The Royals have made a pair of relatively low-cost additions to their rotation this offseason. Ryan Yarbrough inked a $3MM guarantee in mid-December, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM commitment a couple weeks later.
Those veteran starters join younger, in-house hurlers like Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Max Castillo and Kris Bubic in the rotation mix for first-year skipper Matt Quatraro. It also raises the possibility that Kansas City’s top free agent of the winter, Zack Greinke, heads elsewhere. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that while Kansas City remains open to bringing Grienke back, the six-time All-Star would likely have to take an incentive-laden contract to return. Such a deal would have a relatively low base salary that’d allow him to unlock bonuses at various innings thresholds.
At the start of November, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Greinke was planning to return to the majors for a 20th season. Heyman wrote at the time Kansas City was hoping to bring the former Cy Young winner back. There was no indication then anything between the Royals and Greinke’s representatives at Excel Sports Management was close. No other team has been substantively linked to the right-hander throughout the offseason.
Greinke began his professional career with K.C. as the sixth overall pick in the 2002 draft. He starred in Kansas City not long after debuting at age 20 in 2004, going on to win the Cy Young after leading the majors with a 2.16 ERA a few years later. Greinke spent parts of seven seasons with the Royals before being dealt to the Brewers in a 2010-11 offseason blockbuster. He’d spend the next decade solidifying a strong Hall of Fame résumé while pitching for Milwaukee, the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros before returning to free agency last winter.
Kansas City brought Greinke back on a one-year, $13MM guarantee that contained an additional $2MM in potential incentives. Teams like the Twins and Tigers reportedly showed strong interest as well, but Greinke relished the opportunity to return to his original organization.
During his return season to Kaufmann Stadium, the 39-year-old threw 137 innings over 26 starts. He posted a solid 3.68 ERA, largely on the strength of his typically excellent control. Greinke only walked 4.6% of batters faced, the 13th-lowest mark among 140 pitchers with 100+ innings. No pitcher within that group had a lower strikeout percentage than Greinke’s 12.5% rate, while his 7.3% striking strike rate is fourth from the bottom. Greinke’s fastball now sits around 89 MPH and he’s a pitch-to-contact control artist.
While he’s now best suited for back-of-the-rotation work, there’s little question Greinke is still a major league caliber hurler. He hasn’t had an ERA above 4.16 in any of the last six seasons. He had a pair of injured list stints related to forearm discomfort last year but still managed to top 25 starts for the 14th consecutive 162-game season. On top of the value he could bring to younger pitchers in the clubhouse, he remains a solid innings eater for teams seeking to bolster their back end.
Kansas City could fit Greinke onto the roster even after bringing in Yarbrough and Lyles. Only Singer has firmly seized a rotation role among the team’s young starters. Yarbrough has struggled for the past couple seasons and could fairly easily move to long relief himself. The bigger question seems to be finances. The Royals presently project for a payroll in the $86MM range, per Roster Resource. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged them around $95MM to start last season, but K.C. general manager J.J. Picollo indicated at the outset of the offseason the club was dealing with budgetary limitations.
Greinke is one of the top starters who remains unsigned. Aside from Michael Wacha, no free agent starter who hasn’t agreed to terms is coming off a better 2022 campaign. Perhaps Greinke is willing to take an incentive-laden deal to return to K.C. — particularly given his strong track record of staying healthy and amassing plenty of innings — but Rosenthal’s report suggests it wouldn’t be a surprise if another club is willing to beat whatever guarantee the Royals put on the table.
1 year 15m
That’s not exactly incentive laden. That’s more than he’ll get WITH incentives.
More like 1yr $5m with $4-6m in incentives.
Stop nickel-and-dime-ing and pay your franchise icon, KC. He wants to come back and so do the fans. Quit drawing this out ffs before he changes his mind and retires elsewhere.
(Not in response to Yanks2)
Yeah, YBC, I could see their concern more if it was to be a multi-year deal. But for one year? And his last contract was only $13MM, so I doubt he’s looking for $20-something million this time around.
Nevertheless, he still took the ball 26 times last season, pitched 137 innings (300innings the past two seasons total), and had a 4.00FIP, which resulted in an ERA+ of 111. There’s definitely value there, especially for under $15MM, imho.
Plus nobody can prepare for him unless they have a 10-year old pitch to them for practice. The machines they have don’t slow down to 43MPH!
I have to imagine he’s worth nearly as much as he got last year plus incentives. 10 mil base salary and whatever bonuses you can give p pitchers to boost it to 15-17 mil
He still deserves a $15MM deal, although maybe $10MM guaranteed and $5MM in incentives. A 3.68 ERA in a 140 innings from a likely future HOFer is not a backend pitcher on the Royals. Yarbrough and Lyles are the backend pitchers. Both are bad. Greinke at worst remains solid. Trying to undercut Greinke’s contract when he remains solid and is a fan favorite who creates interest in the team is not a good look.
If only players were paid like CEOs, with most money coming from incentives, baseball would be so much better.
Maybe all players should be free agents from the day they sign, draft should be illegal so studs get paid what they deserve and not 700k.
Or the owners split money based off of wins…but that isnt how this works.
And don’t pay for injury/rehab time off, right?
Yes. I don’t see if this is sarcasm or genuine, but I agree regardless. They aren’t working and really don’t need to be paid when injured. They aren’t construction workers and don’t need that money to make ends meet. People get paid to work, not to waste away and do nothing. I do have a job and am an employee and not an employer. Still, many of us work from home if we get sick instead of collecting free pay. I know so many guys who got COVID and decided to work from home instead of taking COVID time off because they wanted to set a good impression and it felt wrong for them to not work. Players need to contribute or lose wages.
Thanks. This was dang near the stupidest thing I’ve ever read on the internet…and that is saying something
What was? If you were trying to reply to me, that didn’t quite go as expected.
I hope you get hurt at work and are denied disability. Bonus if the damage is permanent and you can’t work ever again.
Personal insults? Come on now. I know it’s the internet, but seriously?
Exactly. 26 starts is almost like a full season in today’s game. Hoping he signs a prove-it contract and a possible pay-cut is a bit insulting for what he means to the franchise and fan sentiment for a future HOF’er from KC.. Oh, and the approaching 3000 Ks. If they were close to the tax line, I would understand, but they’re not.
1 yr $2 mil, then $500 per pitch
Taken literally, this is 500*32*100 for a full season. That’s hardly anything. That seems too low.
You’re right. Let’s bump it up to $2000 per pitch
With incentives for licking fingers before the pitch and handling the rosin afterward
I imagine a lot of teams are, not just KC. Probably why he is still unsigned. Another guy who totally misjudged his worth in the market.
Look around at all the unsigned guys in mid January and that becomes clear.
“No pitcher within that group had a lower strikeout percentage than Greinke’s 12.5% rate, while his 7.3% striking strike rate is fourth from the bottom. Greinke’s fastball now sits around 89 MPH and he’s a pitch-to-contact control artist.”
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Which is why he said he signed with the Royals.
They have the biggest yard in MLB and at the time stressed defense.
If he doesn’t go back there, Mr. Greinke is ideally looking for a team that’s a contender, has a large OF and foul territory, and plays very good defense.
And he wants good money and very probably a no-trade to be a back-of-the-rotation pitcher.
Perhaps he signs with someone in-season.
I always wanted to see this guy in Cub pinstripes. But Chafin & Moore are “Moore” necessary.
I’ll be curious to see what Chafin finally signs for too. I really like him as a reliever and wonder why there doesn’t seem to be a lot of competition for him. He’s an asset to any ‘pen though, and Moore’s performance speaks for itself.
He’s gotta be asking top-dollar. Can’t blame him. He’s earned it. But to walk away from that very generous Tigers’ deal, is obvious gambling. Not sure what he’s asking for, maybe a multi-year deal worth $10M AAV?
Chafin surprisingly got much less that I thought he would last offseason. Maybe, he is trying to make it up. I guess two wrongs do make if right if it is the same team.
It’s got to be money related. Wouldn’t mind him him being added to the Yankee pen.
2.6 WAR as a pitcher— at market value that would be like $23.5M— even at a discount that shouldn’t be worth less than $10M guarantee w/incentives that could take it to $23.5M or something.
He’s worth what he’s worth, even at this stage of his career.
A team isn’t looking at deceptive new fangled stats. They are asking the apples on his fastball, does it have movement, does he get guys out, does he give up the long ball a lot, how many does he walk, those kinds of things. You know, real baseball stuff. Even strikeouts are more valued by some teams than others.
Uhuh. And he’s solid in those departments, otherwise his ERA would be hyper inflated, which it isn’t. This is Greinke, not some barely known prospect or inconsistent journeyman.
And Nelson Cruz just got a million per year.
A career ERA of 3.42 plus 2882 strikeouts… Possibly #3000 this year. Great career.
Yep, likely a HOF career when it’s done.
He has one of the best ERA+ seasons of all time. Texas was supposed to sign one of him or Hamilton in 2013. I’m glad they didn’t sign Hamilton for more than 17 million AAV, but this shows how Texas has only recently been a “big market team.” That contract would have been well worth it for Greinke, though, even with the opt-out.
no doubt HOFer.
Other sports have this type of pay. Fans are just so enamored with players to see underperforming ones lose out on salary with performance incentives. Baseball players are entitled millionaires trying to “punch up” at all those greedy billionaires trying to not lose money. How dare those evil billionaires be allowed to remain billionaires! Players should just get an “A for effort” and shouldn’t have to actually work and perform for money! I really don’t understand middle class tendencies to sympathize with millionaires and hate billionaires. Many of us own stocks and thus actually have more in common with those billionaire owners. I don’t get this site’s tendency to demonize owners, and fans should stop thinking in terms of either owners or players. You get a base pay of over 700k regardless of what you do, and I don’t get how high-performing athletes need this much money. Anything that can be said about owners can be said about the players. Companies do incentive-heavy pay with CEOs, and so should MLB owners. Sure the media and writers on all sites (including this one) would be outraged as usual, but that’s already the case whenever they try to do something smart and good for the game. These players even opposed reasonable changes to the game during the strike because they were so full of hate and stubborn that they couldn’t even put baseball above their own issues. There is absolutely no need for a guy with 330 million dollars in earnings plus whatever endorsements he gets to get more handouts. Make him work for it just like everyone else.
You seem to be a good capitalist…but don’t like what the market is paying for talent. The players make this money because a) they have talents that the rest of us don’t, and b) the money is there for them because the sport is awash in it. Supply and demand make this market–I went to a minor league game last year that was a ton of fun combined with a cheap ticket, but the quality of the play wasn’t there. And, let’s not kid ourselves, politicians fall over themselves handing out taxpayer financed goodies to owners. They do so at the expense of other services and resources that could have been used for their constituents. Let’s stop pretending that every flaw of baseball must be placed at the players feet. And let’s stop pretending that they are obligated to play for less because the market overvalues their talents. This i business–wealthy owners getting subsides from the public, wealthy players getting huge salaries., and both groups get those $ because we are willing to pay for it.
That is true, but the allocation of money shouldn’t be entirely guaranteed. Football contracts are focused more on incentives, and so should baseball contracts. I don’t get why stars who player 162 games shouldn’t get more than those who play 50. They can just reallocate it amongst the players. If 200 MM goes to player salary, why not pay those who actually contributed to wins? It’s definitely not out of ordinary. Another issue with capitalism here is that baseball hasn’t grown much and baseball inflation is significantly larger than other types of inflation. In a typical market, there are more than just 30 buyers and a max of 780 players (26*30 teams). Baseball allows one team to be stupid and ruin the market for everyone. A few teams shouldn’t have this much impact on the economics. Sure, free agents shouldn’t get the small market treatment, but their pay should be tied to the growth of baseball.
“ allocation of money shouldn’t be entirely guaranteed”
Yeah, I am okay with this, especially when someone underperforms his contract so badly it’s unquestionable (Hicks, Chris Davis immediately come to mind).
Now, *how* that happens in an MLB environment is something beyond my skill set. Nevertheless, I imagine if players were signed without guaranteed contracts even when they terribly underperform, it would incentivize so many teams to spend on talent. Why? Because if the player keeps performing it’s worth the contract, and if they don’t, it doesn’t t weigh down the team like a stone necklace in the bay.
But, there is also the flip side argument…if contracts no longer become guaranteed they will have to do something on the front end where the players are typically limited in pay (pre-arb & arb years) but perform their best.
It’s a really interesting conversation for sure. But if we are speaking about improving the game, that is certainly one way to incentivize it.
“Sure, free agents shouldn’t get the small market treatment, but their pay should be tied to the growth of baseball.” It is tied to the growth of baseball. Look at the rise in franchise values. Look at the enormous broadcast rights contracts. Look at the huge checks in the form of stadium subsidies, infrastructure and tax benefits. I have nothing against incentive contracts, but the players are not obligated to accept them and there are plenty of incidents in which those incentive targets were were exploited by ownership. As to one team ruining it, one team, no matter how much they spend, cannot buy every player. Conversely, no layer should be forced to lay for what a deliberately low-spending, possibly tanking team is willing to spend. Players have an obligation to give their best–not everyone does, and I hope that’s reflected in their next contract negotiation. Owners have an obligation as well–to act as good stewards of the advantages they’ve been given and to provide a quality product for the fans that buy the tickets and beers. If an owner doesn’t, politicians should think long and hard about reaching into the taxpayer’s product–and fellow owners should challenge revenue sharing that goes to those of their fellows who pocket the cash.
Mikemn: I know that wasn’t in direct response to me but there’s a bunch of valid points in your counter-argument as well. It was well-articulated.
Oops, you are right. Thanks, and thanks for the kind words.
Yeah an incentive contract sounds good, something like “if you try hard we’ll pay you more money.”
Greinke should top Jordan Lyles in terms of annual value. I agree with the poster who submitted 1 year / $10M plus incentives.
For sure, he should make more than Lyles. However, I think that says more about Lyles in particular being overpaid when guys like Taillon, Walker, Manea, Heaney, Eovaldi, and others get only slightly higher pays for actually being consistently good. Lyles seems like more of an outlier than Greinke here.
Social media is so interesting. Decent thread here…some nice commentary. And then, out of the blue, a flight of fanciful garbage posing as wisdom.
You call everything you disagree with garbage. You have literally no good comments. It’s all just cutting down on things you disagree with. State what you disagree with atleast. Psuedo-intellectuals are annoying.
; )
Lol, just spend money. These markets are not so small they cant field competitive rosters. Dont fall for it.
That would be quite a HoF speech…not
This will be his 20th season, isn’t that mind blowimg?
It is. Zack has been around so long that when he debuted the Royals were still in their Blue, BLACK, & White period. A look they’ve long since abandoned.
Yep. My mind went holy sht, it’s been 20 years?
I think the dude’s a hall of famer. And I’m not a fan of any of the teams he’s been on, in fact have often rooted against him. His career strikeout to walk ratio (and number of strikeouts) is crazy good.
Yep, I think he’s a lock for the Hall of Fame. i just pulled up Baseball References HoF tracker and it looks like he’s right in line with HoF numbers. He gets in first or second ballot IMO.
What are you looking at on Baseball Reference that tells you that? He’s wayyy short on black ink, border line on gray ink. and border line on Hall of Fame Standards. There’s only one category that has him as a likely HOFer. The three top pitchers he’s “similar” to are not in the HOF: Curt Schilling, Tim Hudson, and Kevin Brown. Schilling has a much better case than Greinke (he’s likely HOF in all categories but one).
Greinke may get in but it will not be a first or second ballot.
You’re looking at the average HOF numbers. That’s not a minimum for consideration. There are plenty of HOF members below those average numbers.
I didn’t say he won’t get in, I said he may get in but he is definitely not making it first or second ballot. He is a borderline candidate.
Name a starting pitcher from the modern era that are below the avg HOF numbers that were inducted on the first or second ballot. I’ll wait. It hasn’t happened.
Even Blyleven (14 years on the ballot) and Jack Morris (Veteran’s Committee) have higher ratings than Greinke does.
I know people don’t care much about wins for pitchers these days but they should pay him what he’s asking for since 8 of his seasons were with awful Royals teams that cost him a shot at 300 career wins
I wonder if it’ll be in his contract for certain people to not make eye contact with him? Maybe there will also be a stipulation that he doesn’t have to sign for any fans ever again also.
I don’t understand the hesitation in someone signing Greinke. He’s far more consistent than others that have already signed. He’s got a unique personality that his teammates love so I don’t see chemistry as a factor. Why wouldn’t a contender already have him in place?
They’re making Greinke accept an incentive laden deal when he had a 2.6 WAR season last year, but they gave Jordan Lyles a 2/$17 deal…what a joke. Jordan Lyles is terrible.
Grienke is worth $10 mil to be a 9-12 out starter for the Twins.
I’ve long thought that all MLB contracts should be incentive laden. Maybe 50/50 split on the total value of the contract – half guaranteed and half incentivized. That would insure maximum effort on the player’s part to receive the maximum payout. The player still gets paid the guaranteed amount if injured or unproductive and it would also serve to protect owners from their own stupidity. (See Mike Moustakas 4 year/$64m deal with the inept Reds management team.)
Is Grienke a bad clubhouse guy? I seem to recall reading that he wasn’t a hit with his teammates. That could be way off, or just from when he was much younger.
I understand his early years he was a challenge for teammates & the opposition didn’t care for him. The Athletic did a story on him recently & his teammates love him. I don’t have the link.
Thanks. Wondering if he’d be worth a shot for the Pads, but not at the risk of damaging a chemistry that seems pretty solid just now. Assuming Tatis gets his head screwed on right.
Nickel and Diming a face of your franchise for many years makes ur franchise look bad as a whole. He was still solid last year and probably will be again this year if he doesn’t break a hip lol..pay the man!
I love snooping through Baseball Reference… There was a pitcher/1B in the negro leagues from 1920 to 1931, Ed Rile… he led the league in ERA one year and led the league in OBP another year. 1927 he had 11 wins and 11 home runs. A lifetime .317 hitter… the guy was the original Ohtani.
Come on Royals you can afford a 1-year 11-15 million dollars deal for a guy that wants to finish out his career where he started, and is a future Hall of Fame pitcher.
Royals could offer $1 million plus $1 billion if Royals win the World Series.