The Orioles have continued their previously reported interest in free-agent starter Michael Wacha, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. There is no indication that talks between the two parties have been particularly serious. Wacha would give the Orioles a second free-agent veteran arm signing, with the club having already added Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal in early December.
Wacha, 31, threw 127 1/3 innings with a 3.32 ERA during the 2022 season. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 41.2% ground ball rate were both below the league average for starters, but he coupled that with a strong 6.0% walk rate. Nevertheless, advanced fielding-independent metrics were not as bullish on his baseline ERA work, with Wacha finishing the season posting a 4.14 FIP and a 4.07 SIERA. Likely contributing to these higher metrics was the 80.3% strand rate that set a career-high by nearly 7% and some luck with balls in play (.260 BABIP).
Notably, 2022 was Wacha’s first season since 2015 in which he threw over 100 innings with a sub-4 ERA. Additionally, 2022 marked the righty’s fourth consecutive season where he was limited to less than 130 innings, excluding the COVID-19 2020 season. Wacha required two separate stints on the injured list during the 2022 season, missing a couple of weeks with left intercostal irritation in May and missing the bulk of July dealing with right shoulder inflammation.
The Birds are projected to start 2023 with a rotation comprised of Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, and Kyle Bradish. Additionally, Mike Baumann and DL Hall, who made their MLB debuts during the 2022 season, figure to have roles with the big league club during the 2023 season, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely earn a call-up as well. Veteran John Means is also projected to return to Baltimore during the 2023 season, having undergone Tommy John surgery in April.
Wacha is the last unsigned starting pitcher on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent List and would aid the Orioles in their quest to return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 AL Wild Card game. MLBTR predicted that Wacha would sign a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.
Some more notes from around the league…
- Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks expects to be throwing off a mound around March 1, per Meghan Montemurro of The Chicago Tribune (Twitter Link). Hendricks ended the 2022 season on the injured list after dealing with a capsular tear in his right shoulder that limited him to 16 starts. The 33-year-old’s rehab has reportedly been behind schedule, but the righty has told reporters, including Montemurro, that his shoulder feels “amazing” and that the Cubs want him to “take advantage of this ramp up of the long toss program,” which will likely delay his 2023 debut. The 2023 season is Hendricks’ last year with a guaranteed contract, with the Cubs holding a $16MM club option for the 2024 season.
- The Rockies are not one of the teams interested in Jurickson Profar, reports Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. The switch-hitting outfielder finished the 2022 season with a .243/.331/.391 slash line, popping 15 home runs and 36 doubles. Additionally, Profar is ranked by MLBTR as the top remaining free agent and is the lone unsigned position player from the list. MLBTR’s own Anthony Franco recently wrote an article detailing which teams make the most sense for the 29-year-old veteran, with the Rangers, Marlins, and Braves standing out as potential suitors. The Astros had reportedly expressed interest in Profar before re-signing Michael Brantley.
Where’s wow guy?
Profar makes sense for the Yankees, but don’t want him on a multi-year deal.
Profar makes a lot of sense on several teams if he is fine only taking one year. Problem up until this point is that he’s wanting a 3-year deal by the sounds of it.
Lord – You beat him to first post, he’s probably sitting on his bed in his room with his head down and arms folded in anger.
Regarding Wacha, I can understand the injury concerns and the appearance of 2022 being fluky. But if teams are really staying away because of his 2022 metrics, that’s absurd. ERA should still be viewed as the most important stat for starting pitchers, especially with the poor defense that was behind him.
He had a 5.05 ERA playing in front of excellent Tampa defense as recently as 2021. Maybe he re-learned how to suppress home runs after being very good at that earlier in his career, but the BABIP luck looks totally random.
As the article says, Wacha was below average in strikeout rate and groundball rate, doing very well in walk rate. He got somewhat lucky in the number of hits he allowed and the number of baserunners he surrendered who came around to cross the plate, so that poor defense behind him actually wasn’t all that poor when he was pitching. No team should expect a repeat of 2022’s ERA.
What is it with O’s FO and their affinity for Bosox pitching? And Roch is a reliable source locally. More fire than smoke here?
You’re right about Roch. If Elias does land Wacha, I’d expect Voth to get moved before Spring Training concludes (assuming everyone pulls through w/o injuries).
ERA is the most important stat for a pitcher? I wish that would have been your first sentence. It would have saved me some time.
Fever, I even gave Wow guy 15 minutes before I posted.
Maybe Wacha and Profar are similar in that they’re seeking multi-year deals and teams are only interested in one-year deals.
Wacha had made some adjustments and I was expecting a breakout with the
Rays. Maybe it was delayed a season.
Lord – Right you are about the adjustments. While with the Rays late in the 2021 season Wacha ditched the 89 MPH Cutter, which batters were teeing off against to the tune of a .376 BAA. He also started relying more on the Curve.
I find it absolutely hilarious that the exact same people who were praising Bloom’s decision to give Wacha $7M last year are now crapping on Wacha because he hasn’t re-signed with the Sox.
ERA should still be viewed as the most important stat for starting pitchers,
============================
K/W precedes ERA. Last year, of the top-30 guys in K/W, 28 had ERAs under 4.00, one had a 4.34 and Berrios was the only real outlier with a 5.23. And I would choose OPS slightly over ERA, depending on time frame.
However, in Wacha’s case, there is an additional consideration that he had a 5.28 in his final 8 starts. I’d still give the guy a shot, but I don’t think I’d add that second year.
Joe – Wacha’s K/W since 2020 is 3.80
Maddux’s career K/W is 3.37 and in 1992 when he won the Cy it was 2.84
Major fail on your part to say K/W precedes ERA.
The goal for starting pitchers is ALWAYS to allow the fewest number of earned runs possible.
I can’t believe I actually have to remind anyone of that.
FPG,
K:BB ratio has increased for everyone over time as strikeouts have become more prevalent. And citing one example from 30 years ago doesn’t make Joe’s point invalid, it demonstrates a possible exception to the rule.
The goal for any pitcher (starter or reliever) is always to allow the fewest number of runs (earned or unearned) possible.
gbs – Throughout MLB, yes K:BB has increased. Do you know why? Expanded pitching staffs and shorter appearances by both starters and relievers that allow them to throw as hard as they can during their abbreviated appearances.
Do you know what that means? It means those who overvalue K’s and undervalue ERA think that a starting pitcher who K’s 8 over 5 innings with two ER is more valuable than a starting pitcher who K’s 3 over 7 innings with just one ER. That’s an idiotic way of looking at it.
Last year Kluber had a 4.34 ERA and was 3rd in MLB with a 6.62 K/BB, who the hell would consider him Top 3 or even among the Top 50 starting pitchers last year? This whole conversation is idiotic.
Two things can be true at the same time. Wacha isn’t a sub-3.50 ERA pitcher. This was only the second time in his career he’s had a sub-3.50 ERA in 120+ innings/20+ starts. But is he a 4.50+ ERA pitcher? It’s more likely than him having an ERA under 3.50, but it’s not very likely period.
I think Profar’s free agency will linger into ST for that very reason. Nobody wants to make any commitment beyond a year based on one semi-solid year in 2022. I really don’t think any GM is gonna blink first where he’s concerned.
Profar has been trash most of his career. There is little reason to believe otherwise, unless you are Profar or his agent.
I wouldn’t say trash; more like recyclable
A Super Utility who had 3.1 War last year, 66 homers over past 4.4 years. good OBP, a little speed. However, his defense is poor.
I like him. Where ever your team gets an injury he’s a nice plug, and you don’t miss a thing with the bat. A better hitting Brock Holt if you will.
I guess Im his Agent.
DeGrom – 90% of all of your post are trash… Every thread, every uneducated comment. It is sad.
Like you?
I hope he does join the Yankees.
@LordD99- Profar is far better then Hicks who needs to be traded somewhere before he becomes a 10/5 player. Yanks would be wise to DFA him at this point. I would be fine with Profar at $15 million a season for 3 years, another player you can play anywhere on the Diamond.
I wish the Reds would make an attempt at Wacha and Greinke to blend with their young starters. They also have not done much to improve their horrible bullpen from a year ago. Until MLB addresses a hard salary cap which the Players Association will be against because they love the land of guaranteed money the disparity between the haves and the have nots will only grow. One way to help would be how much television money each team can spend toward player contracts.
@ redhaze1
The thing is it’s not really the haves and have nots. It’s the ‘Haves’ and the ‘Choose not to spend what they haves’.
The Reds could run out a $200M lineup onto that field if they wanted to. They choose to pocket the profits. Thats their choice because it’s their business. We see that type of thing all the time with other businesses where business owners run dirty unsafe workplaces with cheap labour and make a boatload of profit and never really reinvest that money back into the business.
There’s probably only one or two teams in the Majors that could cry actual poverty (Oakland, maybe). The Reds aren’t one of them.
Look at the Pirates. Amazing stadium, great loyal local fanbase, probably have a good tv deal, or certainly could if they don’t. Year in, year out they could absolutely field a $200M team. The owner chooses not to.
The way to fix it is not a cap. There should be a requirement that all teams must report gross profits to the league office each year and are then required to spend at minimum lets say 60% of that on player saleries the next season. The players are after all the profit generators.
This will never happen obviously, but if it did, I bet you’d be surprised by how much some teams could actually spend if they were forced to.
@Canuckleball – The only reliable profitability numbers out of MLB comes from the Atlanta Braves, one of the wealthier franchises in baseball. In 2019, the Braves generated $476M in revenue and the team payroll was $136M that season. Guess what their total Operating profits were for that season? Only $54M. After factoring in depreciation, amortization and non-cash compensation like stock options, the Atlanta Braves posted a net loss of $32M from a GAAP/tax standpoint in 2019. This shows that baseball isn’t quite as profitable as you think. $476M in revenue is quite large, but with a payroll of only $136M, it really shows how expensive it is to run a MLB team. After deducting team payroll, the Braves has another ~$285M of operating costs beyond player payroll. Given this, I don’t believe there are a lot of teams who could run out a $200M payroll and still pull in a profit like you are stating. I’m sure that most teams do make a profit when it’s all said and done but these owners are not pocketing 100’s of million dollars per year, far from it.
Teams that go deep into the playoffs make substantially more money. I believe the Braves turned an operating profit of $104M (off of over $500M in revenue) after winning the World Series in 2021, but their payroll was still below $200M. That’s about as good as you get right there unless you are the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox.
San Diego is now running with a player payroll almost equalling their total revenue. My guess is they are running a deficit near or over $100 million per year. Even a billionaire hobbyist is going to quickly stop spending so much unless revenues go up dramatically. The Cardinals aren’t making nearly as much as people believe. Revenues are slightly less than $100 million more than payroll. From that they run a stadium, pay for the travel of over 40 people in luxury accomodations, run spring training facities, a minor league system, a foreign scouting system, and all their non-baseball office personnel.
Remember folks, the non-payroll expenses aren’t much if any more for the team’s bringing in north of $400 million per year. It’s very unrealistic to expect team’s bringing in less than $300 million per year to run a payroll over $200 million.
Canuckleball2 hours ago
The Reds could run out a $200M lineup onto that field if they wanted to.
================================
According to Forbes, the Reds had -0- operating profit last year. Even assuming a good accountant can move some numbers around, I doubt they can add $69M in expense and still break even.
I couldn’t have said it better myself. Actually I have for a while now.
A projected 80 million payroll is disgusting for a club that averaged 130 a few years ago. So there is plenty of room to address these things as well as another major league outfielder or really two since Senzel can’t stay on the field.
Yes no salary cap. What is needed is a salary minimum. Cheap owners aren’t good for the overall health of MLB.
They need a cap and a floor like the NFL. There’s a reason why that league is the most popular one. Every team has a chance every year. You can’t fix just plain bad management but there is no payroll disparity.
The real reason is all TV revenue is through the league and shared. MLB is the only sport allowing TV revenue to have such a huge disparity between teams. A floor without sharing TV revenue would likely cause contraction as an unintended consequence.
Yes, you’re right, ALL TV revenues would have to be shared for it to work. The reason it hasn’t happened is the large markets want to keep their advantage. Pure and simple.
We all know where MLB HQ is too.
Otherwise, contraction is happening sooner than anyone thinks the way salaries are increasing exponentially.
@red “the disparity between the haves and the have nots will only grow.”
The problem is the teams still playing tanking when it’s no longer a viable strategy. The league needs to clean up franchises that refuse to be competitive. Teams that are spending are NOT the problem.
This is the refrain of large market fans that have no idea of what small market franchises deal with because they see their teams awash in money and think all teams are equal.
@this one belongs to reds
Rays baseball.
Why won’t Bloom sign this guy?!? Even if just for trade bait once it becomes clear that the ‘23 season is lost. i.e. mid-May.
Wacha or Profar?
Then Bloomers trades Wacha for a 25-year old infielder hitting .195 in A-ball.
Then haters forget they said this and whine when Wacha implodes.
And it is also illogical to expect that we can pay more than everyone for Wacha, and then expect to make a profit when we sell. These folks should try this on E-Bay. Outbid everyone for an Oliva rookie, and then to sell him for a profit.
If Wacha’s real number is $8M/1, and we pay $9M/1, his real number is still only $8M/1.
That said, I think he fits us.
exactly
Wacha wacha! Wacha >>> Gibson
Will the Orioles ever Schiste or get off the pot
Hell, are they even on the pot?
Idk what’s going on with the constant Wacha waffling either. Maybe Elias is worried about Spring injuries or Voth/Wells regression?
It should nit be this hard
Wacha and his agent want multiple year deal. O’s FO will do only one plus a mutual option year?
That’s probably the case. Wouldn’t blame Elias for that. There may not be a need for him in ‘24.
C Yard:
Mutual option is almost the same as ‘no second year’. Since, 95% of the time, one side or other walks away from the deal.
So, if Wacha is looking for a two-year deal, I dont see him liking that type of deal. Its a very small concession off of a one-year offer.
Let’s face facts. I’m sure a lot of players hesitate to sign with the Orioles due to them being in such a nasty area. I can tell you that if I were a player and the O’s offered me 8 million while Cincinnati or Pittsburgh offered me half of that, I’d be wearing a Reds or Pirates uniform.
O’s Opening Day rotation will certainly start as Kremer, Bradish, Gibson as locks. Voth turned it around after waiver claim from Nat’s, and Wells could continue his notable SP development. Considering inevitable return of John Means this season, and opportunity for DL Hall to crack roster as SP (I think GrayRod starts season in Norfolk), I just don’t see need to sign Wacha. The Baltimore bullpen is already fairly loaded. If Birds were to bring in outside pitching at this point, it should probably be addition by subtraction (trade from 40-man/deep farm system vs free agent veteran signing).
Profar overestimated his worth and is paying for it now. Probably only a one year deal at not much over the minimum right before spring training in the end.
Hitting in the 240s doesn’t impress too many people.
I think Dodgers should get wacha and profar
Wacha could at least fit the Dodgers MO. Cycle on and off the Injured List to give the pitching staff more rest.
In 204 career starts Wacha is 34-8: when clean shaven. 6-2 when pitching with noticeable stubble and 14-40 while bearded.
so the Yankees need to sign him.
Wacha needs to put on 45 pounds and then the Yankees will be all over him. Fat, injury prone pitchers are what they’re all about.
Like I said a few weeks If Kyle Hendricks can come back and have a good first half of season.
And Ian Happ has the same along with Eric Hosmer.
Jed Hoyer sure be a very popular BOBA at the trading deadline.
2023 may not be CUBS year but 2024 and next 10 years the Cubs may rule National League
ok
I wonder if Profar priced himself out of returning to the Padres by opting of his contract. Well liked in clubhouse and by fans. Grass is Not Always Greener
Any chance Grayson is with the O’s major league club opening day? Or will they wait to preserve another year of control?
Anything could happen during Spring Training. However, considering the injury that Grayson sustained made him miss a decent amount of time last season at AAA, I’d expect the O’s to want him to start this season in Norfolk. This doesn’t have anything to do w/ service clock manipulation, it’s all about making sure that their top rated pitching prospect is really ready for MLB action when he gets the call. He should be expected to arrive this season, though.
Did Profar opt out of the final year of his contract? And what was he signed for in 23?
He turned down 8.5 million. Dude has hit .250 for like 9 years lol. I like the guy but anyone can hit .230
VentureRealms, Not that the stat matters much, but Average BA in MLB was .242 in 2022 so a lot of players probably didn’t hit .230
League BA was .242 so guessing a lot of players didn’t hit .230
The Orioles are not signing Wacha. Their off-season work was done when they signed Gibson. Gotta keep the money in the owners pocket and tell fans nothing panned out like they hoped this off-season. Tell fans they are carefully and painstakingly rebuilding the farm system and they are sticking to the plan. Orioles fans will keep believing it while the owners keep pocketing millions.
sounds like the Red Sox owner
The Red Sox player payroll is around $205M now. The O’s are around $86.5M. Huge difference.
The Orioles will finish behind the Tigers for W-L this year and not win more than 75 games. They should have signed some solid starters. They could have used Rodon not Wacha. Next year!
Motor City Beach Bum;
How can we place a bet?
Interesting take on the win-loss prediction for B’more. I’m curious to see how well it will age.
Is it just me or does Michael Wacha look a bit like Paul Rudd?
Profar with 51 XBH and still slugs under .400. impressive
It is a little surprising that Wacha is still available this late in the off-season.
Profar seems to have over played his hand by opting out of his Padres deal. He won’t be getting more money or a longer term deal whenever he does sign.
I don’t see a reunion in Texas but wonder if the Dodgers would have interest with McCutchen now off the board. Profar can play other positions (arguably not well) but does offer “versatility”
Rsox – In tonight’s chat Mark made some solid points, Wacha is probably just being picky about where he wants to play, or perhaps is holding out for more years.
Being available in January doesn’t necessarily mean he’s not wanted or valued.
Could be another Jake Odorizzi situation from a couple of years ago where he held out until finally getting a multi-year deal with Houston.
I don’t doubt there is interest, what i wonder is if teams have seen enough of the “new and improved” Michael Wacha to offer the multi-year deal he is seeking