This week on Big Hype Prospects, we catch up on some pre-holiday shopping.
Five BHPs In The News
Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 267 PA, 3 HR, 7 SB, .315/.386/.420
Moreno headlined the Diamondbacks return in the Daulton Varsho trade. FanGraphs describes him as “the most athletic catcher to come along since J.T. Realmuto.” Last season, Moreno continued to put his contact skills on display. A brief 73 plate appearance trial in the Majors yielded a high batting average and tiny 11.0 percent strikeout rate. He generally produces modest exit velocities with a low angle of contact. In plain english, power isn’t a big part of his game, but he’ll be a valuable hitter all the same. He’ll need to make substantial adjustments to ever become a regular 20 homer threat.
There are questions about his ability to carry a full workload given that he’s never topped 350 plate appearances in a season. He’s considered an above average defender with sufficient athleticism to improve. With Carson Kelly still in-house, the Diamondbacks can consider platooning Moreno between catcher and designated hitter while working on his durability.
Luis Ortiz, 23, SP, PIT (MLB)
(AA) 114.1 IP, 9.92 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 4.64 ERA
The lightbulb clicked for Ortiz partway through the 2022 campaign. His command improved as he became more aggressive with his domineering stuff leading to a successful 10 inning stint in Triple-A followed by 16 more frames in the Majors. Given his lack of Triple-A experience, it’s understandable why the Pirates have gone out of their way to delay Ortiz’s arrival via the signings of Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill. Ortiz has impressive Statcast measurables. Health permitting, he’s on pace to soon form a potent one-two punch with Roansy Contreras in the Pirates rotation.
Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481
Virtually everybody in baseball is ready to see Casas sink or swim as the Red Sox first baseman of the present and future. The only barrier entering this offseason was a certain veteran. Removing Eric Hosmer from the roster ensures manager Alex Cora won’t have to juggle any difficult decisions. Casas had a mixed 95 plate appearance debut last season, showing power and discipline but posting a poor .197 batting average. In this case, his .208 BABIP appears especially fluky. If anything, his batting profile is that of a high-BABIP hitter. Some of his at bats felt like he was selling out for contact (my personal observation, not that of a scout), a common “mistake” among debut hitters. Look for him to further refine his approach and consistency in 2023.
Eury Perez, 19, SP, MIA (AA)
75 IP, 12.72 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 4.08 ERA
On the shortlist with Andrew Painter for most exciting teenaged pitching prospect, Perez is one of the reasons the Marlins are shopping Major League starting pitchers. He’s on pace to arrive in the second half of 2023. Scouts laud his excellent fastball command and biting slider. He’s a skyscraper of a man whose very size ensures a unique look. Scouts believe his changeup can develop into a weapon as well. His curveball is seen as a less competitive offering that can play up based on the effectiveness of his other pitches.
It’s worth mentioning this is the organization that, a decade ago, jumped a 20-year-old Jose Fernandez straight from High-A to the Majors. Of course, none of those decision-makers remain on hand, making it highly unlikely we see a repeat with Perez.
Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 522 PA, 21 HR, 28 SB, .299/.342/.539
The Red Sox are reportedly shopping their prospects for upgrades with Rafaela serving as the most-highly valued of the bunch. Rafaela wasn’t a consensus top prospect in the Red Sox system prior to last season. Now he’s widely considered their third-best farmhand behind Marcelo Mayer and Casas. He displayed a tantalizing mix of power and speed last season, though there are still worrisome signs with his offensive stats. He lacks discipline and carries a high swinging-strike rate. Hitters who thrive with the Javy Baez profile are few and far between.
Should his discipline and whiff issues become an impediment, Rafaela has super utility man potential. He’s presently being trained as a center fielder. He also played 12 games at shortstop last season and has prior experience at second and third base. He’s considered an above average outfielder. I do not have reports on his infielding acumen.
Three More
Corbin Carroll, ARI (22): Although there was little doubt Carroll would start for the 2023 Diamondbacks, the Varsho trade all but ensures an Opening Day role. A line drive machine with excellent discipline in the minors, Carroll had a mixed debut. His 130 wRC+ in 115 big league plate appearances belied below average exit velocities and merely average discipline. Look for those traits to dramatically improve throughout 2023.
Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Another “winner” of the Varsho trade, Fletcher no longer has an entire squadron of outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart. Should Alek Thomas continue to struggle and Jake McCarthy suffer a sophomore slump, then Fletcher might just worm his way into the Arizona lineup. Likelier, he’ll serve as trade bait. The Diamondbacks still need pitching depth.
Kumar Rocker, TEX (22): Kumar made his debut in the Arizona Fall League, pitching 14 innings with mixed results. His 18 strikeouts were encouraging, but they were offset by 12 walks and a 4.50 ERA. He appeared in the news this last week in connection to Carlos Correa’s delayed contract with the Mets. New York selected Rocker in the first round of the 2021 draft only to back out of their deal over concerns with his physical.
Wrong Jose Fernandez
Ditto Eury Perez
Ditto Luis Ortiz……
Link for,the correct one
baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ort…
Wrong Eury Perez too. Here is the link to the correct Eury Perez profile:
baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=per…
Dotty – Did you notice both of the three Sox prospects were acquired by Dombrowski.
I guess he didn’t leave a barren farm system after all.
both of the three Sox prospects
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Both of the three?
JoeBrady,
Two out of three ain’t bad, right?
People definitely overlook what Dombrowski did besides the FA market.
You kean to tell me you’ve never heard of the famous old saying, “both of the three?” Lol
Meatloaf! God rest his soul.
Joe – Yeah I botched that up. I originally included Mayer as he was mentioned in the article, then I screwed up the edit.
At least I acknowledge my mistakes, I always do ;O)
LOL! Sometimes I go back to change something, and don’t realize that it changed the meaning of everything that followed.
I guess he didn’t leave a barren farm system after all.
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That’s actually pretty barren. In four years, DD’s drafts and international signings produced Casas, Houck & Ceddanne.
It is still early for development purposes, but we’ve accumulated a total of 2 bWAR from all the guys drafted in those four years.
Brayan Bello as well
That would be that new math 🙂
Jose Fernandez was an absolute stud. He’d probably be a Yankee right now. Truly could’ve been one of the best of this era.
That Fernandez had a cocaine thing which probably would have affected his playing longevity.
Yeah… Strawberry had a short career.
Doc Golden regardless of the no hitter was nothing more than average after his early big years.
Dwight Gooden too.
Doesn’t do any good to talk about it because he’s gone. I have no idea if he was a coke addict or a young rich guy who liked to party sometimes. He was a great pitcher and it’s a shame we never got to see it play out.
Addiction who made bad choices repeatedly.
Both. You can read about the ’86 Mets and coke. It was rampant in the clubhouse while the league then turned a blind eye and exercised zero enforcement towards ALL foreign substances.
Doc Golden regardless of the no hitter was nothing more than average after his early big years.
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The NYMs abused him. 276 IPs when you are 20 is ridiculous.
Joe, that was the. A time when the phrase pitch clock wasn’t a phrase.
@JB Not for those days it wasn’t. Doc didn’t even lead the league in games started that year.
I’d guess it was the latter, it’s just a part of the young Miami party culture.
Even still, I’m not going to judge the man nor his legacy based off letting loose and being young.
Lord knows, HARDLY ANY of us would want to have our own decisions criticized when we were young, naive, and still discovering ourselves.
I think we have to criticize those decisions if we do not want our kids and grandkids to make the same mistakes.
It is ok to skip drugs and alcohol.
We also can respect the athlete and remember that when sober, he was elite and amazing.
I guarantee you nobody even blinked an eye at that back in 1984.
He was a great pitcher and it’s a shame we never got to see it play out
I saw a lot of him early. A fried of a friend worked for a doctor who had season tickets. I saw him throw a couple of high-velocity FBs to Hundley, then broke off a lollipop curve that Hundley couldn’t even swing at.
I actually started to laugh because it was so preposterous to think anyone could’ve hit that.
My first MLB game in person was a Gooden start vs Padres in 1985. My sons first MLB game was a Clemens start vs Padres some 20 years later. Two of the very best power pitchers of my generation.
Baseballteam, never judge anyone without knowing their story. This is supremely judgemental and disrespectful to the deceased. You don’t know him, or his families pain. Just because he had it in his system, in no way means he had a problem. Many people are light users. Thank you.
Your comment that “many people are light users” is disrespectful to the addicted community. While it’s true that some people can use it occasionally, don’t send the message that makes it okay. Deceased or not, he used a drug that ended up killing him. Anyone who drives while high has a problem.
Same as a social drinker who ends up just one time in a fatal accident.
You had me until “Just because…”
Rafaela needs to get a serious look in spring training. Could be a player that surprises and runs away with a spot
Definitely
I’m thinking with a hot spring, the team has no choice but to have him in CF. Hoping he forces them to have him on the team from game one. Fans need some spark and he and Casas just might be able to provide it.
Rafaela has such a high floor he is an excellent defensive center fielder and grades out at least average on the infield. The concern is his discipline at the plate he makes a lot of contact the question is can advanced pitching take advantage of his propensity to swing. At the very least he is up the middle depth this year if someone gets injured.
Let’s not rush things with this guy. Let him develop.
I agree. He had a 51/10 K/W in A+ and 62/16 in AA. When Betts was in A+, he had a 17/23, and he had a 20/35. I think folks are way over-estimating Rafaela.
Sox should trade Rafaela if the right opportunity walks in the door.
Would have to be a great overpay which is unlikely to happen. The kid is Mookie all over again. Whether he can adjust to big league pitching like Mookie is too hard to predict. His OF play has been spectacular and he has been mostly an infielder.
Mookie all over again? Lol thats some high level hyperbole there. Hes had one solid season in the minors. Lets pump the brakes on Mookie comparisons. Even in the minors Mookie was much better.
Rafaela is no Mookie offensively, defensively he’s better then Mookie was that’s why he is floor so high. I watched like 50 of his games he is as good as any center fielder defensively in baseball including the bigs. He was a human highlight reel in center it’s where triples went to die when Rafaela was out there.
Bruin exactly. Mookie was not projected to be the superstar he became. He forced management to keep him in the majors. One thing about Mookie that later became evident was his penchant for perfection. He came up as a second baseman and forced the team to give him a shot in the OF where he became spectacular. This kid seems similar. Hoping for the best
Mookie all over? Like a lead chip cookie breeds townies.
Just because the swing they taught is the same as Mookie’s doesn’t mean he’s the same between the eyes. We can clearly see from his plate discipline what he is and it ain’t Mookie. It’s much more likely he’s gonna be a tiny defense only CF with a streaky bat in the bottom half of the lineup.
I’m referring to his glove and how he was an infielder who became amazing in the OF. Of course it’s hyperbole until he shines or fails but again Mookie in 15 when was called up was not projected a can’t miss superstar. He worked his butt off and so can this kid.
I think there could be some grasping for straws with those Rafaela = Betts remarks, I mean I understand, I would be looking for any sort of slice of sunshine too after this off-season of despair & desperation that Boston has put its fans gone thru. But Rafaela wasn’t even on most top prospects a lists a year ago.
Sometimes it happens. He was good enough to be signed. I realize today everyone can be seen but how many heard of Pedie in 2006? I remember how he was given the job and the fans wanted him gone in April. I realize I made a bold statement but at this stage of their respective career I see similarities.
Pedroia for sure.
I heard of Pedroia in 2006 because he was the Sox top prospect and I saw him make his major league debut in Anaheim that September. I think Rafaela is an intriguing prospect but you’re grasping at straws if you want to compare him to Betts already. Bat is questionable but every report is an elite CF, so think more along the lines of Bradley, which is still a valuable player.
“he’s gonna be a tiny defense only CF with a streaky bat”
Rafaela is only 21 yo, and has played against older players at every level of his professional career. He had an .880 OPS this year. I see a couple of years of development, before he’s ready.
Did you got your opinion from a couple of sentences from an MLBTR? Because the kid can hit and well as field.
Mookie? Sheesh, this is a Yankees-prospect level stretch.
Darkside. You’re looking at Mookie today. Back in 2015 at this time who heard of Mookie? Obviously I’ve set the bar at an unfathomable high. It doesn’t mean he can’t reach it. I just don’t want to see Duran I’m the OF. He’s a disaster in the field.
Betts was the top ranked prospect on soxprospects on June 13th, 2014. You should check that site out so that way you hear of these guys ahead of time and can read actual scouting reports.
Kumar Rocker signed July 26th but did not pitch for any of the Rangers minor league affiliates in 2022? His debut held off until the Arizona Fall League where he threw only 14 innings in 6 starts giving up 7 runs, a 4.5 ERA with a 1.7 WHIP? $ 5.2M signing and he didn’t pitch last summer and didn’t perform well in the AFL? I know some will say the AFL is for improving specific skills in many cases and that the physical results are more important than the statistical results, but that should mean a guy like Rocker with nothing to work on should have plowed through the competition. Some will say he was rusty from his year off, well, he pitched in an independent league, so he was stretched out and ready to go back in July when he signed. Something isn’t right here. He’s either injured and still trying to hide it or he’s just another 1st round bust that had college numbers and can’t get pros out.
The Mets might have dodged a bullet on that one.
More like a bazooka. So many red flags.
And in Return, they got Perada. The mets were very smart not to mess around with Rocker but really stupid they didn’t do their homework on him in the first place and let a lot of good talent go in the later rounds because of Money and then they end up leaving 6mil on the table. Not a smart way to rebuild the organization. I was happy they learned from that mistake. The 2022 draft was far better.
Rocker was drafted in a reckless attempt to get cheap in the first round to possibly get Brock Porter or someone else in the 4th round. That strategy miraculously worked, but I haven’t been as pissed off they didn’t draft Elijah Green since maybe 2011 WS game 6. That worked out, and they can perhaps trade both or one of them when they are eligible to be traded for someone good.
Too small a sample to be sure. Nine months from now you may get to make the same statement and be completely correct, but it seems too early for me right now.
Dbacks still have 5 lefthanded hitting CF. It’s still an area of strength for trading purposes, although the urgency to trade one isn’t there any longer.
The only surprise might be a trade with the Marlins, since the two teams are ideal trade partners, just like the Dbacks-Blue Jays were earlier this month.
I can see a Dback CF (not Carroll) going to the Marlins for a starting pitcher (not Alcantara or Eury).
We live in a prospect hyperbole type of world, but “above average” is very much selling Rafaela short as an outfield defender. Dude can hit a lot less than he did in 2022 and be a viable starter.
Seems like the consenus on Gabe Moreno is dropping pretty fast. Think Blue Jays pulled a heist there.
Yea, .300 hitting catchers are no match for .300 obp center fielders.
I normally don’t like the usage of batting averages as a primary measure of performance, but that one is hilarious. Varsho is like Brian McCann. He may be above average, but his value is highly bloated by absurd defensive valuations.
So as I’m reading everyone’s comments, I see guys talking about Stawberry, Gooden and then a lot of comparing Rafaela and Mookie and my mind was already reset back to the great Met’s teams of the late 80’s and I was thinking there is a lot of old people writing today because everyone is referencing Mookie Wilson!
I chuckled as I realized that it was a comparison to Mookie Betts.
IMOP, Rafaela has a long way to be compared to Betts…or Wilson just yet.
Of course he does but am I really the only one that sees the similarities? Let the kid have fun, learn and grow as a player and see where he is in three to four years.
You can enjoy the guy without expecting him to be one of the best players in the entire game.
The Texas Rangers choose to draft Kumar Rocker and Brock Porter in the 1st and 4th rounds as a risky strategy that somehow worked, even with a clear need for an outfielder. They could have drafted Elijah Green but didn’t. Given that, would the Nationals trade Green for Porter and Rocker? What about the Diamondbacks if offered those 2 for Drew Jones?
Why would teams trade prospects they just drafted? Not how that works. If they draft an outfielder, still would take about 2 years to get him in the majors, and that’s if they’re aggressive and he’s raking in the minors.
Free agent signings perhaps
“ “the most athletic catcher to come along since J.T. Realmuto.”
I mean he was literally traded for an even more athletic catcher.
GilaMonster11
The same thing is being said about Bo Naylor of Cleveland.
Once a buzzphrase get going……
I thought the same, but that statement presumably implies Varsho to be a dedicated CF going forward.
Man ‘o man, it sure would be refreshing to see a top prospect listing with a SFG after their name…
forever on deck;
That’s why they’re trying to sign free agents.
These articles are a nice feature. But they’re primarily – if not totally – based on things written by other people…..many of whom are writing what they read by other people….. after reading what someone that actually saw the guy play wrote.
MiLB.com offers a lot of minor league games. Trouble is that it’s usually one camera, and players may be working on things that the broadcasters know nothing about.
Nevertheless with salaries skyrocketing after a player puts in his 6 years even large market teams must have some young, affordable players on their roster else their ML payroll could easily top $400m and even $450m.
The off-seasons are always focused on ML teams “filling holes” with FA players – most of whom are overpaid for what they’ll produce. It would be nice to blow out this feature and discuss the players ML teams have on their minor league teams going into the season that may well make the team – especially as a starter – or be one of the first to be called up as injuries and players having poor seasons happen…..which they do for all teams.
That’s kinda what MLBTR is though. They typically get signing info from other sources.
Rightio, the purpose of MLBTR is to be an aggregator/clearing house/one-stop-shop where all the disparate baseball breaking news can be curated in one place. From Fansided, to Heyman, Athletic’s gaggle of HOF journos like Rosenthal, Twitter feeds of Passan, et al, to Joel Sherman at NYPost, etc etc it’s all collated for us here, capsulized & easy to digest. It was a brilliant idea when it started and remains vital imho and at least my first Go-To for MLB news. Thanks MLBTR Team for your outstanding efforts in 2022 and many more to come!!!!
They also reference paywall articles. So even though I still can’t access the articles, you get a good feel for the article.
One suggestion, perhaps include the players draft slot or who they were dealt for in a trade, etc.? Means of acquisition.
I saw Gabe Moreno in the Arizona Fall League, he’s as athletic a catcher as there is, maybe a little small but very good
Rafaela is another high K, A ball prospect that is feasting on lower quality pitching so his .300 average masks his poor onbase skills.
The only reason he’s of any notoriety is because of market. He will fade like the rest.
Not a Ceddanne fan, but he has promise. He hit okay in AA at age 21. When compared to Duran, who was ridiculously overrated, Ceddanne doesn’t really need to hit nearly as much to be a regular.
Joe, Duran was never a highly rated prospect until he went through his swing change. Duran did feast on lower level pitching by hitting the ball on the ground and use his blazing speed to get hits he put a lot of pressure on lower level defenses. The trouble with that style is it doesn’t work as you go up the ladder and the higher you go the less that style works. Duran, who is very athletic and strong, went through a swing change to unlock more power it was then that he became a legit prospect. The real issue with Duran is his outfield defense it’s terrible he was drafted as a second baseman and he was moved off the infield pretty quickly. He has had ample time to adjust. He makes terrible reads he has a terrible throwing arm he is very fast but still a terrible defensive outfielder.
Rafaela is almost the exact opposite he’s outstanding defensively especially in center field though he’s more then adequate at third, short and second. Rafaela also has a different hit profile then Duran before his swing change. He impacts the ball much more consistently he is a little guy similar to Mookie and looks like him he has obviously copied Mookie swing. I am not ready to call him Mookie 2.0 yet but he’s also no Duran his gold glove caliber defense makes sure of that. Rafaela is a sure fire big leaguer for his defense alone. If he can manage to hit .250 with with 15-20 homers along with his centerfield defense and defensive utility he’s a star. When you are as good and versitile defensively it lowers the bar for your bat.
On another note in 2013 a friend of mine who watched and went to a lot of minor league games told me that Betts was going to be the best player on the Red Sox within a couple of years for what it’s worth he’s similarly excited about Bleis.
Beans, Rafaela high K guy hardly he has actually lowered his K rate below 20% as he he has gone up the ladder. He is a high swing rate guy but calling him a high K guy is completely wrong.
Pirates gone out of their way to delay ortiz?
10 innings in AAA and didn’t get a MLB debut until September.
I thing a few months at AAA isn’t a stretch and using the phrase “gone out of their way” is out there. Also calling him a big name prospect is also a stretch. He has a fair chance at sticking as a starter but thinking he’ll be a top of the rotation starter seems like a pipe dream.
They signed Hill who is a starter and Velasquez who isn’t inspiring at all and likely is just an inning eater who cannot eat innings as a starter. He is a long relief type. (new eyes may help but doubt it)
I don’t see either one of these guys holding back Ortiz and baring a catastrophe Ortiz is likely to be in the MLB after Velasquez gets run out of the rotation
Don’t get me wrong. Velasquez isn’t a horrible signing but he isn’t blocking anyone unless he finds something new and becomes a fair back end of the rotation guy.
IMO Priester Rodriguez and even Nunez are a bigger deal than Ortiz and you could call them the same as Ortiz as being held back. IMO Edny will be in the MLB in 2023 if he keeps it up with his .900+ OPS in his pro career going up to AAA and he is the biggest deal in the prospect list than anyone right now for pittsburgh
And this coming from a experienced Pittsburgh scout…leave the opinions that count to the pros..not the armchair nerd that you are
Ortiz will become a very viable starter. With Contreras and Keller..that’s a hell of a rotation to start
leave the opinions to the pros., not the armchair nerd you are.. Just saying, a person giving an opinion isn’t any different than all but a few of the people here.
Who is to say that some of these people don’t sit around watching game footage and sit in the bleachers actually watching some of these men play?
I’d also like to point out that we generally agree on Ortiz as being a viable rotation arm Given the history of the current projected rotation he likely isn’t significantly blocked. I don’t think anyone would expect him to come out of spring on the 25 man after 10 quality innings in AAA and 16 in the MLB
I just don’t see him as ‘Big Hype’ as this article suggests but i can see him cracking some of the top 100 prospect lists going in to 2023
“He generally produces modest exit velocities…”, Moreno’s avg EV was 89.2 mph; that’s above average, not modest.