The signing of Jose Abreu filled a big hole at first base for the Astros, but the reigning World Series champions continue to explore ways to upgrade their outfield. Past reports have suggested that free agents like Michael Conforto or old friend Michael Brantley are on Houston’s radar, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) adds Jurickson Profar as a new name under consideration.
Profar hit the open market after opting out of the final year (and leaving $6.5MM on the table) of his three-year deal with the Padres. After some disappointing numbers in the first year of that contract, Profar rebounded to hit .243/.331/.391 with 15 homers over a career-best 658 plate appearances in 2022, and his offense translated to a 110 wRC+.
While this performance was strong enough for Profar (who turns 30 in February) to feel comfortable in exercising his opt-out clause, it does continue the roller-coaster nature of his last five seasons. Alternating between solidly above and solidly below the league-average 100 wRC+ threshold, Profar clocks in at a 101 wRC+ in 2384 PA since the start of the 2018 season. Between this inconsistency and Profar’s okay but not outstanding left field glove, it makes sense why teams have perhaps been hesitant about making a push for his services. The Astros are the first team publicly linked to Profar since the offseason started.
MLBTR’s projection of a two-year, $20MM deal for Profar reflected these concerns about his market, but things could certainly pick up now that several other big free agents have some off the board. Profar has the highest fWAR of any remaining free agent outfielder, and his offensive profile does contain such positives as a consistently low strikeout rate, and an increasingly excellent walk rate over the last two seasons. While there has certainly been plenty of year-to-year variance in Profar’s numbers, it can be argued that he might still be a safer choice than either Brantley or Conforto, both of whom are coming off shoulder surgeries. (Conforto didn’t even end up playing in 2022.)
Profar played only left field in San Diego last season, but he bounced around the diamond to play first base, second base, and the other two outfield positions in 2021. While not the kind of true utilityman who could replace Aledmys Diaz (who signed with the A’s), Profar could at least provide some extra depth on the Astros’ roster. The switch-hitting Profar could also help balance out a Houston lineup that is still heavy in right-handed bats.
Meyers is a better option.
He wouldn’t replace Meyers on the roster. Meyers will start the season as the starting CF.
The Astros view McCormick as a 4th OF, and much more of a corner OF than a CF. He will back Meyers up though.
Whomever the LH bat that the Astros sign will share DH/LF with Alvarez vs RH pitching.
McCormick is also very strong vs LHP but not nearly as good vs RHP.
Profar’s OPS against right handed pitchers was .717 in ‘22.
McCormick is also a better option than Profar.
I feel coming off a WS and with some intriguing youngsters looking for ABs ,
Astros are in position to sit back and see what they got.
outside of catcher depth, the roster doesn’t need much and can “replace” Verlander (or at least his spot in the rotation) with in-house options.
the lineup, as stated by others, has many mouths to feed.
McCormick should start in center.
Meyers looked pretty bad all year and even at AAA until posting .345/.462/.563 in September – 87 AB’s.
I could see McCormick and Dirden in some kind of platoon in LF before an acquisition of Profar.
Dirden vs RH pitchers @AA – .354/.432/.701 – 254 AB’s.
Meyers was also coming back from a bad shoulder injury. He was tentative for a while, like he was playing scared he would reinjure it.
As a lawman, is this guy in your Jurickson?
You Bett your Mookie he is!
Basically anyone alive is a better option than Profar. It is painful to think of what the Rangers could have gotten for him in terms of MLB players or top prospects if they had gotten rid of him before he busted. I predicted he was going to be trash, and he was. Numbers don’t lie. I am thrilled the Astros are willing to pay him money to play for them. Even if the Rangers have a worse player, not signing him would shield them from one of the franchise’s biggest mistakes. I do have a very favorable view of Jon Daniels, given the top 6 farm the Rangers have now and the pennants, division championships, and winning seasons every year from 2010-2017 except for 2014. However, not trading him was probably JD’s worst move (even more so than trading Kyle Hendricks for Ryan Dumpster). I mean Ryan the Human Dumpster, not Ryan Dempster.
No ones perfect, be happy your GM just poorly spends other people’s money (and can keep pouring more in) instead of trading away your best kids trying to keep up with the Jones’s
TLDR.
Go Rangers
Have no fear, DTR. They might be floating this rumor to raise his price to the Yankees.
while I agree with JP being nowhere near the hype ,
he’s arguably one of the best bench players in the bigs.
can get 15 HR off the bench from a guy who covers all 3 OF, 1B and 2B
(for injury or newly enhanced DH cycle)
his best role is bench piece on a contender, and guys are getting paid for that too.
His 3.1 WAR was appreciated in SD last year, so I’m guessing “anyone alive” isn’t better
WAR is a bad stat. It overvalues defense for a guy with terrible range and a bad fielding percentage. Look at his overall numbers and tell me he is 1.1 wins better than the average player and 3.1 wins better than a minor leaguer.
WAR is a bad stat in general.
I’d love to see all the WARS added up.per team and see how reflective it actually is of the record
probably not even close
Heyman pushing Profar on behalf of Boras….of course not. But this is a very ordinary player, and the “some” part of the interest Heyman says Astros have may be both speculative and optimistic. Hard to see what he does that would be worth it for the Astros to pay that kind of money. There have to be less expensive alternatives.
The only franchise who have been enamored of Profar is SD. They see things in him nobody else sees. I want no part of him because he is a mirage. So the self promoter. When things are going well the room stinks of his farts, and when they’re not you’re left with
You saying his mere prescence “lingers?”
AJ Preller was blackmailed for that awful contract he gave Profar. He had to be.
That makes no sense because profar opted out of it. So it wasn’t that bad of a contract for the Padres. Over the 2 total years I’d call him about a wash. 1 good year 1 not so good, either way it wasn’t a lot of money.
Jon Heyman is like the stock pickers on CNBC. Every day they show up touting this stock and that one. Later they talk about the ones they hit on. They never talk about what percentage that was.
A guy that later went to CBS MarketWatch started tracking their predictions, and published a newsletter ranking them. They were all shades of awful.
–
No one goes back to the people that pick NFL draft choices. Some have been doing it for 30 years and are terrible. Some one – or group – needs to track these MLB rumors for both free agents and trades. then publish some spreadsheets. I’ll tell your this – as each off-season is coming to a close many agents and players speak openly about which teams they were talking to. A majority of the time the teams that were supposedly interested in them and bidding for them, never placed a call.
Take this stuff with a grain of salt.
I don’t think he’s an upgrade over in-house options. I’m really hoping Michael Brantley re-ups.
Brantley is Bernie Williams 3.0
Brantley has a better arm than Bernie had… but that is not at all a strength for Michael.
it’s sad that I forgot about Bernie Williams.
thanks for the memories
They can do better.
Profar opted out because he was “less bad” than normal. Profar isn’t moving the needle for anyone. He’s just a guy….
And my pants weasel has some interest in Jennifer Love Hewitt.
Go into McDonalds with that 10 spot and you’ll be able to eat like a king for days…
I’m a king who’s in a daze, where’s my $10?
Nyuck nyuck nyuck
Hahahaha still cracking up @ “pants weasel!”
Don’t forget he has the yips for some of those positions. Had to move him to the outfield because he kept spazzing out and blowing routine throws as a second baseman.
And, no, I do not mean Dempster. I literally mean Ryan the Human Dumpster.
Profar is well below average at fielding percentage, range, and just the basic eye test. I don’t see how he has such a high WAR. He is a 5 tool player in that he is so good a being equally bad at everything. He is really inconsistent, and I predict and hope that he ends up not getting a contract all year like Conforto.
I hope he gets a contract with the Yankees.
I would love to see him get a well-deserved set of boos… by the home crowd. I remember watching a heckler shouting out how bad Profar was, and there were so few fans at the road stadium that everyone watching on TV could hear it. Imagine coordinated chants like that at Yankees stadium. I would almost make up for his disappointment.
Profar had almost the exact same WAR this year as Benintendi, and he had the same DRS rating too. Metrics also said he had a stronger outfield arm than Benny to boot.
I don’t think he’d be as bad as some doomers are saying.
He had the same DRS because of his arm. Profar’s range was absolutely trash.
Yankee Stadium I feel like would be better suited for Profar than Petco Park. If Stanton can hack it out there once in a while, a younger and faster Profar surely could too.
Profar is fine defensively in left. Je has a strong g accurate arm and catches all the balls. It was his first full season I’m the outfield and it was fine to better then fine at times. That from the eye test of someone who watched every single game.
There will be a play or so where you think he could of done better but overall it’s just fine. The plate he is ok but his biggest thing he does is battles at thr plate. I dont know what his avg number of pitches thrown to but he gives a real battle
He was the best lead-off hitter on the Pads, hands down. Often ran the count to 10 pitches wearing down pitchers. He’s learned to be patient at the plate and this improvement is no longer over a small sample size.
I’m hearing they may be interested in Profar as a Diaz replacement. But they are still interested in Brantley or Conforto to split LF/DH duties with Alvarez.
Any team that signs him is stupid when you could easily trade Tyrone Taylor or Winkers from the Brewers. No matter what those guys will out produce him 10 out 10 times
10 out of 10 times excluding 2022 when profar out performed both Winker. Taylor.
What an anomaly!
He checks all of their boxes, and he’s not that pricey for his age an production. He’d be a nice addition to the team.
Profar must be looking for a huge payday. A huge payday with a 3 year deal.
If Jon Heyman says it, then it must be true.
I always find it interesting with this guy. hits for crap, has one good year of below average but higher than normal hitting and all of a sudden people think he’s changed his spots. never really was a fan, guess I’m still not lol. oh well… that’s why I read articles about baseball and don’t PLAY professionally. just my opinion…
Profar’s value is he can give you 150 games of average production on both sides of the ball. One less thing to worry about for a good team where he can bat in the bottom half of the order. He won’t get more than 3 years so he’ll stay low risk. 2 yrs $18 mill.
He could just end up taking a 5 year deal with a lower AAV and many opt outs because of the contracts being handed out this offseason.
Possible, sure. Likely, no. Nothing close to a Benitendi deal.
No. I’d rather take a chance with Brantley.