With less than six weeks left until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today in the baseball world:
1. Correa Talking To Other Clubs Again
For a few weeks now, Carlos Correa and the Mets have been trying to work the kinks out of their 12-year, $315MM agreement due to issues with the same old injury that gave the Giants pause in their 13-year, $350MM agreement with the All-Star. It appears those negotiations are no longer entirely exclusive, as Correa’s camp has resumed discussions with at least one team besides the Mets due to the difficulties hammering out a final agreement in New York. Correa’s free agency has been one of the biggest and strangest stories of the offseason, and that’s sure to remain the case until it eventually reaches a proper conclusion.
2. What does the added rotation depth in Milwaukee mean for Houser?
The Brewers fortified their rotation this week by signing Wade Miley and added another depth arm with their waiver claim of Bryse Wilson, who’s out of minor league options (and thus will need to be on the roster or else again designated for assignment). With Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta already locked into starting roles for the club, it seems likely that Miley will compete with Eric Lauer and Aaron Ashby for the final two spots in the rotation, with the third lefty likely joining the bullpen alongside Wilson. Adrian Houser already seemed like a possible trade candidate for Milwaukee considering the number of clubs looking for starting pitching in a thin market, but with even more depth in Milwaukee now, it’s possible that a trade has become even likelier. Houser, who’s controllable for two more seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a reasonable $3.6MM through arbitration in 2023, could make sense for a variety of teams looking to add depth to their rotation, including the Angels, Orioles, and Padres.
3. La Stella, Moustakas To Join Free Agent Market
Just as the free agent infield market was thinning out, the Reds and Giants each added another player to the mix, as Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas and San Francisco did the same with Tommy La Stella. The two players have a lot of similarities as they enter the market. Both are lefty-swinging infielders entering their mid-thirties who are capable of playing first, second, and third base. Both have struggled with injuries and under-performance in recent years but have had success as recently as the shortened 2020 season. Perhaps most importantly, both can be had for just the major league minimum in 2023, with their former club still on the hook for the remainder of their contracts.
Either player would be a useful addition to any club if they can rediscover their old form, and there should be teams with a need in the infield who’ll be willing to give them a chance, given the minimal commitment necessary to do so. The Orioles stand out as a particularly interesting match for either Moustakas or La Stella because they recently pursued a lefty infielder in a similar contractual situation: first baseman Eric Hosmer, who ultimately landed with the Cubs. Speculatively speaking, the White Sox, Tigers, Rays, and Cubs are among the other teams who could make sense for this veteran duo.
apparently Correa has serious medical issues that clubs are shying away from signing him to a long term contract
Ya think?
Collusion? … before anyone comments, it was a poor attempt sarcasm (Samuel are you reading this?).
Not sure exactly what the medical issue is….but lower back problems….which he has a history of…doesn’t bode well down the road. I never understood where the hype for Correa came from. Guy has been good, not elite
He’s not a Troutian-level talent, that’s correct, but 39.5 rWAR through his age-27 season is a clear HOF pace. Part of that, though, is him remaining a plus-defender at SS. Moving him to 3B does lower his value, but it’s Cohen’s money to spend and misspend.
rWAR is overrated for sure. He is average defending the SS and average with the bat too. Luck is involved in every sport. Nevertheless rbi and hr are both king. Luck is about 20% in every sport. The proprietary factor$ should be trusted as much as the truth coming out of an agent and their employees commenting in forum like this.
Please check these advanced statistics or metrics or cybermetrics. Pay special attention to FIELDING.
Lateral Towards 3b and 1B.
OAA
Dansby Swanson: 21
Francisco Lindor: 13
Jeremy Pena: 7
Xander Bogaerts: 5
Trea Turner: 0
Javier Baez: 1
Carlos Correa: -3
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=6&roles=&viz=show
Correa
.210 slider
.371 4 seamer
.256 change up
.000 spliter
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/carlos-correa-621043
Use your eyes to evaluate. Having steady partners at second and third can distort saberstats. In Correa’s case, he’s mostly played with good or better defenders and constantly the same. Time will tell if he’s overall in the field better or worse than Bogaerts who got little respect for his glove in Boston yet he primarily had Devers at third and once Pedie got hurt, had a constant change in partners at second.
@LordD99 sums it up perfectly. Correa is an elite SS. Moving him to 3B lowers his value. I think it’s a foolish move for a team that already has an elite SS in Lindor. He’d certainly improve their offense, but Correa would be an absolute game changer for a team without a SS.
The problem with rWar is evident in comparing to his tangible numbers. His rWar may be HOF-pace, but none of his other numbers are representative of a HOF player. Future voters would likely have to ignore his tangible numbers (which have always been benchmarks for election) and focus solely on a statistical measurement that is highly fallible in and of itself because he will likely not reach any significant tallies when it comes to counting stats.
Lol, Correa won the Platinum glove in 2021 and has a career 130 wRC+, he is WAY better than average both offensively and defensively. And the argument that his defensive stats have been propped up by elite defenders around him is preposterous, his INF neighbors have been; Bregman (good but nothing crazy), Altuve (bad), Urshela (bad), and Polanco (possibly the worst defensive 2B in baseball).
It’s fine if you guys don’t like him as a person, but he has objectively performed at a superstar level thus far in his career, and he’s on a borderline HOF path if he continues on his current trajectory.
Again, stop looking through a computer lens and look more at the body of work. I’m more defending Bogaerts than anything else. Also without shifting, we should get a truer picture (I’m still for shifting as batters need to learn how to hit).
If rWAR is overrated, then OAA most assuredly is. Jon Schoop led all MLB in 2022 with 27 OAA, but would that suggest he has an elite glove considering he had a combined 20 OAA in the 5 previous seasons (2017-21)? Also look at UZR that better shows range.
I have yet to be convinced of the usefulness of any of the major defensive metrics.
“Troutain” level? What does that consist of? Being made of glass?
“Troutian levels” = consisting of or pertaining to lake trout
Jurassic Carl: Correa is nowhere near the hitter Trout is. That’s what it consists of.
…playoffs excluded…
Trashcans included…
That goes without saying, but trashcans included, .849 OPS in 334 playoff PA pretty nice.
Every ss signed this off-season can probably be put in the same boat. These aren’t sure fired hall of famers being locked down for life. This is 3-5 WAR players with 4-5 prime years left signed to 10-11-12 year contracts. A couple who aren’t that great on the defensive end.
It’s a fun class of players, entertainment-wise. However, I don’t see any of them putting up HOF numbers by the end of their career. A couple of exceptions:
1. If Tatis is actually as good a hitter as he appeared before the drugs.
2. If Bogaerts is as pure a hitter as he seems and stays healthy for the majority of his contract, he has an outside shot at 3,000 hits.
3. Correa (and other overrated players) if voters stop caring about counting stats and awards and decide that HOF spots should be given to guys for flawed advanced metric stats (which, as someone else said, should be used for contracts but not for determining awards)
This has less to do with expected production from the player and more to do with not being able to get the contract insured. Teams but insurance policies on contracts that long to cover at least a portion of them on the event of a career ending injury. But those insurance policies are contingent on the medical exam done as part of the contract agreement. There’s something that keeps coming up in Correa’s physical exam that makes the insurance companies say no to insuring the contract. It seems Boras incorrectly thought that after SF balked because of that that the Mets and Cohen were being so reckless with their spending that they wouldn’t care about not being able to insure the contract. Now that they’re balking on it too he’s stuck. He’s trying to get yet another team involved to try and convince the Mets that this other team will ignore all of this. That isn’t likely. Sooner or later he’s going to have to cave and allow language in the contract protecting the team if this injury concern causes a career ending issue. That’s the only way forward at this point.
Just because there are rumors (probably initiated by Boras) that Correa is talking to other teams doesn’t mean he is close to a deal with another team or even has another team that poses a threat to the Mets.
Boras has his work cut out to get a deal that both Correa and a team is satisfactory to both parties.
Correa, in all likelihood, is going to have to lessen his demands and realize no team at this point is going to give him a long term contract (beyond 5-6 years) without some form of a protection clause.
Like it or not, Correa is in a difficult situation. Signing a new contract may drag onto Spring Training or beyond.
Just because there are rumors (probably initiated by Boras)
===========================
If the Mets and SFG both turned him down, so far, I seriously doubt he has any suitors. There will always be a few teams with low-ball offers on every player. But no GM is going to make a real offer after the doctors from two teams expressed concerns.
If a GM smells an opportunity to get an elite athlete (when healthy) at a discount — there will always be interest. Also consider that some previous big spenders have needs at SS. I would be shocked if ATL is not the other interested team – on a creative, pillow deal that would allow him to reenter the market. Not ideal for him, but it would be a great situation for him to possibly get that bag.
The Sox picking up Moustakas to play 2B would be the most Sox thing.
I hope you meant Chicago or even Colorado (“Rox”).
Um .. no thank you from this White Sox fan.
Correa is cheating on the Mets now. Or, maybe it’s just Jon Hey(man?) gossiping again.
Houser could move to the pen as well.
And the Brewers will likely roll with a 6 man rotation for significant parts of the season. If Milwaukee is actually looking to improve the run-getters, Lauer would bring back much more.
I’m thinking they trade Lauer. Houser makes more sense as the long relief/sixth starter than Lauer does. And, as you mentioned, Lauer will bring back more in trade. Hopefully, a right fielder. Plus, Lauer is more expensive.
I’m fine with the outfielders they have, incluing the “Big 4” outfield prospects. I’d love to see one of Lauer/Houser packaged with Tyler Black for a year of Matt Chapman with the Jays. Chapman is in his last year before FA and is set to make $12.5mm.. He’d solidify both the offense and defense, and allow Urias to play second, and the cost isn’t prohibitive. I don’t know how motivated the Jays are to deal Chapman, but it always seems they need rotation help.
While technically Lauer is more expensive, the breakdown is:
Lauer- $4.7mm (estimated)/1.3 WAR (predicted)
Houser- $3.6mm/0.4WAR (predicted)
Lauer is predicted to be 3x more valuable at a cost of just $1mm more.
This site has Lauer’s arbitration estimate at $5.2 M.
Weird- Spotrac has 4.7mm
If Correa and Boras are worried about language and nonguaranteed money, than there must be real issues with future injuries because of his leg.
I’m surprised some club hasn’t tried to swoop in yet with a 1yr major money deal. If someone offered him 1yr for 40m, you’d have to think he’d at least consider it, right?
I can see the hesitancy to sign a 1 year deal from the Correa side. For a guy who has never really had back to back healthy-ish seasons unitl 2021-22…try to sign a long term deal..
Cohen would offer that right now. So would other teams. That hadn’t happened because Correa and the Mets want to close a deal with each other.
BREAKING NEWS: Carlos Correa has failed his Taco Bell Physical for the 3rd time…
I think he could find a job playing in Korea. He would be quite a nice fit.
I dont really like “#FireFarhan” and the habitual Giants troll “27champyankees” or “27ringsb*tches” or “TonyGwynnSD19″…
Correa ends up back in Minnesota!
Correa’s going to play in Korea or Japan.
Yesterday I was thinking Houser to the pen. That might not be the greatest idea. He throws a sinker and as the game goes he gets better. He doesn’t usually start off too well, like most sinker ballers.
Sinker baller – get fit in Great American Ball Park. But the Brewers wouldn’t give their division rivals that advantage.
Thought the Brewers tried him out of the pen. Not good results.
IIRC his relief appearances were just as spotty as his starts.
I’d love to see the Jays offer Espinal for Houser, but they’ll never do it! They always feel like they have enough pitching until 2 weeks into the season and they’re floundering like fish out of water
For some reason I think Moose will end up with the Pirates. Don’t know why, just a feeling.
Houser to the O’s for Ramon Urias, Gunnar Henderson starts at 3B.
Twins are led by a couple of idiots who will almost certainly be gone in a season or two, signing a player with an obvious injury risk to a long-term-high-dollar deal would be a perfect parting gift, and one that would set the franchise back years and years… Therefore, look for the Twins to sign him.
Boras is sure ruining these negotiations. He could sign a 3 year deal that kicks into a longer deal if carlos stays healthy but of course Boras wants all or nothing. If 2 teams are hesitant on a contract he is not going to get a third team that is willing to take that big of a gamble for that many years.
The agent doesn’t make the decisions. He advises the client. The player is always in charge.
Boras makes the appeal to the decision. One time a player went to a club and made a deal without Bras knowledge and Boras was very angry about it. Boras negotiates and gives the contract to the player to sign. Boras advises so he makes the most of the decision.
At some point, Boras and Correa may come to the conclusion that all suitors are going to ask about this, and want some protection. It may be that the deal on the table, or, if there isn’t one, a deal pot forward by Boras, might be the one to take. This is still a gigantic amount of money. Maybe you don’t need every last penny of it.
Hopefully Correa calls Cohen’s bluff and goes to the Dodgers on a five year $40 million per year deal
Can we get a Trevor bauer poll before the news comes out? It be fun to see what everyone thinks will happen.
Clearly it’s a sign that no team should announce any signing before the physical check is done. Why would they do that at the first place anyway?
Agree wholeheartedly on these trolls Steinbrenner–
one thing to root for a team and be excited or frustrated by the Operations dept-
another thing to just tear them down just because–
Do we really think Farhan is the one who was spending the 350 million for Correa to SF, or that he was the one who put the hold on the deal?
Nope–he is just the public face we get to make fun of, even though it wasnt his call either way-
Has he made some questionable moves? sure..
Has he made some good ones?…..yep
But rate him on what he has control over, not a 350 million contract originally done and then rejected by ownership
I believe the Trevor Bauer decision for the Dodgers is the headline today and should have been included in this article.
Correa is so injured he played in 148 and 136 games the last two years
Sometimes you have to throw out analytics, go with basic logic, and make a risky move
Both SF and Mets come out looking bad on this. Especially the Mets. They should have just taken a risk and signed Correa without trying to add safety clauses
Every player comes with an injury risk. Are they going to look into Verlanders TJ surgery and try to add protection clauses? You can’t do that. Should have just rolled the dice and signed him
It’s a 300 million dollar gamble. That’s GDP of Micronesia
The Mets gave Brandon Nimmo eight years for crying out loud they aren’t afraid to spend money. There is clearly something very alarming about Correa’s ankle that has had two teams weary of signing him long term.
The main reason deGrom left was because the Mets were overly concerned with MRIs and injuries. They would DL a guy with an insignificant bone spur because they would MRI all the time and find something
You can’t be MRI’ing and overanalyzing medicals constantly
At this point, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Correa ends up with his hat in his hand at the doorstep of the Twins asking “Can I come back and renew our old deal”?
Eventually Correa is going to have shorten up the length with opt outs
I can see the Cubs,Tigers, Angels, White Sox and Pirates going after Moose. Hosmer & Moose are very close friends…think the Cubs could happen. I can also see the Dodgers taking a flier on LaStella.
Moustakas has been significantly worse than Hosmer the last two years. Hosmer for all his flaws is at least a decent hitter who can get on base.
I think LaStella makes a lot of sense for the White Sox. I can’t even believe they mentioned the Cubs who have like 6 2B on the 40 man roster at least. Ridiculous nonsense.
I wonder what the chances are SF goes for Moustakis to play 1b
White Sox, here you go