The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.
That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.
From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.
Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.
Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?
Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.
The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?
Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.
But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.
Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.
Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.
However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.
Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.
The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?
Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.
The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.
Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski
These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.
Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy
These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.
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As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.
It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.
Should we actually call this article A Pessimistic Look at the 2023 Boston Red Sox?
Cheaters
Ah yes, big cheaters. That’s why every possible member of the 2018 Dodgers who they so unjustly robbed signed with them this offseason
roiste – The Red Sox didn’t cheat in the 2018 World Series, so your point is invalid. Sorry.
Fever – No way to prove your statement. They had maybe the greatest cheater of all time at manager. That taints everything.
All we can really say is that the level of cheating could not have matched that of the Astros. Whether it happened or not, thanks to the Commissioner, that will never be known officially. Only the Astros had conclusive proof and validated statements that weren’t wirtdrawn.
There was not one single instance of cheating by the 2018 Red Sox uncovered by MLB during their investigation. They admitted this in their report when they said they have a “factual dispute”, “largely have no direct evidence” and “no written record, recording or other contemporaneous evidence of the underlying events”. If there was any evidence, the facts would not be in dispute. The conclusion of cheating “on at least some occasions” was clearly based on speculation as MLB’s investigation failed to document a single occasion of cheating by any means. This was very unfair to the Red Sox and Red Sox fans. Reporters then wrote articles focusing on the conclusion, but not the (lack of) evidence. I recommend people read MLB’s report on the 2018 Red Sox which is still available on MLB.com. It also looks like Evan Drellich’s new book has no evidence.
There is some irony in the Red Sox being called “Cheaters” by someone with a Biggio moniker. If not for Houston’s cheating, the Sox might have had 5 World Series champions this century.
Ketch – You are absolutely right, I just wrote about that a few days ago. People who talk about how the Astros cheated their way to postseason victories over the Yankees and Dodgers seem to have forgot they also cheated their way past the Red Sox in the 2017 ALDS.
Chris Sale was runnerup for Cy Young, led the league in FIP and led the league in Strikeouts that year, but the Astros scored 9 runs in 9 innings against him that series … no question he would have been far more effective if Cora’s Astros hadn’t cheated.
Which makes me think Sale probably can’t stand Cora, but keeps it hidden because Cora is his manager.
Bloom and his staff are handling pitchers like the Rays do…..
Most years the Rays don’t know who their “Ace” is going into the season. They have a bunch of “volatile” pitchers that can throw 3-7 innings and some more that can throw 1-2 innings….and more pitchers in the high minors.
Roles change as the season progresses. And every year due primarily to their coaching they have good pitching.
It seems the Orioles are doing a similar thing.
Beats getting stuck with excessive salaries for pitchers that suddenly don’t have it (but teams have to run them out there because of the money they’re being paid) or ones that get injured.
Price, Kazmir, Snell, Archer, and McClanahan are all examples of aces that the Rays have relied on over the years. They weren’t big money contracts because they were homegrown, but the idea that they have a bunch of “volitile” pitchers year after year doesn’t ring true. They have a pipeline of prospects and make great trades.
Samuel – Bloom isn’t handling the pitchers like the Rays. He’s mishandled the pitchers along with Cora the self proclaimed pitching expert.
Has Bloom tried to create a non-hierarchy starting rotation? No. There is no indication of that at all. He’s done things so badly it’s really hard to tell what he was thinking. It sure seems to me that Nate was the #1 SP on the team since Sale got hurt and Price was given away. He was acquired by DD to be the #3 SP but Bloom didn’t bother replacing the #1 or #2 spots with elite pitchers because he was dumpster diving for miracles he could take full credit for if they blossomed. Needless to say, they didn’t!!
The Orioles and TB have one thing in common and that is they don’t acquire expensive elite pitchers. So if are suggesting the Orioles are mimicking TB you are wrong. The ownership has maintained a low payroll so lots of inexpensive starters are on the Oriole roster which creates a look similar to TB but the process isn’t anything similar. TB is a cheap franchise and Baltimore is a rebuilding franchise.
Your last paragraph makes it very clear just how little you understand about the job of GM. GM’s don’t grab crap starters so they won’t be a disappointed!! Bloom grabs crap starters because he has no idea how to be a successful GM in a Big Market. You don’t hire Andy Griffith to be the head of the NY Police Department.
Holden Bases;
Most of those pitchers were not Aces when they showed up in Spring Training. They became Aces during a year and stayed for a bit more. And all were traded at the first sign of degradation.
They were all high-end prospects, Samuel. None of them shocked us with their talent. And they weren’t all traded when they showed signs of slowing; Price, for example, was still peak, but too expensive. Name for me the Red Sox starters listed in this article that they plan to ride and trade…
Holden Bases;
Aces are guy that are Aces for years. A teams #1 pitcher is not necessarily an Ace. In fact, most MLB teams don’t have Aces….some have more than one.
Name I name the Red Sox “Ace”?
I think you need to reread what I wrote and not misrepresent it.
Name I name a Red Sox ace? What?
If it helps, I define a #1 as one the consistently top-30 pitchers in baseball. And as a term of art, the top-15 of those top-30 are aces.
Losing Wacha is a lost.
Nah. Wacha had a good ERA last year but his peripheral stats were not great, and watching the team he looked a lot less dominant in the second half of the year. Any team who signs him will likely be overpaying for a year he won’t repeat
The Sox should have gotten a better addition than Kluber IMO, but Wacha wasn’t it
Well, he was a good innings eater had a record of 11-4 I’m pretty sure, and had a near 850 win percentage.
Innings eater? Wacha? He pitched 127 innings last year. Thats not an innings eater. Pivetta is an innings eater.
Why do last years “peripherals” not effect last years ERA? His “peripherals” are going to be different this year, just like his ERA.
ERA can involve a lot of randomness and luck in a given year. Peripheral stats like K and walk rates, swinging strike percentage, and hard contact rates provide better predictions of how guys will perform moving forward than just ERA. Wacha was good at avoiding walks last year, but got very few whiffs and strikeouts, and also allowed a significant amount of hard contact. That suggests his good ERA benefitted from a lot of luck, and any team paying him for his future performance should have doubts about him replicating it
He remains unsigned. All is not lost…yet.
He wants 30/2, going to be hard to get
Bello starting the year at AAA?? Unlikely. Did you watch the team or just read statistics?? Bello started rough but finished the season with a 2.59 ear over his final 6 starts. He visibly was a different pitcher with different confidence. They would be doing him a disservice demoting him. That would be like saying Casas is staring the year at AAA because of his BA. Watch the games before you write a disparaging article.
You ask if he watched games or just read statistics. Then you proceed to give us a small-sample-size statistic. Okay.
As a pessimistic Yankees fan I expect this group to do just fine. There are questions but there’s a fair amount of talent as well.
Bello pitched well towards the end of the season last year! This could be a good staff!
Bryan Bello had a respectable FIP even though his ERA was high. I can see him in the rotation this year. If everyone pans out and is successful (I know that is a huge “if”), then Pivetta should be in the bullpen if the Whitlock and Houck experiments work out.
Bello was legendary outside his first two starts which were rough
unfortunately he was a rushed because of the injuries to the staff last year. I think what people saw in the second half is more indicative what he can be
A rotation fronted by Sale/Kluber/Paxton would be the best in the league in 2017. Hard to see even two of the three approaching that level again though this year.
True but that is what everyone said about the Giants hitters going into 2021….including me….
I was like no way do all of their 33+ ages hitters have career type years in the same season but they did….
So you never know….though pitching is a different animal with arm injuries etc….so it’s not likely they all stay healthy and have good years….
But, look at this list:
Sale 34; Paxton 34; Kluber 37; Bleier 36; Brasier 36; Martin 37; Jansen 37;
These are all 40 man guys for boston this season. That’s a lot of age, injuries, and mileage on various arms.
Not only does a 33yr old have a better chance of a rebound year as a position guy than pitcher, but, these guys are even older than that. And of the starters, sale and paxton have been injured for years, and, kluber doesn’t even hit 89mph avg on his fastball anymore compared to 95mph when he was a front end type. Age+continuing decline in pitch speed doesn’t seem like the best recipe either.
GASoxFan
Jansen 35 Age.
Boston Red Sox 2004:
Pitchers:
Schilling 37; P.Martinez 32; T.Wakefield 38; D.Lowe 31; Timlin 37; Lescanic 36;
M.Myers 35; A.Hembree 34; Foulke 32; R.Mendoza 32
I think that age a not main argument a value has endurance and propensity to the traumas.
Shilling, Wakefield, Timlin played 40+ yrs.
Age very individual factor and it is impossible to pound all players in the age-related scopes.
If any of Pedro Martinez can rub off on Bello the kid will be fine. I would like to see what Mata can do as well. Counting on Sale or Paxton is probably foolish but if either can bounce back thats a plus and both bouncing back would be a huge bonus
Sale broke his wrist falling off a bicycle. Hahaha! Hilarious that people believe this.
mike – I don’t buy Sale’s story either, especially with his history of lying (belly button ring hoax) and his history of raging (destroying TV’s in the dugout).
Not sure volatile is the right word..
Maybe nerve-racking
How do you assemble a rotation that risky? No one in the top 3 may pitch over 100 innings, let alone be effective. Kluber is solid I guess but aged a lot and is a 5 inning mediocre guy like Rich Hill. Pivetta and Bello are wildly inconsistent. At least they have some depth I suppose.
Credit to the writer for slipping the word capricious in there. I don’t believe I’d ever heard it before
Ronk – I think this is one of his better articles, and his take that this could be a miracle season or a disastrous season is accurate and shared by many observers.
As I said a few days ago, if several things happen – mostly good health for many key players – they could certainly contend for a playoff spot.
Fever, would you agree though that it will TAKE a miracle season to not wind up a disastrous one (spending up to the CBT and finishing last in the division?)
GA – Let me speak for Fever. YES. Emphatically YES.
I don’t believe there is enough luck in the world to take this team from a top five pick in the 2024 draft to the playoffs!!!
It’s going to be a long summer in Boston.
EGAD!!!!….the medical bills alone for that staff, may push the Red Sox over the luxury tax threshold.
Always true of the Yankees as well.
the Yankees are already over the threshold Uduh,… I mean Utah.
Unless his spring is awful, Bello will be in the starting rotation from April.
How many times can a writer say “error bars,” whatever those are?
Stick a fork in Crawford.
So the Red Sox rotation, not having thrown a pitch, is volatile because Darragh McDonald says so over his jr. high lunch table?. All MLB pitching is volatile, like the stock market as are all MLB pitchers. In one year and out the next.
It’s not 2018 anymore. This is a mix of oft-injured of late, over-the-hill, and untested arms.
Most non-teardown rebuild clubs ride into the year with maybe one bounceback injured vet competing with a youngster. Or, a youngster who is backed up by a mediocre journeyman penciled for long relief.
Aside from pivetta who is a back-of-rotation arm in the porcello mold but lacking the IP, EVERY SP arm for the red sox is a guy who would either be a ST-invite guy, or, a rebound depth signing on a contending club. The rest of the youngsters might get a look in the 5sp slot.
This is worse than a patchwork job at best. Could it work? Stranger things have happened. Is there any reasonable belief that it should turn out well? Just hopes and prayers, not by the data.
GA – Very well put. On paper, this team sucks. No hitting except for Devers, no fielding, no base running except for a frequently hurt Mondesi, no pitching except for guys coming off TJ and youngsters and a bullpen that takes Geritol.
Winning sometimes happens when it shouldn’t like in 2021 but that year the old 2018 guys carried them. Look around, Bloom got rid of all of them except Devers and Sale. Yes, if both have good years the team finishes closer to 4th in the division but you still have guys like kiki hernandez, arroyo, McGuire and Duvall in your starting line-up. Those are not players that carry a team to a playoff spot. If Mondesi can join Sale and Devers by having a great year that would help enormously but I’m not sure it would get them anything other than 5th in the division. It’s going to take massive injuries on other AL East teams for Boston to have a shot at a playoff spot by finishing fourth in the division.
PulledaBloom
I think that without Kike, Renfroe, Whitlock, Pivetta, Schwarber, Ottavino, Iglesias, Arroyo – Red Sox wouldn’t obtain a hit in a play-off 2021.
PulledaBloom
2021
Kike – 4.9 WAR
Whitlock – 2.9 WAR
Pivetta – 2.6 WAR
Renfroe – 2.3 WAR
Arroyo – 1.5 WAR ( 181 PA )
Schwarber – 1.3 WAR ( 168 PA for Boston )
Ottavino – 0.8 WAR
Iglesias – 0.4 WAR ( 64 PA for Boston )
16.3 WAR – $ 22.6 million
2021
Sawamura – (0.8 WAR)
Perez – (0.5 WAR)
Robles – (0.5 WAR 25 IP )
Richards – (0.3 WAR)
Plawecki – (0.2 WAR ( 173 PA )
T.Shaw – ( -0.1 WAR 48 PA for Boston )
A.Davis – ( -0.1 WAR 16 IP for Boston )
D.Santana – ( -0.3 WAR 127 PA )
M.Gonzalez – ( -0.5 WAR 271 PA for Boston )
M.Andriese – ( -0.6 WAR 37.1 IP for Boston )
Cordero – ( -0.7 WAR 136 PA )
0.0 WAR – $ 26 million
PulledaBloom
2021 Boston Red Sox
Kike – 4.9 WAR
Whitlock – 2.9 WAR
Pivetta – 2.6 WAR
Verdugo – 2.2 WAR
Renfroe – 2.3 WAR
Arroyo – 1.5 WAR ( 181 PA )
Schwarber – 1.3 WAR ( 168 PA for Boston )
Ottavino – 0.8 WAR
Iglesias – 0.4 WAR ( 64 PA for Boston )
Sawamura – (0.8 WAR)
Perez – (0.5 WAR)
Robles – (0.5 WAR 25 IP )
Richards – (0.3 WAR)
Plawecki – (0.2 WAR ( 173 PA )
T.Shaw – ( -0.1 WAR 48 PA for Boston )
A.Davis – ( -0.1 WAR 16 IP for Boston )
D.Santana – ( -0.3 WAR 127 PA )
M.Gonzalez – ( -0.5 WAR 271 PA for Boston )
M.Andriese – ( -0.6 WAR 37.1 IP for Boston )
Cordero – ( -0.7 WAR 136 PA )
+18.5 WAR – $ 49.2 milion+ $ 2.8 m change Benny = $ 52 m spending of Bloom on FA and exchange 2021
Bogie – I mean no disrespect but when a player hits
.250 with a OBP of .337 a SLG of .449 and OPS of .786 and OPS+ of 108
Don’t you have to question WAR if it was 4.9. Isn’t this a perfect indictment to using WAR for ANYTHING? To add insult to injury the guy only played 134 games. .250 AVERAGE (.239 in September/October).
One last point that invalidates what you wrote. The defensive side of WAR has long been questioned and if you look at the offensive side of WAR for the 2021 Red Sox you’ll see Kiki at 3.2 behind Bogey and Devers and slightly ahead of JD.
Now compare JD to Kiki to prove how inaccurate oWAR is:
Average – JD .286 Kiki .250
OBP – JD .349 Kiki .337
SLG – JD .518 Kiki .449
OPS – JD .867 Kiki .786
OPS+ – JD 128 Kiki 108
Did Kiki add to his value on defense? Again, it depends on what you believe in. I prefer facts so his below league average fielding percentage speaks volumes to his defense being slightly below the norm. dWAR gave him a 2.1 which is absolutely absurd considering the number of errors he made.
So if you are suggesting in any way that Bloom did a great job in 2021 gathering complimentary players to the great core group he started with I’d have to argue with you that nothing in the baseball records supports your argument. He screwed the pooch when it comes to filling out a team that had a great core leftover from DD.
I only objected on your post, that this was clean success.
Renfroe, Kike, Schwarber, Ottavino, Pivetta, Arroyo, Whitlock – can’t be a clean success 7 players.
Other question, why didn’t Bloom carry Renfroe, Schwarber, Ottavino in 2022 and BP didn’t improve?
The loss of Renfroe at the end of 2021 resulted in the cascade of problems in outfield, as in 2022,so in 2023 first of all in defence.
Other than being intentionally negative (mostly on Bello), it was an interesting article. The position players are likely to be quite a bit better than he makes them out to be, imo, but this is a high-variance rotation. I’d still prefer one more SP, even if not a particularly good one. I doubt we get 850 IPs from the current rotation, and anything more than one injury at a time will be tough to deal with.
Sounds like the Marlins are in love with the Casas kid. That’ll solve their SP problems. First basemen are easier to find than quality SP’s.
I like having my infield locked up for another 5-straight years, but it would be short-sighted to not listen. You always want to trade with someone that has surpluses of what we need. Make me an offer I can’t refuse.
I think the ballot schedule will come in to play as well, but then again the Yankees rays and Orioles all played six less divisional games as well
I think the balanced schedule will come in to play as well, but then again the Yankees rays Toronto and Orioles all play six less divisional games as well
overall good stuff… but I think it’s a MASSIVE oversight to group Bello in with the other ‘minor leaguers needing more time’ Bello is viewed as a potential above average, maybe not ace but 2/3 ML SP who is ML ready. Sure he had a rough start to his debut last year but then settled down and pitched to a 2.59 ERA in his final 6 starts. Views around Boston are he’s got a VERY good chance to break camp in the rotation and has possibly the highest upside of the bunch (Sale and Whitlock could also be seen as highest upside depending on what criteria you’re using)
That why I think the writer was being intentionally negative. If one wants to suggest that Bello is not #2 material, that’s fine. To suggest he is in anyway similar to Winc and Crawford really sounds like he has an ax to grind.
The top 3 In their prime would be outstanding
Bello had a 2.94 FIP.