The Guardians had a pretty quiet offseason, but they splurged (by their modest payroll standards) on a pair of everyday sluggers to augment the lineup.
Major League Signings
- Josh Bell, 1B: Two years, $33MM (Bell can opt out after 2023 season)
- Mike Zunino, C: One year, $6MM
2023 spending: $22.5MM
Total spending: $39MM
Option Decisions
- None
Trades & Claims
- Acquired minor league IF Juan Brito from Rockies for IF/OF Nolan Jones
- Acquired cash considerations or player to be named later from Brewers for IF Owen Miller
- Acquired minor league OF Justin Boyd and player to be named later from Reds for OF Will Benson
- Acquired minor league SP Ross Carver from Diamondbacks for RP Carlos Vargas
- Acquired cash considerations from Cardinals for minor league IF Jose Fermin
- Claimed SP/RP Jason Bilous off waivers from White Sox
Notable Minor League Signings
- Anthony Gose, Zack Collins, Cam Gallagher, Touki Toussaint, Roman Quinn, Meibrys Viloria, Caleb Baragar, Dusten Knight, Phillip Diehl, Michael Kelly
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
Josh Bell and Mike Zunino have combined for 82 home runs in 1713 total plate appearances since the start of the 2021 season, while the Guardians had a collective 127 homers over 6163 PA during the 2022 season. Of all 30 Major League teams, only the punchless Tigers went yard fewer times than the Guardians in 2022, making power the obvious need for Cleveland heading into the offseason.
This isn’t to say that Bell or Zunino were necessarily at the top of the wishlist. Zunino might not have even been the second choice, as such catchers as Sean Murphy and Christian Vazquez also drew interest from the Guards in both the trade and free agent markets. However, the A’s and Guardians never lined up on a trade match for Murphy, and thus the backstop ended up headed to the Braves as part of a three-team, nine-player deal. Vazquez, meanwhile, went elsewhere in the AL Central by signing a three-year, $30MM pact with the Twins.
With other options off the market, Cleveland pivoted to Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal — significantly less than the cost of Vazquez’s deal, or the prospect cost it would’ve taken for the Guardians to top Atlanta’s offer for Murphy. It’s fair to assume that the Guards’ limited payroll played some role in the front office’s decision to ultimately land on Zunino, as well as the team’s related need to use its minor league system as a steady pipeline of talent.
If Zunino is healthy, the Guardians can reasonably count on the backstop to deliver his customary blend of strong defense, a lot of power, and also a lot of strikeouts at the plate. Health is no guarantee, however, since Zunino’s 2022 season was cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in July. TOS surgery is still a new enough procedure that there isn’t much of a proven track record for predicting how well a player (particularly a hitter) might rebound in the aftermath.
In short, it means that the Guardians are somewhat rolling the dice with a position that has been relatively stable for years. Cleveland has long been willing to accept subpar offense from their catchers (i.e. Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges, or Luke Maile) in exchange for excellent glovework, and yet in the wake of Zunino’s surgery, the Guardians don’t really know what they’re getting offensively or defensively behind the plate.
Unsurprisingly, the Guards have tried to mitigate that risk with other catchers, signing Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria, and Zack Collins to minor league deals. That trio and in-house candidates Bryan Lavastida and David Fry are all in competition for the backup catching job, and the Guardians are also surely hoping that Bo Naylor earns another MLB promotion at some point in 2023. Naylor will begin the season at Triple-A to amass more regular playing time, but if Zunino or any of the backup candidates struggle, it might force Cleveland’s hand in regard to how much more time Naylor spends in the minors.
The catching position needed to be addressed with Hedges and Maile entering free agency, and first base also stood out as a position of need considering the Guards’ need for power. The answer was Bell, who will team with Josh Naylor (Bo’s brother) in a first base/DH timeshare. It is worth noting that Jose Abreu was another prominent name the Guardians considered, to the point that the Guards reportedly made Abreu a three-year offer before the first baseman opted to sign with the Astros for a three-year, $58.5MM deal that was presumably out of Cleveland’s price range.
Bell’s contract is for a more modest $33MM over two years, and it might end up being a one-year, $16.5MM pact since Bell has the ability to opt out after the 2023 season. The contract size and structure reflects Bell’s inconsistency over the last four seasons, as other teams may have been wary about giving a longer-term deal to a player with so many extreme peaks and valleys in his production.
The bottom-line numbers are strong, as Bell has hit .264/.353/.475 with 89 homers in 2051 PA since the start of the 2019 season, translating to a solidly above-average 120 wRC+. But, the 2022 season was a microcosm of Bell’s ability to swing between hot and cold. After crushing the ball with the Nationals prior to the trade deadline, Bell was dealt to the Padres as part of the blockbuster Juan Soto trade, and the first baseman then struggled badly with San Diego.
On the plus side, Bell’s high-contact, low-strikeout approach at the plate is a match for a Guardians team that adheres to that offensive philosophy. There is also a chance that Bell’s best power numbers are yet to come, if he can get the ball in the air more often and cut back on his near-league-leading grounder totals.
Bell and Zunino are the big additions to a Cleveland roster that will look very familiar to the 2022 model, and the “if it ain’t broke…” logic can certainly apply to the Guardians’ relatively slow winter. The Guards were the youngest team in baseball in 2022, and yet many of these young talents helped lead Cleveland to the AL Central title and then the deciding fifth game of the ALDS against the Yankees. As well, an argument can be made that the Guardians were ahead of the curve in preparing for the 2023 season, since they’ve already built a roster based around speed and defense heading into a season where both facets of the game will be emphasized by the new rules. (Even the pitch clock adjustment should be less difficult for a team with so many players who have so recently competed under a clock in the minor leagues.)
President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti left no wiggle room in stating they “have every intention of trying to contend [in 2023], and trying to win a World Series.” Still, even if the Guardians considered trading for Murphy, the concept of packaging several prospects in a win-now move generally isn’t Cleveland’s style. Likewise, even trading more established players like Amed Rosario, Aaron Civale, or Zach Plesac to create room for the newcomers might’ve been a tactic the Guardians would’ve explored if they didn’t feel they were genuinely close to competing for a championship. This isn’t to say that one of the starting pitchers or maybe even an everyday shortstop like Rosario might not be on the trade block by the deadline, but that would mean that either the Guardians have fallen out of the race, or else the team has immense faith that one of its wealth of young pitchers or young middle infielders is ready for a larger role.
The Guards did move some younger players in trades this winter, partly out of necessity to open up 40-man roster spaces for more up-and-comers. Will Benson, Carlos Vargas, Owen Miller, and Jose Fermin all had some nice numbers in the minor leagues and Benson and Miller had even made their MLB debuts, but the Guardians moved all four of these players in low-level deals for cash or for minor leaguers who didn’t yet need to be placed on the 40-man.
The Nolan Jones-for-Juan Brito trade was a bit different, as Brito did immediately secure a spot on the 40-man roster. The deal probably came as a surprise to some Cleveland fans who wondered why the Guardians were moving a player recently considered among the team’s top prospects, since Jones was a regular on top-100 lists from 2019-21. That said, the Guards felt comfortable in moving Jones (coming off his MLB debut season) to the Rockies for Brito, a 21-year-old middle infielder who has yet to reach high-A ball.
It could be the Guardians were simply taken by Brito’s ability strong minor league production and up-the-middle defensive profile, or perhaps they had concerns about Jones’ high strikeout totals and his lack of a clear-cut defensive position. A natural third baseman, he obviously had no path to playing time at the hot corner in Cleveland. Since Jones was ultimately dealt for a prospect and not more of a win-now piece, perhaps other teams shared these concerns about Jones’ viability at the big league level.
More deals could certainly emerge over the course of the season, as the Guardians could be tempted to make a more significant prospect-for-veteran swap at the deadline in order to bolster themselves for a playoff race. Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have set out to make the Guardians into perpetual contenders rather than a team that pushes their chips in for a singular run, but there might be a bit of extra pressure to try and win while the Guards still have Bell, Rosario (set for free agency after the 2023 season), Shane Bieber (after 2024), and while Jose Ramirez is still in his prime. Plus, given how longtime manager Terry Francona isn’t sure how long his health problems will allow him to keep managing, the organization surely wants to capitalize on having one of the game’s best skippers in the dugout.
We’ve already seen some hints of Cleveland’s aggressiveness in its payroll hike, as the Guardians are set to spend around $90.7MM in 2023. It isn’t a top-tier payroll by any measure, but it is an increase from the approximate $69MM the Guards spent on last year’s player budget. It remains to be seen how much more leeway (if any) Antonetti and Chernoff have for any midseason additions, though it’s probably safe to assume that the Guardians aren’t going to suddenly splurge on any high salaries at the deadline.
How would you grade the Guardians’ offseason? (Link to poll)
Tribe looking good, Ramirez is a beast.
Can we still use the word “Tribe”or is that a no-no as well?
You cannot. Ban incoming.
The word “Wow” needs to be banned as an opening post…
Probably a no-no Curly. Only a matter of time before your movies are banned.
They might influence childen watching. However, dancing around and grabbing ones crotch is OK.
–
Did you know that of the 7 Stooges (over the years) Curly was far and away the most popular?
certainly. Nuc,nuc,Nuc
@Samuel-been a fan of Jerome Lester Horwitz (aka Curly) all my life. I’ve watched Curly’s shows for about 65 years, never ceases to make me laugh. My parents didn’t want me to watch them, but, didn’t stop me. I caught your reference to what is OK now for our kids to watch. I dread the next censored movie, book, or free speech net chat.
It’s spelled “soitenly”
You can, but it doesn’t make sense anymore.
It’s coming. The deranged woke crowd won’t like that either.
Wait until they catch some of the Roadrunner cartoons. Prepare for more riots in the streets.
Someone said ‘woke’, everybody drink!
It appears that both fans and the national media dismissed what the Guardians did last year with – “they played in a weak division” or “they got hot” or “other than Bieber and Rameriz I don’t see that they have any decent players…they got lucky”.
This is an organization that does it right – in the FO, in developing players, in the way they play on the field, and how the best manager in MLB works.
Since Terry Francona came to Cleveland, just about every year they’re played their best baseball in the stretch run. That’s the way the smart teams do it. It’s why overall public statistics misrepresent what players on a team are doing, and “they just got hot at the right time” is for fans that don’t understand what’s going on on the field.
Along the same lines, there are many people here that think that “clutch” is myth. They’ll write that statistics show it doesn’t exist. This from the Janson Kipnis hosted chat earlier this week:
Box Score Willie
11:18 Do you think it’s true there’s no such thing as clutch hitters in the majors? Odds are the same no matter how much pressure, or are some hitters better at coming through with the big hit?
Jason Kipnis
11:18 Not sure where you heard there aren’t! Some hitters become hyper focused in what they’re trying to do at the plate in crunch time.”
Jason played with Cleveland and for Tito. Then again, every player, manger, coach and FO person in organized baseball knows.
@Samuel It makes only a trivial difference (as a single data point among millions of events and opinions) what Jason Kipnis believes. In any case, being “hyper focused” (ooh, science!) hardly means a player is more likely to perform well. Being relaxed and simply paying attention is often relayed as the difference-maker in the matter of clutchiness.
Still, clutchers will always have Eddie Murray to point to, and it may well be that a few guys __can__ turn it on in clutch situations—but the complete lack of evidence that pro ballplayers can step on it with any regularity is telling, and essentially conclusive.
Besides, why is it that men in scoring position matter more than the tens of millions of dollars at stake? And why is it that the ostensibly clutch are so lazy at other times? Is being ‘hyper focused’ really that elusive, something that if you can find, wins games, confers stardom and fabulous riches? And if it is, why didn’t teams decades ago hire gurus and buddhists to teach how to achieve access to hyper focused states with monotonous regularity (say, four-five plate appearances a day)?
I’m thinking .500 at best
I rest my point.
You think they are going to do better? .500 is pretty good :\
They’ve been above .500 every year since they hired Francona in 2013. The year they weren’t, they went 80-82.
Let’s put it this way I’m picking the Twins in the Central
The Twins should rebound from some bad injury luck. But they’re also a generally older team which will still have some injuries.
The Guardians are incredibly young and also haven’t debuted most of their top prospects. All of this youth they debuted last year was very much not their top prospects.
Well just rest assured the AL Central is God’s favorite division.
Well one things for sure in the AL Central, Royals will b last.
The Royals blow. Sub 60 win season incoming.
The Tigers are worse.
Cleveland
Minnesota
Sox
KCR
Cesspool
Cleveland is young and has what looks like a great farm system, but there’s a long history of young guys flaming out quick. If the Guardians’ young core continues to produce, they’re going to be a real tough team for many coming years. Just have to wait and see.
I guess the Guardians did so little it wasn’t worth the letter grade poll.
Bell should hit better in Cleveland than he did in San Diego. If Zunino rebounds from TOS he is probably as good as Hedges defensively and has(had?) a pretty decent power bat, Problem is he may still have the same batting average as Hedges…
Bell finna rake with that no shift!
before injuries zunino was very good defensively but he was no hedges. no one is. after all the injuries? to be determined
Hm was Yadi as good defensively as Hedges yes.
I didn’t realize Zunino had TOS surgery last year. It kind of surprises me CLE would make that gamble, but then again they rarely make a bad move.
It’s not much of a gamble buddy
$6M for them is a gamble. The FO has never been one to throw any kind of money around since they got burned by the Michael Bourne and Nick Swisher signings 10 years ago.
Just remember, the Nick Swisher signing gave the Yankess Aaron Judge.
i mean after last year i trust whatever they do at this point. i gave them no shot either last year. tito seems to get the best out of his guys and plays and adapts to their strengths
The fans that don’t see Cleveland as the clear favorite are betting on regression from multiple Guardians youngsters, particularly Kwan and Gimenez….plus Clevelands inability to maintain a healthy roster as it did in 2022…plus healthy seasons from the significant producers for Chicago and Minnesota.
There are several problems with those expectations.
If you look closely at the pro production of Clevelands better young players, you dont see anything truly unusual about their seasons last year. They almost all fell under the natural progression that you would expect from high quality prospects with very good skill sets, as opposed to merely having tools. IMO it is more likely that young players…like Josh Naylor, Kwan, and Gimenez…actually progress, rather than regress towards some kind of common ‘norm’.
Track records and trend lines are important when setting expectations. That includes health. The Guardians key players mostly have track records of health…completely opposite of many of the core players of the other two ALC contenders.
To top that off, there is no part of the Cleveland roster…rotation, bullpen, infield, outfield, catching…that isn’t backed up by depth, lots of it. And that depth is MLB ready, or very close to it. Minnesota and esp Chicago can’t say that. Cleveland has the depth to cover injuries.
As just one example, Cleveland has probably 13-15 starting pitchers that under normal circumstances could be expected to pitch in MLB at some point this year…and not filler types.
If you only look at the starting lineups, you might not favor Cleveland. If you look at the 26 man rosters, you might not favor Cleveland. But 162 game seasons require 45 players, and Cleveland has a big advantage when it comes to the 45 man player pools.
Don’t sleep on the Twins’ starting pitching upside. Falter, Varland, Winder and Woods-Richardson are all enviable depth pieces. None of them are projected for the 5 man rotation.
And while I also give the Guardians an edge due to the depth of their farm system, health can be fluky. Espino and Valera are major parts of the Guardians’ long term plans and both are currently injured.
Correction: the Twins have Bailey Ober, not Falter
Certainly meaning no offense to the Twins SP prospects you listed, but Cleveland may have four that are more highly thought of than any of them. All will begin in AAA, or are on track to be by midseason. On top of those four, the Guards have four others who have already made their MLB debut, and a fifth who spent the entire year in AAA.
Injuries may tend to be fluky, as you say, but track records are fairly reliable at placing likelihood on injuries.
Pick the two or three best position players on each of the three ALC contenders, and then choose an over/under of 100 games for the season. If you are being honest, you will see the difference.
Nice post. I don’t see then repeating for the group of reason you mentioned initially. It’s just to tough of a division to repeat.
13-15 starters… that’s astronomically optimistic. I’m not sure who you’re banking on, but most of the high minors starters the Guardians have struggled with control or are giving up a lot of hits per inning, even in their MiLB leagues last year.
There’s plenty of potential, but the expectation they’re MLB caliber starters right now isn’t realistic.
Lets see now…
Bieber
McKenzie
Quantrill
Plesac
Civale
Morris
Pilkington
Battenfield
Curry
Gaddis
Allen
Bibee
Espino
Williams
Thats a quick 14, all either in Cleveland or Columbus, or already with experience in AA and due to be in Columbus by midseason…if there is room.
The entire premise is how Cleveland’s overall roster stacks up against Minnesota and Chicago. No way can the other two come close to matching Clevelands depth…and it takes depth to get thru 162 games.
Starting pitching is merely one example.
I’d add Cantillo and Burns too. Cantillo is already on the 40-man too so he’s probably one of the next ones in line.
I wouldn’t bet on Espino or Burns being this year just because of Espino’s health and Burns having so many guys ahead of him, but I don’t think I’d be surprised if anyone else on that list makes a start for them this year.
Bieber and McKenzie look great.
After that, way murkier.
Quantrill’s 3.38 ERA was not mirrored in the #4 caliber starter 4.12 and 4.39 xFIPs for example. He doesn’t generate strikeouts at all, but doesn’t issue free passes, either. On the plus side, his career ERA has been lower than the advanced metrics expect. Tough to say how his historically high strand rate will be impacted by limits on the shift and changes to the base paths. Smoke and mirrors may not work as well this year.
Plesac’s a back end rotation arm any team would be looking to upgrade away from.
Civale’s a bit of wild card because of the K-BB%, but his pitches were often barreled up last year. Oft injured with a declining velocity and a hard hit rate trending in the opposite direction of good, I wouldn’t expect much from him.
Morris was exposed against MLB caliber bats last year. When he wasn’t walking guys, they were teeing off on him. It was only through sheer luck his numbers looked good. He’s not particularly young, he’s injury prone, and he doesn’t profile as a surefire starter.
Like I said. Cleveland’s rotation and pipeline has plenty of guys who are far from sure things at the MLB level.
martras;
A year ago you could have written even worse about McKenzie.
Advanced stats don’t do well regarding the near future of players that are employed by MLB organizations that do superior developmental work at all levels….especially the ML level.
McKenzie got people to strike out in 2020 and 2021 and he’s never allowed a lot of hits. That can be often be worked with.
Giving up lots of hits, lots of walks and not striking guys out? That usually doesn’t work out well. Automatically counting on guys who haven’t been dominant in the minors despite not being super young to turn it all around later remains optimistic in my opinion.
Cleveland has done really well developing arms and they’ve had some really great rotations over the past decade including a lot of success developing guys later than normal prospects emerge (Carrasco, Clevenger, Kluber), but it’s come after being exposed at the MLB level. They weren’t MLB caliber starters out of the gate, they were carried by other members of the rotation, often for 2-3 years before figuring it out.
The magic might not be quite what it was 5 or 10 years ago in Cleveland. Just have to wait and see.
fWAR
2022 = 14th
2021 = 21st
2020 = 2nd
2019 = 5th
2018 = 1st
2017 = 1st
2016 = 8th
2015 = 5th
2014 = 4th
2013 = 5th
I’m a White Sox fan and am very jealous of this well-run organization. They are loaded with young talent at both the Major and Minor league levels.
They easily won the divsion last year and nearly knocked off the Yankees in the playoffs because they are very good. Not lucky.
They will be at least as good, if not better, this year. Yes, it’s a weak division but I would be more shocked if they missed the playoffs than I would be if they made it to the World Series.
I think that they should have kept Hedges over bringing in Zunino, but I liked the Bell signing for them. Their biggest need was one more big bat, and that’s what he is… sometimes. It was a low risk/high reward deal that will potentially fill their biggest need.
They didn’t need to add to the pitching staff, as their pitching should be elite or close to it (both this season and for years to come).
This a team that is rapidly trending upwards. 2024 should be another step forward.
I think we should be better offensively. No Bradley or Zimmer or Miller and if Straw is not better, Brennan will be a productive replacement. I doubt if our relief pitching will be as good and we are likely to have more injuries than last year. I have us at 87 or 88 wins. Is that enough to get us into the playoffs?
Does anyone know what the people who protested the pre-Guardian name are protesting now?
A recent article in Old White Grievance Quarterly mentioned several issues being protested.
Old White Grievance Quarterly? My grandpa has been subscribed to that newsletter for ages
The Indians probably won’t be as good this year, given they don’t get to beat up on AL Central garbage teams.
Nor do the Twins or White Sox. So it’s kind of irrelevant.
They probably are protesting American democracy
@Bubba ho tep I’m sorry—American what, now?
Even Jimmy Carter, America’s most admirable ex-President (read that clause carefully, y’all), noted decades ago that the U.S. had become an oligarchy.
Solid 90 win team
An underrated thing to consider is that the Guardians gave a combined 1700 plate appearances to Hedges, Maile, Franmil Reyes, Owen Miller, Oscar Mercado, and Ernie Clement last year. Those guys combined to hit .211/.271/.315 and none of them are still in the organization.
We talk a lot about young guys progressing (which I think can happen), but giving those plate appearances to Zunino/Naylor, Bell, Gabriel Arias, Will Brennan, and Tyler Freeman should be a huge improvement.
And you think that Minnesota’s MLB ready depth is better…more sure fire MLB quality…than Cleveland’s?
You like Maeda better than Plesac?
Fine…lol.