Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino To Begin Season On IL

Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters this morning, including ESPN’s Marly Rivera, that pitchers Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, and Lou Trivino will all begin the season on the injured list. Rodon is suffering from a mild forearm strain and will be shut down for 7 to 10 days, though Cashman notes that Rodon has already undergone an MRI and has no UCL damage. Kahnle was previously reported to be suffering from biceps tendinitis, while Trivino is suffering from a mild elbow sprain and will be out until May. This news is a significant blow to the Yankees pitching staff, which has already lost right-hander Frankie Montas to shoulder surgery.

Rodon figured to pitch at the top of the Yankees rotation alongside Gerrit Cole after signing a six-year, $162MM contract with the club this offseason. That contract stood as a clear gamble on Rodon staying healthy going forward, given his lengthy injury history. 2022 was just the second year of Rodon’s career where he had managed to pitch more than 140 innings, and it was the first such season since 2016. While Rodon’s newest injury (which Cashman describes as “not serious”) is currently only expected to force him to sit down for a week or so, it certainly brings to mind his career-long injury struggles. That said, Rodon has been among the best starters in baseball when healthy, as shown by his sterling 2.67 ERA (157 ERA+), 2.42 FIP, 33.9% strikeout rate, and 0.998 WHIP over the past two seasons.

Kahnle, who returned to the club this offseason on a two-year, $11.5MM contract, has managed just 13 2/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season, battling injuries ever since. That said, he has stood among the better relievers in the game when healthy, sporting a 3.44 ERA (127 ERA+) and 3.16 FIP in 188 1/3 innings of work since the beginning of the 2016 season. Kahnle’s absence seems likely to be a shorter one than that of Trivino, who the Yankees acquired at the trade deadline last year from the A’s alongside Montas. Trivino pitched exceptionally down the stretch following his trade to the Bronx, sporting a 1.66 ERA (238 ERA+) and 3.34 FIP over the course of his 21 2/3 innings of work in New York. Both Trivino and Kahnle figured to feature prominently in the back of the Yankees bullpen this season, particularly as sidearming reliever Scott Effross is set to miss the 2023 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Though this trio of injuries certainly weakens the pitching depth available to the Yankees as they open the year, they still have competent options capable of stepping up and filling for the injured hurlers while they are on the shelf. Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt were already figuring to battle for the fifth starter spot following Montas’s injury, and Rodon’s injury leaves the door open for both players to make the Opening Day rotation. That being said, the Yankees have little in the way of starting depth remaining should the rotation sustain another injury. Cashman mentions Deivi Garcia as one potential option, as noted by Erik Boland of Newsday Sports, but it would certainly make sense for the club to consider bringing in an external depth option such as Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer on a minor league deal, as well.

The bullpen picture is significantly rosier, however, as the Yankees still can rely on the likes of Clay Holmes, Michael King, and Wandy Peralta in the late innings of games. These injuries could also provide right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga an opportunity to work his way back into the late-inning mix for the Yankees after a difficult 2022 season where he posted a 4.15 ERA (95 ERA+) in 48 innings while sporting a reduced strikeout rate of just 18.2% and an inflated walk rate of 9.4%. Should the Yankees wish to acquire additional bullpen depth, there’s a few options still available on the free agent market, including right-hander Corey Knebel and former Yankee Zack Britton.

That being said, any external additions would likely require a change of heart regarding the upper limit of the club’s payroll or a trade to create payroll space. The Yankees have, to this point, seemed unwilling to surpass the fourth tier of the luxury tax, which stands at $293MM. That’s a line the club is pressed right up against, with RosterResource estimating their current 2023 payroll at roughly $292.5MM for luxury tax purposes. While third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks were seen as the most likely candidates for a salary-clearing trade this offseason, most clubs would likely balk at adding such significant salary to the books just three weeks before Opening Day, making someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa a more likely option for the Yankees to deal should they try and swing a salary-clearing trade.