Pitchers and catchers report in 10 days, at which point we’ll have more to discuss in virtually every facet of the sport. Until then, let’s review more prospects tangentially connected to the news. Today’s episode coincidentally includes a number of left-handed hitters with holes in their swing.
Five BHPs In The News
Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 626 PA, 19 HR, 18 SB, .278/.406/.469
In a recent radio spot, Orioles general manager Mike Elias indicated a belief Cowser will debut later this season. A recent review of the Baltimore farm system published by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen offers modest cause for concern. There are now questions about Cowser’s ability to perform against low-in-the-zone breaking balls and inside fastballs. Those are two very large holes for a big league hitter, indicating Cowser might require a carefully managed role once he is promoted. The lower-half stiffness noted by Longenhagen is a new issue and might relate to the workload Cowser shouldered last season. In order to improve and adjust, Cowser could require a long stint in Triple-A.
JJ Bleday, 25, OF, MIA (MLB)
(MLB) 238 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .167/.277/.309
The left-handed hitting slugger has two massive issues to overcome – a weakness against up-and-away fastballs and a pulled, fly-ball-oriented approach lacking in high-quality exit velocities. Both issues were on full display in Bleday’s first season, and he has used up his rookie eligibility. Bleday is currently expected to compete with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz for playing time in left field. Unless he improves upon both shortcomings, the former fourth-overall pick will be limited to heavily scripted usage against right-handed sinkerballers. Achieving such an adjustment will likely require a new swing and a return to Triple-A to digest the changes.
Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 411 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511
A burly backstop who frequently draws hitting comps to Salvador Perez, Alvarez will need to play his way onto an Opening Day roster that already includes catchers Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido. While neither player is expected to block Alvarez, he also has a second pathway onto the roster – designated hitter. As we learned yesterday, the Mets are carrying a veteran tandem of Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham in part to leave a door open for Alvarez and Brett Baty (covered last week) to get at-bats as part of the revolving door at DH.
As a hitter, Alvarez appears primed for the Show. There is near-term concern about his rate of contact and occasional lapses into over-selectivity. Even so, these are small issues to polish rather than fatal flaws.
James Outman, 25, OF, LAD (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 559 PA, 31 HR, 13 SB, .294/.393/.586
Although the Dodgers have made peace with crossing the first luxury tax threshold, they’ve done little to fortify their left field mix. Outman will compete with the likes of Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward for a regular role this spring. Outman’s approach could serve as a roadmap for Bleday. The left-handed hitting Outman makes frequently pulled, fly ball contact, but he isn’t nearly as extreme as the similarly built Marlins outfielder. Outman also consistently delivers line drives which allows him to post above-average BABIPs. Toss in above-average plate discipline, and he has a chance to hit for average, OBP, and power despite expectations of a 30 percent strikeout rate.
Spencer Steer, 25, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 427 PA, 23 HR, 4 SB, .274/.364/.515
Acquired as part of the return in the Tyler Mahle trade, Steer looks the part of a future second-division starter or frequently-used utility man. The Reds are in a year of transition with Steer eyeing a role as the regular third baseman. Long-term, he’ll need to contend with the likes of Elly De La Cruz, Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, and Matt McLain – whichever among those doesn’t take over at shortstop. Steer is considered a well-rounded hitter with a feel for contact, above-average plate discipline, and an ability to pop mistakes. The cozy confines of Great American Ballpark should help his power production. One question he’ll need to answer relates to his consistency of contact quality. In a 108-plate appearance trial last season, Steer posted an 84.7-mph average and 104.4-mph max exit velocity, which were well below Major League average.
Three More
George Valera, CLE (22): After managing a league-average batting line at Triple-A last season, Valera is on pace to debut at some point in 2023. He won’t be making the Opening Day roster due to a recent hamate injury. Such injuries are hard to predict, as the recovery is speedy in some cases, but some players are left with lesser bat control for weeks or months after returning. Occasionally, as with Alex Kirilloff, a secondary issue can linger indefinitely.
Kyle Stowers, BAL (25): Currently in the outfield and designated hitter mix for Baltimore, Stowers has a brief window to cement a role as a righty-masher before a flood of high-ceiling prospects joins the roster. Stowers is patient, strikeout-prone, and powerful, rendering him a Three True Outcomes option. Such hitters are volatile as they’re heavily reliant on hitting home runs at just the right time.
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (23): General manager Mike Elias reiterated his belief that Rodriguez will make the Opening Day rotation. There’s still the messy part of actually navigating Spring Training, especially since Rodriguez’s stuff had declined at last look, though he was returning from a lat injury at the time. Even the September version of Rodriguez looked like a future rotation mainstay.
Com’on, Hoof!
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Brewers prospect in one of these
I think I’ve seen Sal Frelick before.
And Churio..Cheerio or whoever’s too.
It’s been a while – looks like the last one was Chourio on Sept. 16 (mlbtraderumors.com/2022/09/big-hype-prospects-quer…). Before that, a pre-trade Esteury Ruiz on Sept. 2, Frelick on Aug. 19.
Cow and Steer in the same post. Mooooooo
With that SO rate, James Outman is going to make a lot of outs, man.
I wonder, why does this article have him down as potentially filling out the LF mix, when to date he’s played that OF position the least?
Seems like he’s at least as much of an option in CF (unless you’re a Trayce Thompson acolyte), particularly given his range and arm. (FWIW, Fangraphs projects him for 259 PA in CF, 112 in LF.)
Right especially since CF is where the Dodgers are thin.
Granted it was a small sample but he either got a hit or whiffed every time up last year with LA. That’s kind of funny.
Sounds like incoming Twin Gallo and outgoing Twin Sano. How is a goal to replace a guy who can rack 180 Ks?
Not quite. He walked twice, but yeah. King of three true outcomes.
Is Stowers really “patient”? He’s had decent BB numbers in the minors, where pitcher control tends to be iffy and walk rates are higher overall, but that dropped to 5 percent in his MLB debut and projection systems have him around an average 8 percent this season. He swung at 55 percent of the pitches he saw in the majors last year (compared to the league average 48) , including a hearty 40 percent chase rate (league average 33).
Patient doesn’t mean he has a good eye. Maybe he stands around until a couple of strikes?
Doesn’t “patient” suggest that you’re not swinging at substantially more pitches than the league average, like Stowers does? (One definition I’m seeing: “A style of hitting that features many walks and pitches but few swings.”) And he has an 18 percent swinging strike rate (league average 11) versus a 12 percent called strike rate (no average available).
BBB – SSS?
@BradJ and BBB; Thanks for the analysis on Stowers. Interesting. All’s I know is when watching him in person he just doesn’t seem to pass the “eye candy” test. Amateur hour on my part, I know, but if there’s a team out there that wants him, move him?
C Yards Jeff;
I saw him play with the O’s last year, and he did appear to be a 3 outcome hitter.
Did not realize until recently that he’s 25 years-old. That’s not good. Then again, Jeff McNeill came up with the Mets at age 26 and in 248 PA’s slashed .329 / .381 / .471 / .852 along with a 138 OPS+. Lots of people here the following offseason said the Mets needed a 2B. I saw him hit and field and didn’t understand why they were saying that (they did it again the following offseason after he’d hit about the same).
In the case of the O’s – that have one of the best coaching staffs in MLB – I’m holding out on all players, Sowers included. As noted in the article, Cowser should be up in 2023. Terrin Vavra (also 25) can play some corner OF, and Kjerstad and Beavers will be following them up.
Frustrating thing with Stowers is that such good things happen when he does hit the ball – in MLB last season, 50 percent hard hit, 11 percent barrel/batted ball, 91 mph average EV/110 max. If he could make more contact he might be a stud, of course you can say that about lots of guys.
Sam & BBB; I wish no ill will on Kyle. And I hope “my gut” is all wrong here. Last time I felt this way about an AAA/MLB level tweener that the Os moved on from was Christian Walker. Oops!
Agreed Sam, O’s have great teaching personnel at all levels. Exciting times in Birdland. And, great comparison/observation on McNeil. Hope abounds! You mentioned Vavra. Big fan. Like McKenna but strikes out way too much. Hoping Os staff “coaches up” Terrin to be able to take on utility outfield duty in Ryan’s place.
“Frustrating”. Exactly, BBB. He’s definitely on my short list of players to follow in ST. Fingers crossed. Cheers!
C Yards Jeff;
Not to beat it onto the ground, but keep this in mind…..
The Orioles are the Astros 2.0. Actually the O’s have been drafting better than the Astros. Sig accompanied Elias to Baltimore. He has ever more sophisticated systems.
If you look at the Astros they’re incredibly patient with their players. They know why some players are getting bad results, and will spend years with them if they believe in the player. Kyle Tucker is a great example – a player with high expectations that underperformed for years, yet the Astros kept working with him and stuck with him.
My suggestion is to ignore the statistics and narratives that are public. The O’s FO knows all that and more. The public skinny regarding a player means nothing to them. They’ll work with guys until the player either totally fails or peaks. Then they’ll move onto others.
The same applies to the pitching staff. They draft very few pitchers. They depend primarily on looking at pitchers that don’t have great track records, knowing what might work with them, brining them onto the roster and developing them (watch the interview with Cole Irvin where he said he spent 45-60 minutes on the phone with the O’s pitching coach and manager, and said he was excited and open to the points they brought up).
The O’s and Astros are very unique organizations – as are the Rays and Guardians. They see things in ways others think is unconventional; that they know are fundamentally sound.
They confuse the experts….when in fact it’s the experts that are confused. If the new ownership continues to back Elias and company this run will go for more than 5 years.
Samuel I agree with your overall analysis here.
But Kyle tucker isn’t a great example of patience. He only sucked when he initially came up. That was less than 100abs. He put it together year 2 and has improved since.
He was also a consensus top 10 prospect so his leash was likely long in almost any Org.
I’m not super high on Stowers. His swing looks like Bellinger’s. He doesn’t have the same raw skill set that Cody did though. That swing has holes in it. He might be a useful bench bat that can pop a few dingers but I don’t see an everyday player there.
Certainly puts a charge into it when the bat hit the ball. MLB pitchers are pretty darn good though.
@ BBB & C Yards & Samuel – This little thread is one of the most enjoyable discussions I’ve read in the comments section here at MLBTR – thanks for the stats and info guys.
The ultimate out nickname is already taken. Omar “the outmaker” Moreno.
For all the consternation made about CIN having too many INF prospects, they’re really set up quite nicely to give them all playing time. Assuming Steer starts with the big club, and Elly, Noelvi, and Arroyo all take a step up (to AAA, AA, and A+ in this case), the the only situation is getting McLain fit in, either at AA or AAA and that should be fine with just one other player of the group needing ABs at whatever level he lands at.
Steer will start with the big club. It is also obvious the writer never saw him play.
Journalism doesn’t seem to be about research anymore, just throw stuff out there based on what they might have seen on Twitter.
What is he missing/getting wrong about Steer?
McLain should be starting CF for AAA louisville. His bats ready and he could push senzel out.
I bet he stays at SS and may beat Barrero out who has shown nothing at the plate. De La Cruz CF, Steer LF, Marte 3B, Strand 1B in 2024. De La Cruz gives me an Eric Davis vibe. Farley and Friedl in the OF mix. Could see Stephenson at 1B too with either Strand or Steer DH after Votto retires. I get the feeling it’s Joey’s last year regardless.
I think Senzel’s ship has sailed and surprised they still think he plays full time after the last few seasons. Poster child for why I say hyped prospects are suspects until they have proved something.
1. Congrats to BAL fans because you have a ton of good upside talent coming through.
2. What a disappointment Bleday is. I thought he’d be able to fast track his way to MIA even without a terribly high ceiling. MIA could’ve chosen anyone of the next 15 picks and been better off. That ’19 first round might be a notable one.
O’s may have slightly too much young talent so now it’s up to Elias to (very) slowly determine which ones stay and which ones are dangled in exchange for pitching.
Bleday is a work in progress. He’s had 238 ML PAs and a half season of AAA.
His minor league #’s aren’t that good either.
Bleday is a bust. Didn’t even hit in the Minors, MIA just forced him up the rungs.
BUST
Miami prospects have a lot hype but end up getting lost between AA and AAA. I’m not in the area so I don’t know the cause but I feel like their farm should produce more. Drafted/Intl talent not the trades they unfortunately lucked out on like Brinson
Anything other than an ace (longer term, not right away) would be a disappointment for Grayson Rodriguez.
Alvarez gonna mash
I really hope you’re right. He was exciting to watch in Syracuse. I was at the game where he hit a walk off homer against Omaha and it was amazing. Can’t wait to see him piece it together in the big leagues.
That’s awesome. I think it’s just a matter of time before he gets the call though. Let him work on his catching and wait until he’s in a groove before calling him up a month or so into the season.
Yeah, he for sure needs work on the catching. Let him catch full time for a month or two in AAA, then call him up and have him learn from Nido, who is a very good defensive catcher.
All hype. Expected for Nu Yawk.
Hes a beefy mfer. Just looks like he’s wrecking the ball. Can’t wait.
Bat speed, baby, bat speed. Attitude guy too. He’s gonna love playing for Buck and Buck’s gonna love having him. Can’t wait!
Sounds like a Mets fanboy.
Tell me, Cletus, what do you think the odds are of a Mets fan posting on a Mets article here on this baseball site?
Now get back down to the basement lest you get some idea that you’re relevant.
As a Yankee fan, really happy BAL is improving. I loved the Davy Johnson and late Showalter battles. Not mention Camden Yards is still a top 5 fav park.
No love for Connor Norby? Guy played at 3 levels last year and better numbers than what you listed. You need to watch closer!
Well, Bleday is nearing the end of his time with the Marlins if he doesn’t do something soon that shows he should be the guy over Bryan de la Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, Jerar Encarnacion and some other OFs that are on the way.