The stove is so hot that we couldn’t even get this post out this morning! Judge, Quintana, Jansen, Contreras! Here’s what else we’re looking at:
1. How Will The Giants React To Missing Out On Judge?
Perhaps the biggest news of the offseason came in this morning, as reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees on a monster contract. In yesterday’s Opener, we discussed how the Judge decision was likely holding up most of the remaining top players on the market. With Judge’s decision now made, it’s possible we’ll see movement on other top players, and any such movement will likely involve the Giants and Padres, the losing bidders on Judge. The Giants signed Mitch Haniger last night, but San Francisco will likely be thinking much bigger with regard to future pursuits, as they’ve been connected to Carlos Correa at the top of the shortstop market, have interest in bringing back Carlos Rodón, the top pitcher left on the market, and may turn to Brandon Nimmo in their pursuit of a second outfield signing. Nimmo, of course, is the top outfield free agent available now that Judge has signed. With the Giants reportedly having offered Judge a deal in the range of $360MM, they should have plenty of money available for pursuits of any of these top free agents.
2. The Rule 5 Draft Is Today
The Winter Meetings are set to end today, and they’ll likely feature the same flurry of activity the past two days had. Today won’t be entirely the same, however, as the Rule 5 draft will occur at 4 PM CT this afternoon. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Teams must have space on their 40-man to accommodate their Rule 5 selections. Currently, the 40-man rosters of the Angels, D-Backs, Rangers, Rays and Royals are full. This year’s Rule 5 draft is of particular note because the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft did not occur last year, leaving more players than usual freshly vulnerable in the draft this time. Between the Rule 5 draft and a likely third straight busy day of rumors and signings, the final day of this year’s Winter Meetings looks to be one to watch. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!
3. Who’s Left On The Mid-Rotation Market?
Yesterday saw the market for mid-rotation starters heat up in a big way, as the Rangers signed Andrew Heaney, the Phillies inked Taijuan Walker and the Cubs landed Jameson Taillon. It isn’t slowing down today, with the Mets and José Quintana agreeing on a deal. Walker and Taillon landed similar deals of four years, with Walker’s $72MM slightly outdoing Taillon’s $68MM, while Heaney took a different approach to his free agency, settling for a guarantee of just two years, $25MM in order to secure an opt-out that will allow him to test free agency again next offseason if he so chooses. In any case, the deals indicate that the market has gotten much stronger for mid-rotation starters since Tyler Anderson’s three year, $39MM deal with the Angels last month. With prices soaring, the supply of mid-rotation options in free agency is shrinking rapidly, with Kodai Senga and Chris Bassitt the best options remaining behind Rodón, the last remaining ace. Looking a bit further down the free agency tier list, the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea also remain on the market. Any of these pitchers could see their markets heat up as the Winter Meetings come to a close, now that the mid-rotation market has been established and their fellow free agents are beginning to sign.
CaseyBlakeSnell
Oohhhh Rule 5 Draft is today. Time for the A’s to fill out their roster now
ARC 2
They will indeed pick up at least 1 player or 2. No doubt a relief pitcher and maybe a OF/DH.
This one belongs to the Reds
I imagine Cincinnati will grab someone. After all, they’ll be cheap at least this year.
JockStrap
Lmao.. add the Red Sox to that list too.
5TUNT1N
This is draft day for the A’s because it has the most impact on the active roster for them. Sucks they got dropped to 6th in the lottery!
ruff kuntry
My team is always fcked over.
ARC 2
Knowing Fisher he is happy to drop to 6th and not pay out as much for a draft pick. Cheapest owner ever.
TheMan 3
Nutting easily gives him competition
mgomrjsurf
Usly on Thursday so one less day of Winter Meetings.
Buzz Killington
Listen man they just spent $14 million be nice.
Wagner>Cobb
Correa must’ve been thrilled to see Judge go back to NY. Imagine SF throws a desperate pile of cash at him now.
Josh Ua.
Who was the last player they did that with?
Wagner>Cobb
If people only did things they had done once before, nothing would ever happen.
GASoxFan
Don’t you mean SD?
ARC 2
All those baseball reporters were wrong that Judge was going to the Giants. Knew it all along since Judge likes playing in NY. Giants will sign a top SS in Carlos now that there is not another impact bat out there.
CaptainJudge99
If you’re Correa, you really wanna go to San Francisco now? Maybe just for the $ that’s all.
ARC 2
Correa will go for the best offer. If Giants outbid the twins he will be landing in SF.
EastCoastGiant
The best offer will be the Padres or Dodgers. It always is.
RunDMC
Dodgers aren’t always the best offer. They want shorter/high AAV deals. Their offer wasn’t better than TB’s for Freeman, reportedly. They can afford to beat anyone, but they’re smart in knowing their limitations. Where Anthopolous probably learned it from.
thome612
guardians owner has more money then dodgers, is about market.
giantsphan12
@AllRise, here’s why Carlos may want to play in SF. 1) Very good club culture. Players love playing here. 2). Killer park with great, adoring and “kind” fans. 3). This club has a winning culture. Though almost a decade since the last WS win, this town expects to win and the club, with this off season’s acquisitions (finally) under Zaidi will likely bring us back to being a true contender. Don’t forget, we won 107 games last year with a roster full of mid-tier players (at best). Carlos will love being a Giant as will Nimmo, Rodon (again) and a reliever or two. Plus, yes, they’ll throw gobs of $ at him too. What’s not to love??
27champyankees
@Allrise Winning culture in SF? They’ve only posted 1 winning season above .500 since 2016!!
ohyeadam
Most of the producers from that miracle 107 win season aren’t on the roster anymore
skullbreathe
Any club with a full 40-man roster can still get involved with the Rule-5 draft there just needs to be a corresponding player either traded or DFA’d.
Jon M
Thanks. I hope your skull is breathing okay.
Manfred’s playing with the balls
Tough times to be a Giants fan. SF and SD are looking desperate to sign a star and players keep turning them down.
Missing out on Judge might not be so bad. There’s no guarantee Manfred juices the balls for Yankee games again in 2023. Judge’s power numbers might return to career norms next season
LordD99
Wouldn’t surprise me. Manfred seems to be running experiments year to year. For example, the year prior, supposedly they used dead(er) balls at Yankee Stadium in 2021.
Regardless. Judge’s home/road splits the last two years:
2022:
Home: .308/.417/.664 — 30 HRs
Road: .313/.433/.708 — 32 HRs
2021:
Home: .259/.351/.459 — 15 HRs
Road: .314/.394/.625 — 24 HRs
So over the last two seasons, Judge has hit 56 HRs on the road vs. 45 at home, and overall hit much better on the road. One year he was dealing with a less-lively ball compared to the rest of MLB, the other year a more lively ball compared to the rest of MLB. What does it mean? Judge hits HRs against all balls, and maybe in 2023 he’ll have a regular ball and will “only” hit 50 HRs.
Manfred’s playing with the balls
Did MLB use the juiced ball only at Yankee home games?
Those are some interesting splits and I do think Judge has elite power with or without using the “goldilock” balls.
LordD99
@A’sfaninWales, Don’t know. There reportedly was only a few “goldilocks” balls found at Yankee Stadium, and remember that the goldilocks balls weren’t the juiced balls. They were the in-between balls. They simply weren’t the dead balls, which for some reason MLB decided to use at Yankee Stadium in 2021 when Judge only hit 39 HRs.
To me the story here isn’t Judge. It’s that MLB keeps screwing around with the baseballs while denying they’re screwing around with the baseballs.
Giants78
Glad that Giants didn’t get Judge, not worth the money. Problem is, can SF land any big time free agent?
LordD99
Correa and Nimmo to the Giants. Not as sexy as Judge but will make the Giants better. They likely lose Rodon, who I suspect will be a Yankee.
davcamp
That’s exactly what I think will happen too. And I too think they will be better off.
tedtheodorelogan
They need to do something, because the fan base is beyond sick and tired of being the bridesmaid.
Josh Ua.
I’m fine, still pretty satisfied with three rings since 2010 and a miraculous regular season that probably should have never been.
Wagner>Cobb
Correa, Nimmo, and Haniger is a good group. Probably need a starter behind Webb too though. Don’t think it will be Rodon. Maybe Senga. Maybe a trade.
Josh5890
I know the focus will be on the Giants now, but it seems like the Padres want to be in the conversation as well. Can’t rule anything out at this point.
LLGiants64
All of the Giants fans that actually believed that Judge would sign with San Francisco will be meeting in the phone booth in Linden today at 1100 AM.
Jon M
What’s a phone booth?
Clepto_
“You dont even know what a write-off is…”
zrjc14
Well, they do, and they’re the ones writing it off!
LLGiants64
another fantasy that the 8 Giants fans believe in.
angt222
I’m sure SF is disappointed about Judge, but it’s probably better that they spread out that potential $360M throughout the entire roster. Correa, Rodon & Nimmo would be nice additions. I’m also thinking Bassitt.
adshadbolt1
This was the best thing that could happen for the giants, they need to go sign nimmo and Swanson, then find another quality arm through FA or a trade. I’d be willing to move Luciano for the right arm (skubal, rodgers, López, etc) I think his prospect star is fading as he becomes more and more of a bat first player and the bat isn’t as great as everyone thought.
I also think looking into giolito coming off a bad year would be a good idea, get him with a good pitching coach like Andrew Bailey and get him closer to the codify guys who are based out of the Bay Area could help turn him around, something like Luis Gonzalez, wil Wilson and an arm could get a deal done, helps fill holes and clears some payroll for the Sox
Maclunkey
Sox aren’t going to sell low on Giolito. And don’t start about getting him a better pitching coach, they brought in Katz specifically for him. At this point our starting rotation is our only hope this season
Wagner>Cobb
I was liking Giolito as a target for them too.
C Yards Jeff
Smyly. A 3/4 or a 4/5 arm?
C Yards Jeff
Means on the shelf, Hall a hot mess and Rom not ready. Do we (Orioles) need a veteran LSP for now?
Goin' to Sheetz
Sure, but Elias isn’t getting one by any means other than a trade, Until ownership changes hands, he’s not escalating payroll beyond arbitration increases. Gibson wasn’t more salary, he just replaced Lyles.
C Yards Jeff
You may be on to something there tbscreen. That said, arbitration increases are a good start. And I do believe sizable extensions may happen this off season; Rutschman and Mullins specifically.
By the way, the O’s have had a new owner since late 2018. John Angelos is not his dad, thankfully. Elias does have permission to spend big. If they don’t go big FA this season that’s Elias making that call not the owner.
Goin' to Sheetz
I’ll believe that when I see it. John Angelos says the right things, but he has yet to walk the walk. Elias and Angelos can buy themselves some goodwill this offseason.
C Yards Jeff
Point taken @tbscreen, point taken. Cheers!
geoffb1982
Get Bassitt
In nurse follars
Has there been even one trade? Meetings end tomorrow and not one trade? Winter meetings are killed by free agency. All those trade predictions so far are just writer’s empty words.
This one belongs to the Reds
Not one that I am aware of. Seems weird.
99socalfrc
I haven’t heard anything about the Padres in on Rodon, seems to make sense. They have room in the rotation. Also Darvish and Snell are free agents after 2023.
99socalfrc
The Giants simply are not that good. Their fans need to come to grips with the fact that 2021 was a seriously freak occurrence. I don’t think the Dodgers or Padres consider them a serious threat right now.
Wagner>Cobb
Yeah, that roster is missing a lot of punch offensively. Haniger helps (if he’s healthy). Still need Correa and Nimmo to even have an outside chance of catching LA or SD.
bwmiller
Giants better off keeping their money in their pocket
JustinLikesSharks
Curious if the bull market on mid-tier starters has increased trade interest for guys like Chris Flexen & Marco Gonzalez. Both proven innings-eaters without clear spot in M’s deep rotation.
Iacredolo
Giants fan here.
Missing out on Judge may prove more disappointing to the eyeballs than it will to the win loss record. If they end up singing Correa, Nimmo, and a few mid level starters I’ll be more than happy.
That being said, the giants haven’t proved they can land a big fish in a while.
They 100% can’t allow Haniger to be the big off season move. Also sports talk radio in the Bay Area this morning is as mad as I’ve ever heard it, I’m enjoying it immensely haha.
thunderdan
Another Giants fan here … Farhan wanted /NEEDED Judge. I don’t think he pivots to overpaying for one of the SS to save face, that isn’t who he is. I think Giants management finally will realize that SF is not a destination for ANY top FAs and focus on building a strong minor league system (like Seattle). Sorry no Correa, no Rodon, no Bogaerts, no Nimmo.. I predict something like Manea and Bentendi
Redwolves3
Hanover to wear uniform number 49-1/2
PGM
I get the sense Zaidi couldn’t close an automatic door at the grocery store
he’s running a poor man’s Tampa Bay Rays with a $180 million budget
which high end FA is going to sign a contract to play with a AAAA team who only has a reasonable shot at a wild card slot every few years?
gets tiresome
I don’t think he owns a pen that can sign a contract longer than 2 years
bwmiller
Giants need to hit the rule 5 jackpot same as the A’s — they have (had?) Yermin Mercedes and Louis Brinson, both could be good w/ everyday at bats
WAR overrated... shows how bad is the replacement? Assigned by?
Correa is a good baseball player, but he’s hardly a superstar by any standard. After eight years of playing in MLB he is a veteran without having a 30hr/100rbi season. You can’t talk about potential after 8 years without achieving anything significant on a personal level. His 121 strikeouts in 2022 only speak of the poor view of hitting for only 26 hr and the poor number of 64 RBIs, at 6’4″.
His post-season numbers of .272 and 79 strikeouts in 79 games, being well protected in Houston, only speaks that the best of CC is in the past.
Even his defense has deteriorated due to his slowness and injuries. Not to mention his historic injuries as a youngster, which will only increase as his frail body continues to be battered after 7,666 innings.
Personally, he is a cheater, he seeks to be the center of every event even after Houston won the World Series, he is more interested in money than in winning like many others. He claims that now they pay him for what happened in Houston as a team, and he hopes to repeat those numbers with another team, without the same protection and with the marks of so many tackles and injuries.
Just as rbi depends on whether someone is on base, hitting into a double play depends on how slow the runner at first base is, the advanced WAR metrics they love depend on how weak the replacement is on the bench or in the minor league, and the money allocated for this. So hitting the ball hard doesn’t win games, or angle, or WAR. Until today, only run scores is the base to win games, and the standing is based on games won and lost. They’ll have to come up with another game where the WAR of the game and team WAR accumulated determines standing position. Also WAR accumulated as a team would determine what teams will play in the postseason, and then pay contracts based on WAR… It’s just a fantasy.
I will never believe B Ruth or B Bonds are better players than Willie Mays or Roberto Clemente. WAR has a place but not the one that they want to impose as the only criteria for everything.
CC has no numbers for the HOF, after 8 years. He won’t have them in the next 8 years either. MLB can be sure, stop pushing this first round pick as another KID or Ken Griffey Jr. or somebody with a potential like Alex Rodriguez.
However, in the future he may be a good politician, team manager or Internet influencer. Big mouth CC could be a baseball agent or narrator too. Showrea? It’s my time? So humble.
JackStrawb
I’m persuaded Cohen didn’t go this far to pull up short and not sign Rodon.
Mets need another starter, and since it’s all play money to the Mets team owner, why bother with the Tesla when you can afford the Jaguar and not even notice the price difference, and especially when you’ve come this far.
At this point, why would you care whether payroll is $365m or $370m? Why not get the guy who can be an ace through the postseason, rather than the uncertainty that is Senga?