Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder on Feb. 21, manager Aaron Boone announced (Twitter links via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com and Joel Sherman of the New York Post). The best-case scenario for a return would be late in the 2023 season.
Montas was already known to be behind schedule heading into spring training, thanks to inflammation in his right shoulder that slowed his offseason progression. General manager Brian Cashman said three weeks ago, however, that the damage didn’t appear to be structural in nature. The GM added that more information would be gained once Montas began his throwing program. That was scheduled for late January, and it now seems clear that things didn’t go as smoothly as hoped.
The 29-year-old Montas (30 in March) was acquired from the A’s alongside righty reliever Lou Trivino last summer in a deadline deal sending prospects Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Luis Medina and Cooper Bowman back to Oakland. Things quickly went awry for the typically steady Montas, who yielded six runs in two of his first three appearances with the Yankees and ultimately wound up yielding four or more runs in eight Yankees starts before landing on the injured list.
Prior to coming over from the A’s, Montas had been excellent, pitching to a 3.30 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk rates over 291 2/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2021. However, there was some concern about his shoulder even before the Yankees made the trade, as Montas left an early-July start after just one inning due to inflammation and didn’t pitch again for 18 days. He totaled eight innings and held his opponents to three runs in two return starts before being dealt to the Bronx.
The Yankees tendered a contract to Montas this offseason and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $7.5MM for the coming season. He’s slated to become a free agent in the offseason, making the forthcoming surgery an even more sizable blow both to the team and to the player himself. The Yankees won’t get much more than those eight shaky starts out of Montas now, and Montas himself will at best have a few weeks of late-inning work under his belt before heading into free agency for the first time.
With Montas out of the rotation picture and lefty Nestor Cortes dealing with a Grade 2 hamstring strain that’ll jeopardize his availability for Opening Day, the Yankees’ rotation looks much more top-heavy than it did a few weeks ago. Gerrit Cole and offseason signee Carlos Rodon form a powerhouse one-two punch, and they’ll be followed by Luis Severino, who’ll be looking for his first fully healthy season since 2018.
Right-hander Domingo German is the favorite to step into Montas’ spot in the rotation at the moment, but if Cortes also needs to miss time, the outlook of that fifth spot becomes a bit murkier. Candidates on the 40-man roster include Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and Matt Krook. It’s at least possible that the Yankees will look outside the organization, but they’ve been unwilling to cross the fourth and final luxury-tax barrier and currently sit less than $1MM shy of that mark, per Roster Resource.
Yanks rotation held together by scotch tape and elmers glue
That and 2 Cy Young candidates at the top of it
Cole and Rodon and pray for …
Typhoon?
Monsoon?
Nasty Nestor
He’s hurt too. They won’t be better this year than last. Enjoy!
@luckyh, define “better”?
Love Rodon, but just last year he was such an injury risk that the White Sox didn’t even offer him a qualifying offer. It was the wrong call obviously, but he’s far from a sure thing at the top of the rotation.
Not exactly the kind of start that the Yankees would of hoped for on the first day of ST. 2 starting SP’s going down. Not that familiar with the Yanks farm but do they have replacements?
Yeah I’d be very careful with counting on Rodon. He was healthy last year, but that’s just the Giants. They have some serious magic pixie dust when it comes to pitching health. He throws very hard and a LOT of sliders, and has a history of problems.
Montas was known to have had issues with his arm before the trade – and for some time. It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise to anyone. The trade to acquire him certainly came along with a risk.
And the Yanks need to pray that Rodon can stay healthy. As his signing also carries some health questions- although maybe a lesser amount.
They can say what they want about him being injured when he was traded to the Yankees. Doesn’t explain why he wasn’t operated on the day after the season ended so he’d be ready by opening day. That needs some explaining why they waited until the first Day of ST.
By the Way the Cubs are making the exact same mistake with Hendricks.
Every team is praying for their starting pitchers to stay healthy.
German can step in and he’s a seasoned vet. Clarke Schmidt would be next in line.
Rodon is a 2 pitch pitcher that gets hit extremely hard. He is basically Gerrit Cole with a little less velocity and less repertoire . He will get strike outs, but he is moving from the top HR suppressing stadium to Yankee Stadium. On paper it looks like a bad signing, but we will see what happens when the season begins.
Hit extremely hard? Wow , he must have been super lucky last year!
“Doesn’t explain why he wasn’t operated on the day after the season ended so he’d be ready by opening day”
Explanation: Montas’s contract expires at the end of the season. Surgery would cost him most, if not all of the season. Yankees were trying to get something out of him for this year and rolled the dice, but guessed wrong.
Hindsight is always 20/20.
FYI: Im not a Yankee fan. Just stating the obvious.
That’s why I was surprised anyone gave him big money for a number of years. But then again, I said the same about DeGrom.
Large markets can throw it around though, and ruin it for the small markets.
Where did you go to medical school ?
Since the crackdown on the sticky stuff started, Cole has been the 16th best pitcher with a 3.37 ERA. He has been basically Patrick Sandoval in ERA while throwing 180-200 innings. Not much of a Cy Young candidate now that he can’t cheat anymore.
Still a very good pitcher though. Would take him to slot in behind Ohtani.
I apologize. I thought the crackdown started at the beginning of the 2021 season, while it actually started in June 21st of 2021.
Since then Cole has a 3.66 ERA. 26th best over that time period.
@outinleftfield: Cole can’t slot in behind Ohtani. They’re on different teams.
You realize that pitchers can have off years and get back to their prior level of performance?
Terrible that the 26th best ERA in that time period was 3.66. That used to be a 3rd or 4th starter ERA, not an Ace
Was going to respond to Blue Baron, but why bother? If he didn’t understand my original post, he won’t understand my response either.
Its been a year and a half. That is who he is as a pitcher without the sticky stuff cheat.
When was 3.66 ERA a 3rd-4th starter? 1968?
@outinleftfield: Your original post was that you would take Cole to slot in behind Ohtani. What part of they can’t because they’re on different teams do you not understand?
Cole with a 111 ERA+ (3.47 FiP) in 2022 a Cy candidate? Did that many SPs bolt to the NL??
They aren’t going to be using 2022 stats to determine the 2023 Cy Young Award winners, so what does it matter what he did last season? There will be 75 starters in rotations in the American League at the start of the season. Everyone of them are currently candidates for the 2023 AL Cy Young Award.
So you think 2022 was an anomaly for Cole or are they allowing spider tack back in with pizza box bases?
Add in a free taco waiting for you at 2B if you steal it and we’ll be a little closer to the prime-time ABC reality clown show Manfred is trying his darndest to concoct.
Cole only got one vote, for a total of 1 point. I assume it was a NY writer that gave Cole his lone 5th place vote.
Not any more bro with Tampa and others using Openers rather than starters
“Cole only got one vote”
Thats one more vote than the entire Red Sox staff in 2022. He will be the best chance for Cy Young they have in 2023.
@rsmith You do realize there’s 13 other American League teams, right? But way to call out the Red Sox.
Yes, but Cole is hittable. I’m still not sold on Rendon until I see him pitch. Let’s see how he does in New York
Re: Rendon — It will be interesting if this new “enforcement of balking” will apply to any of Nestor’s cat-and-mouse move on the mound. Not saying it will, but Manfred’s got his one eye on you, Nasty!
I wouldn’t be putting too much faith in a guy that took 8 seasons as a ML starter to finally make 30 starts in a season
I wouldn’t call Rodon a serious Cy Young candidate. He could surprise us, but he’s never finished any higher than 5th place in the voting before.
Sure, but he’s going from the NL to AL, which 2022 winner has already vacated (Verlander). Previous vote recipient: Cortes, is already missing some time. You’ve still got Cole, Manoah, McClanahan, Ohtani, Cease, Framber Valdez, Gausman — but he should have a better shot if he has another good year, especially being on the east coast in the hub (NYY) of where many of those voters are, or are paying attention to, at the very least.
Don’t forget that deGrom is now in the AL. And he gets Cy Young votes even when he only pitches half a season.
5th and 6th last two years.
Why is it so bad to call him a contender?
Because you’d need at least one Top 3 finish in recent years to be considered a serious contender for the award in the preseason.
Sorry, but that’s absolutely ridiculous.
So according to your criteria, the last three NL Cy Young award winners weren’t “contenders” in the year they actually won.
And why simply the top 3? Like there’s normally a huge gap between 3rd and 6th, voted on by sometimes bias writers with flawed thinking….
Let me guess…. You just hate the Yankees.
Contenders, sure, but not serious contenders. Very few if any analysts picked them to win before the season started. As such, they were surprise winners to at least some degree compared to what people thought of them in the preseason.
That huge gap is exactly why. It shows that the Top 3 are generally a level above the others. The writers aren’t that biased to make up such a difference.
But…. There isn’t a huge gap between the top 3 and the rest of the league every year— that’s simply not true.
The fact that three consecutive NL Cy Young awards were won by players that you didn’t deem serious contenders, shows an immediate flaw in your thinking.
Analysts don’t automatically predict from the top 3, but feel free to prove me wrong if ANYONE picks Robbie Ray or Lance Lynn.
I said “generally,” which is absolutely true. You even admitted it yourself in your previous post!
That’s not a flaw of thinking at all! It just happened by coincidence, as can easily happen. It’s also absolutely true that not many analysts picked the three of them to win the preseason before they did.
Analysts pick from the Top 3 a lot more often than they pick anticipated breakout guys who yet to finish higher than 5th place in their careers. Lynn finished 3rd just two years ago, so it would make plenty of sense to pick him.
A coincidence 3 years in a row? That’s a trend, not a coincidence.
Not sure what I said in previous post that you’re referring to.
You put entirely too much weight on sportswriters and past history. Really good baseball players (and pitchers) naturally progress. Real baseball people understand this.
The funny thing about it is Lynn was barely better (if at all better) than Rodon 2 years ago, and Rodon was clearly better last year. Lynn isn’t close to a contender- ask Vegas!
But enjoy your time in bizarro world.
Cashman always gets shafted by the A’s.
I think it’s just different philosophies. One team spends money, the other makes small deals to build the farm.
No it’s the A’s still butt hurt over losing Giambi. They love to rake Cashman over the coals every chance they get.
I’m not complaining
Everyone Getz shafted by The A’s and Rays
Like seriously if I wake-up one morning as a gm thinking hmmmm how do I get shafted in a trade today I pick up the phone and call the A’s and/or the Rays
Everyone gets shafted by the A’s? The Olson/Murphy trades still have awhile to pan out, but Pache already looks gone, while Langeliers should be a good starter. It’ll be interesting to see what Kyle Muller and Freddy Tarnok do this year. Royber Salinas had a lot of momentum before being traded, and could be nice down the line. It was interesting that OAK essentially went for Esteury Ruiz over William Contreras — so let’s see how that pans out.
That being said, with Olson/Murphy locked into nice extensions — I don’t think anyone got shafted in either of those deals.
Not entirely sure that applies to the A’s. The Jays have done pretty well trading with them over the years.
Then there’s the Piscotty trade where neither side won. The A’s only got one good year from Piscotty before he went downhill, while the Cardinals didn’t get much from either Munoz or Schrock.
Mark Mulder 2.0 except the Yankees didn’t even get a full healthy year…
Thanks For Jordan Montgomery =)
I’d do that Montgomery trade again in a heartbeat.
Scotch Tape has been Designated for Assignment.
Ruh roh
These are the risks large market teams can weather. Get well soon Frankie!
Uhh? He’s a free agent at seasons end buddy. This trade is looking like a nightmare. They basically traded 4 prospects for lou trivino.
Yeah, so what’s your point? So you got hosed. It happens. And this is the kind of risk a large market team can handle. Why? Because they can still go out and buy free agents and swing trades again soon. Small market teams can’t necessarily recover as quickly.
What FA are you talking about – as guys are reporting now? Unless Profar tries becoming a 2-way player — no one in top-50 free agents worth anything that can fill in for Montas (with SD signing Wacha). They’re best to allow a prospect try their hand at it. Luis Gil?
Dude is a stud when healthy and I think he can be even better
He might be out for the season! Did you read the post?
According to Cashman, “not necessarily.” But that certainly opens up the opportunity he might be out for the year. Yikes. And the injuries begin…
I think best case scenario he returns late in the season, but we all know he’ll only be one “setback” away from being out for the year. Not holding my breath.
According to Cashman? hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Ahhahahahahaha
Seems obvious that he was damaged goods when he was acquired. How did the medical staff miss the signs?
They outsourced it to the Tigers and W. Sox Medical staff. Only logical explanation Hatter
Life of Brian:
Waldo-chuked full Monty and the funky called Medina for injured goods Monty-ass and young Master Bader, leaving a lot riding on a single Rodent.
And a lump of coal.
Apparently they need to hire the medical staff away from the Mets or Giants.
Madd Hatter: They didn’t “miss” anything. He missed nearly 3 weeks earlier in the season. It even says so in the article. Reading is fundamental.
The didn’t listen to me saying hes Clevinger 2.0 when in reality he was Mark Mulder 2.0
And they really just had this hankering to trade Montgomery to the Cardinals for Harrison Bader, since they didn’t have a legit CF, there were multiple pressures, but John Mozeliak knew better than to get tangled up in a three way trade with the A’s
The Bader move felt a bit like 2021 when the NYY opened the season without a real lefty batter. When they realized that, they had to trade for Gallo & Rizzo, and that gets expensive.
Cashman makes more bad trades than good ones
Getting donaldson was really a bad idea also
I say this as a yankee fan for decades
Bro everytime he trades with the mariners we get shwindled. I think he’s a top 10 gm for sure.
Montas wasn’t on the Mariners. You’re probably confused because Luis Castillo, who is actually good and isn’t going to miss the whole year, got traded TO the Mariners last year.
No, Cashman has hosed the Mariners a few times. James Paxton for Justus Sheffield was lame. Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero was lame.
Sterling Hitchcock and Russ Davis for Tino Martinez and Jeff Nelson
Me too, but see this:
pitcherlist.com/top-10-general-managers-in-all-of-…
And the good news for the rest of the world is they just extended his bad trade making self
Should have included all those prospects (plus Peraza) for Castillo. I think he was been injured before the trade. They need to appeal this.
This guy has good stuff but he’s NOT HEALTHY.
im a yanks fan.but theres a thing called, buyer beware.cashmans an idiot.as am i because i believed him.
yeah sure. good luck proving he was this damaged at the time of the trade. He pitched for the Yankees. it’s not like he hasn’t pitched at all.
bad trade in hindsight but that doesn’t mean the As purposely misled anyone.
@ Dave Frost
Caveat emptor.
28 other GM’s knew Montas was a shoulder surgery waiting to happen.
Another great trade by Cashman. When is this guy going to be held accountable for all these bad moves? Sounds like Montas was damaged from the start and the Yanks did’nt catch it.
Yankees were desperate for an above average starter to go along with Cole. Luis Castillo went the Ms. Montgomery went to the Cards. Desperate times calls for desperate measures.
I’m convinced he has black mail on Hal.
Should have included all those prospects (plus Peraza) for Castillo. I think he was been injured before the trade. They need to appeal this.
This guy has good stuff but he’s NOT HEALTHY.
Then they should have caught it at the physical,before the trade became official.
How many times has this played out with pitchers from Oakland? I think I’d stop shopping there for pitching. The position players from Oakland tend to work out much better.
Bassitt was good
Donaldson sucks
Donaldson was quite good until he got to NY. Age related decline?
You guys got Donaldson from the twins. If you had of acquired him back when he was playing for the A’s it would have worked out just fine 😉
But Yankee fans said he made their rotation the best in baseball. That is aging well
The Yankees rotation did probably look like potentially the best in baseball. Not so much anymore, but no team’s rotation looks nearly as good when two of their top pitchers are expected to miss significant time or a whole season.
I mean, how does Houston’s rotation look without Verlander and Valdez last year? It would still have been adequate, but hardly scary.
Boone: he’s got a sore shoulder from playing longtoss but it’s nothing serious.
My 15 year old plays for a high level travel team here in Georgia. He had a throwing program over the winter and tore his labrum. His surgeon is the Braves ortho surgeon and they are telling us that long toss is bad for the shoulder. He has surgery Friday morning.
no offence ,but nobody cares about your 15 year old kid.we care about the yankees.
All offense meant – shut up.
His point was that long toss is bad for shoulders. The part about his 15-year old is that he’s cool enough and rich enough to have surgery done by a particular person.
@slimray you lack critical thinking skills, homey! The focus wasn’t my 15 year old. Sometimes it’s best to just not say anything. This was that time for you.
Real nice. You sound like a very pleasant person to be around…
Not what he said he said surgery next week.
He said they’re doing “exploratory surgery but it’s nothing long-term” and “we are hopeful that he’ll be down here (Tampa) with us at the start of everything.”
Reason #456 why Boone should be fired. Shoulder surgery and he thinks Montas will be ready to throw before the season starts…. What an imbecile he is.
Reason #456 why Boone should be fired.
==============================
I’ve never seen a manager with less of a sense of urgency. I think his auto-response is ‘sure, we’re fine”.
Yeah, I’m not sure why downplaying every single issue is his default.
Maybe the Yankees would be interested in a swap with the cards. Carlson and Hudson for hicks(whole contract), Dominguez and thorpe?
Another delusional Yankees fan lol. Carlson would cost Dominguez +, big guy
I’m not hoping a man gets injured but as an A’s fan and a Yankee Death Star hater I’m kinda smiling. Montas doesn’t want to pitch and has no balls. A’s win the trade by default
You’re right, the A’s won that trade. Probably one of the only things they will win.
Worst trade ever
Nestor will be called for a balk every time he puts a quirk in his delivery and Montas is injured. If Rodon’s long history of injuries bites the Yankees in the a$$, this could be a tough season.
That’s not how balks work
Well, maybe read the statement on balks issued by MLB. Deceptive deliveries, stops and starts, and things like that are definitely being looked at. Balks are not just related to pickoff moves.
Everything ive read said the rules shouldn’t hamper Cortes in any way. You can hesitate your delivery or change arm slots all you want as long as you do it right
Yankees got fleeced on this deal, that Rodon signing looks even better with this news.
Rodon’s not a paragon of health, either. Fingers crossed.
No that’s true, but as of right now he’s healthy and he’s been really good, that’s all Yankees can ask for.
The day they signed him the Carl Pavano Memorial MRI Tube was turned on and set to standby. Rodon will be trying his best to rename it.
If only they just kept Montgomery and traded the prospects for Bader
The Cardinals didn’t need prospects. They have all the prospects they need. The Cardinals needed starters. The Yankees don’t get Bader without giving up a decent starter.
Fleeceman strikes again!
He shouldn’t report to camp til July anyway
Worst possible timing for Montas and the Yankees.
At this point I hope it doesn’t jeopardize his career.
Not a real shocker here. Time to double-down and sign him to a pillow deal for next season or two.
Yeah, it was blatantly obvious that this was the case as soon as they announced his shoulder was still bothering him six months after the shoulder strain and a long layoff.
What a horrible trade. The Yankees traded prospects to house Montas on the IL for 18 months and L. Trivino. Thankfully, German is mostly reliable for innings.
Agreed this was a horrible trade (stupid trade really) but I’m not overly concerned either.
Remember that Montas was on the IL last July (before the trade) due to this shoulder issue, and the Yankees still made this trade. His shoulder was a known issue at the time all around baseball (and it is possible that Montas himself lied about how much it bothered him and tried to pitch through the injury).
Montas was pencilled in as the fifth starter anyway (assuming Nestor is recovered by the beginning of the season) so this isn’t the biggest loss, though if another starter goes down things will get interesting.
I’m not overly concerned about the players the Yankees traded – J.P. Sears was decent in his few appearances with the Yankees last year but very mediocre with the A’s in 10 appearances (plus he’s 27 this year so he’s not really a stud prospect); Waldichuk was mediocre as well in Oakland in seven starts (he’s 25 and just getting started in majors, so yes he can get better with regular starts on a last place Oakland team): Medina is out of options and got shelled after the trade to Oakland in AA (so he would just be a DFA candidate if he was still on the Yankees), and Cooper Bowman is a mediocre 2B/SS who’s never played past A+ ball (and we know the Yankees are loaded with middle infielders), posting a .669 OPS last year.
German is not a popular Yankee (and rightly so) but he isn’t the worst 4th/5th starter in the world, and I think it’s time the Yankees find out if Clarke Schmidt can take on a starting role (like Sears he’ll be 27 this year so it’s time to find out). At least the bullpen is still in decent shape, though I do actually worry about Holmes and his arm.
Looking forward to the 2023 season no matter what.
Yankees21: I pretty much agree w your entire assessment. The trade was definitely quantity over quality that the Yanks gave up. I think Waldichuk’s development is what’s going to make this either a ho-hum oh well no big deal trade or a bad trade.
I agree, Waldichuk is who will determine the value of this trade. Some people seem to think this package could have been used towards Luis Castillo but that’s not the case; Seattle blew away the whole league with the package they gave the Reds (the Yankees would have needed to headline with somebody like Volpe to match that package).
Maybe we’ll see the return of Deivi Garcia this year who still has a spot on the 40-man (I’m kidding of course, but there is always optimism in the Spring). Fangraphs says he’s out of options (though I believe I read somewhere else that may be in dispute and he might have one option remaining) so who knows. It look like it will be an interesting year for the Yankees rotation.
Quite true. Of more concern is the apparent injury to Cortez, and hopefully they’re not minimizing his injury too.Hopefully he will be available for most of the season because if not, then we will have a problem
Waldichuk is the #3 southpaw pitcher as rated by MLB Pipeline.
Here’s how the A’s GM spoke of Waldichuk:
“We think Waldichuk has a chance to be a top-of-the rotation arm, and we certainly saw glimpses of that in the big leagues. With him, it’s the physicality, the fastball command, and the swing-and-miss he gets with three different pitches. I think Ken has a huge upside.”
I think you’re also possibly underrating Sears.
Oakland traded A.J. Puk, their top pitcher prospect in 2021, to the Marlins for JJ Bleday, both first-round picks when drafted. Currently, Fangraphs projects a future value of 40 for both Sears and Puk but assigns a Low risk rating to Sears compared to Puk’s High risk rating. Fangraphs defines Risk as “Distance between ceiling and floor outcomes.” Sears has already pitched to a 3.86 ERA and 4.21 FIP for a 6-3 record in the majors, completely shutting down the Mariners twice.
It’s interesting as the ratings vary and are very subjective.
I’m looking at Keith Law’s evaluations this morning and he has Waldichuk as Oakland’s #4 prospect in a very weak system (Law has Oakland ranked #27 out of the 30 MLB teams). Waldichuk is not in his top 100 (the only Oakland player on that list is Tyler Soderstrom at #60) and Law believes Waldichuk is “more likely to end up a reliever in the long run between his lack of a pitch to get right-handers out and below-average command from a long arm swing”.
I may be underrating Sears but he’s at that age where has to produce on the major league level for a full season to be relevant – if not he’s going to become a journeyman soon because he’s now in his late 20’s. I put Clarke Schmidt in that same category but watching them both last year I think Schmidt has more potential (and I would have been happy to see Sears not be traded as he did pitch well overall in his Yankees starts).
As much as Cashman gets bashed, with all the minor leaguer starting pitchers the Yankees have traded away the past 5-6 years they haven’t been burned hard yet, though it could still happen with Waldichuk, or Hayden Wesneski on the Cubs, or Roansy Contreras on the Pirates. or maybe Glenn Otto steps up this year (though I’m not sure if he even has a spot in the Rangers rotation right now). Or unfortunately these pitchers could wash out like Justus Sheffield or never reach their early potential like James Kaprielian and Caleb Smith or they become decent middle of the rotation arms like Jameson Taillon.
The truth is nobody knows but it’s fun to speculate. Eventually the odds may catch up to the Yankees and they will get burned hard in one of these trades but it hasn’t happened recently, and right now this trade doesn’t concern me. We’ll see what the future brings.
Do you give more weight to Keith Law’s assessment than to the assessment of Oakland’s front office? Do you suppose Law has seen more of Waldichuk than Oakland’s scouts have seen?
Waldichuk is #76 in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 and their #3 southpaw pitcher.
If any of the pitchers traded for Montas contribute anything, they’ll contribute more than Montas will contribute to the Yankees. And they’ll be paid less.
As I wrote earlier, all of these ratings are very subjective, so I don’t take any one over the other.
I only cited Keith Law because I’ve been reading his prospect lists the past few days and he was fresh on my mind. I’m sure he misses on prospects all the time, just like the Yankees do, just like the A’s do. Nobody is even remotely close to getting this stuff right all the time.
I think the Oakland front office, like any good front office, is going to speak positively and optimistically about their own players. They are publicly expressing their most hopeful expectations about the player, knowing the player will be hearing them too. They may have an analyst in their office who believes what Keith Law does, but that doesn’t mean they are going to broadcast it publicly. And they may have another analyst that believes he’s going to be a solid can’t miss #1 starter. No point in broadcasting that either and setting an overly optimistic expectation (though Forst did come close). It’s all subjective to the each analyst’s viewpoint and nobody in the world knows the true outcome until the future unfolds.
The Yankees talk up all of their prospects too, and then trade them off to fill needs on the MLB roster. No team is going to publicly announce their concerns and detail each players weakness and negatively impact their value or morale.
And I agree the Yankees lost this trade, that’s for sure, we just don’t know how badly yet. Nobody does. Right now, I’m not overly concerned about what the Yankees gave up, at the moment it seems to hinge on how Waldichuk performs. Or maybe JP Sears will go out and pitch like a solid #2 starter and really tip this over. And maybe Lou Trivino (don’t forget about him) becomes a lock-down closer this year (as a Yankees fan I am concerned Clay Holmes’ arm) and pushes things in the Yankees favor. I’m not saying any of these things will happen, but as John Sterling says, “You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn”. For fun, nobody at this point last year was predicting Matt Carpenter going on a tear for the 2022 Yankees (in fact I think most everybody figured he was washed up and done).
The Yankees lost the Sonny Gray trade too, but it seems like a small loss right now. Dustin Fowler was sold to Pittsburgh and is now out of baseball, Jorge Mateo was traded for a player who’s spent the last two years in Stockton (Junior Perez, who isn’t on Law’s to 20 A’s list, but maybe you know more about him), and James Kaprielian is 29 this year and might be the #7 – #8 starter (at best) for the Yankees if he was still on their roster.
FYI I am enjoying this conversation!
I thought Forst’s comments were a pretty full-throated endorsement, although it’s true that any GM would speak well of a new acquisition. And, admittedly, the A’s owner is arguably the worst cheapskate in the league, and losing Montas’s salary might’ve been enough to content him.
I’m unable to arrive at a conclusion about the Sonny Gray trade. If he’s to be believed, it was the insistence of the coaching staff (Rothschild, specifically) that messed him up. His initial outings with the Yankees weren’t bad. On the other hand, his home-road splits in 2018 might lend some credence to the idea that he couldn’t handle the pressure of New York. I really don’t know. It’s curious that he went from the Bronx to pitching in a launchpad in Cincinnati, where he went right back to pitching like an ace.
In any case, John Sterling is wise.
Nice talking to you, too.
Sign michael wacha … oh wait cant.. well I guess we will see who wins out of schmidt or german
German by default.
So you guys want flex aaand marco?
And there it is folks, the reason why Nestor Cortez was pulled from the WBC.
Nestor was pulled from the WBC because he’s also injured.
Luis Castillo should have been in Pinstripes last August 2nd. 2022 season would have been better; this year would be better for Yankees. Waldichuk Wells, Dominguez, & Warren could have got it done.
FWIW Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo, who topped Seattle’s four-player package for Luis Castillo, are currently ranked No, 29 and No. 44 at MLB Pipeline, which currently ranks Jasson Dominguez and Ken Waldichuk No. 47 and No. 76.
The proposed four-player Yankee offer was unlikely to top the Seattle offer.
On that same note – yanks could have offered one of big 2 and reds liked combo of marte and arroyo better still
That’s because yankee fans always over value the yankee prospects!!
Seems like this surgery should have happened last year.
Then they wouldn’t have been able to trade him to the Yankees….
Seriously though, stop trading with the A’s for pitching, Cashman!
Nonsense! Bader came here in a boot.
Very true, YBC, very true.
@YBC, not a plane?
Montas’s shoulder was injured before this foolish trade was made. What’s more, he had been busted for the PED Ostarine in his “breakout season” of 2019. Not only have numerous pro and Olympic athletes been busted for this drug, but so have the trainers of thoroughbred race horses. Plus, his fastball, measured in Weighted Fastball Runs, was in the negative range in 2022 before the trade.
Cashman should’ve been fired long ago.
If he trades Gleyber to make payroll room to get Jurickson Profar, swapping a career 114 wRC+ for an inconsistent 94 wRC+, that’ll be the icing on the cow pie. Since 2018, Gleyber’s rookie year, Gleyber has been credited with 10.3 fWAR. In the same period, Profar’s been credited with 5.9 fWAR.
Unless they’re willing to give the second base job to Volpe, they can’t afford to count on DJ playing second base, especially if Donaldson confirms that his bat speed is history and they need DJ to take over at third. And that’s if DJ is healthy, which is not a given.
“Weighted Fastball Runs” did you just make that up lol ??
Take your best guess.
If there’s any better excuse of why stats don’t mean anything it’s the fact that that guy would make one up to suit his purpose. I rarely quote stats as I like to watch games to make my my own assessments. I might even get the MLB package this year as they’re adding MILB for free this year. Cubs basically show a lot of Cubs MILB but it would give me a chance to watch some other teams prospects. Stats are a basic waste of my time. Especially WAR which is basically the the opinion of whoever is figuring it out.
“Stats don’t mean anything” is a silly statement. If you want to say that they don’t mean anything to you, that’s a different thing.
Here’s the stat Weighted Fastball Runs (wFB), which I didn’t make up:
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&…
When applied to pitchers, it shows how well the pitcher performed against hitters with that pitch. When applied to hitters, it shows how well the hitter performed against that pitch.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&…
If that’s what you got thanks for making my point. Some stats are stupid. But yours are ridiculous. The old standby’s, ERA, OPS , BA are useful. I have a feeling I’d be better off talking to the tree in my front yard than you. Atta Boy
Glad to hear that you think some stats mean something, Mike. That looks like progress.
“I rarely quote stats as I like to watch games to make my my own assessments.”
I hear you, Mike. Stats aren’t the game — the game is what happens on the field. Stats only measure what happened.
Mathematicians develop new stats to try measure events on the field with more detail and precision, that’s all.
Then if stats tell everything, then why do the Pirates, Royals, Orioles and Reds draft at the top of the draft every year and are constantly rebuilding? When the Rays, Braves, Dodgers and Yankees draft at the bottom and still come away with the better prospects? I’ll try and explain it to you, But you won’t get it. They actually PAY their scouts real money to watch players instead of cheaping out in the organization and paying scouts peanuts and plugging crap into a computer and trying to get answers. I’m really glad the Cubs are following suit in this grand tradition and now have top notch scouts and instructors to move things along. So keep throwing out useless crappy numbers that mean squat. I’ll keep watching the games. Like I thought, you’re lost aren’t ya?
Who ever said that stats tell everything? They don’t. They’re attempts at measurement, but there are lots of things that defy mathematical analysis.
The act of fielding a ball, for instance. If an outfielder goes after a fly ball and it’s misting and the grass is wet, and there’s a sudden gust of wind that changes the direction of the ball in flight, does a statistic account for all that? Of course not.
Bill James is known as the father of sabermetrics. He was hired by the Red Sox as an advisor and worked for the franchise for 17 years. They won four championships while he was advising them. Here’s my favorite Bill James quote:
“I created a good part of the analytical paradigm that the statistical analysts advocate, and certainly I believe in that paradigm and I advocate it within the Red Sox front office. But at the same time, the real world is too complicated to be explained by that paradigm. It is one thing to build an analytical paradigm that leaves out leadership, hustle, focus, intensity, courage and self-confidence; it is a very, very different thing to say that leadership, hustle, courage and self-confidence do not exist or do not play a role on real-world baseball teams. The people who think that way…not to be rude, but they’re children. They may be 40-year-old children, they may be 70-year-old children, but their thinking is immature.”
I think you keep throwing out insults because you’re defensive about the fact that you don’t like math. You act like statisticians are your enemies. They’re not. There are some obnoxious and overbearing math heads who talk down to people, but they’re probably among the children that James talked about. Have I insulted you for being uncomfortable with math? Not that I’m aware of. I’m not a mathematician myself.
You asked why the Rays, Braves, Dodgers and Yankees draft better than other teams. First of all, that’s an arguable assumption. Who’s drafting better than the Astros? Not the Yankees, that’s for sure. Besides Judge and Severino, which Yankee stars were drafted by Cashman? MLB’s Jim Callis ranked the best-drafting teams of 2022:
1. Mets 2. Rockies 3. Orioles 4. Reds. 5. Guardians 6. Padres
mlb.com/news/teams-with-best-hauls-in-2022-draft#:…,…%205%205.%20Guardians%20…%206%206.%20Padres
The O’s and Reds ranked third and fourth.
You theorize that teams draft better because they pay more for scouts. How do the Rays, one of the lowest-budget teams in baseball, fit into that group? You think they pay their scouts more than the Yankees pay theirs?
The Rays are noted for their use of analytics. They were the first to use defensive shifts with regularity.
The fact is, all teams use analytics, and all use scouts. No team uses only one or the other. The Yankees and Dodgers have been at the top in payroll for years, and the Braves have been in the top 10 in payroll.
The Rays are an outlier, getting to the playoffs repeatedly on a tiny budget. The modern game rewards analytics and good scouting. It also rewards big budget teams that can buy free agents.
You can keep being angry and offensive if you must, but nobody’s telling you your way of enjoying the game is wrong. Maybe you should stop bagging on people who enjoy it in their own way too.
Yeah I didn’t bother to read any of that. But I can tell by how long it is you’re a bore.
“But I can tell by how long it is you’re a bore.”
You say it like it’s a bad thing.
Then if stats tell everything, then why do the Pirates, Royals, Orioles and Reds draft at the top of the draft every year and are constantly rebuilding?
=========================
Not to get in the middle of this, but did you just compare the tiny market teams with the uber-market teams? Just for conjecture purposes, let’s say that the Orioles just spent another $200M. Do you think they wouldn’t catch the NYY?
Poster formerly unknown as . . .
Who ever said that stats tell everything? They don’t.
============================
This is why America is in the mess it is in. People don’t understand numbers. No one number is the everything number. The assessment of everything is based on a cumulative tally of every number you can find.
If you like a rookie’s 28 HRs, but ignore the 189/28 K/W, you will likely lose. If you like a rookie’s 42/38 K/W, but ignore the 2 HRs, you will likely lose.
Looking at a variety of numbers is the #2 rule of math.
Not sure why you think it is ridiculous. It shows how well he performed with his fastball. It does exactly what it is supposed to. Just because you don’t understand it and what the stat is meant to tell people doesn’t make it useless.
Smart people watch the games and use stats. The more info you have the better you understand what is going on and whether or not a player/team’s success or lack thereof is sustainable.
Translation: I’m not smart enough to fully understand what you just said or properly refute it so I am going to pretend like it doesn’t matter.
His statement was not only informative and interesting, but correct and went a long ways towards refuting your statement.
Trade score A’s are coming out looking good in the Montas deal so far. Especially if Waldichuk gets into the rotation and does what he has in minors
The A’s easily won that trade.
If the Yankees falter at all this year that trade is a fireable offense. I think Cashman is way past his expiration date.
A’s duped the Yanks
None of those prospects will amount to anything much, so I would not be worried.
Right. How could the #3-rated southpaw pitcher prospect possibly amount to anything much?
mlb.com/prospects/lhp/
So glad Cashman passed on Luis Castillo for this bum. This guy never makes the right move when it comes to pitching. Sure, he can get the no-brainers like Cole and CC, but can never find young pitching talent.
@gene fitzmagic
He took Ross Atkins lunch money in the JA Happ trade with Brandon Drury and a guy that’s probably bagging groceries now going to the Jays. If you say he signed Happ to an contract that way too long, I give you Hyun Jin Ryu.
Cashman has done a decent job trading.
You mean JA Happ, the 4 starter on a good day? If that’s the golden standard that’s hilarious as a Sox fan
Another “Pig in a poke” by the great Cashman.
Hate seeing injury news, but love Yanks bad news.
Trading anything for an injured player going out of contract is not a good plan, but I don’t see that the Yanks traded anything they valued to the A’s. The A’s haul was valued in terms of quantity rather than quality. Waldichuk may prove serviceable, Sears is questionable and the other two are aging, middle-minors suspects. None were likely to see the light of day with the Yankees. Track record aside, calling for Cashman’s head based on this trade seems a bit drastic. I think Cashman looked at the trade at the time as a low-risk gamble that Montas might actually help the team in their run for the post season. They will DL him and quickly move him to the 60 day to get him off the 40-man so they can find a suitable replacement.
@FullMontilla
Waldichuk is currently ranked the #3 southpaw by MLB Pipeline.
Sears might be underrated. He got smacked around by the White Sox, Rangers and Mets, but he held the Mariners to a total of one earned run in three starts on a total of nine hits, and six of those hits came in the one outing when he gave up an earned run. In his two starts in pinstripes, he got the win in each and gave up no earned runs. Even if he ends up a viable lefty reliever, he’s more valuable than Montas on the IL.
Keith Law ranks Luis Medina the A’s #17 prospect, with this description:
“Medina has elite stuff, a good delivery, athleticism, and way too little idea of where the ball is going. His walk rate of 13 percent last year, all in Double A, was his career low, and actually got worse after the trade that sent him to Oakland, as he walked 22 in 20 2/3 innings for Double-A Midland. He’s up to 99 mph with a slider and changeup that you could call plus, but he’s 24 now and I can’t see him starting at this point. Just put him in the pen and let him sit 97-100 and outstuff hitters for an inning at a time.”
Sounds like a young pitcher with a potentially high ceiling.
BTW, the DL is now the IL. With juicer Montas, you might be seeing the term frequently.
@FullMontilla
” . . . the other two are aging, middle-minors suspects.”
Luis Medina turned 23 in May (Keith Law was wrong when he said he’s 24), and Cooper Bowman turned 23 in January.
“Aging”?
He was never healthy at any point he was with the Yankees. Damaged goods at point of the trade, although the Yankees had the opportunities to review the medicals. More of a loss depth wise at this stage.
Yes, makes you wonder a lot about the Yankee “medical staff”!
RATS
I don’t feel sorry for the Skankeeys. It’s good they have to deal with adversity. It levels the playing field. With their payroll, I don’t feel sorry for them one bit.
Cashman sucks.
Bad luck for the Yankees, but bad luck is bad luck, it’s not just poor judgement. Makes for an interesting end to the season, if he returns. I’m not sure there’s much left out there to buy for the Yankees, so they will have the handle it internally. There goes the CBT cap
@Mikenmn
Of course it’s poor judgement. My Jays were in dire need of a pitcher & even they stayed away from Montas knowing this would be the outcome.
Cashman needs to stop trading for Oakland pitchers, never works out. Regardless, this trade was doomed from the beginning. Trading several young pitchers for 1.5 years of an injury-prone 5th starter was idiotic. Honestly though I’d rather him be out for the season than see him regularly start games, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets moved to the bullpen after he recovers, the guy is a liability who can barely get through 3-4 innings.
To all Cardinals fans: Be thankful Mozeliak and Girsch didn’t come to a trade agreement witih the Athletics to acquire Montas.
Next article: Brian Cashman signed to 10-tear extension
Year
Tears For Years
Yanks are probably regretting not offering Taillon the QO or signing him long term.
Taillon is injury-prone and not worth 70m
can RHP Luis Gil be moved into the Rotation or is he strictly a Relief Pitcher ?
Kind of wanted him in that Trade instead of Luis Medina.
Everything about the Montas trade is BAD NEWS. But, what is done is done.
The fact is that German was better than Montas anyway, and has played mostly injury free (knock on wood). Slotting German into the #5 spot and having Schmidt as a swing man still give the Yanks a very good rotation, if Cole, Rodon, Severino, and Cortes can stay healthy. If……….
I’m so glad the Cards didn’t trade for Montas, since it was rumored we were in the mix for him as well. Between the PED cheating and the fact he’s just not that good, he had bust written all over him even before coming up lame
Typical yankeees
Might be one of the worst trades in Yankee history. Montas decided to undergo shoulder surgery because its his contract year and he wants to be fully healthy to make as much money as possible and doesn’t want to risk worsening his stats. I’d rather have JP Sears over Montas honestly, he looked good
I agree that the Montas trade so far appears to be a bad trade for the Yankees, but it is not even close to being as bad as the Willie McGee for Bob Sykes trade. Sykes came to mind because he was another pitcher with major injury issues.
jay buhner to mariners for ken phelps was worse.
Of course this happens the day after Wacha sign with the Padres
I wonder if Cashman could do it all again would he give the Reds what they wanted for Castillo knowing how good he pitched for the Mariners and then signed a team friendly extension
can Cashman be fired yet for another blunder? George wouldn’t put up with his incompetence.
How is it that the average yankee fan knew the risk with montas shoulder issues before the trade yet the oh so wise Cashman didn’t?
How is it that the average yankee fan wanted waldichuk promoted to the majors and now he’s vying for a rotation spot in Oakland and his counter part in the trade isn’t going to pitch in the majors this year?
Oh and to top it off, the yankees are now wasting nearly 8 million for a shelf piece.
Cashman is a bum, and so is Hal.
So he decides to have surgery just before spring training starts for an injury he had last season.
I liked montas as a 5 starter. Honestly tho I thought it might have been a good trade piece in a deal for say Lopez as he has been iffy in NY. He definitely has high end talent but not everyone can pitch in NY… his dYs in pinstripes are probably over unless Cashman inks him to a extension. Which we all know is quite possible lol
dmac
I liked montas as a 5 starter.
============================
My problem with the entire process, from day 1, is that they basically flipped Montgomery for Montas.
If you needed an SP and traded for Montas, okay. If you had excess pitching, and traded away Monty, okay. But they basically traded a know quantity for an unknown quantity.
Yankee’s need to sign Cole Hamels for the league minimum ASAP!
If you think it’s worth gambling on a 39-year-old who’s pitched 3.1 innings since 2019 and has had surgeries on his shoulder, knee and left foot since then, then sure. But are you sure it’d be for the league minimum? He’s a free agent and pitched a showcase in Texas, and supposedly he’s fielding offers from more than one team.
I wouldn’t mind it myself. They caught lightning in a bottle with Kluber until he got injured after the no-hitter.
Mariners will trade ya Luis Castillo for Volpe, Peraza, Dominguez, and your next three first round picks.
Reality #1: Division title/world series contending teams don’t start the season this thin on pitching in the majors without significant depth in the higher levels of the minor leagues.
Reality #2: No team trades away pitching within days of pitchers and catchers showing up to spring training without at least a slight “overpay”.
Reality #3: The Yankees clearly don’t want to cross the last luxury tax line.
Ergo I submit this trade proposal purely for fun and thoughtful discussion as none of us as random people posting on internet message boards have any real say in what our favorite teams can or should do.
Yankees get Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller. Pirates get Anthony Volpe, Everson Pereira, Roderick Arias, an A-ball lottery ticket dude and Aaron Hicks (to offset money and make it pretty much a cash neutral deal).
What say you, Yankee fans?
Another Cashman blunder who continues to strike out trading for injured prone starting pitchers ! And why didn’t they do this surgery on Montas last fall ?
Sick !
Great job by Cashman, failing to properly vet Montas.
Troubling that the Yankees doctors couldn’t spot any trouble — even though Montas was dealing with shoulder stiffness before the trade.
Now, the Yankees can look forward to zero return for that package of four prospects starting with Sears, who had already won a couple of games before the trade.
And to think that Hal never even considered taking to James Click and instead re upped a GM who failed to bring his team to the World Series in 18 of the previous 19 seasons.
Hal, please sell the team.
There’s an ace, in his prime, a former CY winner available for just some bad PR from a vapid hypocritical press corps. Call Rachel Luba up. She’s waiting.
“Yankees tendered a contract to Montas this offseason and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $7.5MM for the coming season” The initial trade was a failure, why compound it without doing medicals? To me, that’s the missing piece, especially for a team that says it doesn’t want to go over the CBT threshold…and now definitely has to
They should have non-tendered him the way he pitched and his injury history.
Convenient timing announcing this almost immediately after Wacha came off the board. They have known this for a couple months already and were waiting for the last domino to fall before announcing it so they didn’t have to listen to their fan base scream “sign this starter”….
Their playbook is sad and predictable. I wish they would stop calling Hal a Steinbrenner at this point…..he’s a Zieg (mothers maiden name) since he had about as much to do with the Yankees success as his mother. Right place right time just like mommy.
Hal Zieg
Classy.
It’s that intense pressure cooker of pitching in Yankee stadium. Some guys just shrivel up.
Nice! He’ll be ready for the end of 2023, just in time to go to the playoffs and sweep the Astros out of the playoffs, in 4-games.
I think the less important question is how/why the acquired Montas.
The more important question, imo, is why didn’t they go after Wacha? Maybe they did, and Wacha had no interest in NY. But they should’ve known that the rotation was likely to be at least one SP short, and maybe two for a while. It feels like they should’ve been more pro-active.
Trade Josh Donaldson to Dbacks straight up for Madison Bumgarner. Gives the Yankees a starting pitcher without going over the next level of the salary cap
i am shocked, SHOCKED at this development
why an otherwise intelligent organization would overpay for a guy whose velocity had dropped off a cliff is bewildering
Concurrently Cashman will be having brain surgery to alleviate the stupidity that fostered this trade.
Hal really showed his hand by not going after Wacha with Montes getting surgery. Just win me 90 games and a playoff game and we’re good. As long as the suckers keep paying at Yankee Stadium, I’m good in good old Tampa.