The D-Backs have opened discussions with rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll about a potential long-term extension, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Neither the numbers under consideration nor likelihood of a deal coming together are known, though Piecoro cautions no agreement appears imminent.
It’s no surprise to hear Arizona would like to keep Carroll around for even longer than their allotted six seasons of club control. The Snakes selected the 22-year-old in the first round of the 2019 draft and quickly saw him blossom into one of the sport’s most touted young players. Carroll combined for a .307/.425/.611 line in the minors last season, earning his first major league call in late August. He made it into 32 big league games, starting off with a .260/.330/.500 showing with four home runs through his first 115 plate appearances.
Carroll is now cemented on the major league roster. Arizona dealt Daulton Varsho to Toronto for young catcher Gabriel Moreno, thanks in large part to their surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders. Piecoro writes that Carroll is ticketed for left field work during the upcoming season, presumably leaving center field to Alek Thomas and right field to some combination of Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Kyle Lewis.
Among that group, none is more highly-regarded than Carroll. Each of Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic slotted him among the game’s top three prospects this offseason, with The Athletic’s Keith Law naming him the sport’s best rookie talent. Carroll is regarded as a potential face-of-the-franchise player, with evaluators effusive in their praise for his contact skills, power and athleticism.
The D-Backs already control the Seattle native at least through the 2028 season. He won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2025 campaign at the earliest. Arizona surely doesn’t envision sending Carroll back to the minors, though if he struggles and winds up demoted at any point, his path to arbitration and/or free agency could be delayed further.
Even if Carroll is in the majors to stay, the six-year control window means the Snakes aren’t facing any urgency to keep him off the market. That said, the chances of pushing back his path to free agency would only figure to decrease over time if Carroll performs at the level the organization expects.
It’s not uncommon for teams to try to hammer out early-career deals with young players of this caliber. A handful of players have signed extensions even before making their MLB debuts, with Luis Robert securing the largest guarantee among that subset of players. Robert — regarded by Baseball America as the game’s #2 prospect at the time — signed a six-year, $50MM guarantee that included a pair of club options over the 2019-20 offseason to extend Chicago’s window of control by two seasons. Carroll already has a bit of MLB success under his belt and is assured of a major league roster spot heading into next season. It stands to reason his camp would aim higher than the Robert deal, particularly since the extension market has advanced over the past couple years.
Rays shortstop Wander Franco and Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez have signed massive extensions within the last 14 months. Franco’s deal guaranteed $182MM over 11 years and included a club option for a 12th season. Rodríguez’s deal was more complex, guaranteeing $210MM over 12 years and including a number of club/player options that could keep him in Seattle for an eye-popping 18 seasons.
The Franco extension more closely aligns with where Carroll is at in his career. Rodríguez had already made Seattle’s Opening Day roster before signing his extension midway through last season. He was well on his way to the Rookie of the Year award and was certain to accrue a full year of service time, essentially putting him in the 1-2 year service bucket at signing.
Franco, on the other hand, signed his deal over an offseason when he had some MLB time but less than a full year of service. That makes Carroll an apples-to-apples comparison from a service perspective, although the Tampa Bay shortstop arguably had a stronger negotiating platform than the Arizona outfielder does now. Franco had played in a little more than twice as many MLB games as Carroll has, suiting up 70 times for the Rays during his debut season. He’d hit .288/.347/.463 with seven homers and a minuscule 12% strikeout rate over 308 regular season plate appearances and posted an OPS north of 1.100 in four playoff games.
That’s a more robust MLB résumé than Carroll has yet been able to accrue. Franco was also a year younger last winter than Carroll is now and arguably an even more highly-regarded prospect. Franco had ranked as the sport’s #1 prospect at Baseball America in both 2020 and ’21. He’d also played in 82 more minor league games than Carroll has. That’s attributable to a 2021 labrum tear for the Diamondback, one which required season-ending surgery after just seven High-A games.
Clearly, Carroll showed no ill effects of that procedure in 2022. He rebounded with an excellent season and is now universally regarded as one of the league’s top young talents. Yet Franco was probably a slightly safer long-term bet at the time of his contract — thanks both to the absence of any serious injuries on his history and his lengthier big league track record.
The Braves worked out a long-term deal with the eventual National League Rookie of the Year last summer as well. Michael Harris II signed for eight years and $72MM with a pair of club options in August. Harris had less than a year of service at the time of his deal but his eventual award win would earn him a full service year at season’s end. He’d already established himself as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder at the time of his contract, though his offensive projection is perhaps a bit more uncertain than Carroll’s. Harris carried an excellent .287/.325/.500 line in 268 MLB plate appearances at the time of his contract, albeit with some questions about the sustainability of his .345 average on balls in play.
Arizona’s long-term payroll outlook is wide open. The D-Backs have just $42MM in estimated commitments on the books by the 2024 season, according to Roster Resource. Only Ketel Marte has a guaranteed deal that runs beyond ’24, with respective salaries of $16MM, $16MM and $14MM between 2025-27. Arizona will open this season with a player payroll around $119MM, so there’s certainly room on the books for an extension for a player whom the organization views as a cornerstone.
That might all prove a moot point if Carroll and his camp aren’t anxious to negotiate a longer-term agreement. It’s possible he’d prefer to bet on himself to establish more of a track record before discussing an extension, particularly since he received a signing bonus worth just under $3.75MM out of high school. Whether negotiations progress will make for an interesting subplot to D-Backs’ camp over the coming weeks.
Just manipulate his service time instead.
Horrible comment
I see you are new to disagreement. You don’t have to engage in conversation with everyone you disagree with. Since you did, why? Kris Bryant got his money and is set for life. Players who perform almost always get paid, and many get overpaid during free agency. Saying owners are evil because they are even more successful isn’t a real response here.
I think this is a real factor actually. The player know if he’s been extended he’ll be starting opening day. If not…I’m sure they’d never be dumb enough to say it out loud but it becomes an option. He struggles a bit? Maybe send him down for a couple months, maybe his defense needs some work, maybe….
Always wondered about Bryant. West Coast guy n’ all. Born in Vegas, lives in Cali….
Why exactly did he sign w/ Colorado? Sure the most money flies up…
But did he prefer the west?
Did he say Colorado, close enough/awesome?
Did he say lord really Colorado?
Did he recognize his body was not right and said eff it?
I forget when he signed exactly who was in on him besides SF, but who else was around? I just remember when he did sign it was like “who & how much?”
Money. Nobody was offering anything close to what Colorado did. If Philadelphia or another Team elsewhere had offered the same deal and nobody came close, he’d take the money.
Kinda guessed that, just forgot who else was sniffing around? There was SF and whispers of Philly, don’t remember who else….?
As primarily a beach guy and looking around the rest of the league, as far as to where I’d “want” to live…..Colorado would fill out my top 10 I guess….
I think your comment was not perceived as constructive and therefore not contributing to a meaningful discussion.
Start service time when the professional career starts. After 6 years (or however many years) as a professional (major or minor league) players become free agents.
Eliminates the temptation of messing with service time
I think that would work but not at 6 years, that’s the current MLB service interval. You’d probably have to do 8 or 9 years at least to account for time in the minors. Actually, it would be pretty cool to do 8 years for college draftees and 10 years for HS, 12 for international signees. That would be pretty equal. The other equal opportunity way to do it is by age. The owners did propose that in collective bargaining this time, they proposed everybody would just become a free agent at age 29 across the board and do away with service time. Not a bad idea but it didn’t fly with players.
Obviously, the guys like Soto wouldn’t get to collect an extra 100-150 million, so the union said no. They do seem way way way more interested in breaking records than actually helping the regular people. They care more about the rich millionaires than the poor ones, sadly. I would like the 9 year thing, though. Btw, I think 5 years of minor league service time makes one a minor league free agent, but I’m not 100% sure.
If you’d like to be technical, the service time manipulation has already occurred; he would gain a full year of service time if he’s top 2 in RotY, so they kept his Rookie eligibility intact while getting him as many MLB PAs as they could.
This has me thinking about what would happen to existing contracts were there to be a salary cap in the future.
It’s an interesting thought, but I wouldn’t spend too much time thinking about it. I just can’t see the players’ association agreeing to a cap, even with a floor.
Caps are a waste of time, anyways. Teams are able to manipulate around them with staggered payments, bonuses, etc.
So many huge long term contracts does complicate a cap even if the union could be convinced to agree to a cap.
Simple
Hockey had that issue a decade ago when they first instituted a cap.
They allowed each club the opportunity to (pay for) cancel up to I think it was 3 (maybe 2) contracts making them FA and not have the salary count against the new cap.
The MLB player’s union is much more powerful and isn’t likely to allow cancelling contracts. Any of this would trigger a very damaging strike where no one wins.
Not canceled as in the players loses out.
Canceled as in, player A gets his 7/145 or 3/105 remaining paid to him, Over time as agreed.
However he’s now a FA, able to sign anywhere including his former team but his previous salary isn’t counted towards the cap
Now obviously that’s a great deal for the player as they can essentially double dip
But it’s not going to be used on your superstars, just your former ones in decline or that true Davis or Strasburg type deal
Owners still paying, just not counted towards the new cap
Carroll is the real deal. I hope he bets on himself if the offer isn’t at least in the Franco range.
Yeah it definitely looks like the Diamondbacks are going to keep the right guy. No way I would trade him right now either.
So, Cap, what are you guessing it would take to sign him to an extension this early in his career?
@rememberthecoop- I hear he’s the real deal, you tell me what seems fair to you? It’s pretty crazy to give him a Wander Franco contract already. Lmk
Those guys had MLB success before being extended.
I know.
And they got huge deals. Arizona is probably hopeful they can argue small sample, injury risk, etc. for a more team-friendly extension than what those two got.
I don’t want to see that.
I really don’t get that part. How are millionaires so relatable to the general populace? I’d always cheer for a cheap extension. Why are so many trying to give their money to players? I’d relate more with the owners as a shareholder, as players come off as more like CEOs than the typical average Joe, while owners are just like many of us in trying to get profits.
Are you a business owner?
That is one strange take.
The players are the product. They’re the best in the world and I pay to see them.
In the summer, deGrom has a lemonade stand in his parents’ driveway.
I own stocks, so I am technically a business owner. I also have company stock. I am more financially vested in that company’s performance than in seeing the CEO take home more pay, but each person has different priorities.
Your analogy is flawed. The players aren’t the CEOs. They’re the employees producing the product.
And, no, the fact that you own stocks like most of us do does not make you the owner of the companies you’re invested in, unless you own at least 51% of the stock or belong to an ownership group that holds a majority of the stock. If you believe otherwise, try to call a meeting of the board of directors.
I am a part owner, not a majority owner. Look at how teams often ha e majority and minority owners. They don’t just have 1. Even the Mets have many “owners.”
You might think of yourself as a business owner, but I expect that the IRS has different ideas.
And, again, your analogy is flawed. The players are not the CEOs — i.e., Chief Operating Officers. They’re the unionized workers producing the product, which, in their case, is athletic entertainment.
Your preference for the owners of the teams over the players seems odd to this fan; but then, there are a lot of Americans who’ve been induced to idealize management and idolize billionaires, so perhaps you fit in that niche. From your comments, it appears possible, if not likely.
It’s quite the opposite. I don’t idolize owners, though I do think hard work (most cases) should be rewarded. Literally every single baseball site and media site demonized the owners, including this one. If anything, most people here are brainwashed by millionaire propaganda and those poor players getting an average 10% raise a year, while the rest of us get less. I don’t idolize billionaires in any way; they just look to make money, and increasing salaries for athletes just results in having to pay hundreds of dollars for a team jersey if we choose to buy one. Consider this as a fan: you probably want to pay less. Journalists have brainwashed you into thinking the opposite. Some of us think for ourselves instead of letting uneducated middle school dropout journalists tell us what to think.
“I do think hard work (most cases) should be rewarded.”
The “work” in a Major League Baseball game, and in the years-long preparation for it, is done by the athletes, whose careers usually begin with years of toiling in the minors.
blessyouboys.com/2022/3/14/22973710/all-the-detail…
“Literally every single baseball site and media site demonized the owners, including this one.”
Give us an example of demonization of the owners by the writers on this site.
“Consider this as a fan: you probably want to pay less. Journalists have brainwashed you into thinking the opposite.”
Are you sure you’re not the one who’s been brainwashed?
“The players are getting killed in the battle of public opinion, which has been the case for 50 years of threatened baseball work stoppages. Fans repeatedly side with billionaire owners over the millionaire players, believing in their romanticized version of America’s Pastime that players are spoiled and should be happy just to be paid to play a “game.” Of course, baseball is a business—and has been for a century. And lately, business has been very good.”
forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2020/05/29/mlb-ow…
· MLB revenues have soared from $8.2 billion in 2015 to over $10.7 billion in 2019, a 30 percent increase
· Player salaries have decreased by 6.4 percent, with the average salary declining from $4.45 million to $4.17 million during the span of the current CBA.
· The median salary has fallen from $1.65 million in 2015 to $ 1.15 million in 2021, a decline of 30 percent.
· 54 percent of players in MLB are not yet eligible for arbitration, earning near the minimum salary.
· 13 teams had payrolls under $100 million for the 2021 season. Five teams spent less than $50 million.
· Three teams spent less than $17 million on their 26 man major league payroll according to Spotrac. These teams are simply not trying to win.
· The Players Association filed a grievance against the A’s, the Pirates, the Marlins, and Rays over how they have invested their revenue-sharing dollars in recent years. The CBA requires “each Club shall use its revenue sharing receipts … in an effort to improve its performance on the field.”
blessyouboys.com/2021/12/16/22831008/mlbs-revenue-…
If you think the players, not the owners, are the reason prices keep rising at the stadium, think again.
“Under current generally accepted accounting principles, I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss, and I can get every national accounting firm to agree with me.”
—Paul Beeston, Former President of the Toronto Blue Jays
Listen, I understand why you dump on the players. The top salaries are obscene. Those of us far from that financial stratosphere naturally find those salaries repellent. But that’s a function of the screwed-up economics approved by both ownership and players in the CBA. The fact is, ownership of a major league team is an investment, the ultimate value of which is determined when the franchise is sold. The owners wouldn’t agree to the terms in the CBA if they weren’t making money.
Case in point: Jeffrey Loria bought the Marlins for $158 million 2002. He got the taxpayers of Miami-Dade to underwrite the cost of a new stadium. He sold the franchise in 2017 for $1.2 billion — 7.6 times what he paid for it. And after the sale, he had the nerve to claim that he made no money on the sale.
P.S.
“Some of us think for ourselves instead of letting uneducated middle school dropout journalists tell us what to think.”
This is a contemptible statement for which you’ll apologize here if you have any integrity.
I do genuinely apologize to those unfortunate people who ha e not had the privilege of attending school. They certainly don’t deserve to be compared to journalists. That was a low blow, and I regret demeaning those individuals.
If your goal was to confirm your lack of integrity, mission accomplished.
Laughable. Everyone wants to be the Braves now.
if there is a team you would like to run your franchise like it would definitely be the Atlanta braves.
Every team looks for market deficiencies. After the 2015 Royals it was the three headed elite bullpen, for the past decade it has been hiring player personnel from the Rays/Astros, now we see it with the Braves and locking up young talent. Though, you could argue the Astros started that too with Jon Singleton and the Braves have simply taken it to the extreme. But the more confusing thing about your comment is that it would be more laughable if other teams WEREN’T trying to gain/narrow market advantages that other teams are employing with success.
So, they shouldn’t try to extend a potentially top player at a reasonable rate early in his career because the Braves have already done that with their guys?
What is laughable to me is that Caroll spent three weeks in the majors and they want to throw over 100,000,000+ at him. It’s a huge risk to take when you have six years of control over a player with a small sample size.
Are you sure? The Braves look good now with yip getting talent locked up but what happens if those locked up guys fall off in performance and aren’t worth their contracts? We won’t know for years if the “lock up the young talent” strategy will pay off.
This is funny stuff! Should see what he can do in the majors before thinking about offering an extension. Dude only has 104 career AB’s.
Depends on how much they offer him. I would personally wait until after this season and see what he does.
If he’s willing to take the money before the season for financial security, that would be the preferable option for the team; he’d command a significantly higher price next offseason, and would be closer to FA (which are more results and leverage than he’d have right now).
I’d hope they’re taking care as to not offer any insulting amounts (like the Bryan Reynolds situation), because whatever amount they get him signed to is likely a bargain compared to what he would command through arbitration (or if a deal takes place one year from now).
Couldn’t agree more. Granted he is one of the top prospects in baseball, but I’d give it a full season before even thinking about a long term deal. Too many “top prospects” flame out after their debut.
Let’s see…. An early hot streak against pitchers unfamiliar with the player, a tiny sample size… It’d have to be a record, like 15 years.
16 years/$300M of which part is a $5M signing bonus and a $5M buyout on a $35M option.
Why not? It’s the modern trend that will totally work out with surplus value in every single instance.
I’m glad the Rangers didn’t extend Profar since he was a top prospect who had lots of MLB success… in his first MLB at bat.
My only concern about Carroll is the long term effect on his elite speed. Elite speed is probable the first skill to start deteriorating over time, wear and tear and injuries. Right now elite speed is Carroll’s calling card.
I don’t think that’s a marketable skill over an 11 to 18 year contract length. So I’d rather see the Dbacks go for a higher annual value contract over a shorter year term, say $160M over 8 years with a couple of club option years tacked on.
Did you seriously bring up the notion of an 18 year contract for a player that has played in a grand total of 32 MLB games? Even an 8 year deal is ridiculous at this moment. There is a reason that teams pay guys near the minimum salary for the first three years. It is because most of them don’t make it past those first three years. I get that Carroll is a big prospect, but jeez. This is just dumb.
I should remind you that the first 6 years are free, and there are 3 arb years. Since he is just a prospect with a full season worth of at bats the last two seasons in the minors and a handful in the majors, assume an average of 35 million. So, you are saying paying an additional 135 million over 3 years is worth it? I’d say even the free agent market can’t be that bad. Team control does really really really matter, something many completely ignore. Yoshida is said to have been overpaid, and he got a similar AAV as a free agent. Think about that.
*Three of the first 6 years are almost free
And that’s 125 million over 3 years, more like Scherzer AAV, but still pretty bad
It would be a fine team/player win contract provided that the player doesn’t go down the Singleton/Evan White performance path, or the Nick Senzel injury path.
You can do everything right and still lose big. Look at the Reds with Homer Bailey, people say that was a stupid contract, and yes it was one that went bad in a hurry, but when it was signed at that moment it looked like the right play. Bailey was trending upward and had just come off a strong season
For these long term deals to unproven players to work teams must pay for the players perceived floor, and not their ceiling.
I’m also a little surprised that he’s being moved to LF, I thought that he was the better defender of the group that the Diamondbacks have in CF.
It’s more in deference to the fact that Thomas was GG runner-up in CF (and that Carroll was better defensively on a rate basis than anyone in MLB in LF).
Gurriel Jr. is likely to get all of the LHP PAs there and a good portion of the RHP ones as well, (with Smith getting time there as well, and Carroll moving over when Thomas is in the lineup).
I think that, as much as his speed is a calling card, so too is his elite bat-to-ball skills. He’s a pure hitter with some pop. The pop may decline, but the bat-to-ball skills, if as good as advertised, should allow him to age gracefully even after his wheels decline some.
Agreed on the bat to ball, he also has a pretty disciplined batting approach (with a strong batting eye); while he is not nearly comparable to Mookie Betts in either of those regards, he should be able to overperform his raw power when everything is going at its best.
Even if his speed does trend down, it’s still likely to stay well above average (and his OF defense was as much about route running as it was speed).
I think AZ is probably hoping they have some version of Mookie Betts on their hands. Hugely optimistic of course, but if they are right they have an excellent player to build around.
If you’re interested about the AZ system, FanGraphs just published an interview with Josh Barfield (Director of DBacks Player Development, yes son of Jesse) that was pretty insightful.
He said if Carroll was 6’3″ he’d probably get Grady Sizemore comps (very high praise) and it seems that they’re as high on Blaze Alexander sticking at SS as I am. Can’t wait to watch that dude play when he’s called up. I particularly enjoyed the comments on Lawlar’s baserunning.
I think Lawlar’s (so far) horrible defense makes them think he might be a 3B long term…especially since Alexander is figuring out how to hit and is already an excellent defender.
Saying Lawlar has a worse arm than Alexander isn’t an insult; it’s just a fact of life for most everyone unfortunate enough to be compared to Blaze.
Lawlar is still lacking a little in the reps department; not everybody can comeback from injury with a vengeance like Carroll did.
Reports I’ve seen is he’s extremely error-prone in and of himself. Not necessarily comparisons to Alexander’s abilities.
@ Wagner>Cobb
That’s an area where lack of reliable defensive metrics for MiLB is unfortunate; saying that he’s error prone in and of itself doesn’t necessarily tell us anything.
Were they throwing errors? Were they fielding errors? Was the ball consistently over/under thrown? Were fielding errors from poor footwork? Poor posture? Poor transfer? Poor reads off the bat? Lack of aggression/patience? How many of the errors are the product of greater than average range? How many were from playing the shift?
He doesn’t have a ton reps in the field, he had a shoulder injury, he’ll only be 21 next season, and he’s been pushed aggressively (so defending against better and/or more developed hitters). It’s a bit early for a scouting report that strictly reads he’s error prone.
10/250 seems like the floor
As a Rockies fan, I seriously hope Arizona does that. It will screw up their payroll for most of the next decade unless Carroll becomes an MVP contender, which has about a 2% of happening.
Carroll has future superstar written all over him. Where do you come up with this lowly 2% figure on his chances of being an MVP contender? If you’re a Rockies fan you’ve got a lot more to worry about than screwing up Arizona’s payroll. Carroll is more talented than anyone on the Rockies entire roster.
I watched him play and I am not worried. To be honest, I think McCarthy is better than him.
So, you dismiss in-depth analysis by professional scouts as nothing more than opinions (referring to the interaction over Frelick), but your own small-sample eye-test tells you all you need to know?
Brilliant.
I feel as though Arizona would just buy out his Arbitration years with an extension, possibly 1 or 2 FA years if this deal is done in ‘24 or ‘25. The Snakes also want a team-friendly contract in case of a collapse and resulting fire-sale.
I certainly wanted Carroll over Varsho. So that tells me Carroll is probably worth a solid 10 year deal with 30-35 million as the FA buy out years, so if the first 7 years would net him 40 million anyway, you’re looking at 105 for the last 3
10/145. If he says no, 12/225. If he says no again….
You pray you win a WS before 7 years passes
D’backs can do a lot of mixing and matching with their lineup with Longoria/Lewis/Gurriel from the right side and Rojas/Thomas/McCarthy from the left side
It could be an early Christmas, Carroll.
Quite the OF collection stacking up:
-Gurriel Jr. (1 year left)
-Lewis (4 years left)
-Smith (5 years left)
-Carroll (6 years left)
-McCarthy (6 years left)
-Thomas (6 years left)
-Fletcher (yet to reach MLB)
-Barrosa (yet to reach MLB)
-Robinson (returning from Restricted)
-Canzone (yet to reach 40-man; R5)
-Jones (returning from Injury)
Rebounds from Gurriel Jr. and/or Lewis would be huge for future deals since they’re not likely getting extensions, and there’s no need to rush Jones with everybody actually worthy of PAs.
The IF isn’t a half bad collection either:
-Ahmed (1 year left)
-Longoria (1 year left)
-Walker (2 years left)
-Rojas (4 years left)
-Marte (5 years left)
-Rivera (5 years left)
-Perdomo (6 years left)
-Castillo (6 years left)
-Beer (6 years left)
-Alexander (yet to reach MLB)
-Lawlar (yet to reach 40-man)
-De Los Santos (yet to reach 40-man; R5)
-Kennedy (6 years left; R5)
-Vukovich (yet to reach 40-man)
-English (yet to reach 40-man; R5)
Plenty of SS options (some with higher upside than others, but I count 5) and there has to be at least one 3B in there, right? Lol
C isn’t as deep a group, but:
-Kelly (2 years left)
-Moreno (6 years left)
-Herrera (6 years left)
-Miroglio (yet to reach 40-man; R5)
-Sanchez (not on 40-man; R5)
Last two are more depth names (albeit with intriguing offensive tools/skills), but the others have looked like competent MLB C gloves at bare minimum and Moreno has tremendous upside.
It’d be nice to get some cost certainty for Carroll (to know he’d be here for the long haul), but before long it’ll be necessary to start dealing expiring contracts and R5 eligibles.
What kind of talent any of said deals would bring back is yet to be determined, but those moves should be able to restock the system with appealing developmental projects at the very least (and clear salaries + playtime).
I wouldn’t be getting y’all’s hopes too high about AZ screwing up their payroll lol. Especially with the group of pitchers sitting at AAA (all of whom also have 6 years of control).
I really wanted Drew Jones or Elijah Green. Assuming you are a Diamondbacks’ fan, would you accept a trade of Brock Porter and Kumar Rocker for Drew Jones? Just curious
I am, but I would not take that. Jones hasn’t even started to get PAs and has the potential to be the #1 overall prospect in the sport.
I’d be hesitant to throw a trade scenario out there, because Texas is significantly higher on Rocker than the industry is.
I’m not a huge believer in Druw Jones, but I wouldn’t trade him yet. Still too early.
Corbin Carroll is going to smash it this year
Agreed on Carroll; DBacks have a few guys that look like they’re going to be studs.
The 2023 Dbacks probably have a floor of a .500 team and a ceiling of about 90 wins and a post-season contender. The 2024 Dbacks will add SP Brandon Pfaadt, SP Blake Walston, SS Jordan Lawler and OF Kristian Robinson. They will replace Ahmed, Gurriel, Davies and Bumgarner. With another year of that 2023 young core’s development factored in, the 2024 Dbacks have a floor of Wild Card and a ceiling of WS contender.
Take that Vegas over boiis! And throw some money on the NL Pennant line while you’re at it.
It’ll take a few breakouts and dropping Bumgarner from the rotation in order to even get into the playoff conversation; there are a lot of breakouts candidates with exceptional tools/stuff, though (and those are exactly the things that would need to happen for a sustained playoff run).
Is any of that likely? (Expletives) no, but a +7000 line on DK for a team that’s in range of .500, that’s also overloaded with potential for overperformance in regards to their projections is not a terrible bet.
And at that line, one doesn’t even need to throw much money down. What’s the payout on a $10 bet? Like $700? Why not.
– They need the rotation to be more than Gallen as a CY contender
– Good chance they extend Gurriel
– Unlikely that Pfaadt, Walston, Lawlar, and Robinson are substantial contributors until 2025, in my opinion. Pfaadt would be the likliest.
-The Merrill Kelly projections are low; every system has him projected to be more comparable to his worst season (his first back from KBO) than maintaining the year-over-year improvements he’s consistently shown. If one is betting on those odds, they’re after taking a chance on some breakouts, and: Jameson, Nelson, Pfaadt, Henry, and Walston all have some of the upside one would be looking for.
-Not a good chance they extend Gurriel Jr. The talent is piling up at AAA up into MLB, they are actually more likely to move higher priced vets with less team control than deal unestablished prospects or lose them in the R5.
-Players can not reach their peak potential and still be considered to have provided substantial contributions pending how their play time breaks down. Some players have that level of talent, and I’d be more inclined to say that the names you listed will get their foot in the door before 2025; even if they don’t quite reach the peak of their talent.
Remember, we’re all also operating under the assumption of this roster as is; they clearly have desirable enough prospects to deal for improvements if that’s the logical course of action.
This dude is such a freaking stud. And from everything our writers up here have always said; a high character, hard working good kid as well. I will be really interested in finding out the total amount ARI is willing to unload to lock this kid up. Been some crazy ones last few years and I’m not sure Corbin comes with as much hype and expectations as a Julio, Wander, or even KeBryan.
I don’t know man, he has 772 PA in his career (including MLB PAs); for projection systems to like him that much, that’s quite a bit of hype.
You should listen to his interviews; very thoughtful and considerate of his words, his character is evident after watching one.
@SODOMOJO
BTW how did you like those articles? Don’t be too harsh with criticisms, it is just a hobby lol
No I really enjoyed reading the Rojas article, Heath! Great use of stats and great organization top to bottom, good flow. Present argument; back up with stats. I would not have done much if anything to edit that. Is there a final edit process on that site with the editor? Did you work with them or is it it more you submit it, we’ll post it?
The only thing I could “suggest” I guess to make it “better” would be to come up with a more eye popping introduction. But, it’s a very analytical article and the first paragraph certainly “fits” and doesn’t decline the overall quality of the piece.
The other one I read of yours is the more “spacey” philosophy article; I enjoyed it! You are pretty open about the fact that you are just riffing, I enjoyed the read. I am more of a philosopher/big picture type guy so I identify with your perspective there.
You are a good writer! It’s hard to find good work as a writer, which is why I ended up a union thug, haha. But you are good at this. If you have the passion and drive, I encourage you to keep writing. You have skill!
Appreciate it man! I don’t run it by an editor, one can just write in the FanPost section and if it’s good the site owner will front page it (some edits might be done at that time); you can also edit after the fact, which I generally have to do; inevitably when you throw thousands of words together, there are bound to be some errors. And when nobody is getting paid for it, somebody still has to do it lol.
Process wise, I try to have a fairly clear outline laid out. Just an ordered list of the general ideas each sentence should encompass (including working out transitions). I’d rather spend time on the front end organizing things than time on the back end digging through everything multiple times to correct simple mistakes (which I have to do anyways, but since I have to do it much less I feel like it gives me more freedom to acknowledge/add points/context).
I took extra time on the Rojas article so that I could use it as a template going forward (to save more time). Adding in analysis for something like power metrics, defense, or baserunning wouldn’t be too difficult to add, because it was structured to not be difficult to add. Like I said, feel free to follow the template or make adjustments as you see fit if you find merit in it.
You caught me on the introduction lol; I kind of suck at those (and since the conclusion is just restating the introduction I struggle with that as well). In most cases I treat it as an area to throw extra context, but I’m trying to be better lol.
I really do appreciate the constructive criticism; telling anyone what they’re doing right doesn’t really help them become better. Or at least that’s the way I see it; glad you enjoyed the philosophy! I had to be straightforward about everything; even though I like to consider myself pretty knowledgeable, I’ve never actually played baseball. Doesn’t mean that I love it any less, I just have a different take than most everyone.
See if the Astros fan site has a FanPost feature; it’s a nice way to exchange thoughts.
Once you have 4-5 of these articles you have written that you really like; like, high quality AND representative of your analytical voice/writing style; put them together into a portfolio. Print physical copies and digital.
You are now an experienced amateur writer.
With that, you WILL find freelance work if you look hard enough. I’m not saying quit your job but there is freelance work out there, I promise you that. Once you put together 4-5 freelance PAID articles;
You are now a PROFESSIONAL writer. Start applying for bigger writing jobs; they want to hire cheap freelance guys and groom them into staff; or in reality just keep you as consistent freelance option, which isn’t so bad either.
I wish I had some connections for you! I never made it very far. I was sports editor/staff writer at my community college for a couple years and essentially fell in and out of love with the process quickly, and especially loathed the lack of money. I was working 35+ hours a week in the news room waiting for content to come in while only getting paid part time. I got in as an intern at my local newspaper for exactly 2 days before that newspaper laid off half its staff and went digital only (lol)! It all kind of soured me on the future prospects of being a professional writer.
We were pretty poor growing up so I kind of moved on knowing that I was more willing to do whatever it took to provide for myself fruitfully in the short term. I just wanted to get out of the house right after school. 16 years later I’m still a teamster hahaha. No complaints man, I have done just fine for myself and am a lucky dude, but I’m just telling you a little bit about myself to maybe inspire to carry the torch. Writing is a lost art. Good journalism is a lost art. When I look around, I sometimes wish I would have stuck with it; so that I could have been one of the “good ones.” We need more good ones! Waaaaay more. Lol
Appreciate it SODOMOJO! Your words are too kind, and I appreciate the background. I’m a tradesman as well (certified in residential/commercial electrical and HVAC; although I mainly just do gigs when friends/family need help and at discounted rates) but my VA disability covers most all of my expenses fortunately. It’s never too late for you to throw together some articles and put them up; I feel you though, trades are much steadier income.
I mainly just work when I want extra things or to do something, so freelance works just fine. I’d mainly want to be a “professional” journalist or analyst so I could write analysis subscriptions off on my taxes lol.
That’s why I couldn’t do straight journalism; I was accepted to the Walter Cronkite School at ASU, but family issues prevented that from happening. I too am sad with the current state of the industry. Instead of digging for truth, it’s about entertainment.
TECHNICALLY I do have 3 other articles already published (one about each of Blaze Alexander, Jose Herrera, and Tristin English), but a couple were lost when the site made changes. I wouldn’t bother hunting for them lol. I am working on another article about Blaze Alexander, though. If I see you in the comments after I have it up I’ll tell you.
But feel free to stop in the Snake Pit during GameDay threads (especially during a series the Astros/DBacks match up). We all (for the most part) like respectable ribbing and analysis; it’s generally a good time.
Where can we find your articles, FanSided?
I just post articles on AZSnakePit in the FanPosts sections.
My only recent ones up are titled “Is Josh Rojas A Good Hitter?”, and the one before that we were talking about being more philosophy oriented was titled “Philosophy of the Philosophy”
Thank you for even asking! I hope you enjoy them if you do read. I’ll warn that they’re kind of long; they’re more conversational in language choice, though (in hopes the it makes it more enjoyable; I can’t be the judge of that, though lol)
*that it makes
The “mistake” some players make is giving too many team options.
Josh Rojas for Tyler o neill
DBacks don’t need more OFs; sure, they could stand for upgrades at some spots (most every team can say the same), but they have a healthy number of options projected to be above average if used correctly.
And more guys right behind them that are already viewed as league average or better.
No point shuffling deck chairs or “robbing Peter to pay Paul” if they don’t lead to clear roster advantages.
Well I’m hoping Marte comes out hot and they trade him to San Diego for tatis and cash to pay for Machado. Lol. Aj s my type of gm though they way he wheels and deals On paper Hazen had a tremendous off season, the Moreno pick up being the most interesting we’ll see.
I’m sure there’s a not small portion of the DBacks franchise that feels that way about Marte being dealt; realistically though, if he’s performing well enough to re-establish value, he’s likely also a bargain for his deal.