The status of Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds is one of the top storylines of the offseason’s second half. Trade rumors surrounding the former All-Star are nothing new and they returned last month once Reynolds asked the club to deal him.
That trade request came after talks about a long-term extension between his camp and the Pirates fizzled out. The precise numbers under discussion at the time aren’t clear, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the club put forth an offer that would’ve topped the franchise-record $70MM guarantee that Ke’Bryan Hayes had secured last spring. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette shed further light on the talks as part of a reader mailbag this week, reporting that Pittsburgh’s offer was roughly $50MM shy of what Reynolds and his representatives at CAA had sought.
That’d set a floor of approximately $120MM for Reynolds’ asking price, although it’s possible his camp was aiming higher than that. It’s not known how far above $70MM the Bucs offered. Mackey writes that Pittsburgh’s proposal involved fewer seasons than the eight years Hayes received, although Reynolds would obviously have pulled in more on an annual basis. That’s unsurprising considering Reynolds now has two more years of major league service than Hayes had at the time of his deal.
Reynolds, who turns 28 later this month, has between three and four years of big league service. He’s under contract for $6.75MM next season in what would’ve been his second year of arbitration. In the absence of a long-term deal, he’ll go through the arbitration process twice more before hitting free agency over the 2025-26 offseason.
Six players in that service bucket have signed extensions topping $70MM, with Sean Murphy joining that club last week. Just two players in the 3-4 year service class have reached $120MM, with Freddie Freeman holding the record on his $135MM deal with the Braves from the 2013-14 offseason. Freeman was nearly four years younger at the time of his deal than Reynolds is now and coming off a .319/.396/.501 showing in 2013 that rivals Reynolds’ career-best season from 2021.
Given the age discrepancy, one could certainly argue Freeman was a better long-term bet than Reynolds would be, although it’d also wouldn’t be surprising if the latter’s camp wanted to approach or beat that precedent. After all, the Freeman extension is now nearly nine years old. Matt Olson landed an eight-year, $168MM extension with the Braves going into his age-28 season last year. Olson was a year closer to free agency and coming off a .271/.371/.540 showing that topped Reynolds’ .262/.345/.461 mark from 2022. Reynolds seems unlikely to reach the heights Olson secured for those reasons, but that more recent deal leads credence to the idea the Pittsburgh outfielder had a case to easily beat nine figures.
That seems mostly theoretical so long as Reynolds remains a Pirate. There’s no indication the sides plan to reengage on a potential long-term deal after talks collapsed. However, it’s at least possible another club swings a trade for the center fielder and subsequently looks to reopen extension discussions.
Pittsburgh has maintained they don’t plan to move off a very lofty asking price in trade talks, Reynolds’ request notwithstanding. The Vanderbilt product has no recourse to force a trade. Jon Morosi of MLB.com suggested late last month Pittsburgh was targeting a high-end pitching prospect at the center of potential trade packages. It’s hard to imagine they’d rigidly require a deal being built around a young arm, although that at least serves as the latest reaffirmation GM Ben Cherington and his front office continue to aim high.
Nevertheless, Mackey suggests there’s a good chance the Bucs pull the trigger on a Reynolds trade at some point in 2023. Pittsburgh is still amidst a rebuild, and Reynolds is their most appealing trade candidate. They’re not under much financial pressure to make a move, although there’s certainly a case for the club to seriously entertain offers both this offseason and at next summer’s deadline — particularly now that hopes of an extension seem to have evaporated. Assuming he has another productive season, Reynolds would still have ample trade value by next offseason, although it’s unlikely Pittsburgh will find much stronger interest than there’ll be over the coming months considering his window of club control will only shrink.
vaderzim
Oof, he’s definitely gone within the next 7 months.
GASoxFan
Cherington is also the one who blew the Lester situation. One can argue how much ownership was pulling the strings, both then and now, but, locking in homegrown products is a lesson that doesn’t seem to have taken hold.
He’s still young enough that an extension would leave a viable player as you exit the rebuild, and, that the veteran presence would be helpful. Then again, go cheap is the FO motto so…
JockStrap
He’s also the one that pulled the trigger in trading to assist the Sox in WS in 2007 like 2013.
Anything else you got?
GASoxFan
Never argued Ben has no good traits or accomplishments. But he also has some glaring negatives as well.
Pointing one of those out here.
Clepto_
GA Sox: Stop. You have no idea what you are talking about. Pittsburgh and Boston, whom you are referencing are two COMPLETELY different markets. You, of all people, are not sitting in the FO listening in on who they may or may not have tried to extend at either time frame.
GASoxFan
There’s this wonderful thing Clepto, it’s called READING. you know, this thing called NEWS.
Read publicly available documents and news stories, live interviews you can watch and listen to players and agents give feedback. Beat writers that talk to sources.
Live footage of a tearful Lester getting into his f150 after being told he was traded after being lowballed and insulted, then leaving the only franchise he ever knew.
More recent reporting about extension efforts in PIT.
Sure, they’re different markets, but, the GM is the same, and, handling of controllable talent and the divide between market value comps and apparent/reported offers remains the same
bloodreddawgs
If only we were all perfect like you
jtm2889
He’s also the one that signed Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo (ever heard of him? I didn’t think so) to massive contracts that hamstrung the Red Sox for years , in part playing a role in the team losing both Mookie Betts and Bogaerts.
Anything else you got?
JockStrap
What other choice did Ben have in the 2014 FA class? He picked up the best hitters on the market that year & unfortunately it didn’t work out, With Castillo, the money never went against Sox’s payroll once he was outrighted to AAA. So spare me that 10 million a season would have had a difference on keeping Mookie or not.
BStrowman
Reynolds is a sell.
If a high impact prospect is dangled to headline a package—you jump. Pair that guy with O’Neil, Hayes, Davis, Endy Rod and the arms they have coming up. Division isn’t terribly strong. None of the farm systems in their division are remarkable.
Maybe you can pull a rabbit out of the hat and compete in ‘24 if everything goes right. It’ll be interesting to see which team stops sucking first. Reds or Pirates.
Seemed like the Pirates were on the better path before last season. Not sure id say that now.
YourDreamGM
I will take Pirates. They look poised to take a step this year. Actually filled holes in free agency this year. Not as many players auditioning. Reds are moving in the right direction. They really improved their farm. They had a winning record in 2021 so not like they have been awful long.
C Yards Jeff
Yes. He is a sell. His value is high enough that I feel he could fetch more than a prospect or 2. In return the Pirates could definitely get some MLB proven talent. Miami SP comes to mind. IE a Rogers or Garrett or Lopez. Yes?!
As stated often on this site recently, it’s no secret that the Fish need an everyday CF. Come on with it NG, move!!!!
outhaus33
Per Bleacher Report:
Best ranked farm systems
St Louis – 3rd
Pittsburgh- 5th
Cincinnati- 7th
so point 1. is moot
St Louis is always strong
Cubs made at least some moves
Pirates filled holes
If Pirates want a shot at contention and not just ride the sub .500 train, they should definitely extend
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
Why would they target a 28-year-old CF with a four-year rebuild on the horizon in Miami?
What they need to do is to target guys under-25 y.o. with 5-plus years of control and dump all of their assets into a huge pot of prospects to run out there everyday and sign long-term deals early when they prove themselves like ATL and SEA.
If I am Miami, I’m trading Sandy Alcantara who is probably the most over-hyped SP in baseball. Not to say he’s not good, just not a Top 5 or 10 pitcher. He just had a career year and will most likely be a 3-4 WAR pitcher moving forward. The indicator being his 100 mph fastball and below 9.0 K/9, which means his ability to survive is tied to elite velo, not elite stuff. Whatever he is now, Alcantara shouldn’t be off-limits. He was one of the best in 2022, but I don’t expect that to continue.
I would trade Alcantara for Tatis Jr. with the Marlins also getting Dylan Lesko, while Avisail Garcia and Jesus Sanchez go to the Padres. The Padres need to deal with Tatis and the divided clubhouse, while Miami needs to prove they will go all-in and stay in on a player. With some promise to remain competitive and return him to SS, he’d probably sign off on the deal.
I would then move Pablo Lopez, Sixto Sanchez, and Max Meyer to Arizona for Druw Jones, Christian Walker, and Lourdes Gurriel.
I would extend Gurriel (5-year ext. W/ 2 options) and Walker (3-year ext. with two options). Along with Tatis, that’s a 3-4-5 that could hit 100 HRs in a season.
The rotation would be Perez, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, and Garrett.
The lineup would also have Segura (3B), Chisholm (2B), Cooper (DH), Soler (RF), with Fortes and Stallings sharing the catching position, while Berti is the super utility guy and De La Cruz in CF.
Jones would eventually take over CF, Berry would replace Segura at 3B or push Walker to a full-time DH role by playing 1B. But it would be a team that is far more attractive to free agents with young guys like Jones, Chisholm and Tatis. Plus merchandise would be easy to sell.
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
Not a 28-year-old when he is 1/2 the offense for the team! If the Mariners get him and it’s in addition to the team-friendly deals it makes sense because the Mariners won’t rise or fall based on Reynolds, but if Reynolds is less than his 2021 version, the Pirates couldn’t play well enough to break .500 in 2023, 2024, or 2025. In his 30s, he can’t be the main player for them and make the playoffs.
BaseballisLife
A step up to 4th place? The Pirates can’t compete even in a relatively weak Central.
BaseballisLife
Bleacher Report? You actually read that? Why?
MLB, BA, BP, Law. Beyond those 4 the only other ranking worth reading is Fangraphs.
BaseballisLife
Angels, What are you smoking?
LFGSD619
He extended Hayes did he not?
Mystery Team
Cherington had nothing to do with that nonsense or the Panda nonsense as well. He’s actually very good at building a prospect system unless you have guys like Larry Lucchino breathing down your neck or just flat out making moves on his own. He was fired in Boston as a scapegoat when Dombrowski came in. Dombrowski was brought in to trade all the prospects Cherington had accumulated which he did and it resulted in a title which Cherington got zero credit for. To blame him for the Pirates current state is full blown jackassery. They have a solid minor league system what’s he supposed to do if the owner doesn’t have winning at the top of his to do list?
GASoxFan
For the record: cherington wasn’t fired by the red sox. He resigned of his own will, no pressure. He just didn’t want to work under DD.
Next, DD traded very few guys that amounted to much of anything. Ever. Even the prospects traded to CHW for Sale underperformed the production Chris put up during his below market value pre-extension years. But outside those guys, nobody ever amounted to much of anything.
So, to say DD traded all the valuable guys cherington stockpiled… well, there’s a reason it was quantity over quality trades.
Cherington did some good work on a few of his trades, others were lacking. He did some good drafting, and, some swings and misses at a high level.
I will, however, agree he has some constraints by an owner who isn’t looking to spend, but, that doesn’t also mean he isn’t a mix of good and bad as far as his abilities go.
TJECK109
Uhh but that’s the reason you build quantity. Not every player you trade for is going to be a top 100 player. So you keep stockpiling the prospects to hopefully use in deals when your roster finally takes shape.
szielinski
Nutting wants to win. He just won’t spend $200M to do so.
JoeBrady
Lucchino is the one that blew the Lester deal from what I read. LL couldn’t stand the fact that Theo got all the credit and then forced him out. When Cherington won the WS, he didn’t like him getting all the credit, and interceded in the Lester negotiations, to show the kids ‘how we did it in the old days’.
dugmet
He can use Nimmo’s contract as a comp, eh?
CaptainJudge99
It really doesn’t make any sense to not trade him right now. Reynolds trade value will never be higher, even after a year that was considered not such a great year for him.
Skeptical
Really? You know the future?
I would wait unit the trade deadline if I was gong to trade him this year. If Reynolds is motivated to be traded, he will be motivated to have a good season. If Reynolds has a decent start to 2023. his trade value may be higher, perhaps significantly higher, at the trade deadline when some teams are desperate for a “key piece”. Lots of ifs, but there always are.
CaptainJudge99
This is ridiculous to have to trade Bryan Reynolds over $50 million dollars. The Pirates can burp that, and are total cheapskates. Smh
Robertowannabe
The difference was 5o million not a 50 million contract. If the Bucs offered say 12o over 8 and Reynold was asking 170 million, that is potentially a lot of money for any of the lower income 15-20 teams to eat if his production drops and he is under preforming for the last ~3 years. Can.t be like the Yanks, Dodgers, Mets, and the other top 10 or so revenue teams and just eat the contract and buy a new younger and better player because you can easily afford it with you large local income.
CaptainJudge99
@Robertowannabe- If you can’t give a Franchise Player an extension and are $50 million apart, the best thing to do is trade him for prospects now. I would think the Pirates don’t want an unhappy player on their team, this obviously will effect his play. It’s definitely in Pittsburgh’s best interest to move him while he still has a lot of value.
Ma4170
No, but we’ve seen Pittsburgh’s payroll up at $100M in 2016 and around that figure while they were successful. They’re barely over $40M now. They can afford to invest in some of their young talent long-term. Is Reynolds that guy? Idk… but Nimmo’s 8/160-ish contract is a good comp.
Robertowannabe
I am sure they are considering offers right now. If they get a good offer, I am sure the Bucs will take it. If not, they will wait until the deadline and there will be teams looking for an OF heading towards the playoffs could over pay if there are multiple teams bidding for him .
CaptainJudge99
@Robertowannabe- I mean pay your “franchise player” if not trade him already and stop complaining. Why would a team wanna trade a top 3 prospect for an unhappy player? That makes zero sense. The Pirates best interest would be to trade Reynolds ASAP for a nice haul of prospects.
BartoloHRball
Bob Nutting (Pirates owner) is worth $1B+. He bought the Pirates for $92m and they are now worth $1.29B. The Pirates *CAN* afford to spend, but they CHOOSE not to spend. A bottom 1/3 payroll all while raking in $$$ from richer clubs. They took that BAM $$ and pocketed ALL of it. $30m most recently, but Disney has spent nearly 3 BILLION on BAM, with the vast majority of that investment benefiting MLB. Anyone believing that the Pirates can’t compete are fooling themselves. MLB ownership is lucrative because the value of clubs keeps going up, AND they have taken advantage of other revenue streams like BAM and regional sports networks.
latimes.com/sports/story/2022-02-28/mlb-billionair…
cbssports.com/mlb/news/disney-pays-mlb-900-million…
BaseballisLife
Ma, what is sad is that the Pirates have $300 million in revenue. They can spend $100 million more and Nutting would still pocket millions.
alwaysgo4two
Definitely? No. Might be? Sure. He’s under contract so nothing definite about it. If they move him, it’ll be a mistake.
BabyBoyBlueDiamond
The longer Pittsburgh holds onto him, the lesser his value becomes. And of course they run the risk of him getting injured. Going into this season keeping him on their roster would be flat out moronic.
joshize
Considering no team is offering current value, when his value drops, those offers will still be where they are. The injury/regression point still lingers, though.
LFGSD619
No. Teams are not going to offer as much when he has one fewer year of club control.
YourDreamGM
If they are only offering 2 years worth of prospects now they or someone else will offer 2 years worth when he only has 2 years. It’s hard to pay the cost for 3 or 4 years.
deweybelongsinthehall
Maybe other teams that would like him don’t value him as high as the Pirates. To me, he’s a nice piece but not worth $20m per x 8. The Bennie deal was surprising to me but that’s about right for Reynolds in my book.
LFGSD619
He has 3 years of control. Whatever they are offering now is what they feel 3 years of Reynolds is worth. Period.
deweybelongsinthehall
Thanks Justin. In my earlier post, I forgot about those arb years. Add them in but still get the Bennie type deal in my view. Maybe one more year for $85m total.
Robertowannabe
He has 3 years now. If teams are only offering 2 years worth then why not wait till the deadline and teams are more desperate for a need and tend to overpay if there is competition for the player.
Big whiffa
Cubs gave up the top prospect in baseball for 3 months of Chapman. Then won the ws bc of it
jimthegoat
In spite of it*
LFGSD619
Teams are offering 3 years worth now. Or at least what they think 3 years of Reynolds is worth. Teams aren’t going to give up more for Reynolds at the deadline when `22% of his remaining club control has evaporated.
BaseballisLife
Reynold will make $6.75 million this season, $14-15 million in 2024, and $17-20 million in 2025 using the arbitratration projection system they use here. At the low end that is 3 years $38 million.
drtymike0509
No, teams will not offer the same packages now as they will later. Value drops with age and injury/regression as you also suggest but teams pull offers off the table and suggest new ones as the situation dictates. Just one mans opinion but I pull the trigger now and move him for the best deal I can get. 3 more years of club control, he has requested a trade with no extension in sight and he’s gonna be an old free agent when you hope to contend again. Him wanting out publicly just gave you a get out of jail free card and I would use it immediately as long as the offer is close to what I want. Now what I would want and the pirates asking price may greatly differ, but that’s neither here nor there
SouthernBuc
First, you are right with regression/injury value drops. However, if you look at the 2nd half of 2022 and full year 2021 and one could argue if he plays like that in 2023 his value could actually be higher at the trade deadline. I think years of control (kind of age) is the one constant in value reducing.
I also wonder if that is part of the challenge in an extension. Pirates (who I think will always be risk averse) are putting his value at his OVERALL current rate of production and the Reynolds camp is saying 2021 is the bench mark.
Bottom line, if does perform at a 2021 rate over the next 2-3 years then he wins the gamble on himself and will be paid significantly more (based on this years contracts) than what is on the table. Yes.. he could play like the first half of 2022 and then basically he and the Pirates both lose.
deweybelongsinthehall
Arb system needs to change so there is more risk on the player. While ore-arb players are considered underpaid, athletes choose baseball in part for the huge upside understanding the near term downside.
Edward Reilly
Thank God your not the gm with ur ideal 2 trade just 2 trade or because your scared he my get hurt an take a below package is why teams like the pirates struggle you keep talking about regression or injury what if he starts hot an puts up great numbers then the offers get better but I’m sure u will have something dumb as a come back
alwaysgo4two
Not really. His value goes up as they hold. Standard negotiation tactic. Now if he starts out next year in a miserable slump or get injured, different story.
JoeBrady
I’m curious why a players’ value would go up as they age, and as they have less service time. I think they can wait to the deadline without much concern, but if they wait a full year, certainly a player with two years of control has to be worth less than a player with three years of control.
BStrowman
Unless Reynolds turns into Juan Soto this year—he has more value now rather than later.
LFGSD619
How does his value go up as they hold? Is his club control not only evaporating and is he not only getting older?
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Before people lose their minds, I need to make a PSA. He has 3 years of arbitration eligibility. Some guy commented on the Devers thread that he set his market at 10 years 175 million by agreeing to an abr deal at 17.5. He is certainly not work 120 million at this moment. His defense is bad and his offense has been very inconsistent. To make up for certainly, he should be accepting a lower amount. Assume he makes 25 million over the next 3 years (note: this is where the trade value comes from). This is offering 95 million over his free agent years. He would be 31 in 4 seasons once he hits free agency. Unless it’s 5 or 6 more years in addition to the 3 arb ones (salary is decided for 2023), which I doubt, given that would be 8 more or 9 more years, this isn’t worth it. Really, he probably wants that over 4 free agent years, at which point no amount of inflation can justify the cost. The Pirates aren’t cheap; they are rational here. Maybe meet halfway or let Reynolds take the gamble. Surely, Grady Sizemore could have made way more if he signed a huge extension early in his career. It’s his choice, but abr greatly dilutes his leverage.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
*arb
I see it was fewer than 8 seasons total with the extension, so that’s fewer than 5 free agent seasons, and that’s an absurd premium to pay this early out. If he is asking for 120, that’s likely over the same time span. Reynolds isn’t nearly the player Olson was at the time. Olson had twice the WAR as Reynolds the year before (not that WAR is good, but it’s something).
Jaysfan1981
Are you saying Reynolds isn’t worth 4/95 when including his arb salaries?
That’s less than 25 aav.
Are you sure?
darkstar61
Assuuming you mean post Arbitration years. So 4/95 for his age 31-34 seasons?
Would you go 24/per over 4 to a post 30, not great fielding outfielder with merely a 126 OPS+ over his prime age seasons?
Only 5 hitters topped 20.3 million/per this offseason – Judge, Turner, Correa, Bogaerts and Swanson. He doesn’t belong in the conversation with those players, obviously
Reynolds lines up much more with Brandon Nimmo and Joc Pedersen over their age 24-27 seasons. Those 2 are now 30 and 31, respectively, and making about 20 million – Nimmo on an 8 year deal given to him by drunken sailor Cohen, Joc on a 1 year qualifying offer
I’d say 4/94 for his age 31-34 seasons is a huge gamble, and one I wouldn’t even begin to consider right now. He’d likely have to get much better over the next few years to top that on the free agent market 4 years from now
Reynolds is trying to capitalize off a likely fluke 146 OPS+ as a 26 year old in 2021. Interestingly, Josh Bell had that same exact age 26 season for the Pirates. He’s now signed at 2/33 for his age 30-31 seasons
Zonedeads
He is definitely better than Swanson! And the other guys could have gotten more per year but they chose longer contract lengths
Ma4170
Yeah, Nimmo would have gotten a higher AAV on a shorter deal, but Cohen was willing to go to the 8th year. Otherwise, the word was most teams were talking in the 6-130+ range. Reynolds is interesting because he’s had two very strong season, one terrible one, and one last year that was up and down and ended as more positive than not. In this market, I could easily see a Nimmo type deal for him.
darkstar61
You are missing the fact those are the only hitters to top 20.2 million
As far as OF the last 4 off seasons, only 4 have topped 20 AAV. Just 4, period, over 4 off seasons
A COF with a 120-125 OPS+ has been going for between 12-15 a year – and that is what he’ll be when he finally hits FA in 2026 as a 31 year old
There is so little upside in him that it’s not worth really signing him to an extention to cover past his age 30 seasons, but if he is to get one, those years should be in the 15 range and there shouldn’t be that many of them (hence the Pirates 70 range offer – likely around 30 for the first 3 Arb, likely 45 range for the next 3)
Zonedeads
I’m not missing anything and you are talking nothing but opinion. How do you know what his ops+ will be when he hits fa? You don’t! You’re just throwing out random opinionated gibberish
darkstar61
His OPS+ has been 125-130 as a 24-27 year old
Normal aging says it will be 120-125 post 30 years old
He won’t be a FA until he’s 31
That type of bat goes for 12-18 AAV, usually over 1-3 year commitments. This is especially true to post 31 year olds
None of that is opinion
Ma4170
Not if the market stays like it was this year. Plus you had Marte last year get 4-76. Conforto this year 2-38. Nimmo 8-162. All good comps for him. At 31, he could probably ask for a 5-100 deal and get it (maybe more if the market keeps growing for players). A 7-150 type deal now would be totally within reason in the current market (if you think he’ll maintain 120+ OPS+ type production).
BartoloHRball
Very rational response. One thing some people are undervaluing w Nimmo is he has ELITE OBP, which more clubs value. His defense in CF went from below-avg to top 15-20…not elite, but his batting and on base skills are elite. His wRC+ is 4th in MLB for CF at 137. He is ahead of Springer (135), Reynolds (127), Varsho (121), & Bellinger (92) to name a few popular guys. Reynolds is in line w. Nimmo’s deal. Also, Cohen didn’t offer the most money, Nimmo just really wanted to stay…and extending to 8yrs helped w the AAV (and tax penalties).
darkstar61
Post 30 middling talents have seen their values drop heavily from what used to be expected.
Inadvertently you just proved that by pointing to 3 better hitters/fielders/runners that managed questionable deals themselves (2 done by drunken sailor Cohen, the other a 2 year show me deal) yet STILL couldn’t top 20.2 million per
Now you can speculate all you like about how much you hope he might possibly be able to luck into years down the road. Thats your opinion and you’re entitled to it. But that has no bearing on his value as it stands today. Right now, in a possible extention counting 3 Arb years, he’s a 6/75 range guy, if they even feel he’ll be worth that much for that long moving forward
Lastly, no, I cant imagine he will be a consistent 120 guy post 30; I was being generous to him. Already I can’t find a singlr projection site thinking he’ll top 125 this season, despite being a peak age, 28 year old. My opinion is that 4 or so years from now he’s likely a role/bench bat somewhere making 10 million.
Ma4170
Interesting… I think he’ll be better than that so we’ll see. Last three years, he, Marte and Nimmo are very close production wise (126, 127, 133 OPS+ respectively… 10.4, 10.1, 9.4 WAR). I also don’t agree that OBP is valued more – it’s SLG that correlates more with runs produced, but that’s not worth a big debate. But anyway, all similar, so right around $20M a year is prob the ballpark. Those deals by Cohen weren’t drunken sailor deals AAV wise at all, just contract length. But let’s see how it plays out as to whether Reynolds can maintain this level of offense at least.
Zonedeads
He’s had a 125+ ops 3 out of 4 seasons but you’re trying to make like he’ll struggle to hit that mark
BartoloHRball
lol…darkstar61….This isn’t 10-12 years ago….an OPS+ of 120-125 is $20m+ AAV. If it is truly a bat-only like JD Martinez, then sure…<$20m AAV makes sense….but $12m-$18m…not close.
dcahen
Degrom – his defense is not bad, it’s actually above average in CF or LF. Everyone needs to stop saying trade him for a prospect or even prospects. That’s not where the Pirates are in their rebuild; they want a major league starting pitcher, capable of not already a 1, 2, or 3, so front end not back end. If they don’t get that, they won’t trade him. Maybe try again at the trade deadline, but no caving for a lesser deal.
honalieh
If you trade him it has to be to make the club better. Trading him after a trade request sets a bad precedent. Who would be next to make a trade request?
Rsox
This.
Whether Reynolds likes it or not he is under team control for the next 4 seasons and his value immediately nosedives if the Pirates make him publicly available after demanding to be traded. This isn’t the NFL or the NBA where star players make unreasonable demands and owners bend over backwards to accommodate them. In the case of the Pirates any semi-decent player they develop will employ this same strategy to get out sooner rather than later if they give in to Reynolds and trade him without getting a massive haul back
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
3, but yeah, bad precedent. If he simply doesn’t play, that lowers his value drastically, as this is unprecedented. If he demands a trade and threatens to tank, that’s almost as bad. He has to work his way to free agency just like everyone else.
RunDMC
I don’t think this guy would threaten to tank b/c he’s not getting what he wants when he’s been a 10-bWAR player since 2021 when his team has average 61.5 wins (fewest in MLB). His team has been tanking — he has not. He is THE ONLY evidence that PIT is NOT tanking. If nothing else, you don’t bad energy to taint the clubhouse and the rebuild. By all accounts, Reynolds is not the type of player that would be a threat to the rebuild, but if a team like MIA comes along and offers some high-end pitching prospects, why wouldn’t you take it to pair with mostly your position prospects (C Henry Davis, Temarr Johnson, Nick Gonzalez, OF Endy Rodriguez)?
BStrowman
Miami is deaf and dumb if they offer up prospects for Bryan Reynolds.
3 years of control for a team that has a 1% chance of being competitive in the next 2 years.
They need to find the next Bryan Reynolds in the minor leagues and trade a pitcher for that.
Moonlight Graham
Disagree. They have a fantastic rotation, with pitchers to spare. They need to strike now on offense in order to take advantage of their exciting rotation.
Bringing in Reynolds would be a big step closer toward being competitive, and a three-year window is a fair amount of time to get there. (As long as the Avisail and Soler contracts don’t prove to prohibitive.)
Even in that division, they can still fight for wild card berths.
BStrowman
@moonligjt
How can they fight for a Wild Card?
LA, SD, Philly, NY, ATL, STL
That covers all the wild cards and division champs.
That doesn’t even consider the D’Backs, Giants, Cubs, or Brewers.
They don’t need to be trading for 1 guy with less control when there’s multiple holes on that roster. They need a bullpen with a real closer, a catcher, a 1B, and a CF. At minimum.
You could poke holes elsewhere too if you wanted to.
yewed
I don’t necessarily think his value nosedives. I’m sure that teams contacted Pittsburgh about a trade after his comments but no trade has happened so far. There’s always going to be teams trying to get a “bargain”.
Even if they make him available doesn’t mean they need to trade him. Like you said, Pirates have control. No harm in listening.
This can also be looked at as a warning. He’s telling you now that he won’t sign with you unless the price changes. Does his value go up if you trade him in 2 years, the same or less?
Depends on the team and situation. Are the Pirates going to try to contend in the next 4 seasons? Is he going to make a huge difference?
yewed
No doubt it needs to make the team better. Just trading him for whatever because he asked for it wouldn’t make sense. Doesn’t mean it can’t work for both.
Not trading him just because he asks also can be a negative.
Precedent shouldn’t matter. If they can’t get together on a contract and he’ll never sign one then why not trade him while his value is high? How does keeping him for another year to prove a point and getting less for him help the team?
YourDreamGM
Players can demand trades as much as they like. They will only be traded if it makes sense to do so. They either play or don’t get paid. They can’t sit out preseason or wait months into the season before signing their franchise player offer. He could hold out forever. Bob Nutting isn’t the owner to pull this with. Doesn’t seem like a guy who is worried about winning.
Milwaukee-2208
Don’t buy this for a second. He simply doesn’t want to be associated with Pittsburgh anymore and I dont blame him
jturk
Well I’d much rather deal him for market value than be stuck with a franchise crippling Ryan Braun (cheater) or Christian Yelich deal. Don’t pretend to be better than anyone else because your (also) mediocre franchise has a few more recent winning seasons than us. Last time I checked Milwaukee has as many World Series victories as I do.
jjd002
It’s highly likely Yellich was bending/breaking the rules, too. If it weren’t for Bellinger he’d be the largest recipient of the sign stealing era.
bucsfan0004
Downvote Milwaukee-2208
Clepto_
Milw is ill-informed, and salty. Its the same logic his ex-wife used when they were then-married.
neo
I think the reporting is a bit off. Reynolds likely asked for $75 million over 3 years; Pirates countered with $24 million over 3 years. Still the same difference of roughly $50 million.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Do note he has 3 years left at arb salaries. It makes no sense to just give him 3 years when that doesn’t extend team control.
Yankee Clipper
$50MM seems like not a lot of money over which to lose your star player. I don’t see how $50MM over the course of several years could be cost prohibitive.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Consider age, arb, and the expected discount for certainty. If it’s < 8 years, that's at least a 19 million AAV and maybe even higher.
Jimbo_Jones
The Pirates have seem to have done the impossible by pissing off Reynolds and most of the FOs in the league.
They’ll probably make the third mistake by waiting until the deadline. They really should trade him to the Marlins for one of their SPs and infield prospect assuming they have one.
YankeesBleacherCreature
It’s a futile exercise without knowing the exact terms. Reynolds asking for a trade seems like a lost cause in negotiations.
Yankee Clipper
Very valid point regarding the length of contract. I also read your explanation above which makes sense too.
YBC, you’re correct as well. It’s certainly a situation that must be taken in the context in which the offer was declined. I always get fooled by the terminology “extension” because my mind always defaults to extra-arb years, when actually it’s often inclusive of arb years.
TheGreatBaseballMind
That’s because you are a conditioned Yankee fan, Yankee Clipper. It’s not to the Yankees. But the Pirates? Pirates need to trade him and the sooner the better.
Yankee Clipper
Well, I will have to disagree with you about the general principle there. It’s small-market economic shell games. They absolutely can afford it, imho. I’m not suggesting this contract is a good move, however. And, you may be correct that it may not be.
But, I listen to different retired players, executives, and managers who all opine that these teams could spend far more than they do without even breaking a sweat. The most recent was Trevor Plouffe who expounded on teams, like the Pirates, A’s, & Twins whose owners were choosing not to be competitive when they could easily spend two-to-three times as much on payroll.
So, when it comes to the “we can’t afford it excuse” I tend to be very skeptical. I believe those who are/were a part of the game and saw the inner workings of these organizations first-hand.
BStrowman
If the MLB owners were taking in that much cash wouldn’t their net worth’s be absolutely exploding just from the yearly profits? Combined with the franchise valuation gains—they’d all be billionaires 5x over if you believed all that crap.
Story has to actually make sense.
Yankee Clipper
It is actually exploding though by all accounts. The Pirates owner was worth over 1.2 Billion in 2020. If the Pirates are that bad off, how is he maintaining that type of wealth?
It’s all in their net worth and the value of the teams, which have multiplied exponentially (look at the Angels for example). Remember they don’t just stick all the money into their personal accounts. It doesn’t work like that. The money is “reinvested” in other ventures, distributed amongst ownership groups, and assumed by the “team.” Why do you think MLB profits were exponentially higher over the past ten years, up to nearly $11.5 BILLION dollars in revenue?
That story makes total sense. Pardon my frankness but you have to be ignorant to MLB economics or intentionally deceitful to say they aren’t making money hand-over-fist.
BStrowman
You have to be an idiot to not “maintain wealth” in a monopoly.
His net worth is not going to go down by owning a MLB team. Inflation alone will not allow that. It’s a 100MM-Billion dollar investment.
If you put that much money in a mutual fund the last 20 years your money would”ve grown. MLB owners are without a doubt making money.
If they were making some of the ridiculously stupid claims that people make out here—-half the billionaires would be leaving Silicon Valley to go sit on their ass and do nothing in baseball.
Yankee Clipper
I understand that and agree. My point is it’s not going to be publicized each year like a tax statement of how much their total worth is valued at. Moreover, they have the best money people in the world hiding and distributing their money for them.
Here’s a link for you to peruse if you wish. Nutting bought the Pirates 14 years ago for $92MM. It is now worth well over $1Billion. Every team is like this, and nearly every owner a billionaire whose value increased tenfold or much more by owning a team. Check it out if you want to, man.
latimes.com/sports/story/2022-02-28/mlb-billionair…
BStrowman
Looking at the S&P 500 from 2002 to 2021, the picture changes. The average stock market return for the last 20 years was 8.91%
How many in that article “beat the market” on annualized appreciation?
They very likely took in profits each year too though. They definitely make money and was a great investment to get into in the 90’s & early 2000’s. People make isht up and go to the extremes though. The franchise valuation boom is over now also. That was brought about by exploding TV deals from the crap that the teams had previously.
The Braves books are wide open now. We actually have completely accurate financial data for a competitive team.
Yankee Clipper
Here’s another by SB Nation….
sbnation.com/platform/amp/2019/10/30/20938397/bob-…
And one from 2010 showing the Pirates paid their partners over $20MM while tanking…….
espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=5484947
And another about revenue & profits increases while they commit to a process of withholding spending.
beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2020/1/30/21114…
Another research article based on the Pittsburg Gazette raking Nutting over the coals in 2022…..
marcnormandin.com/2022/04/11/the-pirates-are-makin…
And a Pitt News article from 2021 about how they could be competitive but choose profits instead
pittnews.com/article/168936/sports/point-counterpo…
Yankee Clipper
Yes, the Braves are a valid point, and they claimed the same “affordability issues” as many other teams. Coincidentally, they are one of the teams that went over the CBT threshold. And they’re still making profits, obviously, to the tune of millions. That’s not considering the approximated $15-$20MM taken in by the home team of each playoff game either.
I think we actually agree. I also believe both extremes exist and don’t buy into either side, so don’t misinterpret me to say that these teams can afford what the Yankees can. [ I’m merely speaking to Reynolds’ contract and the $50MM over 5 years or whatever. ]
BStrowman
I’m not really arguing for Bob Nutting.
Nutting is one of the bad ones. Realistically, the worst one. He sure as hell pulls a profit in on that dog of a team year after year.
Making no effort to win and being profitable is a crap system but that is a system that will essentially always occur in a monopoly. You just have to hope your team gets sold to someone who values Wins.
BStrowman
It’s no different in the NFL though.
Bob McNair is making money on the joke of a team in Houston, Texas. He will next year too even if he drafts a big old bust at QB.
Yankee Clipper
That very true. The more I see changes in baseball for “competitiveness” the more similarities I see with the NFL and I don’t like it. I know it’s intended to give hope to fans of more teams because more of the lower-tier teams are making playoffs, but I think it’s also getting quite top heavy in the league. Bad owners are bad for sports, man.
I really feel for their fans because they’re committed and passionate. They’re just stuck with a terrible owner.
Thanks for the convo, I appreciate it.
Jaysfan1981
I just find it telling that if u just simplify the math, things become bad for the owners. And this is assuming max spending everywhere, which benefits the players most
So you said MLB revenue was 11.5 BILLION, im simplifying again and assuming all clubs get equal revenue share.
Now assuming all clubs spent 250 million on payroll (which still would never happen) that’s 8 billion, leaving 3.5 billion profits???
Simplify again, 32 teams, 3.2 billion profits split is 100 million per owner spending 250 Million on payroll or even 250 million in operating expenses if u throw in stadium leases etc
Yea, that’s why I expect Rogers to spend 250 this year. That’s why I’d be mad if im a Reds or Pirates fan.
Dunno what the answer is because each side knows the math but it’s the fans who are paying these profits one way or another
BStrowman
Baseball salaries are not the only expense a baseball team has. They fund these minor league teams. There’s draft bonuses, international bonuses, coaches salaries, front office salaries, field staff salaries, benefits, leases, debt service payments etc.
Who do you think pays to fly the players around from game to game? Clubhouse meals. There’s a ton of other expenses that go along with a baseball team.
The Braves books are actually open for you to see a snapshot of what a team actually spends on.
It’s like some people never looked at financial statements before.
BStrowman
Yeah, clip. I don’t think we’re very far off in our views. I was taking about some of the mindless nonsense I see people write that makes no sense.
Bad owners are a hazard in professional sports. I don’t know what the solution is for that. You can’t really get these guys out. It’s not as easy as don’t show up for the games because a team like Pittsburgh can make money whether you put your butt in a seat or not.
You just have to hope the owner makes enough money and gets tired of hearing how cheap he is and wants to sell the team—I suppose. Then hope the next guy wants to build a winning team and not just an investment.
There might be someone as rich as Steve Cohen out there that simply loves baseball and has a ton of money & simply doesn’t care if he doesn’t make a cent on his team. Most billionaires aren’t going to be like that though. Nor they should have to spend billions and not make any money. But as a fan, that’s got to be a great thing to see a guy who will do whatever.
Yankee Clipper
Well said, Strowman, I agree. It should be somewhere in the middle. I think for baseball the answer *might be* simply dividing up the revenue at a greater percentage (it’s currently 48% of team revenue goes to the whole league) in a progressive format, depending on how much teams make. Then, you can assign the exact same tax penalties (but in reverse) to the teams that spend under a certain threshold, although it wouldn’t be a hard floor either. Then you have teams that can spend like Cohen, but when they do, more of the tax penalty money goes to the lower revenue-generating teams, so it helps them too.
To be clear, I don’t like that idea, but I also think a cap is ineffective as demonstrated in other sports. It’s a false sense of competition. So, imo, they should have no cap, but have a greater percentage of the TV revenue (say…60%, instead of 48%) to the lower teams, with tax penalties in the lower end that mirror the upper end. So teams can dip below it, but are penalized as well.
In this way, there are no hard limits on spending, no hard limits on profits, no hard caps on salaries, and the lower revenue-generating teams are provided some greater supplemental market share. It’s really the only thing I can think of honestly.
Jaysfan1981
I understand. We’re on the same team on this subject. But I don’t get why you assume I’ve never seen a balance sheet before
I also said 17 different times in the post im simplifying this as much as possible and even put a Caveat of building leases etc.
Everyone here just trying to 1 up everyone. Getting tired of posting here for this reason to be honest.
Contribute to the topic with logical thoughts. Get treated like a child after waking up and reading garbo
BStrowman
Well, a balance sheet isn’t the first thing I’d look at for an MLB team! Income statement would tell you a better story if you only could pick 1.
But it doesn’t do any good to simplify something like that.
Player salaries excluding benefits were X and teams revenues were X.
All that is gonna do is make people run with that crap and say “owners are cheap.”
Because a lot of people do not understand finances even a little bit.
Yankee Clipper
Jaysfan: I apologize if you thought I was responding to your post – I wasn’t. The way these replies are structured in these boards sometimes appear to read as though it’s a reply when it isn’t. I made the mistake of deriding BelongtotheReds last week and had to apologize because I completely misinterpreted his response to another’s post (and I was abrasive).
But, I thought your post made sense and I understood the analogy you were using by generalizing the mathematical terms. Sorry for the confusion though, I try to include the name of the subject to whom I am responding to avoid it.
calibucsfan
There is a difference between being able to afford it and being CHEAP. Nutting is CHEAP. which is officially the worst quality to have in a billionaire owner. Proof is in the Burgh.
YourDreamGM
They can easily afford 50 million more. The Pirates had a 100 million ish payroll for 3 years. Other small market teams have had 120 130 million so they should be able to do that as well. I don’t know how much more a team could do. Teams generally don’t go without making a profit except maybe Cohen or the Tigers owner when he hit the 2 minute warning. A 1.2 billion worth is poor for a team owner. Most of that worth is the team which he would need to sell to have money to spend recklessly. His other operation is owning small newspapers. I don’t know about you but I have zero money invested into the newspaper business.
50 million is a huge difference. Springer at same age got 150 million and had to go to Toronto to get it. Even with spending and inflation I wouldn’t want to give Reynolds 200. Wouldn’t want to give him 150. More than Hayes and still 50 million off sounds like a pass to me. They have him until he turns 31. He’s a lf only. Likely a under 800 ops player during his free agent contract. Easy pass.
This one belongs to the Reds
Reds payroll projected to be 80 million. Their max payroll was 130 million a few years ago. They still are paying Ken Griffey Jr. 3.6 million in deferred contract until 2024 which makes him the third highest paid player right now.
So they could afford both Cueto and Wacha along with some bullpen arms and maybe a center fielder since they have spent 50 million more in the past.
That’s why Reds fans are disgusted with Bob even with the revenue disparity in baseball they have dealt with.
Ma4170
This is the point to me. The Pirates were at or around $100M in 2016-17. So they can do it. And that would probably equate to 120-30M now I would think. Whether they want to raise payroll significantly for someone like Reynolds is a different story.
neo
Yet the biggest contracts the Pirates have given out have been Hayes’ recent $70 million over eight years, and before that Jason Kendall at $60 million over six. In that context, $50 million is an enormous expenditure.
For some people going out to a restaurant once a month or in a year is a big deal. To others, it’s just another day.
Jimbo_Jones
The padres along with several other teams offered the pirates half a team worth of prospects for him without a deal. I recall the pirates wanted gore which was a non-starter. I realize he’s good but what do the pirates really expect. Now he doesn’t even want to be there…WTH
mlb1225
Honestly, $50 million is a lot closer than I thought they’d be on negotiations.
Yankee Clipper
Agreed. I hope they make it work. I’d love to see a lifetime Pitt guy for the fans (assuming they care about that as well).
mlb1225
In the grand scheme of things, $50 million isn’t a large gap, but for ownership, that gap might as well be the grand canyon. Still holding out hope something gets done, but not holding my breath. We’ll see what happens.
Yankee Clipper
I hope for your sake it does, man. He’s a great player and any team would obviously love to have him. I’d love to see the Bucs come back in 70s style and underdog it back to the WS.
YourDreamGM
I think the negotiations were over once he mad his unhappiness known to the public.
fre5hwind
Pirates are so bad at management.
calibucsfan
It’s also possible that that was leaked by his representation to affect negotiations with the Pirates. Fact of the matter is, it’s all speculation because none of us were in the room.
jonathanh1020
All I know is if he gets traded to the Braves. He is signed to maybe 150 mil for about 7 years, and everyone will say that’s a steal . Pirates should just sign him for that much in my view .
Jimbo_Jones
I wanna say it’s just above 175 for 8 years that team Reynolds is looking for
jonathanh1020
You may be right
YankeesBleacherCreature
That really depends on where the Pirates see themselves over the next few years. No one knows. They can also use that money to sign pitching if they want a shot at the playoffs.
Jimbo_Jones
I’m not saying it’s a good idea for the Pirates and I believe it’s way out of their comfort zone. But I definitely think Reynolds wants and believes he worth the price tag. Does anyone think he has unreasonable expectations?
YourDreamGM
Not at all. It was a joke of a offer. Actually insulting. Reynolds should be upset and demanding a trade. It’s obvious a 31 year old free agent wants a contract that will pay him into his mid late 30s. A under 100 million dollar offer is a insult to Reynolds and his agents intelligence.
Jimbo_Jones
@YDGM I was referring to what I believe they’re looking for (hypothetically) 175+ 8 years. I completely agree based on stats alone he should break 100 but close to 200 seems large but this market…
YourDreamGM
I wouldn’t even want to break 150. But less than a 100 is a insult to team Reynolds. I think 150 would have got it done. Maybe even 130.
Ma4170
If he wants to play there, a 7-150 offer should be enough to get it done, but who knows if he really wants to.
SocoComfort
And who are the Braves going to give up in a trade to make Pittsburg agree to the trade?
LFGSD619
Oof
YankeesBleacherCreature
@Jimbo_Jones
YankeesBleacherCreature
I think every good player should aim high. I have no idea what Reynolds wants. It could also be a ploy by an agent to get a disgruntled player out of Pittsburgh. It seems to me the Pirates have capped their offer.
Jimbo_Jones
@YBC totally agree with everything you said. We really don’t get to the Pirates play that often. Besides his stats I don’t have a eye test on him. Is he really worth this kind of commitment? I won’t ask the money due to the crazy contracts lately. Sounds like a potential Hosmer deal.
Phil253
The rumor is that the m’s checked in last season on his availability and they asked for Julio, which is laughably high for Reynolds. It’s also not hard to see that Reynolds, by his play alone ain’t happy with his current situation. I don’t doubt that his asking for an extension is to feel out their commitment to winning in the near future and it’s obvious they’re not… they’ve made the playoffs once for one game and have started their drought over again. As an m’s fan I’d love to have Reynolds, Kelenic has shown with two big sample chunks that he’s not going to have the plate discipline. If the Pirates don’t deal Reynolds this off season he’s just going to phone in another season and play well enough to be wanted by another team and his trade stock will fall.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Like @Jimbo, I don’t watch many Pirates games and haven’t seen much of Reynolds play. But you can definitely read some players on the field so you may certainly be right.
YourDreamGM
He just wants paid. He knows the future is bright.
JM412
“Phone in another season” so you’re implying he phoned in last season? How many pirates games did you watch last year? Reynolds didn’t “phone in” a single at bat. The guy plays very hard. Did he show frustration at times? Yes, but that’s because he wants to win. This is a guy they should be building around. He’s not a vocal leader by any means, but he shows up every day and puts forth his best effort.
jonathanh1020
How much would it take for the Braves to get Reynolds . Grissom and Ian Anderson plus top 5 prospect?
YourDreamGM
That’s close if they think Grissom is a ss and like Anderson. If not it will take multiple high upside prospects.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I assume it was for fewer years than Hayes so the AAV would be much higher but the total was also $70M or maybe a token amount more like 7 years/$80.5M
YourDreamGM
It’s was under 100 million so you can’t be too far off. He probably gets what around 30 million before free agency. Not shocking they were 50 million off.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Either way, Reynolds would be doing himself a disservice to accept anything less than 8 years at this point, with 2 years left of arbitration, and no less than $100M over those 8 years.
I think if he got traded to a club with a healthier budget who wanted to extend him ASAP, I imagine 8 years/$120M would in fact get it done.
YourDreamGM
Maybe so. I know if I was pretty certain to get 30 million, it would take much more than 50 million to get me to not gamble to get 150 million. 120 makes it a hard decision.
Jimbo_Jones
@TTO If it were up to me I would be around 5 or 6 years tops with options like a team option at 4 but I think the dollars are close.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
So you’d only give him a 3 or 4 year free agent deal?
johndietz
I’m sure the Bucs are hoping for a big first half so they can get mad value for him
YourDreamGM
I disagree. Sure they are hoping for a brutal or injury plagued first half.
algionfriddo
Pretty good hitter but not special. Good LF’er and can help short term in CF, but much better in the left. Not a fulltime CF’er. The Pirates are in a difficult spot here. Take the best offer before he shows to be fool’s gold. Yanks should not give up top prospects for him.
YourDreamGM
Hope the other teams gms don’t see this comment before Pittsburgh can dump him on them.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Absolutely! Reynolds is a very nice player, but he’s a long way off from being the second coming of Mays, Mantle, Trout or Joe D..
Gotta strike while the iron is hot. The booty for him will take a big nose dive if all he does in 2023 is something like: .270 17 70. Again, decent enough number, but not worth a rival GM blowing up his farm system to acquire him.
BartoloHRball
Reynolds isn’t asking for $50m AAV….which is what Mays, Mantle, Trout, Ohtani can realistically ask for in today’s game. The Pirates want him at a discount and fair market value for Reynolds will be around Nimmo/Springer. He isn’t a superstar, but he puts up borderline all-star numbers and is a multi-tool player.
Luke Strong
The Pirates should be moved out of Pittsburgh. The market there is unsustainable for a baseball team. Pittsburgh is just too small and not well off enough on the whole to sustain a successful franchise there in this modern, uncapped league. The Pirates cannot possibly evolve when they can’t afford to keep their best players for longer than their first 4 seasons.
Poster formerly known as . . .
You might want to see where Pittsburgh ranks among MLB cities in TV market size.
sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-n…
In 2014 and 2015, when the Pirates were competitive, they ranked 15th in total attendance and were tied with the Yankees in 9th place in attendance percentage:
espn.com/mlb/attendance/_/year/2015/sort/homePct
YourDreamGM
With revenue sharing it’s absolutely sustainable. Just unlikely to have sustainable winning. But half the other teams are like that as well. Still one of the 30 best baseball cities. They aren’t going anywhere.
Buuba ho tep
The pirates have the best ball park in the majors. They will NOT be moved. Nutting will sell before anything else. Also Reynolds will be traded, I hope not. But he will be. I see the pirates being better this year. Hovering around 75 -80 wins. Then 2024 will be the turn around year. But as one of the oldest franchises, being moved is foolish thinking.
bkbk
STOP with the Pirates should be moved out Pittsburgh nonsense. Bob Nutting is the problem all these owners pull their profits OUT of the teams instead of reinvesting like almost every other modern industry. St. Louis has almost the amount of people as Pittsburgh. Dont let them fool you, they have a bad product, worse distribution strategy and no one seems to care.
These greedy owners are shortsighted too. Having these small market teams invest may raise salary, but it should also expand the price of broadcast deals and all other types of revenue.
Heres to hoping the Steve Cohen effect means we will never have another broke boi owner in any of these cites.
YourDreamGM
St Louis isn’t a good comp. Bigger fan capacity. A history of winning. No NFL. Baseball is #1 their. Pirates are #3 in Pittsburgh.
bkbk
Thats the point. St. Louis has invested and win. Pittsburgh has done neither. Markets dont just reward out of thin air, except maybe the Cubs
66TheNumberOfTheBest
St. Louis is the default team of most of the Midwest and a good chunk of the Southeast. Their footprint is huge.
The Pirates are squeezed by CLE, PHI, BAL, etc and basically have Western PA and half of WV as their market.
Anyone who just looks at the actual city limits of a media market and says “see, there the same!” should sit and listen to this conversation, not participate in it.
Also, if Nutting spends another $50 million, Cohen will spend another $200 million, so what’s the incentive to do that?
Baseball is kabuki theater, not a sport. Real sports in the modern age have salary caps.
bkbkbkbk
Lol, what a loser attitude. “We’re not good today, so we can never be.” The Angels we’re the same and then they won from 2002-2012 and are consistently a top 5 revenue team. Brewers did it.
Pitt also does about as much revenue as the White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Rockies and, drumroll… Padres.
Your fundamental idea that because something is one way today it must be that way always isn’t just wrong, it’s depressing.
The owner doesn’t invest in his team and so it doesn’t grow. That’s the whole headline condescending boi.
Poster formerly known as . . .
So Cherington says Reynolds is so valuable that he wants a king’s ransom in return if he agrees to trade him — but he’s not so valuable that he wants to pay him a king’s ransom.
“Fascinating, Captain.”
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Btw he hasn’t lost any money yet by being on the Pirates. His 2 year/$13.5M deal to buy out the first two years of arbitration isn’t that far off from what he’d have earned if he’d gone year to year. Might’ve earned like $5M and $9M or something at most if he’d gone year to year, but more likely $4.5M and $8.5M.
But if they try to get him to sign like 1 year/$8M or 2 years/$16M to buy out his remaining arbitration years he’d be losing out on around $8M to $18M depending on how the next two seasons went.
He deserves to be traded, even if the Pirates aren’t obligated to trade good players to competitive clubs, they shouldn’t be effectively stealing money from those players. Even the Rays pay guys pretty fairly through arbitration.
SteveM7
Unsurprising, to say the least.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Just trade the guy and be done with it. Bucs don’t wanna pay him big cheese. Reynolds doesn’t want to be there. Can anyone spell D-I-V-O-R-C-E? Couples have split up for far lesser reasons.
To wit, why prolong the misery? When your gut tells you it’s over, it’s probably over.
Marlins have young pitchers they can deal. They need a CF. Voila! A match made in heaven.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
People keep missing who has the leverage.
Reynolds will be unhappy if he has to stay a Pirate? So what?
What’s he doing to do? Have a bad season and cost himself millions in the long run?
Meanwhile, Nutting doesn’t care if the team wins, so Reynolds can be good or bad and it doesn’t matter to him.
Cherington should set a high price for him and hope he isn’t a deviant bound for prison. Wait out a desperate team.
This one belongs to the Reds
It’s the only way a small market can try to compete. Sell off their best players before free agency for the biggest prospect haul they can get and hope they thrive as stars for that 3-4 year period before they have to sell them off too instead of becoming suspects.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Nutting is another cheapskate billionaire owner like Fisher out in Oakland. When the Pirates were competitive seven years ago, they were middle-of-the-pack in attendance. Their TV market is a larger one than San Diego’s, and the Padres were 5th in payroll last year. Explain why the Pirates’ payroll should have been 29% of San Diego’s last year.
StudWinfield
I would suggest that this info is being revealed in order to give interested teams more confidence in what it will take to extend him (if only on a short term deal). The best trade is going to include an upper 100 prospect (say top 15). Reynolds isn’t a superstar but 3 yrs of cost control, ability to play CF the next few yrs and, now, an outline of what contract negotiations are, really improve his overall value. His peak trade value is probably the 12 months between the ’23 and ’24 trade deadlines. The quantity of return might decline but the quality of the center piece prospect should remain steady for the next year and a half.
darkstar61
If anything, that info may dissuade them from wanting to go through the drama with him themselves
Reynolds will not be a free agent until he’s 31. Teams are much more aware and cautious of the post 30 decline than in years past. And other than 2021, he hasn’t been all that great as a 24-27 year old
His asking is out of whack with his age and production, and everyone knowing that will quite likely hurt his trade value now
StudWinfield
I’m not sure 6 yrs/$120 mil is “out of whack”, particularly if he’s able to play an average CF for at least half that time. 5yrs/$120 mil is certainly getting up there but there’s value in losing risk on the backend.
darkstar61
It’s completely out of whack considering the first 3 seasons of it he is under Arbitration control
He will likely get somewhere in the 25-30 range for the next 3 seasons combined
That means 6/120 is really 3/90 for the 3 added Free Agency seasons bought out
30 million per for the age 31-33 seasons to a guy who is worth about 20 if he were on the free agent market now?
And 5/120 would actually be about 2/90 (45 million per) for the 2 Free Agent seasons bought. Seriously?
Simm
If through arb years he gets 3/25. Let’s say the offer was at most 7/120. That would mean they would buyout 4 years of free agency. 25-120=95
4/95 = 23.75m per season. That’s about all he is worth. This is the least he asked for and probably more than the pirates offered.
My guess is the pirates offered him something like 25 arb money plus 15m per over 4 free agent years. Which would be a total of 85m. That’s a record deal for the pirates but Reynolds’s prob wanted 50m more which would be like 8/135.
8/135-25m arb would be buying 5 years of free agency at 5/110. 22m a year which is once again the top of what I think he is worth.
The pirates only are going to want to do an extension so early if they are getting a discount vs what he would get in free agency. So the 7/85 makes some sense. From Reynolds’s side I could see where the 8/135 also makes some sense. Maybe the split the difference and do 8/110-120m.
Honestly Reynolds’s should prob take the best offer he can get from the pirates because there is a lot of risk of him regressing and becoming a 31 year old free agent that doesn’t get a ton. Specially since his defense isn’t going to help him get paid and likely has to move out of center reducing his value.
This is also why he would want to be traded right now hoping the team that acquired him would give him a deal now for around 8/135.
Pirates hold all the cards over Reynolds’s because of the years of control and age. The pirates can ask for a good return for him but the whole Soto type trade is crazy.
Yanks2
Imagine being a superstar but you’re on the Pittsburgh Pirates
Buuba ho tep
Clemente, stargell, mazerosli, honus Wagner, kiner, loyd and Paul Warner, the list goes on
Buuba ho tep
Oh and of course pie traynor
utah cornelius
But he’s not a superstar.
LarsAnderson
Give a big round of applause to my band sexual chocolate
Gwynning's Anal Lover
DFA Reynolds.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Here is what I have noticed. People regularly write about excessive CEO compensation regardless of performance. Many companies are public and stock-owners are commoners who complain. Baseball teams are owned by private investors who are rich, and thus, we fall for players’ “punch up” mentality of demonizing billionaires. However, we are literally no different from them. Players > us, and owners > players. We shouldn’t treat players any differently than they treat owners. Players are like CEOs, except they make money for playing games and CEOs make money for thinking. We want fair returns on the stock market, and so do owners.
Scott Kliesen
In this age of MLB Economics, Pirates are smart to deal their better arb eligible players and invest in pre-arb eligible players like they did with Hayes. If I’m Nutting, I’d look to invest in Cruz, Contreras, and Endy before Reynolds.
Let Cohen, Steinbrenner, and other large market Owners pay premium prices for the declining production of 30+ year old players. They can afford it. Pirates and other small market teams are smart to have continuous roster churn towards younger high ceiling players.
Clepto_
Wonderful: nearly every word you said is based on your opinion. Here is a free PSA, for your benefit. Details of negotiations are kept internal. While you may be reading “news”, it is loaded with opinion, bias, and likely sourced from (as you said yourself) one side only.
Then, you added your color (much like agents and players do): tearful departful may be fact but lowballed and insulted are YOUR opinions, nothing more. Fact of the matter is two sides could agree on a value. And, as I originally said, you werent in that room listening in.
As for GMs in large vs small markets….I literally laughed out loud and thus, you proved my very first statement.
JoeBrady
The Vanderbilt product has no recourse to force a trade.
===========================
That is over-the-top ridiculous. They have a CBA. Every year, 10% of the league plays out their option and enters free agency. Sometimes they re-sign, and maybe 90% they leave.
Is Reynolds the only player out of the 780 players out there that doesn’t have to follow the rules? That statement is pure idiocy.
joew
Pirates are pulling out of a rebuild. 2024 has been the real target date. though with better signings they could have pulled out of the basement in 2022 that has to be frustrating for players.
as of right now i would have no problem giving him a 7 year deal 120m guarantee deal buying out the rest of arb with an opt out clause on year 4 or Bryan based on team record.
Team record Opt out based on previous two years record. If the team isn’t fully out of the rebuild phase by then, they have to tear it all down again.
If Reynolds is pulling closer to 2021 numbers at the break I would have no problem with a 7 year 145M deal + option(s) bonuses and a similar opt out and a front loaded contract. I would also have a ceiling of 160m.
If that isn’t good enough for him (and it should be). He is a well above average player in general but hasn’t played well enough over all to be a 25m AAV guy. his trade value rests in his ‘cheap’ control.
Of course you know that is just my opinion man.
joew
after seeing a couple other recent contracts slightly modifying my thoughts on the matter. i think a 7year 22m AAV seems like a sweet spot with giving him the opt out and a partial no trade. add in an option of some sort at the end with a smaller price tag like 15m/4m buy out if applicable.
Then move him back to left field where he is much better
CarverAndrews
Wow – there is a lot of hot air on this thread. ; )
Here is my hot “air” take:
* Agree that Nutting is a terrible owner for Pittsburgh, and it is a shame for a once proud franchise. And yes, the small markets can afford to spend much more on payroll than some do as a routine.
* Reynolds is overrated by many…a good player, but hardly elite. If he held up as a high quality defensive CF things would be different, but as a corner OF his offensive output is average plus…very solid but not AS level stuff for the most part.
*His highest value right now is still to the Pirates, and they should figure this out. Retain the occasional hometown hero, and he would help to anchor them in a bid to get better. As well as help to change their awful narrative. That alone is worth millions.
* His best trading partner is a very competitive, large market team that is willing to overspend and overpay in prospect value to fill their largest remaining hole. Yankees and Rangers fit that narrative.
* And Reynolds should be careful as well, as he risks some reputational downturn the closer that he gets to FA. In three years, he might be seen as simply a solid option in the corner with a bat that is not a difference-maker. That could cost him quite a bit of money. He MIGHT get better, but chances are that he is kinda’ who he is right now. And he is going to be an older FA so that also complicates matters.
Would I take him on the Phils? Sure…he makes us better if we move one of our DH style corner OF to first / DH and improve our defense. Would I give up the premium prospects for him. Nope.
waldfee
According to Spotrac, Reynolds current market value sits at $156M/8 years.
An offer of 30% under market value is nothing but an insult to the player. Once again, the Pittsburgh Cheapskates are testing out new lows.
darkstar61
That number is frankly silly if it’s expected as a contract
If that’s what he is asking/expecting though, then the best course for any team is to give him the roughly 30 million he’ll make the last 3 years of Arbitration, then let him walk
At that point he can see if he lands his remaining 5/126 (25.2 per) as a 31 year old corner outfielder with a roughly 125 OPS+ bat
Realistically, if he was forced to take that path instead, he might be lucky to top 100 million total over the next 8 seasons
JoeBrady
It’s pricey, but close. It buys out his control years and extends him for $125M/5. Given that the Pirates would be taking a 3-year risk that he doesn’t decline or get injured, prior to FA, my guess is make it the control years for $30M + $100M/5. He doesn’t strike me as a high-risk player, and they’d only be paying him thru age 35.
darkstar61
A Corner OF with 120-125 OPS+ bat goes for 12-18 million a season, usually over 1-3 year deals
That is what he’ll be when he finally hits free agency in 2026
The idea of giving him a pre-arbitration deal that pays him 5/125 starting at his age 31 season is needing to be committed territory lunacy
Most likely, he’ll average 15 million or less after 2026. That means 8/105 is more like it, but he doesn’t have the upside to warrent a team taking that big of a chance on him right now
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
This is misinformation. He is under arbitration for 3 more years. Subtract 3 years and 25 million. Stop spreading lies. He can’t become a free agent.
acoss13
I think it’s a shame Pittsburgh can’t lock up a core member of this rebuild to build upon the talent coming up. They don’t have to spend 200 million dollars a year on payroll, but I’m sure they can hover in the 150 million range.
Mike Werner
There is a sizeable amount of conjecture here based on what has been reported. I hope as a Pirate’s fan that the two sides can come to an eventual agreement. If as has been reported, the sides are $50 mil apart, I would venture to guess that the difference is not based primarily on AAV, but on contract length.
Given the players age, and remaining three years of control, it makes sense that the pirates may offer a 6 year deal now. It also makes sense that Reynolds would look for 8+ years taking him through his age 37 season. From the team’s perspective, why extend now and assume a disproportionate risk of injury or regression.
As for bashing Pittsburgh, well, have at it. It is a beautiful city with great people. They could spend more on the roster, but need to spend it wisely. The Pirates can not overcome mistakes financially. The margin for error in small market baseball is finer than for teams with greater resources.
stwawk
More than any other MLB team, the Pirates exist for one sole reason – to line the pockets of the ownership. Until MLB steps in and does something, the Pirates will continue to field the cheapest possible team they can get away with fielding, trade away all their home grown talent once they get into late arbitration years and let their best players walk. If anything, the Pirates function as a pool of young mlb talent from which all other teams can exchange for their undesirables. I feel bad for Bucs’ fans, but I don’t foresee any of this changing any time soon.
cwsOverhaul
“Stwawk”……lot of truth, but without a hard cap on the top end, many clubs act in its rational interest to be frugal for large chunks of time until its FO has compiled enough young affordable talent to legitimately contend for a modest window of time (extend guys to early/not mid to late 30s if the player wants security, take on a pricey veteran in trade, sign a strategic FA the Goliaths aren’t compelled to outbid you on, etc). Sure the Mlbpa wants to shame every club to spending unwisely in this economically unbalanced league, but you take the bad with the good. Major metro markets can spend its way to playoffs pretty much every year to line the union pockets…..while others have to be very detailed and business-oriented. Some owners are going to be every bit as economically selfish as an unrestricted FA when they hold the cards.
HistoryBelongstotheVictorsInArms
Seems like this guy doesn’t wanna be a useful veteran leader for this team when it rounds into competitive form in the coming years.
No matter the offer his camp would’ve likely continued to push the FO just beyond their comfort zone to ensure an extension wouldn’t happen.
No sour grapes though. Guy has given some great seasons on the field and likely feels a bit antsy with his 30’s approaching and no playoff baseball of note.
You’d always like to see things kept in house but it’s not like he came out pouring on the organization.
Go and get Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett, and Griffin Conine and call it a day!
Edward Reilly
The pirates have years of control Reynolds is in his prime an playing for his next contract that’s not with Pittsburgh his value will stay an the pirates have no reason to sell low just to trade for the sake of trading good offers will be there at the deadline they always are an u get a better return when teams are pushing for playoffs
pirateking24
Reynolds looks good on a team full of below average players. Any other team would probably have him as a 2nd or 3rd CF .
BaseballisLife
Reynolds is looking at more than doubling his very team friendly 2023 salary in arbitration next winter and going up into the $17-20 million range for his 4th year of eligibility. That is WAY outside the Nutting salary range so either Nutting is selling the team or Reynolds is being traded before the deadline this season.
rightwingrick
Seattle Mariners send their Minor League Pitcher of the Year (Taylor Dollard, 25-6 in last two years).
Seattle Mariners send their Minor League Hitter of the Year (Robert Perez, Jr, .288/.398/.921 OPS, 27 HR, 114 RBI, 100 R in 2022). (Pittsburgh has aging vets at the position)
Seattle Mariners send MLB SP Chris Flexen (22-15, 3.68 ERA, 1.29 WHIP over the last two years in Seattle)
Seattle Mariners send MLB RP Penn Murfee (4-0, 2.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 69 IP, 48 H, 76 K)
Seattle sends former Cincinnati #1 outfield prospect (and San Diego #2 prospect) Taylor Trammel.
In return, Seattle receives OF Bryan Reynolds and 2B prospect Nick Gonzales..
rico1957
Sad and ugly truth, Reynolds is asking for a trade in hopes of getting paid …….. now. Nimmo did, 8 years 162 million. That was a “free agent” contract for a true center fielder in a very large media market by an owner willing to overpay. Reynolds is not a free agent for 3 more years and he is a true left fielder. 3 years starting at 6.75 million this year and maybe another 23 million for last 2 arb years(30 million total). Sticking point being if 4 free agency years are acquired at 15-18 million each for left field you are still topping out at 90-102 million for 7 years. Maybe tack on a team option for 8th year, will get deal close to 120 million, or a couple mil buyout for a washed up 36 year old left fielder. Wanting free agent pay for arb years does not happen in small markets. He is stuck between that rock and a hard place. Does it suck? Yes! But expecting free agent money still playing arb years is a pipe dream.
Em 2
They should trade him and save the money for when they are competitive to add pieces. Reynolds is not any generational talent worth breaking the bank for. Or see if you can lock up Cruz and get some pitching from the marlins for reynolds.
3Rivers
Their payroll is now up in the 60s close to 70 I think. Still ridiculous.
But it’s not barely over 40.
100m shouldn’t be a problem for them Plain and simple. 100 is extremely doable but Nutting refuses.
He regularly does a disservice to Pirates and the city.
Look at San Diego.
the Cardinals, the Brewers.
there is no GD excuse. And he won’t sell.
So he’s got the dam city by the balls and it sucks.