Mariners Acquire Justin Topa

The Mariners announced a swap of right-handers, as Justin Topa was acquired from the Brewers in exchange for minor leaguer Joseph Hernandez.

Topa has pitched in each of the last three MLB seasons, albeit in the limited fashion of 18 1/3 innings over 17 total games.  The righty has an 8.35 ERA for his brief career, thanks to two particularly disastrous outings in 2021 that saw Topa charged with nine earned runs over 1 1/3 frames of work.

A flexor tendon strain sidelined Topa for most of the 2021 season, and flexor tendon surgery resulted in another trip to the 60-day injured list last season.  Since the start of the 2021 campaign, Topa has thrown only 45 1/3 total innings in the majors and minors (10 2/3 IP in MLB, 34 2/3 in the minors).  Injury absences have unfortunately been the story of a career that began as a 17th-round pick for the Pirates in the 2013 draft, as Topa has previously undergone two Tommy John surgeries.

Between all the health issues and even brief drops out of affiliated baseball (Topa played for indy ball teams for parts of the 2017 and 2018 seasons), Topa is a hard player to evaluate as he enters his age-32 season.  However, he immediately drew attention as a possible late-blooming gem when he made his MLB debut in 2020, and posted a 2.35 ERA with 12 strikeouts and no walks over his first 7 2/3 innings.  This performance earned Topa a spot on Milwaukee’s postseason roster, and he threw two scoreless innings in his lone appearance.

A hard-thrower who averaged 97.5mph on his fastball in that debut season, Topa’s velocity fell to a 95.7mph average over the last two seasons.  While we’re dealing with small sample sizes all around in these three brief bits of Major League exposure for Topa, his injury situation explains the velo drop, and the next step will be seeing if he can regain any velocity now that the flexor tendon issue seems to be behind him.

The Mariners were intrigued enough by Topa to spend a 40-man roster spot on him, and Seattle also parted ways with a 22-year-old coming off a breakout season at single-A.  Hernandez posted a 3.39 ERA over 116 2/3 innings in 2022, with an impressive 29.4% strikeout rate but an underwhelming 11.1% walk rate.  This does at least represent some improved control from earlier in Hernandez’s career, and the righty’s swing-and-miss numbers indicated how dangerous he could be with improved command.

Hernandez started 22 of 24 games in 2022, and the Brewers will certainly continue to give the right-hander chances as as a starting pitcher.  If the control problems persist, Hernandez’s ultimate future (and path to the big leagues) might come as a reliever, and he possesses an excellent slider that could be even more devastating in a limited role.