After five straight dismal seasons, the Orioles finally showed signs of life in 2022. Their farm system truly started producing for the big league club and they won 83 games, their best tally since 2016. That led to hopes of an aggressive winter, with general manager Mike Elias fanning those flames as the offseason was ramping up. But in the end, the club avoided big splashes and stuck to a few modest moves. The future is still bright in Baltimore as the organization is loaded with young talent, but a true pedal-to-the-metal move hasn’t materialized yet.
Major League Signings
- RHP Kyle Gibson: one-year, $10MM
- IF/OF Adam Frazier: one-year, $8MM
- RHP Mychal Givens: one-year, $5MM, including 2024 mutual option
2022 spending: $23MM
Total spending: $23MM
Option Decisions
- Club declined $11MM option on RHP Jordan Lyles in favor of $1MM buyout
Trades And Claims
- Claimed OF Jake Cave off waivers from Twins (later lost on waivers to Phillies)
- Claimed C Mark Kolozsvary off waivers from Reds (later outrighted off 40-man roster)
- Claimed C Aramis Garcia off waivers from Reds (later outrighted and elected free agency)
- Claimed OF Daz Cameron off waivers from Tigers (later outrighted off 40-man roster)
- Claimed 1B Lewin Díaz off waivers from Pirates (later traded to Braves, claimed again and then outrighted off 40-man)
- Selected RHP Andrew Politi from Red Sox in Rule 5 draft
- Acquired C James McCann and cash considerations from Mets for a player to be named later (later named as IF/OF Luis De La Cruz)
- Traded IF Tyler Nevin to Tigers for cash considerations
- Acquired 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn from Royals for cash considerations (later outrighted off 40-man roster)
- Acquired LHP Darwinzon Hernandez from Red Sox for cash considerations (later outrighted off 40-man roster)
- Acquired LHP Cole Irvin and RHP Kyle Virbitsky from A’s for IF Darell Hernaiz
Extensions
- None
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
- Lyles, Rougned Odor, Cam Gallagher, Brett Phillips, Jesús Aguilar, Chris Owings, Robinson Chirinos, Jake Reed, Beau Sulser, Louis Head, Chris Ellis, Yusniel Díaz
“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” general manager Mike Elias said in August. “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively. We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”
“The success…has only cemented those plans. I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying. I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”
Here’s another Elias comment from August, relayed by Dan Connolly of The Athletic: “I think it’s liftoff from here for this team.”
Those comments surely led to a wide spectrum of interpretations and expectations among the club’s fanbase. Some might have been on the more skeptical side, while others might have been dreaming of a big splash such as one of the top shortstops or an elite starter. The club reportedly did sniff around the “Big Four” shortstops but never really seemed to be close to getting anything done there. They were also connected to starters like Carlos Rodón and Jameson Taillon and others. But again, they never really seemed to close to winning those bids and those players ultimately signed elsewhere.
The club did make a couple of moves for their rotation, but nothing approaching the level of a Rodón or a Taillon. They turned down an $11MM option over veteran Jordan Lyles, opting instead for the $1MM buyout. A few weeks later, they redirected the $10MM they saved to another veteran innings eater in Kyle Gibson. On the surface, that actually seems like something of a downgrade, as Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA last year to Gibson’s 5.05. One could dig deeper and find that Gibson had better peripherals and a lower FIP, and this will perhaps turn into a savvy swap. But in the grand scheme of things, we’re talking about a move that is essentially net neutral.
The other new addition to the rotation is Cole Irvin, acquired from the A’s with each team getting a new prospect in the deal as well. Irvin is somewhat similar to Gibson in that he’s expected to be a competent but not elite member of the rotation. He made 62 starts for the A’s over the past two years with a 4.11 ERA, but will be moving from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum to the AL East. Oriole Park is a bit kinder to pitchers since they moved the left field fence back last year, but Irvin will still have to take the mound in the less-friendly stadiums around the division while facing some strong lineups. He has done well over the past couple of seasons and is cheap since he’s yet to reach arbitration, but there’s some risk here.
There were also some modest additions made to the position player mix. Adam Frazier was brought aboard with a one-year deal to essentially replace Rougned Odor as the veteran second baseman. He’s coming off a down year at the plate but is generally graded well with the glove. His bat has oscillated hot and cold over the years, and he’ll be a nice piece if he can have one of those good seasons. If one of the Orioles’ many infield prospect eventually pushes for a larger share of the second base reps, Frazier has plenty of experience in left field, too.
The club also bought low by acquiring James McCann from the Mets, as he’s coming off two straight disappointing seasons. He still has two years remaining on his four-year, $40.6MM deal, but the Mets are paying down most of it. The O’s will only be responsible for paying $5MM total over those two years. With Adley Rutschman firmly cemented as the backstop for years to come, the O’s only need McCann to be a serviceable backup. If his bat rebounds to where it was in 2019 and 2020, that would be a nice bonus, but they’re not relying on it. Notably, McCann has a strong track record against lefties (despite a poor showing in 2022), and the switch-hitting Rutschman was far better as a left-handed hitter than as a right-handed hitter during his debut season. The O’s aren’t going to immediately relegate Rutschman to platoon status, but McCann still gives them some nice balance in their catching duo.
And what else? Mychal Givens got $5MM to bring an established veteran presence to the bullpen. The depth was fortified by waiver claims on players like Ryan O’Hearn and Lewin Díaz, twice in the latter case. Both players were eventually outrighted to serve as non-roster depth alongside minor league signees like Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero. That’s about it.
As mentioned earlier, fans likely had varying ideas of what to expect this winter with those comments from Elias, but it’s hard to really feel like this is what he had in mind. The club’s current payroll is effectively stagnant relative to the end of last year, with Roster Resource putting a $63MM figure on both tallies. That places them 29th in the league, with only the A’s behind them. After saying he would “significantly” escalate the payroll, it’s hard to characterize that as anything but a disappointment. Was it “a lot of fun,” as Elias predicted, to swap Lyles for Gibson and then add Irvin, McCann, Frazier and Givens?
The disparity between the promise and the delivery might be chalked up to the changes in the offseason environment. Most of the marquee free agents beat the industry projections, often by wide margins. Xander Bogaerts, for instance, got around $100MM more than most expected. Even mid-rotation starters like Taillon and Taijuan Walker did much better than their projections. Perhaps Elias expected to come away with more here and was simply priced out. There would be little sense in raising hopes if he had no intention in coming through.
Regardless of how or why it happened, the O’s are going into 2023 with a fairly similar roster to last year, which isn’t really a bad thing. The club’s farm system truly started to bear fruit at the big league level last year, with prospects like Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers and others debuting and showing strong potential. There’s even more coming through the pipeline with Grayson Rodriguez, one of the best pitching prospects in the league, potentially jumping right into the Opening Day rotation here in 2023.
Those should be fixtures on the big league team this year and for years to come, alongside other incumbents like Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and others. The pitching seems a little less exciting, with Gibson and Irvin joined by some other hurlers that are still trying to cement themselves as viable big leaguers, such as Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and Tyler Wells.
Despite all those prospects jumping up to the big leagues, the system still has more. After Rodriguez, the club also has highly-regarded prospects like DL Hall, Connor Norby, Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday. Aside from Holliday, those guys will all be in the upper levels of the minors and could join the team this year depending on how the year progresses.
Overall, the club is still in great shape for the future, as they are loaded with young and controllable talent. The lack of recent spending means that there’s close to nothing on the books going forward. But it was hoped by many that the young core would be supplemented by aggressive moves to add established veterans. Elias asserted that was the plan and did bring in some complementary pieces, but not really at the level he seemed to imply.
Leaving aside the players for a moment, another key storyline for the Orioles this winter was the apparent turmoil within the Angelos family. Peter Angelos has owned the team for decades but has been suffering poor health since he collapsed in 2017. It seems that his wife Georgia and their two sons, John and Louis, have been in disagreement about how to proceed with the franchise. It was reported in June of last year that John had been approved by MLB as Baltimore’s “control person” but with Louis suing his brother over those developments and others. Georgia then filed a countersuit against Louis, alleging he fabricated claims in his own attempt to seize power. Despite that seemingly ugly battle, an agreement was reached in February whereby all parties agreed to drop their lawsuits.
Amid all those lawsuits were accusations about a potential sale of the club, with John and Georgia both accused of trying to explore the possibility at times. Alongside this, the club declined a five-year lease extension at Camden Yards in February. That creates some uncertainty about the club’s future in Baltimore, but it seems that this is merely a temporary issue. The club is hoping to get a new deal in place that’s 10-15 years in length so that the Maryland Stadium Authority can qualify for a $600MM loan for stadium upgrades. John Angelos has been adamant that the club is not looking to relocate, nor are they seriously pursuing a sale. He’s also said they would like to get into the top half of the league in terms of spending at some point.
That provides some hope for the future, but that didn’t come to fruition this winter. As mentioned, the club’s payroll is higher than last year but still just 29th among the 30 clubs in the league. Despite a winter devoid of splashy moves, the on-field product is still in decent shape. They won 83 games last year and still have plenty of prospects on the rise. However, young players don’t always progress in a linear fashion, and this particular group will be trying to compete in what is arguably the strongest division in the league. There’s light over the horizon, but it’s still not clear how close the new dawn really is.
How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason? (Link to poll)
In conjunction with the Orioles’ offseason review, we held an Orioles-focused chat on March 7. You can click here to read the transcript.
Gave them a “C,” but with the prospects they have I wouldn’t have done anything bold either. There will be a better opportunity once they see what they have and what they still need. Patience, Grasshopper.
I reached for the C for your same reasons then downgraded to a D for the Gibson signing. If your payroll is 29th in the league and you’ve got a rotation spot to fill and you expect to hope for a playoff spot. You should really aim higher than an aging had a bad year innings eater
Took the words right out of my mouth as I gave them a “C” for the same reason. But watch Politi. I believe he’s the real thing and another dunderheaded move by Bloom.
C for me too. But then again I’m the impatient type. Let’s win now!!!
All said, IMO, not being able to see what they have in Rodriguez (and Hall to a lessor extent) due to injury in 22 determined their off season spending. FO is showing patience. Gibson is an innings eater and Irvin is an innings eater with upside. IE. placeholders. Here’s hoping Rod and Hall are the real deal! If not, Elias spends big bucks on pitching next off season.
I almost selected C, but I selected B for the exact same reasons (really good prospects) alleviating the need for them to do more. In hindsight, I think C is a more appropriate offseason grade.
Looking forward to seeing what Gunnar can do though.
Orioles have done well with the development of top draft picks and prospects but intentionally keeping payrolls low is never going to be a strategy that’s popular in any sport. That’s purposely taking L’s by giving starts to worse players than what could be had in free agency. It’s admitting we aren’t here to win. There’s no reason why a team can’t be built to play competitively while perfecting your developmental program. None.
Adam Frazier was a headscratcher but the Orioles value the veteran presence there (as seen with Odor the year prior) and the decision to move from Lyles->Gibson is ??? but Cole Irvin was a smart get from a dopey A’s front office and nearly everything else was unsexy and conservative.
People are gonna find that if the Orioles are competitive at the deadline, they will in fact spend prospect capital to play down the stretch. Mike Elias is shockingly scary with his ability to find undervalued assets. It will be one of the more interesting deadlines in franchise history.
“There’s no reason why a team can’t be built to play competitively while perfecting your developmental program. None.”
LOL
schwender;
Finishing off developed players includes breaking them into the majors by giving them playing time in opportune match-ups at the ML level. At the same time it’s important to have some veterans in the lineup on short-term contracts to help bring the youngsters along (something the Pirates did not do in 2022 and paid for – this past off-season they brought a number of veterans in on short-term contracts).
The Orioles are taking the exact same approach that the Guardians and Rays are doing – primarily banking on their home grown youngsters that they’ll control for years to form a contending team for those years. All 3 of those teams are loaded with quality youngsters both on their ML rosters and in the high minors. There are no guarantees. Some of their highly regarded prospects are going to either wash out or be ordinary at best. No one knows for sure which players will wind up in what category. But the worst thing in the world is to block a youngster from getting playing time, give up on him when he isn’t showing much, then lose him to another team and he becomes an affordable star.
Ashley Rushman plays the most important position in baseball – Catcher. That position affects a teams success or lack thereof more than any other (there are no public statistics that accurately reflect that….see Maldonado, Martin). He’s already one of the best in MLB. The Orioles record in 2022 after he was called up was 67-55 – which included breaking in a lot of called up youngsters late in the year.
What The Orioles, Guardians, and Rays understand is that you throw the depth chart out, and ignore projections based on publicly available data. When a team has an overabundance of quality youngsters the ones that improve have a cumulative effect on the teams W-L record. Veteran teams that constantly try to buy a pennant wind up with older players that get injured more often and take longer to heal when they do. Those that stay healthy seldom have breakout years or improve markedly – and more veteran players have unanticipated bad years than good ones. They are what they are.
Small market teams that want to be sustainable contenders have to constantly replenish their rosters with younger players as those that are successful and due large salaries have to be traded to keep their payroll in line with revenues, which the established young players have to take on more responsibility as the next wave of youngsters are broken in. Just the way it works.
Between MASN, BAMTech, and revenue sharing, all teams can spend more than $20M on roster construction. You just just wrote an unnecessary novel on cheap baseball business (thanks for nothing). Tanking is unacceptable. Don’t simp for billionaires— demand better.
schwender;
Did you know that common business practice is to have short, intermediate, and long-term financial planning that sync’s up with how their product is maturing?
Kids that are unable to comprehend issuers on social media always say things like “you wrote a novel”. But you did get in the knock about MLB owners so therefore you fit perfectly in the MLBTR comment section. When do we talk about how many players have become billionaires?….and they hardly had to invest money and take on legal liabilities while working most days to get in the game.
P.S. What I wrote is pretty basic stuff. Go argue about some players isolated stats.
if they had a real owner who would spend on a superstar and some pitching, imagine how good that team would look a year from now
C – Ruschman
1B – Mountcastle
2B – Urias/Westburg
SS – Correa/Turner/Dansby
3B – Henderson
LF – Cowser/Kjerstad
CF – Mullins
RF – Santandar/Hays
I agree but with all the infield prospects and Holliday likely 2 years away and Ortiz tearing up on both sides of the ball a high dollar ss for the next 10 yrs wasnt a need.
A top or rotation pitcher yes… but all had risks… age or frequent injury history or inconsistent results year to year or vs Fera.
Santander will be traded this year unless we’re in a reasonable shot of the division. Too many replacement options not to flip him for a starter
Brixton;
A so-called FA “superstar” is now costing not just a lot of money in the next few years, but even more for years after. What a small market team does by paying the “market rate” set by the large spending teams is to guarantee that a few years down the road when one of their star players is coming up for a larger contract they’ll have to trade him off to keep the payroll in line. Those superstars cost in teams losing good players down the line.
The rule of thumb for small market teams is that at most they can afford 2 and possibly 3 large long-term salaries. That’s it. As for the “But they get more revenue sharing” argument – the reason they get more money in revenue sharing is because the large spending teams go further and further over the pseudo salary cap, thereby causing a ripple effect in salaries that means all other teams will have to pay substantially more for players….. thereby offsetting any additional revenue they receive.
In short – other than the large market teams all others have to keep a flow of youngsters getting onto their ML roster and being productive if they want to continue to contend for years…..even the Yankees have learned how important developing their own young players are (and kudos to them for doing it).
It’s the exact same team we have now but with a SS. The O’s will be fine at SS.
If a position player is to be added—1B is the position I’d bet on. Coby Mayo is the only real guy In the minors with a chance to contribute there.
1B can be filled any number of ways over the next few years. Santander started there in yesterday’s ST game. I hope Westburg, Kjerstad, Norby, Mayo and Vavra all see some time there in 2023. A few of those aren’t “ideal” size, but if the bat plays and they can scoop some…
Honestly, I hope Mayo’s cannon arm ends up in RF if Gunnar is blocking him and Jackson paces him to the bigs.
If you guys are putting Ryan Mountcastle out to pasture there are at least a dozen MLB teams that would be interested.
In context, no, that’s not what we’re doing. Just talking about the future of the position. Mountcastle stays as long as he’s punching his paycheck.
Not at all what I’m doing. But he’s going to hit his arb years shortly and he’s the type who will get expensive v. What he produces on the field if we don’t see a step up.
I think he can be a quality 1B if he can put it all together. This is the year I’m expecting a step. If we don’t see it then you need to start considering the option.
This was maybe not the offseason to go all in on free agents. A promising finish to last season is a step in the right direction but more probably needs to be seen before augmenting the roster with big money players
Smartest front office in baseball, and the best farm system in baseball. Definitely a scary team for a long time to come once all the prospects come up. Exciting young team to watch develop, would love to see them add a little star power when they are ready to win.
Why are they the smartest? How about the Astros, or Dodgers, or Rays? I can name a few others for the short list. So far they’ve done nothing but lose to get great draft picks, which really isn’t all that difficult. Now comes the hard part. Winning.
The fact that this front offices first draft (2019) yielded TWO NUMBER 1 OVERALL prospects as well as top 100 prospects in Stowers and Ortiz indisputably places them in the upper echelon of front offices. You cant try to undersell their accomplishments by attributing it to losing but that’s both intentionally obtuse and blatantly dishonest given the Adley and Gunnar picks producing a first in the history of baseball bounty. They might not be the smartest FO in baseball but given their accomplishments in such a short period of time, any other FO would have to go through the Orioles for that crown.
One draft can be called lucky. It’s too soon to say ‘smartest’. Even the other teams who have done it longer don’t have the claim ‘smartest’ by themselves. The O’s are no longer chumps. They are running the team very smart. Their scouting, drafting, and development have proven themselves to be among the best. Not just for one year or toward the top of the draft. But international signings, incorporating analytics into their development and coaching… Still a ways to go, but they have passed the herd and are chasing down the lead dogs pretty quickly!
The industry would simply disagree with you, is all. It’s not just one draft. It’s one draft – their first draft – in which they accomplished something historic and they have done nothing but impress in their drafts and development since. Are they the unquestioned top dog? No. But is there any front office whose current staff have accomplished more in the same period of time? No, there’s not. So while they don’t have the history to make a claim like the Rays might of having a top notch FO, philosophy, etc. over a decade plus, there’s no FO right now that can possibly claim to be their superior – based on results in the applicable time frame from 2019 to present. You’re simply erring in not giving enough credit when such is plainly due whereas Rocker49 went the other direction and gave them a bit too much.
Huh? Maybe I missed something more nuanced but you just reframed what I said sandwiched between saying the industry disagrees with me and I’m not giving the FO enough credit.
I’ve read from multiple GM’s that the key is knowing your own players. I think Baltimore gave themselves a chance to really see who is part of the next window and who isn’t this year.
If I was an O’s fan, I’d probably be a bit frustrated. But give this team about another half year and the front office will really know what tweaks need to be made, which prospects are going to emerge next year, and they’ll add the pieces as needed.
Judging this off season only, I gave them an F. Lots of talk. Little action. They could have used someone better than Gibson as the replacement for Lyles. They could have added another bullpen arm. I never expected them to be at the top of the market, but I expected an indication to the team that with the prospects arriving, it would not be business as usual. Unfortunately, it was.
This opinion is why the orioles will be successful. The right move is rarely the popular one
They should have made bigger moves to shore up the young talent. This was the off season to do that. D.
My Beloved Flock! We are LOOKING GOOD!!!!! LET’S GO O’S!!!! LET’S GO O’S!!!
Where’s the beef?
Where’s the liftoff
Elias is a filthy liar!!
You forgot: LET’S GO O’S!!!!!
LOL true
I’m pretty annoyed too. I didn’t expect them to go out and get Judge but I thought that either Rodon or Bogaerts were very reasonable expectations. Ending up with very minor upgrades at 4 spots as the totality of their FA activity was a tough pill to swallow. The Angelos family is just trash, plain and simple.
Yes, yes they are
Between the litany of pitchers competing for a rotation spot and the position player heavy farm system, this wasn’t the year to make a big signing. Instead, Elias rightly focused on raising the team’s talent floor. Swapping out Odor and Chirinos for Frazier and McCann alone should significantly improve the bench.
This is a talent evaluation year for the team and none of their acquisitions will block the next wave of talent. Perhaps they could have traded Santander for additional pitching prospects, but trade values tend to be higher around the deadline. Given the team’s point in their rebuild, I gave this offseason a B
I think the fan base is generally underwhelmed by this odd season. The ballast to that being the hope in the youngsters over performing but reality being that they can only go so far with this rotation and a lot of hope.
That having been said, the double barrel pain of a hyper inflated market (thank you, Mr Cohen) combined with the soap opera that is the Angelos family was just too much to power through and sign significant veterans in the off-season. Johnny Boy could use either some bright PR folks or a muzzle. He has diarrhea of the mouth.
Still, all could be forgiven from this off-season if they would simply take a page from Atlanta and lock up some of the young talent to extensions. Adley and Gunnar would be great start. If Grayson throws like we have hoped, an extension announced pre All Star Break for him would be stunningly great news as well.
In a nutshell, the Angelos family needs to spent some of their significant savings over the rebuild. Or this painful rebuild will have to happen again when the talent gains their FA status and we lose them and sink back into the strategy of retread vets in short contracts.
I gave it a D for Disappointing. There were holes – no matter how hopeful you are about ALL the prospects unrealistically panning out the way you dream – that could have been filled this offseason. And that would be an above average starter and someone who could serve as leadoff by getting on base and/or a power hitter. These were…and are still… needed regardless of whether every prospect pans out or not.
Some of this is how Elias framed it because I think most reasonable fans expected them to actually open the wallet and secure significant help from outside of the organization. If he had been more conservative with his take on the upcoming offseason 6 months ago, maybe I give a C-minus.
But we are left with a team with a below average offense and below average rotation hoping they are lucky and their bullpen again is excellent…and hoping every prospect blooms which is just incredibly unrealistic. I’m still having them at 79-83 for my record guess, but could be plus or minus 10 wins based on prospect and young player performances. So much is left to chance and hope, unlike every other team in the division.
I know you have a bearish outlook but the offense could be above average very easily.
Full season of Gunnar & Adley. Frazier is ann upgrade over Odor. Think he’s going to surprise with the shift gone. Mateo won’t hit any less than he did. Possibly Ortiz & or Westburg if so. Mountcastle won’t hit any less than last year.
Stowers is the wildcard. If he hits then this lineup looks real likely to be above avg. to me.
The SP has depth this year. That’s more than we could say for the last few decades. More work has to be done there but I understand why you’d wait after seeing the sticker price this off-season.
Let’s be patient! We finally have a farm built and young players showing promise at the big league level. There’s chips to use to acquire more & more development to come.
To be fair, not EVERY other team in the division…the Red Sox have neither hope nor a chance
danumd87 the Sawx have developed a pattern of falling flat when picked to win, and outperforming expectations when they look bad..and that’s why they’ll be better than last year.
Thinking it’ll be tough to replicate last year’s record. Back end of bullpen seems weaker and banged up. Bautista to closer left hole where Bautista the set up guy was plus the other half of that dynamic duo, Tate, is hurt. Someone needs to step up.
IMO it was smart not to spend a lot this past off season. Bummer Rodriguez and Hall where DL casualties last year. Need to see what they have in both before figuring out where to invest in FA and/or trade(s) … at the plate, on the mound and in the field.
Need: Top-of-the-rotation starters: Well, I wouldn’t call Gibson a top-of-the-rotation guy, nor is Irvin, but it should give some rotation depth and stability. 0/1
Need: A left-handed infield/corner-outfield bat: Frazier gives them this bat but it depends which shows up: 2021 version or the 2022. 1/2
Need: A reliable bullpen arm: Givens fills this role and he’s played in Baltimore before. Solid pick. 2/3
Need: A backup catcher James McCann is as good of a backup as they need. Gives them the veteran experience and leadership for Rutschman. 3/4
Backup First baseman: Not much was done for this but I’m not going to put too much concern to it. 3/5.
Rating C – I feel they really spoiled the offseason by not signing a top starting pitcher.
Which one at which price point?
Rodon & Degrom got a fortune. I imagine it would’ve taken even more to sign in Baltimore.
SP’s were expensive this offseason. I think that hole is eventually filled via trade. I also don’t know that the team knows which SP’s are LT rotation members either. Kremer, Voth, Wells, Hall, Bradish etc. need to be sorted through. I would’ve liked a higher impact starter than Gibson.
That is disappointing but the price tag was exorbitant. I’d rather not be bogged down by a fat deal & harm the team later on. A SP will need to be brought in either at the deadline or next season though. Will be very disappointed if that isn’t done.
@OldY and BStrow; great stuff. Way to bring it fellas. One thought. I hope you’re right about the Givens signing OldY. My gut says he was signed once the FO realized the extent of Tate’s injury. Kind of maybe more reactionary, than part of the off season plan? Fingers crossed I’m wrong here! Let’s Go Os!
BStrowman, do you think the price on pitching is going to come down? With almost nothing on the books, they maybe could have raised the floor for this season while putting in some cost certainty for some coming years by front loading a multi-year contract to a decent mid rotation guy with a little bit of upside. Your young studs are going to make for an increasingly expensive roster if they are going through arbitration at the same time. Unless ownership has a really good plan for major year over year spending increases, it would make sense for them to use the empty ledger this year and next to invest in your future teams. It’s pretty safe to say your core is emerging and it’s going to be a good team. Heck, they played meaningful baseball late into the season last year. It’s going to be a good team sooner than later. Either level salaries with pre-arb extensions to set your future budgets or put some down payments on those future years with front loaded contracts now. I’d have looked at some of the younger free agent pitchers like Walker, Eflin, or Syndergaard or taken a gamble on the upside of Heaney or Senga.
KamKid;
Walker, Eflin, Syndergaard, Heaney or Senga are in free agent territory. While the team would have “cost certainty” for years, it would be at a much larger cost (far more then triple) then having successful young pitchers going through arbitration. Furthermore, with youngsters not on fixed contacts it allows the organization the flexibility of moving on from them if they regress at no cost while having a roster spot open to bring in another pitcher.
One poster described the O’s as a “developmental organization”. That’s what small market teams have to be. They can’t pay retail for more than a few players. They have to make those they have under contract better. Cleveland and Tampa Bay trade off pitchers as they’re approaching free agency. Those pitchers will be too expensive for them to keep. However, they have multiple youngsters on their roster and in the high minors that are getting better; so while no one of them can replace a TOR pitcher their increased cumulative production can.
I would be stunned if even one of the 5 pitchers you mentioned have 3 consecutive good years between now and the end of 2025.
Additionally, they acquired Cole Irvin that has a much lower salary than any of those 5, and he’s under control through 2026.
But they won’t have successful young pitchers going through arbitration at the same time as their position player core. Pitching takes longer and it hasn’t arrived yet. Your sentiment makes sense for the position players. But all teams need pitching. And if they have to pay ‘26 prices on pitchers to supplement the team that is starting to have escalating year over year payrolls that are out of the team’s control, they might run out of budget room then. It seems to me they suggested having some budget room this offseason but didn’t use it. If they are a draft AND develop team, they could could take a free agent mid rotation pitcher who can contribute now because there is no reason this team couldn’t have been in position to be favoured for a wild card this year, as well as develop them into a front of the rotation guy for future years. A budget conscious team needs to think about future budgets every bit as much as the current one. It seems to me this team came in way under budget and that makes it harder for management to “manage up” to ownership to green light the necessary yearly increases. It’s fine if you don’t like any of the pitchers I mention. I wasn’t evaluating other than putting them into the types of categories I thought made sense for these deals (young, upside plays). The other option is just don’t go year to year with your arb guys. Level Mullins’ salary so that he isn’t dirt cheap this year when you have empty budget space and you can reallocate the future savings in that year. It’s not like one or two extensions or free agent signings is going to make the roster so inflexible that they won’t still have options. I think they could have been a little more aggressive about making this roster take form for this year and next without just kicking the can down the road as it seems they did.
I don’t think free agency is how the orioles will fill their rotation hole.
I expect that it comes via trade. There’s too many prospects for too few of slots. Some of them will have to be trade chips.
The Orioles will make trades at the deadline or upcoming offseason. The outfield mix will be crowded and the likes of Hayes and Santander, and a prospect or two may get flipped for pitching once they sort out who they want to move forward with as the core. They are also approaching a crowded infield picture with the talent knocking at the door, so Urias and Mateo could also be dangled. I’d look for Cowser to secure an outfield spot this year once he’s called up, hopefully sometime around May/June. Mayo might be another prospect to grab an infield spot, which, depending on which spot, 3B likely, shifts Gunnar to SS, I’d guess.
The Orioles are in excellent shape moving forward and should be extremely competitive for quite a long time. This is what happens when you hire intelligent baseball people and get out of their way as an owner.
Mayo is a 1B, I believe. He’s not a very good 3B and this Org values that.
He’s 6’5 230lbs already. I think you’ll see him play a lot there this year in the minors. Henderson is very good at 3B and the organization loves Joey Ortiz at SS.
Westburg seems like a trade chip to me. I like Norby a lot at 2B but either one of those 2 could be our 2B LT also.
I wonder if him at first makes Mountcastle expendable? I’m honestly not overwhelmed with him anyway. I feel as though they could get better production there.
Mounty isn’t going to go anywhere unless Mayo forces their hand. Even so, there’s room to have both on the roster.
Mountcastle needs to be better than Last year to be the long term option but he had some bad luck if you look at the advanced numbers. I like him, he’s not an all star, but I believe Mounty can be above average there.
One of Mayo’s biggest traits is a very strong arm. Don’t know about his overall athleticism though and whether he can play outfield or have good range at third base
Did I miss it or was there no mention of John Means coming back from Tommy John surgery?
Even though he’ll miss the start of the season, that’s a potentially significant piece.
They didn’t. It’s tough to count on him but if we make a few small and fair assumptions for argument’s sake, it’s easy to see this rotation outperforming the expectations of casual fans.
Means – a midseason return to form would suddenly give the O’s a legit #2 quality SP and at worst a mid rotation starter who by the time they bring him back injects some much needed quality summer innings into the club.
Grayson – his ST work has already alleviated industry concerns about the downtick post-injury in 2022. He’s the best pitching prospect in the sport. It’s fair to assume he performs at the level of an interesting #3 SP
Bradish/Kremer – both had somewhat surprising and encouraging successes last year and should be penciled into the starting rotation. Bradish has all the makings of a young power arm who should settle in as a mid-rotation SP. Kremer has earned the spot but his lack of swing and miss stuff paired with a relatively high whip make him the least likely of the guys mentioned so far to stick and contribute significantly as an SP. But if we were to assume even minor improvement for Bradish and that Kremer pitches similarly to last year (in terms of quality rather than numbers), then Bradish looks like a 3/4 and Kremer a 4/5 (for whom the team likely has a redundant option in Wells).
Gibson/Irvin – we all know what these guys are. They’re, at best, mid-rotation starters who can give us some unimpressive stability while trying to field a somewhat competitive team as we manage a slew of young and unproven arms. They’re #4 SPs. Every team needs multiples. They’re not going to impress but they’re going to make it easier to absorb the inconsistency of the rest of the guys discussed herein.
Hall – I don’t think he’s going to prove to be a SP but they should give him every opportunity – starting at AAA this year – to prove me wrong. I think his upside is as an SP we never expect more than 6 IP out of but who, especially in a six man rotation, could prove elite over relatively short starts and get piggybacked on by guys like Wells and Voth. Downside is hopefully as an elite reliever. I hope we see glimpses of the former by mid-summer.
Wells/Voth – Organizational depth guys, though I’ve got a weird man-crush on Wells despite him profiling similar as Kremer. If either of these guys can cement themselves as #4 SPs that would be of substantial value to an O’s rotation that I think should be going six deep.
My hope for the mid-season Orioles rotation:
No. 1 Means: Healthy and performing as a competitive #2 quality SP, giving us a chance at least against some #1s which we won’t have otherwise unless the next guy advances quickly…
No. 2 Grayson: O’s SP megaprospect that finally hits, giving the O’s a legit top of the rotation guy for years to come; though even if that happens he likely won’t have the durability to meaningfully contribute in any kind of lengthy postseason.
No. 3 & 4 Irvin/Gibson: Boring veteran #4s that every single team needs and we’ll be happy to have when we’re looking for innings and pen rest.
No. 5 Bradish: My breakout guy. He throws hard and if that 1.40 whip can come down to 1.30, he should be a mid-rotation guy asap. I don’t think he has top of the rotation stuff but he can be a mid-rotation fixture who can go very deep into ballgames.
No. 6 Kremer: Fine. Does the job. If he doesn’t, Wells should be able to perform similarly. Or possibly Hall is ready to go and gives us a chance at some real upside from the back end of the rotation. Or Voth eats innings. I’m going to plan on a solid Kremer, hope for an improved Hall, and take solace in the comfort of the depth provided by Wells and Voth.
I agree with you aside from Voth eating innings. Voth struggles to give you more than 5. In this day and age that’s okay for a #5 starter though.
Bradish is the guy to watch this year for sure.
I think the O’s rotation is more stable and has more upside than most casual fans seems to realize. I’m not saying it’s going to be great but there’s reason for cautious optimism…
Means – a midseason return to form would suddenly give the O’s a legit #2 quality SP and at worst a mid rotation starter who by the time they bring him back injects some much needed quality summer innings into the club.
Grayson – his ST work has already alleviated industry concerns about the downtick post-injury in 2022. He’s the best pitching prospect in the sport. It’s fair to assume he performs at the level of an interesting #3 SP
Bradish/Kremer – both had somewhat surprising and encouraging successes last year and should be penciled into the starting rotation. Bradish has all the makings of a young power arm who should settle in as a mid-rotation SP. Kremer has earned the spot but his lack of swing and miss stuff paired with a relatively high whip make him the least likely of the guys mentioned so far to stick and contribute significantly as an SP. But if we were to assume even minor improvement for Bradish and that Kremer pitches similarly to last year (in terms of quality rather than numbers), then Bradish looks like a 3/4 and Kremer a 4/5 (for whom the team likely has a redundant option in Wells).
Gibson/Irvin – we all know what these guys are. They’re, at best, mid-rotation starters who can give us some unimpressive stability while trying to field a somewhat competitive team as we manage a slew of young and unproven arms. They’re #4 SPs. Every team needs multiples. They’re not going to impress but they’re going to make it easier to absorb the inconsistency of the rest of the guys discussed herein.
Hall – I don’t think he’s going to prove to be a SP but they should give him every opportunity – starting at AAA this year – to prove me wrong. I think his upside is as an SP we never expect more than 6 IP out of but who, especially in a six man rotation, could prove elite over relatively short starts and get piggybacked on by guys like Wells and Voth. Downside is hopefully as an elite reliever. I hope we see glimpses of the former by mid-summer.
Wells/Voth – Organizational depth guys, though I’ve got a weird man-crush on Wells despite him profiling similar as Kremer. If either of these guys can cement themselves as #4 SPs that would be of substantial value to an O’s rotation that I think should be going six deep.
My hope for the mid-season Orioles rotation:
No. 1 Means: Healthy and performing as a competitive #2 quality SP, giving us a chance at least against some #1s which we won’t have otherwise unless the next guy advances quickly…
No. 2 Grayson: O’s SP megaprospect that finally hits, giving the O’s a legit top of the rotation guy for years to come; though even if that happens he likely won’t have the durability to meaningfully contribute in any kind of lengthy postseason.
No. 3 & 4 Irvin/Gibson: Boring veteran #4s that every single team needs and we’ll be happy to have when we’re looking for innings and pen rest.
No. 5 Bradish: My breakout guy. He throws hard and if that 1.40 whip can come down to 1.30, he should be a mid-rotation guy asap. I don’t think he has top of the rotation stuff but he can be a mid-rotation fixture who can go very deep into ballgames.
No. 6 Kremer: Fine. Does the job. If he doesn’t, Wells should be able to perform similarly. Or possibly Hall is ready to go and gives us a chance at some real upside from the back end of the rotation. Or Voth eats innings. I’m going to plan on a solid Kremer, hope for an improved Hall, and take solace in the comfort of the depth provided by Wells and Voth.
What will Grayson’s innings limit be? 120? 140? That won’t get him much past 20-22 starts or so….in other words won’t see him in September
That’s probably realistic for a guy who’s never thrown that many innings. If all goes well, I think a realistic projection would be:
2023: 140 IP
2024: 160+ IP
2025: normal starter innings
But don’t forget that the Orioles have a number of very young, intriguing starters who both need MLB innings and likely have innings limitations so a 6 man rotation is a strong possibility. And in a 6 man rotation 150 IP per pitcher equates to 180 IP in a 5 man so he might very well still be able to contribute late season, if not in full.
Solid 80 win team.
I gave the offseason a D, as starting pitching wasn’t really addressed beyond getting an innings eater or two. Winning Baltimore teams were always known for having great starters, whether from the Palmer/Cuellar/McNally era or the Brown/Mussina/Schilling years.
GRod will be great, but his innings may be limited. Beyond him, the cupboard looks a bit bare. I think Hall looks more like a dominant bullpen piece than a rotation guy. And there is no telling what Means may contribute if/when he is back.
But, having a “D” offseason doesn’t preclude having an “A” for the midseason. Free agent prices jumped, and even with a great Baltimore offer, players will choose destinations they prefer for reasons other than dollars. So the front office can’t really be blamed. They likely recognized that trading is the better path to improve the rotation, hopefully by this summer. Bieber perhaps? Who’s on the wish list?
I think this org will acquire a SP who isn’t pitching at the top of his game.
If you recall, Verlander and Cole weren’t pitching like aces when the stros acquired them. I think they’ll look for traits of guys who are undervalued. Cleveland is great with pitchers. I highly doubt we’d line up in a deal w them. I think we target a guy with a lot of upside who isn’t performing at that level when acquired.
Whether that’s a guy with ace potential or a #2 type. Will be a little easier to make a guess when the season begins and we see how guys are pitching. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Texas fall apart and trade a guy like Jon Gray. I like Mitch Keller from Pittsburgh too. Obv those are below the ace level targets.
I don’t know who but I I bet it won’t be a sticker price acquisition.
Nothing new to add from me really. But just imagine the future if the O’s couldnt afford to extend Rutschman, Rodriguez, Henderson or Holliday because they had big money tied up in a lesser player.
deron867;
Yes, and that lesser player on a long-term contract is older, getting injured as well producing less when healthy, and no team wants to take on his contract in trade.
They did a decent job of shoring up some depth and floor. Especially with how many claims and outrights they managed. It’s marginal stuff, but the margins count. The internal improvements are going to be the biggest factor for this team.