It seems as though teams interested in signing Aaron Judge will have to commit to the slugger for the rest of his 30’s, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that “it appears increasingly likely” that Judge will land nine guaranteed years in his next contract.
It isn’t known if Judge is necessarily prioritizing contract length or a record-setting average annual value, but the reigning MVP might very well have the leverage for both. Mike Trout’s current deal with the Angels is the benchmark ($36MM) in terms of average annual value for position players, so if Judge was looking to top Trout’s record, it would take nine years and more than $324MM.
That isn’t far off MLBTR’s projection of an eight-year, $332MM deal for Judge, which works out to a $41.5MM AAV. If Judge is only looking to top Trout’s average salary whatsoever (rather than by a $5.5MM amount), technically a $332MM deal over nine years would do it. But, it could be that Judge wants to move the goalposts significantly forward for future star free agents.
Going into a ninth guaranteed season (which would be Judge’s age-39 year) might not have much appeal to teams if they’re not getting much or any break on the AAV. That said, Judge is perhaps a unique enough case that any of his big-market suitors might not mind the extra year — if a team is already willing to pay Judge in the $36MM range for his age-38 season, the ninth year might be seen as the cost of doing business.
If a ninth guaranteed season is now the going rate to sign Judge, it could put the Dodgers out of the running. “The Dodgers are believed to want Judge only on a short-term, high-dollar deal,” Rosenthal writes, which matches the club’s general strategy in pursuing any free agents. This isn’t to say that L.A. doesn’t abandon that strategy in certain circumstances, as it was just last winter that Freddie Freeman (heading into his age-32 season) was inked a six-year, $162MM deal. But, with Judge in position to at least double Freeman’s total salary, he might not be a fit for a Dodger team that could devote its resources towards acquiring other star players.
The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are the teams publicly linked to Judge’s market, and Rosenthal reports that some other teams have at least checked in on Judge, though it isn’t known if any of these mystery suitors are making a serious push. Last week, reports suggested that New York had made Judge an offer in the range of eight years and $300MM, and the Yankees weren’t viewing that as a final offer. Adding a ninth guaranteed season at the same AAV would result in a nine-year, $337.5MM offer.
And he’ll be lucky to perform for half of it. Good luck to any team dumb enough to sign him for that, you’re gonna need it.
The ridiculous overhype of one player needs to stop.
Trout is amazing—can’t win
Ohtani is amazing—can’t win
Judge is amazing—can’t win
It’s called putting a TEAM together not one dude who hits 60 homers
Braves, Phillies, Astros, Nats, and Red Sox were the perfect embodiment of this in each trade deadline enroute to their last World Series runs. No game is a greater team sport than baseball.
Tortas – I completely agree.
In football a great quarterback can carry a team because he’s involved in every offensive play.
.
In basketball you can get by with just a couple star players who are involved in every offensive and defensive play.
But in baseball, a superstar starting pitcher has no impact on 80% of his team’s games, and a superstar hitter has no impact on 89% of his team’s plate appearances.
But I will say this: I’d rather give a mega-contract to a 30-year-old guy with a career .989 OPS over 6 seasons (not counting his 27-game debut in 2016) than give one to a 21-year-old guy who has only 143 career games under his belt.
If that player is Julio Rodriguez I’d sign him 1000 times before I would sign a 30 year old judge….
That’s a very good discussion topic actually.
1000 times, huh? Exaggerate much?
Yeah, you know, other than the fact that the Phillies spent $330M on Bryce Harper.
its also what happens in the games. I never want to see any player get hurt. but look at Acuna, so many HBP, the hand breaking seems to have had a negative impact. Yelich also
It could be done, the Yankees have plenty of resources, they can still afford other free agents on top of judge, but of course they have their idoltry of the self impose salary cap ,and Steinbrenner‘s ledger, so they wouldn’t. So your point is well taken in that stead.
Yanks could sign Judge to max salary, add a pitcher and still be under the cap in 24, they will only have to be over for one more year. Right now they have over 100 to spend next year befor going over the cap. Judge and his group now this, and Hal has already talked to Judge about the commitment of the team moving forward.. The fact is Forbes had the Yanks making over 800 million last year.
I love to watch great baseball, and great baseball players. I try and keep the money aspect out of my watching and enjoying the game. It really has nothing to do with the play on the field. Judge had one of the best season of all time last year!
Max salary and cap? What sport are we talking about?
dr – No team, not even the Yankees, has an unlimited budget. It’s all about Net Income. If increasing your payroll substantially doesn’t translate to a substantial increase in revenue, then it’s not worth it. The Yankees, like every other team, want to make a nice profit every year. Winning championships is just the icing on the cake.
Of course winning increases revenue, but if the payroll increases even more than what’s the point?
You sound like Hal.
You are a businessman?
Yankees could match Cohen in the 290s if they wanted. Maybe reset next year.
kevin – I’m a guy who knows the inner workings of MLB front offices.
I also know the Yankees already have $103M committed to just 4 players, and already have $162M committed to just 10 players.
Add Judge and you’re talking over $200M for just 11 players.
You think the Yanks can put together a contender by spending just $90M on 15 other players?
Good luck with that brother.
slider – Nothing personal but your math is really, really bad.
Yanks have $162M already committed on just 10 players under contract.
Add to that $56M estimated for 29 arbitration and pre-arbitration players plus benefits and minor league contracts, and they are at $218M …. again that’s WITHOUT Judge.
Which means at this very moment the Yanks are just $15M under the threshold (there’s no cap).
Fever Pitch, if it were that simple — but it’s not:
pinstripealley.com/2019/4/16/18305860/yankees-2018….
Fink – Interesting article, thank you.
I’d be curious what their revenue was 2019 and 2022?
Keep in mind, attendance spiked in 2018 because they were coming off an ALCS appearance AND they had just acquired reigning MVP Stanton.
I get your point, the Yanks make a good size profit even with a large payroll. But from a business perspective, if increasing your payroll $80M doesn’t cause your revenue to go up at least $80M …. then what’s the point?
Attendance has always been high at Yankee Stadium. Besides having a huge, loyal fan base, they sell a lot of season tickets to corporate customers who entertain clients at the park. They have more revenue streams than just ticket sales, and that’s made explicit in the article. What’s more, the Forbes rankings don’t account for all those revenue streams.
A good point about Judge.
Here in Detroit, we have Miguel Cabrera. Miggy has been fighting injuries and father time for the past 6 years.
His production now is a shadow of what is once was.
The Tigers brass at age 30 signed Miggy to a 10 yr extension in a average of $30 million a season. At the time it seemed like the right thing to do given he is one of the greatest righthanded hitters in history. Unfortunately, this has hampered this team in both productivity on the field and cost could be reallocated to other areas of team need.
This should be a example of what NOT to do in player contracts.
Well it seems that even if they broke even on the 80 million, let alone profited one dollar, it would still be worth it. Part of the calculation has to be what the team stands to lose should they let Judge get away. Nobody is tuning into the YES network to watch Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson.
Money does play a role. Look at myles straw… He signed a 5 year 20mil extension and tried to hard all year to live up to it, making him have his worst offensive season ever.
Detroit and other markets aren’t necessarily the same. Illich spent his personal fortune beyond what the local market would normally bare.
Oh boy… You say you know the inner workings of MLB front offices…Well first of all, anybody who feels the need to tell everybody how smart they are is a guy, even a ” fever pitch ” guy, whose credibility is in trouble right off the bat.
( pun intended ). Do ya really think F.O.s are all run the same? Like say the 61 mil. Oakland A’s as opposed to the 287 mil. NY Mets. The Mets F.O. has almost 5 times the revenue to play with as Oakland does. Somehow, I think the mindset might be a bit different with the A’s as opposed to the Metropolitans. But in other areas as well. Some owners are hands on types, while others preferr to stay out of it and let the GM call most of the shots. And another thing. While any CEO would be interested in having a profitable bottom line, in the Yankee’s case there’s a little bit more involved. Namely, WINNING. I would say you have it backward. In the NYY case. Winning is priority number one. Now, we all know that Hal Steinbrenner is not his father’s son. (so to speak). While George Steinbrenner would pour profits right back into the team one way or another, Hal is somewhat more careful and wants to see the Yankee’s money spent wisely. But he is not cheap, regardless of what the hollow craniums that some Yankee fans are carrying around on their necks think. My point is it’s about winning with NY. Profits come second. Whatever your concerns are about the Yankees 2023 payroll are and the subsequent ability to build a “winning” team, I’ sure they will be fine. With or without Judge. FWIW, as a 60 yr. plus lifelong Yankee fan, I hope they do not end up having to overpay a ton to get Judge to resign. In fact, I would offer him 8 yrs. at 40 mil. and stop there. If 320 mil. can’t get it done, then the hell with it. Let him go to chilly at night SF and try to hit HRs in that field with those dimensions. New Yankee stadium is built for his stroke to all fields. He will regret going to Oracle Park about half way through the 2023 season, if that is where he ultimately ends up.
WINNING is the point, for the 2nd time. Where are you trying to go with this. Is this a new under the radar strategy to badmouth the Yankees, like they’re not a profitable franchise?… or what? Like you keep saying,…What’s the point?
That is a hollow argument. NY does have some other good players on the roster not to mention some of the kids coming up. And if Judge does leave, ( let him ), I’m sure they will sign several players who will excite the fan base. Not to the extent that Judge does, but players fans will like. Judge better be careful. He might suddenly find NY is getting cold feet if his agent tries to squeeze every last nickle out of the Yankees. Judge might all of a sudden find out it’s the Giants and…..nobody. Not a ton of teams want to drop 300 mil. plus on Judge for obvious reasons.
Profit is the point more than winning. Winning helps, but face it – the Yankees have been a second tier franchise for about 15 years. They spend ridiculously. And badly.
Ok, dog, if it isn’t judge, and it isn’t team construction, exactly why have the Yankees failed so spectacularly in recent years? If the NYY goal is World Series or bust, we’ll, then they have failed.
I don’t recall Ted Williams ever earning more than about 4-5 times the avg MLB salary in his career. Paying him ridiculously so that it hobbled his team’s ability to field a decent team was not the issue. Paying Judge a quarter or third of the total team salary would hurt the Yankees, who have a history of making very bad big money free agent signings in the Hal era.
A little of both. At times, the team hasn’t been constructed well. Mostly, the players haven’t done the job they were capable of. This year, a much better team beat them. Injuries hurt them as well.
It’s not JUST Judge or the organization, there are other people involved.
Attendance is just one dimension. The key to the Yankees business success is branding. The Yankees brand is based on pinstripes, logo, and a string of iconic players. Those players were Ruth, Gehrig, Dimaggio, Mantle, arguably Berra (in his unique way), and Jeter. Judge is on the cusp of that set. That’s worth a lot more than filled stadium seats; it’s about maintaining the brand.
You definitely have a talent of putting an amazing number of backward observations in one short little comment. I don’t have much time at the moment so I’ll just address the most laughable one. ” the Yankees have been a second tier franchise for about 15 years. ” This statement reeks of ignorance. I could make a rebuttable about that troll created Yankee insult in several ways but I will just say this. In the last 15 tears the Yankees have won more games than any other club in MLB, other than the LA Dodgers. They are tied for 1st place in wins in the 15 year timeline you stated in your ill-advised faux pa with LA, they both have exactly 1,528 wins in that time period. Yet, you say they are a 2nd tier franchise. The richest, most valuable team in MLB who happen to be tied for most wins in the last 15 years as well. What say you? Let’s hear some logically presented facts that NY is a second tier team.
Although I agree with the premise, Judge HAS won a lot. It’s a team game.
Dog – Judge has never played in a World Series.
I think Judge might be pricing himself out of the market. If the Yankees and Dodgers don’t sign him for his asking price which I’m guessing is in the 40mm a year range, who will? The Astros? The Giants? The Mets? The longer this lingers on, either teams will give in or Judge might realize he can’t necessarily get exactly what he wants.
FeverPitchGuy: Are you blaming him for that or the team structure?
Neither would be a strong argument.
And Ted Williams played in only one World Series in 19 years.
Come on, FPG.
Exactly. I guess Judge just isn’t a “winner” like Aledmys Diaz and Garrett Stubbs since they got to the World Series.
You leave Garrett out of this….his presence is appreciated in Philly….
Hope in the first 1/2 half of ’23 they give him a few more starts to flesh out his true worth…..arb eligible in ’24…
Lol! I’m not picking on him, I’m just using him as an example.
Dog – What?
I was merely responding to your claim that “Judge has won a lot”.
No, he has not.
I’m not going to get into the debate about whether or not he’s somehow at fault for the team’s lack of postseason success.
Fink – Where did I write, insinuate, or even hint that Judge is at fault for his team’s lack of postseason success.
Come on, Fink. I expect better from you.
ESPECIALLY after I just posted upthread how baseball stars are far more reliant on their teammates than basketball and football stars.
He’s in the postseason and on a contender almost EVERY YEAR. That’s winning to me lol
@thedogdays, I know, been Sam Adams(ing) since the US lost this morning…had tree delivered today and getting decorations out before Svengoolie starts in a few…..
There ya go. Sam is a good buddy of mine too….. not to mention a great patriot.
FPG, I responded to this post of yours:
“Dog – Judge has never played in a World Series.”
You contradicted your own premise when you posted that, didn’t you?
Thanks Fink, please explain it to me when it makes sense.
Fink – I already pointed out I was merely responding to Dog’s claim that “Judge has won a lot”.
He has not.
Just like Ernie Banks has not won a lot.
Just like Rod Carew has not won a lot.
Just like Andre Dawson has not won a lot.
Just like Frank Thomas has not won a lot.
Just like Luke Appling has not won a lot.
Just like Frank Thomas has not won a lot.
Just like Ryne Sandberg has not won a lot.
Just like George Sisler has not won a lot.
Just like Billy Williams has not won a lot.
All HOF’ers BTW.
Your attempts at trying to twist facts into something more are disturbing.
Especially when it’s all there for everyone to clearly see.
Ok so what’s your point with all that?
And I disagree. I understand winning the World Series is the goal but if you’re in the postseason every year, you’re doing an awful lot of winning.
The fact that we’re even comparing Banks winning to Judge is simply ridiculous. Again, not blaming Banks.
Dog – Getting into the postseason is not an accomplishment, not when 40% of all teams make it and most of the non-playoff teams aren’t even trying with payrolls that are a fraction of the playoff teams.
Winning between 90-100+ games every year is an accomplishment. That’s winning by definition.
Again, I’m begging now lol. You listed all those HOFers as not winning a WS. Why? What are you trying to show?
Dog – What I’m showing is many very good players haven’t even played in a World Series, and Judge is one of them.
What you’re showing is that you refuse to admit you’re wrong with your “Judge has won a lot” statement.
I’m beginning to think you’re an alias of Fink’s.
I’m not twisting anything, FPG. I simply observed that by insinuating that Judge is not a winner because his team failed to make it to the World Series, you were implying that Ted Williams was likewise a loser because his team only made it to the World Series once in his 19 years.
Your earlier observation was valid: in a team sport like baseball, one player can make a big impact, but he can’t carry a flawed team to a championship.
In making your comment about the lack of World Series experience in Judge’s career, you went against your own previous point.
Thing is, if Judge is only concerned with highest AAV then i could see him signing with the Dodgers to a deal similar to what they offered Bryce Harper years ago. If he wants the years though, it won’t be in LA.
The Yankees and Giants are the most logical suitors. The Yankees because obviously breaking Maris’ AL Home Run record, plus there must be a feeling of “unfinished business” there. Things worked out pretty well for the Giants the last time they brought a prolific slugger home to the bay area and Judge would certainly be the biggest slugger they’ve had since the end of the Bonds era
You’re all over the place bud.
To summarize:
—The whole baseball planet knows that some great players haven’t won a World Series. But thanks
—You think winning only matters if your team wins a World Series, as if Judge plays for the Pirates and contending every year bizarrely means nothing.
— But after stating that Judge is basically a loser, you’re adamant in saying it’s not his fault.
Wow
i have FPG on block. Right now, I’m so glad Im not reading his nonsense. Same BS everytime.
2017 Astros cheating might have played a role in that. Not really a fair criticism of Judge that he has never played in a World Series. His team doesn’t make the playoffs without him.
Fink – I insinuated nothing. What kind of liberal snowflake crap is it to attack someone for merely stating a fact, just because said fact isn’t to your liking. I know damn well what you’re trying to do, it won’t work on me.
You used your alt to falsely claim Judge has won a lot. I proved you wrong. End of story.
You didn’t prove anyone wrong. You just have a bizarre, nonsensical definition of winning apparently.
I feel like you think you made some incredible point or insightful stat. All you did is say a bunch of guys didn’t win the WS lol.
Whoa!
“What kind of liberal snowflake crap is it to attack someone for merely stating a fact, just because said fact isn’t to your liking.”
Now it’s about politics? What the hell does comparing Judge to Ted Williams have to do with politics?
I didn’t attack you. I simply pointed out that you were contradicting yourself when you implied Judge was a loser because he hasn’t been to a world series, which you posted AFTER saying this:
“But in baseball, a superstar starting pitcher has no impact on 80% of his team’s games, and a superstar hitter has no impact on 89% of his team’s plate appearances.”
You were right to begin with. I pointed out the contradiction, but I didn’t bag on you personally — but now I’M the “snowflake” when you’re the one who took everything personally and went into this needless tirade?
“You used your alt to falsely claim Judge has won a lot. I proved you wrong. End of story.”
My “alt”? I’m assuming you’re accusing me of posting under an alternate screen ID, which is total horse crap. I post under one ID, this one.
“I know damn well what you’re trying to do, it won’t work on me.”
Based on your disposition to suspect nefarious plots being hatched against you, it might be a good idea for you to withdraw from whatever political stuff you’re immersed in and take a breather from it. It’s not a great neighborhood, the Twitterverse and those other digital battlegrounds for the politically obsessed. I dumped them years ago and feel better for it.
Good luck, bro. No hard feelings, and I hope you feel better soon. Sorry our usually cordial convos had to devolve into this garbage.
Is that all you got?
Of course you don’t want to get into that debate because you won’t have a leg to stand on. It blows your too-repetitive argument that Judge hasn’t won a lot to smithereens. Your letting your dislike for NY get in the way of your ability to come up with common-sense arguments. Not to be nosy, but are you Jimmy Fallon?…lol..a little…You know, the movie, Fever Pitch…you being “Fever Pitch Guy…Red Sox fan Jimmy Fallon…Makes sense, huh? lol..a little bit more…
So that’s it. Did I break the community guidelines for comments posted? You were rounding up my comments to throw them out? For what, may I ask?
” your comment is awaiting moderation ” What rule did I break?
Are you a janitor on the graveyard shift who decided to jump in and play moderator? Red Sox fan? Republican Trumper?
“What you’re showing is that you refuse to admit you’re wrong with your “Judge has won a lot” statement”
This is literally the most bizarre statement. I obviously knew Judge didn’t win a WS when this started so not sure how I was proven wrong.
We just look at winning differently. I’d love to know your definition.
Fink – You really need to go back to your safe space.
When myself and billions of other people routinely mention that guys like Ernie Banks never played in (did you see that THIS TIME? I wrote “played in”, I did not write “won”) a World Series, you and everyone else nod your head in acknowledgement.
But when I write the exact same thing about Judge? You come at me with “Oh my Gawd, how can you say such a thing about my hero Aaron Judge! Take it back, take it baaaaack”.
Cut the Thought Police crap, you’re a damn liar.
I called Judge a loser? Really?
You mean like when I wrote that I’d rather give Judge a mega-contract instead of Tatis? Really? Seriously Fink?
Get help.
Fink – Nobody likes Minority Report crap.
Don’t accuse others of saying things they never wrote, said or did.
Who argued Judge went to a WS?
Nobody lol
We aren’t misquoting you, you’re simply not making any sense so we’re left with piecing together your bizarre rants.
Your premise is Judge hasn’t won a WS, doesn’t mean he hasn’t won a lot. I’m sorry the Yankees bug you so much.
Because you’re saying trumper this trumper that. This is a MLB rumors site it has nothing to do with you constantly wanting to put republicans down. Stop getting political for no reason.
Political? Huh?
“Fink – You really need to go back to your safe space.”
It’s sadly obvious that the irony in this remark is entirely lost on you as you throw a tantrum here on the message board.
As a rule, I don’t block other posters, no matter how little regard I have for their comments. Even the proverbial broken clock is right twice a day.
But between your paranoid accusation that I and another poster are the same person, and your parroting of right-wing cliches (“snowflake,” “safe space”), it’s very clear that you’re speaking from a mindset of hyper-political animus with which I have no intention of engaging. As I said, Twitter and other digital food fights are not for me, so henceforth you can spew into the void, but you won’t get any more replies from me. I won’t block you. I don’t need to. I’ll just ignore you.
And finally, in regard to your calling me a liar when I haven’t said anything untruthful here, I’ll try to clarify something that might’ve gone past you.
Perhaps you didn’t understand the meaning of the word “implied” when I said, “by insinuating that Judge is not a winner because his team failed to make it to the World Series, you were implying that Ted Williams was likewise a loser because his team only made it to the World Series once in his 19 years.”
True you didn’t say explicitly that Ted Williams was a loser. I picked Teddy Baseball for comparison because your screen name implies (there’s that word again) that you’re a Red Sox fan, and Ted’s team famously only made it to the World Series once and lost. But the truth is, I could’ve picked any of the many great players who never won a World Series — several of whom you listed above — to make the same point.
Despite the contortions you’ve resorted to in denying the meaning of what you said, the meaning is perfectly clear to any honest, thinking person.
First, the poster TheDogDays said:
“Although I agree with the premise, Judge HAS won a lot. It’s a team game.”
To which you replied:
“Dog – Judge has never played in a World Series.”
What possible meaning could be taken from that reply except the insinuation that Judge is not a winner?
So, I pointed out the contradiction between your previous acknowledgment that winning in baseball requires a whole team, not a single star player, and your subsequent implication that a failure to play in a World Series defines a player as a loser. You do realize that “loser” is the opposite of “winner,” no?
And with that, I’ll leave you to your rancor, rudeness and self-contradiction, because it’s really true: life’s too short to waste precious time.
Yes. That’s all jogo wrote last night and wondered why he was being moderated.
Which is exactly why the Yankees couldn’t progress last year. It was all about Judge and homeruns, not about hitting to the gap and legging out doubles.
Huh?
Leg out doubles?
It’s a metaphor. Basically I’m saying they relied too much on homeruns, not enough on the small moments that matter.
Yeah or they just got smoked by a better team unfortunately.
pedey – Having Judge bat at or near the top of the lineup was also idiotic and cost the Yanks plenty of runs.
They definitely got beat by a better team.
The only way he’s good in leadoff is if he has another power bat behind him, which didn’t work out well.
You think Cora’s bad, I find Boone worse. Guy is only managing the team because of a homerun in 03. That’s the only thing that made him relevant. Yankees find any way to bask in glory.
I don’t think Boone is a terrible manager, I just don’t think he’s a great one.
At least Boone never finished in last lol
Wait, you’re the guy that says Judge only brings homers.
Nevermind
pwndroia, I agree that Boone isn’t a terrible manager. I think he’s underrated by most Yankee fans — during the regular season. He owns the 10th-best W-L% of all managers in baseball history.
But after watching him in consecutive postseasons, and especially the last one, my impression is that he’s prone to indecisiveness and makes panic moves when the postseason pressure is on.
As for batting Judge in the leadoff spot, I get the rationale. His best batting splits were in the leadoff spot this year, and the leadoff hitter gets more at-bats in the course of a game. Also, who was a legit leadoff hitter on Cashman’s flawed roster? Aaron freaking Hicks? LeMahieu had an injured toe or he might’ve been a tolerable leadoff hitter. Likewise, Benintendi would’ve been a good choice, but he was on the IL.
Judge’s numbers in the three hole weren’t much worse than in the leadoff spot, but he wasn’t hitting in the postseason anyway, so how much did it matter?
Lastly, I’m not at all sure the Boone makes decisions like who’s batting where in the lineup, among others. The prevailing suspicion is that he was hired because he made it clear in his job interview that he’d take orders.
He ain’t hitting 50 again, ESPECIALLY if he goes to SF.
Good point. He’s not strong enough to hit it out there lol
Unbelievable
He has already done it twice in the 6 years he has played. Why will he not do it again?
Apparently because it’s too big of a ballpark for him I guess lol
To be fair – he has done twice in 6 years. Why will he not do it again?
He very likely won’t hit as many in San Francisco as in New York, but he still might hit 50 or more. In his career he’s hit 5 out of the Oakland Coliseum (15 games) and 5 out of Citi Field (14 games), both of which yielded among the fewest home runs this year:
onlyhomers.com/ballparks
Stop putting lol after every single comment you write. We get it.
What you’re saying is the angels should sign judge.
That’s supposing the only goal of a baseball organization is to win games. It’s not.
“Trout is amazing—can’t win
Ohtani is amazing—can’t win
Judge is amazing—can’t win
“It’s called putting a TEAM together not one dude who hits 60 homers”
2017 was Judge’s rookie season. Since then, the Yankees rank third in the majors and second in the AL in regular season wins.
Mike Trout has played in one postseason series, the 2014 ALDS. In three games he batted .083 with one RBI and one run scored on a single home run.
So, since Trout hasn’t mashed in the postseason, we shouldn’t regard his career OPS of 1.0019 as anything special, even though it’s the 11th-highest OPS in baseball history. Who’d want him on their team — or Ohtani — or Judge?
Of course I am
In 7 years Judge has 220 homers and 908 Ks.
Essentially, he has played two full seasons doing nothing but striking out.
RIP
By your math, Ted Williams and Hank Aaron spent about half a season doing nothing but grounding into double plays.
Babe Ruth spent about 11 seasons doing nothing but getting out.
RIP
OIC, way to give the whole picture. Let’s not include great defense, being a total run producer and averaging 50 hrs in a full season….
@ dog days
But he doesn’t average a “full season.”
He just did two years in a row.
AOC – 729 career games is just two seasons?
I wasn’t aware MLB switched to 365-game seasons.
Lol I didn’t say every year. I said his average per 162 games.
Instead of being sarcastic, simply comprehend comments.
You’re starting to sound like A’sfaninUK
OIC2021, Judge’s rookie season was 2017. Since then, he’s second in OPS and wRC+ among qualified players, second to Mike Trout. He’s first in fWAR.
I can’t believe you got six upvotes for that comment.
If we were on this site in the old days, OIC and his upvoters (new word) would focus on Babe Ruth’s lack of speed.
I’m not a big fan of these big contracts either, every owner will have to pay them though if they want the sales and marketing pitch for these type of guys. Trout, Stanton etc…have all probably made ownership their money back two fold
@Balk, these contracts pay for themselves and then some. It’s more than just on field production. They are signing a face of a franchise and bolstering a brand.
How’s that working out for Votto and the Reds
The Yankees will make money regardless of what they pay Judge.
@Yanks2 Or Miggy and the Tiggers.
Or Rendon and the Angels. Or Pujols and the Angels.
Or Bryant and the Rockies. Or Arenado and the Rockies…
Reds stand out more because they’re such a low market organization and signing an Ohtani wouldn’t even bolster their brand
Just remember though, Judge isn’t doing this for himself. He’s only demanding a record contract to help further the markets of his fellow players. This is a sacrifice he is willing to endure for the betterment of others. I’m sure his press spokesman willing tell us he would play for free if it was up to him.
You’re joking, right?
And both haven’t won anything since 2009!
I know and understand the winning part, but ownership is all about the money. You know that and I know that.
smh, the players aren’t?
Not your money
That huge body type is not gonna age well in the batter’s box, at some point he’s going to lose too much bat speed and will become a 40 mill a year league average outfielder.
I don’t even understand the anti- Judge mentality.
1) I agree, injuries are a concern.
2) But to make it sound like he’s just going to break down at about 34 is ridiculous. Nothing about him suggests that he’s some lazy guy who will just take the money and not take care of himself.
When teams sign these stars to long contracts, they realize the backend probably won’t end up well. They aren’t as stupid as you think.
It’s not health or dedication, I just keep thinking of Richie Sexson’s abrupt decline after he lost bat speed and had that big slow swing.
Richie Sexson vs Aaron Judge?
Cmon man geez
When do you think this loss of bat speed will happen? When he’s 33?
No idea, but that’s kind of the point. That ability to brutally cover the outside of the plate with a long powerful swing can turn into a liability real fast. One of my teams (the Giants) is in on this bidding and the 40 mill a year on the back end is just too worrisome.
Teams understand it probably isn’t worth it on the backend.
But in the meantime , you have a superstar that is productive while generating a lot of revenue via different streams for hopefully a number of years.
Don’t get me wrong, there is an argument to be made either way. There is risk obviously, but almost anything worthy does.
Frank Thomas was 6′ 5″ and 240 lbs officially and looked a lot heavier than that, and he hit 39 home runs and drove in 114 runs when he was 38. When he was 39, he hit 26 home runs and 30 doubles and drove in 95 runs.
The signing will be about selling tickets as much as baseball quality.
Exactly. That aspect is lost on some here.
Not that I blame them, some fans don’t want to deal with the business part of the game.
Unless a contract becomes a liability and causes a team to decline, losing ticket sales…
Yeah like any big contract…. If he gets hurt when he’s 38 then…
I don’t believe he’ll be able to perform at his going rate of performance for half of that 9 year contract, not a huge Yankee fan but I do like some of the teams they once put on the field and tried to find there direction in Baseball Comedy it was golden….
good luck to whatever team is dumb enough to give him 9 years
Such a useless comment, yeah its “dumb” to get a guy who will get MVP votes every year for the next 5 years. Wait, that’s not dumb, you are.
Stop hating on salaries and contracts, it doesnt matter, billionaires have deeper pockets than you can possibly imagine, your opinion on future contracts = production is meaningless, it doesnt matter at all. Braves won a title without their best player. Big money deals “blocking” a team from success is a lie.
And how does getting MVPs translate to championships? Because last time I checked Judge sucks in the playoffs.
What are you on about? If by “best player” you mean a 21-year old Acuña at the time of signing, he has one of the most team-friendly contracts in sports, let alone in 2021 when he made $5 million. I’m pretty sure most teams don’t constitute that as “big money deals.”
It is a hobby friend. Breaking down and analyzing contracts / team building is my favorite part of the game. Discussion is kinda the point of this website, no?
Its a rumors site.
Yes it is. And rumor has it you’re an angry person. It sure seems that way.
The majority of your comments are you complaining or degrading someone else’s comment, A’sFan. I’d rather be dumb than be anything like the person you are.
Nice ripping Willie. He is a below average commenter with poor takes.
Thanks Willie and Clepto. It’s kind of cool to read confirmations about some odious troll that I muted a long time ago, who’s name I probably wouldn’t remember anyway. 🙂
Better Living by Muting!
WillieMays;
Unfortunately he’s clueless, annoying AND dumb so he’s a human hat trick!
I wouldn’t, and I’m one of the biggest Yankee fan you will find.
as an al, east american league fan,iwant him to sign.but after 3 years he will not be worth 35 to 40 million per year the yankees are not dumb enough to give him 9 years.they may give him 7.judge is on some good drugs if he thinks he can get 9 years,lol,ha,ha,ha. not gonna happen
I wish he would just sign so the storyline can move on.
Agreed. If you’re not a Yankee or Giants fan, this is tedious.
i said it before, he is going to get 9 x 335, he’ll beat both Trout and Harper
Wow! What an unbelievable prediction. Lol… And in a few more years some player will pass Judge’s contract. Duh!
Sure will. Yet even this website that specializes in predictions hasn’t predicted 9 x 335
give him that 9th year, yankees! haha
Let him go to San Fran. , the Mets lost deGrom the Yanks can lose Judge and both still do good
I bet the Angels are going to give him some Pujols-style 12 year $450M deal til he’s 43 or something lol
Terrible post as normal. The Angels OF and DH spots are full.
Homer reply guy coward as normal.
Yeah block Aaron Judge with Taylor Ward totally sounds like an Angels move, actually no they sign Rendon to block Fletcher at 3B.
Terrible take, imo. The idea in free agency is to upgrade your worst position with the best player you can afford. With the Angels, the key to their improvement is NOT trying to replace a guy with a .833 OPS.
@Plug Angels DH spot definitely full. I’d say it’s overfilled. Having Ohtani as a DH is amazing, but might b worst team to tie up DH spot. The DH spot should b utilized to keep Trout’s bat in lineup while giving him regular rest from the field. As injuries are starting to take a toll on Trout him being in field daily could definitely cut short career of a generational talent
Judge will be the Angels RF/1B for the next whole bunch of years, just wait….
Well that guarantees he won’t.
@AsFan there is pretty much zero possibility of that. Moreno is selling the team. You do not add another multi hundreds of million dollar deal prior to selling. That is an enormous burden that could greatly limit an already extremely limited market of potential buyers.
Well if the Angels did sign Judge (and they won’t) it would give them enough cover to trade Ohtani to any team the offers enough on return (even the Dodgers or Astros). But in that alternate universe all Yankee players have beards.
what’s gotten to you? too many glasses of single malt scotch and water?
I smell a Albert Pujols type of results…
So 6 and half years of decent numbers(and I honestly not sure what numbers Pujols put up for Anaheim. After 9 years, judge is fired finds a new home for half a season returns to the Yankees the following year and the last year of his career. Sounds about right to me. I don’t think Judge will age well.
Now the Yankees need to worry about the Mets now going after Judge
So does this mean the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks have dropped out of the bidding?
According to Twitter, not at the current moment…..
Miami will sign him then trade him to the Yankees later
First it was 7 years and, oh no, you’ll need to go to 8. Now you need to go to 9. The goal posts keep moving in the wrong direction. Hard pass
Ma4170;
It’s going to take the most desperate ownership and FO in MLB.
This year it’s a tie between the Rangers and Giants.
It’s appears the past few years that the Yankees went for the cure somewhere. Will they suffer a relapse?
Is there a dark horse out there?
Let the wheel spin and we’ll see the biggest sucker organization in MLB today! The Judge contract will be the Academy Award for ineptitude along with an overriding need for attention and adulation.
Who will it be?!?!?!? Enquiring minds want to know!
Haha my money is on…. the Giants
They reek more of desperation right now in terms of needing to make a “splash”
I don’t see desperation in the Rangers or Giants at all.
TheDogDays;
Really?
So their farm systems are stamping out quality prospects, their FO is making astute trades, their coaching staff is getting the best out of their players, they’re sending a half-dozen players to the All-Star game each year, they’re winning games hand over fist, everything is running smoothly…..but what the heck…..let’s give out a bunch of multi-hundred million dollar contracts to “fill holes”.
That’s being inept at certain things, not desperate. Two different things.
I think some of the players developed , trades and FA signings have been positive.
I’ll take their infield over the Orioles , who you seem to think are in the verge of being the 27 Yankeees.
9 years sounds insane, but if you can lower the AAV, then it can help the contract be more reasonable.
But only so much Von. Remember, he still wants to have thr highest AAV of any position player in history.
does quatar have a baseball team? they will double that.
LIV Baseball lol
Correa will want to beat Judges deal.
I could see the padres jumping in on judge. If they are truly willing to sign a shortstop for 200-300m. Then might as well go for judge. At least the padres need an outfielder. Said he wants to play center, big upgrade over Grisham there.
Texas will be checking in as they would like to have a billion committed to 4 players. They need someone to combine with DeGrom to get this years half Billion completed.
I know it’s all about AAV for a few reasons, but man this screams for an approach in 3 year increments for a total overall guarantee of 9 years.
3/$150M, 3/$111M, 3/$102M for 9 years/$363M
I think if Judge got and accepted that he’d sign tomorrow.
You’d be wasting his time trying to pitch that short guarantee.
No it’s still a 9 year guarantee it’s just the matter of what he’s paid in total or the AAV for the first 3 second 3 and final 3 years.
It’s a 9 year contract, period. It’s just about the salary structure.
I misread. I think he’ll take that but I don’t think the Yankees need to go that high. If SFG goes $350MM, then maybe.
Why would you both not just overpay him, but wildly overpay him, AND frontload the deal making it cost you tens of millions more than if you had simply averaged the total for each of 9 years?
Inflation (real and baseball) figures to knock anywhere between 33% and 50% off the value of the last year of a 9 year deal. Baseball teams are never in a hurry to pay a salary—hence all the deferred money we hear of.
Nine year deal
You are paying $46 mil for years 1-3
$40 mil for years 4-6
$25 mil for years 7-9
Nine years $333 million tops Harper’s total and Trout’s average.
It will happen. It is a very bad move unless you are one of the highest spending teams and intend to stay that way. Yankees, Giants, Mets or Dodgers, in that order of likelihood.
This is where we find out how dysfunctional the MLB gm’s are and are not ! Who is smart enough to add good players to build a championship. We know it’s not cashman but there are other gm’s who are so much better at it than others. Maybe cashman can go to Texas and help them ,they seem clueless enough like him !
3 years of star (not 2022, but star) seasons, 3 seasons of above average, and 3 seasons of wishing the contract ended after six seasons.
Exactly
Could be just me but anything more than 7 years for judge is too long of a deal. Add options for a 8th and 9th year with a buyout. He’s going on 31. No matter what he gets will be overpay. Again that could just be me
No it’s not just you. I know it’s overpay and deep down so does all the teams. But youngster want him or you do not. And if you want him that’s what you have to pay. Only way to prevent this would be to make a deal with the other teams and you know that would be collusion.
I have no idea why it changed one of my words to “youngster” ha.
Depending on who you listen to, 1 WAR is worth between $5 and 8M on the open market. Judge posted 10.2 WAR per Baseball-Reference last year. That means he would be worth between $50 and $80M. So even if his contract is a $36M AAV for 8-9 years he is going to be relatively underpaid at the beginning of his contract. Sure, he likely isn’t going to be able to produce 10 WAR every year, especially at the end. But by the end of his contract that 1 WAR will be worth more than it is today and the CBT Threshold will be a lot higher. So it likely isn’t going to hamper any of the teams that are likely to sign him. And given the fact that we have the DH in both leagues, he has a good chance if he stays healthy to be at least somewhat productive even towards the end of his career.
I have found that despite the consistent uniform valuations of 1 WAR, players are rarely paid exactly or even particularly close to what their WAR would indicate they are worth, with rare exceptions (such as Carlos Santana’s 1.2 WAR earning him a $6.725M one year deal, which is almost exactly the value of his play last year)
Anyway, yeah, as highly as they’re paid, WAR analysis would indicate almost every single baseball player is underpaid or overpaid relative to their production-guys rarely are paid truly what they are actually objectively worth in WAR to Dollar ratios.
If you buy into the formula to begin with
He only got these insane numbers because it’s his walk year. But regression isn’t even the biggest fear for clubs that sign him – it will be injury. Contracts are fully guaranteed and while there is insurance, that is limited. I could be wrong but my understanding is that a player has to miss the entire season.
@tiverdoc
Other than last year, has he ever posted 10 WAR in a single season before? Do you believe that last year is his new “expected” performance level? That he outperformed expectations last year most definitely should effect his pay rate. However, ignoring his previous production levels, will lead to disaster, turning fans against him when he does not live up to unrealistic expectations.
His social media hints at him going to San Francisco. Judge is not coming back.
I would lean your way on that to. I’d definitely take SF and NYY against the field for sure.
Wouldn’t be surprised if LA is pushing his price up for SF. Ultimately think he returns to the Bronx. Mystery team could be Mets checking in.
Pass. We just saw his last spectacular year. Now he will hit 25 home runs a year for 40 million
Great player deserving of getting paid, but nine years is a disaster waiting to happen. He’s only played two full seasons because he is injury prone. He’s the same age as Trout, but Trout’s numbers are light years better– not close. If the Yankees commit to nine years on top of the remaining six years to Cole– playing a risky game if he gets hurt. But if any team can afford to take a hit like that it’s the Yankees.
Holy players market Batman!
Well, he’s reportedly going to sign during or immediately upon the conclusion of the Winter Meetings. Also, he was reported very early on to have 8-9 years @$337M on the table.
If both are true, it would line up with what is being reported here. Curious to see how it plays out, but it will be nice when he signs so the rest of the market can get going…..
Clip, as much as I appreciate Aaron Judge, we have not won with him, we can just as easily lose without him. If the Yankees sign him, and do not surround him with quality players, then it doesn’t matter if he’s on the team or not. Nine years is ridiculous for any player, but especially a player 31 years old. Anyone who signs him for that long is making a big mistake, and it’s largely based on recency bias. It’s doubtful he will ever have a season like the one he had this year. I think eight years is even too long honestly. If the Yankees do commit, we could have Ellsbury all over again. The Yankees have largely refrained from this sort of thing in recent years, will they abandon that approach and do it now. I tend to doubt it but we really do not know. We will find out soon enough.
Not ever repeating (or topping) last years numbers is one of the safer bets you could make..
Aaron Judge is no Jacoby Ellsbury…
Yanks Final Offer Clip: 9yrs 360mil… What do you say? Keep inching up if need be? Outbid everyone? 10th year??
Screw it..10 years 400 mil. Take it or leave it.
Trumbo: it’s tough for me because Judge is a generational player (for the club/fans). So, the possibility of him being a lifetime Yankee has an emotional appeal that makes money/years irrelevant. Plus, Yankees have the money to eat his contract easily and not bat an eye.
That said, looking from a completely pragmatic, objective perspective, I would not go 10 years for Judge or $360M. At some point you have to have a cutoff, which is understandable. If the Yankees are in fact higher than everyone else and the Giants want to just edge them out a few million, or another year, it’s got to be enough at some point. I can understand them saying, “8/9 @ $300-$340 is our best/final offer”
BUT, the Yankees better get on their horse and start signing people then, instead of making excuses like they have the past two offseasons by saying they’re “saving for Judge,” yet here we are.
So hypothetically, would you rather judge 9-333 or use that money toward rodon and Nimmo?
Ma: Great question and I don’t know, to be honest. Here’s why: The choice is presented as binary, which is fine, but it doesn’t tell me if the Yanks will do anything else if they sign Judge.
So, I guess I would word it this way….If they only sign Judge and don’t do anything else of significance, I’d rather he walk. You can’t make up for his production, but multiple good players will have a greater impact overall on both sides of the ball throughout the entire game/series/season, imho. And that the added benefit is you won’t have his back half negative value to deal with too. I’d love a Turner/Nimmo/Rodon though. That would make me happy!
Hope that answer makes sense.
yep, that’s the context I meant… same way I felt about degrom vs. rodon and a player. But I do think Judge is a little more important to the Yanks’ success and the fanbase loves him.
And yeah, if you could get turner too? Oh my
Except those loud Yank me fans that booed him in the playoffs…
Clip I agree with you to a point. The problem is, can we trust the Yankees and Cashman to make up for Judges absence if he is indeed let go ,with quality players that can in any way ,shape or form ,make up for his production. I would tend to doubt it ,which is truly frightening. Or do we end up with more deals like Donaldson and Hicks. I understand the question was hypothetical and so is your answer and binary as well
Money end of the day will not be the deciding factor for Judge. He is going to get the money from either the Giants or Yanks just does want to stay in the Big Apple or go home???
He’s a kind of man who will announce retirement and forfeit the rest of his contract when his knees break so he might as well go for a 20-year contract.
Right. Because players always do this (heard same things about Pedroia, Ellsbury, Pujols, Cabrera, etc.) Hence GUARANTEED MONEY
Those guys are all shorter.
haha.
Giants.
This screams of Chris Davis 2.0
Lol Chris Davis will always be the worst contract in sports history. Judge will at least be a superstar for a few years of his next contract
Worse than Pablo Sandoval?
Judge will be good but the money tied up is insane and will cripple any organization. Unlike Trout, Judge really only gives you homeruns too. It’s either that or a K.
Judge only gives you Home Runs….
Now he’s Dave Kingman lol
Ridiculous
The guy just had a 10.6 WAR and you think he’s Rob Deer…
Astros 3 years 135 million with a fantastic chance of getting to the World Series and probably winning. Seems hard to pass up unless it’s strictly money.
He turned down 213M. He’s not going to take 135M
$213M? The Yanks have an 8/$300M offer on the table right now.
Before the season he turned down 213m
Yes I remember, And last week he got an offer for 8/$300M from the same team that offered $213M, making that first offer null and void.
213 for 3 years?
Or if it is strictly he wants to go home??? The money does not hurt.
9 for 99! What a deal!!
I love the Yankees and Judge but at these levels it’s a hard pass for me. Sign Verlander, Bogarts, plug in some youth trade Hicks & Donny for a bag of balls, Torres for an OF and call it an off-season.
It’s going to be an albatross contract all together. Can’t believe there’s this much hype around this guy. He likely reached his ceiling stat-wise, meaning he won’t ever replicate a similar season like this past one.
Why any GM would actually give a 6’7 280 lb outfielder whose going to be 31 in April 350m+ dollars is beyond many peoples’ comprehension. He’s going to be amazing for 2, maybe 3 years. The remaining part of the contract and how he performs is anyone’s guess given his age and injury history.
This contract will be worse than Pujols. Yankees would be better off just using that potential salary and signing two decent pitchers and then trading for another outfielder like Bader.
Yankees need more Harrison Bader-type players. Remember, Judge did nothing in the playoffs and it was Bader who showed up and he makes significantly less money. If anyone agrees or disagrees I’d like to hear opinions on this because I can’t be too off the mark from being mostly accurate in my opinion
Who cares if he ever repeats this season? Does Harper have to hit 62 HR’s to make his contract worthwhile? Machado? Betts? No. Heck, a 40-HR season is a big accomplishment. 9 seasons of 30-something HRs would be an accomplishment. I hope I never hear once more this crap about him never repeating 62 HR’s as if that alone makes this deal a waste. Big deal. That’s not necessary to make a $300M deal worthwhile.
You’re right. But with that being said, he needs to still perform at a superstar level if he wants Max Scherzer money. He likely will buy only for a third of his contract
But*
It is not about the stats for the Giants pursuit. They need people coming to games and there is no reason last year and the coming one without a huge name and presence like Judge. That is what will drive what I think will be the Giants making him the first $400 mill man.
62 Hrs this year great but after he gets paid he will hit 62 Homers again but this time it will take him 2 seasons to get another 62 homers.
He’s going to hit 117 HR’s next year!
30 max.
48
40.5, take it or leave it!
But oddly enough, all solo homers.
Hahhaha That would be intensely odd wouldn’t it Coop?
He’s very good, and good at more than just hitting home runs. He will sell a lot of tickets for a new team. He’s going to be paid enormous amounts of money. It will be more than he’s worth. None of these four things are contradictory.
There should be yearly limits on contracts like hockey. This isn’t good for the game, and the fans will have to pay for it.
only if there are limits for ticket prices, concessions, etc
Hot Dog: $2.00
Large Pepsi: $2.00
Nachos: $1.00 (with 2 extra sides of cheese included)
Cracker Jacks: $1.00
Parking: $2.00
Like D FENS (Michael Douglas) said in “Falling Down,” We’re rolling back prices to 1965!!
Dolla-twelve!
Hahahahaha Scott knows..
It’s funny, I don’t mind paying ridiculous prices for concessions as it’s part of the experience.
But expensive parking is tough to swallow.
People around here tend to generally agree or understand the value of individual players-total years and dollars, option or no option etc. so it bothers me that the CBA and Luxury Tax are so focused on the AAV when we all can see a player like Judge needs a record shattering 3 year deal followed by a market value (in today’s dollars) 3 year deal followed by a veteran bonus but well below current and future market value 3 year deal in one package.
A $50M AAV a $37.35M AAV and a $27M AAV or whatever across three 3 year chunks on one 9 year deal.
Because single season salary and AAV are both important to players but one doesn’t necessarily reflect on the other.
It’s bizarre to me that contracts have all these different structures of dollars per year going up and down round and round but the AAV is what actually matters and the present day value will never match the end day value half or a full decade later…
Dodgers have never been a fit for Judge and this “nine year demand” is just one of the reasons. I suspect Yankees are just being played and bidding against themselves at this point. Farhan is even less inclined than Friedman to swim in these waters.
Farhan ain’t calling the shot on this one. This will be a pure ownership/org push…
I hope the Yankees sign him for 10 yrs, $400 mil !!!
Possible..
The Detroit tigers should go big for Judge. Build the franchise around him. Texas spent insane money on a oft injured pitcher, Detroit could do way better signing Judge no matter the final cost. 10 years 400 million, let the other teams weep.
Then trade E Rod, and a relief pitcher to N.Y. for Stanton. Come on Chris I, make this off season exciting for the fans in Detroit. If you get them, the fans will come.
Good luck with that one. Not a lot of best player in baseball types want to end up in Detroit. Sorry that is just a harsh reality.
Happy for Dusty but screw the Astros.
I’m glad I’m not a MLB team GM. There’s no way I’d sign him. I’d laugh in his face and say “good luck with that”. And then the fans would hate me.
I’ve said all along its the Yankees so I’m sticking with it. They want him bad and that’s where he wants to be. A deal has to happen. He just wants to get his market worth.
Except he may want to be home…
When you say ‘market worth’ it sounds like you mean the highest amount from a team. That may not be the Yankees. Some other team may have a need to overpay wildly to generate interest or push them over the top but that top dollar is only one team, not every MLB team.
Players his size never age well. I see lots of injuries and half the production in years to come. Didn’t Nostradamus predict the same thing for him? Lol
You’re about the 100th person to make that prediction on this site. You won’t be the last.
Btw all these people saying they’d pass on Judge because of his age and how likely it is that he will decline over the course of the deal- welcome to baseball, where unless you break in at 19 years old and peak at 25, you’re going to be under paid during your healthiest most productive seasons and an aging player in decline during your prime earning years, hence why guys get paid for what they did, not what they will do.
Baseball makes so much money and the players are so underpaid relative to the revenues the industry generates that overpaying older players on overlong contracts is a flaw baked into the structure of baseball.
As Judge ages and declines, some other young guy will arise as a .300 BA/50 HR/130 RBI averaging production wunderkind who will be severely underpaid for his value, and then reach free agency in his late 20’s or early 30’s and people will say to not bother signing him because he’s gonna be old soon and not worth it.
It’s a flaw baked into the DNA of the game. Old free agents getting their career paydays and young minimum salary to extremely team friendly arbitration or early extension salaries who are saving the teams money.
Do you want the system to insist on underpaying the young pre free agency players and then not paying them because they’re 30?
Do you not believe in the free market?
Should we pay any break out rookie $50M his sophomore year through his 6th year and then ask him to play for some kind of minimum because he’s 30?
Why do you care? Every owner knows what’s going to happen when they offer these deals. Every player knows.
It’s all baked into the system.
One day we will be having this same argument about Anthony Volpe’s free agency, even though right now he’s the great young generational talent we need to anchor the Yankee’s line up and infield for the next 15 years.
You call it a flaw. The owners call it by design.
“Baked in” means “by design” and a “flaw” doesn’t mean an “error” it just means that there’s inherent downsides to something that still inherently functions well enough and as desired.
Aaron Judge is easily the best Yankee on the team, and I won’t feel the least bit of resentment towards him if he goes to the Giants.
Nor will I feel resentful towards Hal and Cashman if they let him go — IF — and it’s a big if — they then acquire the players they need to contend with the Astros, and that includes dumping stupid contracts like the ones Cashman gave to Donaldson and Hicks, and spending to get Rodon, Bogaerts and Nimmo. If they go into spring training again with inflated ideas about the quality of the rotation and without the bats to compensate for the loss of Judge, it’ll be another failed offseason.
Show me the money, Hal.
I should’ve said the stupid contract he assumed in trading for Donaldson.
Amen, Fink!
I forgot the dumb contract to LeMaheiu too, but you probably remembered, Clipper.
I didnt think the Lemahieu contract was awful at the time.
Neither did most Yankee fans, DogDays. But if you looked at his career stats, you might’ve been given pause.
In his seven years with the Rockies, he had only one season with an OPS+ above league average, and the year before they signed him the first time, his OPS+ was 12 points below league average. His monster seasons with the Yankees were anomalies up to that point.
A three-year contract extension might’ve been justifiable, but a six-year deal taking him to his age-37 season? He doesn’t have the power to transition to a DH role nor the power profile of a typical first baseman, and he’s not an outfielder. He’s still a very good defensive third baseman, but he doesn’t profile as a starter there either.
If he can get back to hitting for a high average, then fine. But it’s been two years of a mediocre batting average and a lot of time off with injuries.
Fink,I believe from comments that were made at the time regarding DJ, based on the two extraordinary seasons he had with the Yankees ,when he first got here ,they were looking at ,or he wanted a deal with something like four years at 22 to 23 million a year.
So the Yankees ,being the Yankees, they made the years longer, with the pay per year less, but basically fungible with the $23 million a year it would’ve been for four years. Basically they thought they were quite shrewd in arranging the contract that way so that basically the last two years were free, in their mind. You know there’s something like the self imposed salary cap they’re obsessed with.
Haven’t posted in a long time but will about Judge and Yankees.
First if the Yankees sign Judge the only way it works out well is if they go even further over the Self-Cap and make this Team a WS favorite. Otherwise they are just throwing money away.
On Judge, yes he’s a Big Man but unlike the few comps out there he is a athlete and I suspect has learned how to take care of his Body. I think he Ages way better then the general opinion shows.
Lastly, Judge with the AL HR Record as a Yankee is now an Icon for the organization. He is the next Link after Jeter to continue Yankee Legacy Players and I believe that is worth a Ton of Dollars. JMO
Time for the annual “I can’t believe this team is going to spend all that money on a free agent” gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands. Giants will sign Judge and I am not going to be surprised if it hits 10 years and making him the first $400 million man. Giants want to make a statement and it isn’t and does not have to be just about winning. Giants have to put butts in the seats. They had their lowest attendance in the new park. A million more fans in the stands pays for Judge in itself. Giants have to contend with the attention and focus the Warriors receive just a couple of blocks away.
I’m cheering for the Cubs to swoop in and nab him for 9yrs, 360 mil…
You really want him hitting in Busch Stadium? Okay.
The man comes across as one of the most professional players in the game. Says little, does a lot. Unlike robots, humans age differently. Both parents were PE teachers and it looks like he got educated early. He knows how to look after himself. If you are backing someone to age well, I’ve got him as one of the better bets.
Just hurry up. It’s killing me.
40 yrs / $600MM… every year after year 10 he can convert it to a team spokesperson deal at the same salary. Blows away biggest contract and team is only hit for $15MM cap hit for 10 yrs minimum. Probably not allowed but some team should try it , tie it up in court for 2-3 years and then when they lose court case they are out of the contract. Perfect plan.
Riffraff, solid, we can run with that!
Yankee fans will by and large not have difficulty parting with a guy they think is making stratospheric demands.
You have the best screen name I’ve ever seen in my life!
That will depend on what kind of team they field without him. If they put another “meaningful games in October” team on the field (to borrow Fred Wilpon’s notorious patented phrase) while Judge mashes for another team, they’re going to hear it from the fans at Yankee Stadium, don’t kid yourself.
The Yankees made the postseason this year, and you still heard chants of “Fire Cashman!” and “Fire Boone!” at the stadium.
Increasingly likely to land a nine year deal? Does that mean someone has offered him a nine year deal? If not, then why is it increasingly likely?
Feels like a leak from judge’s camp as a push for nine years in advance of the Winter Meetings.
Just throw in the ninth year for the league min. plus $50MM league MVP bonus and seal the deal already.
It will be interesting to see how age and time will affect Judge’s power which basically is his whole game….amazing to hear Yankee fans who must remember Jeter’s last couple of seasons and how not only the NY press, but Yankee fans also called him a has been who shouldn’t be playing….giving Judge a 9th year taking him into his 40th year of age should be a non-starter for Hal Steinbrenner…….if/when he signs with the Giants, the Yankees pivot by signing Correa to play short, until they DFA Donaldson in May, moving Correa over the 3rd and sharing SS with Peraza……..He can be a beast and give the Yankees the power corner infielders that make the lineup go. As far as fan reaction to the whole Astros cheating scandal, the Yankees can effectively market Correa to their fan base who, the first time Correa walks off a win will win over Yankee fans who crave being able to compete effectively with the Astros in the AL. Time for the NY Yankees to get a little edgy again and make other teams fear not only coming into Yankee Stadium, but fear the team makeup as well……..just my opinion!
To mention Judge in the same breath as Trout is ridiculous. One is on the path to the HOF while the other has had a couple of good years. Not even close.
Speaking of ridiculous comments . . .
Judge played his rookie season in 2017. Since 2017, he ranks first in fWAR and Trout ranks third.
Trout ranks first in wRC+ and Judge ranks second.
Trout ranks first in OPS and Judge ranks second.
Not even close?
You think Judge isn’t on a path to the HOF?
Cashman sure struck gold with one trade:
cbssports.com/mlb/news/watch-yankees-jose-trevino-…
Anyone who gives him 9 years is DumB.
I’m all about players getting their money but there is no way I would go past 6 years on a deal for him.
And there’s no way his agents would waste time on taking your phone calls after you made that known.
You only have to take a look at teammate Giancarlo Stanton to realize that too long of a contract term will have a major downside. Stanton, brought over as a right fielder, has been getting paid the past 3 years or so to DH for almost $30M per season. The Yankees still have 5 more seasons to endure the downside of his contract. If they were to go ahead and sign Judge for 9 years, then he would have to play the outfield the first 5 of those before he could do the DH dance. And, like many others have said, the Yanks just got swept despite the best season Judge will ever have. They need have space to offer Severino an extension after 2023. They do lose Donaldson’s contract after this season, and young players such as Volpe, Peraza, Dominguez, and Wells will break into the lineup, so signing Judge is a good idea, but I cringe to think of a 9th year.
Stanton’s contract is an albatross, but I wouldn’t compare him and Judge apart from their comparable exit velocities.
Stanton looks like a bodybuilder. Judge doesn’t. Judge is a complete athlete. He’s a rangy outfielder and an above-average base runner. Stanton gets hurt running the bases.
To me, this sounds like the Giants ownership. They’re desperate for a superstar to market in the Bay Area, especially one that is from there.
Plus, if Judge signs, others will follow. The fans are sick and tired of the Dodgers and Padres putting out lineups consisting of mostly All Star/MVPs…
I can’t imagine Farhan Zaidi thinks this is a good idea?
He might not, but ownership knows they need a big fish to put butts in seats.
I truly hope the Yankees sign him and tie up their payroll. They’re screwed either way- sign him you lose payroll flexibility, don’t sign him and you lose the fan base.
“lose the fan base”? You, of all people, being a Red Sox fan, ought to know that if a player is demanding too much, if the price is too ridiculous, the true fans will understand and may even agree with it. Look at the number of players Boston has lost because they didn’t want to pay the price. Huge players to the Boston faithful, Mookie just the latest. And since NY won the AL East, and Boston finished last, you better worry about your own problems. I don’t think NY is screwed, like you said, no matter what happens.
I did realize I worded that wrong. I meant more “disappoint fans” rather than “lose the fanbase.” I just couldn’t change my post.
Mookie wasn’t the reason we finished last. 2021 should show you that.
Yankees have to sign him regardless of price. Seems that in in these deep waters his reps are trying to get the Yanks to bid against themselves.
Ridiculous!!!! Absolutely ridiculous!!!! Giving anyone a 9 year deal regardless of the money is insane. Of course no human is worth the stupid money these lads are getting paid but if someone’s willing to pay it then, yes, go for it. But over nine years for a man that’s gonna play everyday for NINE years. Don’t get me started on the DeGrom deal. Great pitcher and person but no way he’s rekindling his Cy Young years
Well, that’s just crazy talk…..
Yo said it. Crazy money, crazy length of contract.
Sadder still, only 3 or 4 teams can actually do that, but that’s the major leagues in 2022 for you. Of course, the coastal boys want it that way.
He is a FA. He should get as much as he can. The Brewers can make an offer if they want. He is a FA.
But they won’t. No one outside the Yankees, Dodgers and Giants are even discussing it.
Cmon get real. The game is dying outside your little bubble.
I’d be pleased to see the Yankees let him go at the rumoured 9/335m.
Add Nimmo, instead, for LF, going with a strong defensive OF. Pick up Rodon and baby him until the postseason. Deal an infant SS for bullpen arms likely to be of use in October.
Yankee fans will tolerate this kind of offseason.
Cashman’s too fearful to do anything, though, but lean on Hal, convincing him that it has to be Judge. It’s what a timid GM will do. Imagine, though, explaining to the team owner why you have to sign at 9/335m the same guy you told him didn’t warrant something like 7/235m last offseason. I wouldn’t want to be that guy.
Wonder if it leads to Cashman’s firing in the next few years??
Hey, if the Yankees are still farting around at the 8/$300m mark at this late date, does that suggest they aren’t entirely serious about bringing Judge back?
It’s more like Judge will circle back to the Yankees to match or exceed any best offers out that he may actually be seriously entertaining.
Hahahahaha since there are not enough interested teams they have already started with the “mystery teams” story.
Have to go on the record (no pun intended) – Judge is going into his age 31 season. There’s no way I’d pay (and pray) for 4 good seasons by paying for 9. One bad injury or a bad year out of the gate and this contract would become an instant mega-albatross. No thank you.
Sheet, David Ortiz had probably the best year of his career when he was 40. Enough players have had good years late in their careers that it’s not a guarantee Judge will flop.
Doesn’t matter if he plays for SF anyway he’ll be platooning with Joc, just the way Kapler likes it.
Its obviously many people here dont understand why teams do contracts the way they do. Of course teams will regret the end of most contracts, they’re designed to give surplus value at the front of the contract. Most contracts will end up being worse by the end. That’s expected. And its market driven. I do think Judge’s contract will be an over pay, it’ll be because enough Teams want his service. It’s based on projections, which he could exceed. He could be an overpay and still provide surplus value in the end. Salary inflation is another thing to consider, it’s why most of these contracts don’t end up gross over pays in the end, and teams structure the deals they way they do, paying more on the back of the deal for savings up front. If teams suddenly became willing to give a higher AAV, some players would be more willing to take shorter deals.
And of course a players value differs by team. Judge holds more value for SF because they don’t have one star position player and with another season or two like last year they are in danger of becoming another Oakland. Meanwhile it may hurt some Yankees fans feelings to lose Judge but you’re not going to feel like you’re watching a triple a team in his absence.
Judge has the most value to the Yankees. The Giants don’t have him now, so by not having Judge, they have lost nothing. Judge is the face of the Yankees franchise and carried the team since he was called up. Yankee fans would rather watch a triple A roster then one that was constructed around Judge without Judge there. Nobody wants to watch washed up veterans like Hicks and Donaldson.
Giants need to go all in.
I figured we’d get 5 good years out of 8, now we hear 4 crap years instead of 3. Sorry to see you go but, we’ve had enough bad contracts.
if he wants a team to guarantee 9 years pay, can he guarantee 9 years of health (he’s only had 1 healthy year)? We are aware there will be a decrease in productivity, but 5 years of health on a 9 year contract is not acceptable.
The owners needed to negotiate a 6 or 7 year cap on contracts. Horrible for baseball, fans will suffer the back end. Tigers have been waiting 4 years!!