After another day that saw a top free agent sign on with a club, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:
1. How much more can the Mets spend?
Mets owner Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets among MLB ownership, and he hasn’t been afraid to use that to his organization’s advantage since he purchased the team in September of 2020. While this year’s collective bargaining agreement included a newly created fourth tier of luxury penalization, Cohen has yet to show much deference to that final, $293MM level. Instead, he’s given the green light to GM Billy Eppler’s front office on signing reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, lefty Jose Quintana, and set-up man David Robertson while also retaining closer Edwin Diaz and center fielder Brandon Nimmo on massive contracts. Altogether, RosterResource pegs New York’s luxury tax line for 2023 at just over $335MM. That figure already has them set to pay more than $60MM in penalties — a figure higher than the entire payroll of the Pirates or A’s in 2022. With the team incurring such massive fees already, it’s fair to wonder if the Mets are approaching the limit of their payroll capacity — if there even is one. Notably, the Mets are reportedly still interesting in adding another starter to their rotation, like Kodai Senga or Chris Bassitt. As perhaps the two best pitchers on the free agent market behind ace Carlos Rodon, both Senga and Bassitt are sure to have more suitors than the Mets for their services, and that could make things complicated for New York. After all, they’ll pay a 90% tax on the AAV for any contract to which they sign Senga or Bassitt this year.
2. Where will center field-needy teams turn with Nimmo off the market?
Yesterday’s deal between the Mets and Nimmo raises more questions than those about the Mets’ payroll. Chief among those questions is where the center field market goes from here. With Nimmo and Cody Bellinger both off the market, the already thin free agent market at the position is nearly barren. Kevin Kiermaier is the top option still available, but he’s recovering from season-ending hip surgery. Those behind him, such as Rafael Ortega, Tyler Naquin, Adam Duvall, and Jackie Bradley Jr. appear to be miscast as everyday players in center, at least for any club with playoff aspirations. With the Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Rockies, and Marlins among the teams in the hunt for a center fielder, it seems likely that at least some of those clubs will need to explore the trade market to find their next center fielder. The Diamondbacks are flush in center field options at or approaching the big league level, and are drawing interest in that group. Pirates star Bryan Reynolds recently requested a trade, though the Bucs apparently plan to hang onto him regardless. Minnesota’s Max Kepler is a premium right fielder with decent career grades in center, and he’s also drawn some trade interest. Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins has long been the source of trade speculation, but given the Orioles’ shift to a win-now mentality, it’d likely take an overwhelming offer for them to even consider moving his remaining three years of club control.
3. Relief market keeps rolling
The relief pitching market has remained active, as Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin both signed deals with the Red Sox, Robertson landed in Queens, Tommy Kahnle returned to the Bronx, and both Brooks Raley and Joe Jimenez were traded in recent days. As early as November, there were signs that the market for relief pitching this offseason would be a robust one, from the megadeal between Diaz and the Mets to surprisingly strong contracts for both Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero. That strong market continued to play out with these deals, as the Red Sox paid out almost $50MM between Jansen and Martin, while both Kahnle and Robertson secured guarantees of more than $10MM despite recent injury struggles. Even with these players off the board, there still remains a number of quality options with late-inning experience on the free agent market, with Craig Kimbrel, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, and Adam Ottavino among the options left on the market.
Goodluck to teams in need of a CF.
They forgot to list CF Adam Engel as available!
I would have left him off the list too..lol
The Yankees will be more than happy to toss in a slightly used Aaron Hicks.
All sales are final
I expect to next read the Mets have signed Michael Conforto to a one year $40MM deal.
Wow, I totally forgot that Conforto is still available. I haven’t heard any chatter about him this off-season.
@LordD99 Conforto might be the most overated player in the game. I wouldn’t even offer him a minor league contract. Least clutch player I’ve ever seen. Only gets hits or homeruns in blowouts. Strikesout or grounded out to the second basemen in almost every game where there was a guy on second and the score was within 3 runs or less
Oh god, give it up with the clutch comments. That’s just your selective memory as a Mets fan. Why don’t you actually look up his numbers and see how he performed, relative to other players? Not that I believe that there’s any such thing as clutch-hitting ability in the first place. That falls into the same trash bin as fielding percentage and winning percentage in importance and meaning.
Well if you’ve ever played on a team, coached a team, been in business, or lived in a society you should know human beings can feel the pressure of certain situations and many often preform worse in those situations. Most players at the mlb level should be above that however it’s clearly been shown some arent (pre roids Arod and Bonds to name two)
WPA
@Hammerin Hank Iv looked up his numbers before. Look at his baseball reference page on games decided within 1,2,3 runs. His numbers plummet. Check out his stats in 5 run+ games, hes plays at a hall of fame level when the games are blowouts
Alex Bregman would beg to differ.
He’s right. 50 point difference in BA and 80 point difference in OPS in blow outs compared to his career average.
He is a quality player but yes his “late and close” career numbers – usually compiled against better relievers are not impressive.
Usually when someone says that, it’s a fan that is just remembering the few times a player didn’t come through but in Conforto’s case you are correct.
When the run differential was more than 4 runs, he hit 50 points higher than his career average and his slg% went up 45 points. In games where the Mets were ahead he hit .291 w/ a .907 OPS vs .227 w/ a .738 OPS when they were behind.
Conforto’s new name is frontrunner.
I think this stat is missing some variables like quality of opponent. There’s probably a reason why those games were decided by less than three runs and other games were blowouts. Generally a hitter, no matter the caliber, will undoubtedly perform worse against against Justin Verlander than say Patrick Corbin. Also sometimes teams just rollover any given night (Phillies/Astros have 3).
I’m saying that the stat is flawed – just adding some perspective.
I meant to say “I’m NOT saying the stat is flawed…”
@BaseballisLife Thanks for showing him the stats, he hasn’t commented back which means hes speechless. Some people just cant admit when they are wrong
@LFG Mets
Maybe Wayne Gretzky sucked because he only scored goals and assists when his team won by a lot? See the problem with that type of logic? Conforto is not a superstar, but he’s certainly worth a roster spot on just about any team.
I’m wondering if other owners are regretting their approval of Steve Cohen. It feels weird that the Yankees are the “poor” franchise in NYC. Obviously, the PA loves what has happened. I’m thinking more and more principle owners will look to cash out.
The value of MLB teams has skyrocketed. There are more billionaires who enjoy the ego stroke of public attention then slots in this monopoly. Owners who cash out will not do so on principle, but rather to reap the increase in their team’s value. Just be grateful Musk bought Twitter rather than a sports team.
Lol on the Musk mention. My concern is that the model was set in FL and the Padres seem to be following it. Big deals to create excitement, win a championship and then cash out before the long term deals become negative with respect to value.
There is absolutely nothing in Elton Musk’s business dealings which would indicate that he would spend like Cohen should he acquire a baseball team. On the contrary Musk runs efficient businesses. The man who made SpaceX into the premier space business in less than a decade and immediately started reforming and rationalizing Twitter doesn’t spend willy-nilly. Frankly, you just don’t know what you are talking about.
I think he was talking about his approach as much as his spending habits. While you could be right, it appears to many he grossly overpaid for Twitter and is now in recovery, desperation mode.
Not talking about how Musk runs a business. Rather, I believe that Musk acquired Twitter as an “ego stroke” and that most sports team owners make an acquisition for the same reason.
He vastly over spent for Twitter
Musk would not be allowed into the baseball owners fraternity. The public comments from the 4 or 5 that mentioned Musk on other subjects put that possibility to bed.
You may want to take a look first at the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies.
Their paying but are they happy and while some clubs can afford it, it’s ruining the game for fans of many other clubs. I’m also now wondering if Dombrowski’s departure from Boston was more mutual than it appeared. His approach has been successful wherever he’s gone and he may have seen the writing on the wall when he talked internally about extending Betts.
I think that historically, there has always been a huge gap between the haves and have-nots in MLB. Look at the Phillies and the post-dynasty Philadelphia As. Under-funded. Not competitive for decades at a time. Both followed a business model based on getting 200,000 to 300,000 paying customers and supplemented that income by selling their best players to one of the well-funded teams. Look at their year-to-year rosters in the 1920s to 1950s for the Phillies and the ’30s to the ’50s for the As. They identified talent. But those talented players soon were traded / sold elsewhere for cash to run that year’s operations. Rinse and repeat. Sound like any modern franchises?
Exactly, Wes. Baseball has always been a sport of the haves and the have nots. Look at the Yankees and their domination of this sport from 1923 to 1964. And Connie Mack stated that he didn’t even want the A’s to win all the time. It was more profitable to build a great team, win a series or two, then sell off his stars and try to finish in the middle of the pack. He thought that was enough to keep the fans coming in.
That makes my mlb obsession feel very very pathetic
Connie Mack and the first Yankee dynasty thrived in part with the help of the Reserve Clause. What Curt Flood tried to do, Dave McNally and Andy Messersmith finished off.
Who are all under the tax at this point.
@Dewey, I can’t think of any reason why franchise values won’t continue to increase. The game is financially quite healthy. All teams make money. The revenue-sharing and national TV contracts guarantee that.
The money streams can dry up if there is a long recession. Clubs might be overvalued on paper and their anticipated future cash flow can be much less than anticipated. The spigot opened when COVID rules relaxed but we still don’t know about tomorrow. Listen to Jamie Dimon and others. Baseball is more at risk than other sports due to the size of their stadiums, it being more regionalized than football and the number of games played.
Baseball is not at risk at all.
We are not in a recession now and in the last one revenue grew faster than inflation.
COVID increased TV money. Substantially. ESPN went from paying $7.8 million per game to paying $18.4 million per game. They reduced the games they are broadcasting but 2 other sources picked up those games and more at a similar per game price.
Streaming viewership is exploding. Tens of millions more buy those packages than they did 3 years ago.
Every team plays every other team every year now.
The percentage of income not tied to attendance makes attendance only a small factor and the number of of games lowers the risk compared to sports like the NFL that have all their eggs in a small number of baskets.
If I was in a position to make an investment in the low billions, there is no safer investment than a MLB team.
Depends on your age and ability to wait. To say we’re not in a recession is IMO not looking in the mirror. Prices for mostly everything has shot up since COVID began. The price of oil and gas will not come down while Russian and the West don’t play nice. The cost to go to a game will keep rising as will everything else at the stadiums. Media firms are cutting everywhere as advertising is down. A lot will depend on the length of current deals. How much more can fans pay?
Attendance is a much bigger factor for the smaller market teams. NYY and MYM get the big bucks. TV deals for Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Kansas City are nowhere near as lucrative. When the smallest market is less than 1/9th the size of the largest market, blanket statements really don’t apply.
The Mets have a trash deal w SNY bc of how the Wilpons structured it; they are forever losers.
Isn’t that what home owners said in 2006 and early 2007 about home prices? “Home prices will always go up.”
While there are plenty of reasons to expect franchise value to increase, there are also some reasons to be concerned about franchises losing value. If I was an investor there are at least three factors that would cause me concern about investing in baseball. One, the demographics of MLB’s fan base. Not only does MLB have an older fan base but it is getting older. Two, cultural shift between generations especially in relationship to whether one is interested in spectator sports of any kind or one is interested in activity sports (participation not watching). Three, competition from other spectator sports. These concerns would not necessarily mean I would not invest, but they would mean that there are risks.
Agreed.
Homes are not a monopoly. Apples and oranges when it comes to investments.
Baseball is not a monopoly either. It competes with restaurants, theatres, movies, concerts, etc. for the entertainment dollar.
Baseball has become dependent on big money from regional sports networks. The RSN model is frayed if not already broken — the company that owns Bally Sports just underwent a corporate reorganization. Should that company go bankrupt, 14 of the 30 major league ballclubs are going to be in financial pain. Which means the Angels might not be able to afford both Trout and Ohtani.
Dewey that is a weak take. Do they regret it anymore than letting the Rangers, Phillies, or Padres owners in? Other teams making huge deals led by the Rangers and deGrom which really started the ball rolling. So what, you think Cohen was just supposed to grab a 2nd tier starter, someone like Kiermaier for CF, and let Diaz walk? None of those Met deals were anymore outrageous than the ones those other teams I mentioned did. Verlander was going to get paid around that amount by someone once the deGrom deal went down. Once Judge was off the board Nimmo was the only viable CF left (which is why just about every team was in on him) and Boras was going to leveragw that scarcity model for $$$ to some team. His AAV is $20 million which is the same as the 5/100 many predicted for him. The Mets just upped the years (probably because 7 yr. offers were already on the table).
Much better to be Boston right? Who have stuck to their guns and watched Betts, Boagaerts walk out the door with Devers soon to follow.
The owners the other owners should regret are do nothing ones like in Pittsburgh who wreck storied franchises with their financial austerity.
To Dewey’s point, those other teams that are spending are still below the luxury tax for now. The point is the tax was meant as a deterrent, and it clearly means nothing to Cohen. I think Cohen is good for baseball and it’s nice to see them spend, but there’s an argument to be made that the tax needs to be changed if it’s not working as intended.
Thank you Von. I like to argue my own points but you said it in far fewer words than I would have…
$60m in luxury taxes. More than the entire A’s or Pirates entire rosters. Wow!!
Don’t forget the Orioles
Which shows how pathetic those teams are ownership wise. Of course Oakland has the stadium issue but the Bucs have no excuse.
Um, or it shows common sense?
A’s won as many playoff series as the Mets did last year, and all these signings still guarantee nothing. These salaries are ridiculous, sorry.
The Reds owners are equally pathetic.
How much with the Mets’ payroll be in 2024 after they get bounced in the NLDS again?
All jokes aside, I think Cohen resets in 2025, dropping below the lux tax, hoping the young talent pans out, and hoping he can extend the likes of Alonso and McNeil. When Scherze and Verlander retire, he’ll be looking at other top FA options like Ohtani.
Yes, but with the trajectory of these contracts, How does a team like the Mets pay Alonso and McNeil and ever reset their luxury tax? Not only that, it certainly appears the way to go from here on out is to try and sign your young talent to contract extensions early and try and avoid some of these mega salaries, Which in turn takes away some of their cheap years. I honestly can’t believe what has happened in baseball this year, it’s just crazy. I see a major battle brewing in this next CBA between the big market owners and small market owners. Don’t think they’ll really be on the same page any longer.
I think the Mets are going to see a lot of turnover under the Cohen regime. Fan favorites will leave…often. Similar to what we see with the Dodgers. I can really see Alonso and McNeil just being let go in favor of a new regime. I predict big splurges for 3 year periods followed by resets to get under the cap. It’s not the worst strategy, but you can’t buy any jerseys for your kids.
I really can’t believe they would let Alonso walk. Would much rather have seen them let Nimmo walk out the door than Alonso, And I believe every Met fan would universally agree with me. Not to mention, I literally just bought an Alonso jersey last year because I was convinced he was the future! I don’t wish for any of this to be construed as I’m not happy to have Nimmo back, but this is really an insane contract in my opinion given that he seemed to peak last year. They were really hamstrung by their centerfield issue. That said, great guy… time to buy that Nimmo jersey!
They just let deGrom walk with no issue. A few months ago that was unfathomable.
You’re assuming that small market (or practically any for that matter) owners are primarily concerned about competitive imbalance which is false. Fans care about that, owners care about money. Small and large market owners will surely be on the same page in the next round of CBA negotiations to maximize their profits and minimize their risk, as always.
“Small market” owners…who are still billionaires. People treat the A’s like paupers of the league, yet their owner is worth $2B+. This “small market” v “big market” is a complete sham. BAM payouts alone should have raised spending by owners yet….not much changed.
Just because someone is worth a certain amount, doesn’t equate to spending of one of their businesses. There’s a reason they are worth so much.
Maybe they are spending their money on the business that made them that money, and it wasn’t baseball. Name me one baseball owner that got rich by operating a baseball team. Many get richer when selling the team. None got rich by operating one.
Sadly, my own team….NY Mets had this happen. The Wilpons scraped together enough money to go from 1% to 5%, and eventually split the club 50/50 w Nelson Doubleday. The value of clubs skyrocketed in the 90s & 00s. The Wilpons played a shell game to maximize their profits and then invested in Madoff. The Wilpons bought into the club when it was dirt cheap, rode the value, exploded their net worth bc of the Mets. Sadly, they lost the vast majority of their fortunes bc of Madoff.
“1 billion dollars”
Mets making a splash. The Titanic as it went under looked a bit like these signings. Iceberg ahead left or right ahead Steve.
@Braves83. If you look at the past 10 years no team below 12th in opening day payroll has won the World Series.
Teams can scout all they want, if they don’t spend among the top 12, they get no trophy come November.
2022. Astros. 9th
2021. Braves. 10th
2020 Dodgers. 1st
2019 Nationals 3rd
2018 Red Sox 1st
2017 Astros 12th
2016 Cubs 4th
2015 Royals 12th
2014 Giants 10th
2013 Red Sox 3rd
Interesting that two teams with the 12th highest won it all, the same number as teams that spent the most.
It certainly doesn’t seem as if the Orioles have shifted “to a win-now mentality.” There big off-season addition has been Kyle Gibson.
Not-lose-now?
I have to imagine the other owners are going to be deeply unhappy with the Mets, and the Mets front office is going to find it to be difficult to work out trades going forward, with teams demanding more from them than they seemingly want from competitors.
And the next time the CBA comes up, I’d expect a completely shut down as the owners demand some sort of hard cap.
They tried that in 1994-95 and got slapped down by the NLRB. The MLBPA is too strong for a cap and, as we saw last year, few owners have the stomach for such a colossal fight.
There will be a floor way before there’s a cap. Cohen is better for baseball than Nutting.
No chance one happens without the other. If either ever happens, which I doubt, it will be simultaneous. Way too big of an ask for either the owners or players association to be able to negotiate using any other available concessions they have to make.
Cohen is exposing the hypocrisy of MLB ownership. Sure, he leads the pack at $16B+ net worth, but MLB owners are almost ALL billionaires. The value of MLB franchises have exploded over the past 10+ years. There needs to be a floor for spending because too many owners/ownership groups are fine taking profits every year and ignoring their fan bases.
statista.com/statistics/1125149/wealthiest-mlb-tea…
The owner of the team didn’t get wealthy pouring more money into his main business than its revenue dictated. Its the revenue of the team that determines its ability to spend on Players. The wealth of the owner is separate and has no bearing. If they were ignoring the fan base, there wouldn’t be profit to take.
MLBPA will never allow a salary cap. Salaries are maximized in a free market, players want money more than team parity. As for owners being mad at Cohen? ……I don’t see it inhibiting the Mets ability to trade, it never hurt the Yankees when George was outspending everyone else.
As a lifer Braves fan, Steve Cohen is scary. His idea to buy competitive teams and build a quality minors system is wonderful for the sport. I love that he’s throwing stupid money around to be competitive. Eventually their farm will start producing too. I mean they will still be 2nd or 3rd in the NL East but that’s really good for them.
As a mets fan….I wanted to hate this post, but it made me laugh. Well done. No notes.
The Mets will have both Scherzer and Verlander on the DL, Linder and Nimmo will absolutely regress, and they won’t win a playoff series. Mark it down and sign and date it.
Or they’ll win 100+ games again. Who knows? Fact is they’re improving their chances. All you can ask for as a fan.
@Skell 2 I agree, as of right now they will be lucky to sneak out a third wildcard spot. Stevw Cohen has paid the wrong players. I’d much rather have Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, and Realmuto over Lindor, Verlander, and Nimmo
The Mets won 101 games w. deGrom contributing 6 of those wins. The NL East will be even more competitive this year (and going fwd), but I still think they will 100 games. The bigger issue is staying healthy and going into the playoffs rested and avoiding a cold streak. The Mets hit a cold streak at the absolute worst time; same can be said for LAD.
With so many good teams and a more balanced schedule, I would not be surprised if none of the Mets, Atlanta, Phillies, Dodgers and Padres hit 100 wins but they will all be high 90s barring numerous massive injuries
Yea. The Braves and Phillies underperformed early and made up for it later. Mets were pretty consistent, but I think they’re closer to mid 90s than 100 if the Braves or Phillies don’t underperform early again.
Zaidi’s inability to sign impact CF has left options not worth considering (Bradley Jr, Duvall, Engel, Kiermaier, Naquin, Ortega). Thus, Zaidi will do more dumpster diving.
Rays need a CF. They whiffed yet again.
I remember all my fellow Rays fans talking about how the FO was going to make big changes. Zac Eflin? Sure. Need bats. Still plenty of offseason left, but I won’t hold my breath.
The Rays will get one of the LH CF to platoon with Siri. Someone from the JBJ/Naquin/Herrera/Ortega group or re-sign Kiermaier to a very low one year deal if he can’t get anything else
Margot can play center & so can Siri. This is the Rays we’re talking about. Did you really expect them to sign a top-flight free agent?
@skell2 22 MLB teams will not win a playoff series in 2023. 73% of the teams, so predicting any team as being in that 73% isn’t going too far out on a limb, and players on the IL…..a crazy amount of players are on the IL at some point during the season so that isn’t a stretch at all. Lindor and Nimmo regressing, 50/50 chance there…..that’s the least probable of the predictions and you have at least half a chance to be right.
50/50 that Tampa Bay or NY Mets have 95 wins and playoff appearance? Seems about right. If true, why would an owner want to spend 300 mill plus when he could spend 80 mill with roughly the same chance of making the playoffs?
@Cleon the 50/50 was whether Lindor and Nimmo would regress. Had nothing to do with playoff chances
Jackie Bradley Jr is, and always has been, seriously overrated.
This business can be really profitable. Franchise values are soaring from scarcity, revenue streams, and free goodies from the taxpayers. There are well-managed lower revenue teams–and there are lower-revenue teams that tank with the owners pocketing money. A guy like Cohen may change the overall mix slightly. but to think that one more mega-bucks signing really changes the game substantially is just wrong. As is the idea that ticket prices would plunge if only these guys weren’t paid so much. Management, a quality organization, good scouting and development, make a difference.
Step 1: Steal $13B.
Step 2: Dodge the law.
Step 3: Pay $2B to escape jail.
Step 4: Buy a championship.
Stole from whom, Einstein?
There are only two crazies out there, right now. Cohen and Preller don’t even look at price tags. But Dombrowski & the LAD (reset) are being somewhat constrained. There will be plenty of free agents left after the crazy money is gone. Just have to get used to the fact NYM and SDP will be spending $300M or so to guarantee at least a 2nd place finish.
San Diego’s spending has a shelf life and it expires the day Preller is fired. If the Padres fail to at least make it to the World Series (let alone win one) within the next couple of seasons (or specifically while Soto is under contract) i could see them blowing it all up.
Cohen should hopefully realize that $400 million dollar payrolls mean nothing in the standings and does not guarantee championships, much less actually making it to the playoffs.
Rsox, so better to let your best players like your GM does?
People complaining about Cohen really show their lack of baseball acumen and resentment.
The team had to rebuild a rotation, bullpen, and retain its sparkplug on top of the line-up and also addressing the need for a power bat while hamstrung by Cano’s albatross contract. Also factor in a farm system with no pitching a thin layer of top prospects. This is a situation created by prevuous ownership that Cohen inherited. What was he supposed to do? Go half in? Tear down? They have a ton of money coming off the books in 2024-25. To stay competitive now they have to spend otherwise its rebuild or tread water like the previous regime.
To all you complaining about Cohen spending you really show a lack of understanding about the financial reality of a baseball team and how to run it. Or you just like complaining in general.
Cohen is free to spend to his hearts content. But just like when ARod and JLo were guaranteeing championships if they were the ones chosen to buy the team it’s not what you spend that’s as important as where you spend it.
Hopefully the Dbacks’ price for a CF just went up again?
:$
The trade hot stove starts now. Who will pull off the first big trade? You know they are coming and there will be some blockbusters.
What teams have big needs that can’t be filled on the FA market. What players will be on the move?
With the relief pitcher market being so drained maybe the White Sox can flip one of their overpaid relievers for a bat. God knows they’re not gonna spend any more money
Mets sign Senga 5/$100, get it done Cohen, we need a #3 SP, Quintana is 4, Carrasco 5, Megill and Peterson goes to the bullpen and spot start there, Starting and bullpen done
They get Senga and trade Carrasco.
$335M and the roster is still not as good as last year. Yes they replaced deGrom with JV. Walker with Quintana. Ottovino with DRob. But still need to replace May, Lugo, Givens, TWilliams and Naquin. Gonna look more like $360M when it’s all said and done.
They already have the lefty Raley for the bullpen. Didn’t have a good lefty last year and now they do.