The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.
That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.
From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.
Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.
Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?
Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.
The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?
Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.
But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.
Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.
Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.
However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.
Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.
The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?
Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.
The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.
Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski
These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.
Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy
These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.
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As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.
It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.
Should we actually call this article A Pessimistic Look at the 2023 Boston Red Sox?
Not sure. It was actually overly optimistic I would think, but, I guess how you see things depends on the amount of rose tint you view this roster with.
If you think the front office did a quality job, you’d see this as pessimistic.
If you think the front office once again scrwed the pooch with its offseason moves for the 4th time in a row, then this was an overly optimistic appraisal.
GASox – I think the writer nails it in his final sentence, the potential is there for either a great season or a disastrous one. Most observers have been saying as such. A healthy Sale, Paxton, Kluber and Whitlock would be HUGE.
Add to that Yoshida possibly performing as he did in Japan and Casas having an Alonso-type rookie year, and the Sox could certainly contend.
Ok, you’re pushing it with the Casas having an Alonso-type rookie Year.
It was a typical pre-spring training review pointing out both the warts and positives. Every player on the 40 man roster has attributes and with Boston’s last place finish in 22, there certainly are negatives to write about as well Similar articles can be about most teams although with the Red Sox in 23 even a first grader could have written it.
Fever – I’m afraid at this point, while the ‘potential’ is there, I’d say the odds are roughly equal to winning PowerBall buying a single ticket.
Either your competition needs to literally be taken out of contention by physical means, or, you need an incredible amount of luck.
And I don’t think anyone in Southy has caught a leprechaun in town this winter.
Fever – Reality check – Casas having an Alonso-type rookie year? Why not Mondesi stealing 200 bases?
The pitching staff has good upside if Sale is healthy and Cora doesn’t aggravate the crap out of him. Paxton is still Paxton. Not much talent. Wacha would be a much safer bet. Kluber stepping back a half dozen years to when he was close to Sale in skill seems far fetched. Whitlock proved he’s not a starter but Houck may be the best on the pitching staff so rather than Casas doing something way beyond his skill set I think Houck will be the surprise this year. He proved he can pitch anywhere in the rotation or as a reliever/closer. He’s the best right-handed pitcher on the team including Kenley Jansen.
Yoshida is a joke. The odds of him being able to hit MLB pitchers as good as Japanese pitchers is extremely low. Plus Cora will use him incorrectly because he’s Cora. Mondesi should be the lead off hitter with Yoshida second but Cora will put either hit his favorite Kiki at lead off and Yoshida second or bat Yoshida first and clog up the bases. You can always count on Cora making the wrong choice. It’s the story of his life.
Contend? Contend for 4th place in the division? Against who? Baltimore looks much better than Boston even without great SPs until Means gets back. TB has Franco who will bounce back and Glasnow is back. Toronto and the Yankees still have far superior rosters.
Who will Boston contend with? You MUST finish fourth to make the playoffs and if you think they are finishing fourth, who are they beating? The Rutschman led Orioles or the Franco led Rays?
Stop drinking the Cool-Aid. You are better than that!!! I’m thinking top 5 pick in 2024 with a new GM. I’m the one with rose colored glasses on!! Contender? That’s just too JoeBrady-ish for me. It lacks reality but shows great loyalty to an owner and GM that tore down a great franchise when it was in it’s prime!.
Paxton is here for one reason, and one reason only: bloom gave him a ton of money last year to never throw a pitch for the red sox. Then, the player knew the BOS rotation was headed for junk status so he cashed in a guaranteed 4 mil on his player option, knowing a ST invite was likely all he would get elsewhere.
Bloom can’t cut him yet, doing so would mean admitting he NEVER should’ve been signed in the first place – if you think the guy could come back from TJ last year, why not this one? Hasn’t even had an outing to see what he had yet.
Dewey – what I don’t get is why the last place finish in 2022 is such a factor in evaluating the Sox chances this year yet other teams that have just as many questions get more of a “glass half full” look than Boston seems to. A perfect example is Texas. The top of their rotation has as many questions regarding their health as Boston does, and we’re talking about a team that finished 2022 10 games worse than Boston did. They avoided last place in their division only because Oakland was even more pathetic. Yet so many have Texas as potentially competing for a playoff spot this year despite the numerous question marks facing them. I think it’s become fashionable to crap all over Boston and be super critical of them this winter. That seems to color most assessments of the team entering this coming season.
You’re opinions are essentially the exact opposite of experts… Paxton is 10x more talented than Wacha. Yoshida is projected by pretty much every statistical projection model to succeed. Whitlock certainly has not proven he can’t start. Yeah the Alonso comp was a little over the top but the general point still stands… Casas could hit 275/30HR… will he? probably not but he has the “skills” to
Kingken – remember 2019? One bad start because Cora blew spring training gets pointed to as an excuse to blow the team up and slowly let go players. That you couldn’t build on the young andncontrolled core and instead needed to rebuild.
After that slow start they played, by winning pct, among the best in the league.
So, based on prior history, I’d say it’s fair game.
If you think the odds of the Red sox having a great year are equal to buying a single Power Ball ticket for the love of God, stay out of Vegas.
GASoxFan – you lost me here. What does the Sox slow start in 2019 have to do with their perceived strength or weakness as a team in 2023 compared to how some other similar teams are perceived?
Everyone who points to 2022 for boston which some claim was just a ‘down year’ and it shouldn’t be used to predict future performance. Well, for the last 3+ years 2019 was used for just that, and, mostly by the same crowd.
To sum it up, many bloom apologists point to the 2019 record to justify blowing up the team. I’ve seen many threads with the likes of JoeBrady and his comrades saying that the low win count and missed playoffs are why we have had the Bloom moves we have.
Well, point is, 2022 was horrible. And, to everyone who has used 2019 to justify not believing in the abilities and health of a certain group of players based on it, well, it is just as much fair game to say 2022 was equally an indicator that all these guys bloom has been bringing in should be sent out of town on a rail.
It continues to baffle me the people who look at the 2022 Sox and see it as some major indictment of Bloom and the decisions he made vs the closer to reality facts of the matter of it being a cacophony of injuries to key players coupled with a bit of underperformance from a couple who were supposed to be solid ones adding up to a bad end result. That’s not to say some of Bloom’s moves didn’t work out great, just that the notion that if not for some of them the team would have fared much better. It wasn’t his moves or lack thereof that led to the numerous injuries to the starting rotation, or the length IL stints by Story and Kiké. And it wasn’t his moves that had underperforming seasons from Bogaerts and JDM.
I’ve seen many threads with the likes of JoeBrady and his comrades saying that the low win count and missed playoffs are why we have had the Bloom moves we have.
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I’m not saying they had to blow up the team. Only that we won 84 games with the largest payroll in baseball. The decision to blow it was based on the fact that Henry wanted to get under the cap. I’d have been fine with Henry blowing thru another $250M, but I also understand that there is serious, and not mine, money involved.
And I actually agreed with the moves DD made, but it is still important to note that it was a massively overpaid team.
It continues to baffle me the people who look at the 2022 Sox and see it as some major indictment of Bloom
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2022 was primarily the result of spending $82M on Sale, JD, Eovaldi & Price, and getting 2.6 bWAR out of them. I’m not blaming DD, even though he signed them. It’s the nature of l/t contracts that they decline as the players age. But to blame Bloom for the tail-end of the DD signings is a bit far afield.
lamars – I’m not saying Casas having an Alonso-type rookie season will happen, I’m saying if it does happen the Sox could contend.
GASox – Keep in mind “contend” means an 83-79 Orioles team that finished just 3 games out of a playoff spot.
Sure the odds of most of those things happening are against them, but it’s possible and I’m trying to be optimistic here. LOL
Pulled – I didn’t say those things will happen, I said if they do happen! LOL
I’m remaining optimistic, it’s all I’ve got. ;O)
King – I can’t speak for everyone but I see Boston as a team that depleted it’s resources and I see Texas as a team that further enhanced it’s resources.
It’s not fashionable to crap on Boston it’s factual. There is no ban wagon just a bunch of amateur analysts that see a massive loss in Bogey and Vazquez not to mention some bad tradeoffs like JT for JD.
Texas added deGrom, the best pitcher in baseball. He stands like Sale except he’s better and more likely to be healthy and he has a real manager not Cora. All big pluses for Texas. They also have a better set of new additions during the time frame that Bloom was upgrading the Red Sox farm system. Their additions look to be impact players. Boston has Bello and Casas as their two big hopefuls. They have Houck too but Cora isn’t bright enough to use him effectively.
Lots of reasons to be Gung Ho on Texas and negative on Boston.
King – First, great use of cacophony!! Love it when a response is well written. But here is the primary issue with Bloom.
He started with a World Championship team and immediately shed two all-stars and a ton of money. He took that money and invested it in dumpster divers. The next year two key pick-ups (Renfroe and Schwarber) help the core 2018 finish high enough to luck out against the Yankees and TB. Luck happens but you should never expect it.
In 2022, he know Sale was back late in the year. He knew Eovaldi their #3 SP was being used as a #1 and didn’t back fill either the #1 spot or the #2 spot which had been Price’s (who he dumped). That’s irresponsible on his part and their record shows what happens when a GM is irresponsible.
Now it’s 2023 and he’s gone off the deep end with bad moves. Losing your homegrown all-star SS, your best SP, you second best SP, your all-star DH and your excellent catcher and replacing them with a foreigner who hasn’t faced MLB pitching, can’t field, can’t run and is a one-dimension DH who will be forced to play the LF thus downgrading the defense significantly. He add Kluber to replace Wacha. We’ll see if that works out. He got two experienced late inning guys after dumping his offense. That makes no sense. He added Mondesi who is his best pick-up so far but Cora wants to use his near nephew Kiki at SS despite his career .241 average.
Injuries didn’t kill the team last year, the talent level did and it has gone down since. That’s why folks looked at the 2022 team after Bloom removed so many of the key parts (a few were injured) and didn’t replace them with all the money he used in 2022. He exceeded to $20MM higher CAP!! But the only all-star acquired was Story who had a bad year and got hurt.
If Sale and Story were healthy last year, it’s hard to say if they would have finished higher than 5th but their chances were much higher than if Story and Sale were healthy in 2023.
Last point – Bloom turned both Bogaerts who had a great year and JDM into lame ducks with his handling or lack of handling of their contracts. Those actions alone hurt not just the two individuals but the clubhouse as well. JD carried the team for 2 months then suddenly dropped off like nothng that had ever happened in his career prior to last year. That’s usually a sign that there was an undisclosed injury he tried to play through. Harper and many others have done the same thing in the past. Lets see if JD struggles in 2023. If he does, then I can buy into the concept that he simply aged. If he doesn’t then it was probably an undisclosed injury and he was very much worth keeping over Yoshida at DH. Turner was a solid add despite his age because he can hit nearly as well as JD and he can play 1B in case Casas is a bust again.
JoeBrady – Your comment above is very reasonable. I didn’t feel like Bloom blew up the team as much has he simply dismantled it. His inability to sign key all-stars destroyed the continuity. His choices for free agents that bloated the payroll over the CAP in 2022 made very little strategic sense.
If you look at the $186MM that DD spent to get Price, Sale, JD, Bogey, Eovaldi and Vazquez and the 2018 active players you see that it was a basic plan of six expensive players with both farm system players and inexpensive complimentary players that filled out the roster. Most great teams have a payroll structure that is similar. The foundation is expensive. The home growns really make or break the team which is why Bogey, Devers and others really helped win the 2018 ring.
Bloom has traded away four of the six pillars built by DD and Devers has developed into a pillar so DD eventually was going to have 8 pillars but Bloom got rid of Benny. The great choices at complimentary spots like catcher made the 2018 a contender. Vazquez and Leon worked well as a tandem. Holt and Duran since Peddy got hurt worked well too. Moreland was an outstanding complimentary player since he had a gold glove to reduce Devers’ errors. Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi and E-ROD was a formidable staff and Kimbrell at $10.5MM was an excellent deal. Throw in the pick-ups of Pearce and Kinsler as more complimentary players and you have a great balance between the expensive stars and inexpensive stars.
In 2023 the expensive stars will be Sale, Story, Yoshida, Devers and Jansen (recognizing Devers HUGE AAV starts in 2024).. Sale is coming back from TJ surgery, Story is out 1/2 to all the year, Yoshida is an unknown and Devers is being paid his real worth for the last time in his career.
Bloom has spent roughly $203MM of the $230MM CAP. That is about $20MM more than DD spent to win a ring and the team is slotted for 5th place. Effective use of the money is Bloom’s issue. He buys at a price higher than the player’s value in nearly every case. He inherited Sale so we won’t count him, Story’s value is below his $23.3MM cost, Yoshida would need to hit MLB pitching as well as Japanese pitching to put up $18MM of value, Devers should exceed the $17.5MM price tag in 2023, Jansen needs over 30 saves to earn his $16MM, Turner should earn his $10.85MM if he stays healthy. Kiki won’t come close to earning his $10MM overpay. Kluber needs to lower his ERA to 3.75 and keep his WHIP near 1.2 to justify his $10MM. He too needs to stay healthy and get over 25 starts. Duvall needs to put up and OPS+ of 110 to justify his $7MM salary. Martin needs to be close to his 2022 performance for Boston to come out ahead on his $6.75MM. Much like Duvall, Verdugo needs to put up a 110 OPS+ to justify his $6.3MM. Nobody can justify the wasted $6.6MM on Hosmer and Barnes.
In the end, value versus cost was supposed to be a strength of Bloom and in fact it might be his biggest weakness.
JoeBrady – 2.6 bWAR and you count Price who Bloom chose to eat when he didn’t have to? Sale who got TJ from following Cora? JD earned his money as did Eovaldi.
You are trying to blame big ticket guys when it was the crap complimentary players that inexpensived us to death. Value vs COST. Cheap or expensive you must compare value to cost.
The expensive guys were:
Sale who was hurt thanks to Cora
JD who earned his money for 2 months then suddenly fell off (not on Bloom if it was an injury)
Bogey – he carried the team with Devers who is another big ticket guy
Nate earned his money despite being more expensive than most
Barnes didn’t , Kiki didn’t, Hill pitched better than expected but not enough to justify getting him, Wacha justified his salary, Verdugo 102 OPS+ is fair for a $4MM man. The rest of the roster made low money and contributed even less than they cost. That in itself is a big part of the dumpster diving Bloom does. Even cheap guys add up if you have enough of them. Bloom buys them in bulk but they don’t produce in bulk.
You cherry picked data to try and make your point. Look at the whole picture so your vision isn’t obscured by your point.
Fever – Sorry couldn’t tell you were on your knees next to your bed with your hands clasped together. My bad!!
Kinda creeped out right now.
I didn’t feel like Bloom blew up the team as much has he simply dismantled it.
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It wasn’t a dismantlement. He traded Betts to get under the cap. Everything else fizzled out. Of the top-10 bWAR guys from the 2018, who is still around?
Mookie Betts
J.D. Martinez
Chris Sale
Xander Bogaerts
Andrew Benintendi
David Price
Rick Porcello
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Eduardo Rodriguez
Craig Kimbrel
Three of them, and all of them would’ve been FAs. The biggest issue has always been the inability to bring young, inexpensive talent after Theo left.
king – When a team near the top of the league in payroll finishes dead last for the 2nd time in 3 years and then lets four of their five 2021 All-Stars walk without signing a major free agent … yeah they are gonna be criticized.
Jeff – I agree with all your points.
GASox – Great post! Yes 2019 was most definitely the turning point, thanks to Cora’s Club Med approach to ST and the start of the season.
We will never forget Cora saying in effect “Early season games don’t matter, we want our players well rested for September and the postseason”.
The 2019 Boston Red Sox … the most well-rested team in MLB as they sat home and watched the postseason on TV.
King – The highest paid position player on the Boston Red Sox last year and this year, and second highest paid player on the team last year and this year, put up a miserable career-worst .737 OPS when he was healthy.
You crying about his and Hernandez’s injuries is not a good look when you consider all the teams that did better than Boston despite dealing with far more devastating injuries.
Joe – Other than Porcello, who was overpaid? Name names, Joe.
You’re not calling players overpaid because of injury, are you Joe?
Even if Sale was healthy, which he wasn’t, are you saying his $15M salary was a massive overpay Joe?
Joe – The highest paid position player and second highest paid player on the team put up a .737 OPS.
Who give him the $140M contract, Joe?
Who built the cages, Joe?
You need a new hobby.
I think Yoshida will be just fine.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – Other than Porcello, who was overpaid? Name names, Joe.
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You’re not following the conversation whatsoever. I’m explaining what happened to the 2018 team in 2019 and beyond. It’s BB101, but maybe I need to break it down a little bit further.
1-Everyone signed in 2019 and prior got older.
2-We have no replacements since then except for Devers.
When older players decline, and are not replaced by younger and cheaper players, the team gets worse.
I’d take an Aaron Judge type rookie year. He also only had 27 games at the end of the year he was brought up. We all know what he did in his full rookie year.
PulledaBloom
You counted up wrong
For me turn out $136 million ( FA and Hosmer, Barnes difference; Bradley is 8 million ) + $34 million on players in an arbitration are $170 million.
A few facts are about Kike.
He was one of the most productive players in 2021 with Bogie ( 4.9 WAR ).
He was hot from middle of June 2021 to the end of season together with Devers, Renfroe (from July), Dalbec (from August), Schwarber (from middle of August).
16.10.21
K.Hernandez 13 hits have in the last a 4 playing of post-season histories, that is the record of MLB.He gave out the best season in a career in 2021.
In 2022
June 8, 2022 Boston Red Sox placed CF Enrique Hernandez on the 10-day injured list. Right hip flexor strain.
August 16, 2022 Boston Red Sox activated CF Enrique Hernandez from the 60-day injured list.
Kike skipped more than 2 months.
Kike gave 5.8 WAR of the productivity for two seasons ( $14 million ).
In this season he needs to propose 2 WAR that his contract ( $ 10 m ) was recompensed.
I agree with you that he must not be to the leadoff – hitter.
How the hell is deGrom more likely to be healthy than Sale? None of Sale’s injuries last year were directly pitching related whereas deGrom’s most certainly were.
And no, Bloom didn’t start with a world championship team. He started with a team that barely finished above .500 in 2019. The 2 “last place finishes” since he’ seen here were both seasons where numerous injuries to the starting pitching ranks forced the team into using guys as starters who were r ready for that at the major league level. Of course those teams were going to struggle. But that’s not an indictment on Bloom, no matter how much you want to try and make it one.
And no, Bloom didn’t start with a world championship team.
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The haters refuse to acknowledge.2019. In their minds, they straight from 2018 to 2020.
suit – What part of the article do you find pessimistic? Let’s discuss please.
Hey Fever. I think the author spent way more time discussing possible negative outcomes compared to possible positive outcomes. For example, saying “Whitlock and Houck…are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.” He is minimizing Whitlock and Houck’s ability to start and there was no need to say “they probably can’t be counted on yet” unless you actually are pessimistic. The last paragraph really makes it pessimistic, taking the most negative approach to each player discussed. Also, the bullpen was not discussed which is much improved and I am optimistic about. I was thinking that KD/Pulled A Bloom would love this article.
suit – Considering the subject of the article is the rotation, I don’t think it’s fair to criticize the writer for not mentioning the bullpen.
With the six younger depth options, I believe the writer is just saying they have yet to prove themselves at the ML level. Looking at their ML numbers, he’s right isn’t he?
I’m a big fan of both Houck and Whitlock, but their lack of innings in the rotation does make them unproven as starters … no? Whitlock has just 9 career starts and Houck has never pitched more than 69 innings.
I do agree with you that Sale/Kluber/Paxton/Pivetta could have been painted in a more positive light. I think the one point I disagreed with the most was Pivetta not being exciting. The guy has flirted with no-hitters multiple times, when he’s on he can be extremely dominant.
Fever: Technically the author is correct, but I don’t see why Whitlock and Houck couldn’t be effective starters for part of the season. They have both started a lot in the minors and some in the majors. I think the last paragraph really pushed me over the edge. Saying that Casas has only played 27 MLB games and Yoshida is attempting to transition to MLB is certainly not the whole story about them.
I would feel a lot better if Houck and Whitlock aren’t needed in the starting rotation. Those two guys seem to be bonafide relievers to me, and excel at being relievers. I think they have a better chance at staying healthy if they are relegated to the bullpen. If both of these guys are needed to start games, I portend the season will not go as smoothly for the Red Sox.
I think the writer’s last paragraph was about DEFENSE, not offense, and thus the question mark and negativity about both Casas and Yoshi.
Scouts agree he may have trouble staying in the OF because he is, basically, the Devers equivalent of a LF on defense thus far. Casas is a rookie, and, has NEVER had to deal with throws from someone as bad as Devers before in MiLB.
You notice they don’t question the DH, turner, or known quantity players like Devers and Verdugo since you know what you’ve got (and the defensive contributions ain’t good.
But those are factors that hurt pitchers, the subject of the article. And anyone who can hit to LF is likely to feast this year on sox pitching, as every ball that goes by Devers will be headed for slow jump no-arm yoshi, or, the monster.
SS is likely to take a hit because you’ve got a devils bargain to make – do you line up deep, to help yoshi but hurt covering for Devers, or, do you keep covering for Devers lack of range and not have the help as much for yoshi? And outside of one year, in all the time Kiki spent at short he’s put up negative metrics in most categories. So… limited as it was, it’s not inspiring.
I only hope there’s a gentleman’s agreement in place for Iglesias to sign for low money +incentives once ST starts and some guys can shift to the IL.
AITSTYW – Good call! I love accuracy.
Devers isn’t a bad arm. The concerns on defense relate to his range, and pictures of him this offseason seem to show him even more in shape, and which should help with athleticism. Also, I’m sure Casas has dealt with a bad arm somewhere across his many years of playing baseball.
Devers has had issues with throw accuracy and timing, not only range and physical conditioning.
You might want to take a closer look at Pivetta’s record. Over the past two seasons, he has made 63 starts for the Red Sox and won 19 games. In 2021 he had 13 no decisions as a starter and the team went 7-6; in 2022 he had 11 no-decisions as a starter and the team went 5-6 in those games.
In other words, the team basically went .500 when Pivetta started, regardless of whether he got a decision or not. After acquiring him in 2019, he made two starts for Boston, winning both, but the Sox averaged 9 runs per game while he pitched.
Oot- wins and loses are as much a team stat and shouldn’t get too much weight. Did the bullpen blow a lead? Did you get no run support and lose 2-0 in an otherwise solid outing?
Remember when that guy on the mets (JdG) won a cy young with only a handful of wins?
“Casas is a rookie, and, has NEVER had to deal with throws from someone as bad as Devers before in MiLB.”
Umm. What? Have you gone through all the box scores and checked out the arm of each player who every played third when Casas was at first?
It’s comments like this that make it seem like you’re being disingenuous. Why say something ridiculous like this unless you’re just trolling?
suit – I strongly disagree with bouncing Whitlock and/or Houck between the rotation and the pen. Whatever role they have to start the season, they should stick with it.
Mentally and physically it’s too risky to have them in the rotation for just half a season.
Fever: I agree that bouncing back and forth between starting and relieving is no good. I don’t think it would hurt Whitlock and/or Houck to start the year in the rotation and then move them to the pen for the rest of the year. That is a somewhat common practice to limit innings I believe. Do I have that correct? Also, I read somewhere that starting would be better for Whitlock’s hip. Does that make sense? I’m not sure. It would probably lead to more rest between outings.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – What part of the article do you find pessimistic? Let’s discuss please.
==============================
“These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. ”
Commingling Bello with Crawford & Winc is pretty ridiculous. I’m a Crawford fan and think he might develop into a #5/6 type. Winc maybe a #6/LR type. Bello is so far better that it is ridiculous to compare them.
And imho, suggesting Bello needs more development is odd. I wish the writer might have expounded on which part of his game needs more development.
And lastly, there was the over-emphasis in the last place finishes. A last-place finish with 78 wins is meaningless.
Joe – The numbers don’t lie, all of the young pitchers they mentioned have yet to prove themself on the ML level.
Yes of course Bello has far more talent than the others, but he certainly still needs to develope … at the ML level. Perhaps you are interpreting his statement as develope in the minors, I didn’t.
Okay instead of overall record, how about if the writer mentioned their divisional record? That would certainly underscore how the Red Sox were truly the worst team in the AL East last year.
Now you are responding just for the sake of responding.
I said Bello was far better than Winc and Crawford. I rated them as a ceiling of a #6 and a #5/6. I said Bello was not going to the minors to develop.
The only thing you wasted your time on was saying that Bello needs to improve at the ML level. I assume that is true for just about every prospect that ever played the game.
Yes.
Jeff Frye
February 7 at 3:54 PM ·
To all the people who say the game has changed and the old ways don’t work anymore I would like to say this.
You’re wrong!
They have been playing this game for over 150 years with virtually the same rules until Rob Manfred took over.
What has changed unfortunately is that a lot of the people working in baseball didn’t actually play the game.
What has changed is experienced baseball men are systematically being replaced by people who don’t love the game or it’s rich history.
What has changed is that many of the people working in player development have never stepped foot on a field as a professional baseball player but their job is to develop professional baseball players.
What has changed is they have created new STATS that some how are better at evaluating a players value than the STATS that have been used for a century and a half.
What has changed is that the people running the game no longer value the experience and knowledge of former professionals. The commissioner has changed the rules to make the game easier for the best players on the planet because they refuse to make adjustments because they have been convinced that the analytics suggest that they will be more productive if they keep trying to hit the ball hard in the air and that a strike out is just another out.
What has changed is that the commissioner has partnered with gambling entities and he can change the balls being used in MLB games at his discretion with no one to answer to meanwhile the games All Time hit leader is being kept out of the HOF for betting on his team to win.
What has changed is a game that used to be policed by its players and played by an unwritten code has turned into a game where players pimp warning track fly balls, flip bats, take fake selfies and act the opposite of how professionals should act.
What has changed is what was once the ultimate team sport has turned into an individual sport where everyone is only concerned about putting up numbers so they can get paid. Winning is secondary.
Lastly, what has changed is that life long baseball fans and former players can barely watch the game they have loved their entire lives!
Couldn’t have said it any better
What has changed is they have created new STATS that some how are better at evaluating a players value than the STATS that have been used for a century and a half.
========================
The stats haven’t changed much, What’s changed is:
1-We have now better video equipment to track and generate recommendations. But everyone in baseball tracked which players were susceptible to an outside curve, which pitchers didn’t have the velocity to beat you inside, etc.
2-We now have computer equipment to track what use to be done on paper. Players probably started shifting on the second game ever played. We were 10 years old playing pickup in the park, and we knew the tendency of every player and played them accordingly.
FWIW, every sport and business does this. Joe Montana reviewed every passing play to see where he was open to interceptions. B-ball teams know the expected value of every shot. And again, we did the same things 50+ years ago. There were guys that could be left wide-open at the top of the key, and guys that you wanted to try to beat you inside.
Cooperdooper7;
I see things a lot differently.
I don’t like the automatic runner on 2B in extra innings. But other than that I see Rob Manfred trying to counter the 3 outcomes that people using analytics are primarily responsible for. But the game is the game and it has balance…..
Simply put – using light bats, swinging with all your might and uppercutting the ball to get it in the air so “launch angle” is the buzzword – but that’s countered by pitching teams like the Guardians and Astros that primarily like their pitchers to work the ball low to get ahead in the count, then throw high heat which the uppercutters can’t get to.
Bill Veeck was complaining about the rule to deliver a pitch in 30 seconds not being enforced constantly in the 50’s and 60’s. Manfred is implementing even better. Yes, it’s the analytic people that cut out stealing (starting with Billy Beane and Moneyball), that accept stats which show a catcher that throws out attempted base stealers at over 30% are considered elite…..heck, with odds at 70-30 the smart organizations have been sending their players at critical points in a game for over 10 years.
I like the rule changes because it makes the running game important again. Hit-and-runs will be on the way. The best way to counter the pitchers trying to K everyone is to have a number of contract hitters in the line-up – and who cares about “exit velocity” if the man has bat control and is hitting it where fielders aren’t (see Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan….with a lot more coming).
The game is getting back on an even keel. Much of the accepted public stats quoted here are being replaced by front offices that are looking at ways to win games. This is about pairing up public stats with potential salaries. They do a very good job of it. But FO’s are hired by owner(s) to win games – not to have the best rotisserie league team….and if the FO doesn’t win games over a period of time the owner(s) get a new FO.
Cheaters
Ah yes, big cheaters. That’s why every possible member of the 2018 Dodgers who they so unjustly robbed signed with them this offseason
roiste – The Red Sox didn’t cheat in the 2018 World Series, so your point is invalid. Sorry.
Fever – No way to prove your statement. They had maybe the greatest cheater of all time at manager. That taints everything.
All we can really say is that the level of cheating could not have matched that of the Astros. Whether it happened or not, thanks to the Commissioner, that will never be known officially. Only the Astros had conclusive proof and validated statements that weren’t wirtdrawn.
There was not one single instance of cheating by the 2018 Red Sox uncovered by MLB during their investigation. They admitted this in their report when they said they have a “factual dispute”, “largely have no direct evidence” and “no written record, recording or other contemporaneous evidence of the underlying events”. If there was any evidence, the facts would not be in dispute. The conclusion of cheating “on at least some occasions” was clearly based on speculation as MLB’s investigation failed to document a single occasion of cheating by any means. This was very unfair to the Red Sox and Red Sox fans. Reporters then wrote articles focusing on the conclusion, but not the (lack of) evidence. I recommend people read MLB’s report on the 2018 Red Sox which is still available on MLB.com. It also looks like Evan Drellich’s new book has no evidence.
There is some irony in the Red Sox being called “Cheaters” by someone with a Biggio moniker. If not for Houston’s cheating, the Sox might have had 5 World Series champions this century.
Ketch – You are absolutely right, I just wrote about that a few days ago. People who talk about how the Astros cheated their way to postseason victories over the Yankees and Dodgers seem to have forgot they also cheated their way past the Red Sox in the 2017 ALDS.
Chris Sale was runnerup for Cy Young, led the league in FIP and led the league in Strikeouts that year, but the Astros scored 9 runs in 9 innings against him that series … no question he would have been far more effective if Cora’s Astros hadn’t cheated.
Which makes me think Sale probably can’t stand Cora, but keeps it hidden because Cora is his manager.
Bloom and his staff are handling pitchers like the Rays do…..
Most years the Rays don’t know who their “Ace” is going into the season. They have a bunch of “volatile” pitchers that can throw 3-7 innings and some more that can throw 1-2 innings….and more pitchers in the high minors.
Roles change as the season progresses. And every year due primarily to their coaching they have good pitching.
It seems the Orioles are doing a similar thing.
Beats getting stuck with excessive salaries for pitchers that suddenly don’t have it (but teams have to run them out there because of the money they’re being paid) or ones that get injured.
Price, Kazmir, Snell, Archer, and McClanahan are all examples of aces that the Rays have relied on over the years. They weren’t big money contracts because they were homegrown, but the idea that they have a bunch of “volitile” pitchers year after year doesn’t ring true. They have a pipeline of prospects and make great trades.
Samuel – Bloom isn’t handling the pitchers like the Rays. He’s mishandled the pitchers along with Cora the self proclaimed pitching expert.
Has Bloom tried to create a non-hierarchy starting rotation? No. There is no indication of that at all. He’s done things so badly it’s really hard to tell what he was thinking. It sure seems to me that Nate was the #1 SP on the team since Sale got hurt and Price was given away. He was acquired by DD to be the #3 SP but Bloom didn’t bother replacing the #1 or #2 spots with elite pitchers because he was dumpster diving for miracles he could take full credit for if they blossomed. Needless to say, they didn’t!!
The Orioles and TB have one thing in common and that is they don’t acquire expensive elite pitchers. So if are suggesting the Orioles are mimicking TB you are wrong. The ownership has maintained a low payroll so lots of inexpensive starters are on the Oriole roster which creates a look similar to TB but the process isn’t anything similar. TB is a cheap franchise and Baltimore is a rebuilding franchise.
Your last paragraph makes it very clear just how little you understand about the job of GM. GM’s don’t grab crap starters so they won’t be a disappointed!! Bloom grabs crap starters because he has no idea how to be a successful GM in a Big Market. You don’t hire Andy Griffith to be the head of the NY Police Department.
Holden Bases;
Most of those pitchers were not Aces when they showed up in Spring Training. They became Aces during a year and stayed for a bit more. And all were traded at the first sign of degradation.
They were all high-end prospects, Samuel. None of them shocked us with their talent. And they weren’t all traded when they showed signs of slowing; Price, for example, was still peak, but too expensive. Name for me the Red Sox starters listed in this article that they plan to ride and trade…
Holden Bases;
Aces are guy that are Aces for years. A teams #1 pitcher is not necessarily an Ace. In fact, most MLB teams don’t have Aces….some have more than one.
Name I name the Red Sox “Ace”?
I think you need to reread what I wrote and not misrepresent it.
Name I name a Red Sox ace? What?
If it helps, I define a #1 as one the consistently top-30 pitchers in baseball. And as a term of art, the top-15 of those top-30 are aces.
Losing Wacha is a lost.
Nah. Wacha had a good ERA last year but his peripheral stats were not great, and watching the team he looked a lot less dominant in the second half of the year. Any team who signs him will likely be overpaying for a year he won’t repeat
The Sox should have gotten a better addition than Kluber IMO, but Wacha wasn’t it
Well, he was a good innings eater had a record of 11-4 I’m pretty sure, and had a near 850 win percentage.
Innings eater? Wacha? He pitched 127 innings last year. Thats not an innings eater. Pivetta is an innings eater.
Why do last years “peripherals” not effect last years ERA? His “peripherals” are going to be different this year, just like his ERA.
ERA can involve a lot of randomness and luck in a given year. Peripheral stats like K and walk rates, swinging strike percentage, and hard contact rates provide better predictions of how guys will perform moving forward than just ERA. Wacha was good at avoiding walks last year, but got very few whiffs and strikeouts, and also allowed a significant amount of hard contact. That suggests his good ERA benefitted from a lot of luck, and any team paying him for his future performance should have doubts about him replicating it
He remains unsigned. All is not lost…yet.
He wants 30/2, going to be hard to get
Bello starting the year at AAA?? Unlikely. Did you watch the team or just read statistics?? Bello started rough but finished the season with a 2.59 ear over his final 6 starts. He visibly was a different pitcher with different confidence. They would be doing him a disservice demoting him. That would be like saying Casas is staring the year at AAA because of his BA. Watch the games before you write a disparaging article.
Nah it was just written by someone who understands maximizing depth and control. Ridiculous take, if that’s your level of understanding of the game you shouldn’t be throwing stones
Level of understanding? Condescending much? Quoting 3 pitchers ERA and stating that they made their MLB debuts is not much of an assessment of the situation. Bello was brought up way to early, struggled, made adjustments, and finished the year as a different and more developed pitcher. He should start the year in the rotation IMO. I feel sending him to AAA could lead to a regression in development now that he has proven he has the ability to make adjustments which is what you want to see from any minor leaguer. But insulting someone doesn’t exactly validate the article or you as anything other than a troll. You think what someone is saying is wrong, provide cogent insight.
Should I quote 6 starts as a sample and use that as my proof point? Lol
This isn’t a question of ability or even performance. Every year younger players with options start the year in AAA to give veterans that would otherwise be lost to waivers an extended look. Red Sox aren’t exactly stacked with major league depth and have multiple injury risks, they are going try to keep as much depth as possible
Now specific to Bello, his work load last year jumped 50% from the previous year. Given his frame they will probably be cautious with his workload and starting the year in AAA would satisfy that. Again I really don’t know, I don’t care but attacking the guy in your comment like it’s some slam dunk is ridiculous.
It will all come down to who does well in spring training and who is healthy. Regardless of how he finished last year, if he gets lit up in the spring, he has options, he won’t make the team.
Red sox have an off day on March 31… they dont get a second off day in 2023 until May 8th.
That’s too long for a 5 man rotation, ESPECIALLY for these 5 men.
They have an off day on 4/7 and 4/27. Try looking at the schedule.
I did, in list format t-bagger. I’m guessing your name goes towards what you like to recieve.
Sooooooo sorry to offend your high and mightiness. I will endeavor to make sure everything you ever look at and post is impeccably 100% correct from here on out and act like a d-bag back to you when it’s not
Meanwhile, to the point in question, 20 days straight is still a lot to ask a bunch of injury recovering types fresh out of ST, and, the rest premise holds.
You’re taking the wrong side here, are you the authors mother?
Soxfan1 – Seriously? Why behave so childishly?
Dusty’s points are good ones. Bello isn’t proven. At 19 he threw 67 innings and dominated ROK hitters. At 20 he got moved up to A ball threw 117.2 innigns and got rocked severely. Thanks to COVID he missed the entire next year and came back at 22 and threw 31.2 innings at Hi-A. He had 15 very good starts then got promoted to AA and once again got rocked. Once again a bad ERA and WHIP.
So then, at age 23, with having throw roughly 100 innings in 2 of the last 3 years, he went to AA and dominated for 7 starts. He then got promoted to AAA for 10 starts and did well so Boston brought him up because Bloom was desperate for pitching. He got rocked like he had twice before except this time he had 96 innings under his belt at the minor league level and added 57 more at the MLB level. He did, however, pitch better at the end then the beginning of 2022 at the MLB level.
You mentioned his last six starts withtout focusing on the quality of the opponents. Bello’s claim to fame happened in two Yankee starts where he pitched well. Funny for all you Devers fans, go look up the Yankee loss on Sept 14. It’s a perfect example of why Devers’ errors were so low. The scorekeeper didn’t charge him with a missed pop-up in the fourth inning. It just says single to 3B (pop fly to deep 3B). hahaha That’s called a misplay if it’s not an error but should have been an out. Fire the score keeper for cheating. Probably a relative of Cora!!
Anyway, Bello dodged a bullet in the 4th when he got the guy after the missed pop-up by Devers. In the 5th, the Red Sox make 2 errors and give up three unearned runs. Great game by Bello but a loss to the Yankees. This game shows great upside. He also got hit hard by TOR and BAL during that 6 game stretch you mentioned so it wasn’t all roses.
So Bello has promise but Boston has 3 expensive vets to head up their pitching staff, they have Houck and then they have Whitlock who has not pitched well as a starter but has been excellent at being the stress inning guy. Cora will likely make the wrong choice and use Whitlock as a starter rather than Bello. Bello is the best of the young ones so I straddle the fence between Billy and Dusty. I say put Whitlock as the stress reliever and Bello as the 5th starter recognizing that he’s never thrown over 150 innings in a season so he may need an occasional day off from the rotation (skipped start every 5 starts).
Bello has the stuff to be on the opening day roster but Cora doesn’t have the smarts to move Whitlock to what he does best.
As I’ve said no novel you write will ever allow me to accept your clearly biased takes. Glad the mute button is here!
He also had a respectful FIP despite having a high ERA. I also see him in the rotation.
Agree. There’s about a 90% chance Bello starts the year in the rotation, which is probably higher than any other pitcher on the staff .
SJKin – Sorry but if you think there’s a 90% chance Bello bumps any of Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Kluber or Whitlock to start the season (assuming all are healthy) then you will be severely disappointed.
And if you are thinking there will be a 6-man rotation, I’d say that’s unlikely because it would mean one less reliever for Cora to play with … and we all know how much he loves making pitching changes.
Yeah, starting a season with only a 5 man rotation when 3 of your starters are coming back from injury is a real smart move. The Red Sox will 100000000000000% start the season with a 6 man rotation.
There’s two ways I see the rotation unfolding –
1) an ‘elder statesman’ of the group hurts himself in ST, at which point a slot opens up. At that point whichever of bello/winc/craw have the best ST slide into a spot. All 3 have 2 options remaining, so, long term ramifications in future years aren’t an issue burning one to start the year.
2) Whitlock goes to the ‘pen because either he just isn’t effective as a SP in ST, OR, one of the ‘old foggies’ in the back of the BP goes down hurt. Whitlock is too good to go to AAA to learn to start, that’s not happening. To learn what he can grow into as a SP is to send him out at the MLB level.
I think one of Houck/Whitlock wind up in the 5th starter slot based on ST performance as a SP, and the other dukes it out with the kids to open a 6-man rotation on the year, if for no other reason how long the split between the first offday (second game) and the second off day (over a month later.) That schedule is the key, and, why I see an opening for bello at the mlb-level.
Most teams have too many off days early to start with a six man.
I think if everyone is healthy (a big if) then Bello starts and either Whitlock or Pivetta goes to the pen. I think Houck is in the bullpen unless multiple starters go down.
whichever of bello/winc/craw have the best ST slide into a spot.
====================
I’d be very surprised if Bello wasn’t automatically part of our rotation, and modestly surprised if he wasn’t our #2.
A 6-man rotation idea has merit. I’d prefer a 5-man, with Whitlock & Houck in the BP, but starting with 6 and morphing into a 5, if/when everyone has proven health and ability, might work.
And I doubt Winc or Crawford make the opening day roster unless someone is injured. Our worst BP piece might be Brasier of Joely, and neither Winc nor Crawford are nearly as good.
Joe – the other thing I see as an option outside of the 6-man rotation until may is to have a bit of musical chair going on in the 26th roster spot.
Maybe every 11th day for 3 cycles through you call up someone from AAA to make a spot start, send them back down, and call up a reliever again.
Doing that you’d need a spare reliever to rotate up/down due to the roster rules u less there was an ‘injury’ to shorten up times a bit, but, really it goes either way.
Biggest benefit of the 6th man is reducing the innings and count start totals for the second half with all the issues and lack of build-up these guys have had.
Kev – I’m pretty sure those three starters will be pulled after just 5 innings, or sometimes after 6 innings, quite often. Bello may get some spot starts in April, but there’s no reason to go to a 6-man rotation and the Sox don’t have the depth for it anyway.
Bello has options. Sale, Paxton, Pivetta and Kluber do not.
Ketch – Exactly! I think Bello will slide into the starting rotation if/when one of the starters gets injured.
Yeah, I thought it was real weird to lump Bello in with Winckowski and Crawford. Bello had a great FIP and looked like a big league pitcher in his last few starts, while those other two guys were just thoroughly overmatched in the show. Definitely a very surface-level analysis
You ask if he watched games or just read statistics. Then you proceed to give us a small-sample-size statistic. Okay.
As a pessimistic Yankees fan I expect this group to do just fine. There are questions but there’s a fair amount of talent as well.
Bello pitched well towards the end of the season last year! This could be a good staff!
Bryan Bello had a respectable FIP even though his ERA was high. I can see him in the rotation this year. If everyone pans out and is successful (I know that is a huge “if”), then Pivetta should be in the bullpen if the Whitlock and Houck experiments work out.
Bello was legendary outside his first two starts which were rough
unfortunately he was a rushed because of the injuries to the staff last year. I think what people saw in the second half is more indicative what he can be
A rotation fronted by Sale/Kluber/Paxton would be the best in the league in 2017. Hard to see even two of the three approaching that level again though this year.
True but that is what everyone said about the Giants hitters going into 2021….including me….
I was like no way do all of their 33+ ages hitters have career type years in the same season but they did….
So you never know….though pitching is a different animal with arm injuries etc….so it’s not likely they all stay healthy and have good years….
But, look at this list:
Sale 34; Paxton 34; Kluber 37; Bleier 36; Brasier 36; Martin 37; Jansen 37;
These are all 40 man guys for boston this season. That’s a lot of age, injuries, and mileage on various arms.
Not only does a 33yr old have a better chance of a rebound year as a position guy than pitcher, but, these guys are even older than that. And of the starters, sale and paxton have been injured for years, and, kluber doesn’t even hit 89mph avg on his fastball anymore compared to 95mph when he was a front end type. Age+continuing decline in pitch speed doesn’t seem like the best recipe either.
GASoxFan
Jansen 35 Age.
Boston Red Sox 2004:
Pitchers:
Schilling 37; P.Martinez 32; T.Wakefield 38; D.Lowe 31; Timlin 37; Lescanic 36;
M.Myers 35; A.Hembree 34; Foulke 32; R.Mendoza 32
I think that age a not main argument a value has endurance and propensity to the traumas.
Shilling, Wakefield, Timlin played 40+ yrs.
Age very individual factor and it is impossible to pound all players in the age-related scopes.
If any of Pedro Martinez can rub off on Bello the kid will be fine. I would like to see what Mata can do as well. Counting on Sale or Paxton is probably foolish but if either can bounce back thats a plus and both bouncing back would be a huge bonus
Sale broke his wrist falling off a bicycle. Hahaha! Hilarious that people believe this.
mike – I don’t buy Sale’s story either, especially with his history of lying (belly button ring hoax) and his history of raging (destroying TV’s in the dugout).
Not sure volatile is the right word..
Maybe nerve-racking
How do you assemble a rotation that risky? No one in the top 3 may pitch over 100 innings, let alone be effective. Kluber is solid I guess but aged a lot and is a 5 inning mediocre guy like Rich Hill. Pivetta and Bello are wildly inconsistent. At least they have some depth I suppose.
Credit to the writer for slipping the word capricious in there. I don’t believe I’d ever heard it before
Ronk – I think this is one of his better articles, and his take that this could be a miracle season or a disastrous season is accurate and shared by many observers.
As I said a few days ago, if several things happen – mostly good health for many key players – they could certainly contend for a playoff spot.
Fever, would you agree though that it will TAKE a miracle season to not wind up a disastrous one (spending up to the CBT and finishing last in the division?)
GA – Let me speak for Fever. YES. Emphatically YES.
I don’t believe there is enough luck in the world to take this team from a top five pick in the 2024 draft to the playoffs!!!
It’s going to be a long summer in Boston.
EGAD!!!!….the medical bills alone for that staff, may push the Red Sox over the luxury tax threshold.
Always true of the Yankees as well.
the Yankees are already over the threshold Uduh,… I mean Utah.
Unless his spring is awful, Bello will be in the starting rotation from April.
How many times can a writer say “error bars,” whatever those are?
Stick a fork in Crawford.
So the Red Sox rotation, not having thrown a pitch, is volatile because Darragh McDonald says so over his jr. high lunch table?. All MLB pitching is volatile, like the stock market as are all MLB pitchers. In one year and out the next.
It’s not 2018 anymore. This is a mix of oft-injured of late, over-the-hill, and untested arms.
Most non-teardown rebuild clubs ride into the year with maybe one bounceback injured vet competing with a youngster. Or, a youngster who is backed up by a mediocre journeyman penciled for long relief.
Aside from pivetta who is a back-of-rotation arm in the porcello mold but lacking the IP, EVERY SP arm for the red sox is a guy who would either be a ST-invite guy, or, a rebound depth signing on a contending club. The rest of the youngsters might get a look in the 5sp slot.
This is worse than a patchwork job at best. Could it work? Stranger things have happened. Is there any reasonable belief that it should turn out well? Just hopes and prayers, not by the data.
GA – Very well put. On paper, this team sucks. No hitting except for Devers, no fielding, no base running except for a frequently hurt Mondesi, no pitching except for guys coming off TJ and youngsters and a bullpen that takes Geritol.
Winning sometimes happens when it shouldn’t like in 2021 but that year the old 2018 guys carried them. Look around, Bloom got rid of all of them except Devers and Sale. Yes, if both have good years the team finishes closer to 4th in the division but you still have guys like kiki hernandez, arroyo, McGuire and Duvall in your starting line-up. Those are not players that carry a team to a playoff spot. If Mondesi can join Sale and Devers by having a great year that would help enormously but I’m not sure it would get them anything other than 5th in the division. It’s going to take massive injuries on other AL East teams for Boston to have a shot at a playoff spot by finishing fourth in the division.
PulledaBloom
I think that without Kike, Renfroe, Whitlock, Pivetta, Schwarber, Ottavino, Iglesias, Arroyo – Red Sox wouldn’t obtain a hit in a play-off 2021.
PulledaBloom
2021
Kike – 4.9 WAR
Whitlock – 2.9 WAR
Pivetta – 2.6 WAR
Renfroe – 2.3 WAR
Arroyo – 1.5 WAR ( 181 PA )
Schwarber – 1.3 WAR ( 168 PA for Boston )
Ottavino – 0.8 WAR
Iglesias – 0.4 WAR ( 64 PA for Boston )
16.3 WAR – $ 22.6 million
2021
Sawamura – (0.8 WAR)
Perez – (0.5 WAR)
Robles – (0.5 WAR 25 IP )
Richards – (0.3 WAR)
Plawecki – (0.2 WAR ( 173 PA )
T.Shaw – ( -0.1 WAR 48 PA for Boston )
A.Davis – ( -0.1 WAR 16 IP for Boston )
D.Santana – ( -0.3 WAR 127 PA )
M.Gonzalez – ( -0.5 WAR 271 PA for Boston )
M.Andriese – ( -0.6 WAR 37.1 IP for Boston )
Cordero – ( -0.7 WAR 136 PA )
0.0 WAR – $ 26 million
PulledaBloom
2021 Boston Red Sox
Kike – 4.9 WAR
Whitlock – 2.9 WAR
Pivetta – 2.6 WAR
Verdugo – 2.2 WAR
Renfroe – 2.3 WAR
Arroyo – 1.5 WAR ( 181 PA )
Schwarber – 1.3 WAR ( 168 PA for Boston )
Ottavino – 0.8 WAR
Iglesias – 0.4 WAR ( 64 PA for Boston )
Sawamura – (0.8 WAR)
Perez – (0.5 WAR)
Robles – (0.5 WAR 25 IP )
Richards – (0.3 WAR)
Plawecki – (0.2 WAR ( 173 PA )
T.Shaw – ( -0.1 WAR 48 PA for Boston )
A.Davis – ( -0.1 WAR 16 IP for Boston )
D.Santana – ( -0.3 WAR 127 PA )
M.Gonzalez – ( -0.5 WAR 271 PA for Boston )
M.Andriese – ( -0.6 WAR 37.1 IP for Boston )
Cordero – ( -0.7 WAR 136 PA )
+18.5 WAR – $ 49.2 milion+ $ 2.8 m change Benny = $ 52 m spending of Bloom on FA and exchange 2021
Bogie – I mean no disrespect but when a player hits
.250 with a OBP of .337 a SLG of .449 and OPS of .786 and OPS+ of 108
Don’t you have to question WAR if it was 4.9. Isn’t this a perfect indictment to using WAR for ANYTHING? To add insult to injury the guy only played 134 games. .250 AVERAGE (.239 in September/October).
One last point that invalidates what you wrote. The defensive side of WAR has long been questioned and if you look at the offensive side of WAR for the 2021 Red Sox you’ll see Kiki at 3.2 behind Bogey and Devers and slightly ahead of JD.
Now compare JD to Kiki to prove how inaccurate oWAR is:
Average – JD .286 Kiki .250
OBP – JD .349 Kiki .337
SLG – JD .518 Kiki .449
OPS – JD .867 Kiki .786
OPS+ – JD 128 Kiki 108
Did Kiki add to his value on defense? Again, it depends on what you believe in. I prefer facts so his below league average fielding percentage speaks volumes to his defense being slightly below the norm. dWAR gave him a 2.1 which is absolutely absurd considering the number of errors he made.
So if you are suggesting in any way that Bloom did a great job in 2021 gathering complimentary players to the great core group he started with I’d have to argue with you that nothing in the baseball records supports your argument. He screwed the pooch when it comes to filling out a team that had a great core leftover from DD.
I only objected on your post, that this was clean success.
Renfroe, Kike, Schwarber, Ottavino, Pivetta, Arroyo, Whitlock – can’t be a clean success 7 players.
Other question, why didn’t Bloom carry Renfroe, Schwarber, Ottavino in 2022 and BP didn’t improve?
The loss of Renfroe at the end of 2021 resulted in the cascade of problems in outfield, as in 2022,so in 2023 first of all in defence.
Other than being intentionally negative (mostly on Bello), it was an interesting article. The position players are likely to be quite a bit better than he makes them out to be, imo, but this is a high-variance rotation. I’d still prefer one more SP, even if not a particularly good one. I doubt we get 850 IPs from the current rotation, and anything more than one injury at a time will be tough to deal with.
Sounds like the Marlins are in love with the Casas kid. That’ll solve their SP problems. First basemen are easier to find than quality SP’s.
I like having my infield locked up for another 5-straight years, but it would be short-sighted to not listen. You always want to trade with someone that has surpluses of what we need. Make me an offer I can’t refuse.
I think the ballot schedule will come in to play as well, but then again the Yankees rays and Orioles all played six less divisional games as well
I think the balanced schedule will come in to play as well, but then again the Yankees rays Toronto and Orioles all play six less divisional games as well
overall good stuff… but I think it’s a MASSIVE oversight to group Bello in with the other ‘minor leaguers needing more time’ Bello is viewed as a potential above average, maybe not ace but 2/3 ML SP who is ML ready. Sure he had a rough start to his debut last year but then settled down and pitched to a 2.59 ERA in his final 6 starts. Views around Boston are he’s got a VERY good chance to break camp in the rotation and has possibly the highest upside of the bunch (Sale and Whitlock could also be seen as highest upside depending on what criteria you’re using)
That why I think the writer was being intentionally negative. If one wants to suggest that Bello is not #2 material, that’s fine. To suggest he is in anyway similar to Winc and Crawford really sounds like he has an ax to grind.
The top 3 In their prime would be outstanding
Bello had a 2.94 FIP.