Outfielder Jurickson Profar is one of the top free agents that still remains unsigned and he is drawing plenty of interest around the league. He’s already been connected to the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox at various points throughout the winter and it seems there are a few more teams involved. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the teams interested in Bryan Reynolds are keeping tabs on Profar, a group which includes the Marlins and Rangers.
Reynolds has been consistently in trade rumors for quite some time, which is fairly logical given that he’s emerged as a very good player on a rebuilding Pirates team. He won’t be a free agent until after 2025 and the team could find itself back in contention in that time, but there would also be sense in exchanging his final years of control for younger players that can continue to help the club beyond that timeframe. The Bucs could prolong their relationship with Reynolds by extending him, but recent reporting indicates the sides have been about $50MM apart in their discussions, suggesting a deal isn’t likely to get done anytime soon.
Various teams have tried to free Reynolds from Pittsburgh’s clutches over the past year or two and the player himself has even asked for a trade, but all reports have indicated that the Bucs have been sticking to a high asking price in any trade talks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently reported that they are looking for a return analogous to what the Nationals got in the Juan Soto deal. Given the difficulty in working something out with the Pittsburgh front office, it’s understandable that clubs would look to alternatives like Profar.
There are some similarities between the two players as both are switch-hitting outfielders. They’re actually not terribly far apart in age, despite Profar debuting all the way back in 2012. He was only 19 years old then and is now about to turn 30 next month. Reynolds is a couple of years younger, turning 28 in just over a week.
They are also both outfielders, though Reynolds has decidedly more value on defense given that he’s a passable center fielder. Teams will likely have varying views over exactly how passable he is there, since the advanced defensive metrics are split on how to grade his work up the middle. He’s accrued 4 Outs Above Average in his career at that spot but has -16 Defensive Runs Saved and a -7.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Profar, meanwhile, began his career as an infielder but has gradually spent more and more time in the outfield. Since 2019, he’s made brief appearances at second and first base but hasn’t appeared at shortstop or third base. Last year, the Padres kept him exclusively in left field. He did spend 156 2/3 innings in center field over 2020 and 2021 but wasn’t graded well there and is likely considered a corner outfielder by most clubs.
At the plate, Reynolds and Profar have admirable qualities, but in different ways. Both players are good at getting on base, with Reynolds posting a .345 OBP last year and .361 mark for his career. Profar is slightly behind in that regard, with a .331 OBP in 2022 and .322 overall. Reynolds is also ahead in the power department, hitting 27 home runs last year and 74 in his career thus far. Profar hit 15 last year and has only 78 in his career, despite more than 1,000 extra plate appearances compared to Reynolds. Profar’s work was enough for a 110 wRC+ last year, 10% better than league average, but behind the 125 that Reynolds managed.
There’s little doubting that Reynolds is a more enticing option than Profar but the latter option will cost only money, allowing the acquiring club to hang onto the pile of prospects they would theoretically send to Pittsburgh in a Reynolds deal. MLBTR predicted Profar could secure a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason. That was before the market really got going and surpassed the expectations of many observers, though Profar lingering on the market suggests no team has been eager to blow him away by surging beyond that vicinity.
The Rangers currently have a competitive balance tax calculation of $219MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. Signing someone like Profar to about $10MM per year would start pushing them close to the $233MM luxury tax threshold. It’s unclear if that’s any kind of barrier for the club, but it’s something they would have to consider if they decide to bring Profar into the fold. The Marlins, meanwhile, are nowhere near the luxury tax but are in somewhat uncharted spending territory for them. Roster Resource has their payroll currently at $103MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $79MM mark, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and the highest since the Bruce Sherman-led group bought the team from Jeffrey Loria in 2017. It’s unknown how much more they have to work with but any further spending would continue to stretch them beyond comfort zone of the past few years.
Regardless of the final cost, there are logical reasons for both teams to pursue outfield upgrades. The Rangers have Adolis García in right field and Leody Taveras as a glove-first option in center. They’ve been on the hunt for left field upgrades, given that their current choices make up a mixed bag of imperfect options. Brad Miller, Josh Smith, Ezequiel Durán and Mark Mathias are on the roster, though they’ve all spent more time on the infield than the outfield in their careers. Furthermore, all but Mathias are coming off poor seasons at the plate. Bubba Thompson is a more straightforward solution since he’s an outfielder and can at least steal some bases, but he strikes out a ton and hit .265/.302/.312 in his major league debut.
The Marlins have been seeking outfield upgrades for quite some time but added a few options into the corners last year by signing Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Both players had disappointing seasons in 2022 but are still under contract for 2023, with Soler seemingly ticketed for plenty of time as the designated hitter after he dealt with back spasms in the later parts of last season. That could leave one corner available for someone like Profar, though they also have Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and JJ Bleday currently lined up to battle for the two spots next to Garcia. None of those three are truly established and an external addition could bump them all down the depth charts until they take steps forward in cementing themselves. De La Cruz hits right-handed and the other two from the left side, which could allow them to form a platoon in center with one player getting nudged to the bench or the minors.
No!!!!!
I agree. I would rather trade for A. Meadows for less money, Ian Happ for similar money but better OF, or Kepler for more power.. Even think a deal combo of Andujar and Bednar in a trade would be better. If you make a trade you clear 40 Man space and salary to a degree if Dunning was in the trade and perhaps Leclerc With that savings you could have your LF and then add some combination of Chafin, Moore, Smith, Fulmer and solve multiple problems
Dunning is still cheap. He has 4 years left and 2023 is minimum. Literally nobody can be chaper than him.
This dude is so average, that when I look myself in the mirror, I think I look good…
It’s an upgrade for Miami
How can anyone interested in Reynolds think Profar is any type of alternative? His career year was average across the board. Hoping for a repeat of average doesn’t merit the dollars or wasted playing time he would receive. Better to give those ABs to a rookie, whose ceiling is unknown.
If I’m trying to compete, I give the money to the league average guy and then hope my rookie forces me to give him the job. If I’m expecting to finish at the bottom, then it comes down to what I perceive the mental makeup of my rookie is. If he ends up not being ready for mlb pitching, I want to be sure he can hold up to the failure before either troting him out there everyday or demoting him for a different option. I think he can handle it, I run out the rookie.
I like the way you think Rogue!!
He is a cute one
BC’s high asking price for Reynolds is 2 fold
He’s not eligible for free agency until 2025 and they don’t really want to trade him.
I read on other Pirates related forums that they will try again to reach agreement on a new contract before spring training starts
3 fold. Pirates also have no clue what they are doing.
If Pittsburg could ever find an equally stupid trade partner it’s Miami. They should be all over miamis system ! Lopez Mayer Eder is as good as a package as they’ll ever get
For the sake of the Pirates fanbase, I really hope that they extend Reynolds. Not because he is a superstar, but because they deserve to have some of their hometown players retained. Its sets the right precedent and gives them familiar faces to root for and anchor the team. Plus, it is just good business strategy.
Huntingdon needs to overreach a bit and get this done, as it will still only cover mostly prime years for the most part.
As a reds fan (don’t tell anyone), the votto signing has set the franchise back a 1/2 decade or more and trying to have several high payroll players on a small market team is a failed business model. He also has generated his max value in fan revenue sometime ago. You don’t want that on your team just in case pirates strike gold in prospects or actual figure out how to have success as a small market team
Respectfully disagree whiffa…to a point. The small market teams can spend much more than they do most of the time, but they have convinced the fanbase that they cannot.
Do they have much stricter limits than large market / uber market teams? Of course. The Yankees, for example, can swallow a few underwater long term deals at a time and keep on ticking without having many concerns – they have made a career out of this.
But the small market teams hurt themselves by failing to have any continuity with the players that have grown with the team. They can’t sign all of their homegrown stars, but they can sign enough to keep it interesting.
22-25 million a year for one player will not sink any major league team, especially when said player has been as productive as Votto. In the lifetime of his contract, he’s had only two unproductive years. Match that up against Pujols, Miggy, etc. Also, fans get to watch a HOF’er stick with a single team. His contract isn’t to blame; half-hearted rebuilds, bad drafts, and bad trades are.
The small market teams can only sign one or two of those guys at 25-35 million and if they don’t both live up to that contract, it kills them. But I have crowed about that for a while.
Most they have to sell off after four years, because without two years of team control left, the large market team that usually ends up trading for them won’t give up any good prospects. So unless that bunch comes together during a 3-4 year period, it is all for naught and they have to start over.
That’s the reality for all but 10-12 teams in MLB. Even the middle markets have to get out now after a certain point as the large markets drive the salaries sky high.
Respectfully, I think that you bought into the small market owner PR firm just a bit too much.
The Braves are showing a way to do it, even though they have offered a few more contracts than a small market team can. Obviously, others such as the Rays work the same way at a lower level of payroll. Tie up the youngsters that you think are a terrific risk early in the control years and you are never committed to the contracts that extend beyond prime years. Stagger the deals so that they can fit into the yearly payroll. Trade when necessary, and develop like hell.
But even the small market team can withstand MUCH higher payrolls than they let on. They just have to pay closer attention, and be ready for the occasional teardown and rebuild as a necessity as opposed to an opportunistic strategy for a large market team.
Except the Braves are not a small market team. Atlanta is the sixth largest market and unlike NY, LA andChicago, all bigger markets, the Braves don’t have to share their market.
The Brewers would be a better example of a successful small market franchise.
As the financial books of almost all MLB teams are not open to the public, we have no way of knowing how much a franchise spends on all of its costs and whether or not they can afford to spend more.
@skeptic – I knew that I should have clarified that. ; )
No, the Braves are not a small market team, but that portion of their strategy applies and the intelligent small market teams (such as the Rays whom I did mention) use that as one of the primary approaches.
As far as “no way of knowing”, there is enough information out there that a good forensic accountant can deliver the goods as a projection. You have the Braves that are public…I think that the Blue Jays stuff is somewhat accessible as well. Plus there is plenty of historic information from over the years from the various teams if one does a deep dive. And much of this has been done…I have seen bits and pieces over the years.
The small market teams can spend quite a bit more on payroll than they want to let on. This doesn’t mean that it isn’t still tilted heavily in the favor of the large market teams…just that the little guys cry poor me far too often and it is not fair to their fanbase.
We know for the Braves. They are owned by a corporation that has to report that information to the public. They have spent $128 million and $134 million on all non-baseball related expenses the last 2 seasons.
The Blue Jays numbers are also public record, and they were slightly lower than the Braves.
I would be willing to bet that most teams are not that much different, and most would actually be less than that amount because they have less fans in the stands so require less support personnel to put on a game.
The Commish told us all that the teams were all making $250 million or more with the new TV and streaming deals in place, so we can all do the math. He also said that the sport made $10.7 billion on 2021 and was expected to make $11.5 billion in 2022 before the $900 million BAM sale. Player payroll was $4.56 billion in 2022. The owners have a long way to go before they approach 50% of revenue going to the players.
Other than the handful at the top, every team can afford to spend more on player salaries.
You are assuming a lot. You know nothing of expenses outside of player salaries plus there is a wide disparity in local TV revenues between large markets and small markets which are not shared.
Salary cap and floor is the best solution, look at the success of the NFL where fans of every team know they have a chance every season, unlike MLB which will not get off their posterior and save the game which is dying in flyover country.
Stating facts. Not assuming anything.
We know what the expenses of every sort are for the Braves and Blue Jays. because they release them quarterly. Both teams are very close in non-baseball related expenses. Do you really think other teams are all that different?
We know that the Commissioner in his infinite wisdom, told all of us what the smallest team revenue was and what overall revenue for the league was. Nobody out there that knows more than he does about that subject.
There will never be a salary cap until MLB owners are willing to open their books like the Braves and Blue Jays are required to do because they are owned by publicly traded companies.
In the NFL ALL revenue is shared %. All TV and radio deals are set up by the NFL and no team owns a share of the network that carries their games. In what alternate universe will teams like the Dodgers and Yankees give up hundreds of million to make that happen in MLB?
The LA market is geographically averse to any sharing between markets. Our vastness and sheer size of the market is amenable to having 2 teams. The Socal market should have 3 MLB teams and 3 NBA Teams.
The Sacramento Kings almost moved to Anaheim a few years back. The Honda Center, where the Mighty Ducks play, could easily support a profitable NBA team. It would be much easier than driving to downtown LA to go to a Clippers or Lakers game at BItcoin Arena.
The problem with MLB is that the Yankees and Dodgers and their brethren run the sport to the detriment of it. Like corporations or politicians, as long as they get theirs, the heck with the rest.
Commissioners are like politicians as well, they will couch things to look good, but we all know numbers can be manipulated.
If the Dodgers make a billion and Cincinnati makes 100 million, the Commish can come out and say the average team made over 500 million, but that doesn’t make it true.
The new CBA, like the last CBA, was terrible once again for small market clubs. Everyone realizes that except those who follow those teams who want to give excuses for their advantage.
There are teams who are not managed properly, but that is a different discussion. That happens in all sports.
I feel the same way about the Padres and Profar. He played with heart.
They said the same on MLB Network this morning. Apparently the writer was watching.
The rangers need to hard pass here for multiple reasons. Thompson is likely going to be a much better overall player as he gains experience. You can offer DET Miller/Leclerc and Dunning for a gain of two forty-man roster spots and about 6 M in salary difference for a better OF iand hitter in Meadows. You then use that 6M gain and add another 6 and you can sign Chafin/Moore + Fulmer and fix both LF and BP problems for the same money Profar would get.
Miller, sure. LeClerc??? Why ruin an already weak bullpen when you have a very good guy under market rate?
Why would Detroit do that when they are looking to add to their offence? They need a lefty for the bullpen, which they can get in FA. Also, they are not moving Meadows while his value is at his lowest. Come back at the all-star break.
They should work on strengthening their bullpen more than anything.
I sure appreciate articles like this. It seems like this year is different than others but perhaps I wasn’t paying attention before now.
MLBTR is keeping us updated on the latest free agency news which includes articles like this one covering the top remaining guys available. Really good stuff. Thank you very much.
I have not spent almost any time in the comments section until the past few weeks, but have used this site as a resource since close to the beginning. And I agree that they have really stepped up their game when it comes to producing articles.
Of course it is in their best interest to do so, but the nature of how to pay for enough writers in the media market these days is rough. Clearly, Tim has grown this to the point that they can start to add more and more content. Happy for all of them.
Wait, the Mets aren’t among the teams in on him?
They apparently like Tommy Pham more.
Did I really just read 6 paragraphs devoted to comparing Profar to Reynolds? Good lord it’s a slow news day..
Apples to oranges
This guy has WAY overestimated his market, it sounds like.
How so? About 8 to 10 teams have been connected to him and he hasn’t signed yet. It sounds like the market has underestimated him as it’s almost certain he’ll get a major league deal.
I am glad the Yankees seem to be staying away. I was on the fence about Profar, but Gwynning confirmed my fears about his play.
If it is this close to spring training and he hasn’t been signed then he is asking way too much.
You can pretty much look around at the rest left and say the same.
Not necessarily. He could have been waiting to see how the markets for other guys played out. Instead of jumping at early offers, he and his agent may have simply decided to wait until there were more teams needing his services than comparable players available. If i had to chose between Reynolds and Profar, in a vacuum it’s obviously Reynolds, but it’s not in a vacuum. All profar costs is money. I’d rather pay him and keep as many of my arms as possible. Your mileage may vary.
It seems like regardless of what we want. The Rangers are going to go over the CBT line. The safest thing to do is just get Profar for 2/15 with maybe a 3rd year option and a opt out after 1. Then sign Chafin or Moore in the neighborhood of 3/30. Just be done with it!! Much easier to spend the money than give up any prospects, and sort it out at the trade deadline.
Red Sox should be after him instead of Harris
How is arb pay value determined?
Here in Baltimore, Hays got 3.2 mil and Mullins 4.1. Offensively, their stats in 22 look comparable to non arb Profar? All 3 are outfielders. Profar agent asking for 10 mil per yr for 2 yrs is an overpay or are O’s duo underpaid? Especially Mullins being a plus defender in CF.
The O’s duo is underpaid. Hays and Mullins would both do significantly better if they could solicit their services to all 30 teams. The arb system is about cost control. Allows teams to have young talent at team friendly prices until they lose the guys in free agency. It’s basically the cost the players union has agreed to pay in exchange for no salary cap. The Dodgers Padres and Yankees can spend a gazillion dollars on any free agent they want, allowing for soaring contracts and huge payrolls; in exchange teams get the first six years of their players at controlled rates.
I’m guessing this is more of Kim Ng’s “we tried” efforts for her Spring Training interviews.
Juan Soto is not a switch hitter.
No kidding. But Reynolds and Profar are.
Surprised at the lack of commentary around what might end up being a boneheaded decision by him to decline 7.5 mil guaranteed this year. Sorry if this was a double post, hate commenting on the app.
he only left 6.5mm on tge table.
Thanks for the correction, didn’t include the buyout
Profar, so good. No thanks.
A reunion coming for Profar and the Rangers? I think that would be fitting.