One of the bigger moves of the Mets’ active offseason was the signing of starter Kodai Senga to a five-year, $75MM guarantee. The 30-year-old righty is making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he posted a 2.59 ERA across 11 seasons. Senga was one of the highest-upside hurlers available in free agency, though there’s naturally some amount of performance risk until he translates his production against MLB competition.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Mets also expressed some concern about Senga’s medical evaluations before finalizing the contract in December. Further details aren’t clear, though Heyman notes Mets personnel have expressed confidence in Senga’s health prognosis for the upcoming season. That’s hardly surprising, as whatever concerns the organization had raised didn’t deter them from agreeing to the fourth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher this offseason. That contract also affords Senga an opportunity to opt out and retest the market after the 2025 season, though the Associated Press reports that’s contingent on the righty throwing a combined 400 innings over the next three years.
In other news out of Queens:
- The Mets never pursued a full-time designated hitter upgrade this offseason partially out of a desire to preserve a path to at-bats for their younger hitters, writes Andy Martino of SNY. Top prospects Francicso Álvarez and Brett Baty each reached the majors late in the 2022 season. Each is a polished hitter but faces questions about their defense at catcher and third base, respectively. That’s also true of corner infielder Mark Vientos, who’s not quite the same caliber of prospect as Álvarez or Baty but earned an MLB look with a .280/.358/.519 showing at Triple-A Syracuse. Martino suggests the Mets aren’t likely to give them early-season looks at DH in hopes of each continuing to show progress defensively, though there could be a path to bat-only reps later in the year — or for veteran Eduardo Escobar to slide to DH if Baty seized the third base job at some point. Lefty-swinging veteran Daniel Vogelbach earned the larger share of a DH platoon to open the year with an excellent .261/.382/.497 showing against righties anyhow. Offseason signee Tommy Pham or last summer’s deadline pickup Darin Ruf are righty bats who could shoulder the load against southpaws. Ruf’s second-half struggles give Pham the upper hand in that regard, but Martino writes the Mets are at least likely to carry Ruf on the roster into Spring Training.
- New York locked up one of their homegrown stars last Friday, signing Jeff McNeil to a four-year, $50MM extension to potentially buy out a trio of free agent years. General manager Billy Eppler addressed the deal earlier this week, expressing broad openness to negotiations with other important players who are early in their careers (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). First baseman Pete Alonso is the most logical candidate for those kinds of talks as he enters his penultimate season of arbitration control, though neither Eppler nor Alonso’s representatives at Apex Baseball have indicated publicly whether discussions might take place over the coming weeks. Discussions with McNeil, at least, were a long time running before culminating in a deal. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports Eppler and McNeil’s camp at Paragon Sports International first opened extension talks in November 2021, just before the lockout froze communications between teams and 40-man roster players until March.
Jaysfan1981
Honest question to Mets fans.
What happens if you don’t win a WS in 3 years?
Are you worried Cohen will change his ways, close the pocketbook?
Would you be happy just having 3 solid runs through the regular season and losing in the playoffs?
Lets Go DBacks
Ah, the famous “what if” question. Every answer on it is as useful as the question itself.
Jaysfan1981
Appears you were giving an example of useful responses?
Thanks for the input lol
Dorothy_Mantooth
I would think that so long as the Mets make it to the NLCS or even the World Series and lose over the next 2-3 years, that will keep Cohen motivated enough to continue his high spending ways. The real question is what happens if the team tanks (injuries, etc) and doesn’t make the playoffs in back to back seasons? Then I’d think we’ll see a major change in Cohen’s spending, but either way, Cohen is going to get smarter about his spending the longer he stay in the game. You don’t become a billionaire by being stupid, so eventually the ‘fan-boy’ mentality will wear off and he’ll figure out what needs to be done to build a championship organization and make a profit as well!
Jaysfan1981
I don’t want to hate or meme on Mets fans, and it wasn’t the point of my post to Bait or provoke Mets fans either.
It’s just as an outsider, I see this as only 2 ways, being scarred by the Yankees my entire life. My fear is Cohen breaks baseball and the Mets win 4 or 5 of the next 6 or 7 WS but appear in all of them, 95% of the league just tanks and the next CBA kills baseball.
Or
The Mets find a way to “Mets” and miss the playoffs for 5 straight years, the world is in economic crisis and Cohen is filing for bankruptcy wishing he didn’t commit 7 billion dollars to contracts over a 5 year period.
I’m not sure either outcome is desirable lol
mydogcrowder
Jaysfan this. I pray he doesn’t break baseball man because it’s already going downhill. I can only imagine the next CBA
Jaysfan1981
@crowder.
I’m worried brother. Mostly because I’ve seen what happened to my NHL team after they decided salaries were going to get out of control and locked out the players
Now, granted. The NHL is the bottom tier of the pro sports. But the fact my team could outspend everyone else, could fix their mistakes by throwing money at it. And are now forced to operate no different than teams who don’t want to compete is the fear I have for MLB
It stops becoming about how talented are my players to how talented is my front office and how creative can we get with contracts.
I believe owners are just as important as the players. Both should earn their money, collect their profits
But I also believe an Owner like Cohen should be able to spend a Billion on salaries and lose half of it to bring his team a championship if that’s what he wants to do
Problem is you gotta find 30 other people to do the same thing knowing they only have a 3.3% chance of winning or it gets out of whack.
Blue Baron
@Jaysfan: There’s a lot of middle ground and many possible outcomes between those extreme scenarios, and fans don’t really have control over the process nor any choice but to watch and accept whatever happens. That’s the very essence of being a fan.
JoeBrady
it wasn’t the point of my post to Bait or provoke Mets fans either.
…………and Cohen is filing for bankruptcy wishing he didn’t commit 7 billion dollars to contracts over a 5 year period.
===============
Not a Mets fan, but this has all the hallmarks of “concern trolling”. Cohen doesn’t have a tiny fraction of $7B in contract commitments, and Cohen is not remotely close to bankruptcy.
As a RS fan, it would be like me asking the NYY fans if they are concerned about the number of $400M contracts they have on their books.
joebourgeois
I’m not trying to hate or meme [snip] lol.
Cohen’s said repeatedly that his goal is to spend in free agency to compete for the WS now while also building up the farm so he can ramp down FA spending later. And there are limits now – Correa ran up against them, as presumably did folks like Abreu and Martinez.
Curly Is A Dumb Stooge
Joe Brady – spot on. Jaysfan1981 is a little green with envy.
Lyman Bostock
Wow, a good post from Baron where he wasn’t insulting anyone!!!
PaulyMidwest
I just got into nhl 2 years ago but I love it..I hate the cap though..somehow my Devils are doing amazing with a young exciting team though.
put it in the books
I find it funny how everyone loses it on Cohen’s spending- he had a team where most of them were free agents and he mostly resigned them or their replacements. Yet Steinbrenner has been doing this for 20 years and the Dodgers for 10 years and the Padres and Rangers for 3 and no one seems to care. The Rangers have been much worse than Cohen in breaking baseball and they can’t even make the playoffs. His big free agent deals have mostly been short term with the exception of Lindor. Resigning a teams current player, like Nimmo or Diaz is still a free agent deal but is different to me than going out and throwing money at whoever is available. The dude spends money but I think he’s actually been pretty reasonable about how he’s done it.
Curly Is A Dumb Stooge
Spot on, books
cpdpoet
“concern trolling”
Soo many new terms with such colorful explanations…
Curly Is A Dumb Stooge
Your point? He’s not wrong.
cpdpoet
pennypacker….”get off my lawn”
My point was directed at the usage of the term as something I had not heard before……and had nothing to do with the post
….replied to myself as for some reason I can’t reply to you….hmmm.
Curly Is A Dumb Stooge
Seems like you’ve worn out your welcome. Stick to poetry.
Blue Baron
@put it in the books: Nobody’s “breaking baseball,” whatever that even means.
padam
The long term fear is that we have George Steinbrenner as our owner. If it wasn’t for his suspension, I’m not sure the Yankees have the history they had for two decades, 1990-2010. And while the Mets have been hesitant to deal the kids they have, they moved two top prospects in the OF in prior years that could’ve solved a long term solution in the OF with Kelenic, Armstrong and Nimmo. Splash in Baty, Alvarez, Gimenez, Alonso, Parada, McNeil, and former Mets like DeGrom, they’ve done a very good job at drafting.
Sometimes the best trades are no trades, and hopefully Cohen doesn’t sign everyone who has a pulse and then can’t move the contract and the tax weighs him down at some point. While I’m happy the team is spending, I’m optimistic with caution.
Jaysfan1981
Thanks for the reply Padam.
I’m confused about the George Steinbrenner comment. Did you mean Hal?
George’s spending is the only reason the Yankees have been relevant since the 90s.
George’s spending built their brand
Hal is killing it.
Yea baseball has revenue sharing, but it’s only 50%.
I’d be willing to bet the 50% the Yankees get to keep is more than a third of the bottom of the league combined
They should be a repeat luxury tax payer every year and never question paying a Judge or Rodon
padam
Steinbrenner was notorious for signing free agents that didn’t always work out, and the trades he made leveraged and depleted any prospects he had. A great example that’s made fun of on TV due to his reputation is the Ken Phelps for Jay Buhner trade on Seinfeld. When George was suspended, Gene Michael and to an extent Bob Watson decided they wanted to build through the farm and that’s exactly what happened. Jeter, Williams, Rivera, Posada, and Pettite solidified a core for many years down the road. If George wasn’t suspended, there was a good chance many of those prospects would’ve been traded and become the recent “Jay Buhner’s” of the organization’s history.
brewsingblue82
I think he’s actually got an easy window to switch philosophies. Unless I’m wrong, only Nimmo, Lindor and Diaz are on longer contracts that have that “bigger money”. People like Scherzer, Verlander and such are on large short term deals that really hike the team salary up, but with them being just that, it means once those contracts are up, it’s realistically easier to switch and say “Okay, that big spending idea didn’t work, let’s try a new approach.” Because just Verlander and Scherzer alone clears off like 80 million a year. Matte is a bigger salary, but will also be expiring around the time Scherzer and Verlander do. Cano and McCann will be coming off the books anyhow. Now if they keep adding like 2 blockbuster deals every offseason it’ll be harder. As it stands though, if things faltered in the next 3 years, they’d only have Nimmo, Diaz and Lindor on the books on larger salaries and could easily switch gears to using younger players who’ve come up through the system to potentially replace a couple people and be back at a more Dodger/Yankees type of spending.
Jaysfan1981
@brew82
I never really thought about the short term implications of just Verlander and Scherzer alone. 80 million is basically 2 mega deals in waiting 3 years from now. Even a rebuild on the fly is possible in the worst case.
Can’t waste the money spent on a Lindor or Diaz. So I’d expect a full retool regardless of standings in those 3 years.
Nimmo is expensive but league average would justify his salary in 5 years anyway
NYMetsFanatic
No, Cohen seems like a guy that will only become more obsessed with attaining a championship if we don’t get there in 3 years. Eventually it will happen.
Mlutz
The plan always has and always will be to produce a sustainable farm pipeline.
Right now the team is built to compete for a world series right now.
With a number of top 100 mlb prospects coming of age in the coming years, he will then pivot to make free agency a supplemental piece instead of the cornerstone of the roster.
While the mets have Alonso, McNeil, & Nimmo, this fanbase has seen a number of former prospects flourish elsewhere. The plan is to retain those prospects in this cycle, instead of trading or not re signing them. Im looking forward to that day but am extremely happy Cohen sees the current payroll as start up costs to reach that day.
Spirit79
But those prospects flourishing elsewhere do not include Kelenic, Dunn, Kay, Woods-Richardson, who when we traded them were seen by the fan base as Mantle, Gibson, Buehrle, and Gooden.
Mlutz
Is this hyperbole? I can give you Kelenic, maybe dunn, def not kay and woods-richardson.
Youre also excluding:
Andres Gimenez
Amed Rosario
Zach Wheeler
Travis d’Arnaud
Chris Flexen
Rafael Montero
Paul Sewald
Colin McHugh
Wilmer Flores
Kevin Plawecki
And soon to be PCA
VonPurpleHayes
“Sustainable farm pipeline” takes a lot of luck. Most prospects fail. And that of course is assuming the Mets resist temptation to trade some of them. The Mets are a win-now team, but they will certainly add come trade deadline. To do that, prospects likely get moved.
Mlutz
I dont think thats a certainty. This FO has shown 0 interest in re living the PCA trade mistake.
raisinsss
Uncertainty is part of baseball.
If you evaluate FO performance by looking only at the moves that didn’t pan out, only in a binary way, without consideration for hindsight bias, and only for one team, you’re being foolish and shortsighted.
VonPurpleHayes
@Mlutz I agree. So far, so good. I do think that Correa move changes everything though. Had that deal went through, prospects may get dealt, McNeil may not be extended…the Mets future and identity would’ve changed drastically.
Ma4170
Well, as a Met fan since I can remember (about 1976), I’d rather have a few years of sustained winning, even if the WS doesn’t happen. For example, 2015 was a lot of fun, and it sucked to not win, but I enjoyed that year a lot. Not like 1986 of course, but way more than the forgettable years of 1977-83, 1992-96, 2010-14, etc, etc, etc
Mlutz
2015 was followed up by deadline deals that did not include $ in deals to net higher level prospects.
Thus breaking the pipeline
Rsox
I think the more concerning part would be setting record payrolls and not making the playoffs. As the Yankees found out in the mid-’00s it’s not how much you spend, but what you spend it on
dugmet
Cohen recognizes the value of long term investment.
Rusteze
Goooood question, probably won’t bother me as much compare to other mets fans. But at least me made playoffs I’ll take it.
Yankee Clipper
Hopefully Senga will be Tanaka-like for you all. Be great to bring that type of excitement back to the City.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
Padres fan here: the way I see it, that NPB ERA jumps up by at least a run per 9 in the majors..which is why I was really hoping he’d go elsewhere..I wish him well..but dude looks like a 4-5 starter to me. Guess we’ll see what happens..
Yankee Clipper
Yeah, overall I agree. NPB players do not have a high probability of translating their performance over to MLB. I also believe him to be a mid-level rotation SP.
But the Pads are stacked again. It’s crazy to look at their lineup, man. It reads like an All-Star team.
Jaysfan1981
Gonna be difficult to keep that Allstar team together long term tho.
Machado is probably the first domino to fall.
How much do they overpay to keep Soto? He’s going to cost 25% more than Judge, 15/475?
They want to take a run at Ohtani. 15/525?
When does it stop? How can in continue?
Between the Mets and SD, Ohtani and Soto might get 600 each at this rate
mydogcrowder
It’s sick!
metgiantfan
Cohen is a natural response to the Wilpons. The league should have stepped in multiple times throughout their tenure over the Mets. This includes when they were tied up with the Bernie Madoff scandal, needed to take a loan to keep the team running, and when they badmouthed their own players during contract negotiations. They ran the organization so poorly. Thus includes the minor league system. The only way the team could have ever improved is if a billionaire took over.
Lyman Bostock
Hopefully a little more consistent than Tanaka.
Yankee Clipper
Yeah, I hear you there. But he was excellent (for the most part) in the postseason. And frankly, he would’ve been even better had he not been pitching with a partially torn UCL for a majority of his Yankees tenure. We loved him in NY.
Lyman Bostock
Yeah I remember, I’m also a New Yorker.
His first year that splitter was falling off the table and he looked incredible. After that he wasn’t completely the same. I think his MLB ERA ended being around 3.86 after he mixed in a few 4+ ERA seasons. I’d say that would be the bottom of our expectations. The top would probably be high 2’s or low 3’s and then anywhere around 3.50 would be just right. Anyways, excited to see what we have in this guy.
LordD99
You’ll be disappointed if you’re seeking more consistency than Tanaka.
Curly Is A Dumb Stooge
And you’ll be disappointed if you’re seeking health and longevity from Judge and Rodon. Oops.
KrustyTheKlown
Mets should have gotten a legit DH, the reason the faltered down the stretch last season was hitting, and that series vs the Braves / Padres their offense disappeared. With Verlander and Scherzer close to 40, the opportunity is small. Also Vogelbach is limiting, he’s either a one bag or blast hitter, and has to be taken out the second he’s on base. Plus he can’t fill in on defense at all.
Jaysfan1981
The Article suggests Baty, Alvarez and Vientos who had nearly a 900 ops in AAA all looking to get DH time and time on the field if their bats play. Just not right out of spring
Who would have been your ideal DH this off-season? It seems like the trend is for clubs to keep DH spots open for rest days and cycling through an extra player in over crowded positions. Or like above, rookies who need chances to show their bats at the MLB level for an extended period.
KrustyTheKlown
Still think you’re right ? Known.
raisinsss
Vogelbach was pretty much Pete Alonso against righties and he costs nothing. I’m having a hard time agreeing with the criticism.
Ma4170
overall, but not w the Mets though. He had 9 2b and 6 hr in 54 games. That’s not good from someone who’s supposed to be a power source. He draws walks, which are better than outs, sure.. but limited value from a run producing slot. I know he was hurt and he’s cheap so let’s see how he does. But even against rhp he’s not Alonso, who’s proven he’s one of the best run producers in mlb.
KrustyTheKlown
Agreed rookies need to get looks, but not for a team with WS aspirations. Mets still need a big bopper in the middle of the lineup to put them over the top. After Alonso and lindor their power threat drops off dramatically. Josh Bell, benintendi, Conforto jose abreu would’ve been better options.
Spirit79
Abreu is the only one better than what we have.
Spirit79
Maybe Bell too but not Benintendi or Conforto. They are no better than Vogelbach/Baty/Pham/Vientos/Álvarez/Ruf.
KrustyTheKlown
Me guess is conforto hits 25 homeruns 90 rbi .280 BA IMO
Curly Is A Dumb Stooge
Clown.
raisinsss
Nope. Sustainable winners use rookies in their success in both minor and major roles. Look at the playoff teams from prior years. You can’t just never play rookies.
KrustyTheKlown
And how did that work out? Klown
Cleon Jones
I think I agree with you, he’s a fascinating addition to rotation. The contract is designed to reflect their apprehension, AAV 15M, injury options built in, theyre concerned with his elbow, Senga gets an opt- out in 3 yrs. Mets were careful in structuring this, and gave themselves a 6th year option if it goes well. I think theyll be happy with mid rotation production, but hoping for more.So am I. This one is not stupid money level contract. Im excited to see him and how this works out.
LordD99
Kind of burying the lede here a bit with Senga, or maybe I missed the news originally about him being able to opt out as long as he pitches 400 innings his first three years.
He’s definitely an interesting pitcher, but there are a number of scouts who believe he ultimately will end up in the pen, and could be dominant in that role. A shift to the pen though won’t let him reach 400 innings, although he’d have a difficult time beating the 2/30 remaining if he’s setting up Diaz.
icantstandyous
Lol this is ineptlers new contract negotiation tactic. Go after 33yr old plus players and say you have health concerns to get them to lower contract. Everyone saw how this line up went limp when season was on the line and this dope didn’t make any upgrades at all. 2023 prediction: No more than 82-85 wins with a $300+ payroll. Pathetic
Bill M
Pathetic prediction
icantstandyous
Kinda like your Mets. When was the last time they won a title? 36 years? But you almost had it. I will bask in glory sipping ale from curved horns when this prediction comes true.
Curly Is A Dumb Stooge
Pathetic = a non-Mets fan named “icantstandyous” posting on a 2 day old Mets article.
IamThatDude
We had fun in Philly lol