The Dodgers have had a quieter offseason than in recent years, limiting their acquisitions primarily to veterans on short-term deals so far. Many had speculated that the club was planning to dip under the competitive balance tax threshold in order to avoid paying the tax for a third year in a row and enter 2024 as a “first-time” payor. If they had any designs on that kind of approach, they largely went out the window when Trevor Bauer’s suspension was reduced, putting $22.5MM back onto their ledger.
That led some people to wonder if the club would then pivot to trading some salaried player to reduce their tax number, but Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has denied that will be a consideration. “No,” Friedman responded to the suggestion, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. “We’re doing all we can to win a championship this year.”
Roster Resource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $238MM, just $5MM over the $233MM threshold. Trading some salary to dip back under could be theoretically possible, though it would come with challenges. Blake Treinen is a name that has been speculatively floated by some as a candidate for such a trade, given his $8MM salary this year. However, he underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated 10-month recovery time. The Dodgers would have to include some kind of prospect to convince any team to take on that kind of money for a guy likely to miss the whole season. Others have floated Chris Taylor as a candidate for a salary-dumping deal, since he’s still owed $45MM over the next three years. But moving him now would be selling low after he had a subpar .221/.304/.373 showing last year. It would also subtract from an outfield that already appears to be somewhat thin. Even if the club did pull off some kind of move to limbo under the line, they would then be handcuffed by what moves they could make during the season, as making a notable deadline deal could get them right back over again.
Though they apparently aren’t going to avoid the tax this year, they have still kept their moves modest this winter. They’ve signed some veterans to one-year deals in Clayton Kershaw, J.D. Martinez, Noah Syndergaard and Shelby Miller, as well as acquiring Miguel Rojas from the Marlins, who has just one year remaining on his deal. Regardless of the financials involved, it seems the club is hoping for their prospect pipeline to feed their big league roster in a significant way this winter, with names like Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney having departed via free agency.
James Outman has just four big league games under his belt but could potentially get a significant run in the outfield this year. Miguel Vargas has played 18 major league games but could be the club’s everyday second baseman if he’s playing well and Gavin Lux is successful in moving over to shortstop. Infield/outfield prospect Michael Busch has yet to make his debut but reached Triple-A last year and could push himself into the picture. Outfield prospect Andy Pages hasn’t made it to the big leagues yet either but spent all of last year at Double-A and should be on the cusp this season.
The club’s rotation seems in solid shape with Kershaw and Syndergaard joined by Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. Of course, pitcher injuries are inevitable and a path will eventually open up for prospects here as well. Ryan Pepiot has already made his major league debut, getting into nine games last year. He’s a bit ahead of Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone, who aren’t on the 40-man yet, though they each reached Triple-A last year and could have roster spots before long.
That tempered offseason means the club is just barely over the CBT line, but they will still be facing a steep tax rate. Since they also paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they will be considered a third-time payor this year if they stay over. That means they will be paying a 50% tax on all spending over that threshold and that rate jumps to 62% if they eventually get above the $253MM line. Currently, that only amounts to paying about $2.5MM in taxes, but the final tally will depend on how the rest of the year plays out.
Though resetting their tax status doesn’t seem to be in the cards this year, it’s possible that the opportunity will arise again after the upcoming season. Since their additions have been limited to veterans who will reach free agency in November, there’s a decent amount of money coming off the books later this year. Kershaw, Martinez, Syndergaard, Miller, Rojas and Urías are all slated to hit the open market. The club has an option for Treinen for 2024 with the value falling somewhere between $1MM and $7MM based on his health and other factors. Since he’s going to miss most or all of the upcoming season, it will likely be on the cheap end of that spectrum. Then there’s Bauer’s deal, which will be off the books as well since 2022 is the last year of his contract. Max Muncy and Daniel Hudson have club options for 2024, though at reasonable salary numbers that seem likely to be triggered if they’re healthy.
That will give the club plenty of payroll flexibility next year but will also create roster holes. How much work the club has to do next winter will depend on how many of those gaps can be filled internally. The departures of Kershaw and Urias will be a blow to the rotation, but Walker Buehler will return from his August 2022 Tommy John surgery at some point and perhaps one of the prospects grabs hold of a job. Martinez and Rojas will be subtracted from the position player side of things, but maybe one of the youngsters emerges there as well. It will make 2023 an interesting season to watch, both for the season itself and its future implications, which will be followed by an offseason where the top available free agent could be Shohei Ohtani.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
But, they at don’t spend on free agents – Some guys from another thread
highheat
“this year”, meaning it’s not beyond the realm of reason to suggest that there’s still some inclination for deals after this season to accommodate Ohtani; if they’re already over, no reason not to pick up an expiring contract or two come trade deadline time.
Big whiffa
Right ! Plus they have 6 top hundred prospects ready for trial this year. They got to see what they have with them too. Almost like some crazy baseball elitist rebuild for the dodgers. Have to admit I’m a little jelly
highheat
I’m personally a DBacks fan, but everyone has to admit the Dodgers are arguably the best developmental organization. Definitely something to look at to emulate; getting upset doesn’t do any good. Lol
Big whiffa
It’s unarguable imo. They are #1 (SD #2). Also shows how terrible Red Sox scouts are when it comes to return on betts trade
Sucks for Arizona being stuck in that division. MLB should get rid of divisions. That will create more parity
highheat
I’d have the Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Guardians, and Rays pretty close at the top for talent development (Brewers pitching dev puts in a solid bid, but it’s hard to tell overall who exactly is best). I don’t really see SD being that high, the majority of their lineup and rotation weren’t developed in house.
DBacks are getting up there as well; it looks like they’ve made some advancements in regard to developing hitters (and have Strom and McKay for pitching, OF defense, and baserunning instruction) in addition to a quality crop of talent.
New schedule adds more parity; looking forward to playing the Nationals, Pirates, Reds, and Royals more.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Mariners aren’t too shabby either.
Big whiffa
I agree high heat well said. I was leaning more toward drafting/scouting. I agree completely w what u said. We shall see if Arizona can keep up the development w top end talent
Simm
Your argument against the padres is they don’t have a lot of in-house players which is true. That’s because they have traded prospects rather than waiting and bringing them up. Doesn’t mean they don’t consistently have high end prospects. They literally built one of the best farms systems ever. They have traded a ton of prospects for players like…Soto, darvish, snell, mustrgrove, Nola, Grisham, cronenworth, hader, clevinger etc..
You can argue some of those trades were pad trades but they continue to have top end prospects.
highheat
@Simm
No offense, but if they truly did continue to have top end prospects, more than 9 players would be listed as Homegrown on the 40 man before Tatis Jr.’s reinstatement from the RL (per RosterResource, and one of those Homegrown players would likely be jettisoned to re-add Tatis). Only 2 of those 9 are projected currently to be on the Active Roster, with neither of them being regulars.
It’s more Preller deals prospects with some degree of talent before they lose too much value, and then papers over the rest of the holes with high-end FA signings. It’s not nearly the same developmental success as the top 6 teams I listed, because they seem to maximize positives outcomes for all types of players (even the ones with underwhelming overall talent).
Terry B
Dodgers will be just fine! Trust the process, Friedman will figure it out!
Datashark
I can see them moving Treinen and/or Hudson for a quality player
Texas Outlaw
Bauer…. is anyone going to sign him?
sugoi51
I don’t know, maybe the A’s? It might work out as the fanbase is down, they’d get him for the minimum and then flip him for prospects at the deadline to a contending team that publicly swore off signing him at the outset. I hope nobody does, but I can see that scenario happening.
BlueSkies_LA
Most of the GMs who’ve been asked about this either say no comment or no way. I can see a team out of contention with nothing to lose, possibly. But even for him to get that chance he needs admit to his lack of judgement, which I just don’t see him doing.
Yankee Clipper
I don’t think anyone will this year – too much heat. But, much like the Astros players’ scandal I think a majority of people will move on by next season and consider it old news.
BlueSkies_LA
But will the teams? Have to keep in mind, his sin against baseball was violating his employment terms and then being aggressively unrepentant about it. No surer way to become unpopular with the team owners than thumbing your nose at the rules.
Yankee Clipper
Blue, although I agree wholeheartedly with you, I don’t trust these guys to take advantage of a good player for cheaper because he doesn’t have many options in the table. I just don’t think the owners’ (not implying all, but at least a few) moral compasses are that dialed in.
I will clarify that I don’t think it’ll be easy for him and it wouldn’t surprise me if no team gave him a shot either – but if I had to bet on one, I’d bet on him being back at some point.
Also to clarify, I don’t think his actions are analogous to what the Astros players did either – I am speaking generally and based on the universal negativity that they faced for their actions and how quickly people tend to move on. Definitely a different set of circumstances, however.
Yankee Clipper
“trust these guys to take advantage ”
Sorry, it should read “trust these guys to *not* take advantage…”
BlueSkies_LA
The other way to think about it is he’s unreliable and consequently bad for business. Both the players and the owners are invested in the domestic violence policy and neither wants to see one player undermine it by pretending that it doesn’t apply to him. He dug himself into this hole and he just keeps digging.
VegasMoved
No.
rememberthecoop
When these sites estimate luxury tax thresholds, do they take into account the roughly 16.5M for medical & another X amount for other things? I forget what all goes into the calculation but it’s more than payroll
socalbum
They did for this article
soxfan1
It’s a total of the salaries, not other expenses
Doug
Should have passed on Syndergaard, as they have plenty of good arms in the pipeline.
socalbum
What other answer was Friedman going to give to that question?
drasco036
The Dodgers would be pretty stupid not to dip under the luxury tax this season which is very un-Friedman like.
Of course, I can’t imagine many teams helping the Dodgers out with this right now knowing that the Dodgers would be coming out guns blazing for the top free agents next season.
It’s surprising to me the Dodgers didn’t take on a player option to Kershaws contract valued at 10 million.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
After I posted the above comment, it showed up twice. Now one of them is gone. I’m an edit idiot, can’t seem to always make it work
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
After I posted the above comment, now that comment is gone. For all that is baseball, what am I doing wrong???? WTH???
JoeBrady
I think it is the website. When I post, I sometime see 3-4 of the same thing, but the extras disappear later.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
@Joe, my originals disappeared & my apologies remained. I come off as an idiot apologizing for posts that aren’t there! Oh well, I’ve been a fool before, it just makes me more humble
Cleon Jones
, I’ve been a fool before, it just makes me more humble
——————–
Nice to know Im not the only one.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
To me, Cartaya, Vargas, Stone and Miller should be off-limits for anyone other than Ohtani.
But if they can package Pages, Grove or Pepiot with Treinan to get under the luxury tax threshold, I think it would be a smart move.
socalbum
Not Pepiot
Sunday Lasagna
Agreed, I know many regard Stone and Miller higher but watching Pepiot pitch last year he is a command tweak away from being really good.
Cam
Thankfully you’re not a GM – moving a top prospect like you suggest for cash relief would cause a revolt in LA.
BlueSkies_LA
It would also be ridiculously counterproductive.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Blue Skies
If cutting five million this year allows you to spend 300 million next year, it is not counterproductive.
And if you are not going to cut five million, then sign Chafin for the bullpen and Wacha for depth now.
BlueSkies_LA
And give up potentially a big part of your cost controlled future? Not such a great plan.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
You can’t have everything.
If next year the Dodgers want to sign four out of Urias, Kershaw, Darvish, Ohtani and Machado, then getting under the luxury tax is a factor. Cut five million now to spend an extra 80 million next year after the Bauer money is off.
By the way, I think both Machado and Urias could be had for Ohtani money.
BlueSkies_LA
I understand what you are saying but it depends on who they have to give up. If it’s one of the top prospects in the system then it seems counterproductive. I was responding to that point.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
It is always a question of keeping your elite prospects and being flexible with your very good but not elite prospects.
BlueSkies_LA
Sure, but a couple things on that. First, The Dodgers gave Treinan an extension for 2024 valued as low as $1M. So for CBT accounting purposes he’s around a $4.5M charge this year. I also wonder if moving that dead contract (for 2023 at least) can be realistically accomplished with a middle-level prospect. The offset is at least $9M.
amk1920
Dodgers are not the Rays. They don’t need to trade talented prospects to get under the tax. Paying luxury tax this season will have zero impact on potentially signing Ohtani. You got for him regardless.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I am talking about getting under the tax so that you can have a massive increase in spending the next year. If not, then why play coy now? Unless they have huge mid season acquisitions. Let’s assume Ohtani won’t be available mid season and you want to keep prospects, what stars will be available mid season just for money? Few if any. Burnes would cost prospects, lots of them. Even Ian Happ would cost prospects.
Motor City Beach Bum
Salary dump…Chris Taylor shipped out with Cartaya and Vargas to the Tigers for the Meadows brothers and a flier. I got tired of bugging Cards fans about the Tigers picking up Gorman inva similar deal 😉
socalbum
Obviously a trade dreamed up by a Tigers fan.
BlueSkies_LA
… on a bender.
The Saber-toothed Superfife
Obviously. I don’t know which is more hallucinatory, the ask or the idea Chris Illich intends on investing in his team, the Tigers.
JoeBrady
Not remotely close.
Motor City Beach Bum
You guys sooooo overvalue your prospects! Hahaha. Come trade deadline time you’ll regret it 😉 The Tigers are pretty much already out of it so dreaming is the best I get this year. .500 record IF everything breaks right.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I would not trade Cartaya and Vargas for Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar even if the Pirates paid their salaries down to zero and took Treinan in the deal. I see Cartaya as a future all-star
mlbdodgerfan2015
They probably did want to reset the CBT but then the Bauer reversal occurred. Now all the good free agents are gone. Only route to improve is via trade, which may or may not happen. Takes two to tango.
YourDreamGM
They could have signed cheaper free agents.
mlbdodgerfan2015
True, but perhaps the Bauer uncertainty led them to stay put. Also, they wouldn’t have been able to spend much if their original intent was to stay under. What another $15mm or so?
You also need to take everything with a grain of salt because no team is going to ever say that they’re trying to stay under the CBT, at least not before the season. Everything is spun positively. Maybe years later.
YourDreamGM
Have to plan for the worst. It won’t make or break them either way.
dirkg
We can play along with the song and dance, but everyone knows the Dodgers are quiet because they will be driving full force at Shohei.
They will outbid everyone. Even Uncle Steve.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
You would like a record breaking albatross contract to add to that payroll ???
scottn59c
The guy is truly the latter-day Babe Ruth. He’s proven himself at the MLB level, and there’s a reason every contending team is going to be in on his free agency. Any contract can be an albatross, but this guy can do it all, and he’s got at least twice the utility of even the best of any other available free agents, given that he can hit and pitch extremely well.
LAD and NYY have traditionally been the big dogs in MLB, and one of those destinations is probably where Ohtani wants to be. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he ends up in Dodger Blue. He can keep his LA mansion and play for a perennial contender.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Munetaka is a better hitter than Shohei. Shohei is worth a lot less as a DH than as a position player.
I would much rather have Pete Alonso and Yu Darvish
Or Freddie Freeman and Julio Urias
Or Machado and Rodon
And Shohei will get a contract bigger than any of those pairings. It is only worth it if you can profit from the international interest.
He’s a MVP, just not a 500 million player to me.
The Saber-toothed Superfife
Yeah. All of the sudden, about 7 years ago,….somehow, people on these sites started screaming about players should get these ridiculous contracts like they were rock stars or movies stars….calling them entertainers…..(BUT THESE entertainers =leaving nothing of intrisic value)….and screaming billionaire greedy owners.
Since then, my costs have SKYROCKETED.
dirkg
I agree. Baseball has their Michael Jordan in Shohei. He’s Tiger Woods. He needs to be on a stage where he can become the household face of MLB. Trout is too quiet and while I like Judge, he is pretty robotic.
Baseball needs Shohei to be its poster boy.
I’ve seen enough LeBron AT&T commercials, thank you. I don’t need to see Charles Barkley try to sell me a Subway sandwich. Baseball needs to market Shohei. Stat.
Jack Dawkins
Otani was never motivated by riches as far as I can tell. His motivation was to practice his craft at the highest level. He wasn’t hiding from pressure by signing with the Angels either. He wanted to sign somewhere that would give him a legitimate shot at playing both ways. He also wanted to pitch in a 6 man rotation while maintaining his own training regimen. Apparently my favorite team and several other finalists did not signal their commitment to his asks but the Angels did. Bal Harbour in Newport Beach is a really nice place too. If I lived there I would hate to move elsewhere.
Fortunately Dodger Stadium is only an hour drive from his place in Newport. Padres are a long 90 minute drive from his current residence.
All that said, there hasn’t been any reporting about his feelings about the other 29 big league cities he has visited over the last few years that I’ve seen. I do get the feeling that if he doesn’t like your town, he won’t sign there. Maybe all the homeless in LA offends his sensibilities and the Angels make it to the league finals. Then what? If money alone would get it done Cohen wins but Shohei has more complex reasons than that.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Mariners were his second choice last time he got to choose.
Jack Dawkins
Yes Seattle has a nice marina like Newport Beach if that’s one of the things he’s interested in. There is also a large Japanese presence there. Closer to Tokyo too. I can see that happening.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Last time, the NL was in limited play with no DH. I think Moreno will re-sign him by the All-Star break, but if not, Mets, Padres, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers, those are my front-runners.
88dodgers
Freidman the genius extended treinen last yr when he was on the injured list. So it’s totally his fault we’re above the cbt. Who the hell does that?
mlbdodgerfan2015
Well, that was a puzzling move. Really, there was no need to extend Treinen when he was on the DL and no certainty that he could come back in 2022. And you’d think that they contemplated the possibility that he attempt a comeback late in 2022 that failed and he would need surgery and be out for 2023. Sometimes it seems like the Dodgers are in the non-profit sector. The amount of money they pay to pitchers who don’t pitch the entire season is second to none.
nbresnak
Let’s the solid prospects play and if any of them don’t reach their full potential, then go out and get reinforcements mid-season. The Dodgers are stacked with that veteran prospect mix that Dave Roberts will need to manage to reach their maximum potential!
Looking forward to seeing how it works out as a baseball fan. Not even a Dodgers fan.
Jack Dawkins
Assuming that marinas are important I think the Rangers are out. Some how that cowboy hat just looked odd on him. As far as winning culture, the Dodgers are the only solid qualifier. Mets got money but he has demonstrated that is not the deciding factor. Maybe he and Seiya are best buds. All I can do is hope the Angels crater to force Moreno’s hand. Then we all got a shot at the unicorn.
99socalfrc
A couple salary dumps at the trade deadline will for sure happen. If Taylor plays well out of the gate he’ll be gone by May 31.
The Dodgers are going to get kicked right in the nuts by the Padres this year. No way they go past the deadline over the tax if they are 10-12 games back.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I think Dodgers-Padres will be close down the stretch, but even if you disagree it seems highly likely that the Dodgers would make the Wild Card.
Let’s say the Padres and Mets win divisions. Phillies, Atlanta and Los Angeles are still odds-on to make playoffs.
YourDreamGM
Playoff teams could be same as last year. A 3 game wild card is definitely worth going over the tax. I still have LA winning division but much closer than last year.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Yeah, I think Dodgers and Padres will both win in the mid to high 90s.
99socalfrc
The Dodgers have done nothing but subtract players, They are galaxies behind the team that they rolled out last year. I know people want to look past this because they are the Dodgers but let’s just reality check a little bit here.
They had 5 guys with an OPS over .788 last year. Two of those guys are gone now.
Trea Turner was a 5 WAR shortstop last season, gone.
Lux and Smith are good players, but the Dodgers offense at this point basically amounts to Betts, Freeman and nothing else. Muncy has hit below .200 twice in the last three seasons. Taylor is probably best described a well payed utility player.
Their pitching looks better than the offense, but it’s not a slam dunk. They’ll have to replace 28 starts and 178 innings of 2.57 ERA ball pitched by Tyler Anderson, they have no Buehler. Kershaw is Kershaw but he is probably good for 120 innings and no more.
If we assume they will find a way with the rotation, the real issue is beyond that. The bullpen is an unmitigated disaster, there is no way around it. The Padres are going to be running some combination of Hader, Suarez, Nick Martinez, Luis Garcia, Lugo, Tim Hill, Pomeranz and Morejon on any given day. I know they are the Dodgers, and they’ll pull something out of a hat, but noone in their right mind could argue the bullpens are even in the same zip code right now.
99socalfrc
I’d also argue that Roberts may be past his expiration as the Dodgers manager. He has surely been successful with an abundance of talent on the roster, but that is different this year. His job is going to get more involved than just turning in the lineup card the front office built for him full of All Stars & MVP candidates.
BlueSkies_LA
So long as he implements the Friedman game plan he will keep his job.
Jack Dawkins
If you want to can Roberts, we should wait until Otani’s destination is decided. Dave’s mom is Japanese and could be useful in recruiting him.