Poll: Who Signs First, Jurickson Profar Or Michael Wacha?

Essentially from the moment MLB Trade Rumors published our annual top 50 free agents list, players immediately started flying off the board.  While the last few non-lockout offseasons saw a slowed free agent market, many of the biggest names of the 2022-23 class had already found new teams by the start of January…give or take Carlos Correa’s three-team saga, of course.  Now that Andrew Chafin has agreed to a deal with the Diamondbacks, only two players from that top-50 listing remain unsigned as Spring Training dawns: Jurickson Profar (ranked 33rd) and Michael Wacha (41st).

Profar voluntarily chose to test the open market, as he exercised an opt-out clause in his contract with the Padres.  Entering the third and final year of that deal, Profar took a $1MM buyout rather than the $7.5MM owed to him in 2023, thus making a $6.5MM bet that he could find a longer-term and more lucrative deal in free agency.  MLBTR agreed, projecting Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal.

Such a contract has yet to emerge for Profar, despite plenty of interest.  The Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers, and Orioles have all been linked to Profar at various points this offseason, though Houston and Boston have seemingly already addressed needs in left field.  The other reported suitors have somewhat clearer needs in left field, even if in-house options abound for all four teams.  Other factors may also be at play for particular teams — for example, the Yankees are very close to surpassing the top luxury tax threshold ($293MM), and reportedly don’t want to hit that highest penalty line.

As Profar approaches his 30th birthday, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever live up to his former top-prospect status, yet he provided solid numbers in three of the last five seasons.  Of course, that isn’t the most consistent track record, and Profar’s .241/.326/.403 slash line over 2384 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season works out to a barely above-average 101 wRC+.  While Profar had 110 wRC+ in 2022 and his 2.5 fWAR was the best of his career, this recent performance might not be enough to overcome a perception that is only a “good” player, and teams may not be willing to give a multi-year deal for just “good” (and somewhat unpredictable) performance going forward.

It can be assumed that Profar is at least looking to top that $6.5MM salary he left on the table in San Diego, but his current contract demands are unknown.  It could be that Profar is open to a one-year contract — or one guaranteed year with an option for 2024 — at an average annual value slightly higher than $6.5MM, so he can at least recoup that money and then test the market again next winter.  Profar is represented by the Boras Corporation, and Scott Boras is well-known both for waiting until deep into an offseason to find an acceptable deal for his clients, and for coming up with creative contracts that include flexibility for both the player and the team.

There is a bit more information about Wacha’s demands, since as of two weeks ago, the right-hander and his reps at CAA Sports were reportedly looking for a two-year contract in the range of $30MM.  This is well above the two-year, $16MM deal that MLBTR projected for Wacha’s next deal, though prices for starting pitchers have mostly skyrocketed this winter.

The Orioles, Twins, and Angels have all reportedly had interest in Wacha this offseason, though Minnesota’s trade for Pablo Lopez might have sealed up the last spot in the rotation.  For Baltimore, Wacha has been on the Orioles’ radar both before and after their signing of Kyle Gibson, a similar veteran arm meant to provide innings and experience within the young O’s rotation.  The Angels were the most recent of the three clubs to check in (in early February), and while Los Angeles has already signed Tyler Anderson to bolster the starter ranks, the Angels need a particular amount of depth given their likely deployment of a six-man rotation.

As with Profar, Wacha might fit into that “good but not great” category due to a lack of consistency.  After posting shaky results from 2019-21, Wacha seemingly got back on track by posting a 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2022.  The righty did a good job of limiting hard contact and he continued his recent trend of limiting walks, but the rest of his Statcast sheet wasn’t overly impressive, including a 20.2% strikeout rate that was well below league average.  Wacha also spent about seven weeks on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, which is of particular concern given his past history of shoulder injuries.

Despite these drawbacks, Wacha’s market is boosted by the simple cliche of “you can never have enough pitching.”  Teams with seemingly full rotations might prefer to sign Wacha and push a younger arm further down the depth chart, or it is quite possible a new club might emerge as a suitor should a pitching injury arise during Spring Training.  That same logic also extends to Profar, as a team’s outfield plans might suddenly be altered if a lineup regular gets hurt.

Which of these free agents do you think will be the next to sign?

(poll link for app users)