The Red Sox finalized their contract with veteran infielder Justin Turner this afternoon. Initial reports on the deal, which was agreed upon in December, were a bit variable.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post specified the details this afternoon (on Twitter). It’s officially a two-year, $21.7MM guarantee that comes with an average annual value of $10.85MM. The deal also contains up to $1MM in incentives that’d max out if he reaches 560 plate appearances. As previously reported, Turner will have the opportunity to opt out after the 2023 campaign.
The Vayner Sports client will make an $8.3MM salary this year. At season’s end, he’ll have to decide on either a $13.4MM player option or a $6.7MM buyout to head back to free agency. That lofty buyout means Turner would collect $15MM for one season if he opts out, and he’d only have to top $6.7MM on the open market to come out ahead financially. Matching or topping the .278/.350/.438 line he posted through 532 plate appearances during his final season with the Dodgers should allow him to fairly easily beat that figure.
The two-time All-Star spent nine seasons in Southern California after his first few years as a role player with the Orioles and Mets. He took to Twitter this evening to thank the Dodgers organization and its fans after officially putting pen to paper with Boston.
With Rafael Devers and Triston Casas set to man the corner infield, Turner seems likely to spend a decent amount of time at designated hitter in 2023. He’ll be replacing J.D. Martinez, who coincidentally landed in Los Angeles on a one-year free agent deal.
Ha ha ha … plop
Correct me if I’m wrong, but dodgers got JD for $10 and Turner gets $15 for one year? Big win for dodgers
correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t JD’s offensive output fall off a cliff last year and he’s pretty much limited to playing DH?
You’re wrong.
44 doubles, 1 triple, 16hrs, and an OPS+ of 117 means he was 17% better than league average.
Also, had to look it up but browser crashed….
Turner and JDM both hit .278 on the year, but, turner only had 36 doubles, 0 triples, and 13 hrs.
So… which was the better hitter? Bloom overpaid.
WAR:
Turner 2.0
Martinez 1.1
Lets see what Martinez can do when he no longer can hit a pop fly to left for a double.
We’ll need to watch this year and see. WAR isn’t objective, it’s weighted by position which makes it the wrong stat to use to compare hitters who play different positions. JD was the superior hitter in 2022 both by results and by neutral metrics like OPS+.
Next year both turner and JDM will be DHs. No reason to put an aging/failing turner on the field when you’ve got Devers, Casas, and for now, Dalbec among others to cover the corners.
All this is under the assumption that Turner opts out after one season. If he doesn’t then money is about the same.
Their offense is basically the same and its safe say that Turner’s double numbers will go up next season. Turner can also play a couple different postilions.
It’s also been said that JD took less money to specifically go to the Dodgers. Safe to say that his other offers would have been in 15m range.
WAR isnt objective. But, you selecting just “double”, “triple” and “homeruns” and no other stat, is? Come on “triples”? Talk about not being objective.
Also, you make no mention of defense, which is why Turner’s WAR is so much better. JD Martinez is an anchor at the DH spot, at least Turner can be moved around.
Also, look at JD’s spray chart. So many of his doubles go to shallow left field. Thats the Green Monster saving him. Dodger stadium has these dimensions:
Left field: 330; Left-center: 385; Center field: 395
He’s going to lose a lot of Doubles and Homeruns, but who knows maybe he’ll still get that 1 Triple. Lol.
As I said. We shall see.
JDMs OPS+ was 1 percent better than Turner. Not a slam dunk, but, my original point was twofold which you seem to be missing just as you ignore the neutral OPS+ stat.
1) JDM didn’t fall off a cliff last season, and
2) JDM is not an inferior hitter than Turner, at least not in 2022.
I will add point 3) JDM could be just as realistically moved around as Turner, which is to say BOTH we signed to be locked in as DH-only types. Yes, you could put JD in the OF but why? Same deal with turner. Better fielders exist both starting and as depth than turner on the red sox roster. It would be shocking to see him put out on the diamond more than a handful of times, if that.
And I will also add point 4) JD on a 10m contract is a MUCH better deal than Turner at 15m if he opts out as expected. To remain on the payroll for an extra 6m the following year means he’s either hurt or stinks, which, would also make his deal worse
“JD didnt fall off a cliff last season”
No, but his power did: Slugging .518 to .448
“JDM is not an inferior hitter than Turner, at least not in 2022”
Where did I say he was? Are you reading my posts? In fact, I said “you make no mention of defense, which is why Turner’s WAR is so much better”. Implying his hitting last year was just as good as Turners.
“JDM could be just as realistically moved around as Turner”
No he wont. He didnt play a single game in the field last year, no way that changes to 66 games by Turner.
“It would be shocking to see him put out on the diamond more than a handful of times, if that.”
Did you read somewhere that he was brought in to strictly DH? I didnt hear that. I think youre making that assumption because Turner was signed a few days after JD left. Thats a weak premise. I see him at 1B a lot because Casas doesnt hit lefties well.
My Turn:
I see your avoiding the park dimensions at Dodger Stadium and how JD Martinez is a pull hitter, and his spray chart shows how he hits lots of his doubles to left field.
Fenway Park:
The dimensions: 310 left field: 379 left center field; 390 center field
Dodger Stadium:
330 Left field; 385 Left-center; 395 Center field
Thats a big difference. I see Martinez’s slugging falling, and the only reason to have JD on your team is for power.
I was initially responding to acell… then you butted in using WAR to compare two guys who are each playing different positions. So, in this thread I am free to repeat my original assertions, and, it explains why I was comparing batting prowess.
So, I reiterated where my comments were from.
I’m not avoiding dodger stadium dimensions. Both parks have benefits and detractions. If you look at the spray chart some of JDs balls to CF would be HR in LA but are outs in the deepest part of fenway CF. The majority or JDs doubles had nothing to do with the monster in LF.
The CF triangle in fenway is 420 feet. So where ever you are taking 390ft in cf for fenway is off by a good bit. It’s an abnormally shaped ballpark for sure, unlike LA.
Also, for your edification, here’s the FULL OF wall dimensions, since you are cherry picking numbers and ignoring the quick taper away from poles, RF drops super sharp from pesky’s pole to being DEEPER than LA:
LA: 330, 360, 375, 400, 375, 360, 330
BOS: 310, 379, 390, 420, 380, 302
You will notice that, as a whole, it’s harder to hit a ball out in fenway, and, the weather is more favorable for HR hitting at LA for more of the year as well.
Cite to an SI article:
si.com/.amp/mlb/2021/03/24/mlb-outfield-walls-rank…
Can’t say it’s an overpay when Turner will provide defense as well. Granted he’s past his prime but it still adds value. The next CBA though needs tweaking. This deal should be $15m in 23 with a player only option at $6.7m for 24. That’s the plaver benefit. He re-ups if he has a bad injury but otherwise he’s again a free agent or they agree on a new one year deal for 24.
In fairness to JDM, his power is also to right center and lost homers at Fenway.
The only reason for Turner to not opt out is a Paxton type decision due to a list season. If he performs and the Sox want him back, the two sides can negotiate a new deal, etc.
What about the 375 right center dimension?
@GASox you have some validity to your argument but also remember that Turner can play third and may even play first, filling in needed positions.
JD can barely play the field. Part of why Turner was signed is because he can play the diamond. Some money should be factored for this and it’s laughable you’re arguing over 5 million when they had very similar seasons.
Fenway is definitely more of a hitter’s park than Dodger Stadium. Are we really arguing this point? Turner likes to get the ball into the air too. I can see him having success there with the Green Monster. He is aging though so we’ll see if he can still catch up with the high heat.
after everything that everyone wrote I don’t know how you an sit there with a strait face say that I’m wrong. His offensive production compared to his previous years did fall off a cliff. We saw a decline in 2021 and it continue into 2022. by every statistical measure it was his worse offensive year.
Absolutely overall Fenway is a better park to hit in but JDM when he’s on, hits everywhere but he loves that right center power alley which is tough in Boston.
Their offense is basically the same and its safe say that Turner’s double numbers will go up next season. Turner can also play a couple different postilions.
==============================
That’s about the size of it. Similar offense, and JT can substitute at 3rd and a little at 1st.
1) JDM didn’t fall off a cliff last season, and
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It wasn’t a cliff, but his fall over the past 4 years has been a bit more precipitous than JT.
OPS+ JD JT
2018 173 151
2019 139 130
2021 128 120
2022 117 116
Honestly, these two signings are fairly identical in overall value. My guess is that Bloom offered a little bit more money just in case he couldn’t sign Devers.
Justin Verlander was in a huge decline after 2014 too.
Jd looked horrific in second half. Trust me
did you really just use a hall of pitcher’s one bad season as a comp to JD martinez? that’s insulting to both of them
JD Martinez hit 4 HRs to right center and right. He hit 12 to left center and left. His power is definitely not to right center. Love modern technology, people cant make up narratives. He did hit several doubles to right field corner, but thats short in Fenway, so Dodger Stadium doesnt effect those.
Here’s what Im talking about:
1).baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=1d51da…
2)https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=43d86168-e364-4243-817e-c4af97c1fa73
3)https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=1289b188-f10c-471a-a05a-c60b3184a387
4)https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/details-on-justin-turners-red-sox-contract.html#comment-2809954
5)https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=02aa3bc3-81b0-4068-bacd-158fa4d44d28
6)https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a647e1ab-30d7-4495-ba27-939d217e25a3
7)https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a6143005-b7eb-49b8-af4b-e256cf68c6c6
8)https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=38d7a997-8b96-4209-a547-963da4e152ef
9)https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d3a1287a-c3cd-4880-b9d2-d471f58778b0
10)https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7a220e4b-b3ec-4bb6-855a-33557bc9a539
What happens to JD’s slugging when these are outs in LA?
JD did not use Right Center last year. Look at his spray chart.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/j-d-martinez-…
But, he did in 2021:
Click on the ‘2022’ at the top of the chart
How can you compare those two charts and not admit he lost something. He lost a lot.
It was literally a joke. Sarcasm.
In all honesty, people kept claiming Verlander was done in 2014, that he was washed up and look where he is. I don’t think either JD or Turner are done yet. They have some years in them IMO. But to just assume one is more finished than the other, you don’t have much facts to base that. Players have bad years too, like Verlander in 2014.
Yes, as in Yankee Stadium with the short porch leading to HR’s, the Green Monster has been very kind to RedSox hitters in general that can either pull or go to left, and JD was definitely in that group….it just is, and remember both teams get up to hit in every game so more power to the oddities of any major league ballpark.
“I was initially responding to acell… then you butted”
Acell wasn’t talking to you. So weren’t you “butt”ing in on him? Don’t post on a public comment board, if thats your attitude.
Huntington, you were the one getting in a huff and asking why I was talking about stuff you never said. If you don’t want to take the time to read a whole comment thread, fine, but don’t automatically assume everything anyone says is directed at you, and only at you. That’s narcissistic and isn’t a good trait in anyone.
Or do you forget writing this:
===================
“JDM is not an inferior hitter than Turner, at least not in 2022”
Where did I say he was? Are you reading my posts?
not for nothing GASoxfan but you did insert yourself into the conversation. My response wasn’t directed at you but to the OP. I have no problem with people responding to what I say whether or not I started the the post. in this case as pretty much in every post that’s on this site you really don’t have a leg to stand on when complaining about people butting in as you did the exact same thing. It’s pretty much the nature of comment sections.
Oh, don’t get me wrong Acell, I take the same approach as you – it’s like being in a room with dozens of people all talking back and forth.
Perhaps my language choice of ‘butting in’ was and is an incorrect choice, and i’ll admit that and own it, but, the real issue that came up was Huntington getting some attitude thinking everything I said was personally directed at him and then him launching into various attacks as if I didn’t read things before responding.
I don’t think there’s a public comment board that operates in any different sort of way. It’s what other sites have private messages and such for. Not a thing here, but, again, my point wasn’t as much about taking offense to Huntington entering the convo, it was more him thinking everything was a personal response to him, and only him, and then as I said, going off the rails because of that narcissistic assumption.
GASox – I’m sitting this one out.
Quite honestly, I don’t care that Bloom overpaid. It’s better than going cheap at DH with a combination of Dalbec and Ref.
I guess you can say I’ve lowered my expectations.
Fever, I’m just expecting at some point we will hear about being out of money blah blah blah.
On the one hand you are right about the risks of spare parts DH and being glad it isnt the ultimate path… on the other hand, giving Cora too many spare parts that he keeps shuffling around is bad for the lineup getting settled and playing time issues. We’ve seen that problem in the past.
My expectations remain the same as they had been, getting back to competent competition like we had in the Theo and DD years. They’ve got the money to spend, and, have been hemorrhaging assets by failing to make trades. One thing, among many, that DD was good at is bundling together a pile of middling talent to get a mlb caliber player. Instead we watch pieces leave in rule 5 and get dfa’d then claimed or released via waivers. You’re not going to trade that for an all-star often, but, could easily do a 4-for-1 on a setup man in the pen, or, a lower cost and better bat super-sub than hernandez.
GASox – They are $14M under the threshold right now, so I don’t think money will be an issue. Anybody they sign at this point will be at a fraction of that amount, and they should still have space remaining to acquire players at the trade deadline (I know, unlikely).
Looking around the diamond, there’s only one established quality player that we can trust – Devers.
I do think Yoshida will turn out to be a great player, but there’s always risks with Japanese players coming over and their first year is often a down one because of adjusting to baseball in America.
The numbers from Hernandez’s last four regular seasons (.237/.310/.406) are all below his career line, which wasn’t good to start with.
Verdugo is simply an average player, and his numbers prove it. He’s declined significantly each of the past two seasons.
We all know how much Story has declined over the years, along with an arm injury that may or may not be healed.
I’m hoping Casas lives up to expectations, but certainly there’s no guarantee he will.
Catching situation? McGuire raked in a Red Sox uniform, but we can’t put too much stock in 36 meaningless games.
Fortunately the Orioles didn’t do much in the offseason, so maybe they can be caught. But I have a hard time believing our Sox will be any better than 4th this year. Hope I’m wrong.
But, you were talking to me. Do you not remember? Several of your posts are directed to me. And if you want to kick me out of the conversation, do it in the first post not the 5th or 6th.
can i make a suggestion. when replying to a post you should start with the person’s name and then your thoughts. tht might clear things up somewhat
Yup, I always try to do that, and sometimes add a snippet of what the other poster said.
GASoxFan and Fever – I get a big kick out of how some of these analysts on the site simply don’t understand the modern metrics. Someone might want to explain spray charts and how dependent they are on the pitching not the hitter, especially when it comes to HRs. Having a one year trend on a spray chart is like flipping a coin once and it comes up heads and expecting heads automatically on the next one.
As far as the Turner deal goes, the price is below his value so Bloom got one right BUT he’s injury prone so the discount may not pay off depending on his time on the IL (Think of a hitter version of Rich Hill – cheap but likely to play only 2/3 of the games).
Losing JD allows many Bloom supporters to bad mouth the guy after all he did to raise the Red Sox up off the mat after Papi was gone and win them a ring. JD peaked in 2018. Every month of the season he hit near .333. After that he’s been inconsistent like Devers and others. One month low .200s next month high .300s. Some years he’s had great Aprils and Septembers and other years he’s had great Mays and Augusts. In 2022, he hit .278 in April, .406 in May then suddenly fell off the table in June against the bad pitching staffs. He carried the team when they were playing the AL East and were getting beat up and then suddenly dropped against bad pitching.
For all you brilliant analysts out there saying old age suddenly caught up with him – that’s ridiculous. Clearly, JD either lost his timing or was battling an injury or both. It happens all the time to elite baseball players. A sore wrist, a nagging back and the average drops and fans declare that the player is getting old or simply stinks. Former players comprehend the ups and downs of a season and arm chair analysts don’t.
JD will thrive in LAD and no CHART from fangraphs can capture the entirely new circumstances he will be dealing with. Here are several reasons to expect a much improved JD:
1 – LAD does not have a toxic environment like there is in Boston with Bloom
2 – He will be reunited with Mookie who he was a close friend with in Boston
3 – He will be reunited with the hitting coach that took him from being an average hitter to a top 5 hitter by 2018
4 – With a more symmetrical ball park pitchers will struggle initially trying to find his weaknesses in the new park
5 – He will be surrounded by better hitters. If LAD’s front office is as good as their reputation is then he’ll bat 3rd behind Freeman. He’ll could lead the league in RBIs if LAD is smart.
I’m not ready to stick a fork in JD and declare him done. I think he’s a likely candidate for comeback player of the Year in 2023. Meanwhile, Turner is going to be shocked by the toxic environment in Boston and be regretting his choice by mid year. He’ll see all the errors by Devers and go to Cora and tell him he’s a far superior defender and Cora will ignore him just like all the other better defenders that have wanted to help the team by moving Devers to DH.
Where will Boston finish? That’s simple. If we go by talent, not knowing who will be impacted by injuries the Red Sox have the 5th most talent in the division and it’s not that close. Simply go by each position and you will see just how weak their outfield is, their catching, their first base, and the back half of their starting rotation. Then, consider whether Paxton will be the guy who pitched 5 to 10 years ago or a struggling rehab guy. Then consider whether Sale we’ll continue to have to deal with Cora and his poor understanding of what Sale needs. Things could get very ugly.
Take the worst talent, the worst manager and the worst GM and you’ll probably end up with the worst record. That’s simple logic that even the worst analysts can comprehend. I don’t expect Bloom’s paid team that writes on this site to agree but frankly I don’t care!!! hahaha
Fever, if they get 4th, consider it a major victory. The talent level is clearly a 5th and a brutal 5th at that. This team is likely going to fight for a top 5 draft choice in 2024 and that’s with a healthy Sale.(assuming Sale isn’t traded if he pitches well).
Pulledabloom – one thing you left out about Sale, and, because of the injuries it’s something bloom never experienced.
Sale, like some other aces before him, basically had a personal catcher this case in Leon who was a weaker overall player than Vazquez and others, but, you couldn’t argue with the results because of how he raised an ace’s game. You threw any other guy behind the plate and sale was instantly like a #4/5 sp, but, give him HIS guy behind the dish and all of a sudden you had one of the best aces in baseball.
Bloom isn’t going to have that guy behind the plate for sale, and, won’t make that kind of concession to a player. I don’t expect to see anything great from sale as a result unless blind luck creates instant chemistry there, but, won’t know until we see
“LAD does not have a toxic environment like there is in Boston”
Sorry to say this but, you are a Toxic Environment element.
Pulled:
“LAD does not have a toxic environment like there is in Boston with Bloom”
You are one of the “toxic” elements that creates the environment. And please, please dont say its just Bloom. As soon as a new player stumbles out of the gate, Trevor Story, Franchy Cordero, JBJ, they are considered terrible players. You don’t think they hear the noise? And how do you think ‘Free Agents view coming to Boston? If I have 2 bad months, the haters will nitpick everything.’
Edgar Renteria is the poster child for the effect you guys put on players. All-Star season before Boston, All-Star the season after. Yet, the whole time from Spring Training forward the haters layed into him. He made 30 errors, never in his career had he had anything close to that number. Route for something badly enough, youll get it.
I know you won’t, because you think youre on some sort of crusade, but you need serious self-evaluation.
I think you are wrong. this article says that Turner is guaranteed a little over 8 .25 million this year then if doesn’t opt out the just over 13 million next yr. Guy has more value than jD as he can actually play an iF position if needed. I have not supported much of what Bloom has done this offseason but this seems like a good move to me. Now find a way to pick up Trevor Bauer on the cheap and things will look a lot better.
you want that miscreant Trevor Bauer? no thanks..
not really but if the price is right I think he would be worth the risk. Given his situation I think he’d be on his best behaviour and when right is a top of the rotation SP. I would rather go this route rather than deal Casas of Rafaela to the Marlins for one of their pitchers.
Absolutely not worth the risk. Guy got the longest suspension in MLB history for a reason. He’s a garbage person who has no business being on MLB team
Guy has more value than jD as he can actually play an iF position if needed.
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I think that’s 100% correct. Whether it is $1M in value too high or too low won’t matter much. Bloom valued JT’s versatility.
Agreed
JoeBrady = JT does have versatility but that will only help if there is an injury. If Devers is healthy they won’t play JT at 3B where he is far superior defender and play Devers at DH. The JT diversity will be wasted.
We all hope Casas or Dalbec will have a big year so once again JT’s versatility is likely to be wasted. He really isn’t a middle infielder nor outfielder so his versatility while outstanding can’t be used because Cora manages with blinders on. So is his versatility worth paying extra for if it’s not going to be used?
If it were me, I’d start JT at 3B every day and let him tell me when he needs a day off to DH and let Devers make his errors that day. If that were the case, Bloom got a steal with JT but we all know that won’t happen.
JT will be sorely missed in LA. I have known him since our days at CSUF. He’s a great human being that works hard, plays the game the right way and never gives up. Tragic the Dodgers let him get away. Hopefully Red Sox fans treat him well.
From 2015-2019 Justin Turner had some huge hits in the post season for the Dodgers, especially that 2017 post
To be fair Turner played 66 games at 3B last season compared to JD’s 0 in the field so that helped Turner’s WAR be higher than JD’s. I wouldn’t expect Turner to even play half that many games in the field next season and probably wouldn’t expect Martinez to play any games in the OF (even though it will probably kill Roberts to have a DH only type on the roster)
To RSox: You dont think Turner will play 33 games in the field next year?
1) No one’s going to get injured and need to be filled in for.
2) Casas (L), Devers (L), Turner (R), You don’t think he’s going to platoon with Casas, adding the fact Casas doesnt hit lefties well, and spell Devers once in a while, (Devers only played 141 games last year) and accumulate more than 33 games.
I’ll take that “33” games in the field bet, and give you 4 to 1 odds.
Bobby Dalbec and Christian Arroyo are still around, are RH hitters and play those same positions and also 2B/SS. The value in Turner is his bat and keeping that in the lineup should be the priority. Devers and Casas’ off days are covered
Makes no sense to me, this is clearly they wanted it to be a one year deal, then why didn’t you sign. JD who signed for LESS money with the Dodgers?!
This is one of the craziest contracts I’ve ever heard of. He he plays reasonably he gets 15 mil and out the door after one year. If he plays like crap he gets 22 mil for two years, but is still probably dfa second year, and so is still out the door after one year. Congrats on this one CB!
These details seem awfully personal. It’s odd that MLBTR has kept the comments open thus allowing people to express their opinions on the matter.
How do you explain the drop off of JDM? He was. Premier slugger in mlb. And just dropped off. It’s really strange. After all the investigations on cameras and watches and banging on garbage cans. Video rooms and such. Martinez went from a fearsome force in the Red Sox lineup to a easy out in 2 years. I’m not sure what the Sox are doing, turner is basically the same hitter. It will be a interesting year at Fenway.
@FG3 – Almost certainly age-related. I had not realized this until I went through it, but the reflexes take a nose-dive in a short period of time. In essence, there are general timelines for peak athleticism where one stays on a relatively level plane. (early twenties to early thirties).
There is an early to mid-thirties drop that will occur within a short period. Then the new level is retained for another period of years (usually into early to mid-forties) and so on.
The truly elite athlete can weather that reduction in two ways…first, they started at a higher level of peak performance so they are simply regressing to a still relatively high level. Second – they make enough adjustments to compensate for some of that loss and work their tails off to maintain the sharpest performance.
Carver – JD’s history should be looked at more in depth. Struggling in 2013 he found a new hitting instructor who changed his approach and over=night and not related to age he blossomed. He peaked at age 30 in 2018. That said, his peak was so prolific that he became a top 5 hitter with .330 average and a 1.030 OPS along with 43HRs, 111 R and 130 RBIs.
Coming down from those numbers isn’t caused by age it’s caused by normal regression after a peak. Nobody maintains top 5 numbers every year. His 2019 numbers saw his OPS+ drop from 173 to 139. 139 is top 5% of MLB players. Yes, it’s a drop off but a completely understandable drop off.as you mentioned.
2020 was a huge change year. Video reviews were removed. His long time trainer got a job with the Dodgers and JD struggled badly in 2020. Was it because he was 32 and over the hill? I don’t think so. I believe the changes severely impacted him along with losing his close friend Mookie. The clubhouse was shaken in 2020. The new sheriff in town just ran the star player out of town and everyone wondered if they were next.
2021 saw JD rebound with a .286 average and .867 OPS. Yes that is down from his peak but it’s still top 10% of MLB hitters. His HRs fell back to 28 which was more comparable to his years in DET but still very good. At 33 he was still a highly productive hitter who was wrongfully moved down in the order which severely impacted his productivity. Did his drop come from age? No, it came from the reduced opportunities thanks to Cora. Cora never showed him much respect, even in 2018 when he was matching Mookie step for step as they chased the MVP.
Players of size like Miggy, Panda, Pujols and Devers drop off dramatically in their early 30s but JD isn’t an overweight player. He will slope downward from his peak in 2018 but his slope should be far more gradual than guys like Miggy and Pujols. In 2022, he was solid in April and was phenomenal in May while everyone but Bogey was struggling. Then in June when they won so many games against really bad opponents he struggled. Why? Sudden onset of old age? Or is it more likely that he had an undeclared injury he was trying to play through that might have thrown off his timing? He may have one day decided he can’t hit any more or he may have struggled due to “issues”. These issues could have been contract related, family related, health related or a combination of all three but in his entire history in the MLB that dates back 12 years he’s never had four bad months in a row.
The change of location, manager, GM and organizational culture may make all the difference in the world in 2023. Mookie thrived in LA after his deal. I expect JD to do the same. He will be 35 in 2023 so expectations of a top 5 finish in hitting are unrealistic but he has his old hitting instructor back and he’s hitting in a bigger park so his average should rise and if he healed or resolved the issues from the 2022 season his HRs should return but to a somewhat lower level due to the field. What is a .280 to .300 hitter with 90 runs and 100 rbis worth? He won’t be stealing bases and he won’t be playing defense but he’ll still provide enough production to justify a $20MM a year salary. LAD got him for $10MM.
Very smart move by LAD compared to the JT move by Bloom. JD has much more upside, is 3 years younger, is reunited with his hitting instructor and his old buddy Mookie. Bloom loses once again. Anyone surprised? NOPE!!!
Did his drop come from age? No
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Of course it came from age. Every non-PEDs player ages. And there is nothing unusual here either. Ignoring 2020, his OPS+ was:
2018 173
2019 139
2021 128
2022 117
It has nothing to do with JD; all players get older. Your most productive offensive years are age 28-29. You decline gradually for 2-3 years until age 32-33, where the decline is more rapid.
But it is impossible to suggest that he isn’t getting older, and isn’t in decline.
This reminds me of a 2013 deal when the Sox overpaid players for short term deals which worked out well. I don’t think you can compare to JD to Turner who has a different skill set. It seems like a depth signing not a offensive signing. If Casas does struggle as a rookie, your covered. Meanwhile if Turner hit’s 270 with 10-15 Hrs at DH thats a good floor.
Absolutely. Casas is no guarantee, neither is Christian Arroyo, with his injury history, who I do hope we start.
I heard past reports that Turner may also play first, so it gives us some flexibility.
Also, people are expecting JD to bounce back, so why can’t we expect Turner to do the same? I know age but still…
Let’s remember Turner was signed before Devers agreed to his Extension. Bloom needed a 3 B back-up plan. I love the signing. It will be another voice of professionalism for Dalbec, Devers, Casas and reuniting with former Dodgers Verdugo, Jansen and Wong.
He will be a clubhouse presence we lost with Xanders departure.
I wrote the same thing above. I’m guessing here, but my guess is that had Devers not signed, he’d have been traded. We had to have plan B.
Not that this would happen–IF Bloom found someone interested in trading for Devers AND had a couple of good young pitchers and a can’t-miss 3B, he might just pull the trigger. We still have almost 2 months before Pitchers & Catchers report
Yes, a veteran in that clubhouse who’s been through wars is going to be a big boost for the Red Sox…..here’s hoping Turner has good years with the Sox and look forward to the battles he’ll have with my Yankees…..
mad – Not for nothing, but Wong was never an LA Dodger.
However Martin and Hernandez were.
And with JT’s arrival, it likely means goodbye to Dalbec.
You are correct about Wong not having played for the LA Dodgers. A Wikipedia Note indicates he has played every position except pitcher in the Minors.
I feel, from a previous posting on MLBTR, Casas may be gone sooner than later to Miami for pitching.
I do think, perhaps, the Sox could find a trade partner to give Dalbec a fresh start someplace else.
Their number feels light, but Cots has us at only $217.5M. We can still add a pretty decent player.
“The Vayner Sports client …”
And there’s the reason he’s on the Red Sox.
Not a Boras client. Done with that a$$.
I would rather have Turner, and his ability to play third and first here and there, along with his clubhouse leadership. Perplexing move by the dodgers.
Lefty – JD has played 12 years and for the first time had four bad months in a row which leads me to believe there were issues causing the sudden dramatic downturn. Aging doesn’t suddenly happen. He hit over .400 in May of 2022. Something impacted his hitting.
With four bad months he finished with 117 OPS. That ranked 3rd among the starting hitters. That’s how bad the team was in 2022. 117 is slightly above league average. The next highest starter was Story at 102 which is league average.
Turner in 2022 had an OPS of 116. One point below JD who struggled for four months. That speaks volumes to how good Turner is. He’s league average, old and can’t play the field regularly so he offers very little beyond JD in the field. Yes, he COULD play 1B or 3B but will Cora play him there? Not likely if Casas or Dalbec is looking good at 1B.
Projecting Justin’s numbers one would expect roughly 120 starts. He’s only played in 150 games in a season twice in 14 seasons. Last year he played in 128 games but he got starts at 3B and 1B and that’s not as likely in Boston unless Casas is a bust and lets all hope that isn’t the case.
JD projects to provide roughly the equivalent of $20MM worth of productivity and JT projects closer to $12MM to $15MM if he stays healthy. LAD got JD for half price or $10MM and Bloom got Justin for $10.85MM. Both are excellent deals since the projected value is higher than the projected cost but LAD got the much better deal. I fully expect JD to be in the running for comeback player of the year despite having a reasonable 117 OPS in 2022.
No question JD is the better player of the two. Should be fun to see how Turner enjoys the toxic environment. He’ll be regretting his choice by June!!
JD projects to provide roughly the equivalent of $20MM worth of productivity and JT projects closer to $12MM to $15MM
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I’m not sure what site you are getting your productivity projections, but Fangraphs projects JD for 1.3 fWAR and JT for 1.5 fWAR.