The Phillies have signed lefty reliever Jose Alvarado to a three year contract, per a team announcement. The deal keeps Alvarado in Philadelphia through at least the 2025 season, and includes a club option for 2026. Alvarado is represented by OL Baseball Group.
According to Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, Alvarado will earn $9MM in each of the 2024 and 2025 seasons, with a $50K signing bonus. The 2026 club option is for $9MM, with a $500k buyout. Alvarado and the club already agreed to a $3.45MM salary for 2023 to avoid arbitration, effectively making this three-year, $22MM contract a two-year, $18.55MM extension. Still, it’s a three-year contract for luxury tax purposes, meaning the Phillies will be taxed on a $7.33MM AAV for 2023, as opposed to the previous $3.45MM figure. On the other hand, this also lowers the tax figure for 2024 and 2025 seasons compared to the $9.275MM figure it would have been if structured as a two year deal.
Alvarado, 28 in May, is coming off a phenomenal 2022 season that saw him post a 3.18 ERA across 51 innings of work. While that figure is good for a solidly above-average ERA+ of 129, digging a little deeper reveals that Alvarado posted a dazzling 1.92 FIP last season, the fourth best in baseball, minimum 50 innings pitched. The discrepancy between Alvarado’s run prevention and his underlying metrics likely comes from an inflated .340 BABIP that stands well above his career .302 mark. The rare lefty who can touch triple digits with his fastball, Alvarado’s success came in large part from a 37.9% strikeout rate, which stood as 7th in baseball among those with at least 50 IP.
Alvarado’s success came from more than just strikeouts, however. As a sinkerballer, Alvarado also managed to keep the ball on the ground at and impressive 56.1% clip. Only Jhoan Duran of the Twins had a higher groundball rate while striking out at least 30% of batters faced, while no pitcher who struck out batters at a higher clip than Alvarado induced grounders at a rate of even 50%. That mix of strikeouts and groundballs is a strong recipe for success, and by signing Alvarado long term, the Phillies are indicating confidence in his ability to continue his success past his 30th birthday.
Early in the offseason, the top end of the free agent market exploded, with Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero signing early for surprising guarantees in re-signing with their previous clubs. Suarez secured $46MM from the Padres, while Montero received $34.5MM from the Astros. Taylor Rogers, meanwhile, landed a $33MM guarantee in San Francisco. Those figures all outstrip Alvarado’s guarantee by a considerable amount, but the $18.55MM in new money surpasses the guarantees of free agent lefties who signed later this offseason such as Matt Strahm ($15MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), and Matt Moore, ($7.55MM). Given how Alvarado’s deal stacks up well against fellow relievers in his service bracket like Ryan Pressly, Huston Street, and Daniel Bard, taking this deal is an understandable decision for him. While there’s risk he continues to dominate as he did in 2022, the Phillies are risking that his struggles with injuries and command resurface from earlier in his career and limit his abilities going forward.
This is the second extension at the back of the Phillies’ bullpen in as many days, as the club agreed to a deal Seranthony Dominguez yesterday that could keep Dominguez in Philadelphia through the 2025 season. With these deals, the Phillies have locked up a pair of exciting, high-octane arms who can be penciled in for late inning duties alongside Strahm and Gregory Soto for the next few seasons. Having also also added Craig Kimbrel to their late inning mix for the 2023 season last month, the Phillies appear to have turned a bullpen that has long been considered an area of weakness for the club into a strength as they attempt to return to the World Series after last year’s surprise postseason run.
Philly was smart – they built a good bullpen, a big reason they made it to the Series last season. Now they continue to be smart and are extending these guys to make sure they are around a while. Other teams should take note.
You should check the 2022 OD roster.
Agree VPH. If Kimbrel manages 10 saves I’d be shocked. I suspect Seranthony gets closer to 20.
It’s smart, but there is no specialty in baseball more fluid than relievers. Today’s great $9MM reliever is tomorrow’s DFA.
Literally every one of their relievers is overrated/overpaid
lol
Tell me you don’t know anything about the Phillies without telling me you don’t know anything about the Phillies
10 million for Kimbrel who’s sucked for 4 years with the exception of half a season
Extending Alvarado who sucked for 3 years prior to 2022
Extending seranthony Dominguez averaging 19 innings the last 4 years
Trading young guys for the biggest ERA merchant in the league Gregory Soto
Massively overpaying Matt strahm for 2/15
Kimbrel had a pretty solid half of season last year before falling apart. Phillies won’t be using him like the Dodgers did so I think he could work. but yes Kimbrel is definitely over paid. Dominguez is young and potentially dominant. Alvarado improved drastically. I love all these moves except Kimbrel.
Well said, Fraham_. Pretty solid evaluation there and saved me time not having to respond to some of these nitwits.
Building a bullpen is always risky, and what appears to be a solid move today could look bad next year. You mention five arms, but take the opposing profile – you are very sure of yourself that the moves all suck. And that is simply uninformed and silly.
Five arms…I gulped at the Kimbrel deal, but it is still only one year and there are very few bad one year deals in baseball. Alvarado…if he has another good year, he is going to be gone on a deal that might be closer to Diaz than otherwise so this is a calculated risk with real upside. Same with SirAnthony, although that is an even stronger deal.
I don’t love Soto, but even though I liked the players they gave up, they are depth. If they can improve Soto, he is a live arm. Strahm…this huge overpay narrative is dumb. This site had him as a 2 / $14M…big deal.
If three out of five are effective and healthy, then it is a win. Add one more and it is a big win. Saying with such cocky assurance that the deals all suck is just posturing and attention-whoring.
Ah yes, having opinions is attention-whoring now I almost forget.
Trading for Soto is like throwing a hand grenade into your bullpen. When he implodes that’ll weaken things. I expect he’ll be a non-roster invite for the Tigers in 2024…and then Chris Fetter will fix him again. Meanwhile Vierling, Maton and Sands all get significant playing time and Clemens gets cut.
Here ya go!!
It’s going to be fun for the rest of the league when Kimbrel is the full time closer.
As a Mets fan, you should probably realize that Kimbrel won’t be the Phillies closer. Dominguez is the top guy in the pen. With Alvarado and Soto behind him. Then they got Strahm, Brogdon and Kimbrel. I don’t think the Phillies rely on 1 top arm, and will use high leverage arms accordingly. I know you’re trying to be funny, but the Phillies bullpen is really good on paper at least. Kimbrel isn’t even needed.
Not trying to be funny. Relievers and bullpens as a whole are extremely volatile from year to year. If Kimbrel wasn’t needed, the Phillies would still have $10M in their pocket. But tell me more about how smart you are.
So by your logic I can make the ridiculous statement that Ottavino will be the Mets closer even when they clearly have better options. Phillies are spending big on Kimbrel’s upside. They are clearly not relying on him as the closer. It’s been stated multiple times. Keep hating for no reason.
Kimbrel has zero upside. None. Next.
We’ll see. I like the Phillies pen over the Mets. Mets have the better closer by a mile though.
Phillies have a lot of uncertainty in that pen. Couple guys had career years. Don’t let it give you false confidence.
Sure. I can say the same about quite a few Mets players last year, but I’m not a moron. I still like the Phillies pen a lot. Kimbrel is the only guy I don’t love.
Ooh Bob’s getting personal! This is new…
For whoever he’s playing for in 2024?
They tried to sign Lee Smith but he wasn’t interested.
Wow!?! They extended there two best relief pitchers? Philly is going all in!!
What’s next, Phillies extend Jose Mesa?
Ugeth Urbina.
Joe Table and that dammed blue glove.
Let’s hope it’s Aaron Nola.
That’s going to be tough, but needs to get done.
The longer they wait, the harder it’s going to be.
Bye bye Nola. Bye Bye Wheeler (sue to TJ soon).
*due to, not sue to.
Silence! Negative Nancy.
Let’s hope Grandpa Verlander and Ancient Max Scherzer will be reliable all season. Until they get rocked in the playoffs.
I’ll go to war with two of the greatest pitchers ever. To say that you wouldn’t is a patent lie. Try again.
I’d go to war with them too. WWII, since they’re old enough to remember it.
I wouldn’t. Both will have a stint on the IL before the ASB.
Either way, the only thing stopping the Mets from winning a WS is the playoffs.
Signing before free agency would be the worst business decision Nola could ever make. Sure, is there some risk? Yes. But he would be looking at 8 years $250…at least on the open market. Hard to imagine Philly spending that. But some team will…
I tend to agree with you, but I’d also add, these new rules are going to change things, perhaps drastically. Some pitchers may be looking for security.
I approve
These are all great. I’m looking forward to a “Rangers extend Josh Jung” headline. Maybe 7 years 35 million with a team option for 20 mil and a 5 million buyout?
It’d almost be worth getting assy cabrera out of retirement just to watch him explode Alvarados brain one more time.
Joe Jimenez?
I think you mean Gregory Soto instead of Joe Jimenez. Joe went to ATL.
Before Dave Dombrowski the Phillies were dead on arrival. Now they are WS contenders with legit future top prospects in Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, and Justin Crawford. Extending Aaron Nola is a priority. Last year seems like only the beginning with this team.
Pitching prospects are just that – prospects. I’ll be surprised if they hit on even one of those pitchers. Nola will be gone, Wheeler will get his second TJS this year (inevitable), and DD will be left with a bunch of prospects who have proven nothing. Many teams have played this game before with pitching. Many teams. But don’t let objectivity get in the way of a good story.
Debbie downer over here.
Let’s see if Philly can eek a useful pitcher out of one of those prospects
This is going to be fun when you have to eat your words this summer.
He always conveniently disappears when the Mets fall apart. Only to return to get his offseason trophy.
@YCPIITB – Why act like such a useless poster? Who knows what will happen this year? The Mets should be good, as should the Braves and Phils.
You don’t know a thing however, so the more that you type, the dumber that you look. Relax and enjoy the baseball…the NL East will be fun once again this year.
I’ve been here all along Von. You just didn’t know it. Congrats on your WS loss btw. If you ain’t first you’re last!
Useless, dumb, anything else?!
I’d take a WS loss over a first round exit every single time. Weird flex.
You could actually try to add some value, rather than troll non-stop.
Von, think that’s an improper use of “weird flex”, but you do you old man. I know it’s hard to stay hip when you still write for your high school newspaper for a living.
Correct English would require you to use a comma after “you”. It should look like this:
Von, think that’s an improper use of “weird flex”, but you do you, old man.
I guess you did not write for you high school newpaper, did you?
Hands down, the NL East should be the most talented and hard fought division in baseball this year. As with last year, the records of the teams within the division spoke to how good the teams where across the board.
Since the Marlins are also improved, I’m really excited for some good games between these teams this year. I’m looking forward to watching the “Bedlam at the Bank” on a nightly basis a la 2008-2012.
Ok so have posted a few times the Phils will let him walk…
Man was I wrong….Happily wrong, but wrong….
Thanks D for building that pen…and keeping it….
Why don’t you write us a poem. Maybe your post would be more memorable than your usual garbage.
Look I keep telling you, I did not know she was your wife…? Or if you keep “it” out of the books, you may finally get a girl/wife etc ? (or another weak response to another weak post from you….)
Not sure why you troll me…But if it makes you happy, go for it….or mute me if my posts trigger you as such…..?
That’s not a poem, silly.
These last 2 extensions nice job, the kimbrel signing is baffling. I get it it’s hard to find a closer but the guy loses games in a hurry. There should be some good relief help in the market this year by mid season.
He’s not the closer, but yeah still a dumb signing IMO.
Meh, I think they utilize Kimbrel in a 6th or 7th inning role along with Brogdon and Bellati. Soto, Strahm, Alvarado, and Dominguez are the backend.
I like it. I like it A LOT!
Kimbrel has been a closer his entire career. No matter what they say, his experience alone will keep him in the mix for saves. Give one example of a long time closer suddenly being mid relief, with no save opps. Just doesn’t happen.
That’s why he’s a good fit for the Phillies because they don’t currently believe in 1 traditional closer. Sometimes outs in the 7th or 8th are more important than the final three. Kimbrel is not at the top of the depth chart for Phillies relievers, but I still expect 7-10 saves on the season if all goes well.
They don’t believe in 1 traditional closer… because they don’t have one. Kind of a dumb comment.
You can start a sentence with the word “meanwhile.” I promise you it’s allowed.