For this week’s post, let’s look at some prospects who might be affected by recent rumors….
Five BHPs In The News
Estevan Florial, 25, OF, NYY (MLB)
(AAA) 461 PA, 15 HR, 39 SB, .283/.368/.481
Although Florial has spent parts of three seasons in the Majors, he has just 63 plate appearances to his name. The left-handed hitter has yet to find success in New York, batting a combined .185/.302/.278. Now out of minor league options, Florial is poised to participate in a good old-fashioned Spring Training battle for oufield playing time. Barring a trade, the Yankees are running out of free-agent challengers for in-house options like Florial, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa for left field. They also added Willie Calhoun and Rafael Ortega as non-roster depth.
It’s easy to spot Florial’s biggest weakness; no matter the quality of competition, he consistently posts a high swinging strike rate. Florial is also a disciplined hitter, which means he takes his fair share of looking strikes. These traits contribute to an over 30 percent strikeout rate. Successful hitters of this type (i.e. Kyle Schwarber) have an excellent quality-of-contact profile, but since Florial hasn’t yet demonstrated an ability make such contact, his future as a Major League regular is dependent on skills growth. Should his strikeout rates and/or quality of contact improve, he has easy double-plus speed and enough raw power to become an entertaining regular. Even if Florial remains a role player, his speed dovetails nicely with the new baserunning-related rules. Even if playing time might be hard to come by in the crowded New York outfield, Florial could serve as a useful pinch-runner and defensive replacement.
Ricky Tiedemann, 20, SP, TOR (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 78.2 IP, 13.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.17 ERA
A 2021 third-round draftee, Tiedemann is on the shortlist with the likes of Andrew Painter and Eury Perez for best pitching prospect aged 20 and under. We’ve covered him a few times within the confines of this column. The Blue Jays appear headed toward a Spring Training battle for the fifth starter role, and Tiedemann is an attractive (albeit longshot) option for the job. The southpaw has three plus pitches, although reports suggest he could do with more time in the minors to better learn how to command his offerings. An Opening Day roster spot seems implausible, but we could see Tiedemann in Toronto by midseason. One caveat is his workload, as he averaged just over four innings per start last season and typically faced between 17 and 20 batters. Between low per-outing and total innings, Tiedemann might be more focused on stretching out than contributing in 2023.
Jacob Amaya, 24, SS, MIA (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 567 PA, 17 HR, 6 SB, .261/.369/.427
We covered Amaya a little over a month ago when speaking of the Dodgers middle infield depth. The skinny is straightforward – he’s a patient hitter with a history of modest exit velocities and too much ground ball contact. The profile is that of a second-division starter or utility man. Acquired by the Marlins as the return for Miguel Rojas, Amaya should find his way to the Majors at some point this season – possibly Opening Day. Unlike higher-profile prospects, the Marlins have little incentive to worry about Amaya’s club control. He could potentially form a platoon with Joey Wendle or join Jon Berti and Jordan Groshans as flexible bench depth.
Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (MLB)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545
Tovar has just 23 plate appearances in Triple-A and another 35 in the Majors. Even so, the Rockies seem intent to include Tovar on the Opening Day roster. Colorado explored at least one trade of infielder Brendan Rodgers, and the free agent options to fill a middle infield role are beginning to dwindle. Even with Rodgers in the fold, Tovar could still garner a starting job. The shortstop is expected to have some issues with swinging strikes early in his career, particularly with breaking balls outside of the zone. An aggressive approach might help him to avoid strikeouts.
Miguel Vargas, 23, UT, LAD (MLB)
(AAA) 520 PA, 17 HR, 16 SB, .304/.404/.511
Major League pitchers figured out how to work above Vargas’ barrel in a limited 50 plate appearance trial last season. Vargas has both discipline and a feel for contact. The Dodgers are adept at deploying their hitters in beneficial matchups. Look for Vargas to form a very loose platoon with the likes of Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and James Outman across multiple positions. His reputation for barreling baseballs suggests he’ll adapt to high fastballs. If not, he can still be used against pitchers who lack that particular weapon or otherwise have poor command. He’s considered particularly adept at hitting breaking balls.
Three More
JJ Bleday, MIA (25): No longer rookie-eligible after making 238 plate appearances last season, Bleday nonetheless remains an unproven prospect with an uncertain future in Miami. Bleday did well to adapt his swing after a disappointing 2021 campaign, but he is an extreme flyball hitter who seems destined to require a friendlier home venue. The Marlins’ rumored interest in Max Kepler could affect Bleday’s opportunities in 2023.
Stone Garrett, WSH (27): A late-bloomer who signed with the Nationals early in the offseason, Garrett could be the next Patrick Wisdom. The sluggers aren’t perfect clones of one another, but they’re known for whiffing often and putting a charge into it when they connect. Garrett has an over-aggressive approach and questionable breaking ball recognition.
Brett Baty, NYM (23): Now that Carlos Correa has officially re-signed with the Twins, Baty should be back in the Mets long-term plans. The patient lefty hitter is expected to bat for a high average. Between power-suppressant CitiField and a grounder-oriented approach, Baty’s high exit velocities might not parlay into many home runs. His third base defense is considered below average, though I would hazard his baseline is higher than that of Alec Bohm. If Bohm can work his way up to acceptable defense, Baty should be able to do the same.
Damn, cant believe Florial is already 25.
Florial is NOT a big hype prospect, or even a prospect.
It’s unfortunate he plays for an organization that has NO value for their draft picks. Safe to say the other team that plays across town is also headed in the same direction of buying their rings.
Big hype means hugely exaggerated, so maybe you’re right.
I am sorry yes he was a big hype prospect. I guess you don’t remember when he was a potential international signee. He lied about his age and scouts thought he was younger. He was a beast and was expected to be the best of that year. They were talking about him getting a $5 million signing bonus. Then it came out that he lied and the offers dried up. The Yankees smelling a huge bargain pounced and got him cheap.
Yes I remember all that.
Still NOT a prospect.
Steven Florial = Billy Hamilton
You can’t steal First Base
Florial’s main issue is pitch recognition, and that’s something that can’t be taught. The Yankees know this, which is why he’s been given few ABs, but they’ve also kept him in AAA because he had options and served as defensive depth for CF. He’s out of options, which means his value to the organization is done. He won’t be with the team come Opening Day. The kid is physically a tool shed, but he has the worst kind of fatal flaw for a hitter. A second-division club might roster him because he’s better than their current 26th man, but he won’t be on the Yankees.
The only way Florial makes the roster is Cabrera is optioned or Hick’s is injured. Other than that ST is going to an opportunity to show some value so he doesn’t have to be dfa’d.
He K’s too much for someone who isn’t a 30+ hr guy. He also makes a lot of weak outs.
A hot spring could temporarily save him because of the LF situation, and that’s why the Yankees continue to hold him, waiting until they address LF. He has a tiny window here to show everyone they’re wrong, but my bet is he’s gone before opening day.
You and Stud brought up some awesome points in this thread; but I would like to add: although Florial would likely not have improved his approach I would have rather played him in LF to Hicks. If were going to give up a position anyway, at least let the young gun try it for the season. I’d have plenty of patience for Florial figuring himself out – I have none for veteran Hicks playing like a character from the Bad News Bears.
I was supremely disappointed to hear David Cone say that the Yankees owe it to Hicks to give him another shot to win the job in ST because he has three more years on his contract. To me that is wholly unacceptable, particularly in light of what he did/said regarding his play, Gallo & Roberts, and Boone.
Moreover, if he did turn it around it almost makes it worse because it reflects he just didn’t put forth the effort last season, while in a championship-contending team. Kick Aaron Hicks off this roster cause he doesn’t deserve a position, imo.
I’d also like to add that I am no fan of Florial’s offensive approach either. I agree with you guys that his swing is too long to achieve the intended results. But it begs the question: if the Yankees knew this, why in the world did they not trade him?!
I have no issue keeping Hicks in the mix. IMO there’s a better chance that he can be an average LF’er than Florial. Cabrera is still a wildcard. He’s not been a particularly disciplined hitter so it’s not a sure thing that he can adjust and continue progressing.
I hope they give him a solid run of at bats before shipping him to the A’s. He reminds me of Estrada and all he needed was some actual MLB at bats. Wish they had him in LF next year. But alas Cashman let him go for nothing just like every other one of his decent AAA players who couldn’t get time in NY and now play against them.
Yankees are gonna have to make a decision with Florial this year. He’s out of options and I’m sure there is at least one team willing to give him playing time, even as a 4th OFer.
Yeah, the should’ve traded him already since they’ve had no real intention of giving him a shot. However, now it’s worst-case scenario. His value has plummeted and they still have no interest in using him.
With his defensive prowess any team that fixes his swing (if possible) is going to get a starting CF.
@Clipper- not really sure how you feel? Isn’t it better to part ways with Hicks already and have a leftfield platoon of Florial and Cabrera out there? Your right though. I don’t think the Yankees will give Florial a shot out there. Which is crazy.
Yes, I agree Cap. I’d rather give Florial a full year out there (last year) and just get rid of Hicks. Hearing them talk about Hicks on Yes was nauseating enough…talking about his OBP of .330 like that makes a difference when he hits .213 and has a slug of .313 or whatever. Add in his lofty K percentages in the 33 percent range and he’s terrible.
And remember that last year he was finally healthy and going for a 30/30 season?! Lol
I agree, the occasional walk is about all the value Hicks brings. Though Idk where you’re getting 33%, but he only K’d 24.1% of the time last year.
Hm, I’ll double check that then, MLB1225, thanks. I have no idea where I got that from then. Either way he sucks, he just sucks slightly less (about 8-9%) than I thought…lol.
ST will be his showcase for a trade. While I would love for him to make the team based on merit, I don’t think Yankees will keep him bc he’s out of options and will try to get some value back. If either Ortega or Calhoun made the team, I think they would accept being sent back down to the minors if needed.
It’s incredible to me that Aaron Hicks is far less capable an OFer and strikes out 33% or whatever it was last year, yet Hicks starts and they won’t start Florial to give him more than 63 chances.
I’m not even a big fan of Florial’s offensive potential but he’s better than Hicks because he’s a true CF and can actually catch the ball.
The silver lining with Hicks is that he sees a lot pitches per plate appearance. A career high of 4.45 last year and averages above 4 PIT/PA per season which is well above ML average. That’s great and all but he has to actually hit the ball with some authority.
So uh, I heard the Twins might be trading Max Kepler. Probably to the Marlins maybe might be
@Buckner- you do realize Florial has only 63 plate appearances right. So yes he is still only 25 years old. Can we see him actually get an opportunity to play, before we start judging him? He can definitely help some team out there, that can play him everyday. He can play all 3 outfield positions and has speed and power. Give the kid a chance!
Stop.
A 25 year old, with 63 plate appearances is NOT a prospect. Welcome to 2023.
Probably with just about EVERY other organization, this kid would have HAD a chance to prove (or disprove) his alleged prospect status by now. But not the Yankees. Instead they have rolled out guys like Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks year after year, and make deals for guys like Joey Gallo and Josh Donaldson.
Part of this is on Florial. Learn to hit a curveball, kid.
But part of this is on his organization. Too bad.
@Buckner- 25 years old is still young, and Florial is still a rookie. So your comments make ZERO sense. Maybe you need to look up some information on rookie status for you own sake. Smh
Florial is no longer a prospect on service time. If I read it correctly I think they changed the rules on rookie eligibility for last season so theres a lot of dudes well shy of 130 AB who are no longer rookies. Stupid change or not, it is what was done.
Rookie status does not equal prospect status.
Maybe a team like the White Sox would be willing to take a low-cost gamble on Florial? How confident are they in Luis Robert in playing a full season? Gavin Sheets isn’t necessarily the best right field defender. Florial could be a 4th OF/late-inning sub. Are they really that confident that in the event of an injury, Leury Garcia can take over semi-regularly? Now that they lost Engel, they should look for a 4th OFer/
White Sox are like bottom 10 in terms of who needs a CF. Least of their problems. Marlins literally don’t have one on their roster. Rockies have been looking for a lefty who can play a good CF for years. Dodgers don’t really have a guy. Cardinals CF is really a RF.
I don’t really know any better about team needs but I would find it weird for the Cards to trade NYY a MLG regular CF then 6 months later trade for a AAAA CF player from them.
@mlb1225- yeah and that team that will give him opportunity to play everyday is likely the Pirates. So that would be great for Florial. I wish this kid my absolute best in the majors.
The best hope most Dodger prospects have at making this list is if they’re traded to another team or grabbed in the rule 5
Huh?
I don’t even know what you’re trying to say, but dodgers have a top five farm and managed to do so while winning 111 games last season
Is he talking about the best chance they have at playing time?
Remember when Cashman refused to include Florial in trade discussions for starting pitchers 5 years ago?
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Hindsight is 20-20. Teams always want to hold onto their prospects. Yankees also weren’t willing to let go of Florial, nor Andujar, Sheffield, or Torres in a Gerrit Cole trade in 2018.
Remember when mlb pipeline had florial as the #1 prospect in the Yankees system? They also had Sheffield, adams, Perez, abreu, Medina, Acevedo, Estrada, tate, and Sauer in the top 10. The O’s wanted Sheffield and at least 1 other in that list for Machado and Cashman refused any deal that included Sheffield.
Instead he shipped off sheffield for Paxton and his healthy back, and got nothing from everyone else. Oh they did get Donaldson’s bloated contract while Manny plays in SD.
Oh the Yankees are so blessed to have Cashman at the helm.
Yeah, Cashman’s greatest weakness is prospect hugging. Whether he just won’t deal them until it’s too late or is a terrible judge of talent, one thing is for sure, he’s made so many mistakes like that it’s hard to recall them all.
Clipper, I’m sure you’ve been asked before but given that response, I am curious. If you were the GM of NY, what is the maximum you would give up for Reynolds? Assuming you want him of course.
LostinTranslation: Great question… I’ll throw out a few qualifiers before answering to set the premise of my answer. First thing is, I loathe discussing player-for-player trades because there are always two constants: 1) My team’s players is worth more, and 2) I’m getting peak value for my player. So, I find it a bit easier to discuss trades a bit more generally.
With that said, the biggest problem with answering for me is that I have to trust these prospects are what the Yankees say they are. And, I am very confident at least a few (if not all) are overrated by the Yankees.
Keeping those in mind I say that I would be comfortable trading any 3-4 player combination for Reynolds *if he is our key to advancing*, which I believe he could be (think 2016 Cubs & Chapman). So, if Reynolds is that missing piece & Volpe really is that good, I am comfortable with anyone but Volpe.
Maximum total package? Peraza or Dominguez & 3 others. But, I don’t think I would do Peraza and Dominguez together. And I think that’s probably clear as mud….sorry.
No that makes sense.
So which sounds better from your perspective.
A) Dominguez, Wells, Jones, Beeter
B) Dominguez, Peraza, Beeter
I think the Pirates want a SP so they would probably want:
Dominguez, Peraza, Jones, Beeter, Warren or Dominguez, Volpe, ++, but I dont think NY does that.
Just picking your brain. Thanks.
Man, you’ve clearly put a lot of thought into this, which is really, really cool.
If I were the Bucs and I were given those two packages (A & B) to choose from, I would choose A for two reasons:
1) Bucs seem to have better crop of IF and Dominguez may be (hopefully) another Reynolds in the making, and
2) adding Wells & Jones together is incredible for this package, imho. Wells’ bat is reportedly advanced enough to be MLB-ready by as early as next season. Moreover, he’s improved defense to the point where he’s now projected by scouts to play as an average defender behind the plate.
Jones is moving through the system so fast he’s surpassed Dominguez in the prospect rankings already. He appears to be another offensive powerhouse. So, they would get two advanced LH bats (Wells/Jones) that are projected by many scouts to be clear big league contributors in the near future, with one being a C. That should line up with their contention window as well.
I agree with your assessment about the pitching as well. I believe the Pirates would be more inclined to add pitching to the package instead of the position players. As far as Cashman, I can say that he won’t trade Volpe at all. Moreover, I don’t believe he would trade Dominguez & Peraza together. In fact, he’s been pretty outspoken about not trading Peraza either.
At this point I don’t see them acquiring Reynolds because Cashman will not part with those certain prospects. I could also envision Jones being added to the ‘untouchable’ list after next season if he continues his rise through the system. My unrealistic hope as a Yankees fan is that these “untouchables” are who the Yankees say they are. History tells me I will be disappointed, unless we trade them!
Interesting. Thank you for the perspective.
I know Cashman is loathe to trade prospects but in all reality the top 5 of any system is likely to contain more regulars than All Stars. I thought Sanchez was going to be the next Posey (offensively). VERY WRONG THERE.
I think A or B would get it done and help both teams. I would lean towards A as well.
Anyway, thank you again!
Agreed. We can’t even forget to mention how this team has a horrible player development too.
International prospects are always over rated.some.of the evaluator develope “strong” feeling towards these guys, fantasizing about the physical “projections”. They also want to promote the guys to exemplify their own usefulness, hoping they get lucky.
16-18 yo boys.
Considering the economic and social systems some of these guys come from, MLB reps are walking around with a lot of power.
The MBL has instituted, and FORCED the transfer of MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ( 1/3 BILLION EVERY 2 YEARS) ,each and every year- outside of the United State of America.
Doesn’t really sound like a good system to me, but then again, I don’t live in the Bahamas……
I guess to a point I agree, but teams strike gold often enough that it’s a worthwhile investment I suppose. Mo Rivera, Jose Ramirez, Altuve, Cabrera, etc.
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Jays do some sort of piggyback situation with Tiedemann and Kikuchi. Kikuchi’s stuff played up out of the pen (over 16k/9 in a small sample size). They could have each of them throw 2 or 3 innings and then let the pen take over. Maybe not right off the bat as Tiedemann may need some more seasoning; but it seems like it could be a good way to get some productivity out of the 5th spot in the rotation while keeping Tiedemann’s innings at a reasonable level.
Or they could leave him in the minors and he can learn how to keep his pitch count down and get through 5-6 innings. So when he gets up to the big leagues the expectation is he goes deep into games (5-6 innings is deep now) and they don’t need to burn service time on development time.
I think his innings per start were low not due to pitch count, but because they were being cautious with his workload. His whip was only .864 so he wasn’t allowing a lot baserunners.
I also wasn’t suggesting right away. Obviously keep him the minors until after the cutoff for a year of service (assuming that didn’t change with the last CBA). That being said I’m not a fan of holding prospects that are capable of contributing at the ML level down in the minors. Especially when you are trying to contend you should field the best team possible.
It may be a moot point. It’s possible he struggles to start the year in the minors and it becomes obvious he need more seasoning. However if he pitches like he did last year or shows even more development they could potentially call him up mid season if they need the pitching.
I should also mention in his first 10 starts last year he went 5 inning 9 times and 4 2/3 innings once. It looks like as the season went on they were pulling him earlier to keep his innings down and that brought down his innings per start. So he is already capable of giving 5 innings in a start.
IKF for left field now?
Hey, What’s your name?
What?
What is your name?
Tony.
FU Tony.
What’s YOUR name?
Ezequiel.
FU Ezequiel.
It may look like hindsight until you analyze all the supposed top yankee prospects and exactly how many of them have panned out. Not to mention how many missed trades of premier players due to over valuing said prospects.
I still remember Joba and hughes and others. The Yankees are horrendous at player scouting and development. Remember when the yankees were hyping Montero as the best catching prospect in all of baseball? Adam Foster of the prospect project claimed Montero was a “once in a generation” talent.
Go back and review all the yankee top 10 prospects lists over the last 20 years and see how many missed trades for all stars there were. Let alone how many of those prospects turned into anything in yankee land?
It’s no longer hindsight when it’s a pattern
This is the Estevan Florial story, in a nutshell:
“The Yankees are horrendous at player scouting and development.”
Amen.
Outside counter-point perspective: I am often envious of The Yankees ability to find, develop high quality middle relievers.
The draft picks stopped coming once Cashman was promoted in ‘98. He doesn’t have an eye for amateur talent unless he can buy them for the most. Even then it’s usually failure.
Tovar is the only sure bet, imo