With last year’s trade of Harrison Bader, the Cardinals have less certainty in center field than they have had in a few years. Dylan Carlson got significant playing time there down the stretch and has been seen as the favorite for the job going forward, but he’ll have competition. Tyler O’Neill told reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that he has his sights on the job.
“I’d love to play center field,” O’Neill said. “I’m not trying to boot anybody away from that position either, but it’s whatever they deem fit. I know they’re very analytically-driven here. I just want to be the best player that I can be. I’ve worked really hard this offseason at increasing my first-step quickness and making sure my legs can be under me. I believe I can definitely play that position if that’s where they want me.”
It seems as though the club is willing to give him a shot. “(He’s) competing for the center field job,” manager Oliver Marmol said. “He came into camp wanting that. He came up through our minor-league system and actually profiled as a pretty good center fielder. So it’s something that he wants and he’s going to compete for and he’s going to have an opportunity to do.” O’Neill will get a chance to test himself out in competitive games before the MLB season starts, since he’s slated to play center for the Canadian team in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.
O’Neill, 28 in June, will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing season last year, but his 2021 was excellent. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. Defensively, he played exclusively in left field but got strong marks there, including 11 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and a 6.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Given his all-around contributions, he was deemed to be worth 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve.
However, he couldn’t maintain that kind of production in 2022, perhaps due to injuries. A shoulder impingement and hamstring strain each caused stints on the injured list, limiting O’Neill to 96 games on the season. His batting line dropped to .228/.308/.392, wRC+ of 101, with his defensive grades also slipping.
Since center field is considered a more challenging defensive position than the corners, O’Neill could potentially be even more valuable than he was in 2021. Of course, that would be contingent both on his health and his ability to be a viable center fielder. As Marmol mentioned, O’Neill came up playing center in the minors, but it wasn’t much. He logged 55 innings in High-A in 2015, 71 innings in Triple-A in 2017 and then another 50 2/3 innings at that level in 2018, the year he made his major league debut. In the majors, he has 210 2/3 innings there so far, most of that coming last year. It’s hard to get meaningful reads on a limited sample like that, especially because he was hurt at times last year, but he’s at least been around average. Both DRS and OAA have him at an even zero so far, while UZR has him slightly in the positive range at 0.8.
Carlson, 24, got much more center field experience in the minors, including getting around 800 innings at that position in both 2018 and 2019. Since making it to the majors, he’s logged over 1,000 innings in center with solid grades, including 6 DRS and 2 OAA, though UZR has him slightly below average at -1.0.
On the defensive side of things, he’s probably a more straightforward solution for the club, but his offense hasn’t shown the kind of ceiling that O’Neill has. In 312 major league games, he’s hit 29 home runs and stolen eight bases. His .247/.323/.407 batting is just a bit above average with a 103 wRC+.
That kind of production is still strong for a capable defender in center, but if O’Neill is deemed worthy of a shot out there, it could open up other opportunities for the club. They have one of the best prospects in the league in Jordan Walker, though he will probably be best suited for a corner. He came up as a third baseman but only recently started playing the outfield since Nolan Arenado has dibs on the hot corner in St. Louis for years to come. Walker dabbled in center last year but spent far more time in right. He clobbered Double-A pitching last year by hitting .306/.388/.510 for a wRC+ of 128 at the age of 20.
Walker will likely begin the year in Triple-A but his promotion doesn’t seem far off. At some point, the Cards will have to figure out how to juggle the playing time between Walker, O’Neill and Carlson, as well as players like Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson. The designated hitter slot should be open this year with Albert Pujols now retired, but it seems like there will be a logjam at some point. It’s the proverbial “good problem to have” and inevitable injuries will surely lessen the crowding at some point, but there might be some tough choices for the club to make in the future.
All of their outfield options are still shy of reaching arbitration and come with years of affordable control, except for O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time and is slated for free agency after 2024.
Probably better than Carlson to be honest..
Nope. Carlson’s OAA at CF was +4. and had a stronger arm. O’Neill’s best work was strictly at LF. Moreover, Carlson is 4 years younger and has a higher ceiling. O’Neill may have peaked as a player. He whiffs a ton. That’s why he wants to play CF. Corner OFs who can’t hit don’t make much.
Yeah, and Judge’s career will be over if he gets an injury also.
@dobs
I’m confused and don’t know what that has to do with the Cardinals center field situation. I assume this was some sort of attempt at sarcasm and wit but for the life of me I can’t figure out how Aaron Judges injury history and career is relevant to the Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill battle for center field. Who knows I may be the only one who doesn’t get it but it doesn’t make sense to me.
O’neil’ ball off the bat off judgement is horrible.
I haven’t watched enough of him to get an idea about his instincts but figure the Cardinals will just go with Carlson, he has at least proved to have a nice glove out there.
Lol no it’s not at all.
He has a sprint speed in the 97th percentile. It is odd he has gotten so little opportunity in CF in his career with those wheels.
Bader was better and faster while he was in St. Louis. It’s only been a few months since he was traded.
I was disappointed when Bader got traded.I enjoyed watching him play cf with reckless abandon. At least they got a good lefty starter for him.
CardsFan57 actually O’Neill is faster than Bader…not by much as where he would take the CF job from Bader but he is faster
O’Neill has largely been blocked by Bader, Fowler, and Ozuna… same reason Arozarena was traded for liberatore, and Garcia was sold to the Texas Rangers for 30 pieces of silver
Arozarena was traded because of a social media post that embarrassed the manager. Cardinal way and all. A year later the manager was gone, you know Cardinal way.
Arozarena was traded because they needed a premier pitching prospect to try to develop into their next ace and had a glut of outfield prospects.
O’Neill wasn’t really blocked. He just never got on base enough to deserve a full-time role until he put it all together in 2021.
he has issues judging the ball off the bat.
Having two very good and capable centerfielders is a good problem to have for Marmol. I would say their bats will determine who gets the most playing time.
They can both get full playing time. It’s just a question of who plays CF, which will still be Carlson if they both hit well.
I don’t like O’Neil in center with his big body builder frame. Back issues will just be a matter of time. One of these guys will probably be gone by the deadline. Which one will likely depend on the other team.
The Cardinals have a backlog of talented outfielders. They have 6 potential starters plus Walker. Some will be moved for pitching. Carlson or O’Neil will probably have to headline the package.
I agree with you, I think O’Neill should not be considered to play center field. That position is not an easy position to play. Left field is the perfect position for him, but the Cardinals are probably thinking that if Walker makes the team he will be playing right field or left field.
Even if Carlson is traded, I’d rather see Nootbar moved to center. He also has speed and a good glove. He’s far less likely to suffer back issues.
I definitely agree with you, but I don’t see Nootbaar playing everyday. To me he is a fourth outfielder that is good defensively. However, the Cardinals have high hopes and they expect him to play everyday. I think he is a .245 hitter/ his batting average. I hope that I’m wrong.
Good news, you are very wrong. As a 24 yo, he had a stellar season. His BABIP was .248 and ISO was .221. He already has great plate discipline for his age and his batted ball percentiles were well within the Statcast red. His arm strength is elite and he belongs in RF. He has the makings of a star. CF is a glove first position like SS and catcher. Carlson will be fine at CF. If I were a Cards fan, I’d be very excited about Nootbar’s future career. I’m a Yankees fan and I’m excited about him.
CardsFan57, I’m curious why you think O’Neill will suffer back injuries from being strong.
It’s not being strong that causes the injuries. It’s the stress having more upper body bulk puts on the spine and the rest of the skelatal system. It wouldn’t be as bad if that muscle was in the lower part of the body the way running backs are built. O’Neil has a high center of gravity and is very top heavy. His spine is the same size as everyone else. Centerfield covers a lot more ground and is involved in a lot more plays. Even if he’s not making the play, he’s running to back up the plays in left and right field.. The body takes more of a pounding in center. People built like O’Neil who do a lot of running have a higher probability of developing back issues. To make matters worse, fielding is not just running. There’s a lot of herky jerky motions in fielding at times.
Why don’t they make a trade with Seattle and send him back. They can have Kelenic and hope a new voice will help along with the stuff he did to improve himself.
Then you can have one of the pitchers. If you need a starter Flexen or Marco or if you want a younger prospect we have a couple of those too. There are a couple that you can’t have but some good young guys there. Would have fixed the big trying to fill in both sides of the plate from LF.
Probably because they would prefer a guy who was in the top 10 on MVP voting in 2021 to a fringey pitcher who probably wouldnt get into their rotation?
I think O’Neill wants to play CF because that makes the competition primarily between him and Carlson. If O’Neil stays in a corner and hits, there’s a logjam in RF. Also, if O’Neill hits like 2021 as a CF, how much more valuable is he for his next contract?
O’Neill being able to play CF helps him and it helps the team. Give it a try.
Agreed. He’s looking for that paycheck for being a power hitting centerfielder.
That is just as valuable as a power hitting shortstop. They should go for it if they think O’Neil is they one they are going to trade. That may actually be their plan. Play him in center then flip him in a package for a top starter. Long term durability is not their problem under those circumstances.
5 plus Walker, and they’re not trading any of them mid-season unless they absolutely have to do so. If they do need pitching mid-season, which they may not, they’ll almost certainly trade from the farm like usual.
I do agree that O’Neill’s frame is one reason why Carlson is better in CF.
TO could pick up Carlson, break him in half, and body slam the remains. If Tyler can stay healthy, he’s the better man for the job.
Definitely could be, if he can stay healthy, very athletic guy.
Tyler’s ability to stay healthy is the only concern, in my opinion. Other than that, he’s better than Carlson in every way.
Same.
Not every way, as Carlson is still the better defensive CF. If Carlson’s bat rebounds, he’ll be the one playing CF most of the time.
The amount of young MLB position player the cardinals have is crazy. Donovan, Gorman, Edman, Carlson, O’Neill, Nootbaar, Walker, Yepez, Burleson (not to mention a top SS prospect) all should be in the majors this year I don’t think any team beats that level of arb/pre-arb position players.
Add Moises Gomez who hit 39 homers between AA and AAA last year. He’s MLB ready too.
The question is do we have a logjam of mediocrity or will 2 or 3 become impactful major leaguers? It appears they are just throwing numbers at the lineup and hoping a couple stick. I hope I’m wrong, but this feels like the training camp QB competition in football. In other words, if you have two QB’s then you don’t have a QB.
They are all are quality based on their performance in the minors. Does that always translate to MLB success? No. I’m not saying it’s 6 or 7 All Stars. I’m saying they are 7 MLB quality outfielders. Many of them have All Star potential but potential isn’t guaranteed to develop.
It’s not going to be a one for one swap to get the pitcher the Cardinals need. It will take up to 3 of them.
There are only 5 or 6 of them (depending on whether or not Walker is ready), as Donovan plays more often on the infield, and they’re not going to trade away 3 of them just to get a pitcher they don’t need at the moment. We’ll see how things develop next offseason…
An abundance of league average journeymen has been the Cardinals way for a long time. They can’t develop a home grown superstar, But they can pump out 4th outfields and a utility guys with the best of them. Because of the fan base they are elevated to God like status in St Louis. But become relatively irrelevant once eventually traded or leave in free agency. Piscotty, Rasmus, Aaron Miles, Descalsco, Schumacher, Diaz, Ryan, Duncan, Bader, Jay. The list can go on and on.
It must be very frustrating for you when they turn all that mediocrity into players like Edmunds, Rolen, Wainwright, Holliday, Arenado, and Goldschmidt on the way to 15 straight winning seasons.
Bader is a 4th outfielder? I could have sworn that he was the starting CF for the New York Yankees…you need to look at John Jays’ stats, he was not a 4th outfielder…your jealousy reeks
Not really. When was the last time they did that? Edmonds, Rolen, Wainwright, Holiday, McGwire we’re all previous regimes under Jockety and/or TLR. Arenado was a salary dump by the fox and Goldschmidt was got for a catcher who was never going to play in St. Louis and a 4th/5th starter type. Arizona new they wouldn’t resign him after the season so they got what they could. Cleveland has had 9/10 of their last seasons as winning seasons too. But the difference there is they actually developed their own superstars.
I guess playing for the Yankees now means your an instant elite player? They must be flooded with offers for Aaron Hicks and IKF. We all know what Bader is, a good defender who goes in one hot streak a year and otherwise can’t hit. His hot streak just happen to occur in the playoffs last year.
“When was the last time they did that?”
Virtually this ENTIRE TEAM is either homegrown or players acquired by trading homegrown prospects. If you think that’s par for the course, go ahead and name how many ballclubs have seven (and Yadi would have made it eight) of their starting eight position players that are either homegrown or acquired by trading homegrown prospects. Throw in the likely DH, either Yepez (via Matt Adams) or Gorman., as well as the OF depth (Burleson, Gomez, Walker). And the pitching staff includes much of the same: Waino, Montgomery (via Bader), Flaherty, Hudson, Pallante, Gallegos (via Voit), Helsley, Cabrera (via Pham), Liberatore (via Arozarena), Thompson, Woodford, Hicks..
Perhaps you should look around the league and see how many teams are able to boast that many homegrown players, much less win 90 games and have 15 consecutive winning seasons thanks to their own drafting and development.
Many of them like Freese, Grichuk, Wong, Pham, Wisdom, Rasmus, Schumaker, Jay, and Bader have remained starting caliber players even after leaving St. Louis, and they did develop Matt Carpenter as a homegrown star if not quite a superstar. There’s also Arozerena, who they very well may wish they never traded.
Bader only failed to hit in his cup of coffee in 2017, 2019, and this past season in 2022. He hit above league average in 2018, 2020, and 2021, and while he did slip offensively last year, that was likely at least partly influenced by his injuries.
Besides, he can still afford to hit somewhat below league average given his excellent CF defense.
Freese was never a starting level player in San Diego, Saint Louis, LA or any where else. He had remarkable 3 weeks. Other than that, he flat out sucked.
That’s literally every team. That’s how baseball go. The difference is the Cardinals are a league average MLB team playing in AAA division. I’m as a big of a fan living in Saint Louis as there can be. I’ll compare LTD time and money invested with anyone. This art île isn’t News, it was first reported back in December. But what this article (and the recent radio talk) is doing , is trying to let the always blinded Cardinals fan know is that this team is a mediocre at best, as is, going into this season. If you think any casual fan in {name team}knows who Tommy Edmond is, you way over value him. Just as another example of players STL fans worship who become nobodies on other teams.
I love that the Cardinals are so important to you.
And I appreciate your admiration while I constantly shake my head at the kool-aid stains around your lips. I have them finishing 3rd at best in the division this year. And it’s going to hurt really bad when I leave the stadium in London after a sweep to the cubs.
Lol dude get a life…third in the division? I get the trolling..good for you but you are not a fan and you are only here for the attention that your sad life needs…thanks for playing
Lol what is your definition of elite…Bader has a gold glove and he was great in the playoffs…hits for average…that is kinda elite in the MLB lol get a life
Marcel Ozuna has a gold glove too. Not saying he is a good defensively, but more a reflection on the silliness of a gold glove. You can make an arguement for half the league to get a gold glove on any given year. The minors and independent leagues are full of defensive superstars. That’s not all that impressive. Hitting is 3/4th if the equation.
The Cubs are easily a 5-6 more win team. The brewers have better pitching. Honesty and trolling can easily be confused by the blind. When you have a team full of 4th starters, two studs and the rest of a team full of Travis Jankowskis, you shouldn’t be expected to win. Btw. If Travis Jankowski was a Cardinal, he’d easily sell 10k jersey/shirzees
Come on now guest678, the Cardinals are a really big part of your life. Just give in to the love you have for them.
Of course Freese was a starting level player! He deservedly started every year of his career save for his 2009 cup of coffee and finished with a career OPS+ of 112.
I gave in a long time ago. And for over a decade now the Cardinals have been a “C’s get degrees” kind of organization. They play in a very weak division so being average works for them when it comes to making the playoffs. But their performance is far from making the Dean’s list. And that’s been good enough for their fan base. Not me though.
Bader is generally recognized as one of the two best defensive CFs (along with Keirmeier) in MLB right now regardless of his Gold Gloves. He is indeed an elite defender no matter how you try to frame it.
You seem to be forgetting that the Cardinals won the World Series in 2011, the NL Pennant in 2013, went to the NLCS in 2012, 2014, and 2019, and won 100 games in 2015, Not counting 2020, they’ve won at least 90 games 6 out of 9 years in the last decade and won a trip to the playoffs each of those years. Despite a lack of recent playoff success, that’s still an extremely impressive recent record of success that only a few other teams have matched or surpassed.
As for the division, while it’s not as strong as some of the others most years, it’s never been completely weak, either. There has always been at least one, sometimes at least two, other legitimate contenders for the division title in the past decade. It was even arguably the toughest division in MLB in 2015 when the Cardinals won 100 games and only barely held off the Pirates with 98 wins and the Cubs with 97 wins for the Division Title.
As for the Cardinals’ current team makeup, you are way off! If you aren’t trolling, you aren’t being honest, either.
In actuality, they have two studs, a potential 3rd stud with a decently likely rebound (O’Neill), another very good bat (Contreras), several other guys who are probably at least league average hitters, a still strong team defense despite a couple of downgrades, a rotation with two #1s (Flaherty and Mikolas), a #2-3 (Montgomery), a #2-4 (Wainwright), a #4 (Matz), a #5 as the 6th starter (Hudson), with good starting depth further behind them, and an above-average bullpen. There are some health questions, but who doesn’t have those?
If Gordan Graceffo snd Mason Wynn perform nicely in the minors, Cardinals could be a powerhouse.
The Cards really do have a bunch of young, interesting players and it’s nice to see. I like Donovan, but I wish Gorman would make the adjustments necessary to take his job. Gorman has the kind of easy-pop rarely seen at 2B.
Bader was blocking him so give him reps where he’s going to play.
But will Gomez be ready for MLB pitching is the real question..
That’s always a question but he is 24 and ready to try. I don’t see him as a 30 hr hitter in MLB. Maybe high 20s.
I agree CardsFan57, he’s earned his chance (Gomez) I just don’t see how the Cards can make room for everybody to have their chances in the same season, but as usual, time will tell.
No room for everyone is exactly why some will be packaged to bring back pitching.
Every chance he could get near 30, but the problem is he could also strike out 40% of the time
But hey they got him for nothing, throw him in there and see what happens
Bader was blocking who, Carlson? I don’t have any issues with Carlson in CF, it’s in the batter’s box. I know most fans will blame injuries for his weak performance last year, which could be true. I guess we’ll see what we really have this season, in both players, O’Neill and Carlson.
Sorry, the comment I was replying to disappeared. Someone was asking why O’Neil didn’t play center in the minors.
Carlson was battling a wrist injury. Hitting is really hard with a wrist issue. He still had a league average bat overall. I’m still expecting him to be a very good player.
I hope you’re right, CardsFan57. Carlson deserves the chance to redeem himself. The outfield logjam is more interesting now than I remembering it ever being.
And again I will crash your Red Bird party and suggest they trade Gorman to my Tigers for pitching. Tigers have lots of that and a good range too. Want experience, grab Eduardo Rodriguez (if he gets back on track). Young, hook onto Matt Manning. Power reliever, Alex Lange. Let Gorman out of jail so he can play 😉 And so I’ll shut up and go away.
If I made the decisions, Gorman is still in the untouchable category.
You’re probably going want him even more this year. His offense cratered last because teams figured out he couldn’t hit fastballs high in the zone. According to Marmol he worked on it this winter and came to camp crushing fastballs up in the zone. He may have breakout year after fixing that hole in his swing. I’m not sure the Cardinals want to deal a high ceiling left handed power bat unless they have to.
Gorman hasn’t had the time to really develop defensively at 2B, or the opportunities to adjust his swing and showcase his true, raw power. I think he has a very high ceiling, and I’d hate to see the Cards deal him before he’s had the chance to grow as a player.
I’m worried about the 2nd base defense. It’s going to be even harder without the shift. He needs to DH unless he can improve a lot over last year. At some point 1st base might make sense for him. Goldschmidt will last longer if he starts being the DH more often.
I don’t have an issue with Gorman being the DH for now, but once again, the Cards have so many other players who need ABs to continue developing, like Yepez. You’re right, I think, some of the surplus will be dealt for pitching by the deadline.
Glasnow has to be favourite, Rays wont be super keen on paying him 25m in 2024. Whether they let him go at the deadline or in the winter depends on how competitive the Rays are by July, I guess.
Cards still dont need fringey pitching. If they trade it will be for a top guy, they have a big stock of mid-to-back of rotation pitching and similar depth at AAA
No way
You gotta love O’Neill’s desire to improve and the passion to just flat-out ask Marmol for the CF job. Not afraid of stepping on any toes. He does have to distinguish himself this season because of the overabundance of quality OF talent the Cardinals have right now. I only wish the Cardinals could develop starting pitching prospects as well as they have done with position players. Is Liberatore going to rise to the occasion and grab one of the jobs in the starting rotation ???
Greffacio and Hence are beasts.. elite pitchers for now. Idk if it will transition to MLB. But quietly, the cards have 2 very good ones!
They develped two of the top pitchers in the game, Unfortunately they traded them away before they showed their top talent.
Alcantara is one. Who’s the other one? I don’t consider guys like Zac Gallen and Marco Gonzalez to be top pitchers, and Lance Lynn left through free agency.
Zac for me
How does Marmol figure that TO came up thru their minors system?? He was in Triple A for what, 2, maybe 3 months from the time he was traded until he made his debut.
O’Neill will get hurt at some point. His history of injuries suggests this. We need the best bat and glove at each position to compete. Carlson could be used in a flip for a pitcher if needed as he still has value but this year he needs to show his bat belongs in the lineup with much competition arising around him.
I understand the Cardinals wanting to hold onto their guys to see who steps up, but they also run the risk of some of the prospects flatlining or struggling from inconsistent at bats.
The real true need is for starting pitching AFTER this year, when just Matz and (cough) D. Hudson remain. Even if a couple of youngsters step up, that’s entirely too much uncertainty for a perennial contender. I expect the team will extend Mikolas this spring (I’d prefer Montgomery but I bet he has his sights on free agency) but they still need a quality starter for 2024 and beyond.
O’Neill’s value will skyrocket if he shows he’s a capable CF and bounces back even close to his 2021 numbers; look how much Nimmo got just because he was able to play an average CF and put up some offense as well.
The Cardinals are blessed to have so much young talent, but I hope they don’t let any of it shrivel on the vine.
Yes, the Cardinals could be looking at a very active trade season next offseason. I just don’t see the Cardinals trading away any Major League talent before then.
Honestly, this depends a lot more on Carlson than O’Neill himself. If Carlson’s offense bounces back to at least close to a league average level, then he’s the starting CF, no question. If Carlson gets demoted to a short side platoon role or the bench, then O’Neill will get his chances in CF.
Carlson was league average on offense last year. He’s capable of much more without the wrist injury.
If you listen closely the sounds you hear early in the season are O’Neill’s hamstrings popping as he attempts to navigate cf.
he was horrible at CF. Leave Carlson there and trade O’neil.
O’Neill covers a lot of ground because he’s fast. On the other hand, he’s so bulky he looks really awkward in the field. I can’t imagine him getting regular time in centerfield.
Most of this is because he’s playing centerfield for Team Canada, but it’s still a win-win for everyone … as long as he doesn’t get hurt.
The problem with trading from the farm is that you aren’t getting a top level starter without giving up real proven value. They need some of these young hitters to prove themselves so they can get a number one starter. Some will be available, we can’t predict who until we see which teams under perform in the first half. Even if Flaherty does well, they will need another top starter to really make a run in the playoffs.