With just about a month left before Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today as the offseason enters its final stretch:
1. What does Correa’s return mean for the rest of Minnesota’s lineup?
In signing Carlos Correa to a six-year, $200MM deal, the Twins have successfully retained their top offseason target and transformed their lineup. They’ve also created something of a roster crunch. Correa, Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, and Jose Miranda will get regular infield work, with versatile infielder Kyle Farmer and infielder/outfielder Nick Gordon serving as utility options. That entire group is under team control through at least the 2024 season, and by then, Royce Lewis will likely have returned from injury while prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, both already at Double-A, could be knocking on the door of the big leagues.
It’s a similar look in the outfield, where Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo and Max Kepler are currently penciled in as the starters, with Gordon, Gilberto Celestino, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner as possible alternatives. With their current glut of position players, it would make sense if the Twins more explored offers on the trade market. Kepler, in particular, has been viewed as a trade candidate — even more so in the wake of Minnesota’s signing of Gallo.
2. Does the Rojas swap portend more moves?
Longtime Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas was traded last night to the Dodgers in exchange for Jacob Amaya, filling a hole in L.A.’s roster left by Trea Turner’s departure. Could this deal spur both clubs into more action? For the Dodgers, Rojas’ $5MM salary puts the club on track to pay into the luxury tax, when they had previously seemed to be trying to avoid. Could Los Angeles look to shed salary through trade? Or is it possible that the club gives up on staying under the luxury tax and participates more aggressively in the trade market going forward to improve the club in 2023?
Meanwhile, Miami gave themselves a lot more flexibility by moving Rojas. Amaya could be a serviceable infielder for them in 2023 (perhaps in a platoon with Joey Wendle) alongside Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura. On the other hand, without surefire starters at every infield position anymore, it’s possible that this deal allows the club to widen their scope when looking for partners in a trade for one of their starting pitchers. Previously, it seemed reasonable to assume they would focus on improving the outfield, but without Rojas, but perhaps there’s some extra consideration now given to MLB-ready infielders.
3. O’Hearn DFA Conclusion Coming
Last week, the Orioles designated first baseman Ryan O’Hearn for assignment. The outcome of that DFA is due today. O’Hearn’s four years of service time surpasses the minimum three years required to reject an outright assignment, although rejecting an outright would mean forgoing the $1.4MM deal he agreed to earlier in the offseason. O’Hearn debuted in 2018, slashing .262/.353/.597 (153 wRC+) in 170 plate appearances with the Royals that season, but he’s struggled to a .211/.282/.351 (68 wRC+) slash in 901 MLB plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season. The O’s designated O’Hearn just days after acquiring him in a trade — seemingly part of their ongoing effort to stash some lefty-swinging first base depth in Triple-A.
Nick; so my Os are gambling that the 1.4 is enough collateral to keep other suitors away?
I think they’re separate issues. IF no other team makes a claim on his waiver, then he has to make a decision whether to accept AAA assignment to Tidewater or if he wants to bring his bat and go somewhere else, that extension and $1.4M contract is null. Interesting and clever of the O’s.
If another team claims him, he still gets the $1.4M paid by KC less league min that the new team would shoulder. Unless they put him back on the DFA bus themselves.
If a team claims him they inherit the full contract. Only if he clears waivers and is released would KC owe $1.4 mill minus the minimum if he were to sign another MLB deal. But it appears they are willing to pay him that $ to play at AAA.
I don’t know if I understand MLB waiver contract deals completely. If he rejects the assignment doesn’t he reject the contract as well? Does it depend on service time on whether those go hand in hand or not? Does it depend on whether the deal is arbitration or not? (I get this one is not an arbitration ruling.)
Win, wouldn’t the O’s have the responsibility for the $1.4 mill. since they traded for O’Hearn, and presumably his contract? Or was it part of the trade that KC covered his salary? I couldn’t find anything indicating KC was responsible for the $1.4 mill.
You’re correct, I meant to indicate BAL not KC. Since BAL bought the contract they are into O’Hearn for his full salary (unless claimed) plus whatever they paid KC for him.
OPS in the .600’s for O’Hearn’s age 25-28 seasons should be ample turnoff. The $1.4 mill. just seals the deal.
Twins may have 7 names in the outfield but Kirilloff, larnach, and kepler all have some significant injury history, and Buxton is a piece of glass. They’re not quite as flexible as it seems.. though they do need to move someone for pitching for sure
agree but also saying Gallo is a starter is scary. no way he isn’t platooned vs a lhp
The only one of the other Outfielders listed that hits RH is Celestino, the others are all LH hitters
Kepler… prospects prospects prospects… or as I know them suspects… suspects…suspects..
Still if 1/2 those guys are injured its still a much stronger OF than the Yankees sans arson judge
White Sox could do worse than targeting Wendle via trade. As a rental, he shouldn’t cost all that much and the defense would improve quite a lot, even if the bat is just average for his career (OPS+ of 101).
White Sox need to stay healthy. Love their moves In off-season. Defense and speed.
The signed Hanser Alberto, thats probably about all you can expect out of Hahn to address 2B at this point (still more than bloom has done to address the Red Sox glaring middle Infield woes)
Apparent that the Twins have been offered nothing.
Los Karens made a solid move.
With Soler and Garcia being oft injured if the Marlins are going to trade a P or 2 they need some pop in return
Or a P to Twins for Austin Martin wouldnt be a bad move either
Brooks Lee is going to be a star ! He’s the best twins prospect since buxton and will make the show this coming season. If twins can get anything out of Miranda Lewis and krilloff- they could pull away in a top heavy central and should be considered favorites w Correa signing.
I like the Sox and Indians too. It’s gonna be a fun division to watch this season
Brooks Lee has played 31 games in his minor league career. You think he’s ready for MLB pitching?
I somewhat agree, but I’d trade Lewis now, along with a DVD of his performance last spring before he blew up his knee again. H’s kept his head up and his feet moving through this whole injury thing and it sounds like he should be good for the second half. Deserves a shot somewhere and Lee might pass him up by June, but even if he doesn’t Noah Miller is a year behind with a genuine SS glove and emerging bat so he’s going to have to battle to keep his Top SS Prospect spot in the org.
The Rojas deal only makes the Orioles and Marlins more compatible in a deal. Would you like a gold glove 3B or a fielding bible SS to go with your OF? We’ve got both available.
The Twins have a gently used Max Kepler in stock and a refurbished Royce Lewis should be on the lot soon.
Have to bank the $1.4 million. It’s likely a minors or split contract elsewhere.
Completely agree. After tax about $900k. Live on $100k, bank the rest. If he never makes it back to the majors, he can supplement the income from a regular job with earnings on his $800k and have a good life. Or ride a bus for $30k and hope he can make it back to The Show. Pretty easy choice to me.
The Twins have Gordon as the back-up Centerfielder for when Iron Byron needs welding.. Pencil him in the outfield mix… Unfortunately the Twins seem to want to trad Arraez…. instead of unproven prospects…. stupid as as stupid does..
I feel like Buxton is going to see a fair share of DH AB’s with Gordon/Celestino seeing significant time in CF. They have to try anything to keep Buxton’s bat in the lineup
Buxton has been hurt at the plate at least as often as in the field, notably a HBP and sliding into second, so DH won’t necessarily help much. He’s going to play hard where ever he gets a shot and the team is going to have to accept that. Correa was able to get into his head a bit last year, so maybe he’ll be a bit more careful, but Buxton is gonna Buxton and that’s a big part of his awesomeness.
Rojas doesn’t exactly fill the hole left by MVP candidate, Trea Turner. He more accurately replaces the bench role left by the departed Hanser Alberto.
The Marlins just picked up Cueto. They can afford to trade a starter or two.
They have some top pitching prospects on the horizon… why not package two starters and get a really nice return?
Sandy Alcantara and Trevor Rogers to the Orioles for Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullens. This gives the Orioles 2 top starters and the Marlins get a SS, 3B and CF
Might be an overpay on the Orioles part, but that is a pretty good/even offer.
I don’t think Gunnar is going anywhere, in any deal.
“Miami gave themselves a lot more flexibility by moving Rojas. Amaya could be a serviceable infielder for them in 2023 (perhaps in a platoon with Joey Wendle) alongside Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura. On the other hand, without surefire starters at every infield position anymore, it’s possible that this deal allows the club to widen their scope when looking for partners in a trade for one of their starting pitchers.”
I don’t think you know what flexibility means. Creating a hole in your infield doesn’t give you more flexibility—it gives you another hole to fill.
Keep Kepler for the defense and trade one of Larnach or Kiriloff for a larger return. They don’t need the salary relief of Keplers $8.5 mil
I think the Twins have seen enough of Kepler. Even though it’s highly likely Kepler sees a big rebound in performance due to the shift changes this year (nobody was shifted more or harder than Kepler), I’m sure the Twins don’t view him as a team player considering his refusal to get vaccinated. That also kills any potential AL East trade opportunities. It feels a lot like Kepler is suffering from Sano-itis or rather an excess of hubris.
The shine on Larnach has dulled, I’m sure on everybody around the league. He’s never truly hit for power, and Kirilloff’s career is in question after a radical, last ditch surgical procedure to allow him to swing the bat without pain.
In any case, while Arraez is a fan favorite, he collapsed in the second half as he got more aggressive outside the zone and his BABIP fell as he started to try and hit more balls in the air. First half .338/.411/.445 wRC+ 150 10.6% BB, 8.0% K, 27.6% O-Swing, Second half .289/.325/.389 wRC+ 106, 5.1% BB, 5.9% K, 30.0% O-Swing. Arraez does have elite contact skills, but his defense is poor due in part to lousy glove work and part due to his surprisingly slow speed. His knee problems are over-hyped. He played in 144 games last year on a team where the manager pulls guys from the mound or the lineup he ever sees a bead of sweat. Arraez could be great if he puts in some work and remembers to be patient.
Gordon is potentially the most valuable of the Twins outfielders, but his potential is difficult to get a grasp on because of his Eddie Rosario-like refusal to take walks, without Rosario’s hit tool. Surprisingly good and getting better, but he’ll need to prove it for more time considering the Twins would have been willing to DFA him early in the year if all the injuries hadn’t mounted up.
Miranda is probably the best trade option. Limited defense. Poor speed. Questionable game power and it seems like a lot of his production could be luck, but he put up some real nice numbers as a rookie after destroying AAA in 2021. Teams are likely to overpay for him right now.
Royce Lewis is probably on the trade table, but teams aren’t going to be offering up much until he’s back playing and the Twins certainly aren’t going to sell low on him after he looked like a RoY candidate last year.