The Guardians surprised most onlookers by sprinting to an AL Central title last season, pulling away from the Twins and White Sox with an excellent September. Cleveland quickly dispatched the Rays in the Wild Card series before losing a closely contested Division Series against the Yankees.
There were myriad reasons for the Guardians’ success. Recurring themes were plus defense around the diamond and a general willingness to trust young position players to run with their opportunities. That was also the case in the outfield, a unit that was average overall but had a couple standout players.
Cleveland seems mostly content running things back with the same group. The Guardians have added at catcher and first base, bringing in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell via free agency. They’ve not gone outside the organization for an outfielder to this point. One could argue for adding a veteran bat considering most of the in-house candidates have limited MLB track records, and perhaps Cleveland eventually adds a lower-cost depth type like Chad Pinder or Robbie Grossman. There’s probably not an impact player coming, though, so it’s worth looking through the numerous in-house options who could vie for playing time on the Progressive Field grass.
Kwan is the most established of the Cleveland outfielders after a stellar rookie season. He hadn’t been a top-tier prospect early in his professional career but continued excellence as a minor leaguer garnered him a spot on FanGraphs’ top 100 going into last season. Kwan even exceeded those expectations, hitting .298/.373/.400 with more walks than strikeouts over his first 638 MLB plate appearances. He paired that with elite defensive marks in left field, earning a Gold Glove and a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting in the process. Kwan has below-average power but does everything else so well he looks like a perfect top-of-the-lineup option for manager Terry Francona. So long as he’s healthy, the Oregon State product is the Guardians left fielder.
Straw seems likely to get another crack in center field, at least initially. Acquired from the Astros at the 2021 trade deadline, Straw stepped in as Cleveland’s primary center fielder from there forward. He’s an elite defender and baserunner and looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, combining for a .271/.349/.348 slash between the two teams. The Guardians rewarded him last spring with a $25MM contract extension that runs at least through the 2026 campaign.
The 28-year-old’s first full season in Cleveland was mixed. He continued to play excellent defense, with Statcast crediting him for 13 outs above average for his work in center field. Like Kwan, Straw secured his first Gold Glove. The offensive output plummeted though. He hit only .221/.273/.291 across 596 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, only Jonathan Schoop and Geraldo Perdomo were less effective hitters (minimum 500 PA’s).
Straw posted some of the league’s worst batted ball metrics and didn’t connect on a single home run. His defense and baserunning means he doesn’t need to hit much to be a worthwhile everyday player, but the Cleveland front office is surely hoping for a little more output at the plate. Straw doesn’t seem in imminent danger of losing his job, but posting another sub-.600 OPS through the All-Star Break could lead the front office to consider deadline possibilities to add a little more offensive firepower in center field.
Gonzalez, who turns 25 today, was yet another success story in a loaded Cleveland rookie class. The right-handed hitter posted a .282/.308/.506 line through 41 games at Triple-A Columbus to earn his first MLB call in late May. He stuck in the majors from then on and immediately hit the ground running. Over 382 trips to the plate, Gonzalez hit .296/.327/.461 with 11 home runs and 27 doubles. He had a couple heroic moments in the playoffs as well, connecting on the walk-off home run to eliminate Tampa Bay and a game-winning two-run single against the Yankees. Those clutch hits overshadowed a mediocre .226/.250/.323 overall batting line in 32 postseason plate appearances.
It was a strong enough season to put himself on the map as a potential long-term piece in the Cleveland outfield, and he’s the likeliest player to open the year in right. Yet there’s a fair bit less certainty in Gonzalez sustaining his excellent rookie form than there’ll be in Kwan’s case. Gonzalez has never been a favorite of most prospect evaluators thanks to questions about his aggressive approach and below-average corner outfield defense. Cleveland left him unprotected in advance of the Rule 5 draft as recently as the 2021-22 offseason as a result.
Gonzalez’s great year quiets those concerns to some extent, but they’re not completely answered. He swung at nearly half the pitches outside the strike zone he saw as a rookie, placing him near the top of the league in that regard. His 3.9% walk percentage was among the lowest in the game. Perhaps Gonzalez has special enough hand-eye coordination and power that it won’t matter. He’ll need to prove it in a second extended run against MLB arms.
If Kwan, Straw and Gonzalez is Cleveland’s Opening Day outfield, Brennan seems the player most likely to break into the mix off the bench. The left-handed hitter fits the Guardians’ mold of high-contact bats, having never struck out at even a 17% clip at any minor league stop. He went down on strikes just 12.2% of the time at Triple-A last season, hitting .316/.367/.471 with nine home runs and 15 steals across 433 plate appearances. He earned a late-season MLB look and played well in his first 11 games.
Baseball America ranked Brennan the #10 prospect in a deep Cleveland farm system this offseason. The outlet praises his contact skills, athleticism and arm strength but questions his power potential. Brennan can play center field but BA suggests he’s probably a stronger defensive fit in the corner outfield. It’s easy to point to some similarities between him and Kwan, although the latter’s minor league track record was a little better. Brennan’s likely a better hitter than Straw right now and could be a candidate to take increased center field reps if Straw continues to struggle offensively — particularly since Straw can come off the bench later in games when the Guardians are looking for their best defensive unit to protect a lead.
A bat-first utility option, Palacios also made his MLB debut in 2022. He didn’t break in as well as most of the other Cleveland rookies, hitting .232/.293/.286 without a longball in his first 123 trips to the dish. It wasn’t a great first look but Palacios had a quality .279/.371/.458 line with better than average strikeout and walk marks through 45 games at Triple-A. He can play the corner outfield spots and offer some depth on the right side of the infield.
Valera, 22, is more likely a midseason possibility than a candidate to break camp. He’s on the 40-man roster but only has 42 games of Triple-A experience. After a strong Double-A showing, he hit .221/.324/.448 with nine homers in 179 plate appearances at the top minor league level, walking at a quality 12.3% clip against a 25.1% strikeout rate. Valera is the #4 prospect in the organization at BA and regarded as a potential high-OBP corner outfielder at his peak; whether he’ll be ready to contribute to a win-now Cleveland club at any point in 2023 depends on how well he shows in his first full season at Triple-A.
A former first-round draftee, Benson is a high-risk upside play at the back of the 40-man roster. His minor league track record has been wildly inconsistent. He’s coming off a great 2022 showing in Triple-A, where he mashed at a .278/.426/.522 clip with 17 homers and 16 steals through 401 plate appearances. He earned a brief MLB look but sputtered to a .168/.252/.200 line over 28 games. The left-handed hitter has always intrigued with massive power potential in a 6’5″ frame and a very discerning eye at the plate. That’s been paired with huge strikeout tallies at times throughout his minor league career, although he only fanned in a roughly average 22.7% of his trips in Columbus last year.
That’s seven players, all of whom are on the 40-man roster and controllable for a long while. Cleveland’s particularly deep in left-handed options (only Straw and Gonzalez hit from the right side). There was enough depth in that regard the Guardians felt comfortable sending Nolan Jones — another lefty bat who profiled as a corner outfielder with José Ramírez entrenched at third base in Cleveland — to Colorado for infield prospect Juan Brito.
While there’s an abundance of interesting controllable outfield options in Cleveland, none has a lengthy track record of big league productivity. Kwan looks like the safest bet after his fantastic rookie year. Everyone else comes with question marks of varying degrees.
Straw and Gonzalez seem likely to get the first crack at jobs alongside Kwan again, though they’ll have some intriguing young players on hand as contingency plans. Supplementing the group with a veteran righty bat could be a nice luxury addition for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and his staff before the season gets underway. Any pickup would figure to be a low-cost complement to Cleveland’s various in-house young players, who’ll again be entrusted with significant roles as they look to repeat as division champs.
Hays with Baltimore, when healthy, is a solid bat. Since 2017, he’s seen plenty of action at “the show” level. And he is cheap. Key is staying healthy.
What is a fair deal between Cleveland and Baltimore?
In exchange for one of Cleveland’s rotation depth pieces, the O’s send Hays and one of their lefty relievers ( maybe that Keagan guy)
If Os could get a Quantrell add a position player prospect who fits the Guards needs.
Quantrill seems to be overperforming his expected ERA. His strikeout rate is poor, and he is also pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The average pitcher allowed 3.87 runs (earned plus unearned) per 9 innings in his conditions last year, according to Bref. I’d say it’s an overpay unless the infield prospect isn’t top 100 and is maybe a 20-30 in the organization.
Who’s not playing if Hays comes over? With Civale and Plesac behind him, they can’t afford to trade Cal. In a year from now, when Espino, Williams, and Bibee are in the conversation…he might be more expendable, but not now.
I agree, Cy. I like Hays, but I don’t know that we’ll be able to afford the price. I don’t see us trading Quantrill.
@DeGromTR; thanks for the intel on Quantrell. So Hays and Aiken, only? Or Hays and a position player prospect for a Quantrell type might get it done?
How about Santander and Stowers for Quantrill?
No, because they have guys like that already. Unless it’s someone like Bryan Reynolds, they don’t need outfielders. They should honestly be looking at acquiring a SP, not trading away their current #3.
That’s fair. I honestly was just going off values.
Santander isn’t very good. Yes he hits HRs, but has no plate discipline.
Catch 22 with Santander. Plate discipline is an issue. He is a free swinger for sure. Doesn’t walk much. The good news is is that when he’s swinging, he’s not missing. His KOs to PAs % is much better than league average. IE he’s putting the ball in play even though, because of BB issue, his OBP doesn’t reflect this.
The Indians could sign Profar if they want to spend some money, though it wouldn’t be as efficient financially.
Andrew McCutchen makes so much sense for Cleveland to me. He won’t break the bank but will get big hits and offer a voice in the locker room. Seems like a guy who would vibe with this team as well.
I like that idea a lot. I am probably forgetting someone, but it seems Cleveland hasn’t really had an impact outfielder since Manny Ramirez left. They always seem to have the most anonymous outfield trio in the league.
Grady Sizemore was excellent but couldn’t stay healthy. I’m really rooting for Cleveland to just make even a mini splash, because with this rotation and defense they have a real chance.
Yeah I thought of both Sizemore and Michael Brantley, but they were both too injury prone to be what I would consider a franchise player. Shin Soo Choo was probably on the next tier down as well. But all were good enough to be in the thought process for sure.
CCooper8920;
1. McCutchen can’t play the OF anymore but they stick him in LF if a team wants to play him in the field. Guardians have Kwan there. He’s an excellent hitter and defender.
2. McCutchen wants what what 4-5 of their OF’s combined are paid….and at least 2 will produce more than him.
3. The Guardians have leadership with Rameriz, Bieber, Rosario, and Naylor. They’re fine.
I’m not sure they will be able to get either McCutchen or Profar – for money reasons. They are both Cleveland’s kind of player, however, if they weren’t so expensive. McCutchen is a leader, is still a decent fielder and has right handed power. Profar can play a bunch of positions and isn’t an awful right handed bat. But they both would take AB’s from Brennan, so if they picked up one, he would have to go to AAA to get regular at bats. I think they are probably intrigued by Brennan, so I see them getting a lower value option like Grossman or an infielder, then trade for someone with more power at the deadline.
Guardians OF looks pretty good. Maybe a low risk-affordable player like David Peralta?
Don’t need a LH hitter.
Gonzalez deserves to get another look, even if there are doubts that it is sustainable. Kwan is a lock. And the organization loves Straw up the middle and many think he can return to a .260-.270/80-90 WRC+. That would be just fine as a 9 hole hitter with his defense.
Maybe they add a veteran on a cheap deal as insurance and to take away some ABs from J. Naylor against LHP.
Cleveland is the top dog in the central, no breakdown does it justice. The collapse of Chicago, and to a lessor Minnesota was epic. I guess the X factor is Francona. First or second the last 7 years, and hes not had a team chock full of stars either. Speed an contact, with some good power in spots. They play above any breakdown, so they will miss Terry when he goes I would bet, but who knows ?
Antonetti doesn’t get enough credit either imo
Both of you are correct.
Cleveland plays strong fundamental baseball which public statistics don’t take into account.
They’re young and many are still learning. The new rules that favor baserunning and hitters that make contact and spray the ball around will benefit them more than most teams.
I think Indians take a step back this year. Twins and white Sox both have very good teams. I don’t see Cleveland being able to repeat
Chicago on paper looks unbeatable every year for quite sometime now, but they just don’t seem to be able to close the deal. Francona as the X factor ? Chicago is loaded with 20 hr guys, so it must be the X factor.
Solid work, as usual, from Anthony, who is quickly becoming my favorite MLBTR writer. Meanwhile, I don’t normally credit managers too much, but in Tito’s case I do. He’s just the best manager in the game and had a lot to do with their success IMO.
We killed Tito in Philly when he was here, simply due to the fact that the team that he was managing was not very good. Fans are tough once they make up their minds, but Tito has long been known and one of the nicest and most genuine guys in the game and it has been awesome to see his success since he left.
I hope that his health hangs on enough for him to manage for a while longer. Cleveland has been good for him, and he has been good for that team.
He was pretty good in Boston, too. Well, except for the “chicken incident”
Class act all the way Tito….helluva manager that any team would hire in a moment
Adam Duvall is a free agent, and would be a fit for the club because of his elite defense, and big power (which is sorely needed).
Of the names in this thread, Duvall is the one who I think the Guardians might actually go for. He hits left handers and that is a big deal.
jwenger;
You have something.
They could use a RH bat.
Depends on how good he still is and what sort of salary he’s looking for.
In addition to the list of outfield prospects,
in addition to Will Brennan,
WALTER BRENNAN could also be added
“Guardians are running back mostly the same team”
Yeah, I believe it. I would too with the success they had last season. They found a formula that works for them, made a couple adjustments, and with even a slight improvement are going to be a potential problem again for whichever team they play in the postseason.
I also think that they’re going to have a sneaky good (rookie) catcher in Bo Naylor.
Yeah, I agree. They’re a solid team that’s only going to get better, individually and collectively.
They have so much good pitching that if the rookies make any kind of progress, they are scary.
The Fiend;
Exactly.
Pitching and the defense to support it wins.
Even teams such as the Yankees, Cubs, and Angels have joined others in going in that direction.
Nor pushing for him but Grossman is a Cleveland type of player. Has been a high walk guy in the past.
I see CLE as part of a three-team, multiple-player deal to get a better backend starter and another power RH bat. They have multiple starting pitchers (Plezac heads the list), young infielders, and outfielders that other teams crave because of their talent and low salaries.
Who’s who list of I don’t know you.
Cancel the season, guys. Stan Konit doesn’t know who these guys are.
I love Oscar and he’s already a fan favorite, but I also have my doubts that what he did last year is sustainable. I think the most likely scenario is that he’s an Avisail Garcia type player; they have very similar profiles, and Garcia will either give you a great year or he’ll be unplayable but you never really know which one it’ll be.
I’m a huge Brennan fan though. I don’t think Straw gets benched and it’s possible Oscar doesn’t regress, but they’ll find a spot for Brennan. I think he’s got underrated power (he’s more of a doubles guy and probably more of a 15 homer guy right now but that’s still valuable with the rest of his profile), and I feel pretty confident that he’ll be an everyday contributor by the end of the year.
Valera is (in my mind) has the highest upside of their offensive prospects and probably has the highest chance of being a superstar, although he’s not ready yet. He’s shown a pattern of struggling when he first gets promoted to a new level before figuring it out and dominating, so I think by June or July he’ll probably be knocking down the door. But they have more outfield depth than they have in the past, so it doesn’t seem like they’ll have to rush him.
They won’t add more payroll for an ofer. Why would they? They want to see if Gonzales is for real to begin with, and if he under-performs they’ll look at Brennan, Benson, and Valera. If they need an ofer, it’ll be at the trade deadline.
I agree. Any option available is a lateral move at best
The league needs more players such as Steven Kwan, and it is good to see the pendulum swinging back towards appreciating a few high contact hitters that will spray the ball around the park, exhibit plate discipline, field the position well and generally make things happen out there.
He was so much fun to watch last season. In addition to knowing the zone and handling the bat, Kwan has a great energy.
Straw is another food example of the limitations of war. 2.7 WAR and 1 offensive WAR. Great fielder but no.
Guardians pretty much had everything go right to make the playoffs last year. Can easily see this team collapsing into 4th even in a very bad division.
Cant type on my phone. Dont eat straw.
4th? With the Royals and Tigers in that division? Even a slide back to .500ish, I don’t see the other two teams taking that big of step forward.
I think as of right now, cleveland is a .500 team this year.Yes, they are better than Detroit but I think Detroit will be a lot better this year – the lineup cant be worse. I wouldnt be surprised if CLV surprises on the downside and plummet down to 4th.
Cleveland should check with Milwaukee on both Taylor and Winkers