TODAY: The Nationals officially announced Williams’ deal.
DECEMBER 9, 9:22am: Williams will be guaranteed a total of $13MM, Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic reports (via Twitter).
8:54am: The Nationals are in agreement on a two-year contract with free-agent righty Trevor Williams, reports Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Williams is represented by John Boggs & Associates.
Williams, 31 in April, has spent the past season and a half with the Mets, pitching to a 3.17 ERA in 122 innings while splitting his time between the rotation (12 starts) and bullpen (28 appearances). He’d previously spent the bulk of his career as a starting pitcher, highlighted by a 31-start, 170 2/3-inning season of 3.11 ERA ball with the Pirates back in 2018. However, Williams has yet to consistently sustain that level of success over the course of multiple seasons.
For instance, Williams followed up that strong 2018 season with a 5.38 ERA in 26 starts in 2019, and he endured similar woes in the shortened 2020 season (6.18 ERA, 55 1/3 innings). That said, Williams has been a source of average or better innings in the other four full seasons of his career, dating back to 2017. In all, he owns a career 4.27 ERA and 4.40 FIP in a span of 715 1/3 Major League innings. He’s also coming off a career-high 22.6% strikeout rate and career-low 6.2% walk rate with the Mets in 2022.
Williams works with a traditional starter’s repertoire, leaning primarily on a four-seam fastball and complementing that with a sinker, slider and changeup that were all used at roughly equal levels in 2022 (plus a much more seldom-used curveball). None of those pitches generate huge spin, and none but the slider come with standout whiff rates. Still, Williams regularly excels at limiting hard contact, with above-average marks in exit velocity and hard-hit rate throughout the majority of his career to this point.
Zuckerman suggests that Williams could well end up in the Nationals’ rotation, but that’s not yet set in stone, and a return to the swingman role in which he’s thrived with the division-rival Mets is possible. At present, the Nats have a pair of albatross contracts atop the rotation in Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and that pair will be followed by some combination of Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli and perhaps Williams. Given Strasburg’s avalanche of recent injury troubles, plus the uncertainty surrounding inexperienced arms like Gore and Cavalli, there ought to be ample rotation innings available even if Williams initially begins the season in the bullpen.
Williams is the second free-agent addition of the winter for the Nats, who also inked corner infielder Jeimer Candelario to a one-year, $5MM contract last month. Washington has a projected payroll of about $106MM next season, though the bulk of that is tied up in their onerous commitments to Strasburg and Corbin. Strasburg is still signed through the 2026 season, while Corbin is signed through 2024.
Trade deadline flip?
My thoughts are the same.
Probably
Biggest move of the off season thus far. Nats going for it.
Disappointing. Wanted him back in Queens. Guess the extra year and a wide open shot at a spot in the rotation was enough to bring him to DC. Nats got a good one. He’s a gamer.
He was solid in that pen.
Williams is like a box of chocolates…
Most relievers are.
I was sure we’d keep him on.
Quality singing by the Nats. Easy trade chip for them if they want to at the trade deadline or next off-season if they are still mid-rebuild.
@Dotty_M, agreed, good for them. But what I don’t get is why TW signed with a team that is in rebuild mode? Now on the other side of 30, thought he’d wanna sign with another ready to win now team … and even if it was for less money than what the Nats offered.
@CYards – Perhaps TW sees this as his best way to ensure he’s playing for a contender come July. With the exception of a few teams like the Yankees, Braves, Mets, Houston and maybe the Padres, it’s hard to say for sure which teams will be playoff contenders next season. The Giants won the NL West in 2021 and were barely .500 in 2022. The Dodgers could take a similar step back this season too. If TW was told by the Nats already they will consider flipping him to a contender in July then he all but ensures he’ll be a playoff race next season.
The other side could be that he enjoys being a mentor to younger players and Washington is the perfect place for that. No factual basis in either one of these hypotheses but either one could explain why he signed with a non-competitive team like the Nats.
#Dotty_M; So by 8/2/23 he could be with that contender! Cool. Sweet perspective. Thank you!
I’m thinking it’s that he wants to start, and there is no certainty of that on a contender. As to tradeability at the deadline, its way to early to for teams to even speculate as to who might have trade value to whom. Washington may need his innings and be unable to even consider it.
Mets officially have nothing to show for Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Thanks again Brodie.
That was Sandy that made the deal. Brodie was already gone.
You are correct! …..but what’s your point? Are you saying that no team should ever trade a prospect for a rental? That would make for some boring trade deadline dealing if they didn’t happen as the deadline deals are mostly prospects for rentals. Is that what you are saying fearthcub?
K:BB ratio isn’t good for this PCA guy, elite defender not much power, lack of walks will kill his OBP as he moves up. Class A+ numbers are ok, not impressive. Unless I’m missing something his ceiling is Nimmo but he could just be Kiermaier. Seems like it was worth trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Baez.
On top of that they got an extra surprisingly good season out of Williams in their run to the wildcard. I would’ve wanted them to re-sign him too, but I’m not killing the move.
First round draft pick. Missed a couple seasons because of injury/pandemic. Potential 5-tool skills. Only 20 years old. First full season of pro ball last year and showed improved bat skills to accompany elite speed and defense.
Still a prospect, and nothing is guaranteed, but the upside seems to outweigh Baez as a rental and journeyman swingman Williams.
Just making a statement. It doesn’t have to be an argument. Lord knows the Cubs have made their fair share of terrible ‘all-in” trades in recent memory. It would be nice to be on the opposite side a few times.
That I agree with, I’ve been to Wrigley a half dozen times, not a Cubs fan, but love that park and the neighborhood around it. I thought the Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant IF was going to be the heart of multiple championships, at least they got one.
He actually had a very solid first full year in the minors at his age. And a Nimmo ceiling is very solid these days. I agree, I don’t see a superstar, but a very good MLB player I could see. But who knows, a lot look good in the minors and never pan out.
Crow-Armstrong is a great prospect.Wish the Mets still had him.The Cubs will be set in Centerfield for at least a decade.Potential 5 tool player
Except it was Zack Scott who traded Crow-Armstrong for Javier Báez and Trevor Williams.
Nice signing. We’re apparently going with a quasi six man rotation where the sixth guy will get fewer starts. I thought he’d fit here.
His starts in 2020 and 2021 did not look as pretty. He still slots way ahead of Corbin.
Nats are going to be stacked in a few years, fleeced the Padres, probably resign Soto in FA when Corbin and Stras come off the books.
I tend to disagree. They got very mediocre return on Max and Trea from the Dodgers, and so far the ones they got from the Padres don’t look very impressive, especially Hassell. I saw him play live in Harrisburg a few times, he looks like “just a guy” to me.
C.J. Abrams may take a couple years, but he will be good.
C.J. Abrams may take a couple years, but he will be good.
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Abrams, along with Garcia & Robles, should be in AAA until they learn how to hit. They might’ve ruined Robles by now, but Abrams & Garcia are still kids. Rizzo is trying to ‘Adell’ them.
Joe
Absolutely agree, Padres brought up Abrams before he was ready and now Nationals are doing same.
Prospects are a crapshoot. If there is one scene in Moneyball that is accurate it’s Billy saying to Grady “Whoa! Ok! Ok! Ok! Ok! My turn. You don’t have a crystal ball. You can’t look at a kid and predict his future any more than I can. I’ve sat at those tables and listened to you tell those parents “When I know, I know. And when it comes to your son. I know.” And you don’t. You don’t.”………
its ironic that Wood is 6’7, same height as Aaron Judge, and Susana has the makings of an allstar closer, Abrams and Gore, and Hassell, (and Luke Voit!)
Wood and Susana look very promising.
Very underrate pitcher. He did a nice job for the Mets in a swingman role. Glad he has an opportunity to start. Should give the Nats some quality innings
Trying to catch lightning in a bottle is hard. Not sure why they gave this guy 2 years, but I guess it’s 2 trade deadlines and 1 offseason to find the right time to trade him.
cause an offer of 1yr probably wasn’t gonna get it done?
Nats are taking a page out of the O’s mold, only way to upgrade this team in the short term. Get relief pitching. The two Albatross’s for the Nats are Strasburg and Corbin contracts, while trying to sell the .. I would think they try and move Corbin’s this year. bad contract for bad contract. Maybe Donaldson and Hicks for him
deGrom, Walker, now Williams. Probably Lugo next. Guess pitchers don’t want to stay in Queens too long. I enjoyed watching him pitch with the Mets. Best of luck Trevor.
Even the Mets have a spending limit. Their payroll is close to $300M now, so they couldn’t re-sign all of these guys. With that said, Williams could have been retained at this price point no problem. The deGrom & Walker deals were outrageous and I don’t blame the Mets not trying to match either of those deals.
The Mets lux tax payroll is in the 330M range and its almost 400M with taxes
Cohen is the Walmart of baseball, he will swallow up low spending teams. Time to add 2 new teams and have them run by Cuban and Musk.
They actually don’t seem to have a limit and are way over $300M. In fact, every contract they sign now they have to pay nearly double for.
I took would have liked to see Williams come back to the Mets. But Von is spot on. At this point, every contract the Mets add they’re subject to the 90% CBT. So, the Mets would be paying approx $24mm for the same two year contract he got from the Nats. Too much even for the Mets for the 12th/13th pitcher on your staff. Besides, Mets already traded for Eliseir Hernandez from the Marlins a few weeks ago to fill the long reliever/spot starter role Williams held last season.
The Nationals owe Patrick Corbin a lot more than his luxury tax cost, particularly in 2024, due to his backloaded contract. They’re nowhere near the luxury tax threshold so this doesn’t really matter right now for the Nats. But seems like it should create an opportunity to work out a swap that offers luxury tax relief to another team.
Yes, but they won the world series, that is the price you have to pay. The Albatross hanging over their head is Corbin and Strasburg
My point is that the Corbin contract has value in a dead money swap with another team. A dollar-for-dollar trade could significantly lower another team’s luxury tax hit in 2023-2024.
You write that “the Nats have a pair of albatross contracts atop the rotation in Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin[.]”. Contracts can’t be in a rotation—they can’t pitch. As for the players themselves, Strasburg is nowhere near the rotation and Corbin is in it because they have nothing to lose by sending him out there to get hit hard repeatedly.
Williams could easily be their best starter in 2022. Even if he pitches like he has at his worst. They really are a terrible team right now.
(G)Nats, Oakland and Reds are out of it, even before the season starts. Three terrible teams.
Nats still have to fill out a roster and i expect them to probably add another middle Infielder or two (depending on if they are going to let Kieboom play SS) so that Abrams and Garcia can get more time in the minors
Kieboom won’t play SS. Nats have Abrams and 2 other bench guys that would sub before Kieboom.
He’ll get ABs at 3rd & maybe 1st/DH. He needs to show no yips at 3rd & his bat is MlB ready before he starts forcing his way into the lineup in spots like SS or even LF.
Nats may challenge the ‘62 Mets. This roster, as currently constructed, is worse than an expansion team. I can’t remember a team this far away from relevancy.
Check some early 2010s era Astros and Cubs lineups
Give me the Nats over teams like the Diamonbacks, Red Sox, Reds, Pirates, A’s Tigers, and Rockies, not a bad place to start! They got a better return from the Dodgers for Scherzer and Turner than the Sox got for Betts and Boegarts.
Not to mention the Os for like 5 years pre 22
Nah they aren’t that bad. They will win around 70. They are actually signing a few stop gaps
Nats warts showed because Corbin fell apart & injuries. With a solid Stras & Corbin at top of rotation, the rest of staff falls into some reasonable order. Gray as a young 3rd or 4th man would have far less pressure & might perform better.
He’s a good young pitcher. Just has to avoid throwing the mistakes that end up in the seats.
This staff really needs a high-end pitching coach. Why we let Mike Maddux go I don’t know.
Totally agree on Maddux.
The 2003 Tigers lost 119 games and were in the World Series 3 years later, things can change in a hurry
And?
Nice contract for Williams
Not too bad a deal, but Williams is historically worse as a starter than as a reliever so it’s hard for a team aiming for 65 wins to justify this, unless as someone wrote they’re hoping to pass him off at the deadline as a starter and pick up an actual prospect in case Williams has a lucky 4 months.
He’ll likely pitch well against the Mets. That’s just the way these things seem to play out.