The Twins entered the offseason with ample payroll room but have mostly stuck to smaller-scale additions. Kyle Farmer was brought in from the Reds to act as shortstop insurance in the event Carlos Correa departed. Christian Vázquez inked a three-year free agent deal to address the catcher situation the front office had prioritized, while Joey Gallo signed a one-year deal two weeks ago.
That latter move added another left-handed bat to what had already been a fairly crowded outfield mix. Even with Mark Contreras designated for assignment in a corresponding move, the Twins have nine listed outfielders on their 40-man roster. Six of them hit left-handed, which makes it seem likely they’ll subtract at least one from the group in a deal that nets help elsewhere on the roster.
Most of the attention will be focused on right fielder Max Kepler. He’s the most straightforward trade candidate in the outfield and has drawn some interest earlier in the offseason. Kepler is the most expensive of the group, due at least $9.5MM through the end of next season on the contract extension he signed back in 2019. Controllable via club option through 2024, he has the least amount of contractual control of anyone in the group.
That could all make the 29-year-old Kepler the most likely Twins outfielder to be dealt, but it’s also going to tamp down the appeal he’ll have on the trade market. He’s coming off a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine home runs through 446 plate appearances, his second straight season hitting slightly worse than league average. Kepler’s 36-homer showing from 2019 looks like an outlier. His plus defense in right field, quality plate discipline and perhaps a forthcoming benefit from the limitations on shifting mean he should still have some trade value on his contract, but Minnesota’s not likely to recoup an overwhelming return.
If the offers on Kepler aren’t especially persuasive, could president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their staff turn attention elsewhere? Minnesota has a number of younger outfielders who could instead be made available, particularly if the deal nets them help at shortstop and/or in higher-leverage relief innings.
- Nick Gordon (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)
Gordon might be the most appealing of the bunch. A former top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect, his status dipped from 2018-21. Gordon’s bat had seemed to stall out in the upper minors and his middle infield defense wasn’t exceptional enough to overcome it. It seemed as if he could find himself on the roster bubble after a tough rookie season in 2021, but Gordon was a valuable utility option for Minnesota last year. He hit .272/.316/.427 with nine homers in 443 plate appearances. Defensive metrics didn’t love his work up the middle but considered him a roughly average left fielder.
The 27-year-old isn’t entirely without question marks. He has a very aggressive offensive approach that consistently leads to modest walk totals. Some clubs figure to have concerns about how often he’ll maintain a suitable on-base percentage. Yet he’s also shown some defensive flexibility and hit very well when holding the platoon advantage. Last season, Gordon posted a .289/.329/.465 line against right-handed pitching and his 41.5% hard hit rate against northpaws ranked 12th among 299 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. He’s exhausted his minor league option years, meaning he has to stick on the big league roster.
- Trevor Larnach (controllable through 2027, eligible for arbitration after 2024)
Larnach is also a former first-round pick who was a top minor league talent for a number of seasons. He’s shown solid power and plate discipline in the minors but the production has been more intermittent against big league pitching. The Oregon State product is a .226/.316/.371 hitter in 130 MLB games the past two years. Larnach has walked at a robust 10.2% clip while making plenty of hard contact. He’s offset those promising numbers with a few more grounders than ideal and, more importantly, a strikeout rate pushing 34%.
While he doesn’t have much defensive versatility, Larnach is a quality defender in the corner outfield. He’ll be 26 in February and is still two seasons from qualifying for arbitration. He probably hasn’t done enough to cement himself as an everyday player in the crowded Minnesota outfield but has shown enough promise to believe he could be a quality regular if he can even modestly improve his contact rate. Larnach’s 2022 season ended in June after he underwent surgery to repair a strain in his core muscle. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so it’s possible he heads back to Triple-A St. Paul if he sticks in Minnesota.
- Alex Kirilloff (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)
Another former first-round draftee and top prospect, Kirilloff hasn’t yet found much MLB success. He’s a .251/.295/.398 hitter in 104 MLB games, a disappointing start for a player whose bat is his carrying tool. It’s obvious Kirilloff’s capable of more if he can stay healthy, though, considering he’s had each of the past two seasons cut short by right wrist issues that necessitated surgery.
Kirilloff is still just 25 and mashed with St. Paul in 2022, posting a .359/.465/.641 line with ten homers in 35 games. That brought his career minor league slash line up to .328/.378/.519 in parts of five seasons. The Minnesota front office may have no interest in selling low on Kirilloff given that kind of offensive upside, but other clubs figure to at least inquire whether they can buy low given his injury issues. He has one option season left.
- Matt Wallner (controllable through at least 2028)
Wallner is the least established of the group. The former Southern Mississippi star just made it onto the MLB roster as a September call-up. He played 18 games down the stretch. Wallner, who draws praise from prospect evaluators for his power potential, otherwise split the season between Double-A Wichita and St. Paul. He hit .277/.412/.542 with 32 home runs in 571 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Wallner just turned 25 and still has all three options remaining.
Wow!
Kepler is not the holy grail, get over it, Bench help at best…
If Kepler were to give the Yankees even league-average offense, his defense would make him a solid upgrade and would give the Yankees arguably the best defensive outfield in baseball with him, Bader and Judge. I’d be content with him as the starting left fielder.
He is not a starter anywhere, he’s weak except for a late inning replacement. If you want him, take him, but don’t b**** about him afterwards like SD did with Hosmer.
If the Yankees are going to spend prospect capital, I hope they do better than Kepler. Right now they have Cabrera who provides good defense and what looks to be at least league average batting.
The Rays won the division in 2021 with Kiermaier’s league-average offense and superb defense. Don’t underestimate the value of saved runs, especially considering the effect on the pitching staff.
@Fink- I like Kepler’s power, but the problem is he’s never played leftfield before. And as you know leftfield at Yankee Stadium can be likened to the “Bermuda Triangle” so that’s my major concern with Kepler. The more popular choice of course would be to acquire Bryan Reynolds in a 3 way trade. The Yankees definitely have pieces that the Marlins could use. Gleyber, Evan Pereira, Trey Sweeney Luis Gil, Darren Thorpe, Will Warren and others. The Pirates could take Pablo López, Joey Wendle and a prospect like Jake Eder from the Marlins. Wendle does make some sense for the Yankees if they deal Torres though.
I’d counter that with the Yankees won the division running Joey Gallo out there a good part of the year. Winning the division isn’t the goal. Winning a WS is and they don’t need to skimp on any position (within reason).
@CaptainJudge99
The Yankees played Miguel Andujar in left field, and he acquitted himself just fine.
I wouldn’t worry about it too much. I don’t think Cashman is going to trade for Kepler.
If they’re still in talks with the appropriately named Pirates for Reynolds, they should offer them Clarke Schmidt in a package, since they’ve blocked him with the trade for Montas and he belongs in a starting rotation, not in a bullpen.
@Fink- yes, Schmidty can definitely be offered in a package for Reynolds. The Yankees are banking on Montas having an excellent year, before free agency. Frankie doesn’t have to be an ace like he was in Oakland, being a #5 in the rotation takes all the pressure off of him in 2023. Regardless, of what fans are saying the Yankees definitely have the pieces to acquire Reynolds without having to give up Volpe, Dominguez, or Peraza. Pittsburgh should definitely move BR, while he still has the value he has right now. Gil, Schmidt, Pereira/Sweeney and Thorpe/Warren could get it done. Everson Pereira could play any of the outfield positions right when the season starts for the Pirates, and also displays power, contact, and speed. Nice player.
Pittsburgh are on record for all thirty MLB teams to know that Reynolds only is traded if the headliner of the trade is a top forty pitcher in MLB’s top 100 prospects. Exactly who do the Yankees have that fits that description? They aren’t getting Reynolds for scraps and a wanna be. It is Andujar and Frazier offerings again for players and everyone knows how that worked out. If the Yankees want Reynolds, they start with Volpe, Dominguez, Peraza, and since they don’t have a pitcher Pittsburgh wants, they MUST include those three prospects to open the discussion. Anything less is a waste of time.
@Wisdom- now all of a sudden Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt are chopped liver? Let’s stop pretending Bryan Reynolds is Willie Mays! Say Hey he’s not!
Yeah, the Yankees should give Cherington all their top prospects for an outfielder with a 2.9 fWAR. There were “only” 68 position players with a higher fWAR in 2022.
Do you know which centerfielder ranked at the bottom in Outs Above Average last year among 46 qualified centerfielders? Yup. Bryan Reynolds.
Daulton Varsho, who compiled a 4.6 fWAR and runs rings around Reynolds in the outfield, went to the Blue Jays for two players, their top prospect catcher and an outfielder they could afford to lose.
Welcome to Earth. Enjoy your stay.
Cherington needs to drink the reality potion.
Forget about it. Reynolds isn’t as great as you make him out to be.
Curly I tend to agree. He’s had a nice run. Most guys don’t make it 10-15 years. Keplers decline has be steady and sharp. He looks like he may be a better fit back East at this point.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-kepler-59…
Max Kepler’s statcast page is extremely appealing. An analytically inclined FO will probably jump on him if he’s dangled. He’s a great RF defensively too. The O’s don’t need Kepler but I would not mind the team kicking the tires. Some team that needs an OF should be calling.
SODOMOJO, what do you mean his decline has been steady and sharp? He had two seasons with an above-average OPS+, and one was 2019 with a juiced ball. His 2021 OPS+ was higher than in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
That .220 stuff isn’t gonna fly in the post shift era. Just my opinion. Keps batting war has steadily declined since the juice year. Great natural pop good d, but even when he cut down on the strikeout rate this year the batting average didn’t get back up to the .240 league average range.
Certainly, 2023 will be a good opportunity for him to shut me up. The shift is gone, and I know he can pull the ball
@Fink:
Keps wrc+ via fangraphs
2019-122
20-109
21-97
22-95
Keps batting and base running combine rate via fangraphs:
2019-14.9
20-4.4
21-3.0
22: -1.8
2019-
Dangit. Ignore that 2019- at the bottom lol
baseball-reference.com/players/k/keplema01.shtml#a…
Another classic example of people reading too much into analytics. The eye test works for me and Kepler doesn’t pass unless you’re looking for an IL upgrade.
Just wondering, are you a Twins fan? If not, how many of Kepler’s games have you watched?
If you’re asking me how many Twins games I watch I would say a few but I watch as many games as I can regardless of team so I may have seen more than a few or less. With that said it doesn’t matter because I watch baseball and have for decades so I can say reasonably that I can tell the difference between a good player and an average player or a crap player. Kepler is a fourth OF on a team like the Yankees. His numbers bear that out. Defense means nothing to me as most of these guys are a few percentage points apart for the most part which only makes a difference to people trying to push silly analytics like they mean something. In no world is Max Kepler a difference maker on a baseball field. He’s got some decent pop but he’s always injured so who cares? His career OPS is under .800 in fact all his numbers are blah.
“Another classic example of people reading too much into analytics. The eye test works for me and Kepler doesn’t pass”
“If you’re asking me how many Twins games I watch I would say a few”
So, what I gather from that is that you think that watching Kepler in a handful of games tells you more than a season’s worth — or multiple seasons’ worth — of statistics.
Oh, wait . . .
“Kepler is a fourth OF on a team like the Yankees. His numbers bear that out.”
So then, stats DO matter!
But wait . . . there’s more!
“Defense means nothing to me as most of these guys are a few percentage points apart for the most part which only makes a difference to people trying to push silly analytics like they mean something.”
So then, stats DON’T matter . . . again. Or maybe the statistics don’t matter only when they don’t support your impressions and opinions . . . or something.
Last I heard, Ronald Acuna was the starting right fielder for the Braves. His fWAR last year was 2.2 in 533 plate appearances. Kepler’s was 2.0 in 446 plate appearances, same fWAR as Chas McCormick, the starting left fielder of the Houston Astros. Michael Taylor was the Royals’ starting center fielder last year, and he compiled 1.5 fWAR.
Aaron Hicks is listed as the Yankees’ starting left fielder in the current depth chart. The only Yankee who played more innings in the outfield than Hicks last year was Aaron Judge, and Hicks’s fWAR was 1.5.
So, like I said, “If Kepler were to give the Yankees even league-average offense, his defense would make him a solid upgrade” . . . even though Hicks played in 15 more games than Kepler and had 7 more plate appearances. Kepler’s 95 wRC+ was slightly better than Hicks’s 90 wRC+, but his fielding was much better, with 11 OAA to Hicks’s 1 OAA and 9 DRS to Hicks’s 4 DRS, even though Hicks played 95.1 more innings in the field.
Now, if they want to give Cabrera the starting left fielder job, that’s fine with me. Even though he came up as an infielder, he was credited with 9 DRS, same as Kepler, in only 278.2 innings, and his 1 OAA was the same as Hicks’s. And is 111 wRC+ was better than both of them. He’s younger, cheaper, and probably has a higher ceiling.
But if Cashman is thinking of using Cabrera as a utility player and giving preference to Hicks as the starting left fielder because of the stupid contract he gave him, I’d much rather have Kepler starting in left field than Hicks — because defense DOES matter, a lot. And, yes, he would be an upgrade compared to Hicks.
I agree Curly I don’t get the connection between the Yankees and Kepler and this site has been pushing it for a while. I doubt the Yankees have any interest in another injury prone Twins OF. They definitely have a better option in house with Cabrera so why trade for a guy that’s gonna sit on the IL for half the season?
Alright, You convinced me. Gordon for Marco or Flexen.
Would love to see the Braves swing a deal for Kepler, would be as good as what we have at the plate and way better D in left field.
all due respect, and with understanding that the link provided would give me this information, but given that this article is about the twins’ outfield options, i would think all nine of the outfielders on their 40 are at least worth mentioning the names of, if not another blurb like the six detailed in this, thanks for the read!
The mouse click was really that difficult?
Twins will be sellers by trade deadline. Might as well deal someone with some value like Kirilloff
A bunch of outfielders is correct. High production in the majors not so much. Anyone who trades for any of these guys is hoping they can figure it out. Not a ton of value in hope they can figure it out.
It would be selling low on AK, Kepler or Larnach.
Signing Gallo makes no sense. The signings and trade of Nelson Cruz are really the only thing Falvey and Levine have going for them. Every pitcher they trade for is hurt. Donaldson didn’t really work out, Correa same, pagan and Paddack is a complete dumpster fire, Mahle hurt, Maeda hurt, archer/Bundy/shoemaker all bleh. Garver netted a season of Gio and Sanchez minus a rortvedts worth of value. Release Eddie then watch him be a playoff monster. Sonny has been good when healthy but it will be years before we see what Chase Petty turns into. Trade for all star Jorge Lopez who all of a sudden is the same Jorge Lopez from the rest of his career.
They’ll be lucky if one of their “starters” can reach 150 innings this year before they blow out half their bullpen arms and sign 7 waiver claims to get through the season
ohyeadam;
What you’re pointing out (and doing an excellent job of it) is about the Twins lack of an organization.
Maybe the guys at the top of the FO are crummy and don’t bring in decent ballplayers. Maybe the coaches (hitting, pitching, defense, baserunning) are crummy and don’t bring out not the best in those players other than average at best. Maybe the manager is crummy and has no idea haw to use his players effectively. Maybe the manager is taking instructions from the FO and analytical staff and isn’t being allowed to manage. Maybe the ownership is interfering with what the FO is trying to do.
All I can see is that it’s an organization in name only. Everyone has their jobs, and they’re seemingly getting paid decently for sort of doing them. There appear to be no patterns as to whether they’re contenders or rebuilders – they just seem to be trashing around for 4-6 years now chancing their tail. A rudderless ship, no leadership at all.
I just think GMs fall in love with prospects like everyone else does – then make emotional based decisions like “Royce Lewis is untouchable” when in all reality – at his peak value – could have headlined any trade. And krilloff could have headlined most trades at his peak value. Those were two huge misses that teams can’t make when they are trying to compete w Yankees and Astros.
Outside of that, life’s WAY better as a twins fan than most franchises out there
They have attempted win now moves lately which I appreciate as a fan. Problem is Twins still have the longest playoff loss streak in the history of the 4 major sports leagues in the US.
I agree with a lot of this summary. I would call the Maeda trade a win, based on what the Twins gave up, what they knew then, how good he was in 2020 and whatever upside he has to contribute post-surgery in 2023.
I’d lean toward calling the Gray trade a win too, although I agree that we won’t be able to compare him with Petty for years. Just given the real possibility that Petty never becomes as good a MLB pitcher as Gray has been, and that the Twins needed better starting pitching in the near term, I think that trade succeeded at what it was trying to do. It just wasn’t enough
Maeda is at best a push for the twins imo. His great shortened season isn’t worth a career of filth from Brusdar.
And Pineda was actually a good result from a free agent signing
The list of misses is so much longer. It’s been fun to watch all the wheeling and dealing, the Terry Ryan era was very dull for player movement. It’s such an open division, Detroit spins its wheels, white Sox can’t get out of their own way, Cleveland trades everyone but Jose away and the royals are still the royals. Do something to put your stamp on it instead of nitpicking the edges of Matt shoemaker and Alex colome.
They need to stop targeting injury riddled players because they’re cheaper
I always thought Pineda would have been a better reliever. He would be lights out the first 3 innings and then get lit up.
Joe Ryan looks pretty good from a trade
@Trident – definitely, & I think the original post notes this (regarding the Cruz trade)
I’d love to see the O’s take Jorge Lopez back and re-fix him.
The Twins will get back 1/4 of the return they gave away. Let’s see it happen!
BStrowman;
I thought the the day the O’s traded him, and believe I wrote that that’s what would happen.
I was hoping Lopez back to the Os as well. And maybe Elias tried to make this happen but unsuccessful so pivoted to Givens?
I doubt the Twins wanted to admit failure on that front already. Bad look to send him back for less to Baltimore after a few months.
Have to believe Levine/Falvey would rather send him anywhere else if they were looking to dump. I expect he’ll open in the MIN bullpen
@BStrow, Happy New Year. Interesting take. Liked “open in the MIN bullpen”. Maybe he “rights the ship” and becomes of value to them or is an 8/2 deal to another thus get more in return instead of now.
happy NY to you as well, Jeff.
Perhaps Elias also thought Lopez was performing over his head. This may not only be on the Twins lack of coaching. That’s also totally possible in this equation. Lopez was and probably still is more useful than the prospects we got back for ‘23. But Elias may have thought Lopez is more of a high 3 ERA reliever and saw an opportunity to sell high as he was performing much better.
Cano is now optionable relief depth and Povich has a shot to be a #4/5 type starter down the line. We didn’t get a home run package back but Elias may be able to squeeze out another gem.
It’ll be interesting to see Povich this year. He’s definitely the biggest piece of the return. Struggled in AA to end the year but this was also his first professional season where he pitched a full year.
He’s got a good looking curveball and a real chance to stick in a rotation. Cano might be a middle reliever for us this year. He’ll at least be on the Norfolk/Baltimore shuttle. The other 2 guys look like a hope and a prayer but you never know.
FYI— Bradish wasn’t rated much differently than Povich when we acquired him for Bundy.
Hoping for a similar outcome. Same type of trade too. The Elias special. 4 pitching prospects for 1 arm. (Bundy and Lopez)
We had 1/4 hit last time.
I’d argue that Kiriloff is the most appealing of this group, not Gordon. His minor league numbers were far, far superior, and he’s about two years younger.
I’d love to hear from any Twins fans who have seen Kiriloff on a daily basis what they think Kiriloff’s issues have been in translating his skills to the pros. From the pure numbers, it seems like is striking out too much and walking too little. Thoughts?
With Kirilloff it has been injuries that has limited him. Two wrist surgeries in two years. Hopefully he’s past that now and can blow up the majors!
Eric T;
I believe Trevor Larnach “is the most appealing of this group”. Doubt he’s available. The Twins have to ruin him first, then they’ll make him available. That’s their pattern the last 4-6 years.
A lot of these guys feel like additional pieces in a trade. They should try and get Gordon back at shortstop to fill that hole and put Farmer in the utility slot. Package Kepler with an intriguing pitching prospect and something solid will come back.
So, what do the Twins need most? All teams usually need good pitching. Seems like the Marlins would be a perfect match.
Top of the rotation starter and BP guys are the biggest needs.
Buxton. Sell high while he still has value.
Twins would need to offer a threefer, team bus and bag of used balls. There’ll all spares and only have experience because the FO is too cheap to pay good players.
Yeah!
Like Correa last year.
That was a sucker deal for a guy who didn’t produce at an elite level. And paying Buxton was a mistake for the insurance underwriter.
Bottom line is the Twins organization doesn’t lose money. Recent history shows big-payday-eligible players are as good as gone.
The Buxton deal wasn’t bad. It’s heavy with performance incentives. it’s a pretty affordable deal overall. Would be a bargain if he could actually stay on the field for a full season.
Mn needs to get off the dime there, they dont have exceptional major league talent to trade from, i dont see how they can expect to get much major league value in return for the likes of kepler. Looking at their roster Buxton and Polanco would draw interest, Sonny Gray, but beyond that, they would have to package multiple players to return impact major league talent. They might need a hard re-set soon.
Expect to see Gray, Polanco, Maeda, Gallo, etc. on the trading block by mid-season. Which is sad, really, because it wouldn’t have taken much more than what the team currently has to take the Central this year. Twins could have easily afforded two more quality free agents and made it happen. Might have even gotten at least one win in post season.
Cleon Jones;
They replaced one owner from the Pohlad family with another. The one currently acting as owner worked in Baseball Ops somewhere the last few years. Obviously had his behind kissed a lot.
The issue is whether he’s man enough to review the entire operation, and (probably with the help of an adviser / consultant / whatever) learn how to structure a winning MLB organization – roles and responsibilities / setting up checkpoints to assure all factions are doing their jobs…and only their jobs – and then go about making the changes needed to have have one with the Minnesota Twins.
No couple of free agent signings or trades are going to do anything to change the direction the Twins have been in for years….because the Twins have obviously been lacking direction.
Family run operation? That says something….wonder how they set up ownership shares? Thats not just minority owners to satisfy, whole different thing. Making decisions on free agent contracts like a Correa must be a project just to get thruogh the family interests. No wonder that team always seems to be stuck between almost good but not quite. Well, good luck to them…like to see the mn abd kc’s if the world turn the worm every now and then.
The previous owner is deceased and his three sons have equal shares but only one son was involved with the Twins day to day. The family has a lot of investments and business dealings so I don’t think it’s ever been a “too many cooks” thing. Only one was making the decisions.
One brother is in the entertainment business (producer/director) and the third brother deals with their other companies. Can’t remember if they still are involved with Pepsi, but that was one of the things he was involved in.
That is so much mid, it’s hard to grasp. All those guys can be borderline starters/bench bats/platoons etc. None are truly terrible but none stand out to actually get something decent back in a trade. But why hoard average outfielders anyways?
The upside for Kirilloff and Larnach, at least, is still well more than borderline starter or bench bat. But I agree that it’s easy to see other teams not valuing them that way in a trade right now.
“Northpaws”?
I like that.
Kepler probably stays put. I fail to see a contender that needs a RF.
The Yankees need a LF. The Mariners could use Kepler in RF with Kelenic playing LF and Teoscar at DH. Texas could use Kepler in RF and play Garcia in LF. The Brewers could use Kepler and rotate him, Winker and Yelich between the OF/DH. The Padres, because well, the Padres. The Rays if the Twins eat some cash. The Mets were interested in bringing back Conforto so you never know there. The Marlins love corner Outfielders and need offense.
Lots of places Kepler *could* go if the Twins really want to trade him
It’s definitely a crowded mix of OF’s.
A plethora of mediocrity, I’m sure one or two might become a MLB regular, but which one or two?
All that “depth” and none have been able to stay healthy.
Would like to see another team acquire Wallner if Twins aren’t too keen on him
Nobody looks too attractive to me as a Yankees fan who’s looking for the Yankees to get a left fielder. None of these players moves the needle much , if it all. For us anyway. I prefer to look elsewhere.
Yankees need to go large, try to pry Reynolds. Why nibble with mediocre now?
Presumably because the Yankees do want to keep a couple prospects to replenish the team when needed. Young guys are needed.
Kepler would be a fine add for NY. He adds a LH bat and they’re pretty solid throughout the lineup. Volpe & or Peraza should contribute this year