One year after shocking baseball by signing both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for a combined half-billion dollar, the Rangers appear to at least be considering a similar double dip into the deep end of the free-agent pool. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Rangers met with Carlos Rodon just one day after signing Jacob deGrom to a hefty five-year, $185MM contract.
With deGrom in Texas and Justin Verlander having agreed to terms with the Mets, Rodon is the lone free-agent ace left on the board. He’s reportedly been seeking a six-year deal worth more than $30MM annually — a weighty sum for a pitcher with a lengthy injury history that includes both shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery.
That said, Rodon has left little doubt in recent years that he’s among the sport’s most talented pitchers. After signing a $3MM pillow contract with the White Sox in the 2020-21 offseason, he at last made good on the expectations associated with his name dating back to his No. 3 overall selection in the draft. Through the first four months of the 2021 season, Rodon was arguably the best pitcher in baseball and looked like the clear front-runner for the American League Cy Young Award.
Shoulder fatigue limited Rodon to just 28 innings in the season’s final two months, however, and when he did pitch down the stretch in 2021, it was often with reduced velocity. The White Sox were apparently wary enough that they declined to put forth a qualifying offer, and Rodon inked a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants that allowed him to opt back into the open market if he reached 110 innings on the season.
Not only did Rodon reach 110 innings, but he did so while again putting himself onto the periphery of the Cy Young race. The lefty tossed a career-high 178 innings with a 2.88 ERA, held his velocity late into the season and averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start as a member of the Giants. He led the National League in strikeouts and, since Opening Day 2021, leads all Major League pitchers (min. 200 innings) with a 33.9% strikeout rate. Rodon has done all that while pitching to a combined ERA of 2.67 with similarly excellent marks in FIP (2.42) and SIERA (2.88).
Onlookers may wonder just how the Rangers could even consider continuing to spend so aggressively in such a short period of time — particularly when so many teams have been averse to paying the luxury tax in recent seasons. The increased luxury tax thresholds in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement surely play a role, as the first-tier threshold has climbed from $210MM in 2021 to $233MM this coming season.
The luxury tax, however, isn’t a major issue for the Rangers — at least not yet. Roster Resource projects that they currently have about $192.4MM of luxury obligations, meaning even signing Rodon at a $30MM AAV would still leave them with more than $10MM of breathing room from the first tier of penalization. It’s also worth noting that the penalty for first-time offenders is rather tepid — relatively speaking. The Rangers would owe a 20% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the $233MM threshold and a 30% tax on the next $20MM. Even shattering the luxury barrier by a means of $40MM would give the Rangers $10MM in penalties — about the price of signing a back-of-the-rotation starter in the current market.
Of course, signing Rodon would squarely set the Rangers up for a potential long-term status as a luxury payor. The combination of deGrom, Seager, Semien and Jon Gray amounts to $107.5MM on its own, and tacking on $30MM+ for Rodon would get Texas nearly 60% of the way to luxury territory even as far out as the 2024 campaign — and that’s not even including arbitration-eligible players and pre-arb players to round out the roster.
Texas, however, is enjoying the fruits of a newly constructed stadium that drew more than two million fans in 2022 and can surely anticipate that number will climb in 2023, with deGrom (at the very least) now on board. Ownership from all 30 clubs is also perhaps a bit more willing to spend after the league sold off its remaining 15% stake in BAMTech to Disney for $900MM, the spoils of which were divided among teams. Meanwhile, lucrative streaming deals with Apple and NBC/Peacock have only further bolstered revenues for the league’s 30 teams. Heading into the 2022 season, national television and streaming rights afforded all 30 teams approximately $65MM in revenue before factoring in local television deals, attendance, concessions and other sources of revenue.
Noooooooo – stay away! Heaney is your guy!
The Rangers aren’t dumb enough to give Heaney any money…they don’t need a borderline #5
Bottom line, Heaney pitched much better for the Dodgers than he did for the Angels and Yanks, and the Dodgers didn’t try and bring him back. Not all of these free agents are going to work out, and I have a bad feeling with Heaney!
I wouldn’t sleep on the Rangers like many people, Fangraphs has their starting pitching ranked at 7th best right now and if they land Rodon that could put them in the playoffs next year. Many people are discounting the loss of Verlander to the Astros!
Houston is a machine. They will still win 95+ game. And go to the ALCS, without Verlander. Seattle is clearly above Texas, even with Rodon. Texas is the new Angels, sign some expensive players and hope for the best.
This comment looks like it’s not against well
And a barista met with him this morning, about how much cream he wanted in his coffee.
He seems like a creamy dude, did he get it all over his face and chest?
Go ahead rangers. That’ll shut them up.
You can see this coming a mile away. He just built a home in Dallas too. Rangers are all in.. but they still need like 5 more decent players.
Would not surprise me in the least if the Rangers were to sign Rodon.
I want this to happen. Rangers may be a disaster in 6 years time, but they’ll be must-watch TV in the meantime.
Von, you break my heart.
Rangers sign Andrew Heaney for 5 years/$106M
Rangers sign Carlos Rodon for 5 years/$161M
Etc.
Why not? They’re clearly trying to buy a World Series run, have clearly given up on trying to rebuild from within the next couple of years…. $25M for Semien, $32.5M for Seager, $37M for deGrom, $21.2M for Heaney, $32.2M for Rodon…. $147.9M a year for 5 players…. who will all under perform for the money they’re being paid and not add up to the number of wins the Rangers need.
They dont want Heaney, he’s basically just Ross Detweiler
Heaney is this year’s Patrick Corbin. He’s Mike Hampton.
Exactly. They had 68 wins last year. They need probably 20 more wins to sniff the playoffs, after which anything goes. But 20 wins is a lot, especially if you’re relying on injury-prone pitchers like deGrom and/or Rodon.
Most pitchers are injury-prone, IIRC.
I like Rodon but he’s still a bit iffy with health. No more than 5yr $125 million. Then again Trea Turner got $300mm and could have got $40mm more.
Agreed, what all contending teams need is good pitchers that will post. Bassitt might be the best choice here.
Jesus, save some for the rest of us maybe?
For you? What position do you play?
I want him for the O’s but if 6 for 180 is what he wants and that hinders the Orioles spending for the duration of that contract, I’ll pass.
They need to change their name from the Texas Rangers to the Texas Mercenaries
All this in an attempt to finish in third……LOL. Having said that, could be a wild card and with that you never know.
HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE
Rangers29, do you comment on other sites? You used to post insightful comments about the Rangers at MLBTR, but I don’t see much from you these days. As I recall, you were a club/college pitcher, correct?
Yeah, I mostly post on Lone Star Ball these days, which is an SB Nation Ranger’s site. Just haven’t had time to post here much anymore with work and all. Was planning to pitch in HS (I’m nearly a senior) barring the passing of a law in Texas allowing homeschoolers to play in public school sports, and despite it’s passing my city was able to deny it so I’ve really lost all motivation for it. I wish I could…. if I was able to I’d be training everyday again, but alas.
Seems like you should be able to, especially if you’re registered as a homeschool kid in that district. I assume TX is like other places where you have to pay taxes in your area that go to the school district as well.
I know Florida permits homeschool kids to participate in their district’s middle and high school sports.
I like it. They will still be able to have a ace when DeGrom is on the IL.
yeah, he is a perfect fit for the rangers. 5+ era!
The nice thing about paying that much for that long for both deGrom and Rodon is that they will come with their own parts car for the inevitable need to reinforce the broken and ailing joints…
Enron take over?
Rodon DID lose velocity as the season wore one, perhaps not as badly as he did in 2021, but he averaged 96-97 with his 4 seamer for much of the first half, and 93-94 in the closing weeks.
More proof the white Sox blew the rebuild.
Would rather see Taillon or 1 yr deal for Cueto added, or trade for Lopez or Luzardo. Sign Haniger and Belli if they think good Belli is possible to recoup his greatness Moore and Ottavino to BP. No issues with Rangers adding Benintendi if they can instead of Haniger and/or Bellinger. That way you have room for Leiter, White or Winn in 24 and Carter in CF in 24.
Us Rangers fans with hope have to stick together
$30m AAV, and even 6/180m might be possible for a guy who has only ever been on the periphery of the Cy?
Oh My God!