Earlier in the offseason, it was reported that Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers was a name discussed in trade talks with the Marlins centering around Miami’s cadre of controllable starting pitchers. The interest from both parties was understandable. The Marlins, deep in both starting pitching prospects and big league starters, are light on position player depth and in dire need of augmentation to the lineup. The Rockies, conversely, have struggled to develop pitching talent but have infield depth both in terms of current big leaguers and MLB-ready prospects. Pitching is a perennial Achilles heel for the Rockies. A trade seems sensible enough on paper.
However, a deal hasn’t come together. Rodgers remains in Denver, and the Marlins continue to discuss their stockpile of arms with teams throughout the league. Perhaps the two parties don’t see eye-to-eye on Rodgers’ value. Perhaps they disagree on the value of Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers.
The lack of an agreement between the two parties doesn’t mean that there’s no sense in a trade of Rodgers. While it’s true that the Rockies needn’t feel any urgency to trade the former No. 3 overall pick, who has three years of club control remaining, that need for pitching still persists. And, at least on paper, Colorado is positioned to withstand the loss of Rodgers.
Beyond the fact that Ryan McMahon can handle third base or second base, the Rockies have prospect Ezequiel Tovar effectively ready for a Major League look. Assuming Tovar handles shortstop and McMahon is comfortable playing either third or second base, the free-agent market offers palatable replacement options if Rodgers were to be subtracted from the infield. Brian Anderson and Josh Harrison are just two free agents who could help fill a short-term void while the Rockies await the development of prospects like Warming Bernabel and Adael Amador, who could be MLB-ready by 2024 or 2025.
The simple fact of the matter is that Colorado isn’t likely to contend in 2023 — not with a deep Padres club and a perennial (albeit somewhat diminished) playoff threat in the Dodgers lurking atop the division. The Giants haven’t necessarily made the type of waves that’ll make them a division contender, but they’re probably a better club now than at the end of the 2022 season after signing Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers (while also losing several key pieces — none bigger than Carlos Rodon). The D-backs are more of a long shot to contend, but they’ve added some veteran help and will graduate no fewer than three high-end prospects to the Majors in 2023 (Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt).
Bottom line: a contending season for the Rockies is almost impossible to imagine. Rockies fans and certainly their front office/ownership may disagree, but it’s tough to see how the additions of Pierce Johnson and Brent Suter, and the re-signing of Jose Urena dramatically alter the fortunes of a team that finished 68-94 in 2022.
That grim reality doesn’t mean the Rockies should simply sell Rodgers and others with three or fewer years of club control for the highest offer, but Rodgers specifically is in a position where he could perhaps fetch considerable value. The free-agent market this winter featured four star-caliber shortstops, but one of the three (Xander Bogaerts) went to a club (the Padres) that didn’t even have a clear need for a shortstop. Carlos Correa took a bizarre, winding road back to Minneapolis. That signing, plus the Twins’ acquisition of Kyle Farmer, took two viable shortstop options for interested parties and placed them on the same roster. Meanwhile, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson wound up in Philadelphia and Chicago (the north side), respectively. That sequence of events left several clubs in need of middle infield depth standing empty-handed.
Rodgers, 26, isn’t Correa, Bogaerts, Turner or Swanson — or at least he hasn’t been yet. He’s a former No. 3 overall pick and was once one of the sport’s top 15 overall prospects according to multiple outlets, but his performance to this point hasn’t quite justified that hype. Still, he’s in his prime and has three years of control, defensive aptitude at both middle-infield positions and a strong batted-ball profile that could be a portent for further success.
Over the past two seasons, Rodgers has turned in a combined .274/.326/.434 batting line with 28 homers, 51 doubles and six triples in 996 trips to the plate. The fact that he plays his home games at Coors Field means that park- and league-adjusted metrics like wRC+ weight that offensive performance at five percent below league average. Rodgers, indeed, has struggled on the road in his career, but we’ve seen plenty of examples of Rockies players with pronounced home-road splits leaving Denver and finding success elsewhere. There have been myriad studies performed about the manner in which playing home games at altitude can impact performance on the road, but moving out of an at-altitude home field environment can counteract some of those struggles. Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu and others have left the Rockies and gone on to fare well in other cities.
Beyond a generally solid string of results in Colorado, Rodgers possesses an intriguing batted-ball profile. Statcast ranks him well above average in terms of hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected batting average, chase rate and whiff rate. Rodgers doesn’t draw walks in droves, but he also has plus bat-to-ball skills (17.6% strikeout rate), rarely chases off the plate and hits the ball pretty hard (90 mph average exit velo, 45.9% hard-hit rate). It’s fair to wonder whether there’s another offensive gear to be unlocked.
Defensively, Rodgers grades anywhere from above-average to elite. He’s spent the bulk of his big league career at second base, but that’s largely been in deference to Trevor Story. Rodgers posted a mammoth 22 Defensive Runs Saved and 8.0 Ultimate Zone Rating at second base in 2022, and while Statcast’s Outs Above Average took a more measured view, that metric still rated him as three outs better than a standard second baseman. In 220 innings at shortstop, he’s posted decent marks in DRS (1), UZR (1.7) and OAA (-1).
Whether other club view Rodgers as a potential shortstop who’s been blocked at his position or as the high-end second base defender he was in 2022, he has clear value. Rodgers has proven capable of hitting for a solid average and thus delivering a quality OBP (even in spite of pedestrian walk rates). He’s shown some power, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate suggest there could be more in the tank. He agreed to a $2.7MM salary earlier today — in part, a reflection of injuries that have slowed his accumulation of counting stats. And, he’s controllable through the 2025 season.
All in all, it’s a nice package that other teams surely covet. It’s understandable that the Rockies would be reluctant to part with Rodgers, particularly if they believe it’s possible he’ll take another step forward in 2023. General manager Bill Schmidt was the team’s scouting director when Rodgers was drafted, after all, so it’d be no surprise to hear that Schmidt believed Rodgers hadn’t yet reached his peak.
At the same time, the Rockies are in a tough spot with regard to their pitching staff. German Marquez is entering the final guaranteed season of his contract and just turned in a career-worst showing in 2022. Kyle Freeland responded to his surprising contract extension with 174 2/3 innings of 4.53 ERA ball. Antonio Senzatela will miss the beginning of the season following a ligament tear in his knee, and he’d struggled in the wake of his own extension even prior to that injury. The third, fourth and fifth spots in the Rockies’ rotation are likely to be held down by the aforementioned journeyman Urena, Austin Gomber (5.56 ERA in 124 2/3 innings in 2022) and Ryan Feltner (5.83 ERA in 97 1/3 innings). Pitching reinforcements from the farm don’t appear to be on the horizon.
That said, there are still plenty of teams with middle-infield needs and young pitching to dangle. The Red Sox are one club that comes to mind, but each of the White Sox, Angels, Braves and Orioles could use a second baseman and/or shortstop. Most of those clubs have interesting young pitching to offer in exchange, whether the Rox prefer an immediate rotation option or someone who could join the staff in 2024, when top prospects like Zac Veen, Drew Romo and the previously mentioned Tovar have a better chance at contributing.
Rockies fans and those who’ve followed the team in recent years know that the club doesn’t exactly have a reputation for selling players at peak value (or selling at all). The Rox famously held onto both Story and Jon Gray rather than cashing them in for prospects in their walk years. Gray was lost for nothing after the team declined to make a qualifying offer. Colorado declined to trade either Daniel Bard or C.J. Cron when both were rentals at recent deadlines, instead opting to extend both players. Owner Dick Monfort is fatally optimistic about his club’s chances of winning, and while it’s admirable to continually make win-now moves in the face of long-shot (at best) odds in the division, logically there should come a point where alternate paths need to be considered.
Based on their history, the Rockies probably aren’t going to be particularly amenable to Rodgers offers. Interested teams would need to pay a steep price to pry him away, and doing so would be a bet on his underlying batted-ball profile, his defensive skills and his knack for contact to manifest in a new level of performance. There’s certainly risk, but given the dearth of middle-infield options in free agency and elsewhere on the trade market, there are few other places for teams needing middle infield help to look. The Rockies aren’t going to contend in 2023, and three years of Rodgers could bring them some direly needed young pitching. Someone should make them an offer that even a typically conservative front office/ownership group would have a hard time refusing.
cardsfanboy
No
CluHaywood
I read that entire thing, and this was exactly my response as well. Brendan Rodgers is a 26 year old who has spent about 6 years in the minors. There is literally nothing exciting about him or his style of play that would justify anything more than prospects in the 20-30 range for most clubs, 15-30 for clubs with weaker farms. Maybe you swap another guy a bit younger who hasn’t found success yet at the majors who was also hyped, but that’s about it. When you are suggesting Josh Harrison as a viable stop gap to replace Rodgers, that tells you all you need to know. There is no conceivable chance that anyone is giving up anything of any significant value for Brendan Rodgers, and if they are, they are getting fleeced.
Bright Side
I’ll trade Gleyber Torres for Rodgers in a NY minute.
Goku the All Knowing
Brendan Rodgers for a bag of pucks .. wrong sport.. oh well, we’ll still take the pucks
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
This isn’t desperate, is it?
implant
Adell for Rodgers. Done!
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
This is a very very strange title for an article. You would think an intern wrote it, but it’s one of the few guys I recognize from the last 12-13 years on this site.
i like al conin
I like it. It caught my attention
i like al conin
They’re not going to eat more money after the Arenado disaster.
stymeedone
As a Detroit Fan, I’d be happy to swap Baez for him.
King Floch
If I was a Detroit fan, I’d be happy to swap Baez’s contract for a 27 year old that has never played above AA.
BStrowman
Lol they could get a bag of balls for Baez and be happy.
This one belongs to the Reds
It’s not like anyone didn’t see it coming after Baez’s act in Chicago either.
That is, anyone but Detroit apparently.
sergefunction
Baez was not really an overall Detroit fail, but You can talk about Al Avila that way all day. The man had the Typhoid Mary Touch.
Al Avila is the Matt Millen of Al Avilas.
sergefunction
When the Rockies signed Kris Bryant to that crazy deal, given their recent moves with veterans and apparent direction, any semblance of them making any sense whatsoever anytime about anything was locked in the humidor forever.
They can keep their infielders, outfielders, upfielders, downfielders. All are infected with Rockies. No thanks to any of them.
In a few decades I’ll reconsider.
Old York
Dear Colorado Rockies,
Do you have any good infield players?
Love from…
No one.
Logistics Guy
If I was a MLB club I be call the Rockies about Kris Bryant. Not any one else.
jakec77
Kris Bryant is probably overpaid at this point. I think he’s got 6 years/ $165 left- I have a hard time believing he would get that much if he was a free agent.
CarverAndrews
Rockies 3B prospect Warming Bernabal – they need to convert him to relief pitcher.
“Warming up in the pen…
…and Who’s on first.”
Love the critiques about the articles from folks that can’t write a coherent paragraph. MLBTR is clearly adding more content which should be appreciated. And, unlike major journals they don’t have copy editors and do most of this on the fly.
This is also a very unusual year in that all of the heavy lifting and drama was about 95% completed before Xmas and they are working to add depth articles and greater detail in how things might work. Since they don’t have tons of free agent shuffling left to handle it makes it more difficult to keep everyone on the edge of their seat when Michael Wacha is about the most exciting FA left on the shelf. Teams have even picked over quite a few of the minor league invitation deals at an earlier time this year. So they are digging deeper, and getting the chance to experiment with more speculative work and detailed research. I appreciate and respect the effort, given that it is still over 5 weeks until spring training starts and I need my daily baseball fix.
i like al conin
Very well said
Goku the All Knowing
Carlos Gonzalez was not good after he left the Rockies.
Backdraft
The Rockies have had hitters do well elsewhere despite the contrary fan narrative and assertions.
Goku the All Knowing
name 1
IronBallsMcGinty
If anything, Warming Bernabel is a top prospect name.
King Floch
The Orioles don’t need a 2B/SS, we have an impending logjam there with Mateo, Urias, Frazier, and Vavra already on the big league roster (assuming Henderson is the everyday 3B) and Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby at AAA.
AHH-Rox
Article could have mentioned Elehuris Montero as the likely 3B if they move McMahon over to 2B. Looked like he had potential to be a pretty good hitter in his limited MLB action last season. Probably not great 3B defense, but at least for this season he is blocked at 1B by Cron and Toglia and at DH by Blackmon and Cron.
I think Montero will end up being the only player from the Arenado trade who amounts to anything for the Rockies.
tmetz1023
Tend to agree
Backdraft
Goober looked good for a while. Last year however was ugly.
baseballteam
Rockies: “we’ll send you a scraggly dude who can only hit at Coors and you send us a good player ok?” (Bloom): “yes please!”
Backdraft
Ignorance.
mydogcrowder
No, call the indians
Hagatha Crusty
I liked this article but is it fair to say that Carlos Gonzalez found success after leaving Denver?
AHH-Rox
Good point. CarGo was on the decline his last couple of years in Denver and played just one season after leaving, with poor results.
Arenado could have been included in that list instead.
CluHaywood
Yea he petered out really fast. This article had all the trappings a a Rox fan boy. It comes off horribly whiny and desperate.
tmetz1023
Rays are another team other than the Marlins that I could see make a competitive offer in a win now type move. I would say White Sox, but they really need a left handed bat and are probably content with their in-house options at 2B like Sosa.
Bold prediction, Bauer to White Sox at some point this year. They don’t seem to want left handed SP and IMO Koepech may be destined for a high leverage role, especially due to Hendricks situation (which would pair nicely as a dominant late-inning R/L combo when Crochet returns).
Dorothy_Mantooth
Boston is the perfect fit for Rodgers. With Story going down and Xander off to San Diego, they have openings at both SS and 2B right now. So long as it wouldn’t cost Boston Bryan Mata, Marcelo Mayer, Miguel Bleis or Cedanne Rafaela, I’d be really excited to see Boston make a trade here. His defense alone is worth the gamble and you have to think there is more offensive upside to Rodgers than he’s shown to date. Perhaps an offer headlined by Brandon Walter (LHP) would interest Colorado in making a deal.
baseballteam
Rodgers hit 10 HRS at Coors, 3 away. Batted .313 at Coors, .218 away. Which imbecile will trade for that?
Backdraft
Most Rockies hitters are like this yet have done well elsewhere. Research the “why” and learn instead of “acting” smart.
chaudk
A GM that knows stuff might have traded Ward, Politi, and Cannon for this guy. Yeah, it would have been viewed as an amazing haul in CO’s favor. But, instead the RS lost all 3 of those guys for nothing in the Rule 5 draft, 3 of their top 50 prospects…
baseballteam
Truly that RS Rule 5 lapse was egregious
R.D.
If you gave me 10 guesses as to what a warming bernabel is I wouldn’t have said a name
bpskelly
“Dick Monfort is fatally optimistic”
Understatement of the century. He’s delusional.
Should sell or at least let his baseball guys do their jobs. His micromanaging has killed this franchise. He’s got family members who need to tell him that. And if that doesn’t work, the Rockies are screwed.
Beardedface Killah
Get him Red Sox!!!
Beardedface Killah
Why?
isleepnot
They may not return your call.
soxfan1
Both Rodgers and McMahon have awful home/away splits, I don’t think they have the same value outside of Coors.
Backdraft
Yet other teams sign or trade for Rockies hitters. Maybe your confidence is ignorance.
soxfan1
Can you give me one hitter with similar splits that has thrived since leaving? Arenado was a slugger no matter where he was, so was DJ. You don’t have a leg to stand on here guy.
Bright Side
McMahon should be on the Yankees radar.
Chris Delgado
Carlos Gonzalez never had any success outside of Colorado
The Saber-toothed Superfife
ERod would do well in Colo.
Veen would be nice for ERod+ relief
dsett75
Detroit should go after McMahon for 3B, imho. They’re asking too much for Rodgers apparently. Both players mentioned have accomplished nothing in Colorado and aren’t even putting up the gaudy numbers there, but I’d throw em an arm or two. Since Detroit is in about the same position as the Marlins.
BenBenBen
Why oh why do you write like this, Steve Adams:
“The Rockies, conversely, have struggled to develop pitching talent but have infield depth both in terms of current big leaguers and MLB-ready prospects.”
When you can write it like this:
“Conversely, the Rockies have struggled to develop pitching talent but have infield depth both in terms of current big leaguers and MLB-ready prospects.”
So much smoother. Similarly:
“Rodgers, indeed, has struggled on the road in his career, but we’ve seen plenty of examples of Rockies players with pronounced home-road splits leaving Denver and finding success elsewhere.”
Can be:
“Indeed, Rodgers has struggled on the road in his career, but we’ve seen plenty of examples of Rockies players with pronounced home-road splits leaving Denver and finding success elsewhere.”
You CAN start sentences with words like indeed and conversely.
“And, at least on paper, Colorado is positioned to withstand the loss of Rodgers.”
If you’re going to start a sentence with and, don’t then immediately interrupt yourself right away.
“And Colorado is positioned to withstand the loss of Rodgers, at least on paper.”
Backdraft
Fans make me laugh sometimes. Rodgers can be very good but he tends to be streaky. His defense got better and there is some pop in that bat. He can be a reliable hitter. He does have to make adjustments sooner. But this notion that he’s only worth a middling prospect or two is arrogance and stupidity. Some fans believe every top 10, top 15 prospect is going to be a star. Most bust or become average. A small number become stars or solid good. Rodgers isn’t worth elite prospect compensation but top 10 prospect compensation, absolutely.