Twins Appear Unlikely To Trade Max Kepler

Max Kepler has been one of the game’s more frequently mentioned trade candidates over the past month or so. The signing of Joey Gallo added another left-handed bat to a Twins outfield that was already very deep in that regard. Kepler, as the oldest and most expensive of Minnesota’s in-house lefty outfielders, seemed the likeliest player to move if the front office wanted to deal from that surplus to address anywhere else on the roster.

While the German-born outfielder drew reported interest from the Marlins and Yankees this offseason, the Twins obviously haven’t found a deal they consider satisfactory. Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote this morning Minnesota hasn’t found the level of interest in Kepler they’re seeking and now seem likely to keep him into the season. Assuming that’s the case for the entirety of Minnesota’s outfielders, they’ll carry a group of Kepler, Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner as left-handed options, with center fielders Byron Buxton, Michael A. Taylor and Gilberto Celestino all hitting from the right side.

Manager Rocco Baldelli would be able to get some of those players into the mix at non-outfield positions, of course. The Twins don’t have a set designated hitter, leaving room to rotate a number of options as quasi-rest days. Gordon can play the infield (mostly at second base), while Gallo and Kirilloff each have plenty of first base experience.

Kirilloff is returning from a second straight season-ending wrist surgery. Buxton has a lengthy injury history and has only once reached 100 MLB games in a season, no doubt playing into Minnesota’s recent acquisition of Taylor. Celestino, Wallner, Kirilloff and Larnach each have options remaining and can be sent to the minors — which seems a stronger possibility for the first two than for either of Kirilloff or Larnach.

There’s enough flexibility that Minnesota doesn’t have to deal an outfielder simply to free up playing time. As Hayes points out, however, not making a trade could be seen as missing out on an opportunity to balance the roster in other areas. As things stand, the Twins seem likely to deploy Gallo, Buxton and Kepler as their primary outfield, with Kirilloff at first base and Gordon and/or Larnach manning DH.

Hayes writes that Gallo has expressed a willingness to move back to first base if the club desires, though a key portion of the 29-year-old’s overall value is derived from his Gold Glove-caliber corner outfield work. He hasn’t started an MLB game at first base since 2018, with teams preferring to take advantage of his athleticism and arm strength on the outfield grass.

If everyone’s healthy, Minnesota should have an elite defensive outfield. Buxton and Taylor are two of the sport’s best defenders. Kepler and Gallo are high-end corner outfielders who can cover center if needed. Kepler’s glovework had been one of the key selling points in his trade candidacy, as a lackluster center field market has left a few other clubs rolling the dice on inexperienced options at the position. The Red Sox signed Adam Duvall, who’s 34 and has started 68 career games in center, to man the position. Miami is moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center after acquiring Luis Arraez to play second base.

To the extent other teams are interested in Kepler as a possible center field fit, it doesn’t appear they’re willing to meet the Twins’ asking price. Minnesota will plug him back into right field and hope he can more closely approximate his .252/.336/.519 showing from 2019 than the roughly average .220/.314/.392 mark he’s managed over the past three seasons.

Kepler has strong plate discipline and contact skills but consistently runs one of the league’s worst averages on balls in play. A lack of line drives suggests that’s not entirely poor fortune, though he has also seen plenty of overshifts that’ll no longer be permissible given the forthcoming rule changes. Kepler is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. He’s due at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Another player who could factor into the outfield mix at some point is Royce Lewis. He won’t be available at the start of the season after tearing the ACL in his right knee last June. It was the second straight year he’d torn the ligament. The former first overall pick is expected to be ready at some point midseason. The re-signing of Carlos Correa means Lewis isn’t likely to get much shortstop run, barring a Correa injury.

Lewis recently informed reporters he started swinging again three weeks ago and has progressed to straight-line running (link via Megan Ryan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). While there’s no present path to everyday reps at one position for the 23-year-old, he noted president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine each stressed his value to the organization after they retained Correa. Lewis spoke about his excitement for the star shortstop’s return and expressed a willingness to play anywhere on the infield or outfield depending on the team’s needs once he’s healthy.