Red Sox left-hander James Paxton suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain during his Spring Training outing yesterday, manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Ian Browne of MLB.com. Since Paxton will be shut down temporarily, it doesn’t appear as though the southpaw will be ready for Opening Day, though Cora is hopeful a larger injury has been averted.
“If we need imaging, we’ll do it. Right now, we don’t feel that way,” Cora said. “He’s going to fall behind a little bit here. But worst case scenario, you know, it’s actually a best case scenario. It doesn’t look that bad.”
A Grade 1 is the least-serious type of strain, so if Paxton did miss only a minimal amount of Grapefruit League prep while recovering, he might be back in action after a 15-day injured list placement and be on track for a mid-April debut. Of course, any type of injury is particularly notable in Paxton’s case given the long list of issues that have sidetracked his career, though the large majority of those past injuries were arm-related.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Paxton has only thrown only 21 2/3 big league innings — none of those with the Red Sox, despite signing with Boston over a year ago. Tommy John surgery was responsible for much of that layoff, but Paxton was also waylaid by a flexor strain in 2020, and then a lat strain set back Paxton’s rehab last season and kept him from getting on the mound whatsoever in 2022.
Paxton is entering the second season of what has turned out to be a two-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox, albeit with a complicated set of steps to reach that total. The deal paid Paxton $6MM in 2022, and he then exercised a $4MM player option for 2023 after the Sox declined a pair of club options that would have paid the southpaw $13MM in both the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Naturally, Paxton’s absence in 2022 made it an easy call for the Red Sox to decline those club options (the team had to decide on both options simultaneously), and likewise it wasn’t a surprise that Paxton opted to lock in that $4MM after a season of such uncertainty.
Paxton’s hamstring strain creates another injury concern for a Red Sox pitching staff that has already run into issues with Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello. Whitlock has been limited to bullpen sessions as he recovers from hip surgery, though Cora told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) yesterday that if Whitlock is indeed not ready to break camp with the Sox, “he’s not going to lose too much time….it’s not because he’s hurt or whatever. It’s just the progression of where we’re at, especially moving around.” Bello was temporarily shut down due to some forearm soreness early in camp, but the young righty has resumed throwing off a mound.
Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Corey Kluber now look like the only pitchers penciled into the Opening Day roster, with Tanner Houck as the logical candidate to step into one of the spots left open if Paxton and Whitlock are absent. However, Boston has a busy April schedule with only two off-days in the month, so a fifth starter will be needed if Paxton or Whitlock don’t make a quick recovery. This could open the door for Josh Winckowski to make some more starts in a fill-in capacity, or the Sox could opt for bullpen games or an opener/bulk pitcher tandem.
Imagine my shock.
Of course Cora would say all these rotation injuries early on don’t matter. Just look at 2019 to see how important spring training is considered to be for getting a team ready in his mind….
It would certainly be odd if a manager didn’t tell the press exactly what he was really thinking.
First time for everything I guess.
Cora didn’t say rotation injuries don’t matter.
GASox – But Bloom was a genius for giving Paxton that convoluted 2-year contract that no other MLB team thought of giving … right?
$10M luxury tax hit last year and $4M this year. Has ANY MLB team ever given that big a 2-year free agent contract to a guy who never ended up throwing a ML pitch for them? We shall soon find out.
Paxton is Canadian for useless
Injuries like this strain the imagination.
Needs bubble wrap around him. A strong breeze will put him on the IL
That rotation is going to require duct tape and zip ties all season. I hope not, not a Sox fan but a Sale fan, but I’m also a realist.
Such a bargain! Could be paying $27 mill for a chronically hurt sourpuss
Well that didn’t take long.
I don’t know how some of these players make it through life. Don’t know how they survive walking out the door of their house without killing themselves.
I’m shocked such a healthy guy has an injury already
I’m shocked he made it as long as he did without one.
Big Maple? More like balsa.
Hey, balsa is a hard wood lol. (It’s true)
TWSS
Paulownia is the second softest/lightest wood behind balsa. It’s also a hardwood. They really messed up the naming of hardwood and softwood by basing it on deciduous and coniferous trees.
Beans – My wife calls me Hardwood every morning, but I digress ….
@beans and Georgia yellow pine is a “hard wood” but is a n the soft family
@FPG She calls me that too!
The Big Hurt was already taken
More like Marla Maples
I vote for Big Willow – he breaks, and, he weeps.
Or whoever is paying him…
Just might be time to hang it up
There it is! The first sign of spring!
Some say it’s the birds chirping, others say the blooming of the forsythia’s, but not we ball fans; we know the true sign of spring is the sound of the shredding ligaments of James Paxton
this team is going to be such a disaster hahaha
Yeah! Which – some consolation – may be deliciously entertaining.
Hahahahaha. Who knew???
Everyone except for Chaim
Mango – That reminds me of the age-old adage that the guy who thinks he’s smarter than everyone else … usually is not.
Can we collectively start calling him Jim Paxton until he reaches the field?
Death and taxes. Add Paxton getting to one of the certainties of life.
No need to overreact. He tweaked a hammy . Happens all the time, no big deal.
SJK – So what you’re saying is it’s just a flesh wound, eh?
Made $14.5 million in 2021-22 and got in only six more games than I.
Awesome! Comment of the Day right there!
Thank you!!!
Paxton is injured?! He never gets hurt!!!
I’m sure Sale and Kluber will both stay healthy though. Red Sox have the most durable rotation of any team in New England…
Honestly, sounds like something a Red Sox fan would say trying to win a debate on why the Sox are the best.
I love Big Mape even more now that he’s absolutely milking the league dry. I mean, he hasn’t made 6 appearances in a season since 2019 and he gets a one year 4 million. Meanwhile a Luke Voit can’t get a major league deal.
He’s made $31 million the last 3 seasons over 7 appearances.
Bananas!
Only reason he got 4.5m this year is bloom signed a bad deal last year giving him $10m for nothing at all, with a player option this year for extra.
With a sane gm it would’ve been minor league deals with incentives both times around
“Only reason he got 4.5m this year is bloom signed a bad deal last year giving him $10m for nothing at all, with a player option this year for extra.”
The deal from last year for 10m included the 4m from this year. If he had walked away at the end of last year, instead of picking up the option, he wouldve been on the books for only 6m. So, its 10M for 2 years.
But, whatever, Im sure you think youre right again.
I’m correct it was a bad signing for too much money.
I’m incorrect in that it was only boston’s option, which was declined, that added to the 10m.
But I’m sure you’ll continue licking chaim’s boots rsmith and insist it was wise.
1oM for both years.
masslive.com/redsox/2022/11/james-paxton-returns-t…
GA won’t care. Some folks are less bothered about being wrong than others are.
Unlike others around here Joe, I own when I have any inaccuracies in a post.
But you’re right that I’m not concerned.
but in this case you didn’t admit you were wrong. You can still think it was a bad signing (which it probably will be) and admit that you were wrong about how much money he made. He clearly didn’t make 10 million last year. It was 6. 10 was the total take.
Acell, your reading comprehension is sorely lacking. Only in your bloom-tained world does the following:
“I’m incorrect in that it was only boston’s option, which was declined, that added to the 10m”
somehow not count as admitting to having an inaccurate fact. Perhaps it was the use of a large word like ‘incorrect’ that threw you off? Hint, ‘incorrect’ is a synonym for wrong. Oops, synonym may trip you up as well. Let’s just leave it at incorrect is a different word meaning wrong. Now maybe you get it.
Go read the above again, and, admit you were wrong and just tried (and failed) to attack me based on my dislike of bloom’s move
ha! I love how you’re questioning people’s reading comprehension as means to just getting out of admitting you made a mistake. He might end up with 10 million for nothing. So far it’s only been 6. I guess one has to question reading comprehension is when simple math is something that’s too complicated for you.
I see you are still not admitting you were wrong acell.
I clarified my point. You’ve steadfastly refused to do the same.
Nothing to clarify. Prior to you even entering the thread I already admitted the incorrect portion, of a post made when this version of the article had not yet included the contract details. You know how they go back and add to articles here? Yep.
So, no, it wasn’t a mistake in math. I had no figures in front of me. I recalled paxton being a 10m mistake previously, and my error was that the money that would’ve added to that was the declined boston option alone, not the player option. But, that error was previously acknowledged, not so with your baseless attack
I missed that portion of the exchange then. My pointing it out was not baseless as it was based on your initial post. My mistake if you admitted it then.
No point in arguing with know-it-all GAsoxfan. He’s one of those who always has to get the last word in.
I don’t mind deconstructing his arguments.
“I’m incorrect in that it was only boston’s option, which was declined, that added to the 10m”
=====================
You could’ve just admitted you were wrong without a convoluted explanation.
syco – It’s $14M combined in luxury tax salary, the only type of salary that matters.
spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2022/
Not to Mrs Paxton I imagine
syco – Very true!
Fever: Good point about the luxury tax.
Do you nitwits honestly care whether the other nitwit admits a mistake? Why? It’s interesting to see anonymous internet commenters get pissy with each other.
apparently you cared enough to comment as well…
I love you, and all God’s children.
Fever Pitch Guy2 days ago
syco – It’s $14M combined in luxury tax salary,
=====================
Per Cots:
“James Paxton lhp
1 year/$10M (2022), plus 2023-24 options
1 year/$10M (2022), plus 2023 or 2023-24 options
signed by Boston as a free agent 11/30/21
22:$6M, 23:$4M player option”
It is the $6M + $4M that plays.
If Paxton was a FA and pitched a full season last year with the results Voit had in they would both be sitting in a living room drinking beer reminiscing about how great 2019 was.
Voits statline last season is a bit deceptive. He actually hit right handlers well above league average. 116wrc+ vs rhp. But, he absolutely tanked against lefties, and he’s not a good defensively player. I honestly thought with the universal DH that he would certainly get a major league deal.
*right handers
*defensive player
I think the problem with Voit as a DH is twofold:
1) much of the league views the dh slot as a rotational position for bad contracts, aging players, and just general rest for players.
2) the modern DH needs to do two of three things: hit righties, hit lefties, or have some positional depth value somewhere by having adequate defense.
To eat a roster spot, maybe you consider a dh with a platoon split, but if so, he really needs to be servicable depth out on the field.
It’s hard to justify a guy who only hits one handed pitching and cannot play defense.
This is why it would make more sense to replace human players with robots. They don’t get injured and if broken, the other robots can fix them.
But the robot players would eventually form an alliance with the future robot umpires and take over the world.
We need to keep those entities away from each other.
Cylons can’t be trusted and trolls need to be ignored.
When we had James and Mitch Haniger here in Seattle, my buddies and I would make friendly wagers as to who would get hurt first. Both such great players when healthy. I believe Mitch is ok with Frisco so far. Then we had Kyle Lewis. Man, injuries suck.
I just won money off a similar 3 way bet of sale, kluber, and paxton.
His contract isn’t much for the year but it amazes me sometimes how much teams will offer a injured pitcher who is recently removed from being good hoping they can be good again only to have them get hurt. This is potentially a non issue and if he comes back and puts up decent numbers it can still be a win for the Red Sox. If he gives them a sub 4 ERA even for half this year is worth roughly what they paid him the last 2 years. I could also see this turning into them flushing 14 million down the drain. I liked him as a Mariner and was hopeful when they got him back only to have him go down after 1 inning. Hopefully this isn’t a Rich Harden type situaton and he can get a few more years in as a good pitcher.
I’m sure they wouldn’t view half a year as a win but at this point I hope they don’t expect more than that and he would have to be more like a 3.5 ERA if only half a season to make up for last year money wise the more I think about it.
Canadian Carl Pavano
Don’t need no Wacha?
You like the 4 year/$26M deal Wacha signed?
Less than 7 mil per year? Yeah I like that deal
For 4 years?
It’s so cheap you can eat part of the backend if you get 2 good years out of it.
I like the 4 years.
I don’t think being ok with eating money is a good plan.
It is if you get the overall value. If I get 30m in production, pay 26m for it, and get to spread out payments that act like a deferred salary and lower my CBT? I’m fine with the idea of “eating money” by releasing the guy while control remains.
Two scenarios:
2y/26m deal. Paid 4m signing, 4m each year, then a pair of 7m payments deferred. Higher cbt hit.
4/26m deal. Paid 4m signing, 5.5m each year. Lower CBT hit. In year 3 player is ineffective, and I cut him.
No downside, only upside if you get extra control you may or may not want while lowering team cbt payroll.
With the wacha deal there is only 1 question: can you get or exceed 26m in production over 4 years?
This Michael Wacha who will turn 31 shortly. His ERA the last 4 years was 4.76, 6.62, 5.05 and 3.32. The outlook for the next 4 years is not good.
Compare that 4/26m to what the going rate for free agent SP has been?
If he was a 3.00 pitcher the years would double and the salary would go 3-4x higher per year. For a guy whose abilities are probably in the lower 4s era? That’s a good back end value. Remember the defenses behind him some of those years.
Would you be championing this deal if the sox had signed it? I think the paxton deal was stupid at the time (and even now hamstring injury or not) but this one (deferred money extended years etc). is even more egregious. Wacha wildly over performed last year and there’s as much of a guarantee of him having lower 4s era as paxton at this point and arguable the same health risks.
Yes, I would.
Paxton has been a much bigger health risk than wacha.
How many innings has paxton pitched in the last 3 years? 21.2 in 2020, 2021, 2022 combined.
How many innings has wacha pitched in the last 3 years? 286.0 in 2020, 2021, 2022 combined.
You’re ignoring the fact it’s a 6.5m/yr deal. How much starting pitching does 6.5m buy? It’s not an ace were talking about here. For that cheap, with that many years, there is value. Low 4s is fine for the money, and a good deal for a free agent.
Even JoeBrady liked Perez at 2/11 and contract values have gone up since then. And he was a high 4s era, and was 5s at the time the deal was signed.
Wacha’s FIP the last 4 years was 5.61, 5.25, 4.47 and 4.14. I’m glad the Red Sox did not sign him. The outlook does not look good.
By that logic, I would think you would be ok with a 2 year/$10M gamble on Paxton.
I agree that the outlook for the red sox is bad with chaims moves regardless of whether they signed wacha or not.
Still, I’d have preferred they brought wacha back for long term stability reasons. 26/4 is cheap for the back of your rotation, and, those FIP all trend in a positive direction.
1 more year of 34/35 year old sale, plus 1 yr of pivetta, a 37/38 yr old kluber who is losing fb speed, 35 year old paxton?
Nah.
Actually his FIP shows he is improving and the last one was league average. A #3 starter for $6.5 million AAV?
It is also worth noting that the Wacha deal is 1 year $7.5 million with convoluted team and player options the next 3 years.
Problem with paxton is 3 fold: age, health, and age.
Hes old. 35 isnt when you want to be trying a comeback having been NOTHING for 3 seasons.
If you asked me, minor league invite last season with incentives? OK. Or a 1m base salary with same? OK.
You don’t pay a 35 yr old who missed 3 straight years and was always a health problem even before that 2/10.
Yes. Assuming Wacha exercises the player options, he will get $26M over 4 years.
Wacha has missed a decent amount of time in the past several years not as much as paxton but a a lot so he’s hardly a guarantee for health. Not only that outside of last year he hasn’t really produced over the past four seasons.
Describing Wacha as a stabilizing force is a mischaracterization for any rotation.
I’m not ignoring that it’s a 6.5 million and that 6 million isn’t a whole lot. however you’re ignoring the fact that until last year his ERA hasn’t been close to the low fours since 2018 when again he missed half the year. You’re projecting that ERA solely off his FIP last year which I’m skeptical he’ll be able to repeat with a full season of health.
projecting him as a number 3 starter is a stretch either due to perforce durability or both.
7 mil for a decent starting pitcher is damn good in this market. Even for 4 years
Stability can be looked at different ways. The one thing we can probably agree on is the idea of a 200 IP starter is the exception rather than rule due to how most managers are quick with the hook, and, it’s become the age of throwers rather than pitchers.
Your average guy sits 150-175ip. A back of rotation type may be the 125-150ip guy.
When I think stability in the rotation, more than anything with this club, I’m thinking years with the club holding down a slot rather than the other idea of stability – took the ball 32 starts a year, 6+ ip every time.
If I had a 31 year old giving me 120+ip, of sub 4.5x fip, under $7m, I’ll take that every season. I might take 2 of them, depending what was on the farm I wanted to audition for the 3/4 slots. Counting on a guy for 26 starts and mixing in a farmland to break them into mlb? Might be just about right.
all in the suit… care to bet that Wacha pitches more innings in 2023 than Paxton?? The idiotiic signing of him last year by Bloom put the Sox over the cap.
This is the problem with Chaim Bloom and all his 1-2 year signings of guys like Paxton, Kluber, etc.
well even by that standard I’m not convinced that Wacha can provide a sub 4.5 FIP when he hasn’t consistently done over the past 4-5 years. Regardless a quick hook of only getting 5 innings over say 30 starts is 150 innings. 170 is above average so that’s what your baseline for an average should be not that wide range you’re suggesting.
either way having to pay multiple starters over the age of 30 that only produce those numbers you mentioned isn’t a recipe for success neither is expecting them to hold up for even 26 starts.
No. I don’t bet on these things. Paxton was a 2 year gamble a large market team could afford. Wacha is also a gamble, but 4 years is too many. If the Red Sox were under the cap, you would probably call them cheap.
Baby steps acell.
Long term I’d agree with you.
But, look at the sox pipeline. Once they gave away ward and politi for free it was a small hit. Then youve got the ages of sale 34 in ’23, 35 in 24, with injury issues, then FA. Paxton, with injury issues, is 35, then FA. Kluber is 37, option for 38 in 24, and has injury issues. The back of their pen is over 37 the next 2 years.
Ward may be nothing more than a pen piece. Houck needs another pitch, hasn’t been able to get one. He is currently a pen piece or spot starter. Whitlock isn’t as good thus far from the rotation. He may be a wacha/pivetta quality of results guy.
You can’t go into every offseason needing 4 or 5 front line starters. It won’t work. But, locking in one spot, cheaply, in a mid to low 4s or better? Until there’s some stability in the rotation of guys who aren’t end-of-career, you need to lock in a known quality you hope has upside rather than hope to get what you want. No guarantee 4 guys will come on deals you can afford every offseason and be worthwhile.
Suit – which is better, under the cap, but spent cheap? or near the cap, and spent foolish?
You and Randy will criticize the Red Sox whatever they do.
A lot of your argument could apply to paxton though and frankly Wacha is a decent sized unknown. He wasn’t healthy last year and teams haven’t really been able to count on him to be healthy and/or effective outside of last and the early part of his career. I place a lot more weight in what a player has done over their career more than one good/heathy season.
Your argument might hold up if Wacha was a “known quantity” (by this I believe you mean giving you everything you said above) but he’s hardly done that over the course of his career and only once in the past 4 years.
As for the pipeline you’ve left out Bello from the conversation and Mata (Mata is still very much an unknown I’ll concede but he isn’t nothing). There are also other players very similar to both Ward and Politi (Durban Feltman for one) that could be bullpen pieces same for a Winkowski. I’m perfectly comfortable giving guys over 37 only two years. I would expect that players like Broadway, Houck, and others will be ready to assume stronger roles in the pen by then.
Not for nothing but bringing up Ward and Politi is bordering on whataboutsim and just a way to shift focus off the broader point. (and as I have said not worth losing your mind over either of them being gone).
Ok two things. Paxton is 34 and will pitch the entire season at 34 (his birthday is in November). Wacha is 31 and will turn 32 in July. this is paxton’s age 34 season and Wacha’s age 32 season.
Randy – In all fairness to Bloom, there were SEVERAL idiotic acquisitions that Bloom made which contributed to the team going over the LTS threshold.
They were only $6M over.
JBJ – $12M
Diekman – $2.25M
Robles – $2.25M
Davis – $600K
Story – $23.3M
Cordero – $600K
Brasier – $1.4M
AITSTYW = Come on. Eating money is a way of life for Bloom!! That’s all he does.
So think about what you are saying:
Paying Paxton $14MM for 2 years and getting next to no starts is better than paying Wacha $6.5MM for 4 years and getting close to 100 starts?
I’ll take the Wacha deal over the Paxton deal any day!!
Fever – Remember, it was $6MM over a CAP that was raised by $20MM so based on the previous year, that’s $26MM.
That’s a front line starter cost!!! But we didn’t get a single all-star qualify player. The $26MM was actually spent on 5 bad players and 22 that came in the door and circled back out the door within 3 months!!
So much wasted money, so much lost talent, so much Bloom I could puke!!
suit – Paxton was a gamble that a team looking to stay under the LTS threshold could NOT afford, and yet Bloom did it.
Look at the impact it had on the team, in terms of draft picks and free agent signings.
The two picks the Red Sox will receive for Bogaerts and Eovaldi will fall after the fourth round, likely at picks Nos. 133 and 134. If they had not exceeded the threshold, those picks would have come after Competitive Balance Round B, likely at picks No. 70 and 71. So going over the threshold dropped the compensation picks more than 60 spots and cost the Red Sox about $1 million in bonus pool money for this year’s draft.
Also, the Sox would have had to give up their second- and fifth-highest selections in the draft as well as $1 million from their international free agency bonus pool to sign a qualified free agent. This undoubtedly dissuaded the club from pursuing top free agents like Carlos Rodón, Chris Bassitt and Willson Contreras this winter.
Not to mention the fact that if they go over the threshold this year too, it would be a two-time-offender label placed on them.
Going over the threshold last year was one of the dumbest screwups I’ve seen in my lifetime.
Pulled – I find it hilarious that even with Bloom’s extreme reliance on analytics, he still can’t keep track of payroll.
One of my favorite Bloom screwups for 2023 is having $1.75M go against the tax threshold for Eric Freakin’ Hosmer!!
Great job Mr. Bloom, money well wasted!
Fever: I was thinking it was a big screw up to have picks 133 and 134 instead of 70 and 71, but then I thought about the players the Red Sox got in the last two drafts at pick 40 (Jud Fabian) and 41 (Cutter Coffey). They are both far from a sure thing and are very much lottery tickets. If that was the case at picks 40 and 41, I think there is not a whole lot of difference between having picks 133 and 134 instead of 70 and 71. Actually, I think after the first 20-30 picks, they are all lottery tickets. It hurts a bit, but I don’t think it is an epic failure.
suit – Fair enough, but the other penalties certainly had an impact.
Fever: Agreed. Strangely, the Red Sox have only spent about $3M of their $4.6M international signing bonus pool so far. Not sure what happened. They were supposed to pay a large bonus to a prospect named Tony Ruiz, but he wound up signing with the Royals.
Suit – they also lost 500k in intl money this year because of story, and, there’s bonus pool money losses, BIG ones, with those two picks dropping about 70 spots each
AITSTYW – We don’t often agree but your point about how worthless the draft picks are when you go over the spending limit is SO VALID!!
Go back and look at our success rate at 1st round picks, let alone much later picks and you’ll see that the cost of losing a draft pick is like forgetting a lotto ticket on the counter at your local gas station. Sure it MIGHT be a winner but the odds are against it.
Boston has gone over the CAP several times since DD arrived and each time it was due to RETAINED PAYROLL. The Retained Payroll when added to the ACTIVE payroll pushed the total over the CAP and people blamed DD not the owners and previous GM. That was inaccurate if you understand how payroll is constructed. .
2022 marked the first time BOSTON has exceed the CAP (which was $20MM higher than the year before unlike most years when it’s $1MM higher) and all the RETAINED PAYROLL was due to the current GM not the previous GM. And all that spending brought ZERO all-stars to the team.
2019 was DD’s last year. His ACTIVE roster cost $203MM. The 2022 5th place team had a payroll $30MM higher and less talent. There is no clearer evidence that Bloom has failed and never was qualified to get the Boston job. He’s Lee Harvey Oswald in this scenario. A patsy set-up to remove Mookie and Price. That’s all. Why he kept going and removed the rest of the Championship team is beyond my comprehension unless the Yankees were paying him a stipend to ruin the Red Sox’s chances for a decade. Otherwise, it makes absolutely NO SENSE what Bloom has done.
There has been no winning, there doesn’t appear to be winning in the near future, the farm system is rated higher thanks to early draft picks caused by failure and the rest of the farm system is weaker than when Bloom arrived in Boston. The owners have supported Bloom’s naive plan for success and now it’s time to declare it a disaster area and clean house COMPLETELY. Yep, get a new GM and let him replace everyone with his people because they can’t be any worse than the ones Bloom brought to Boston.
The analytics have been terrible. The farm system player development has been terrible. The starting line-ups have been terrible. The pitching choices have been terrible. 3 unquestionable disaster years with a lone cudo to the 2018 champs who carried the 2021 team to more wins than ANYONE could have ever expected. That’s not a credit to Bloom!!.
Now the team is at the bottom of the barrel and needs to change directions so a NEW GM and his people are critical to turning things around. The only thing Bloom can do at this point is make things worse. So stop the spending, admit the team needs a change and make it.
Fever Pitch Guy15 hours ago
One of my favorite Bloom screwups for 2023 is having $1.75M go against the tax threshold for Eric Freakin’ Hosmer!!
=========================
Per MLB-R:
“the cash considerations are actually about $44MM, with the Padres paying down the remainder of Hosmer’s contract, apart from the league minimum.”
Per Joe B, the league minium for 2 months was maybe ~ $225k, not $1.75M.
But just for wun, how about showing everyone your calculations.
PAB: Regarding the draft, I think they need to hit on the 1st round pick and after that it is pretty much lottery tickets.
GA: It looks like they will lose about $800K in draft bonus pool money from the picks falling (based on last year’s slot values). Might be a problem if they try to sign someone they need to talk out of going to college.
Joe – I have no idea who “wun” is.
And I didn’t need to calculate myself, Spotrac did it for me.
spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/
Now look under 2023 Retained Salaries.
See Hosmer’s name? That Base Salary of $720K is the ML minimum.
And if you look further to the right, you’ll see $1.75M Lux Tax Salary.
Now let’s see your patented disappearing act instead of apologizing for once again falsely accusing me of being wrong.
Now look under 2023 Retained Salaries.
================================
Okay, now go to Cots. He’s not even listed.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8–xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900
After that, go Cots for the Cubs, and he is listed for the league minimum of $720,000. As far as I know, we aren’t on the hook for a single dollar, let alone $1.75M. FWIW, all these sites make mistakes. Otherwise, all these sites would be identical, and you would only need one site.
However, just like when KD made that ludicrous claim that we picked up $2M of Robles salary, even though the year was 2/3rds over, and MN gave us $500k, I’ll give you a chance to make a friendly wager on whether your right or not.
But just for disclosure purposes, yo9u have virtually no chance, and you know it.
GASoxFan
Even JoeBrady liked Perez at 2/11
================================
Too many folks don’t understand the role of #4/5 pitchers. Way too many people thought the results were bad. He had an ERA+ of 102. At $5.5M/year, I will buy two of those every year, forever. It would be nice if we were Houston, and produced one of these guys every year, but since are not, buying league-average performance is good business.
Starting pitchers averaged 94.1 IP last season. That is just the innings pitched after taking the ball to begin the game, not any innings they also pitched as a reliever.
There were only 60 pitchers that had 150 or more IP. Only 45 had the 160 innings that it takes to be considered have a qualifying number of innings.
A baker’s dozen of those 45 had an ERA above league average.
Wacha had an above average number of IP 4 seasons in a row, better than average ERA last season, a better than average FIP last season, and overall numbers that are trending better.
Paxton? Well. None of the above. The last time he did was 2019. He has had 21.2 IP in 2020-2022 total. He is 34 now.
It’s Wacha’s age 31 season. He doesn’t turn 32 until after the midway point in the season in terms of number of games. That is how season age is determined.
Suit, just because he is also terrible at the draft does not mean signing Paxton and going over the CBT were not stupid decisions on Bloom’s part.
Im so glad FPG has me on block.
Or over the CBT and in last place?
“Now let’s see your patented disappearing act”
========================
Once again, the irony is thick.
Canadian Idle
There are good reasons why a Scott Boras client would exercise a player option for only $4 million to stay with a team coming off a last-place finish.
But, Paxton has incentives kicking in at every 1/3 inning pitched.
Roob…. Love the humor… good stuff..
That was funny, I think I woke up my housemates…cheers. Appreciate the humor.
Okay, who said March 4th? Give that man a cigar!
You spelled Fragile Paxton wrong. Idk how you were so off with that J A M E S nonsense.
So, question whether the sox should be concerned overall about the number of guys going down with hamstring issues so early in the season.
Is there a bigger issue with their offseason regimen, players buying into the offseason regimen, or their training staff?
I don’t think any other team is having so many hamstring issues on numerous guys so close to the start of ST
Who are the hamstring injuries?
Wong and Paxton in back to back days.
Wong, 3rd appearance, 5 AB, down.
Paxton, 1st appearance, 5/3 innings, down.
Two grade one hamstring injuries out of his many players in camp? And you think this is more than any other team?
Name another team that had 2 of their 26 man projected starters go down with hamstring injuries in their first 3 games.
The cubs lost Suzuki to an oblique strain same with the rays and Glasnow. I’d argue those injuries even though it was separate teams are way more detrimental to their teams respectively then the most minor of hamstring injuries.
two players isn’t a large sample size at all.
None of these examples (especially the two from the sox) are any indication of some type of problem with players buying into off season training etc.
Yes small sample size is right.
You’re talking more nothing-burgers. Vlad Guerrero is limping, Montas likely out for the year, Glasnow, Kitteridge and Walls nicked up.
This is why they have Spring Training.
Hammerin – Give it a few days and lets see how quickly the sample size grows. It may be a tip of an iceberg or just a coincidence that the only two hamstring pulls happened on back to back days to start Spring Training in the warm weather in Florida not the cold weather in Boston.
Do they have a real conditioning coach or is a relative of one of the front office guys? Remember, they hired an unqualified GM and a completely unqualified and notorious Manager. Would it be a stretch to think they might have hired an unqualified conditioning coach?
The other point is these weren’t minor league deals on ST invite only guys…
These were guys who were supposed to be opening day 26 man starters. The major league trainers were supposed to be giving instructions for offseason conditioning, and, checking in on player progress/buy-in after a couple years ago when some guys ignored their offseason regimens… can’t really who, I want to say maybe Thornburg? And a position player? Not sure. Sticks in my mind though.
Clearly they weren’t prepared to start playing when they got there though
Pulled – we didn’t have to wait long. Another day, another 40man roster player down with a hamstring injury (abreu).
Nope, no issue here. 3 days, 3 down. It’s only 8% of your 40man down with the same injury. Can’t possibly be anything wrong at a team level.
I’d suspect (hope) they’re addressing it as we speak though and the hammy injuries should slow
GASoxFan1 day ago
Clearly they weren’t prepared to start playing when they got there though
=========================
I’m not sure what you’re try to message here. That players don’t get injured? Every year, for millennia, guys get injured in ST.
it’s a sign of overall player fragility that every fan i know (including me) thinks their team’s training staff is incompetent
In other news the sun rose in the east and will once again set in the west…
Can we bring back Bronson Arroyo?? He’s 72 but he’ll show up…
Bill Lee is still looking for a job.
How bout my namesake EL TIANTE!!!
What a great, fun-to-watch, and underrated player El Tiante was! Could be a Hall of Famer, too. He’s definitely better than a lot of pitchers who are inducted.
How do you say glass in Spanish?
H..Hank… so true… every one knows of Bob Gibson in 68.. but few know of Luis. In 68.. damn good….
oimtiant – Who did, as a kid, mimic his wind-up when pitching the whiffle ball in the back yard!!
The Paxton news is NOT a surprise. If something happens to Sale that won’t be a surprise either. This just shows how the rotation needs to be
1 – Sale
2 – Paxton
3 = Kluber
4 – Houck
5 – PIvetta
6 – Bello
7 – Whitlock
With Whitlock and Bello slotted as the Sale/Paxton back-ups.
I would pitch both Whitlock and Bello in AAA to start the year to stretch out their innings because we all know at least 2 SPs will get hurt before the end of April.
Bloom… hence my moniker… the first three letters olm.. the grade school I went to in Cicero where yup you got it I would pitch doing my best Luis impression….
olmtiant – hahahaha outstanding!! I had a guy on one of my teams do his Tiant impression during a little league game and they called a balk on his hesitation!! But it was worth it.
What’s Oil Can Boyd up to these days…
Rsox – I was just thinking about Oil Can! Saw him pitch in Brockton at Age 54.
in one of ron darling’s books he revealed that as boyd was warming up before game 3 of the 1986 WS dykstra stood in the on-deck circle screaming racial obscenities at him and apparently it got into his head
No!!! Not Lenny…. He seems like such a nice , loving , wouldn’t do anything to hurt anyone let alone their feeling’s kind of guy… ( you’ll need a chainsaw to cut through my sarcasm)
The Can!!! Man was he fun to watch!!!
No one gets nicknames like “Oil Can” anymore. I don’t even know what it precisely means; but it sounds cool.
ignorant – Where he comes from they call beer “oil” … and despite his slenderness he was able to drink a lot of it.
But according to him, oil is what they called whiskey and he would drink it out of an oil can in a shed … at age 7!
So two versions, probably both somewhat true.
So it begins for the Big Balsa.
14 mill and not one inning, another brilliant move by bloom
Damn!! There goes the playoffs. Lol
Imagine giving someone like James Paxton those type of player options lmao. Such a terrible signing.
Bello and Whitlock could still be ready for Opening Day. Or Whitlock in particular could miss the first week but be ready by the time they need the 5th starter (3rd week of season) though they could also opt to give everyone that extra day and go with 5 out of the gate given the injury or workload concerns around them.
Jeff – You don’t think they need a 5th starter until the 3rd week of the season?
What year are you looking at?
The first six days of April they play every day.
Then they play 19 straight days from April 8th-26th.
If anything they may even go with a 6-man rotation to start the season.
Hmmm. Where did all the Bloom apologist go in this thread? They seem more rare than a good signing by Bloom here HAH!
DBH1969 – Post of the DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! hahahahaha
Thanks Pulled, but I already I handed that award out to baseballteam this morning 🙁
Not good but honestly, anything we get out of Paxton is a plus.
Peddy = Maybe. We still don’t know if he can pitch. He may be a wasted roster spot that cost $14MM over two years.
I hope he pitches and pitches well but we really don’t know at this point.
That’s why I said it’s a plus. You guys complain we don’t spend money then you say we waste money when we spend. 14 million over 2 years is not a bad gamble. Comes off the books after this year. I’m glad we took the risk whether it pans out or not.
By the way, the math above says 10 million, unless I read it wrong. 4 million this year? Not a bad gamble IMO
Peddy – We spent $10MM for no pitches thrown so sure $4MM seems like a discount but if he throws no pitches again, was it a good risk? He hasn’t been good in many years.
Let me ask you…. Alex Reyes was non-tendered by the Cardinals in December. Wouldn’t you rather have seen money ($1.1MM) or a guy like him than a washed up never great SP like Paxton? If he ends up being good you have a young stud, if he doesn’t you only waste $1.1MM not $14MM over two years on an old guy?
To me, Reyes is a smart gamble. Paxton was Bloom trying to chase Rainbows. At least chase a Rainbow that has upside!!
There were so many FAs this off season that had so much more upside that wasting money on guys like Paxton, Hernandez ($10MM), Yoshida ($18MM), Duvall ($7MM), Story ($23.3MM to be a stand-in for Bogey who was far better and could have been extended for just a few million more per year), Barnes and Hosmer (who got cut at a good price).
Bad risks and dumb decisions. That’s Bloom’s epithet!!.
I see your point but it’s not my money. It might be spent stupidly but it’s not like it’s over 8 years. We are talking about a one year deal. We have the money, he’s had success in the past, so it COULD be low risk and high reward.
If it doesn’t pan out, it doesn’t hurt us substantially. Bloom has made other worse decisions that have affected us more than this, believe me.
Of course, we have to see what Paxton accomplishes or does not accomplish for this to weigh anything of matter.
“We spent $10MM for no pitches thrown”
But, they also spent 7M on Wacha last year, and he definitely paid off. Red Sox signed three wild cards last year (Wacha, Paxton, Hill) to complete their rotation. I dont think for a second anyone assumed that EVERY pitcher was going to produce. Considering the group as a whole turned out a plus for the Red Sox.
Pulling Paxton out of that equation, and looking at his cost under a microscope, while ignoring the production of the other two is disingenuous at best.
The song goes: ‘2 out 3 aint bad’ not ‘2 out 3 makes you a terrible GM’.
(Now you can tell how the song is about love and not baseball players)
But, they also spent 7M on Wacha last year,
=========================
The haters only count the guys that didn’t work out.
Red Sox have the best record of any club in ST. The games dont mean much, but several mystery men (Dalbec, Valdez, Tapia) are putting up some nice numbers. Im looking foward to see them in games that count.
If they had the worst record of any team in ST, bet we’d here it over, and over again.
rsmith – Spring training can be considered a preview but please dig deeper into the numbers. I’ve been watching the opponents line-ups and they have been giving their best players the day off against the Red Sox. That skews the results significantly.
Lets see how they do when both team use their normal starters and normal starting pitchers. Then you will see a true preview of the season.
I’m a huge Dalbec fan and he’s done this before. His two great half seasons have both happened after July 1 so if he could come out of the gate flying it’s still likely Cora will sit him because he never makes the right call when it comes to line-ups or pitching changes.
If they had the worst record people would say I told you so. You are right! Now they have to wait until the end of April to say it. Either way, this is 65 to 75 win team based on talent. They could get extremely lucky like in 2021 when the championship guys carried them far beyond most predictions but those championship guys are all gone except for Devers.
To me, Tapia is a guy to watch. He probably makes sense as the lead off hitter instead of Kiki. Yoshida is ideal for the 2 hole with Devers in the 3 hole but again, Cora isn’t smart enough to set the line-up in a way that makes sense. He’s going to leave Devers in the 2 hole and limit his RBIs and the impact of his bat. The best OBP guys should be batting in front of him.
rsmith – The wasted money that I’m talking about is for over pays. Wacha did far better than expected which is why Bloom did what he did. I think he used the regress theory on Renfroe too. He took the win and didn’t double down. Hill is simply too risky but was the 2022 version of Martin Perez. Inexpensive with upside. You need two guys like HIll to fill the innings for one pitching slot so if you double his cost, Hill was expensive for what he provided.
So 1 out 3 isn’t good. No song but it’s true. When you consider the opportunity cost of those three, it was a bad risk. $10MM, $7MM and $5MM totaled $22MM spent on three risky pitchers. Who could they have gotten instead for $22MM?
Longer term solutions (mulit-year contracts)
1 – Robbie Ray signed for $23MM for 5 years
2 – Gausman signed for $22MM for 5 years
3 – Verlander signed for $25MM for 2 years
4 – Rodon signed for $22MM for 2 years
Personally, I would rather have had any of the four deals than the three guys we got. That way in 2024 we would have had Sale, one of these guys, Houck, Pivetta, Bello and the other excellent young pitchers we have.
The same thing happened at the hitting positions:
We spent $23.3MM for 5 years for a SS knowing Blooms biggest hope for the future was going to arrive in Boston in 2024 or 2025 (Mayer). That makes no sense. If he was a stop gap solution give him a shorter contract.
Who could we have gotten for the $23.3MM in the 2022 Free Agent market to fill a REAL hole?
1 – Starling Marte $19.5MM for 4 years (huge OF fix)
2 – Marcus Semien $25MM for 7 years (far better choice than Story)
3 – Freddie Freeman $27MM for 6 years
Freddie is a perennial all-star for just $3.7MM per year more!!
Semien was available back to back years at a reasonable price and Bloom never showed interest that was publicized. He was a steal for Texas. Marte was a steal for NY Mets. Think about the outfield with Marte in CF rather than Kiki. HUGE step up. Hits 75 points higher than Kiki.
So rather than 3 yuck guys for $22MM spend the money on one stud. Then, make sure you pick the best available stud that fits a big need like the OF with Marte, the upgrade to Semien from Story or the 1B problem solver with Freeman. Devers and Freeman hitting back to back with Bogaerts still in Boston would have put us in competition for the Division Title.
Instead, we have slugs like Yoshida, Duvall, Hernandez leading the charge.
All this shows just how bad Bloom is at Free Agency acquisitions.
Bloom believes multiple bad players is better than one all-star player. There is a huge problem in that thinking as we will see in spades in April.
Waaaaay too many paragraphs.
The standard is WAR for judging Free Agents on Return On Investment:
$22M for 3 players and you get 4.2WAR in return is a STEAL!
*Also a 2nd FREE year of Paxton, which you seem to have forgotten about.
Those 3 have positive value, to deny that shows your bias.
Rsmith – I’m sure we’re going to agree to disagree here, but, to me war is of limited usefulness for the following reasons:
1) it’s only good for comparing the production of players who played the exact same position because of its positional bias weighting; and,
2) it’s a bad metric for contract value because the ‘replacement’ level player referenced and tied to it all isn’t one of league average, it is one that will result in a .320 winning percentage, or in other terms, a 52-110 record for the season.
To put in other terms, the premise of ‘war’ even if we round DOWNWARDS to $8m/war for round numbers, as they touted a win should be considered worth even more than that, in order to finish at 81-81 by the time you add in taxes, benefits, and minor league salaries (even all at leage minimum) you need 29 ‘war’ x 8 = 232m +taxes/benefits +minor leaguers. That’s easily a $270+m payroll just to hit .500.
That’s why I hate it. A more reasonable number would be 1war = $4m in value, placing total team expenditures in the upper 100s which mirrors reality.
Cora was bad at making decisions in 2022 but his decisions won us 2018 and got us far in 2021. Mixed data but I’m willing to give him a chance or at least not blame him before the season starts.
You’re a statistics guy, so to me that’s 2 out of 4 (if you count 2019), which is fair.
Red Sox have the best record of any club in ST.
================================
I only pay attention to the high-variance players. Most players produce according to their historic norms. For me, the things that caught my attention are:
1-Casas by a fair margin. I was looking at his L/L ABs today and they are tolerable. And I like his approach.
2-Crawford/Winc-I am grouping them since they are kind of interchangeable, and will be part of that 6/7/8 SP combo. I’m not sure what their exact roles will be, but if they can produce anything close to a 4.25-4.50 ERA, it will be that much less pressure for us to use Whitlock & Houck. There is a lot of trickle-down.
3-McGuire looks like he is settling into a startin grole. That could be important to someone that’s gotten time intermittently.
4-Duran, only because of his 0/4 K/W. That’s been a weakness in the past.
Disappointments? Schreiber a little. Too early to see if he is a flash in the pan. He flattened out a bit down the stretch, but never had those types of innings before. And the offense looks a bit flat.
In 2022 the going rate for WAR was 8.5 per 1 WAR, per Fangraph. Red Sox got 4.2 WAR, which shouldve cost 35.7M. That is a steal.
“it’s a bad metric for contract value”
Then give us another one? You want to, outright, dismiss Fangraph’s system of using WAR, yet you have nothing to offer other than your opinion in its place. I prefer Fangraph over GA’s and KD7’s opinions.
blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-…
“you need 29 ‘war’ x 8 = 232m +taxes/benefits +minor leaguers. That’s easily a $270+m payroll just to hit .500.”
That WAR equation is talking about FREE AGENT SIGNINGS, where you’re competing against other teams for the player’s services. Those costs are offset by cheaper players on the team that come up through the minors. Thats why no team is made up completely of FAs it would be too expensive.
It is a mathematical formula of all the FAs contracts in a given year, divided by the WAR they produced. (8.5M for 2022)
Come on, seriously?
You wouldn’t think all this would need to be explained, would you?
What you’re missing is, it’s just as ridiculous to peg things to where they presuppose the replacement level player resides – in other words, fungible players on Minor League deals, KBO, NPB, etc etc are available at league minimum signings and would produce higher than a .320 record.
And then you say it’s supposed to be an average of all free agent contracts, but, they don’t peg it to discount against worthless and bad contracts that shouldn’t have ever been signed. You skew the market by inflating things doesn’t make it ‘worth’ some inflated amount. A 2.0 WAR player doesn’t give you $16m in value…
Are you saying brasier was worth NEGATIVE 7m in value to the sox and should’ve been cut?
WAR has it’s place – it mathematically compares guys playing the same position. That’s it.
But as a measure of value vs $ contracts? It’s worthless.
Or, are you saying Benintendi was worth a $27m contract last year? That on average Benintendi ranged from $40+m/yr down to $23m/yr in value?
It’s ludicrous.
There isn’t a straight linear value to compare a war level produced to every contracts, because, you get an exponential premium when you concentrate WAR within a single roster spot.
Having 3 OFers of 2.0 war each is less valuable than a single 6.0war OFer that then allows you opportunity to capture additional production at 2 other positions on the field and in the lineup.
It’s a broken assertion to claim any linear relationship to contract value. Just like you wouldn’t take a whole city, divide sales price by Sq ft, and say all houses were then worth $x per sf. There’s variations in quality and it would be an inaccurate inflated metric.
Shool bit