The Red Sox entered the offseason hopeful of re-signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Rafael Devers, locking that pair of dynamic hitters into the heart of the order for the foreseeable future. Instead, Bogaerts signed an 11-year deal with the Padres, and talks with Devers have yet to bear fruit. Devers did agree to a one-year contract with for the upcoming 2023 season yesterday, locking in his salary at $17.5MM, but he was already under club control and the newly agreed-upon pact doesn’t do much to move the needle in long-term talks.
Both Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com report today that talks on a long-term deal have been “steady” in the past few weeks, though. As Cotillo points out, that wasn’t true early in the offseason. Still, the parties have been known to be facing a substantial gap. Devers has reportedly been searching for a deal north of $300MM, and given his age (26) and proximity to free agency (next offseason), that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.
If anything, the current offseason’s rash of mega-deals for in-their-prime stars has likely only further hardened Devers’ stance; he doesn’t have the defensive value of players like Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or even Bogaerts, but Devers will be a younger free agent than anyone who agreed to a major contract this winter. Devers will play all of the 2024 season (his first free-agent year) at 27. Turner (30 in June), Bogaerts (already 30) and Correa (who turned 28 in September) are all older, as was Aaron Judge, who inked a nine-year, $360MM contract entering his age-31 season.
Devers, of course, is one of the American League’s best hitters — evidenced by a .292/.352/.532 slash over the past four seasons. He’s twice topped 30 home runs, including a 38-homer campaign in 2021, and was on a roughly 30-homer pace in the shortened 2020 season as well. The primary knock on Devers has been his defensive prowess, or lack thereof, which has prompted some to wonder when a move to first base might become necessary.
The Sox, however, hope to have their first baseman of the future on the cusp of MLB readiness in the form of top prospect Triston Casas. The soon-to-be 23-year-old slugger debuted with a .197/.358/.408 batting line in 95 plate appearances last year, and while the low batting average was obviously discouraging, it came in a small sample. Casas also raked at a .273/.382/.481 clip in Triple-A Worcester over a larger sample of 317 plate appearances.
Casas has come up in trade rumblings recently, thanks to a report from the Miami Herald that the Marlins have inquired about the former first-round pick and Miami-area native in talks involving the Marlins’ stock of young pitchers. However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe highlights the many reasons that a trade of Casas is decidedly unlikely. As Speier notes, the team’s belief in Casas helped to temper interest in Freddie Freeman during his free agency and also contributed to the Red Sox’ decision to release Eric Hosmer.
Speier writes that the Red Sox are indeed intrigued by adding to the top half of their rotation — as most teams are — but perhaps not at the expense of Casas. The Sox appear willing to move pitchers from their big league roster, per the report, “potentially” even including right-hander Tanner Houck. To be clear, there’s no indication that Houck has been discussed extensively (or at all) with the Marlins or another club, nor is there any suggestion that the Red Sox are outright shopping the 24-year-old righty.
Still, Houck would be an interesting name for other clubs to look into, given that he’s controllable for another five seasons and has pitched to a sharp 3.02 ERA (2.95 FIP) in his first 146 MLB innings. The Sox surely value Houck and would likely only part with him in exchange for a meaningful (and controllable) upgrade elsewhere on the pitching staff or in the lineup. Dealing Houck while simultaneously looking to bring in rotation help is perhaps counterintuitive, but despite rising through the system as a starter, Houck has worked out of the bullpen more than the rotation in the Majors — including making 28 of his 32 appearances in 2022 as a reliever.
If the Sox view Houck primarily as a reliever — GM Brian O’Halloran was somewhat noncommittal on Houck’s 2023 role back in November — there’s some sense in being willing to at least listen to offers. Boston has, after all, added to its bullpen with offseason additions of Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez but has been less active with regard to the rotation, where Corey Kluber is the lone addition to date. Again, none of this is to say Houck is readily available, but the mere possibility of the team entertaining offers is at least of some note.
Turning to a separate matter entirely, the Sox formally announced their coaching staff for the upcoming season earlier this morning. There are no surprises among the names included. Returning to manager Alex Cora’s staff will be pitching coach Dave Bush, hitting coach Peter Fatse, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coaches Ben Rosenthal and Luis Ortiz, third base/infield coach Carlos Febles, game-planning/catching coach Jason Varitek, and field coordinator Andy Fox. As reported earlier in the offseason, Ramon Vazquez is the team’s new bench coach, while Kyle Hudson has been hired away from the Guardians as the new first base/outfield coach.
A whole lot of conjecture going on here.
MLBC.
You know when the last time we heard about ‘steady’ talks was? When Bloom blew the deal with Bogey right before he went to SD.
So, a prognosis of ‘steady’ talks from this front office if worth as much as a roll of used TP.
We get it, you’re sad.
LET HOUCK COOK
I know injuries are a concern with Houck, but I don’t know why they don’t just let him start. Yeah, he can only go 5 innings most nights, but those 5 innings have been absolutely elite when he’s been given the chance
having Houck only go five innings would tax the bullpen and that’s assuming he would actually make it five innings most starts. Houck’s best role is in the pen in a peak Josh Hader type role.
I would love to have Jansen, Houck and Whitlock as my late inning guys. I realize others were signed but the team needs bullpen depth and if TH and GW were in the pen, they’d have as good a pen as there is.
This is an outdated mindset. Plenty of productive starters only average around 5 innings a start
Plenty of productive starters? that’s stretching it quite a bit. The bigger issue is how bad Houck is the third time through the lineup, and his inability to develop a third pitch.
Yes, because not everyone can consistently go 7 innings plus, like top of the rotation pitchers do, even if they’re also good pitchers, so it’s nothing to be ashamed of at all.
But most productive pitchers can at least make it more than 2 times through the lineup and have more than two pitches.
That’s true
What do starting pitchers average in today’s game…5.2 per start?
I would think the best bet for he and Whitlock is the pen as they are both recovering from injury. Build them up for next year, but limit innings this year.
I say stretch him out as a starter. Christian Javier has shown that you can be successful as essentially a two pitch pitcher. I’m not sure how the spin rates on fastballs compare but Houck’s slider is nasty. They improved the bullpen this off-season it could be good it can’t hurt to see what Houck has as a starter. If he can improve his splitter somewhat he could become a three pitch pitcher and ther are plenty of good starters with just three pitches.
Bruin: the problem with this logic in comparing Javier to Houck is that Houck at no level and at no point has shown the ability to be an elite starter during his career. To quote the ” great” Tim McCarver “As good as his numbers are the first two times through are as bad as they are the third.” He really can’t go more than twice through the lineup.
Acell yea I here you but that seems to be most starters nowadays there is value in having a guy who can get through a lineup two times as a starter. I just think if he develops that split fingered pitch he can go deeper and be much more effective against lefties. I don’t watch the Astros much but I seem to remember they had they same concerns about Javier until this year when he blossomed into a TOR arm with essentially two pitches. I don’t think it can really hurt this year to stretch Houck and let him go a little deeper. This team really isn’t a playoff team on paper so let’s see what the kid has he might surprise. I sure hope he is working on that splitter this off-season.
good points Bruins it’s just that at this point he’s had plenty of time to develop a third pitch. and I’m pretty sure Javier is younger than Houck. I hope he can be a starter but if not he could still be an elite reliever
They are less then a year apart in age Javier was kind a late bloomer.
my mistake. I thought he was younger by a few years.
With Jansen as the closer, Houck would be a great 8th inning guy. coming off surgery, his value might be diminished somewhat. Hang onto him and don’t sell low. They need all the live arms they can get, and he’s controllable.
If Devers is really only asking for a deal in the vicinity of $300M, then it needs to get done yesterday. The market is only going to get more inflated, and with his age and offensive prowess, I actually have more confidence is his ability to be a useful player through the backend of a 10 or 12-year contract than someone like Bogaerts or Correa who derive most of their value from playing shortstop.
The Red Sox front office deserves little faith, but I do think skipping arbitration and the talks being “steady” makes the Devers situation more optimistic than Mookie or Xander’s. Hopefully they surprise us – I wouldn’t feel as bad about this offseason if they do
So, all those $300 million dollar deals that have gone down basically were for “complete” ballplayers…..namely guys who had value both offensively and defensively……do you really think Devers fits on the defensive side……they may in fact have to pay those kind of dollars, but will do so grudgingly based on his excel in the field…..after all we hear from Beantown is how they don’t really don’t see his defense playing at 3rd, but he may sooner than later either land at 1B or DH on a regular basis….
Makes you think about the possibility of doing that now that Miami seems to covet Casas while being open to trade back young, controllable arms to bolster the future rotation…….maybe Bloom isn’t as crazy as all you Boston fans think…….
I completely disagree. Devers is about as bad at playing third base as Xander is at playing shortstop, and Xander just got that megadeal. Plus, Devers will only be 27 in the first year of a new contract. I’d have more faith in him being acceptably bad at third for 5 years than I would in Xander for the same amount a time, and I think Devers’ bat plays more when you do eventually have to move him to 1B/DH/LF than Xander’s will
Xander and Devers are different kinds of bad defensively. Xander isn’t liked by statcast and other defensive metrics because of his lack of range. Xander is very sure handed has a strong arm makes all the routine plays doesn’t make a lot of errors, in short, he’s dependable at short. Xander will be if it from having a tremendous defensive third baseman with huge range and essentially a second baseman with big range next to him in San Diego.
Rafael Devers, on the other hand, is an adventure at third. I cringe a little every time a ball is hit to him. He seems to have good range but simply makes too many mental errors at third. I have hoped he would grow out of them but he has not yet. I think Devers will benefit from a full season of Casas at first who is good at picking and a big target but I can’t see Devers ever being a dependable defensive third baseman at this point. I hope I’m wrong and he suddenly matures as a defensive third baseman but at this point I doubt it. In short Devers is much less dependent at third then Xander is at short.
I disagree that they’re different. A missed play is a missed play, whether you get to the ball and botch it or just miss it entirely.
Xander also does not have a strong arm: he averages 82.1 mph, which is substantially below the bench mark for shortstops. He also had 10 errors last year compared to Devers’ 14. The difference between them isn’t that significant
If you have a below average defender, the position can be 3B as long as you make up for it with offense. Miggy played 3B and won 2 MVP’s. If you have a weak defensive 2B or SS it is noticed more. A bad defensive 1B is disastrous.
They have Casas who should be the 1B for a while and Mayer who will come up as a shortstop in a few years. They will have a very solid infield for the future.
I agree to a large extent, but the article only refers to “north of $300M”. If he wants $300M/12, then the RS would be stupid to not extend him. I’m not even a real Devers fan, but that is a very affordable amount. And with Bogaerts gone, it’s not like we need a position available for him to slot into.
OTOH, the north of $300M could be $375M. None of will know the exact number.
@ roiste, I’d like to see them extend Devers as well. How can they do that, and stay south of the CBT penalties?
I don’t think $300M/12 makes a difference for CBT at this point (though I don’t know why places like Cots has so much trouble getting Excel schedules to foot). But if they went over by just a couple of million, they could agree to a deal, but not sign it until after opening day.
something like that would have to happen in order to push it across the finish line
Extend him and start the deal in 2024.
Easy – don’t. Henry can afford it, and if we’re gonna go over for a crappy year like last year we should be able to do it to keep a homegrown start. Most of the contracts we’ve added this offseason will be done in a couple years anyways
It’s important to remember that Devers already cost 17.5 towards the lux number so an asset value of just over 30 million wouldn’t put them past the number this year. Waiting to hear details but maybe he gets 17.5 this year and extended for 11/332 starting next year either way the aren’t over the lux tax.
Trade high on Schreiber and Rafaela for a number one or two starter and then extend Devers.
probably going to take a lot more than that to get a number 1 or number 2 starter
That might get you a number 4.
As a teammate of houck in the past. Dude is the nastiest sinker/ slider combo I’ve ever seen. Arrogant enough to close in the big leagues. Direct comp to papelbon
agreed. I’d love to see him in the closers role eventually or at a the very least in high leverage bullpen innings
Papelbon was exactly the guy I was thinking of that Houck reminds me of.
30 millions a year for poor defense is to much hé’s not Machado or Arenado!! Keep Casas , trade Devers/ Sale plus 20 millions to the Dodgers for Cartaya and Miguel Vargas
You must be a Dodgers fan
Trading Devers ala Betts will be the game by mid July. Sale will pitch two innings in
Spring Training and a new injury will appear.
History doesn’t make it look like Devers is there for the long haul. The way the big boys are shoveling out the money, he probably doesn’t want to miss free agency anyway.
The question is whether he is dealt by the deadline or they let him walk.
Devers to Dbacks
Walston, Fletcher, Rojas, and Henry to Redsox
It’s possible this was a one off year for crazy free agent deals. If the Mets ultimately sign Correa then they will be set at third. I think Devers is going to get paid but I see no way gets 400 million next off season and I think the free agent signings will cool somewhat next year with the one notable exception of Ohtani there will be a bidding war for him if he gets to free agency.
Good article… just wanted go point out though. Houck is 26 (turning 27 halfway through next season) which is a BIG difference than 24 haha, at least in a baseball sense!
Everyone seems to be assuming that the FA market in 2023 will be as insane as it was in 2022. A recession is on the horizon and the impending bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group will drastically affect Regional Sports Networks. The major TV networks are bleeding money. At some point economic rationality will assert itself.
When Betts was traded ; my reasoning was well Betts for 300 or you can lock up bogie/ Devers/Benny for maybe a little more at that time…( like petey and youk) back in the day… Good to see I wasn’t being unreasonable…. Only the front office…. But hey they did give a extension to Barnes
And Barnes got it based off one season. He’s not even that good
Yup.. not even sure it was a full year as after all star break( and I believe a couple of outings before break) he imploded like I’ve never seen before… I cringed even time they brought him in vs Yankees!!!
But Devers is also looking for $300 million and Bogaerts got close to that himself.
No I got that but In 2020 they should have offered those 3 extensions like back in the day when they locked up Petey and Youk… letting thing’s play out like they did… well they gambled and lost big time on two of those 3 for sure… not positive on numbers but similar to what Astros did and to some extent what rays did with wander …
No Direction
I would hate to see them move Houck, especially as it would be on the low…. Someone/ ANYONE please tell me the last time the Redsox had a home grown pitcher they could get excited about not named Lester??? Hell even Pap…. ( crickets………………)
Did I just see Devers signing!!!! Yeahhhhhhh
Trade Joely for a couple of bats and a box of Twinkies.
Wow this did not age well. Still enjoyed the article Steve. It’s like the commentator’s curse