The Orioles took a major step forward last season, and now general manager Mike Elias has declared their rebuild over.
“I believe that our rebuild is behind us. We’ve got an incredible chance now to be a very, very competitive team for years,” Elias told reporters, including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com.
That team will depend on the performance of it’s young core, led by Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and soon to include Grayson Rodriguez. Yet while the team is stocked with exciting young talent Orioles fans may have some reason to feel a little disappointed by the team’s modest acquisitions in the off-season thus far.
They’ve so far brought in starters Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin, added reliever Mychal Givens, infielder Adam Frazier and catcher James McCann. While that group can all help the Orioles it’s not the splashy addition some might have been hoping for as the O’s look to compete in the tough AL East, yet Elias isn’t ruling out further additions by trade or in free agency.
“There are quality free agents remaining. We’re staying in touch in them. We’re still pursuing opportunities. There are some players on the free-agent market that interest us,” Elias said.
Given the dwindling options in free agency, it’s likely any signing would be more of a depth piece rather than an impact player. Baltimore was connected to free agent starter Michael Wacha throughout the off-season, but the addition of Irvin would seemingly make any more rotation additions unlikely. They’ve also been reported to be in the market for a defensive-minded outfielder.
Here’s a couple more notes from the AL East:
- Sticking with the Orioles to begin with, Elias says there are 12 players in the mix for the starting rotation come Opening Day. Gibson and Irvin are locks, while Elias has already said he expects top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez to make the team’s rotation out of camp, so that’d leave nine players competing for the final two spots. One of them will be prospect DL Hall, with Elias saying he’ll have a chance to compete for a rotation spot in the spring. Hall came in at 84th on Keith Law’s recently published top-100 prospect list. He did get a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues last year, but it’s possible the Orioles look to keep him at Triple-A at least to begin the season.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a deeper look at Baltimore’s rotation options recently, but other candidates include Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Austin Voth and Spenser Watkins. - The Red Sox won’t be aggressive in seeking further upgrades to their roster, but they are at least keeping the door open to making a move, particularly in the middle-infield, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said the team likes the group they’ve got, so it seems likely that further moves would be minor league deals or bench pieces. Enrique Hernandez and Adalberto Mondesi are slated to handle the bulk of the middle-infield reps in 2023, with Christian Arroyo the top option off the bench.
He should be called IL Hall instead of DL Hall. It sounds better.
LOL, why IL?
He isn’t hurt that often
His issue is, he can’t hit the plate with a fork
I think dGTR is just playing off how MLB switched Disabled List (DL) to Injured List (IL). C’mon, it’s a Saturday!
Well, it ain’t pitchers, unless
1.) Britton
2.) Trevor Bauer
EIther would be fine, but Elias has me baffled
Also, Mike Moustakas intrigues me, but who knows what Elias is thinking
1. Unless Britton has really bounced back I’m not sure he’s worth a bullpen spot on a team that truly wants to compete. Nice story return to Baltimore aside I don’t think it would be a great baseball move at this stage. Even when you factor the injuries out of the equation he really started to fall off once his velocity started to go. His sinker had too much movement further from the plate which caused him to really struggle to hit the zone and hitters weren’t having trouble laying off whereas earlier in his career it was clearly much harder for hitters to pick up that movement which was likely due to it being harder and later.
2. I highly doubt Trevor Bauer gets another shot in MLB; if he does get another shot it won’t be with a younger roster like the Orioles. I cannot imagine after the lean years that the front office would want to drop the distraction and self-promotion that is Trevor Bauer into a clubhouse that, if all goes to plan, will soon be chock full of early twenty-somethings that the franchise sees as its future.
3. Mike Moustakas is a less versatile version of Rougned Odor without the durability Odor has shown throughout his career. I could see it from the perspective of having a veteran presence but I don’t think there are enough at bats to go around with him on the roster and his presence also puts undue pressure on a young guy like Henderson to perform while looking over his shoulder.
Moose can play third, second, and first
He is a good fielder, but I don’t know how much he has left in the tank
He is a lottery ticket at this point and a ticket I would be willing to gamble on
As for Bauer, his personal life is a mystery to me and if I did something like that, how could I ever look at my parents or her parents in the eye
Still though, he is a good pitcher and for one year, I would gamble on him too
Based on his last few years with the Reds, Moustakas is probably a 1B/DH at this point in his career. He could be an occasional backup at 3B but his range is limited. He was a significant liability at 2B and that would be amplified this season without the shift.
@Lefty I dont know the full story on Bauer. I’m 20 plus years a Dom and have been with women who wanted to be cut and punched (body) but I’ve always drawn certain lines. And made double sure of limits. And offered aftercare. What I can see of Bauer is he played being a Dom and didn’t really understand it. But my info is limited.
Maybe Bauers parents got down like that too. Shouldn’t project your life experiences onto other people.
I don’t know
Well, my info is limited too
Britton was asking for a ridiculous amount when I last checked. He came off as a Danny Duffy type of NRI on a minor league type, given his part few bad years, but I remember the 9 million ask number being thrown out as an annual average.
O’s lack a LH power bat. Whether that is still Moustakas is another issue entirely
That is false. Henderson and Stowers are both lefty power bats. Santander and Rutschman both have the bulk of their power from the left side of the plate as well.
The Orioles will be helped by Boston’s continued slide. However, the Yankees and Jays are too much to overcome. Third place is a best case scenario in the division. Tampa may push them to fourth. Baltimore could have challenged Toronto had they opened the checkbook wider this off season.
Jim – I wouldn’t take for granted the Red Sox will be in last place. While it’s certainly possible, I firmly believe if most or all of the following things happen they could be a playoff contender:
1) Healthy Sale
2) Healthy Paxton
3) Yoshida performs as he did in Japan
4) Healthy Devers
5) Healthy Hernandez
6) Casas lives up to the hype
7) BP performs to their capabilities
8) Cora screws up less often
9) Healthy Houck
10) Healthy Whitlock
11) Healthy Kluber
I think Mondesi is a sneaky good acquisition.
You got a lot of guys named Healthy.
Arnold – You’re right! That’s one of the biggest reasons I never bet on sports, injuries can be a major factor.
Fever, if all those things happen … another Championship. No question. And it won’t even be close.
Hayzee – Would certainly be nice, but I wouldn’t be that confident about a championship. Lots of tough competition and there’s not many players on the Sox that have a track record in the postseason. That’s always a big factor to me, history of postseason success. With Sale and Paxton missing so much time in recent years, their stamina after August might become an issue.
I just hope Cora puts more of a priority on winning in the first half of the season, time will tell.
Don’t be greedy Fever. A full season out of Sale and Paxton combined is all I’m asking for. Add in solid seasons from most and a ROTY from Casas and I’ll let everything else play out.
dewey – Based on the three you chose, they would need to be 2018 Sale and 2017 Paxton and Casas putting up Alonso ROY numbers.
I’m optimistic, but I’m not crazy (my mother had me tested).
Fever, ask your mom if she sued your doc as that list is not realistic. It’s a long season and if they get “one” healthy pitcher between Sale and Paxton AND great production at first, that will keep the team competitive. Then depending on who is injured or not performing, Bloom can make other moves. You never know. For the team to surprise, others in the division have to do their part by not performing to expectations. The Sox aren’t getting 100 wins in 23.
dewey – I really think you underestimate the losses of Xander, JD and Nate (in relation to the 2021 ALCS team, not the abysmal 2022 team).
This is baseball we are talking about, not football or basketball. It takes a group of players to have team success, no team can be carried by one or two players. We’ve seen plenty of evidence of that with the Angels and other teams, haven’t we?
If nearly a dozen things have to right to be a contender, you really shouldn’t hold your breath.
mlb – I tend to be an optimist this time of year ;O)
Right with that logic the cubs are a contender to if 10 things go right.
Fair enough, I’m an optimist too, though I’d still be concerned if like 11 things have to go right if you need to be a contender.
We don’t need all 12. If Sale & Paxton make 50 starts, we’re probably looking at 90 wins.
Sale and Paxton are NEVER going to make 50 starts between them…..Sale coming off major surgery and Paxton gets hurt putting on. his shower shoes…LOLOLOLOLOOL
Never say never. It may not be probable but there’s maybe a 20-25% chance they get 50 starts between Sale and Paxton. Add in Kluber, and if they get 60 starts out of those three I think they’ll be in the playoff hunt. Because I also think Bello is going to be really good, and their other SP options and bullpen are a lot better than last year. The Bosox probably have more variability in their possible outcomes than any team in the majors. Could finish last, or could win 90.
If Sale and Paxton make 50 starts, the Red Sox will definitely go 162-0.
As I wrote above, I just want the equivalent of a full season from Sale and Paxton along with a rookie of the year type season from Casas. Then let everything else happen and adjust as needed
rocky – Even if they did make 50 starts between them, Joe seems to think they will replicate Verlander’s 2022 comeback season.
What he fails to realize is:
1) Verlander essentially missed two seasons, while Sale essentially missed three
2) Even when healthy Paxton was nowhere near as good as Verlander
It will take a lot more than a healthy Sale & Paxton to carry the Sox into the postseason.
Rocky I bet you said Wacha & Martin Perez would never combine for 55 starts before 2022; but they did.
rocky71 day ago
Sale and Paxton are NEVER going to make 50 starts between them…
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You’re a Yankee fan, so I will disregard your reading comprehension skills.
The comment was based on Fever’s post of:
1) Healthy Sale
2) Healthy Paxton
So I am not saying that they will make 50 starts, but IF they do….
Fever Pitch Guy21 hours ago
Joe seems to think they will replicate Verlander’s 2022 comeback season.
====================
Care to show me where I said that?
Joe – You clearly said all that’s needed to win 90 games is for Sale & Paxton to make 50 starts.
Which means if they make 50 starts and nothing else on my list happens, you’re saying those 50 starts will be so spectacular that they will carry the Sox to 90 wins. So in other words, if they are both healthy you expect them to pitch as great as Verlander did in his comeback season.
Not familiar with IF/AND logic, eh?
=IF(AND(Something is True, Something else is True), Value if True, Value if False) OR – =IF(OR(Something is True, Something else is True), Value if True, Value if False)
More nonsense. The 90 wins is predicated on 50 starts. On everything else, guys can under-perform or over-perform.
FWTW, don’t say stupid schitt like Paxton performing like Verlander. IMO. it sounds crazy.
#8 is just unrealistic
As for the rest, having so many players that need to go just right in order to be successful is not the place a big market team should be in.
grnmtn – Managers, especially young ones, can and sometimes do improve over time. Francona and Torre did not start off as good managers, but they learned and improved. As much as Cora’s prior managing has frustrated the heck out of me, I do hold out hope that he’s learned from his past mistakes.
And yes I totally agree with your last sentence. But as a Red Sox fan I have one of two choices: Either accept the hand that has been dealt and hope for the best, or skip the season. The only season I’ve skipped was 2020, I enjoy the game too much to not follow and support the team.
1) Healthy Sale
Even if he’s healthy, what are you getting at this point? How much confidence do you have in him?
2) Healthy Paxton
Ditto on Paxton: what are you getting and what’s your confidence level?
3) Yoshida performs as he did in Japan
Aside from the otherworldly, once in a generation speed/contact combination of Ichiro, when has this statement ever held true for a position player coming to MLB from Japan?
4) Healthy Devers
Sure.
5) Healthy Hernandez
Feeling you need health from a player who is solid but ultimately is a career super utility role player with a .239/.314/.418 is concerning, no? We aren’t talking a middle of the order bat like Devers. The season hinges partially on a slightly above average player?
6) Casas lives up to the hype
Huge question mark for a young guy playing in a large media market in a tough division that was more good than great at AAA. I’ll put your point more bluntly: Casas needs to put up numbers akin to Rafael Devers did his first couple of years. I’ll take the under on those stats.
7) BP performs to their capabilities
Simply swapping new blood in is not going to make that big of a difference for this team. Kenley Jansen has been declining for 5 years. There are a lot of journeymen in that group. I’m not bullish on their “capabilities.”
8) Cora screws up less often
Wait…didn’t Cora single-handedly win these guys 108 games and the World Series in 2018???
9) Healthy Houck
The guy oscillates between seeming all-world starter to guy with great stuff who can’t keep it together. Health is only part of the equation.
10) Healthy Whitlock
Let’s see how his insistence to start pans out. Unfortunate too since that means Cora can’t pettily run him out against the Yankees.
11) Healthy Kluber
I’ll go and light a prayer candle at my local church across from the Dunkin in Southie for you and Corey now, kid.
You basically could have just commented “no” instead of going through each bulletpoint and your argument would’ve been just as weak
1-Tough call on the rust, but this guy was the best in BB before the TJS
4-Kiki is #101 in PAs in the 5 years prior to 2022. That’s a good bit more than a super utility.
9-11-We only need these guys to be as healthy as they were last season. 60 IPs, 78 (depending on use), and 164 is all we need from Houck, Whitlock & Kluber.
1. Sales dominance ended in 2018 which is a lifetime considering its going to be the 2023 season…..and he hasn’t eclipsed 200 innings in forever…..come on man, be objective….
4. Kiki is a very average ballplayer at best…..while he has had some good results during the live ball era, do you really think he’s the “super sub+” that you characterize him as?
9-11…..Only time and usage will tell…..
Good input from an Angels fan, a franchise whose aspirations to win are as fake as the tans on their Orange County fans. Throw your list up regarding what it will take for the Angels to compete and I’ll respond similarly. Let me help: it should include Pujols, Hamilton, Wilson, Upton, Rendon, and a laundry list of others returning to form. BUT WE HAVE TROUT AND OHTANI!
As far as the response regarding Kike’s plate appearances…really? Plate appearances are an indicator of a super utility guy? Ben Zobrist had a lot of plate appearances too. He too was a super utility player. My point was that the guy is solid but not a solid regular at any given spot and he brings average value and output yet he’s being pointed to as a key to success for a pretty cobbled together roster. I don’t like my chances if my season partially hinges on the performance of a player who would be at best the fifth or sixth best regular on a lot of other playoff teams.
Crab – Appropriate handle you have there! LOL!
I think the Sox could get 2015 Sale, mid-3’s ERA but with fewer strikeouts and 150 IP.
They could get 2019 Paxton with upper-3’s ERA and 150 IP.
Knowing Cora, both guys will be pulled after 5-6 innings no matter how well they are performing and how low the pitch count. And they will probably have several starts on extra rest.
They will NOT be two workhorses that singlehandedly carry the Sox into the postseason.
Fletch – I support my opinions, if I just said “No” there wouldn’t have been an argument now would there? ;O)
Joe – Houck missed about 35% of the season and Whitlock missed 25% of the season. This year’s team can’t sustain similar absences this season and still contend, unless there’s a bunch of very good surprises throughout the rest of the roster.
Hernandez’s value can’t be measured in just PA’s or BA. He is an above average replacement at multiple positions, unlike last year’s parade of players taking the field in positions they had no business taking.
Houck missed about 35% of the season and Whitlock missed 25% of the season.
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But my point remains. 60 IPs, 78 (depending on use), and 164 is all we need from Houck, Whitlock & Kluber.
60 innings is what you should expect from an RP. 164 IPs ranked #45 last year. It doesn’t have to be special.
Never Pitch guy-Hernandez is a decent player but he is no Bogaerts. Career .240 hitter and really not much time at SS in his career.
PS- can everyone please address to who they are replying to.
Joe – You have no clue how Whitlock and Houck will be used throughout the season.
Neither do I and neither does Cora.
Let the season play out before you try to imitate Nostradamus (he was a French astrologer, apothecary, physician, and reputed seer, who is best known for his book Les Prophéties (published in 1555), a collection of 942 poetic quatrains allegedly predicting future events.)
Fever Pitch Guy1 hour ago
Joe – You have no clue how Whitlock and Houck will be used throughout the season.
==========================
That’s why I said “(depending on use)”. You know I type these things for a reason.
You gotta better chance licking a spoon and putting it under your pillow for “Goodluck” than this pathetic excuse for a independent league roster has at competing for anything less than last place.
Fever: that’s far too many “ifs”
Pedro – I agree, but sometimes in sports everything aligns just right for a special season.
We saw that in 2021 with SFG and ATL.
We saw that in 2021 with SFG and ATL and the Red Sox.
There, I corrected it for you.
Fever: we had our “everything aligns just perfectly” season 10 years ago. That doesn’t happen often
I agree with all but #8. I know you don’t like Cora but he got us 2018.
pedey – It’s not that I don’t like Cora, I just don’t like his managing.
Sounds like you’re cleverly giving him credit for bringing the cheating to Boston in 2018?
Still, even Bobby Valentine could have managed that 2018 team to a WS championship. Look at the roster of All-Star players, it’s not like players had a career year because of him.
Bogaerts, Devers, JD Martinez, Mookie, Price, Sale, Kimbrel … that’s some serious star power right there.
When you have the highest payroll in MLB it definitely helps.
Along with likely great pitch stealing. No one talks about but that team had so many key ABs that in hindsight you have to wonder if Cora brought more than magic from Houston. I keep thinking of the Moreland pinch hit HR in the WS. It reminded me of Gibson they MM was hurt. Could it also have been he knew what pitch was coming?
Along with likely great pitch stealing. No one talks about but that team had so many key ABs that in hindsight you have to wonder if Cora brought more than magic from Houston. I keep thinking of the Moreland pinch hit HR in the WS. It reminded me of Gibson the way MM was hurt. Could it also have been he knew what pitch was coming?
dewey – I agree on the sign stealing.
JT Watkins took the fall for Cora, there’s no chance Watkins acted on his own.
It’s just funny how not many talk about it. On a different point, I was watching MLB and they were talking how the Sox and Yankees saw each other 55 times between 03 and 04. The point was how often Boston saw Mariano then. Bill Mueller certainly enjoyed hitting against Mo but I don’t recall others consistently doing well against the great MR. I often mention how the closer role changed and how Mo had so many saves, lost in the translation were the two and even three inning saves of Fingers, Sutter and Gossage. With years removed, I’m starting to appreciate Riveria like what happened (to me) with Munson (who DEFINITELY belongs in the HOF).
I don’t know why you guys would believe something about your team that no one provided any evidence to support. MLB’s investigation of the 2018 Red Sox went on for months and uncovered no evidence of cheating. They admitted this in their report when they said they have a “factual dispute”, “largely have no direct evidence” and “no written record, recording or other contemporaneous evidence of the underlying events”. If there was any evidence, the facts would not be in dispute. The conclusion of cheating “on at least some occasions” was clearly based on speculation as MLB’s investigation failed to document a single occasion of cheating by admission, eye witness or any other means. This was very unfair to the Red Sox and Red Sox fans and why I keep pointing it out.
dewey – The number of games they said is incorrect, it was 52 games (19 regular season and 7 postseason each year). Unless they are counting ST which would be stupid IMO.
I have often said, of the “Core Four” Mariano was the most valuable during their run. And BTW he DID pitch multiple innings quite often. In the 2003 ALCS Game 7 he pitched 3 innings, allowing 0 walks and 0 runs on just 2 hits.
As for Munson, I agree …. 10 year career is long enough, especially considering the reason why it ended.
Fever- I’m not saying he cheated. Maybe he did, but whether he did or not, it’s not the reason we won in 2018.
Cora made some terrible bullpen decisions last year, I’m with you on that, but in the 18 and 21 postseason, he put everything on the table to win. Even when he managed Puerto Rico in the WBC, he got them to the Finals.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, he’s gutsy. It doesn’t always pay off but he won big games for us and he’s got a superb feel for the game in a playoff atmosphere. Of course, we have to get to the playoffs first.
As I said, I’m on board with your other calls on that list and agree that we could potentially make the postseason.
His body of work was sufficient. Compare careers with Puckett. Diana Munson didn’t believe Thurman would want the rules changed. He would have been elected on emotions back then.
suit – MLB would not have taken their second round draft pick and banned Watkins for a year if there wasn’t enough evidence.
This whole angle of yours that MLB’s investigation determined there was cheating but “didn’t have any evidence to prove it” is bizarre to say the least. If there was no evidence, they wouldn’t have determined there was cheating.
Believe me, the last thing MLB wanted was two consecutive WS championships tainted by cheating. They absolutely would not have framed the Red Sox for some unknown reason as you claim.
cnbc.com/2020/04/22/red-sox-mlb-investigation-find…
“The MLB investigation found that Red Sox video replay system operator J.T. Watkins used live game feeds in the replay room to communicate sign sequences to players on “some occasions.”
Fever: It is very easy to see that MLB had no basis to conclude Red Sox video replay system operator J.T. Watkins used live game feeds in the replay room to communicate sign sequences to players on “some occasions” because they were unable to document a single occasion of cheating by any means. That is what MLB’s report tells us. I posted quotes of their admission of no evidence above. It really doesn’t matter what MLB’s motivation was. They clearly reached an unsupported conclusion. Unfortunately, the commissioner can “find” anything to be true with or without evidence. Reporters have unfortunately focused on the conclusion and not the evidence and people read the articles and think they have the whole story. MLB’s report on the 2018 Red Sox is still available on mlb.com for all to read.
It really doesn’t matter what MLB’s motivation was.
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The motivation was easy. They wanted to punish someone to ensure no one else would do so. It sucks that it had to be us, but I don’t disagree that the MLB needed to bring the hammer down.
FWIW, they do this in every sport, and in real life as well.
Joe: Agreed. I was trying to say that MLB’s motivations do not play into answering the question: Did MLB uncover any evidence to support their conclusion?
I assume that the RS did at least enough to warrant some punishment. As I assume that everyone is doing something.
Joe: The way I look at it is, if they are going to label someone a cheater, they need to document at least one incident of cheating. MLB failed to do that as I outlined above with quotes from MLB’s report. If I said Joe Brady has lied on “some occasions”, I’m sure you would expect me to show some evidence of an actual lie to back up my claim. If there is no evidence, the conclusion is baseless. MLB uncovered no evidence of cheating by the 2018 Red Sox and their conclusion is unsupported. Some players suspected the replay guy Watkins occasionally cheated by decoding signs in the replay room during games and immediately providing the info to players, but none of the players actually witnessed him doing this and he did not admit to doing this. When players decoded signs while on base and they differed from Watkins pre-game sign info, the new info would be immediately circulated. Watkins is allowed to circulate new sign info just obtained from players on base because it is legally obtained. So, players may have mistakenly thought Watkins was obtaining new sign info in the replay room when he actually obtained it when sign info from players on base was being circulated. This is all in the report, but MLB still concluded that Watkins cheated on at least some occasions even though there was no certainty that he ever cheated in 2018.
You may get numbers 4, 7 and 9. Doubt the others will happen.
That’s a lot of ifs and more likely a lot of not happenings.
The odds of all those things happening are slim and none.. I can see #’s 4.6.7 {possibly} 9,10 happening. In ny event the Sox will be lucky to reach .500 and then Bloom will overpay for a bunch more veterans on 1 yr deals next offseason waiting for his great arm system to arrive..
Fever – Here is why this list is misleading.
#1 – Sale still has Cora as manager and that’s never worked out even when healthy because Cora thinks he’s a pitching coach
#2 – A healthy Paxton is no guarantee of success.
#3 – Yoshida puts up offensive numbers comparable to Japan. That’s a huge stretch considering how much better the pitching is here.
#4 = Dever’s health is critical since he’s the only potential offensive all-star
#5 – Kiki sucks. Bad health would move Mondesi to SS and make them stronger.
#6 – Casas, since his hype is far greater than his skill this one is a huge stretch
#7 – BP contingent entirely on whether the team can get the lead in games.
#8 – NOT GOING TO HAPPEN (Read his new book!!! He’s a self confessed cheater)
#9 – Houck’s issue is Cora not health. If Houck starts big impact!! If Cora puts him in the BP his health doesn’t matter because his role will be insignificant and his talent completely wasted by a bad manager.
#10 – Whitlock’s health is key. I agree.
#11 – Kluber is Kluber. He’s one small step up from Hill when it comes to injury. He needs to be this year’s Wacha but without any time off for Boston to gain some wins.
Just remember the core team in 2022 won 78 games.
They lost BOGEY, JD, Vazquez, Eovaldi, Story (1/2 season), Wacha, Hosmer
They added Yoshima (unknown), Duvall (league average), Kluber (to replace Wacha), Turner (to replace JD), Mondesi (often hurt) and a couple of above average late relief.
Nobody on the list replaces Bogey. JD/JT is a wash, nobody replaces Eovaldi, Duvall allows a bad Hernandez to play SS when Mondesi should, and Yoshima hurts the defense but potentially could be a good on base guy with no power or speed and no glove.
You think this group of misfits are better than last years team that still had many components of the championship team of 2018? NO WAY.
Playoff contender? hahahahahaha absolutely no way. There isn’t that much luck in the world.
That’s a hell of list of “if”
Agree – followed the White Sox rebuild. So much can happened so quickly.
Injuries/regressions from prior year’s performance.
4th place at best.
keysox;
The White Sox rebuild failed partially because they did what people here want the O’s to do….
Just as the youngsters are hitting the majors go out and sign FA’s and trade youngsters for name veterans with large contracts (and if a youngster has a good year immediately give him a large long-term contract).
Some of the veterans get injured and go downhill a bit. A few of the youngsters wash out (in fact the White Sox never had anywhere near the number of quality young players the O’s do). The farm system was literally bare, and the payroll almost maxed out. So the FO and owner decided to “go for it” and trade a terrific young 2B for an up-and-down relief pitcher having a career season – taking on even more salary – when they already had the best closer in the AL.
Add in that their defense was an afterthought and cost them games……the O’s defense might be the best overall in MLB – not one clunker on their roster. They also run the bases well and do situational hitting, which the Sox never did and don’t do. The Sox were/are the ultimate 3 outcomes team with low baseball IQ’s – the O’s players will do anything that day to help the team win, they’ve been well trained and exhibit high baseball IQ’s.
Apples and Oranges.
The Orioles have the most impactful young player in baseball. Baseball is a team game but their young catcher Adley Rutschman impacted the team more then any other rookie in baseball. I’m saying this in all due respect to Julio, Michael Harris, Strider and some of the other top notch rookies. It’s no coincidence this team took off when he was called up he did all that in 113 games. They are going to have him for the entire season this year as well as adding arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball Rodriguez. This year they add Henderson and a probably another couple of high quality prospects. The future is very bright for Baltimore.
Adley is the difference maker though he just makes his pitchers better kind of like Buster Posey. It’s also no coincidence the Giants won World Series in 2010,12, and 14. Posey made that a big a difference for that team not just offensively but defensively a true difference maker. Adley is similar as a difference maker imo.
The rest of the AL East better watch out for Baltimore….maybe not this year, or even next but they have a ton of young, hungry, well thought of ballplayers coming up….
Bruin1012 – Excellent commentary on Rutschman. He is the impact player that Devers could have been if he had ever learned how to field. His Red Sox comp would be Betts from an impact viewpoint and possibly Papi if he’s as good as he looks right now..
They also have a kid named Kyle Manzardo (1B) who looks to be another impact player to go with Rutschman, Mullins and Means when he returns. If Santander and Hays step up in 2023 and Frazier gives them some leadership and solid play this team should stay far ahead of Boston for the foreseeable future. They have a deep farm system based on real numbers produced versus rankings on some silly list. The future in Baltimore looks like it did in Toronto a few years ago. It’s just the opposite of what Bloom has done unfortunately!
Pulled I talked about Manzardo I am familiar with him and yes the boy can hit but he might be a DH may not even stick defensively at first. I like him the boy can hit but he won’t have the same impact as Rutschman. I truly believe Rutschman. Is going to be the most important difference maker in baseball due to his position, his superior defense, his ability to make the pitchers who throw to him better and his top notch offense.
I do like Manzardo though that boy has done nothing but hit.
Bruin1012 – Not suggesting Manzardo will impact as big as Rutchman. Nobody will. He is a generational player.
Manzardo as DH or 1B or both is a huge step up now that Mancini is gone. This guy is like Devers, he can only do one thing really well and that’s hit.
When you consider the Orioles have Mullin a great upside CF already in their line-up. Hays and Santander who still have upside as well. They have a far superior OF to Boston. Frazier is better than any 2B on Boston that is healthy. Mateo is better than any SS Cora will play unless he wakes up and plays Mondesi at shortstop. If Gunner is for real and Manzardo makes it to the majors successfully that team can really hit!! They can field as well so it all comes down to the pitching. They need Means, Gibson, Voth,and their youngsters to have big pitching years. Their pen is just fine.and you have to love the fact that Bautista is their closer and a Pre-Arb 3!!
I think we finally found something we can agree on!!!
Honestly Pulled if we couldn’t agree on Rutschman then we were es never going to agree. He’s truly special and I’m jealous he’s a Oriole and not a Red Sox.
Bruin1012 – Agree. Had a senior moment with Manzardo. He’s a TB not BAL proepect. Got so wrapped up in Adley i transposed Manzardo from TB to BAL while thinking of G Henderson.
Several years back I was drafting in my keeper league and chose Adley and Bart. I was curious to see who would make it to the bigs first and be a long term keeper. Since I have Realmuto and you play 2 catchers each week I am excited to have Adley and Bart to go with Realmuto for the 2023 season. No need to draft a catcher this year. After dropping Perez a couple of years ago because I didn’t want 2 catcher keepers in an 18 player keeper league I may have to rethink the whole 2 keepers at catcher idea as I go into 2024.
Just curious… do you have any thoughts on Jordan Walker, Jackson Chourio or Gunnar Henderson? They are all ranked high by all three services but only Jordan Walker caught my eye early enough to beat out my competition for them for my minors fantasy roster. I still don’t see why Chourio is as high as the other two. For me, Henderson and Walker are the best two prospects in baseball right now.
I had hoped Bloom would deal Devers to STL for Walker and two top ranked pitching prospects. It would have saved over $30MM a year and in two years I think the offense would have been equal and the defense would have been better plus the two pitchers might have made the MLB team too all for $30MM a year less.
Now, Devers is pretty much untradeable. His cost is so much greater than his value he will be an albatross to a future GM for sure.
Honestly Pulled I haven’t seen Chourio play so I would just be regurgitating what I have read. The one thing about this kid he blazed up to AA as an 18 year old that is very impressive. He ran into some issues in AA but again very rare for a player that young to get AA.
I have watched Henderson and he was impressive but I didn’t get the wow factor like I did with Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez who I saw live several times and not just on Milb tv. I like him he held his own in his cup of coffee last year I don’t know why I’m just not as sold on him. I think the best rookie this year if you discount the guys from Japan is hands down Corbin Carroll.
As you know I mostly watch Red Sox minors games and if you have a keeper league I would look at Roman Anthony before he breaks out. Everyone knows about Miguel Bleis well Roman Anthony is similarly tooled. He made it to to Salem last year and I watched all those games really impressed by his approach he is going to hit for big time power maintained a low k rate despite the upgrade he is a guy I would watch closely you might be able to nab him early. If Miguel Bleis is still available I would nab him to. My buddy down in Florida who turned me on to Mookie when he was in low a is really excited about this guy. He watched him a bunch and said his hands are so explosive you can’t get even a 100 mph fastball by this guy. Let’s see how he adjusts to better breaking balls and off speed stuff. Oh and by the way I brought up his defense to my buddy he said he’s easily plus defender in center you effortlessly runs down fly balls. I know you brought up his fielding percentage before but in the complex league he didn’t make an error on the season. He has true five tool potential wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks out big time this year can’t wait to watch this guy in Salem.
Bruin1012 – Thanks for your thoughts on these guys. I didn’t know much about Anthony. Bleis jumped so far up the rankings that I am leary of him. Downs did the same. It usually means someone is trying to hype him within the Red Sox organization. Neither player has played enough games for me to be comfortable taking them for my minors. When I get one I must drop one and I’m not sure they are better than my 20th best minor league player. After our draft this season I have to promote Adley, Bart, Witt, Bubba Thompson and Hunter Greene to my MLB roster so I have 5 spots for new prospects during the draft.
Here are the guys that Bleis and Anthony would have to beat out for me to take them:
Ricky Tiedemann SP TOR
Gavin Williams SP CLE
Sal Frelick OF MIL
Pete Crow-Armstrong OF CHC
Connor Norby 2B BAL OR Jackson Merrill SS SD
The first four seem like rock solid prospects with high upsides. The last two could be replaced by one of the two Red Sox players or if someone takes one of my top four I could grab both of them although both are combine type choices not performance choices. I prefer choosing guys from their numbers not how good they look.
Again, thanks for your feedback. It’s much appreciated.
Pulled I would just keep who have those are solid prospects. I wouldn’t replace any of those guys with Anthony they are easily more advanced prospects. Bleis has tremendous upside but he has only played in the complex so huge downside. Jackson Merrill is your least advanced prospect but he is more advanced then Bleis. As much as I like Bleis we just don’t know if he can hit spin yet. I would watch him very closely if he hits spin he’s going to be a huge mover if he struggles with spin next year he will fall out of the top 100. Your prospects look solid to me.
Jim Carter — The discussion about how teams finish in their divisions is going to be harder than most years to predict, I think, because of the Balanced Schedule.
The history of the game is changing in a big way w/ a Balanced Schedule, and I’m uncertain how that will affect W/L records. Previously, a strong team(s) in a weak division could run up the W/L record. And weaker/competitive divisions meant they diluted each other’s W/L record a bit.
It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out, but the preseason ranking predictions probably deserve more grains-of-salt than years previous.
(How teams do advanced scouting is going to change, and the death of knowledge about Divisional opponents which teams had, will be less useful. Not to mention things like learning new city’s/parks/hotels/airports for players/staff. A lot of newness to the business/playing of baseball this year.)
*depth of knowledge…
O’sSayCanYouSee – I believe you are over-estimating the change based on the new schedule. If you rank teams as elite, above average, average and below average you will find that only specific teams will be impacted greatly and everyone else will face roughly the same competition. Also, data flows freely among teams so playing a NL team when you are an AL team isn’t as daunting as you suggest. The scouting will be sent to new facilities as always to review the future opponents and provide current data on them.
Here is my take on the teams in both leagues
ELITE AL – HOU, NYY, TOR
ELITE NL – LAD, PHI, NYM, ATL SD
Above average AL – BAL, TB, CLE, CWS, SEA, TEX
Above average NL – STL, MIL, SF
Average teams AL – MIN, DET, LAA
Average teams NL – CHC, ARI,MIA
Bad teams AL – BOS, KC and OAK
Bad teams NL – COL, CIN, PIT, WAS
Summarized
AL – 3 ELITE 6 above average 3 average 3 bad
NL – 5 ELITE 3 above average 3 average 4 bad
So when an AL team thinks it’s getting a break playing the weaker NL that’s not true. The NL is more top heavy and bottom heavy but overall the two leagues are fairly comparable.
Take it down a notch to Divisional impact and the NL East is the toughest division much like the AL East is for the AL. If you have to trade off playing NYY, TOR, TB and BAL for NYM, PHI, ATL, MIA and WAS are you better off? Yes slightly better off playing the NL teams. What if you are not the Red Sox so you play TB, TOR, BAL, BOS versus NYM, PHI, ATL, MIA and WAS. You swing from being better off playing the NL teams to better off playing the AL teams. That’s why the schedule change mostly impacts the last place teams in the best divisions. The good teams see very little impact because the AL and NL are fairly balanced overall as leagues. The NL is top heavy and bottom heavy whereas the AL has a far bigger middle of the road set of teams.
The schedule change does help Boston but they are the exception based on the logic presented above.
Even with a balanced schedule and not facing divisional opponents for half the schedule?
stwawk – As I mentioned, Boston does have an advantage where as most teams don’t. They have four of the top 9 teams in their division so they benefit. The Yankees, Toronto, Baltimore and TB only have 3 of the top 9 teams in the AL that they have to play because Boston is a bottom feeder right now.
Also, as we saw last year, Boston thrives when their opponents are week and fails when they are good. April was disaster due to the schedule as was July. June was a godsend thanks to the bad teams lined up to play them in June. Whether Boston plays early or late they still have comparable teams like HOU, CLE, CWS, TEX filling in where the AL East teams might have been historically. The timing doesn’t really matter because the same teams beat up on Boston whether it’s April June or September.
No team benefits from the new schedule more than Boston and yet it doesn’t really change the projected order of finish because the talent has fallen so drastically this off season. 5th by a game or 5th by a dozen games doesn’t really matter to me. I will continue to be upset at the total dismantling of a championship team.
I lived through the Bears dismantling after 1985, the Bulls dismantling after 99, the Patriots dismantling and the Red Sox dismantling of recent years. Only the Patriots limited the dismantling compared to the others. The Bears are still waiting for another ring. Likewise the Bulls. The Pats don’t have one in the near future and as of now the Red Sox are half a decade away at the earliest if Bloom is fired today.
Everyone has a different opinion on who is good and not good in baseball so to determine if you think a specific team you are following is better off or worse off with the new schedule just go in and swap out the games played by opponents from 2022 to 2023.
The in division games go down by 5 per team.(19 to 14)
The in conference other games go from either 7 to 6 or up from 3 to 6 so if you have good teams going from 3 to 6 expect worse results in 2023 and vica versas if the good teams are going from 7 to 6..
The Intraleague games are a bit harder to map since last year teams played 3 games against a specific division in the other league (BOS drew the Central) but to keep the totals an even number one team was selected to be played four times (CIN). That accounted for 16 games plus 4 games against ATL who is considered BOS rival team in the NL so 20 total interconference games.
In 2023, Boston plays 42 games not 20 against NL teams and they play ATL the same four games because they are their RIVAL NL team. That means Boston plays teams like the Mets, Phillie, the Dodgers and Padres more than last year by 3 games each. 15 NL teams with one team being considered their Rival (they play them 4 games) means the other 14 teams are played 3 times for a total of 42 non rival inter-conference games plus 4 rival games totally 46 interleague games. That’s 22 more than last year.
More travel, more variety but not necessarily easier or harder except those 5th place teams in difficult divisions like the AL EAST, AL WEST, NL EAST and NL WEST. Yep, four teams get a decided advantage and all others are iffy.
You wonder how the Angelos sale/no sale situation is impacting this. Does value come from having the roster they have right now, fairly cheap and newly competitive, but maybe not playoff-likely, or do they make more by adding talent through spending (or trading for players who cost)? If the family is going to sell, then price is the metric, so what moves the meter more?
Mikenmn — Orioles aren’t for sale. I think the earliest is 2 years away; which meshes well w/ competitive window (Orioles could be deep playoff team by then) and that would push the organizations value higher. (It’s the Angels and Nationals that have both were for sale, then stopped the sales (I think Nats are now looking for a minority-share invester, not controlling shares anymore))
Unfortunately, Angelos didn’t want to let Elias spend some of daddy’s money, we’re still waiting for you to show us the books.John, next week was 2 weeks ago.
Dread Pirate Roberts;
1. The payroll budget has been increased.
2. Show us where “John” said that.
3. The O’s are the best baseball organization in the AL East along with the Rays, and in time that will show in the standings. Some in 2023; a lot more in 2024. Their objective in 2023 is to make the playoffs. MLB is a playoff league – doesn’t matter where you finish in your division. What matters is how you play and finish in August, September, and October.
John did say he’d open the books to the media, when trying to rebuke Connolly on MLK day.
But I think DPR is wrong, this offseason had nothing to do with how much money was available and everything to do with not wanting to overpay for guys or give out long contracts when a/ the rookies are coming in spades and b/ Davis’ salary is JUST coming off the books. No need to jump into another overpriced veteran so soon.
He’s not wrong. Underestimate the Orioles. I think they may be the best offensive team in the East. They hit for power, steal bases, give any pitching staff a headache. We haven’t seen the full Adley yet either. The only thing they may need to work on is pitching but their offense is up there with everyone else.
The Orioles are the trendy “it” team, but I’m picking them for last in the division.
Idiot.
I know Os fans were disappointed with the off-season but if we look at the astros rebuild with Elias, there was a competitive year then a down year before the dynasty matured so I won’t hold my breath this year. But Let’s go Os.
Here’s hoping DL Hall can take that next prospect step. Of all the Orioles prospects that would change the outlook of the Orioles, it’s DL Hall figuring out how to be a MLB starter. The Orioles lack top of the rotation options, and he’s one of the few in the Org that has that ceiling.
I know, I know…”if”…
While the rebuild is over, I wouldn’t yet expect playoffs. Toronto, NY, and TB are still very good. Teams like the Mariners and Rangers are going for it. Astros and Cleveland remain strong. Twins and White Sox cannot be discarded. The Os look like a fun team but overachieved last season. The hope is they build off last season and then in years to come they are competing for division crowns, not just to make the playoffs
No they didn’t. Twins suck, Rangers will suck again, life will go on.
Wells should be guranteed a rotation spot.
I would agree. Maybe not guaranteed, but I think he gets one of them. Unless they say, hey you’ve had bullpen experience in the past, so go back to the pen. But I think he’s a tad better than the others
I’m sure he’d be good in the bullpen again, it would just feel like a waste of his talents. Kinda like BOS having both Houck and Whitlock relieve. Yes both are great at it but how many quality innings are you losing that they could be covering as starters?
Why? He was great during the summer but had a rocky start and… two injuries? Kremer and Bradish should be locks. Gibson, Irving, GRod. There ya go. Wells and Voth as swing men, or Wells as a late inning guy and Voth a piggybacker to keep GRod’s innings down. Watkins as depth in AAA, and Hall back in the ‘pen with Givens, Baker, Bautista, Perez, and the aforementioned Voth & Wells. Krehbiel and Akin both collapsed so completely last year I’d prefer they work in AAA some more. And Baumann, I think he’s just a depth piece like Watkins at this point, his window to emerge was 2020 and he missed it.
For the little bit I’ve watched DL Hall, he strikes me as someone who should schedule his TJ surgery in the next 24 months.
If youth wins, then this division will be turned on its ear as early as this year.
It still baffles me to no end as to why many are saying that the O’s should have spent more money on high end free agents. They really do not need to spend that wheel of money vs. possible gains for a team that is rapidly becoming full of young talent at the MLB level. Elias has created a great plan for this team and it will blossom soon. Like someone said it may be this year or the next but it could be and very will be before too long that this team will contend for the AL East Crown.
I think the Baltimore rotation is somewhat underrated. I think they finish 3rd in the division which might be good enough for a WC in the postseason.
John Angelos quote I’m very transparent. In fact, I would invite you and all your colleagues next — not on Martin Luther King Day, you can come back in this building, you can meet me in this office. I’II take you down on the third floor, and I’II show you the financials of the Orioles. I’ll show you the governance of the Orioles. I’ll show you everything you want to know, and I’ll put all your questions. But today, on MLK Day, I’m not answering any of those questions.”
Show the financials? Why? To me it’s just the media stirring up a narrative to get a fan base all riled up; in this case the Orioles. I mean, it looks like the O’s ownership is flush with cash. Proof. You want proof? Well when John’s dad, Peter, wanted to go high payroll, he did. More proof? John says he will make the books available. Why would he say that? Well, maybe, just maybe, he wants to assure the fan base that there’s cash to spend!
When Mike Elias says the rebuild is over, he’s not kidding. The core of players he wants in place to make a run is there; except one, Rodriguez. Losing him to the DL last year is that “fly in the ointment”. And to a lesser extent can Adley and Gunnar repeat what they showed last year? IMHO, that’s a resounding “YES”. How much they spend and on “what side of the ball” will be based on the performance of these three in 23 and hopefully by the 8/2 trade deadline. IMO, it’s just foolish to pluck down big cash on an FA or do some kinda of mega trade at this time.
Orioles:
1. Very little outside improvement made to a below average lineup in 2022. They strike out a lot and have issues getting on base. They are betting heavily on the continued develop of Rutschman and Henderson, and I guess the rest comes to prospects.
2. Very little improvement made to a below average starting staff in 2022. Gibson for Lyles is a net zero swap. Irvin? Take a look at home and away splits and maybe you’ll join me hoping he ends up around average. The rest depends on, you guessed it, hoping prospects like Grayson Rodriguez (coming back from injury, not a given to start the year in Baltimore) early career guys like Kremer and Bradish (could go either way).
3. Very good to excellent bullpen.
4. Adley Rutschman takes the next step forward. .280 with 20-25 HR is a reasonable projection.
Right now I’m guessing 79-83 for the Orioles. There is a high degree of variability around this guess, they could win anywhere from 70 to 90 games and not be shocked either way. That’s because at least 2-3 guys in the lineup and 3+ starters have less than 1 year of MLB experience (or none). That’s putting a LOT on young, mainly unproven players….veterans are more predictable.
Yep, agreed. Right around 500 in 23. On the strikeouts, I thought outside of Mateo and McKenna, as a team, they were okay especially at the top of the order
with Cedric and Adley.
Thornton – I’m confused about your prediction. Baltimore won 83 games last year and their additions in the off season include two pitchers in Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson.plus Means gets back mid season. That sounds like improvement to me.
As a Red Sox fan I admire your GM for putting together a team where nobody costs more than $10MM per year and you actually have talented players unlike Boston. Boston has no Adley Rutschman under control for years or Gunner Henderson. Heck, you had two young guys have normal sophomore slumps in Mountcastle and Mateo and you still won 83 games. They should both bounce back this year. Mullins is a stud and should take a step toward being a perennial all-star. You added a very solid Frazier. And your outfielders are excellent young players who will improve with time.
I think you guys should win 85 to 95 games depending on injuries and Means arriving mid season without set backs. I’d trade you the Red Sox roster for your roster any day. Remember, most players have sophomore slumps and bounce back nicely in year three. Your team is filled with unproven and young players but they have upside. Boston has guys like Kiki Hernandez a lifetime .241 hitter as their starting SS. It’s pathetic.
I think Baltimore surpasses TB this year and finishes 3rd in the division.