The Giants’ offer to reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge is “believed to be [in the] $360MM neighborhood,” reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The number of years on the contract aren’t clear, though recent reports have suggested Judge could push for a nine-year deal. That would put the potential average annual value on San Francisco’s offer in the $40MM ballpark, or perhaps in the $36MM range if they were comfortable extending the offer to a decade in length in order to mitigate some of the AAV and luxury tax concerns.
San Francisco has long been seen as the primary threat to sign Judge away from the Yankees, given their increasing urgency to field a winner, the team’s wide-open payroll outlook and Judge’s fandom of the team as a child growing up in Northern California. Judge has met with both teams in the past week, and outside of some loose connections to the Dodgers, there’s been no concrete reports of other teams involved in the mix.
That hardly means Judge only has two suitors, of course. Coming off a 62-homer, .311/.425/.686 season that netted him his first MVP win, it stands to reason that the majority of teams would at least inquire about the possibility of a deal. However, given the heights to which his market appears to be soaring, most clubs would surely balk at making a competitive offer.
Still, today’s revelation that the Padres offered Trea Turner a $342MM deal that would’ve given him the third-largest guarantee in MLB history — only to be rebuffed in favor of the Phillies — has at least served as evidence that another team is willing to spend at the very top end of the free agent market (albeit on a different player). There’s been no firm link between the Padres and Judge just yet, but with San Diego eyeing the corner outfield market and having displayed a willingness to commit an unprecedented third $300MM+ contract, it’s easy enough to speculate that the Friars could emerge as a viable third entrant in the bidding.
Heyman suggests that even with the Giants’ enormous offer, many in the industry still believe the Yankees to be the favorites. The Yankees, for their part, of course continue to hope that Judge will re-sign and spend his career in the Bronx, although recently extended general manager Brian Cashman told reporters last night that agent Page Odle has not given the Yankees any assurances that they’ll be afforded the opportunity to match or exceed an offer from another team before Judge accepts (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).
The Giants have approximately $133MM in salary committed to next year’s books and are a projected $91MM shy of the first tier of luxury-tax penalization, so an AAV for Judge in the upper $30MMs or even reaching $40MM wouldn’t put them anywhere close to the tax line. Judge did reject the Yankees’ qualifying offer, however, so he’d cost the Giants their second-highest pick in next summer’s draft and also trigger a $500K reduction in their spending capacity on international amateur free agents.
Imagine him and possibly Nimmo standing around in the OF looking at his/their teammates on the field that are basically utility players to start the game, that may be swapped out for other utility players based on analytics as the game goes on.
Nah, they have other options. They’re 30 years old. Why would they go through a rebuild that may well not work?
That’s a nice neighborhood. I’d like to live there!
Adios
Don’t be so sure. This reminds me of 2007/08 and ARod. Remember it was supposed to be Hank that took over leading the Yanks but Boras made him look so bad Hal got the job instead. Judge’s agent could be the source behind this $360m leak trying to get the Yankees to bud against themselves. It worked for Boras why not give it a shot? You pay $360m for the final piece of your championship contending team. Not the 3rd or 4th. Makes no sense for the Giants to jump the Yankees reported offer that much. I hope the Yankees let him walk. His production can be replaced with 2 $15m aav players with far less red flags about their health. They have several other mashers already. They need table setters now. Turner was a perfect fit. Sad they let him go in favor of chasing Judge.
Padres signed Machado prior to their window
How do you replace Judge with two $15M players?
He gone; Cashman gonna sign Nimmo and Chris Carter.
Cashman gonna make surprise move to make up for Judge leaving by signing Felipe Vazquez.
You are not supposed to name the Pitcher Who Shall Remain Nameless. He is pitching in the PA Penal League and not sure that he can make Spring Training……
Why do you think that’s funny?
What he did was not funny in the least. What @Highest_IQ posted was to me a reference to the movie Major League. I did say that he should never be named again and he shouldn’t The last sentence was also just a reference to the same movie.
If the Giants want him, then they should get him
Judge will missing hitting in OPACY and Yankee stadium
Yankees need to rebuild or something
Can’t rebuild when you have Cole and Stanton on the books for like 6 more years.
And Hicks, and LeMahieu, and toss in another year of Donaldson. But give that ninja four more years.
Hicks and Donaldson are not on long-term contracts. Every Yankees fans wanted to re-sign DJL.
Nice try.
Hicks was given a 7-year contract that runs through 2025 with a buyout in 2026. I specified “another year of Donaldson,” which is one year too many at $21 million; plus, they have to spend another $6 million to buy out his contract in 2024; and if they want to unload him in a trade, he has a 5-team no-trade clause that might complicate that effort.
And, yes, most Yankee fans wanted to re-sign DJ, but some didn’t, including me. Look at his career stats and you’ll find that he had a sup-par OPS+ for most of his years in Colorado, and he was 32 years old when they extended his contract to run through his age-37 season. Cashman once again bought high on a player.
LMAO
I mean not a surprise by any means. Pretty much what we’d all expect to compete with New York. This is just Judge’s market.
The fact that the signing hasn’t been announced makes me think Judge is pushing the Yankees to match or exceed that offer- otherwise why wouldn’t he have signed by now? Unless it’s for 10 years and the AAV is too low for Judge’s tastes?
At the risk of repeating myself, I still believe the Yankees will re-sign him. He will get his best offer and let Hal beat or at least match it. I do think he signs today or tomorrow. He wouldn’t come to the winter meetings unless that was the plan
Ditto Coop! 10/400 drive it home Yanks!!
This s exactly the contract I was thinking of. I swear we must have some mental telepathy going on Trumbo!
Turning down 7/213 looks pretty good just 8 months later when you get 10/400.
And silly me, I thought at the time that 7/213 offer was fair.
It was a fair offer. At that time. This is now a different time.
No one expected this season. That’s the issue. He’ll never repeat it. I expect him to have very good years for the next few seasons before the inevitable decline that could be for six or seven years depending on when that decline comes. The Yankees got his peak year and they got the peak part of his career.
The Yankees will be weaker without Judge in 2023, but they may end up better in 2024 and beyond by freeing up money they can direct elsewhere, and it’s money that may not go to pay for a declining player in a few seasons.
We may find that out, Rob, at least based on reports.
As Pujols discovered leaving his legacy team, he may not be happy a couple years down the line, but he will be wealthy.
Yup. He’s going to push the price up based on other teams’ offers trying to top everybody else and then he’ll go to the Yankees and ask them to match or slightly exceed that number and the chances are the Yankees do match that number.
Look, turning down $234M over 8 years for $400M over 10 years is a massive win for Judge and his camp and holding out for that and giving the market a chance to solidify that price point was justifiable even before his 2022 season, now it’s exceptionally reasonable.
It’s the smart move for Judge as an individual.
If he wants to be close to home and win a world series he will go Giants, if it is about the money then Yankees.
Padres. Let the Preller hate commence
Tony Bennett left his heart in San Francisco but Aaron Judge is about to find his Wallet is San Francisco lol.
Keep in mind this is from John Heyman, so it could be pure conjecture.
Note the ever-present Heyman qualifier, “believed to be in…”
He does this all the time. Rumors for rumors sake, without any concern for credibility. Once out of every fifty times he’s right and he’s okay with that.
Clip if they bag the man up for 10/400 I want you to be elated and nothing less ok??? Hahaha No regrets when you guys get your man regardless of price!!!
Yeah man, like the tattoo commercial, “No regerts” today.
This market is….insane bro. This shows you just how much money these teams are hemorrhaging…. T Turner for $342MM?! Judge for…whatever it’s going to be over that? They must be raking money in so fast they’re having trouble spending it.
Haha I’m glad I missed that commercial Clip…If I saw it in 2016 I would have followed through with my Altuve tattoo.
Baseball is incredibly profitable, Clip. It is the second largest revenue producing sport in the entire world, only behind the NFL, which is in its own category. No MLB team loses money. None. Even the “poor” teams are profitable, but they are good at claiming poverty to their fans.
Yanks getting ready to come over the top with 10/400 and seal this deal. Seriously see it happening.
The Yankees can’t lose Judge. It will cripple them. He’s the only home grown superstar since Jeter. He is their brand. That guy puts butts in the seats at every ballpark.
Astros, nuff said!
The Yankees farm system was at its peak in the Gene Michael, Bob Watson days, Brian Cashman has not been able to fill the shoes of those guys.
Gene Michaels Evaluated Talent….Brian Cashman keeps re-reading his copy of Moneyball….
Watson made some awful trades. There was an article on Fangraphs showing how Stick Michaels wasn’t that good of a farm system guy and most of the Yankees players in the dynasty era were mercenaries
If Volpe, Dominguez, and Pereza are the real deal then the Yankees will be set for a long time..
And they’ve won what with him? I’d obviously love them to re-sign Judge, but let’s not pretend that the Yankees wouldn’t just move on and sign a couple players to replace his production. In fact, I’d think they’d pivot pretty quickly to other big name signings if he were to sign elsewhere.
If the Giants want to pay him $40 million a year then let that be their problem. That contract is going to look awful once he starts breaking down as a player and I’d wager at least half of that contract will be an albatross. Again, I’d love him to be the next captain here, but not at that price.
So he’s a Giant. Does NY go all in for Nimmo and Yoshida?
No, they already made their play and went all in for Cashman.
That is sad but true clipper. If the Yankees cared about what they claim to care about, Cashman would’ve been gone a long time ago. He had billions of dollars over the last dozen years or so to put together a world championship team and has been unable to do it, even though they claim to be all in on that every year ,laughably.
If the criteria is you have to win the WS every few years to appease the fans, then no GM would be good enough and the Yankees would be changing GMs every few years. And likely losing a lot for a decade.
All rise Here comes the Judge San Francisco
I’m curious if judge is approaching it like cano. Is guaranteed years more important that total dollars/aav? Does some one blink and give him 10 yrs?
GM, yes sir, the Yanks!
Hell I would of never thought a soon to be 40yr old pitcher would get $43 million so why not 12 lol.
GM, you missed a good thread last night where Yankee Clip, Edp007 and myself were discussing such matters haha
Big difference on a 2 year deal vs. 9 or 10 though
Surprise, surprise. Just get it done
Giants need to assemble a whole team, not just one guy to eat up the entire payroll. Unless there’s jelly on that pay roll.
In what world would the Giants not doing anything else after signing Judge. They have the money for plenty of other moves
Yeah just take him. Don’t worry though we got Stanton still cuz Cashman is a genius.
I got a spare pen if you need it Aaron.
Let me guess, it’s a 9 year/$360 million offer and SanFran will pay him $40 million AAV. Woof that’s a lot of money.
By the end of those 9 years it will probably look pretty cheap compared to the contracts that will be going out at that time. That always seems to be the case.
The deals always do look cheaper at the end, but they don’t look cheap at any price when the player collapses. Judge likely will be cut from either the Giants or Yankees the last couple years if one of them gives him a 10-year deal.
Miggy’s deal doesn’t look cheap now. Neither will Judge’s
Aaron Judge Yankee jerseys going on clearance soon lmao
Craven I see more like bonfire in that scenario..
Let’s be honest here, Brian Cashman is an absolute clown. The Yankees leaking that initial Judge contract offer pissed him off and it’s looking like he’s about to leave and I don’t blame him. Cashman is an incompetent and overrated GM and Hal Steinbrenner is a cuck for extending that jabroni for another 4 years.
There is exactly a zero percent chance that the Yankees revealing their offer will have any impact on Judge’s decision. This is about getting the most money.
Not according to the article that just came out Rob….
“We kind of said, ‘Hey, let’s keep this between us,” Judge told TIME after being named Athlete of the Year by the magazine. “I was a little upset that the numbers came out. I understand it’s a negotiation tactic. Put pressure on me. Turn the fans against me, turn the media on me. That part of it I didn’t like.”
google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/sports/aaron-judg…
But all these things are leaks from Judge’s camp to get the best offer. I read that earlier. It’s funny, the article includes the quote from his now wife about wearing a SF Giants uniform and saying he hopes that doesn’t get out, but it got out because Judge and his agents let it out!
If he gets upset by a minor negotiating tactic that he was told they were going to do enough to leave his current team, then I’d suggest he’s not a very strong man. We know that he is an emotionally strong man. It’s just the type of stuff the media loves to play up, the agents like to leak, and the fans love to eat up. Oh, yeah. It’s a negotiating tactic by Judge. Will the Yankees be upset and refuse to sign him because of Judge’s negotiating tactics?
In the end, he is going to play for the team he wants to play for. It will have nothing to do with a negotiating tactic from nine months back.
If he does go, he will pack Yankee Stadium one last time – opening day 2023, when he reappears with the Giants. Then the booes will be the entire stadium.
Hahahahahaha “pack Yankee stadium one last time”
Clip, @baseballpun mentioned below about them holding out for Shohei…Dare I ask how that possibility strikes you my friend?
I’m not Clip, nor do I play him on the internet, but Ohtani has always been a Yankee target. They had Eppler shadow him for YEARS when Eppler was with the Yankees. That personal relationship certainly didn’t hurt the Angels landing Shohei when he finally came over, although I still believe he wanted the West Coast more than the East Coast. If so, Eppler being on the Angels probably helped them compared to the Dodgers, Padres, Giants and Mariners. So, yeah, the Yankees will be all in on Ohtani if they lose Judge, or Soto the year after. Perhaps, however, the Eppler relationship will once again enable a different team, this time a different NY team, to land Ohtani.
Trumbo: I believe RobM said it best, sir.
Clip I always knew you looked like a “Rob.”
Haha! Like where your head is at, my friend. Rob is the best of us though. I wouldn’t even try to mimic him. He also happens to have the same initials as the baseball commissioner………
I’m just Clip’s PR agent!
Yeah I noticed Rob’s posts a while back and realized the same. He comes in strong consistently. A gamer.
I’m just an absolute lunatic
Take the deal.
I really wish we could post gifs on here. I have the perfect one for this comment.
Dodgeball
White bribes Peter with 100k. Dodgeball? 100k? Take the deal. Paraphrasing
That’s what Cashman gets for low balling Judge last season, and then leaking the negotiations to the media. Clowns in New York make it seem like “it’s the best absolute place to play in baseball”. Why? They haven’t won a World Series in god knows how many years. Also boo their players who hit over 60 home runs for them.
Go boo the Stanton’s and Cole’s of the world, talk about being ungrateful. “Oh, well New York is the best place to play in baseball” says who? People from New York? I’m sure Judge wouldn’t mind being a super start in San Francisco as well where they’d do nothing but cheer for the guy. While giving him all the money in the world to play for a great organization where he’s actually from.
Yanks should let him walk and back up the truck for Ohtani next year.
Baseballpun, intriguing idea..
If I’m prepared to spend $400m on Judge, I’d rather spend $500m to get a DH and and Ace.
Let him sign anywhere besides the Yankees so they futher bury themselves into the abyss of the AL East
Explain how winning the division qualifies as burying themselves further into the abyss of the AL East.
Please sign in SF and break Bonds HR record.
Signed the soul of Baseball
Frisco has to overpay players to come play there. No one wants to play for that 3rd or 4th place team next year
Not a giants fan, but theyve won three World Series very recently. This has to be a parody post coming from an a’s fan.
Eight years ago.
OK, A’sfaninDiapers. 🙂
Players are tripping over themselves in the rush to get to the A’s.
A’s fan btw
What’s the pulse in Yankees universe on Judge? I’d assume most want him to stay
Yes, that’s accurate.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH
Mariners gonna come out of nowhere and sign him to 10 years 385m.
Bank on it!
It will be comical to watch these contracts unfold in a few years. Not one of them will pan out beneficial.
Totally agree. Particularly the years…….anything over 5 is hugely suspect.
He’s getting 10/$380M-$$400M
64k per at bat.
Would work for me.
Insane. But if Trea Turner can get $300M, Judge is certainly worth 20% more.
So with these numbers out there this FA period, I am starting to think Soto made a mistake turning down the contract he was offered. I think it was $440 million, not sure he sees that number again.
Another one wrong for me. I had him returning to the Yankees. Never thought he would leave that tiny park for the big boys park in San Fran. But money talks$$$$$$
Judge to SF on 10 years $400M
That was my original guess during the season!!! Let’s go Giants!!!!
Can’t wait to see Judge break Bonds’ single season walk record next year! Bonds at least had Kent, Snow, and Aurelia around him where Judge will have nothin but scrubs to protect him.
If the Judge gets a contract for 9 or 10 years, it won’t be from the Giants. That ballclub is located in California — where state law limits personal services contracts to 7 years.
So I guess the Angels with Trout, LAD with Betts, SD with Tatis and Machado, etc., are all breaking the law?
Order of the Coif ↑ lol
@SupremeZeus
Googled it. LOL!
@Chucky, Machado has a 10 year deal in San Diego and Betts has a 12 year deal in LA.
No way a smart man like Farhan Zaidi thinks this is a good idea
How much higher might SF have to go? He would have signed already if this offer gets it done.
Come on Yankees step up & offer the man 9 years at $50mil per! 😉
You must be a competitor in the AL East.
Maybe maybe not 😉
Cashman has been pushing below market offers every step of the way. Yankees should be embarrassed. They can’t afford not to sign him. To land any premier FA you will be required to overpay. Ole cash will be coming hat to Judge very soon. Pathetic.
Serious question to the veteran posters; if the Yankees don’t sign Judge, do they focus on getting away from a heavy right-handed hitting lineup using the money that would have gone to Judge? Would Conforto be an option? Interested in seeing what you have to say?
They will spend at least up to the tax. Will get a outfielder. Nimmo could be a fit. Better yet Reynolds. Fans will be disappointed if not irate but likely they are better off spending 350 400 million elsewhere.
Thanks for replying! I appreciate it!
First, and more important, what branch?
Here is how I feel. If the Yanks are going to give Judge that massive contract, I’d prefer to see them going all in NOW. This team needs a lot of pieces and Judge alone does not make them a championship team. If the Yanks are not going all in, I’d rather they let him walk.
Thanks for your reply! I appreciate it!
USAF career (1987-2007)! I built bombs in my initial career field (AMMO–IYAAYAS) and built war plans in my final career field. I’m also a Desert Shield and Desert Storm veteran (1990-1991)!
Thank you for your service.
From one vet to another, thank you.
If we (the Giants…yes I am part of the WE) land Judge, Yankees may come back next year and make Ohtani the highest paid player in history….Giants may be on that as well next year…
Thanks for replying! I appreciate it!
Judge will go where he wants to play. We simply don’t know if that is! San Francisco or New York? What he is doing is leveraging the two teams against each other to get the most money he can from his preferred destination.
Judge’s camp is doing an excellent job of leaking information and every leak seems to be designed to get the Yankees increase their offer. Is that an indication of his preferred destination, or simply he’s using the Yankees to get as much as he can from the Giants? Have no idea. He’s had a poker face throughout.
So if Judge was upset that the Yankees leaked the preseason offer, won’t he also be upset the Giants offer has been leaked?
He shouldn’t be upset at the low ball offer that fans and media took his side on. Shouldn’t be upside at this leak as all it could do is get him bigger offers.
Not many people took his side on that. Most people around here agreed that the offer they made him was more than fair at the time given his body of work to that point. He went out and had a record year, which upped the price. I’d also expect him to “regress” more to his career averages going forward, which has to be factored in to contract offers as well. His averages are still great, but I don’t see him having the same kind of year he had again.
Most Yankee fans I know (unfortunately it’s a lot) desperately wished he would have taken that offer but respected that he was willing to bet on himself and it didn’t take them long to realize that he was right. The ones that though the low 200 and some was a over pay are now rooting for them to pay him 350 400.
Well the Yankees lowballing him in spring training is a lot more pertinent than the Giants offer being leaked (making him potentially the highest paid player in MLB history while the Yankees offer was not even close originally) likely on the day Judge is likely to decide is probably not the same comparison…
Judge has the right to make whatever the market can bear. The Yankees likely won’t be as good without him. But that level contract is potentially a stupendous albatross. Maybe they say no.
He earned it.
Sounds like this is all ownership, not Farhan.
This will be all over tomorrow!!
It boils down to whether Judge prefers the relatively stress free fan and media market of San Francisco or whether he prefers the way more intense fan and media market in New York.
He already is a media darling in New York and the Yankees als0 have his close friends Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo which in my opinion could be a bigger factor.
Does Judge want to go down in history as one of the all time great Yankees along with Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle and Jeter or one of the greatest San Francisco Giants alongs with Mays, McCovey, Cepeda, Bonds and Posey?
Can’t go wrong either way but I give the Yankees the edge.
He has the legacy aspect as a Yankee. He’s built that foundation through his 20s to position himself to one day join Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle and Jeter. For the Giants, the pressure starts with his 1st AB. Everything he’s done before as a Yankee will be meaningless as a Giant. He has to build a legacy he already has as a Yankee. No guarantee he can do that as a Giant in his 30s. His legacy could be an albatross contract.
unless that Yankee myth means nothing to him. I am not saying it does not but I dont know him. And as I said previously above, there will be zero.zero pressure on Judge.. We have three World Series, the fan base is satisfied. We just want to have someone to see when we go to the park or put on the game…
9 years til age 39!!! SF will have a huge ball and chain after age 35
This reeks of signing a guy after contract year to reel in the $$$ then flop after sometime.
I hope he passes on SFG unless there are multiple club option years
I love reading all these posters that believe everywhere west of the Hudson is some third world hellscape and that being captain of the Yankees is somehow worth $60 mil. Or that a team that won 106 games two years ago is a dumpster fire. They had a down year last year and still finished at .500. And even if they sign Judge they still have plenty of money. Likely the team that signs him will make the playoffs and the team that doesn’t won’t.
Nah. If the Yankees don’t sign Judge, they’ll pivot and make several other moves. They won’t be sexy. They won’t put people in the seats individually, but they’ll put a winning team on the field and that draws fans, and eventually they’ll make new stars, just as they did with Judge. Losing Judge might even force the Yankees to turn to players like Volpe, Peraza and Dominquez more quickly, just as they turned to Severino, Judge, Sanchez, Montgomery several years back. I’m not sure what the Giants move will be if they lost Judge since they seem a bit desperate here. That’s working to Judge’s advantage no matter where he lands.
The Giants (unlike Cashman) would have had Plans B through X drawn up months ago. It’s just the way Zaidi does business.
I think you’re right, in any case. The Yankees don’t have much choice except to speed up the ascension of their prospects.
Correa’s next on their target list if they don’t sign Judge. They are 90 mil. below the tax line so there are plenty of options. SS, OFx2, SP, maybe C,
Damaged goods. Pass. No thanks. Ellsbury 2.0
The Giants won a championship with guys like Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Nate Schierholtz, Andres Torres, Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen, Cody Ross, and Aaron Rowand playing significant roles. To say that the Giants can’t win with what they have is silly. Judge just signing with the Giants would be a massive morale boost moving forward
@Rsox Judge alone also boosts a ,.500 team into the postseason, most likely, in a 3 wildcard postseason setup.
U
As FA’s continue to trickle off the board, doesn’t Judge have to start thinking about who’s gonna still be available to whichever team he signs with? Because I’d assume he’ll want that team to keep adding talent. But even with an open checkbook, they’ll need to decide exactly where to allocate those remaining resources – hopefully with as many choices as possible still in play.
Giants fans would welcome Aaron.