Right-hander Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option for the 2023 season, as per The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Eflin will receive a $150K buyout and become a free agent for the first time in his career.
Since mutual options are almost never exercised by both player and team, Eflin’s decision isn’t surprising, even if his 2022 numbers were underwhelming. He tossed only 75 2/3 innings last season, as a right knee contusion led to a stint on the 60-day injured list, and Eflin’s move to the bullpen after his return in September. Building up to a full starter’s workload would have delayed Eflin’s return even longer, and he was able to contribute down the stretch (1.17 ERA in 7 2/3 IP) during the Phillies’ successful chase of a wild card berth, and then in the postseason. Eflin had a 3.38 ERA over 10 2/3 playoff innings, appearing in 10 games, and earning a save in the Phillies’ series-clinching win over the Cardinals in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.
While the bullpen stint was a nice silver lining to an injury-shortened year, Eflin and his reps at O’Connell Sports Management will certainly still market the right-hander as a solid starter. Eflin doesn’t turn 29 until April, and he has a 4.16 ERA over 531 2/3 innings with Philadelphia since the start of the 2018 season. While not a big strikeout pitcher, Eflin has posted consistently strong walk and hard-contact rates during his career, with particularly elite numbers in both categories in 2022.
Eflin’s age and track record line up well for a nice multi-year payday, though teams will also surely have some concerns about his injury history. Eflin’s IL stint this season represented the latest in a series of knee-related issues, as he previously had surgery on his right knee in 2021, and on both knees in 2016. It’s possible teams might look to include opt-out clauses, club options, or innings-based incentives clauses in any Eflin contract, but by that same token, an interested suitor might be able to full ahead by offering Eflin a more straight-forward deal with fewer conditional elements.
Depending on how the Phillies themselves feel about Eflin’s knee, a reunion could be possible. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez are slated as the top three in the Philadelphia rotation, with Bailey Falter penciled in for a larger role in 2023, and the likes of Hans Crouse and Michael Plassmeyer perhaps favored for innings until top prospects Andrew Painter and/or Mick Abel are ready for their MLB debuts. A Phillies team that looks to contend for another pennant might prefer more veteran stability in the starting mix, which could lead to some talks with Eflin, fellow free agent Kyle Gibson, or perhaps some bigger-name free agents or trade targets.
VonPurpleHayes
Led Zeflin. Great playoff performance. I always wonder what could have been if he wasn’t injury plaugued for his entire Phils tenure. Curious what an Eflin deal looks like. Can’t stay healthy, but he’s a quality backend starter.
Orioles2024
He’d be a good candidate for a base of say 8MM with start/performance bonuses that push the value up to 14-15.
User 401527550
He declined an option fir 15m. Why would he take 8?
Orioles2024
Think the option was declined on his end because It was going to be declined by PHL.
Just a formality. I’m sure he’s going to want multiple years on his next deal also. But a lower base + incentives makes sense to me.
Pads Fans
$15 million for one year vs $8 million AAV for 3-4 years.
Edp007
I like that one . Zep rules all
TheMichigan
I mean pass me by if I’m being out of pocket, but I’ve never really seen the appeal of Eflin. Is his value really just from being able to eat innings? He’s like the epitome of an average pitcher, pretty much hovers around 4.00 ERA, 95-105 ERA+. Is that really worth more than 15mm a year these days? Like he’s been positive from a bref war perspective after quite a few years in the mlb, but I have no idea why he was still a fixture in the rotation after his first two seasons.
I mean this is the kind of pitcher that helps the phillies barely scrape into the playoffs no? I just find it wild he’s betting on making more than 15mm this season.
AM21
I think he just declined before the team did.
Big whiffa
You also don’t get much for 15mil these days in mlb free agent market. Or at the grocery market
Orioles2024
@Alex
Yeah I think so too.
I don’t know if it’s a quicker payout on the buyout if he declines first. I’m thinking the team let him know they weren’t going to pick it up.
13Morgs13
I liked him more as a RP then I did a SP. His sinker when he is on(is a great pitch)
AM21
I figure him for a “prove it” contract at best.
The Kaiser
He’s trash. I wouldn’t give him more then 5 million
fre5hwind
Dang
Fooque2
Never turned the corner……he has decent stuff, just can`t stay healthy
Edp007
No Eflin way he’s worth 15 million
bleedinblue 2
I think he should have taken the $15M (assuming the Phils pick up the option, whoch I don’t thonk they would). I doubt he get anything close to that in free agency. Could be a good deal for s team if he stays healthy though.
DarkSide830
I really hope Eflin can put it together someday. That said, I think it was time to move on.
cpdpoet
Strange case for sure, does he take a prove it deal or opt for maybe a 3 yr 30-33 million deal profiling as a 4/5 type…..? Such a deal still gives him another shot at 32?
Eflin will turn 29 before opening day and has #3 type stuff…..Either way, I feel his Phillies days are over…..
Wish him well and makes the best deal for his future…
cpdpoet
Rest of the article just dropped…..
A HEARTY NO on a Gibson reunion. Phillies are a first division team and Gibson, who puts the innings in, is not. At 35 he should still garner a 2-3 yr deal while getting his 10yrs in service….
Good guy, took the ball almost every 5th day. ty sir….
JockStrap
Eflin isnt no Efron
JoeBrady
I’m a little surprised at this. He’s not without value, but how much can he get in a 3-year deal? $30M/3? If he took the $15M this year, he would only be out of pocket $15M/2, with some definite upside.
Or, more Machiavellian, if he knew that the Phillies were going to decline his services, then his declination looks a bit stronger.
That said, it’s possible for him to be a decent #3, IF he can throw 160 innings. His inability to do so thus far might soften up the market. This has Bloom written all over it.
VonPurpleHayes
As someone mentioned above, this was just a formality. The Phillies were 100% going to decline it. He’s not necessarily looking for more money. He just decline before the Phillies did. He spoke pretty openly about it after the WS loss.
Pads Fans
I don’t think he will get even that much. 3/24 or 4/30 with options and escalators for IP is my guess.
VonPurpleHayes
Yup. Seems right.
PipptyPoppitygivemetheZoppity
Future red sock lol
cpdpoet
A Pivetta / Eflin reunion would be too delicious….
iH8PaperStraws
Injury prone. Low strike out guy. He’ll be on the Cardinal’s IL next year.
longines64
Zach will not be back…
Pads Fans
While Eflin will certainly get a new deal that is larger than the $15 million he had left for 2023, I don’t see him getting substantially more than the $5.7 million he made in 2022.
He didn’t pitch enough, wasn’t effective enough as a starter, and ended up with a 4.04 ERA
Maybe a 4 year, $30 million deal? That is a huge difference in total dollars, but just $1.8 million more in AAV.
JoeBrady
That would be awfully tempting for the RS.
He threw 163 innings in 2019, and a similar number prorated in 2020. Down to 105 in 2021, but I don’t know the injury. In 2022, he had a contusion. You’d have to do a deep-dive into his medicals, but $30M/4 is low enough that, even if you put him in the BP, you’d probably do okay.
htbnm57
He has had knee issues his whole life.
SportsFan0000
He just did Dombrowski and the Phillies a favor.
Better options are available.
10centBeerNight
This gentleman rebuilt his stock somewhat and will have suitors
tedtheodorelogan
Unfortunately him or someone similar will be who the Giants replace Rodon with instead of paying Rodon.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Perfect for Yankees in 2024, then Effross can replace Eflin.
Margeschottme
He really ought to give the bullpen a serious chance with his health issues
meatmachine
Crouse and Plassmeyer won’t sniff the rotation for this team, lol.