The international signing market is well underway. We can think of these mostly 16-year-old boys as transplanted seeds. Some of them will grow big and strong over the next half-decade. Others will sprout then later wither during a drought or cold spell. Many won’t take to the new soil in which they’re planted. Perhaps the soil is too base or acidic. Or maybe a team thought they were buying one type of seed and actually got another. The wrong type of nurturing can ruin a plant. As outside observers, we can check back in a year or three once these youngsters have taken to their new soil.
Plant metaphor aside, we have a honking update from Baseball America to chew upon this week. They’ve released their initial 2023 Top 100 Prospects list. I’m pleased to point out that Big Hype Prospects has correctly anticipated several notable surges up the prospect ranks, most notably number one overall Gunnar Henderson, number three Jackson Chourio, and number five Andrew Painter. Today, I’ll focus on a few names who have shot up the ranks.
For those of you who have been frustrated by the lack of “Big Hype” in our offseason prospects coverage, this is the episode for you.
Five BHPs In The News
James Wood, 20, OF, WSH (A)
(R/A) 348 PA, 12 HR, 20 SB, .313/.420/.536
Wood drew attention as the principal return in the Juan Soto trade. While he was joined by several promising young players, Wood is now seen as the “big get” in the deal. One concern from professional evaluators is the lack of successes from the Nationals development pipeline. While they’ve had a few big stars over the years (i.e. Soto), they’ve also seen a number of top prospects vastly underperform expectations (i.e. Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom).
If we assume the club doesn’t find some way to spoil Wood, there’s considerable upside here. Wood is built like a young Oneil Cruz. He’s a lean, physical giant with above-average speed, light tower raw power, a surprising feel for contact, and natural plate discipline. Like many young players, his contact profile is still geared toward ground balls. He also has an all-fields approach which has helped with his BABIPs at the expense of home runs. These will be the areas of his game likeliest to differentiate between a core performer or superstar future. Wood ranks 11th on the new Top 100 list.
Jackson Holliday, 19, 2B/SS, BAL (A)
(R/A) 90 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .297/.489/.422
The first overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday checks in as the 15th prospect per Baseball America. In limited exposure, he demonstrated pristine plate discipline and only rarely whiffed. The Orioles have recently garnered a sterling reputation when it comes to developing middle infielders. Holliday is still built like a typical 19-year-old athlete. He’s expected to add weight in the coming years. Scouts believe he’ll grow into 60-grade power. “Grow” is the operative word. Holliday and the Orioles will want to be careful. Too much growth could lead to a future as a second baseman with average or worse speed. Too little growth could leave his bat lacking thump.
Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AA)
(A+/AA) 115 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.96 ERA
Williams looks the part of a future ace, combining an effective upper-90s heater with a plus slider and curve. Like many power pitchers, his changeup flashes as usable but lags behind the other offerings enough that it’ll play fourth fiddle. A fly-ball pitcher with average command, Williams should be ready to contribute in Cleveland this season – health allowing. Williams is rated 20th by Baseball America. Between him and fast-rising Daniel Espino (19th-ranked), the Cleveland rotation could feature two lethal aces by the start of 2024.
Endy Rodriguez, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 531 PA, 25 HR, 2 SB, .323/.407/.590
Back in September, my sources were talking about bumping Rodriguez onto their Top 100 lists. I said the following:
Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.
Rodriguez now ranks 23rd. Victory lap complete, Rodriguez is on the cusp of reaching the Majors. The Pirates have quietly given their roster a chance to “surprise contend.” One position they’ve done little to solve is catcher. They’re currently set to roll out a duo of defensive specialist Austin Hedges and perennial third-catcher Tyler Heineman.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHI (MLB)
(A/A+) 423 PA, 16 HR, 32 SB, .312/.376/.520
Crow-Armstrong is spoken of as a Kiermaierian defender, giving him one of the highest floors in the entire minor leagues. On this strength, Baseball America has ranked him 25th. Concerns about his hit tool have been alleviated following a successful 2022 campaign. It’s now believed he’ll settle in as an above-average hitter in addition to being the best defensive outfielder in the league. While that sounds like the profile of an easy Top 10 prospect, there are still enough ways for his bat to stumble to merit caution. The next hurdle for him is to see how his bat reacts to higher-quality breaking balls in the upper minors.
Five More
Kodai Senga, NYM (29): This column typically avoids international free agents. Technically, Senga is a prospect and ranks 16th. From the perspective of immediate contribution, only Henderson and Corbin Carroll are in the same stratosphere. Of course, Senga’s advanced age reduces his “value” as a prospect.
Evan Carter (20): Carter, another guy whose rise was anticipated by this column, is frequently comped to Brandon Nimmo. The left-handed hitter is carried by plate discipline and a feel for contact. His power isn’t a total zero, but it lags behind his other hitting traits. He might top out as a 20-homer threat, or he might not climb that far. Even so, he’s a high-probability future core performer. He’s ranked 26th. Teams value these sorts of players – just look at what Nimmo earned in free agency.
Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): There’s disagreement about which of the Diamondbacks young pitchers will turn out as the best performer. Baseball America has hitched its stakes to Pfaadt after his breakout 2022 campaign. He ranks 27th. We discussed him last week.
Marco Luciano, SFG (21): At one point, Luciano was trending toward top overall prospect status – much the way Chourio is now. Some of Luciano’s skills haven’t developed as expected, and his meteoric rise has stalled to a more gradual approach to the Majors. Luciano, 37th-ranked, still projects as a prodigious power hitter, one with flaws and a future move down the defensive spectrum.
Kevin Parada, NYM (21): At 50th on the list, Parada’s was the first name to catch me entirely by surprise. The 11th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Parada ranks where he does due to promising offensive traits and roughly average defense. Parada was taken with the compensation pick for not signing Kumar Rocker in 2021. Rocker, you might note, does not rank in the Top 100.
The term “big hype” is not meant to be insulting, but it almost sounds like you’re implying over hyped.
I don’t read it that way at all.
Soooo over-hyped ! But what are ya gonna do ??
It was bad enough giving up a 1st round pick for 3 months of a clown like Baez at all, but if he actually turns into something? God.
Of course everyone who thought it was a good idea at the time will be blasting the Mets for making that trade.
The Mets originally had Rodriguez too
And traded him for Joey Lucchesi. Blech.
Baez wasn’t the problem in ’21. The rest of the team didn’t show up. In 186 PAs, Baez had 9 HRs and hit .299/.371/.515. .886 OPS/140 OPS+.
Last year, same team, same result. So, doesn’t seem to have been a Baez problem.
“Last year, same team, same result.”
2021 Mets – 77-85
2022 Mets – 101-61
So no. Not ‘same results’.
Choke job, not record.
I hate that too. I was shocked when we let PCA go. I immediately knew it was a grave mistake. Imagine, if we held onto him, he very well could have been our CF this year, negating the Nimmo contract and giving us the stolen bases we desperately need, not to mention more $ for other needs.
Unless he has an amazing year in the minors, he won’t be ready for that leap til ’24. That’s why the Cubs took a one year flyer on Bellinger.
5 of these guys will not make it, 3 will underperform, the other 2 will be good/great
And Wood will be HOF
Any Wood is a good situation for any team.
Especially Natalie
Evan Carter will be a stud starting LF for the Rangers in 24
If our favorite team doesn’t trade him for Reynolds or blow up his development… not necessarily a given here
Kumar Rocker will probably be a bust. Almost every pitcher the Rangers have drafted after Kevin Brown has been a bust. Probably will happen to Jack Leiter too. Who knows why they haven’t been able to develop an Ace by now.
They also screw up hitters. Look at Jurickson Profar. That guy was consensus number 1. Only 1 top ranked guy since MLB.com started ranking guys earlier this decade has been worse: Bennintendi. All the other number 1 guys have either been much better or have yet to quite make it. But, they have to try. They fired half their minor league coaches, and they got new coaches. Who knows? They did have success with Maddux. You can’t just buy a bunch of 10 MM to 20 MM free agents. That adds up to 390 if the average is 15 million. At some point, you have to develop. Maybe they could have spent some of that wasted money on Semien instead on hiring some decent minor league pitching coaches Are you a Rangers’ fan?
*bad, I mean – Profar was easily the worst by leaps and bounds
Atopped reading after you said Benintendi was a bigger disappointment than profar. One player worth 16 wins one worth 6.
I corrected that. Literally just read the next comment…
I am. I’ve been a season ticket holder for a decade. You’re right about Profar. I’m praying to God that Jung works out.
I am. I’ve been a season ticket holder for a decade. You’re right about Profar. I’m praying to God that Jung works out. What’s happened to Leody? He was a big hype guy a few years ago and hasn’t looked that great at the MLB level
Texas has this absurd mentality in recent years that they seemingly want guys to ignore the count and aim for the corners. This leads to one of the highest BB rates in MLB and one of the lowest K rates in MLB. Why? On 0-2, guys like Martin Perez (more so in his first stint, but also now) decide to pour it in and give up homeruns or hits. Then, it’s 3-0 on another guy and they decide to paint the corners on a weak hitter. I have gotten so sick of this development in the minors and majors. Thankfully, they got 3 starters with a 5+ K/BB ratio, including one who has had a double-digit ratio the last two seasons. Hopefully, Martin Perez and the old Texas mindset don’t wear off onto them. Even the top guys in the very early 2010s like Wilson, Ogando, Feliz (for a short time), Harrison, and Holland had poor K/BB ratios. I get not wanting to give up hits and homeruns, but look at guys like Dennis Santana (since traded), Brett Martin, John King, and Glenn Otto. There is certainly a skill aspect to it, but if a team keeps producing guys like this for over a decade and only the free agents have good stuff and command, that’s sad. So many guys throw 100 or close to it and yet screw up. I’d say fire Kip F ____ a _____ gg (it censors his name for some reason) and wipe out everyone. Only former MLB regulars or Ivy League-types and nobody else should be hired at the top levels. Chris Young has a degree from Princeton and former MLB success, and JD had a Cornell degree. More people like that are needed.
I thought Groucho Marx recited the first paragraph…..
and that’s a high compliment!
Just reread it, and I think you’re right
If Pca continues on the torrid pace of last year he may end up being a late season call up depending on where the cubs are at in the standings. There is ALOT to like about this kid and he isn’t the only OF prospect the cubs have up their sleeves. They fleeced the mets on that one though.They may have gotten the future starting outfield from the Baez,Rizzo, and Bryant trades. I like Canario a ton and Alcantra may end up being better than both of them.
Could be Pauly. But I don’t see ‘that much’ happening in 2023 for PCA. That would be expecting a whole lot.
I’ll be more than pleased if PCA has a solid year (say 290/365/480) at AA ball this summer. And justifies a move to Iowa before the end of the summer.
That would set him up for the AZ Fall league and a MLB call up, sometime in 2024.
I’d be happy with that as well.
Test!
Do you accept invites on LinedkIn?
The first time I saw Rodriguez was 2021 at Daytona. His bat speed immediately stood out. Not to mention he was one of the few catchers who didn’t throw the ball into the outfield in low A. A month or so later we saw him in Port St. Lucie. Again, he stood out with his swing and his play behind the plate. Last summer we caught him in high A at Greensboro. Not his best defensive night but he didn’t disappoint at the plate. Who wouldn’t want to have a switch hitting catcher with power and speed (oh yes, he can run) along with good defense. I’m curious to see him play other positions.
This is clearly a best case scenario/99th percentile outcome type thought process but Endy and Henry Davis have the potential to be an absolute force of a catching tandem. With Endy getting spot starts at second and Henry getting an occasional game in RF or 1b and both sharing some DH duties, neither has to take on the physical toll of catching 100-120 games a year and it wouldn’t be hard to get both bats in the lineup on most days. The Bucs are right up there with the Blue Jays and Mets in terms of quality and depth for the foreseeable future at catcher.
I don’t see them sharing. If anyone moves off the position it would probably be Rodriguez because he profiles better with his speed and he already has experienced playing both IF and OF.
Pretty crazy that in 2023 prospect evaluators still don’t agree on what prospect eligibility is. What’s even more crazy is all three get it wrong. BA and BP both don’t understand that players can grade out of prospect status (which I think shouldn’t be a thing, but that’s still part of the rules), and MLB.com refuses to include international signees like Senga who signed over the international amateur age. Why do all three refuse to make a list of players that are, by the book, rookies?
@Darkside You bring up an interesting point. In my uninformed, unimportant opinion, I don’t think foreign free agents should be included in prospect lists. When they are, the lists are targeted for fantasy baseball leagues. I play and love fantasy baseball, but I think that the MLB list is the most correct in application. I see prospect lists as a way to monitor and evaluate minor league players. Senga signed for $75 million and will start directly in the majors. Just because he’s ROY eligible doesn’t make him a prospect. He’s a completely different animal than an 18 year old kid from the DR or from high school.
“Built like a young Oneil Cruz”… Cruz is only 23. Is he built like the 21 year old version of Cruz?
More like a 19-year-old Cruz
Kudos to the Mets scouts! Are you listening Jed?
Mets have done well drafting, just poor in trading. Kelenic and Crow-Armstrong are good examples. Hopefully they won’t trade any others – Alvarez, Parada, Baty. This is a team that had some solid drafts and could’ve fielded a solid team with all homegrown talent (Alonso, Nimmo, McNeil, Gimenez, Rosario).
“Kiermaierian” man, that’s a hard one to say out loud.