The Dodgers are in agreement with starter Julio Urías on a $14.25MM salary for the 2023 season, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The sides avoid a hearing for the left-hander’s final season of arbitration eligibility.
Urías has emerged as one of the game’s top pitchers. He’s somehow never made an All-Star team but finished in the top ten in NL Cy Young balloting in each of the last two seasons, including a third-place finish in 2022. The Mexico native led the National League with a 2.16 ERA across 175 innings, his second straight sub-3.00 campaign. Since firmly establishing himself in the Los Angeles rotation in 2020, he carries a 2.66 ERA and has held opponents to a .210/.262/.345 line over 415 2/3 frames.
Once regarded as the sport’s top pitching prospect, Urías was in the majors before his 20th birthday. He’s still just 26 years old but has already crossed the five-year service threshold. Barring an extension, he’ll be a free agent next offseason. If he has another season like either of his past two, he’d be the top starting pitcher available on the open market (aside from two-way star Shohei Ohtani). Given his youth and production, Urías could plausibly eclipse the $200MM mark next winter.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Urías for a $13.7MM salary for his final arbitration year. His actual deal comes in a bit above that mark, representing a notable raise on last season’s $8MM figure.
Rocker49
Nice work Los Karens
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
The Angels would like to contest that nickname…
RobM
Always happy to see Urias succeed. I thought for sure his career was either over, or would be greatly limited when he had capsule surgery. Has to be one of the most successful stories ever for a pitcher what that type of surgery.
Talleywhacker
Rob-Well, if Trevor Bauer is the measure in which a Dodger should conduct himself then yes, Urias’ career should be over
taran7
What an utterly ignorant comparison.
Talleywhacker
How so? One was actually proven to have assaulted someone, the other had proof he was telling the truth. I don’t think my comment was the ignorant one.
jopeness
@Talley, by the app view you replied to Rob who mentioned recovering from the capsule surgery which coupled with this eye surgeries could have ended his career. with a remark about Bauer and Dodger conduct. it had no context or relevancy thus Taren’s ignorant call out.
Talleywhacker
@jope. Damn. You’re right. My bad.
jopeness
Accountability.. damn, so rare and a my bad kicker even rarer these days.
avenger65
He’s been the quietest pitcher of that caliber in bb. By that I mean he’s had fantastic numbers the last two seasons. He wins almost every time out, yet he’s passed up for the Cy Young the all-star game and other accolades. It’s a puzzle to me why the media keeps shutting him out. That’s why the media should never have a vote for individual awards, Hof etc. If a guy gives them an interview and they don’t like the answers, chances are they aren’
avenger65
He’s been the quietest pitcher of that caliber in bb. By that I mean he’s had fantastic numbers the last two seasons. He wins almost every time out, yet he’s passed up for the Cy Young the all-star game and other accolades. It’s a puzzle to me why the media keeps shutting him out. That’s why the media should never have a vote for individual awards, Hof etc. If a guy gives them an interview and they don’t like the answers, chances are they aren’t going to be rewarded by the media. The names Ritchie Allen and Albert Bell come to mind.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Rocker the misogynist can’t find a new act.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
It’s meant to be a racial slur, though most of those anti-white comments are really just using race to hide their true content: white trash, skinhead, redneck, etc. That term does get old, though, after a while.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
*hillbilly instead of redneck
Kewldood69
Don’t be mad because you live in an undesirable area and your team sucks
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
For a team trying to get under the luxury threshold, it seems a bit odd to pay higher than MLB TR’s projections. I mean, they tend to overestimate most free agent contracts, and I assume that would also apply to arb projections.
Huck 3
True. But you never know which salary the arbitrator will pick – the one the team proposed, or the one the player requested. So meeting somewhere in between at least guarantees they won’t get the worst, and does that for both sides.
BlueSkies_LA
The other obvious answer is that MLBTR arbitration projections are only that.
avenger65
Yeah, I don’t think GMs consult MLBTR before coming up with dollar figures. But Matt Swartz is very good at predicting salaries.
bbatardo
Bad business to nickel and dime a player who has outperformed and one you might want long term. Plenty of other ways to save back the money.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
It was a smart move to cut Bellinger. They shouldn’t have traded for an injured Rojas, though, and should have at least asked for some salary relief.
mlbdodgerfan2015
If you want to talk salary, there are much bigger issues than Rojas or Urias going less than $1 million over an MLBTR forecast. Starting with Bauer. They of course have to pay Buehler even though he likely won’t pitch in 2023 and ditto for Treinen. That’s part of the dilemma in trying to field a playoff team and staying under the CBT. Controlled players also get more expensive with years of service. All this to point that the best way to make a meaningful impact is to get the younger controlled players to produce at a level that is way above average pay. Lux taking another step up sure would help. Vargas or Outman need to produce. One of the starting pitcher prospects too over the next year or two.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
They made 2 mistakes with Bauer: 1) Overpaying him based on 2 seasons and 2) Releasing him
jonbluvin
Their only mistake was signing him in the first place.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Releasing him isn’t necessary if he never gets signed, so I take it that you effectively agree here. 8)
paddyo furnichuh
“Releasing him isn’t necessary if he never gets signed,”
DeGromTX?
Maybe you are not aware of the concept of a roster and various maximum capacities. Each major sport has at least one with varying limits on how suspended, injured, or otherwise unavailable players may occupy a roster slot.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Agree, mistake to sign him with his Twitter history and other comments, not a good team guy. Slight overpay too. Right move to release him, have to protect your business brand.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Had they never signed Bauer, they wouldn’t be obliged to pay the salary regardless. I am not sure what you are saying. No Bauer signing = some other Joe Random fills the spot and that Joe Random may stay or be replaced with Jack Random… please explain here
avenger65
Bauer had just won a well-deserved Cy Young. Who wouldn’t want to sign him? The Dodgers were right to sign him. He had a great season with Reds. How does any team know that the player they signed and had a good star with LA is going to reveal that he is an alleged pervert?
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
I am not commenting on that. I am saying his performance was very inconsistent, and he didn’t deserve that much money, considering the market. Everyone does regrettable things. Some just get broadcasted to billions of people and others don’t get attention.
jopeness
It also is optics and gain favor when they extend an offer next off season, which may be lower than expected as you stated, trying to get under CBT. I see Texas being a dark horse in trying to sign him if he becomes a FA.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Who are you referring to?
jopeness
@degrom, your original post with higher predicted arb and Urias. Not going down that Bauer rabbit hole lol.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
He should get more than Gerrit Cole due to his superior age.
Mr big dig
Dodgers won’t resign him next season. Unless it’s around 200MM. I think he’ll command 300MM next year tho
solaris602
I had been wondering why they didn’t just extend him, but Boras doesn’t do extensions unless it’s way above market, so I suspect this will be Urias’ last season in LA.
CarverAndrews
To the Dodgers fans, since I don’t follow them closely. What is it all about that apparently there is some tension between Urias the the organization and that folks do not expect him to stay (barring the stupid money talks argument)?
puigpower
First, I’ve heard of it
YankeesBleacherCreature
None that I know of. He’s represented by Boras so take whatever veiled grumbling with a grain of salt.
CarverAndrews
I saw it somewhere credible – it was just a brief comment however. I don’t read the fan blogs, Fansided and all that crap nor do I go to twitter and such so I am not passing along garbage as if it is credible as a rule..
But hey – could be wrong; might be mistaken. Getting old.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
The issue is Boras. Otherwise, Dodgers are Urias are happy. But money talks.
BlueSkies_LA
You aren’t completely misinformed. When he came back from the shoulder surgery a few years back the Dodgers broke him in very slowly and carefully, limiting his appearance and innings. At one point in the process Urias made it clear that he didn’t feel he needed to be babied so much. Fans tend to make too much this kind of thing, though.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Domestic Violence perpetrator maybe? Everyone seems to forget. Could be why he won’t be resigned. Who knows.
BlueSkies_LA
Not you, is my wild guess.
toomanyblacksinbaseball
How did Boras not make a package deal with the Twins?
gbs42
A package deal for what? Is this /s?
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Urias averages around 5 2/3 innings per start. I know that’s the way the game has been heading, but for 200mil – 300mil I would want a horse as my #1 starter. Pass on this guy.
vtadave
Guess teams should pass on Ohtani for the same reason?
davidrocholl
Urias will surpass 300MM cause Ohtani will surpass 400MM and therefore Soto will surpass 500MM as long as he continues his consistency!!
haringbone
Ohtani should fetch more than Soto. 2 way. And look how poor Soto was last year. Everyone’s assuming he’s gonna sign a huge deal but unless he proves he can play at a high level outside of Washington he ain’t gonna break any pay records. 280 ba won’t cut it
haringbone
They babies him cause he needed it. That’s why he’s where he is.
Pedro 4 Delino
Dodgers babied Urias more than other pitchers due to his age and early career injuries. I’m sure Boras will be selling Julio as low mileage for his amount of experience.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Urias is more than capable of going longer but the Dodgers simply don’t need that. The Dodgers coddle Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, they let Buehler pitch slightly longer and it backfired. Urias is definitely worth $200 million. No pitcher (who is not a two-way player) is getting $300 million even in this market. Unless you count Ohtani as a pitcher, and of course Ohtani is really a pitcher and a DH. Ohtani is not worth $400 million to me, but he will get it, no doubt.
DarrenDreifortsContract
I’ve loved Urias since day one and It’s a shame how underrated he still is. I blame the Dodgers for babying him all of those early years of his career.
I predict a 20 win season with an era under 2.00 and a CY Young in 2023!
BlueSkies_LA
He suffered an injury that ends the careers of most pitchers who have it, so I don’t blame the Dodgers for protecting their investment. It’s worked out well for both the team and the player. As for being underrated, it’s a time zone thing. If he’d put up these sorts of number pitching in NY or Boston he’d already be a multiple AS and maybe won a Cy. He’ll get a guarantee of $200M next year almost without question.
Neon Cop
Let’s hope he isn’t still shoving women…
oldmanblue
Sign em
HalosHeavenJJ
Good for both sides. This is really life changing money.
He’s a big time fan favorite out here. Any supposed extra he got is more than made up for with extra ticket and merch sales.
geg42
He is worth at least twice that on the open market.
thefallensoldier
Future Cub
BlueSkies_LA
But then, who isn’t?
jeffsueu
Best not speak of $200 million or $300 million contracts for pitchers. Look back to the 2019 NL leaders in ERA. Top 4 – Ryu, deGrom, Soroka, and Flaherty and Ferris and Strasburgh are also on the list of top 10.