The Diamondbacks and Blue Jays combined on one of the winter’s biggest trades back in December, though for all of the attention the deal received, much more focus was (understandably) placed on the involvement of Daulton Varsho and Gabriel Moreno than on the fact that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was now headed to Arizona. Varsho is a very promising young player and already an ace defender, while Moreno is arguably baseball’s best prospect — with all these future potential in mind, it isn’t necessarily surprising that Gurriel was something of an afterthought.
It wasn’t that long ago that Gurriel was himself a sought-after young talent, when he defected from Cuba in 2016 and signed a seven-year, $22MM deal with Toronto later that year. He made his MLB debut in April 2018 at age 24 and has since carved out a solid career for himself over five seasons in the Show, yet in some ways, Gurriel has been hampered by those initial high expectations. Though Gurriel has been much better than many prospects (both international and from the domestic draft) over the years who carried a lot more hype, having “only” a solid career to date has perhaps been a little underwhelming considering how good Gurriel has looked when he has been in top form.
Gurriel’s .285/.329/.468 slash line and 68 homers over 1864 career MLB plate appearances translates to a 115 wRC+, well above the league average. He has consistently delivered good (and in 2020, elite) hard-hit ball rates, and his barrel rates were similarly pretty consistent before plummeting downwards in 2022. While Gurriel doesn’t walk much, his strikeout and whiff rates have steadily improved over the last four seasons, with Gurriel topping out in the 78th percentile of all hitters in K% and in the 71st percentile in whiff rate last year.
With all this in mind, however, Gurriel has amassed only 6.2 fWAR over his 468 big league games. For comparison’s sake, Varsho has 7.1 fWAR over 283 games and 1022 PA, with 4.6 fWAR coming in the 2022 season alone. Defense accounts for much of Varsho’s advantage, as Gurriel has been roughly an average left fielder since the start of the 2019 season, when factoring in all of the public defensive metrics. Defensive Runs Saved (+4) likes Gurriel’s outfield work, while UZR/150 (-2.7) and especially Outs Above Average (-16) have been a lot less impressed. It is worth noting, however, that Gurriel was a finalist for the AL left field Gold Glove in both 2020 and 2021, somewhat in defiance of the mixed reviews from the metrics.
Glovework has been an element of Gurriel’s big league career from the start, as the Blue Jays initially hoped he could be a shortstop prospect or at least a second baseman, but he struggled badly as an infielder. Fortunately for both Gurriel and the Jays, a position change to left field allowed him to settle in both as a defender and at the plate, even if it limited Gurriel’s overall value in the long term. As he heads into his age-29 season, Gurriel has only moderate defensive utility as a passable left fielder and as a part-time first baseman, though his solid arm strength suggests that he might be an option in right field (a position he has never played in the majors).
Looking at Gurriel’s batting statistics, his good overall numbers smooth over a lot of streakiness at the plate. The outfielder is prone to extreme hot and cold stretches, with injuries sometimes factoring into that variance. Just in 2022, Gurriel had a .601 OPS over his first 154 plate appearances, then posted a .901 OPS in his next 241 PA, then slumped to a .554 OPS in his final 98 PA prior to a hamstring injury that prematurely ended his season in early September.
While that roller-coaster of a season evened out to 114 wRC+ in 493 PA, Gurriel’s sudden lack of power was a concern, as his .108 Isolated Power total was far below the .209 ISO he had previously posted during his career. Again, injuries might have been a reason, as Gurriel dealt with a wrist problem during the season that eventually required surgery in October, and he is expected to be ready for his first Spring Training with the D’Backs.
It all adds up to a career that has been both inconsistent, yet somewhat predictably inconsistent at the same time. The Diamondbacks have a reasonable expectation of what a healthy Gurriel can deliver as a floor, with hopes that his ceiling might reach higher in a new environment. Gurriel could also benefit to some extent if the D’Backs use their left-handed hitting outfielders (i.e. Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Dominic Fletcher) to provide some shield against right-handed pitching, though Gurriel’s career splits are pretty even.
2023 is the final season of Gurriel’s initial seven-year contract, and a clause in the deal makes him automatically eligible for free agency next winter even though Gurriel will be short of six years of MLB service time. The outfielder will be 30 on Opening Day 2024, so he can still offer some prime years to an interesting team on the open market, but much will be determined by how Gurriel performs this season in Arizona.
Some Toronto fans were surprised that the Blue Jays had to include both Moreno and Gurriel to pry Varsho away from the D’Backs, yet that could reflect what relatively modest trade value Gurriel had around the league, even for a player owed only $5.4MM in 2023. Even from the Diamondbacks’ perspective, while Gurriel’s inclusion was a factor in finally getting the trade over the finish line, the still-existing outfield surplus within the organization means that Arizona probably sees Gurriel as a one-year rental. If the D’Backs are again out of contention by the trade deadline, Gurriel might be a prime candidate to be shipped elsewhere.
If Gurriel matches only his 2021-22 numbers, a two-year free agent deal might be his max, and a lot of teams might not be willing to go beyond one guaranteed year. As we’ve seen this offseason, teams are willing to pay big for superstars, or pay big (either in free agent dollars or in trade return) for younger players with potential to break out. Clubs are less willing to open their wallets for “just” solid production, thus leaving Gurriel in danger of being squeezed in the market unless he has a quality platform season.
Gurriel could point to older brother Yuli as an example of how later-career production runs in the family. However, the younger Gurriel will likely need to stay healthy and (perhaps significantly) out-perform his past Toronto production in order to really capitalize on his upcoming trip to the open market.
Duran (mid-season top 100 on MLB.com) for him and a reliever of varying strength?
NO!
For whom and why not?
Dbacks brought Gurriel in to protect their young left handed hitting, starting OF against left handed pitching. Gurriel stays.
Dbacks have 2 right handed hitting 3b, Longoria and Rivera, both are better than Duran.
So, NO!
Now if Texas wants to trade Barlow, Leclerc or Hernandez…you might get the Dbacks attention. The back end of the bullpen is the only remaining area of need this off-season for the Dbacks.
1b/Corner OF and former 1st Round pick Pavin Smith might be available. Or Top prospects like CF Dominic Fletcher, SS Blaze Alexander, or 1b/OF Dominic Canzone.
You would rather give up a top prospect for a reliver than get one for a reliver and a rental outfielder? That doesn’t seem logical. Either way, you are way overreacting to that, and few people would value Barlow, Leclerc, or Hernandez more than a top 100 prospect as of 2022 midseason. Most GMs don’t value relievers this much. Texas also needs relievers badly.
Only area?? Ya ok buddy
It is the only area that needs further addressed this offseason, though.
They have 7 SP (technically 8 if you count Martin) on the 40-man with another 3 quality prospects that have already hit AAA. Any further pitcher added with MLB designs would have to be clearly better than what’s in house to make sense to acquire (and would require a corresponding 40-man move).
They have 3 C on the 40-man with intention to divy up the time between the top 2 options (who then pick up a heavier load if one is injured).
They have 3 true 1B on the 40-man (one a GG) with Gurriel/Rivera also capable of covering 1B.
They have Marte locked up at 2B, but there are another 4 guys on the 40-man capable of filling in at 2B (most of which play defense better).
They have a clear platoon lined up at 3B, but there are a total of 5 guys on the 40-man capable of covering there.
It’s a little questionable counting on Ahmed for full-time PAs after his surgery, but we have Perdomo, Castillo, and Alexander capable of covering SS short term (in anticipation for Lawler).
Gurriel and Lewis are the only RHH OF on the 40-man, and both were acquired to minimize the LHP PAs that Carroll, McCarthy, Thomas, Smith, and Fletcher will see. Hazen isn’t going to turn around and deal that safety net.
That only leaves the bullpen, where we have a competition for CP between Mantiply, Castro, Ginkel, and McGough primarily (with the potential for Nelson or Vargas to throw themselves in that mix later on). We’re stuck with Melancon another year, but one more bullpen addition all but relegates him to mop up duty and guarantees quality depth as the first line against injury.
We didn’t see all of these 40-man adds (and corresponding drops) with intention to deal from that or the active roster.
If I had to guess why you’re being condescending, I’d guess it’s because you think Postseason aspirations for the DBacks require a lot of things going right; every DBack fan agrees with that.
What’s not being acknowledged is that a lot has to wrong for this to be a bad team; which is all we’re asking for in AZ.
This is not a bad roster for ~$113MM, and close to ~$34MM of that is committed to Bumgarner and Marte.
Snakes are better than most people give them credit for. They could sneak into a wild card spot very easily. If they were not in the same division as the dodgers Padres and to a lesser extent the Giants they could very well win 90+. But there is bound to be some self caniblization there even with a balanced schedule.
You can question the exact production you’ll get, but not sure how much of a make or break year this is for a player who’s consistently above average
I think he’s more of a potential breakout candidate at this point. His 162 game average is pretty darn solid. I think he has a higher ceiling though and could string together a few all star seasons.
I’m very interested to see what his hair game is gonna be like in the desert
Manfraud: You’re exactly right. How is this make or break for Gurriel whose lowest point was Hicks’ maximum production? And that’s not including their histories during which Gurriel has been healthier and much, much better offensively.
Yankee Fan Talk About Another Player Without Talking About The Yankees Challenge (IMPOSSIBLE)
The article explains as much. He’s a free agent after the season, so he’ll be paid on this season, plus his hot-and-cold, Rollercoaster swings throughout a 162-game season. Yes, body of work is above average, but getting there is no picnic. He needs a breakout season to clear that baggage for a big deal this winter.
lol @ manfaud That is just the thing. Dude was not consistent as a hitter and definitely not above average on defense.
No glove. No power. ‘Streaky’ as a hitter, still i don’t know what’s not to love about this guy. Especially since he is a bargain, lots of fun, nice attitude and great hair of course! He will be missed 🙁
But look – he always hit 6th or 7th in the order. If he wants to get paid big – he needs to have a big 2023.
Well take care snakes fans hopefully it is Arizona versus the Jays for a world series.
Thank god for the good hair
I think it’s called out quite clearly in the article why it’s make or break. He’s a FA next year, he’s a historically inconsistent player, and the market isn’t paying for his 2022 profile so he needs to be a consistent player that provides more power if he wants to get paid in his free agency. Hence, make or break.
I think he’ll breakout and become decent he seemed above average last season so why not take the spin again?
He will have a great year and was an awful “throw in” by Atkins. His OF defense is suboptimal, but as a DH with some spot starts in LF and 1B he is a great player.
His lows are very low and his highs are very high. If he ever does get off to a hot start to a year he might put together a really good season but normally he starts off really slow and then becomes the jays best hitter for a few months down the stretch
Career May (241 AB) 241/.276/.403
Career June (308 AB) 335/.370/.592
Also, with the bases loaded he becomes Barry Bonds.
(43 AB) 447/.488/.895
He also has one of the best and most accurate OF arms in all of baseball. He was fun to watch and brought a lot of fun to the game, hope he had a good year in Arizona.
Except that Barry hit homers. There is a reason he was often overlooked
.895 career slugging with the bases loaded for LGJ
He only hits well when the weather gets hot
That bodes well for Arizona ha ha.
Often overlooked in that Toronto lineup. Pretty decent hitter who could have a breakout year tbh.
I wish Hicks would just perform to this guy’s average stat line. If this is make or break for him, what is it for Aaron Hicks? Not to mention after May or whatever he gets his 10/5 rights, which the Yankees said they are not going to trade him simply to avoid letting him get there (and then becoming quite literally untraceable, if Hicks seems it so).
Why do you keep talking about Aaron Hicks?
@raregokus: why do you care so much? Seems you have a four person cheering section that follows you around. Interesting.
Raregokus: Why do you ask me a question when you have me muted? If you don’t want to read my comments don’t ask me a question.
He’s 29 and has played a ton. He’s not going to get better at this point.
That’s a mega long article on a 4th outfielder. Well done!!
You have to be kidding? He’s an everyday OF. He played with a bad wrist and still hit well just not with power.
Lol he’s a decent hitter with a great arm who is a meh OF. This isn’t a make or break year lol It’s a free agency coming up type of year
He’s gonna rake!
Polishuk gets an F on writing this article because of the blunder listing the Dbacks left handed hitting OF as Thomas, McCarthy and Fletcher? Has Polishuk ever heard of a left handed hitting Dbacks OF named Corbin Carroll? That is an idiotic blunder showing he knows absolutely nothing about the Dbacks.
Totally agree with this assessment! I watched Corbin Carroll play last year in AA Amarillo. In the 4 years Amarillo has had a AA team, Corbin is hands down the best player I’ve watched come through the system overall. And that list includes getting to watch Thomas, McCarthy and Fletcher! There’s no way Polishuk gets a “pass” on this blunder! 100% agree with scottaz!
For all you Blue Jays fans writing nice things about Gurriel, thank you. But the Dbacks starting OF is Carroll, Thomas and McCarthy. Gurriel was brought on board to play against left handed pitching. I understand that Gurriel doesn’t have huge split differences, but he is a 4th OF in Arizona.
He’s just had a lot of protection from the top of the lineup with the Jays that people can love when he’s hot and forget about the months he disappears. We haven’t counted on him to deliver big, so his hot streaks are bonus.
His overall numbers say 4th outfielder, but could be more to buy some time if Alek Thomas doesn’t find a step forward to better BABIP.
LG hit 1st in 10 g, 3rd 16 4th 17 5th 20 6th 27 7th 12 8th 19 hardly protected like you suggest
Pretty solid bat, but oh man, that defense was summin’. If he can’t get his power stroke back, it’s going to be a low payday next year.
Gurriel won’t get much of a platform year playing as a 4th OF and part time DH in AZ.
The question is: why? Are the DBacks OF crop that much better than Gurriel? It seems to me that his offense, especially if it rebounds all the way, would be hard to match.
It’s an honest question, I’m not being facetious.
@Yankee Clipper
The reason that the current DBacks crop is more valuable than Gurriel Jr. is that they’re all high speed and good defense guys in a ballpark that rewards both of those things (which are high floor skills). Their speed allows them to push for XBHs in a park that rewards XBHs of every type with the exception of HRs.
The upside that all of them offer in a ballpark that is conducive to their skillsets is higher than what Gurriel Jr. offers in that same ballpark.
High heat: Okay, that makes sense. I was viewing it from the offensive perspective, but if they’re more valued defensively for those reasons I get that. Thanks High Heat.
No prob Clip; everybody has a tendency to remember Chase as an offensive haven. It’s still true to an extent, but the movement of the fences and installation of the humidor causes it to favor 1B, 2B, and 3B hits over HRs.
Which necessitates having strong defensive OFs to mitigate the offensive contributions of Chase to opposing lineups. DBacks tend to favor strong defensive profiles for that reason.
@scottaz
Going to ride @Yankee Clipper coat tails on his comment/question.
To add, by multiple sources, the deal for Varsho doesn’t happen if Gurriel isn’t included. It seems strange that the Dbacks would want his inclusion with the intention of not giving him a platform to showcase his ability.
From the outside looking in, I’d say another deal is afoot, as Sherlock would say.
I’m not sure about that nosaint
Moreno was the centrepiece and Lourdes’ value could have been achieved in other ways.
It’s very clear that the blue jays wanted actively looked to trade teo and Lourdes
The trade with the Blue Jays, from the Dbacks perspective was Varsho for Gurriel, with Moreno thrown in to make it happen.
The Dbacks two primary off-season needs were bullpen and the team weakness against left handed pitching because their top 6 OF were all left handed young hitters. They had to trade at least one of their left handed OF to correct this weakness and Varsho had the most value. They had to get a right handed hitting OF primarily. The Dbacks 1st ask of the Jays was probably for Jordan Romano and others for Varsho. Dbacks probably discussed Varsho with almost every other MLB club. The ask would always be a Closer or a power hitting right handed OF.
Dbacks probably circled back to Toronto because the Dbacks secondary needs were a power hitting right handed 3b and catcher help. But catcher help was the 4th or 5th priority. If Toronto threw in Moreno, then the Dbacks would fill 2 needs in one trade and get sufficient value for Varsho. So that’s the trade the Dbacks settled on.
I’d have to disagree on it being Daulton for Lourdes with Moreno as a throw in; the goal was a long term impact talent that bats righty, and in this case that was Moreno. It’s fair to assume that Hazen was targeting a bat at C/3B due to the roster deficiencies, and Lourdes happened to be a plus in the OF mix.
highheat
The Dbacks were looking for years of control to balance Varsho’s years of control, and Lourdes definitely didn’t fill that requirement. Nor does Gurriel’s talent level match up against Varsho’s. So I agree your take probably makes more sense. But I will still maintain that the Dbacks priority was right handed hitting OF, not catcher at the outset. After surveying what they could get in the Closer and OF trade market, the Dbacks then flipped to a fill 2 holes in one trade strategy. At that point both Gurriel and Moreno were equal requirements for the trade with Toronto, so neither one was the throw in to make the trade work. But the starting ask was an OF, so the “add in” was a catcher.
@Dustyslambchops23
One of the sources I mention was from Atkins himself during the presser. A question from Kaitlyn McGrath had Atkins responding, “So including Lourdes Gurriel in the deal was difficult for us, but necessary from their end. And they they were looking to consolidate talent at the Major League level as well. So the prospect driven deals wasn’t as attractive to them.”
Varsho was only ever being dealt to address at least two roster holes, though (with a RP being all but incapable of adding the necessary trade value to only part with two players); from there it was just lining up who had a willingness to part with the talent.
As OF options kept dropping off the market, the value of OF-capable (especially CF-capable) players skyrocketed and the Jays became more comfortable with dealing from a position of depth.
The final deal likely varied very little from the initial proposal, the only thing that changed was the market. There wasn’t a NEED for Lourdes to be acquired (although a welcome addition) after Lewis had been acquired for Hummel, nor was there a need to mortgage Varsho’s future value to address a position as fungible as RP when there are always deals to be made mid-season.
I agree that neither one was a throw-in; I’m actually inclined to believe that both were very close to the initial ask. That doesn’t change that Moreno was the primary value driver with Gurriel Jr. something more akin to a reclamation project (and a very good/interesting) one at that.
Nosaint, I know but of course Atkins needs to say that.
Also scottaz you think the snakes traded varsho for one year of gurriel not 5 years of a top catching prospect. Lol
Dusty
Actually, yes I do say that. Gurriel, or a right handed bat is only needed by the Dbacks for 1 year, because Kristian Robinson should be ready in one year when Gurriel is gone. But that one year is critical to the development of three young left handed OF. They need one year of adjustment time to see if they can hit left handed pitching. Gurriel was absolutely necessary in that trade.
NoSaint
The Dbacks intent for Gurriel is NOT to showcase his talent to offer him a QO. or flip him in a trade, or extend him, but rather Gurriel is exclusively a one year fill in until Kristian Robinson is ready. This is however a crucial one year. Plus, Gurriel’s contract prohibits the Dbacks from offering a QO.
Gurriel’s value lies solely with protecting the young left handed OF from left handed pitching for 1 year. He will be used as an OF against left handed pitching, making him a4th Of and will share DH duties with Longoria, Lewis andPavin Smith.
Diamondback aren’t making 1 year move decisions.
Dusty
They didn’t. They got Moreno for multi-years to balance out the 1 year on Gurriel’s deal. Hazen also said he wasn’t trading any of his 4 stud left handed OF for Prospects. And technically he didn’t do that either. It’s just that often reality differs from stated intents. Hazen didn’t lie. He just took the best deal he could get that met team needs for Varsho.
@scottaz
Gurriel signed a MLB contract which has to conform to the terms and conditions of the CBA. By both Cot’s and Fangraphs, Gurriel is a FA in 2024. Under the CBA, a player can receive a QO once in their career. Therefore, by the terms of the CBA, Gurriel can receive a QO and your assertion that he can’t because of his contract is false.
Also Fangraphs, RotoChamp, Sports illustrated, etc. have Gurriel in the starting line up.
He isn’t going to be the 4th outfielder. Hazen said he would be the leftfielder and dh on days when they want their best defensive outfield. They intend to have him in the lineup on an everyday basis.
Still betting he can beat 7/$22MM. Hard to see him not getting at least that same amount or more on a 2 yr.
Good article and I agree with most of it. Don’t like the mumbo/jumbo sabermetrics with Defensive numbers that I have zero confidence in based on how all over the place they and aren’t s true representation of a player’s performance which then skews fwar data.
More actual counting statistics with some sabermetric data as a secondary source is optimal in this reader’s opinion.
I agree with everything else in the article and the way things were stated.
Gurriel has a cannon of an arm.
I think Jays fans soured on him due to his streakiness, and rising Arb cost. As this article illustrates however, his overall stats are above league average in many categories and he has a cannon of an arm. His production has been less than teams typically expect from a LF but his arm is good enough to consider a move to RF (especially against a RH dominant lineup and with a strong CF that can help limit the ground Gurriel Jr is expected to cover)
He had a guaranteed contract and thus was not a part of the arb system.
Make or break?? Last time I checked Gurriel is a pretty good player so I think he’s the wrong guy to write a make or break piece on. I think he’s gonna be okay.
He’s not make or break in the conventional sense, because he’s a good hitter; however, his baserunning and defense (two areas that the DBacks focus on and specialize in) have been the big value sinks. Plus he was dealing with an injury that notoriously saps power.
If he can maintain his contact hitting and make some positive gains in one or more of: power production, baserunning, and LF defense (Dave McKay is a pretty good OF instructor, or the CFs can compensate for some range), then that sounds like a player much more deserving of a QO than he has been historically.
His power disappearing might have been related to the injured wrist, but I have a different theory. For a guy with the wingspan of an Andean condor, he has an impressive ability to pull his hands in and drive inside pitches. The Blue Jays in an attempt to help him improve his plate discipline moved him way back off the plate. On the broadcast they said it was so that outside pitches would look too far away to swing at. It was successful for improving his chase rates, but now a good chunk of his power zone was in off the plate (and he was being conscious not to chase). Furthermore, pitches on the outer third were now at the end of his swing where he couldn’t really drive them. Again, for a guy with long arms, he has impressive bat control and those outer third pitches led to a lot of opposite field hits. Just not hit with a ton of authority.
He’s a good hitter and he can certainly hit for power if that is what he and the D’Backs want him to do. There doesn’t appear to be much power in the Arizona lineup so I suspect they have a plan for Gurriel to add some thump.
Interesting. This does feel like the year that will decide if he’s a guy near the front of the OF class who lands a multiple year guarantee or falls into that part going from year to year.
You guys should do Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger.