winter. Colorado made a couple early moves on the pitching front. José Ureña returned on a $3.5MM deal to serve a back-of-the-rotation role. The right-hander had started 17 games last season, allowing more than five earned runs per nine but generating a fair number of grounders. Colorado had to address the starting staff in some capacity with Ureña and Chad Kuhl both hitting the open market and Antonio Senzatela still recovering from last summer’s ACL tear.

They didn’t wind up doing much else on that front, perhaps in part thanks to the rising cost of mid-tier free agent starters. Colorado swung a small trade for depth starter Connor Seabold from Boston but will otherwise rely on internal rotation arms. Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland will be counted on to bounce back from disappointing 2022 seasons, as will Senzatela once healthy. Ureña grabs a back-end spot with Austin Gomber, while Ryan Feltner and Seabold could vie for depth appearances.

Colorado was a little more aggressive in addressing the bullpen. Carlos Estévez and Alex Colomé walked in free agency, leaving a couple holes in an already underwhelming relief corps. The Rockies targeted hard-throwing righty (and Denver native) Pierce Johnson in free agency, signing him to a $5MM deal. It was a bit of a surprising sum for a pitcher who was limited to 15 appearances last year by injury but he’s just a season removed from striking out nearly 32% of opponents with a 3.22 ERA over 58 2/3 innings. He’ll pick up some high-leverage work as a bridge to closer Daniel Bard.

Tyler Kinley could eventually return to setup work but he’ll miss a good chunk of this season rehabbing from last year’s elbow surgery. Colorado placed a show of faith in him this offseason, guaranteeing him $6.25MM to cover his final two seasons of arbitration and potentially buy out a pair of free agent years.

If Johnson’s an upside play at the back end, the Rox also brought in a couple more stable relief arms. Control specialist Brent Suter was claimed off waivers from Milwaukee. The Brewers had evidently determined not to tender the southpaw an arbitration contract in the $3MM range but the Rox stepped in to claim his final season of team control. He adds a multi-inning relief option for skipper Bud Black. That’s also true of left-hander Ty Blach, who returned on a non-roster deal over the winter and will break camp with the club.

Perhaps the highest-leverage southpaw will be three-time All-Star Brad Hand. The Rockies signed Hand late in the offseason to a $2MM deal (with another $1MM just for cracking the active roster) shortly after losing Lucas Gilbreath to Tommy John surgery. Hand has continued to keep runs off the board into his mid-30s but has seen his swing-and-miss numbers decline. He’s not the same pitcher he was a couple seasons back but for $3MM, just capable middle innings work would be a fine return on investment.

The buy-low approach to free agency also extended to the position player side of things. The Rockies were loosely linked to some bigger-ticket upgrades, primarily in the outfield. A left-handed hitter (preferably one who could play some center field) seemed to be on the target list. Yet players like Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto and particularly Brandon Nimmo all priced themselves well beyond the Rockies’ spending range.

Colorado didn’t sign a single position player to a major league free agent deal until the offseason was all but over. The Rockies waited out the market but eventually added an outfielder who could hit from the left side. Switch-hitting Jurickson Profar was the last unsigned player from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents. His market never materialized as he’d envisioned upon opting out of his deal with the Padres. He settles for a $7.75MM pillow deal in Colorado on the heels of a decent .243/.331/.391 showing with 15 homers. Profar brings a high-contact bat and solid offensive approach to Coors Field. He’s not a star, but the Rockies have to be pleased with the value they’re getting on a player whom most expected to land a higher annual salary over at least two or three years.

Profar’s signing pushes Kris Bryant from left to right field. Colorado will hope for better health from last winter’s $182MM signee. Randal Grichuk will start the season on the injured list, leaving Yonathan Daza as the frontrunner for center field work. Franchise stalwart Charlie Blackmon is back after making the obvious decision to exercise a $15MM player option; he could see some corner outfield reps but will spend most of his time at designated hitter.

Arguably the most significant acquisition of the Colorado offseason could factor into the corner outfield rotation at some point. As teams were reshuffling their rosters in advance of the Rule 5 draft in November, the Rockies lined up with the Guardians on a rare prospect for prospect swap. Power-hitting corner bat Nolan Jones landed in Colorado, while the Rockies sent Low-A middle infielder Juan Brito to Cleveland. It wasn’t about roster machinations — both Jones and Brito occupied spots on the 40-man — but was a rare case of two clubs valuing the other’s unproven player more than their own.

Jones won’t start the year in the majors, as he’s been optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque on the heels of a tough spring. He’s certain to get an MLB look at some point in the next few months. The Rockies are hopeful his blend of power and patience can offset big strikeout totals and some defensive questions to allow him to develop into a middle-of-the-order force. The 24-year-old is a .252/.361/.443 hitter in 655 Triple-A plate appearances and can be controlled through at least the 2028 season.

Colorado entered Spring Training without much question about their infield. C.J. Cron is back at first base. Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon are above-average second and third basemen, respectively. Rodgers was loosely floated in trade rumors, specifically regarding young Marlins righty Edward Cabrera. No deal came together and the Fish instead flipped Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez. The Rox made no effort to retain last year’s shortstop José Iglesias, with top prospect Ezequiel Tovar ticketed for regular work there. Colorado brought in bat-first utility player Harold Castro on a minor league deal, and he eventually cracked the MLB roster in a utility capacity.

That seemed like enough infield depth, particularly with Jones and Elehuris Montero also in the mix for third base playing time. Unfortunately, Rodgers dislocated his shoulder during a spring game. He underwent surgery and might miss the entire season. That pushed McMahon over to second base and led Colorado to look outside the organization. They rolled the dice on a bounceback from three-time All-Star Mike Moustakas, signing him to a minor league deal shortly after Rodgers’ injury.

Colorado has already informed Moustakas he’s breaking camp. He hasn’t performed well over the past two seasons, missing a good chunk of that time as he battled foot issues. At 34, it’s possible he’s just not an everyday player anymore. The acquisition cost was minimal, as the Reds will pay all but the league minimum of the $22MM still remaining on the contract he signed with Cincinnati three offseasons back. Moustakas offers a left-handed complement to the righty-swinging Montero and Cron in the infield corners.

Catching was a disaster for the Rockies last season. They made no effort to address it over the winter, instead relying on Elias Díaz and Brian Serven for another year. Signing Díaz to a three-year, $14.5MM extension two offseasons ago was an odd move at the time, one that looks a particularly poor decision after he hit only .228/.281/.368 during the first season of that deal. The Rockies are clearly of the opinion he can bounce back, but Díaz has been a below-average hitter and gotten dreadful defensive grades from public metrics throughout his career.

Continuity has been a theme for the Rockies in recent years. Even as the losses have mounted, ownership and the front office have broadcast confidence in the group. Colorado has refused to entertain the possibility of rebuilding. They’ve committed to so many players on contract extensions (plus the Bryant megadeal) they probably couldn’t pivot to a teardown even if they wanted to at this point. That continued this winter, both in the form of an extension for skipper Bud Black to run through 2024 and comments from owner Dick Monfort about the state of the roster.

Monfort has previously caught flak for optimistic projections of playoff competitiveness that haven’t borne out. He wasn’t quite so bullish this offseason but again found himself in headlines in January, when he suggested the team could be around .500. That’s not the loftiest goal but again seems unlikely. The Rockies have one of the game’s thinnest starting rotations and a lineup that was middle-of-the-road in on-base percentage and slugging last year despite playing half its games at Coors Field.

The Rockies swapped out Dave Magadan for Hensley Meulens as hitting coach, hopeful a new voice can generate some more offense. Aside from Profar, they didn’t add anyone from outside the organization who’s likely to provide above-average hitting. Even if Bryant stays healthy and Tovar hits the ground running, Colorado is facing an uphill battle.

In Monfort’s defense, his proclamation of .500 ball came before Colorado lost one of its best players (Rodgers) to injury. Still, even another strong season from the Gold Glove second baseman would have been very unlikely to make this an average roster. FanGraphs’ projections peg the Rockies and Nationals as the two worst teams in the majors; Baseball Prospectus has Colorado 26th in MLB. Preseason projections will have misses, of course, but the Rox would have to win 15-20 more games than those outlets anticipate to get to .500.

In all likelihood, Colorado is headed for another losing season. There’s some room for optimism in the farm system. Tovar is already in the majors. The likes of Zac Veen, Drew Romo and Warming Bernabel are climbing the minor league ranks and have a chance to be important core position players in the not too distant future. The major league team continues to more or less spin its wheels, awaiting the arrival of a bulk of young talent from within the system while the MLB roster falls short of organizational expectations.

That was never going to be resolved in one offseason, and Colorado’s transactions this winter are all justifiable. It remains hard to discern the long-term plan, though, particularly as they again run up against one of the sport’s toughest division competitors.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a Rockies-centric chat on March 30. Click here to view the transcript.

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