Not long ago, the future looked bright for Keston Hiura and the Brewers. The former No. 9 overall draft pick (2017) had been a universally lauded top-25 prospect in the sport due to a high-probability hit tool that overshadowed concerns about his glovework. He breezed through the minors, torching opponents in Rookie ball, Class-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A before reaching the Majors in 2019 and erupting with a .303/.368/.570 batting line and 19 home runs in just 348 plate appearances at 22 years of age.
Hiura’s long-term position was something of an open question due to an elbow injury that required surgery in college and left questions about his arm strength even at second base. However, his bat was so advanced and his professional track record was so strong that it didn’t seem to matter much. That rookie production and his minor league track record suggested a player whose offensive profile would fit at any position on the diamond.
Granted, Hiura’s 30.7% strikeout rate as a rookie was a red flag, but strikeouts weren’t an issue at all until he reached Triple-A and the big leagues. There was reason to believe that with more experience, he could pare back on the swing-and-miss in his game. Further, given the 91.4 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate he boasted that season, the impact when he did make contact was substantial. Even with a .402 BABIP pointing to some regression in the batting average department, Hiura looked the part of a slugger who could turn in an average or better batting average with plenty of power.
That now feels like a distant memory. In the three seasons since that time, Hiura hasn’t improved upon his strikeouts but rather seen the problem worsen. He fanned at a 34.6% clip in his sophomore season while posting a disappointing .212/.297/.410 line. Optimists could perhaps chalk that up to a relatively small sample (59 games) and the strangeness of the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but Hiura hit just .168/.256/.301 with an even worse 39.1% strikeout rate in 2021. His bottom-line results were better in 2022 — .226/.316/.449, 14 homers in 266 plate appearances — but Hiura punched out at a career-worst 41.7% rate last year.
Along the way, defensive metrics have regularly panned his abilities in the field. Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-14.1) and Outs Above Average (-12) all offer resoundingly negative reviews of his 1204 career innings at second base. Those metrics grade him as an average defender in 603 innings at first base. He’s also logged 40 innings in left field, but those days are likely behind him, given the number of interesting outfield prospects on the horizon in Milwaukee. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could all join Christian Yelich and the currently injured Tyrone Taylor in the 2023 outfield (as could third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson). Uber-prospect Jackson Chourio is also rapidly approaching the Majors.
With Hiura’s struggles at second base and both Brice Turang and Luis Urias presenting options at the position, he’s unlikely to spend much more time there. A move to third base seems out of the question, given concerns about his arm strength. Both Urias and Anderson are more seasoned options at the hot corner anyhow. At first base, Hiura’s right-handed bat would seem like a natural pairing with lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez … except for the fact that Hiura has pronounced reverse splits in his big league career. He’s batted .253/.332/.508 against righties but just .201/.283/.323 against lefties. Even that stout production against righties comes with a 34.5% punchout rate and .342 BABIP, suggesting regression could be in order.
As things stand, Hiura looks like a right-handed bench bat who’ll primarily work at first base and designated hitter, perhaps with very occasional appearances at second base and in left field. It’s a limited role to begin with, and it’s one that’s further complicated by a dismal showing this spring. Obviously, spring results don’t carry much weight, but hitting .174/.269/.217 with nine strikeouts in 26 plate appearances (34.6%) on the heels of a difficult three-year stretch in the big leagues doesn’t inspire much confidence in a rebound.
Furthermore, the Brewers have multiple right-handed first base options in camp who are simply outproducing Hiura this spring. Again, we’re dealing with the smallest of samples, so it’s all to be taken with a grain of salt, but each of Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller and non-roster invitee Luke Voit have posted better numbers thus far.
Brosseau hit .255/.344/.418 last season — comparable overall production to that of Hiura. He’s having a monster spring showing and can play first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners. Unlike Hiura, he’s a right-handed bat who has more traditional platoon splits: .276/.338/.485 versus lefties (127 wRC+), .207/.295/.356 versus righties (84 wRC+).
Miller, acquired from Cleveland over the winter, had a big start with the Guardians in 2022 before wilting and finishing out the year with a .243/.301/.351 showing. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ from last season handily tops Miller’s mark of 85, but Miller’s 19.8% strikeout rate is less than half that of Hiura’s 41.7%. Miller is more capable at second base and has even been working out in center field this spring.
Voit was also outproduced by Hiura at the big league level last year, but his 31.5% punchout rate — while still unsightly — still clocked in 10 percentage points lower. Voit has the bigger track record of MLB success, having led the Majors with a 22-homer showing back in 2020. Injuries have sapped his production since 2021.
Perhaps the biggest thing working in Hiura’s favor is that he’s out of minor league options. The Brewers can’t send him down without first exposing him to waivers. It’s possible that the $2.2MM salary to which he agreed when avoiding arbitration over the winter might allow him to pass through waivers unclaimed, but Milwaukee may not want to risk waiving a former top-10 pick and top-25 prospect only to watch him break out elsewhere. Brosseau and Miller both have a pair of minor league options remaining. Voit isn’t on the 40-man roster after signing a minor league deal, although he’ll reportedly have the chance to opt out of his deal tomorrow if he’s not added to the roster.
To Hiura’s credit, he’s a career .299/.400/.600 hitter in 508 Triple-A plate appearances. Even last year while striking out a nearly 42% clip, he averaged a whopping 91.7 mph off the bat and put 45.2% of the balls he hit into play at 95 mph or better. The quality of his contact is elite. The frequency of contact is among the worst in MLB. Hiura’s strikeout rate was the worst of the 317 batters who had at least 250 plate appearances. His 62.3% overall contact rate and 71.2% contact rate on pitches within the strike zone both ranked third-worst among that same group.
It all presents the Brewers with a quandary. They have at least three right-handed-hitting alternatives in camp who are capable of filling that first base/designated hitter spot. Brosseau has more defensive versatility, comparable recent production and is a more natural complement to lefties like Tellez and DH candidate Jesse Winker. Voit has similar power upside, although he’s limited to first base/DH and is two years removed from being a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. Miller doesn’t have the same offensive upside but might have the most defensive versatility and definitely has the best bat-to-ball skills of this bunch.
Milwaukee has several alternatives to Hiura, whose trade value is minimal at this juncture in his career. There’s understandable risk in parting ways with him and allowing for the possibility of another club claiming him on waivers. But, at the same time, hanging onto him leaves the Brewers with limited roster flexibility while simply hoping for him to finally hone his approach at the plate after years of being unable to do so. And since he can’t be optioned to Triple-A, he’ll likely be left to do so in sparse playing opportunities since he currently projects as a bench piece in the event that he does crack the Opening Day roster.
It’s a tough spot for the Brewers to find themselves, and there’s likely no solution that’ll make them feel truly comfortable. Opening Day is just over two weeks away, however, so one way or another this will culminate in the team making a difficult choice.
That’s a long article for a non-dilemma.
He’s making $2.2M this year with a positive WAR last year and he’s 26 years old.
You may end up surprised Dave, very real chance he does not make the 26 man roster in 2 weeks.
1 war for top end players is 6.5 million. Keston delivered 0.9 war last season. At 2.2 million hes a bargin
I don’t think it’s quite as simple as that. If they can get that 1 war from Brosseau while he covers more defensive positions, the easy choice is Brosseau. 1 war probably isn’t enough to overcome the “square peg round hole” fit he’s got with the rest of the roster.
$/WAR isn’t linear. $6.5M/WAR is only true for star players.
lol it really is the longest article ever
I needed a 5-hour energy to get through it.
That $2.2M isn’t fully guaranteed yet. If they cut him before Opening Day, they’ll owe him 45 days of that salary (about $600k I think). So if they’re really discouraged and also can’t find anything on the trade market, the Brewers can escape from about $1.6M.
Not saying that’s at all likely, and they would have to be absolutely appalled at his spring performance to even consider it. The Brewers have shown to be spending-averse, but I think they’d have non-tendered him during the off-season I’d they weren’t willing to take a $2.2M gamble.
Cainer, I’m not sure that’s true. I think the last labor agreement changed it so the entire contract amount is guaranteed.
That’s a great point, I forgot to factor in CBA changes! You’re right that all arbitration salaries are guaranteed. I guess I need to forget some of those convoluted old rules to make room in my brain for new convoluted rules
Good point. But my take is it’s not the salary that is a dilemma, it’s the roster spot. Brewers are a contender if their pitching is healthy (a big “if”), and I would think they value an extra win or 2 very highly. Are they comfortable carrying a guy with a 40% K rate, no base running or defensive value, who is out of minor league options?
@saratoga72 unless yelich’s back issues are behind him and can regain some of that mvp caliber player and the rest of that lineup starts hitting better there not winning the nlc. i agree there pitching is outstanding but they had that last year and still missed the playoffs, mil needs bats and they really didn’t add any this offseason.
@saratoga72 while that is true and hope they pan out because i like good competition even if there a rival team, but banking on 2 unproven kids with upside is asking a lot. then again it wasn’t like there were a lot bats in fa this year that weren’t one of the big ss.
Tearing it up down on the reservation?
Dude? Wtf??
Disregard he strikes out 50% of his ABs. Brewers need to move on.
The problem is that other than his rookie year, a “positive” season of 1 WAR last season, and a disastrous spring so far, it’s the roster spot. Spring numbers usually mean little, but if you’ve been struggling in the real seasons for years and have a bad spring, the question is do you commit a roster spot? That’s the dilemma. Because DH has plenty of abs that will already go to others, and with little defensive value, that limits his chances for ABs even more. They should likely at least try to trade him, even if it’s for someone completely expendable from another teams farm that they’ve given up on, to at least try to save the 2.2 million, but for anyone saying he’s a bargain, I don’t foresee any team taking him on for anything but league minimum.
Brewers problem looks a lot like the Cardinals DeJong problem except for the defensive part. A lot of teams have players in that situation that’s why you see bad contract for bad contract trades.
DeJong fits better on the St. Louis roster, though. He’s one of only 3 guys who can realistically play SS for them (and plays it very well), and if his bat does rebound, the Cardinals could just move Edman back to 2B and Donovan back to a utility role.
hate to see Edwin Diaz go down like that in the PR/DR WBC game tonight. guessing he’s done for the season. sour note at the end of a stellar game.
You don’t know that yet, but it didn’t look good. Cohen’s spending spree seems a little more tolerable now that his team has pitching problems.
Statistics are nice, but the fact is that while this guy gets some walk-off hits every now and then, he’s simply an awful player to watch play. Poor at defense and baserunning. Displays a low Baseball IQ. He’s basically a pinch hitter if the other guys on your bench that can hit are having injury problems.
The “Dilemma” the Brewers currently have is how to get some MLB organization to take on his contract, and what it’ll cost the Brewers to do so. He’s no longer a youngster with a higher potential ceiling if a few adjustments are made. He is what he is – and as such is a waste of a ML roster spot.
Agreed!
Agreed. I understand being intrigued by the numbers he puts up in the minors. The power potential is real enough, but I wouldn’t want him on my team. He can and has gotten hot and carried this team, but there are too many shortcomings in the total profile. Time to move on, no regrets.
Package him to a team like my Tigers with one of your young outfielders (Mitchell) and grab some pitching and patch some other holes. Someone will believe they can fix him.
Great concept, but it would have to be another team. Tiger GM Scott Harris wants to focus on contact and OBP.
Javy Baez says hello
Hence trading for Mitchell in the package.
He definitely looks to me like someone whose hold on a 26 man roster is tenuous. Yes, his offense is ok (it’s unclear whether WRC+ adequately dings a player for that high a K rate) but that’s all he brings to the table and you don’t see many teams carrying a guy who they can’t use except as a part time DH and pinch hitter.
I loved Keston Hiura in college and thought he would be a solid MLB hitter with his advanced approach and great line drive swing. I really hope his MLB career doesn’t mirror Dustin Ackley’s career-great 1st MLB Season then steadily declined.
“Great line drive swing” And that is the crux of the problem. Keston is a victim of the launch angle fad. In changing his swing to get more loft, it completely messed him up.
Agreed, the Phils screwed Scott Kingery the same way… Give him the contract and then 180 his entire swing, abandoning what got him the contract in the first place….
Hope greener pastures are out there in other organizations for both of them….
It’s like this guy said “how can I make my career prospects as terrible as possible?”
Someone then told him to strike out more and be a defensive non-factor, to the point you are moved to easiest position defensively or even moved off of defense entirely. Also, don’t hit enough to play either of those positions.
And he said “bet”
Send him to the Jets
Hiura for a half empty bag of Big League Chew seems more and more likely, Problem is he can’t play 2B, can’t really play 1B and may not hit enough to DH. Not sure where he may end up but it would seem like the roster spot could be of better use to the Brewers. Brosseau is hitting 300 points higher (.474) than Hiura (.174) and Luke Voit is hitting .326 on the spring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hiura DFA’d in the next couple of weeks
You’re not allowed to use batting average though. It’s meaningless..except for how it factors into other statistics.
All we need to know is ge had the highest (IIRC) OPS on the team last year (and simultaneously forget the rest of the team wasn’t good, just lousier than him).
Saw him in college quite a bit. Didn’t think K’s would be a problem for him.
Given his age and salary, I could see the Reds, Pirates, Rockies, claiming him off waivers. Particularly the two who play in launchpads.
Add the Dbacks to that list (mediocre team & launching pad home park)
miller park is also a launching pad too, the only park that isn’t a launch pad in the nlc is busch.
I don’t think he’s ever going to hit…..
I think a change of scenery might be just what he needs.. Things certainly don’t seem to be improving in Milwaukee.
No room in the inn for Hiura in Milwaukee. Best to cut bait now. Sure, given his draft day pedigree, one of the non-contenders will assuredly claim him off waivers. No guarantee he performs any better in KC, Pitt., Coors or D.C.. But those teams can afford to give him 200 at bats to see if they’ve found something of value or got blinded by the glitter of fool’s gold.
Might be something there to salvage if Hiura bags all that launch angle and exit velocity mumbo-jumbo and goes back to the swing he had in college. Trying to hit every pitch to Green Bay hasn’t worked in Milwaukee. That go-back-to-what-got-you-drafted approach is working out well for Scott Kingery this spring. Kingery is another example of a guy who did well at first and then fell off a cliff when the hitting gurus and analytic nerds changed his swing to an uppercut.
See the ball, hit the ball.
He’s elite in both sides of hitting elite contact power, and elite all alone on not making contact on pitches in the strike zone. Doesn’t have any defense flexibility. Brewers should waive this headache and make better use of 26man spot. Easy choice had he not been a 1st rd selection.
They need to trade Huira for a AA/AAA pitcher who can help in relief soon. They should keep Voit, Brousau & Owens ahead of him.
As cheap as the Brewers are being right now, he makes the roster. No doubt about it.
If a player is bad defensively and strikes out more than 40%, yet is still a positive WAR player, it’s an indictment on how WAR is calculated.
Keston Hiura has no place on a winning team. He’s a rally killer and a defensive game wrecker. Brewers would be well served to move on to whomever is next.
It’s because his ISO was 222, due to him having 8 doubles, a triple, and 14 homers in only 234 at bats. And like Martras says below, his wRC+ was 115. That’s 15 percent over league average for you metric haters out there.
He should’ve been nontendered in the first place.
wRC+ 115 last year. There were 16 qualified DH’s with a median production of wRC+ 103. Hiura produced at a level nearly identical as J.D. Martinez.
Question: would he have been as good as his stats show in his rookie year if he hadn’t benefitted from the guys in the lineup around him? I won’t swear to it, but I think he hit ahead of Braun most of that year.
I’m no expert, but I’m afraid he’s trending more towards being the next Gallo or Chris Davis than turning it around and being even slightly above average with the bat. But even if he does they still can’t hide him on defense.
Sounds like a perfect candidate for a change of scenery. A buy low trade on the horizon I’d figure